100 Probability

Chapter

13 Probability

INTRODUCTION

Random Experiment :
It is an experiment which if conducted repeatedly under homogeneous
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condition does not give the same result.

The total number of possible outcomes of an experiment in any trial
is known as the exhaustive number of events.
For example
(i) In throwing a die, the exhaustive number of cases is 6 since any
one of the six faces marked with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 may come
uppermost.
(ii) In tossing a coin, the exhaustive number of cases is 2, since
either head or tail may turn over.
(iii) If a pair of dice is thrown, then the exhaustive number of cases
is 6 × 6 = 36
(iv) In drawing four cards from a well-shuffled pack of cards, the
exhaustive number of cases is 52C4.
Events are said to be mutually exclusive if no two or more of them
can occur simultaneously in the same trial.
For example,
(i) In tossing of a coin the events head (H) and tail (T) are mutually
exclusive.
(ii) In throwing of a die all the six faces are mutually exclusive.
(iii) In throwing of two dice, the events of the face marked 5
appearing on one die and face 5 (or other) appearing on the
other are not mutually exclusive.
Outcomes of a trial are equally likely if there is no reason for an
event to occur in preference to any other event or if the chances of
their happening are equal.
For example,
(i) In throwing of an unbiased die, all the six faces are equally
likely to occur.

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 Probability 101
(ii) In drawing a card from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards, there
are 52 equally likely possible outcomes.
The favourable cases to an event are the outcomes, which entail the
happening of an event.
For example,
(i) In the tossing of a die, the number of cases which are favourable
to the “ appearance of a multiple of 3” is 2, viz, 3 and 6.
(ii) In drawing two cards from a pack, the number of cases favourable
to "drawing 2 aces” is 4C2.
(iii) In throwing of two dice, the number of cases favourable to
“getting 8 as the sum” is 5, : (2, 6), (6, 2), (4, 4), (3, 5) (5, 3).
Events are said to be independent if the happening (or non-
happening) of one event is not affected by the happening or non-
happening of others.
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CLASSICAL DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY

If there are n-mutually exclusive, exhaustive and equally likely outcomes
to a random experiment and ‘m’ of them are favourable to an event A, then
the probability of happening of A is denoted by P (A) and is defined by
m
P(A) = .
n

No. of elementary events favourable to A

P (A) =
Total no. of equally likely elementary events
m
Obviously, 0 £ m £ n , therefore 0 £ £ 1 so that 0 £ P(A) £ 1.
n
P(A) can never be negative.
Since, the number of cases in which the event A will not happen is ‘n
– m’, then the probability P ( A ) of not happening of A is given by
n-m m
P(A) = = 1 - = 1 - P(A)
n n

Þ P(A) + P(A) = 1
The ODDS IN FAVOUR of occurrence of A are given by
m : (n – m) or P(A) : P (A )
The ODDS AGAINST the occurrence of A are given by
(n – m) : m or P (A ) : P (A).

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 102 Probability

ALGEBRA OF EVENTS
Let A and B be two events related to a random experiment. We define
(i) The event “A or B” denoted by “A È B”, which occurs when A
or B or both occur. Thus,
P(A È B) = Probability that at least one of the events occur
(ii) The event “A and B”, denoted by " A Ç B" , which occurs when
A and B both occur. Thus,
P(A Ç B) = Probability of simultaneous occurrence of A and B.
(iii) The event “ Not - A” denoted by A , which occurs when and
only when A does not occur. Thus
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P(A ) = Probability of non-occurrence of the event A.

(iv) A Ç B denotes the “ non-occurrence of both A and B”.
(v) “A Ì B” denotes the “ occurrence of A implies the occurrence
of B”.
For example :
Consider a single throw of die and following two events
A = the number is even = {2, 4, 6}
B = the number is a multiple of 3 = {3, 6}
4 2 1
Then P (A È B) = = , P ( A Ç B) =
6 3 6
1 2 1
P (A ) = , P ( A Ç B ) = P(A È B) =1 - = .
2 3 3

ADDITION THEOREM ON PROBABILITY

1. ADDITION THEOREM : If A and B are two events associated with
a random experiment, then
P(A È B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A Ç B)
2. ADDITION THEOREM FOR THREE EVENTS : If A, B, C are three
events associated with a random experiment, then
P(A È B È C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A Ç B)
- P(B Ç C) - P(A Ç C) + P(A Ç B Ç C)
3. If A and B are two mutually exclusive events and the probability of
their occurence are P(A) and P(B) respectively, then probability of
either A or B occuring is given by

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 Probability 103
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Þ P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B)

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Let A and B be two events associated with a random experiment. Then
æAö
Pç ÷ , represents the conditional probability of occurrence of A relative
èBø
to B.
æ A ö P(A Ç B) æ B ö P(A Ç B)
Also, P ç ÷ = and P ç ÷ =
è Bø P(B) è Aø P(A)
For example :
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Suppose a bag contains 5 white and 4 red balls. Two balls are drawn one
after the other without replacement. If A denotes the event “drawing a
white ball in the first draw” and B denotes the event “drawing a red ball in
the second draw”.
P (B/A) = Probability of drawing a red ball in second draw when it is known

that a white ball has already been drawn in the first draw = 4 = 1
8 2
Obviously, P (A/B) is meaning less in this problem.

MULTIPLICATION THEOREM
If A and B are two events, then
P(A Ç B) = P (A) P (B/A), if P (A) > 0
= P (B) P (A/B) if P (B) > 0
From this theorem we get
P(A Ç B) P(A Ç B)
P( B / A) = and P(A / B) =
P( A) P(B)
For example :
Consider an experiment of throwing a pair of dice. Let A denotes the event
“ the sum of the point is 8” and B event “ there is an even number on first
die”
Then A = {(2, 6), (6, 2), (3, 5), (5, 3), (4, 4)},
B = {(2, 1), (2, 2), ......., (2, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2),.....
(4, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2),....(6, 6)}
5 18 1 3 1
P (A ) = , P (B) = = , P ( A Ç B) = =
36 36 2 36 12

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 104 Probability
Now, P(A/B) = Prob. of occurrence of A when B has already occurred =
prob. of getting 8 as the sum, when there is an even number on the first die
3 1 3
= = and similarly P(B / A) = .
18 6 5
INDEPENDENCE
An event B is said to be independent of an event A if the probability
that B occurs is not influenced by whether A has or has not occurred.
For two independent events A and B.
P(A Ç B) = P(A) P(B)
Event A1, A2, ........An are independent if
(i) P(A i Ç A j ) = P(A i ) P (A j ) for all i, j, i ¹ j, That is, the
events are pairwise independent.
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(ii) The probability of simultaneous occurrence of (any) finite number

of them is equal to the product of their separate probabilities,
that is, they are mutually independent.
For example :
Let a pair of fair coin be tossed, here S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
A = heads on the first coin = {HH, HT}
B = heads on the second coin = {TH, HH}
C = heads on exactly one coin = {HT, TH}
2 1
Then P (A) = P(B) = P (C) = = and
4 2
1
P(A Ç B) = P ({HH}) = = P(A) P (B)
4
1
P(B Ç C) = P ({TH}) = = P(B) P (C)
4
1
P(A Ç C) = P ({HT}) = = P(A) P (C)
4
Hence the events are pairwise independent.
Also P(A Ç B Ç C) = P(f) = 0 ¹ P(A)P(B)P (C)
Hence, the events A, B, C are not mutually independent.

ebooks Reference Page No.

Solved Examples – S-54-57

Exercises with Hints & Solutions – E-99-106

Chapter Test – 23-24

Past Solved Papers

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