Table of Contents

1.Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………..2

2. The Methods for Design Discharge Estimation……………………………….……….…….3

2.1.Resulting from design storm……………………………..............................………………4

2.2.Resulting from snow melt…………………………………………………..............………5

3. Problem 1: Analysis of design discharges……………………………………………...……6

4. Problem 2: Estimation of design floods…………………………………………………...…9

5. Problem 3 : Estimation of design floods………………………………………………….....15

2
 1. Introduction
Design discharge estimation is a critical aspect of hydraulic engineering, particularly in the
design of various hydraulic structures like dams, bridges, culverts, and stormwater management
systems. Estimating the design discharge involves predicting the maximum expected flow rate
that a watercourse or river may experience under certain conditions, such as extreme weather
events or flood.

2. The Methods for Design Discharge Estimation

Conceptually the methods are based on

a) From actual data

Stream flow records (yearly peak discharges) are available for the desired recurrence interval
or more. Design discharge will be the computed flood for the desired recurrence interval.

b) Statistical methods
Stream flow records exist for less than the desired recurrence interval but sufficient for the
statistical analysis. Computed statistically for the desired recurrence interval.

c) Unit hydrograph
A hydrograph is graph showing the discharge versus time at a specific point in river / channel.

The records of floods are not of sufficient length to permit reliable statistical analysis but where,
-Rainfall pattern & intensity records are available for sufficient length of time
- Where it is feasible to carry out at least limited observations of rainfall & discharge to develop
unit hydrograph based on such observations

The design discharge for desired recurrence interval is computed using above unit hydrograph
developed and applying appropriate design storm

d) Synthetic hydrograph
e) Other methods (stage-discharge relationship)

3
Manning's formula is perhaps the most widely used empirical equation for estimating discharge
since it relies solely on channel characteristics that are easily measured. Manning's formula is:

𝟏
𝑸= × 𝑹𝟐/𝟑 × 𝑺𝟏/𝟐 × 𝑨
𝒏
where: Q = discharge (m3/s)
A = cross sectional area of the stream (m²)
R = hydraulic radius (m), (area/wetted perimeter of the channel)
S = slope of the water surface
n = roughness coefficient of the channel.

Combining continuous stage data with manual discharge measurements to form a rating curve
will allow discharge data to be extrapolated to form a longer time series. Stream discharge can
be simply calculated using the equation:

Q=VA

where: Q is the stream discharge, V is the stream velocity, and A is the cross-sectional area of
the channel perpendicular to the predominant flow direction

2.1. Resulting from design storm

Estimating design discharge resulting from a design storm involves predicting the expected
peak flow rates or discharge from rainfall events of specific durations and intensities.

 Rational Method
The Rational Method, as an empirical method, estimates peak flow from rainfall intensity, area
and runoff coefficients. It is widely used in small urban or rural watersheds with homogeneous
land use.

When stream flow records are not available, peak discharge can be estimated by the "rational"
method or formula and is recommended for use on channels draining less than 80 hectares (200
acres):

4
 Q = 0.278 C i A
Q = peak discharge, (m3/s), C= runoff coefficient, depends upon nature of
where:
soil, soil cover and location of catchment
i = rainfall intensity (mm/hr) for a critical time period
A = drainage area (km²)

 Time-Area Method
Time-area method is based on the concept of time-area histogram, i.e. a histogram of
contributing catchment subareas (segmentations of the catchment). To develop a time-area
histogram, the catchment's time of concentration is divided into a number of time intervals
based on the hydrology time step.

 Unit Hydrograph
Unit hydrograph techniques use pre-determined hydrographs based on effective rainfall and
watershed characteristics. These hydrographs are applied to the rainfall event, considering the
time distribution of the storm to estimate resulting discharge.

 Probabilistic Methods
These methods consider the probability distributions of extreme events based on statistical
analysis of historical flow data. They use frequency analysis to estimate discharge for a given
return period (e.g., 100-year flood). Methods like the Gumbel distribution or Log-Pearson Type
III distribution are commonly employed in analysis.

2.2. Resulting from snow melt

Any drainage installation is sized according to the probability of occurrence of an expected
peak discharge during the design life of the installation. This, of course, is related to the intensity
and duration of rainfall events occurring not only in the direct vicinity of the structure, but also
upstream of the structure. In snow zones, peak discharge may be the result of an intense
warming period causing rapid melting of the snowpack.
Estimating design discharge resulting from snowmelt involves assessing the potential runoff
generated from melting snow under various conditions. The estimation process considers
factors like snowpack characteristics, temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation.

5
  Snowmelt Hydrographs
 Energy Balance Methods
These methods consider the energy balance between incoming radiation, snowpack absorption,
and heat exchange to estimate snowmelt. They take into account factors such as solar radiation,
air temperature, wind speed, and snow cover properties to determine the energy available for
melting snow.

3. Problem 1: Analysis of design discharges

- Correlation Analysis Area-2 Slope-2 Rainfall-2 forest-2

- - -
Correalaton 0,9418 0,09921 0,4013499 0,09948
Area- Slope- Rainfall- forest-
10 10 10 10
- - -
Correalaton 0,9279 0,06807 0,4414134 0,06319
Area- Slope- Rainfall- forest-
100 100 100 100
- - -
Correalaton 0,8471 0,05378 0,4446166 0,06676

As we can see from the tables, there is a very strong correlation relationship between area and
peak discharge. Rainfall has a medium correlation relationship; channel slope and forest cover
have very weak correlation relationship.
Also, we can see that as the return period increases, the correlation relationship decreases.
- Correlation Analysis with Logarithms

Area-2 Slope-2 Rainfall-2 forest-2 If we do the correlation analysis with

Correalaton 0,85819 0,19961 -0,54841 -0,39006 the logarithms of the data, we can
Area-10 Slope-10 Rainfall-10 forest-10
understand that the correlation values
Correalaton 0,82852 0,2221 -0,54025 -0,35915
Area- Slope- Rainfall- forest- get closer to medium.
100 100 100 100
Correalaton 0,75719 0,2247 -0,48983 -0,31982

6
 - Linear Regression Analysis

Area-Q2 Slope-Q2
1000 1000
800 800
600 600

400 400

200 200
0
0
0 200 400 600 800
0 200 400 600 800

Rainfall-Q2 forest-Q2
1000 250
800 200
600 150
400 100
200 50
0 0
0 200 400 600 800 0 20 40 60 80 100

Area-Q10 Slope-Q10
1000 1000
800 800
600 600
400 400
200 200
0 0
0 200 400 600 800 0 200 400 600 800

Rainfall-Q10 forest-Q10
1000 1000
800 800
600 600
400 400

200 200

0 0
0 200 400 600 800 0 200 400 600 800

7
 Area-Q100 Slope-Q100
900 800
800 700
700 600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200 200

100 100

0 0
0 200 400 600 800 0 0.01 0.02 0.03

Raınfall-Q100 Forest-Q100
800 800

700 700

600 600

500 500

400 400

300 300

200 200

100 100

0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100

8
 4. Problem 2: Estimation of design floods

Gumbel’s Distribution is widely used for probability distribution of extreme values in

hydrologic studies for prediction of flood peaks, maximum rainfall etc.

Where x is magnitude of flood of some given probability (P) or return period

𝐱 𝐓 = 𝐱 + 𝐊 × 𝛔𝐧 𝟏

∑
x : the mean of floods on record x =

σ: standard deviation σ= ( 𝑥 − 𝑥̅ )

K: frequency factor K=

y : Gumbel’s reduced variate y = − ln× ln

y : a reduced mean, a function of sample size N (from Table-1), for N∞ ; y =0.577
S : reduced standard deviation, a function of sample size N (from Table-2), for N∞; S =
1.283
T: recurrence interval, return period
Annual floods recorded on a creek are given in Table 3 below. Assuming that annual floods
follow the Gumbel distribution, floods will be predicted for T = 5, 10, 25, 100, 500 years.

9
Table 3. Annual recorded floods
Year Q m3/s According to given data,
1929 8750
1930 15500
1931 4060 Sample Size N = 38
1939 6300
1940 3130 Mean x = 6368.58
1941 4160
1942 6700 Standard Deviation σ = 4373.9
1943 22400
1944 3880
1945 8050
1946 4020
1947 1600
1948 4460
1949 4230
1950 3010
1951 9150
1952 5100
1953 9820
1954 6200
1955 10700
1956 3880
1957 3420
1958 3240
1959 6800
1960 3740
1961 4700
1962 4380
1963 5190
1964 3960
1965 5600
1966 4670
1967 7080
1968 4640
1969 536
1970 6680
1971 8360
1972 18700
1973 5210

10
From the tables, for 38 sample size 𝐲𝐧 = 0.5424 and 𝐒𝐧 = 1.1363

 T= 5 years

y : Gumbel’s reduced variate y = − ln× ln = 1.49994

. .
K: frequency factor K= = .
= 0.84268

x = 6368.58 + 0.84268 × 4373.9 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟓𝟒. 𝟑𝟗 𝒎𝟑 /𝐬

 T= 10 years

y : Gumbel’s reduced variate y = − ln× ln = 2.25037

. .
K: frequency factor K= = .
= 1.5031

11
x = 6368.58 + 1.5031 × 4373.9 = 𝟏𝟐𝟗𝟒𝟐. 𝟗𝟕 𝒎𝟑 /𝐬

 T=25 years

y : Gumbel’s reduced variate y = − ln× ln = 3.19853

. .
K: frequency factor K= = .
= 2.33753

x = 6368.58 + 2.33753 × 4373.9 = 𝟏𝟔𝟓𝟗𝟐. 𝟕 𝒎𝟑 /𝐬

 T=100 years

y : Gumbel’s reduced variate y = − ln× ln = 4.60015

. .
K: frequency factor K= = .
= 3.57102

x = 6368.58 + 3.57102 × 4373.9 = 𝟐𝟏𝟗𝟖𝟕. 𝟒𝟕 𝒎𝟑 /𝐬

 T=500 years

y : Gumbel’s reduced variate y = − ln× ln = 6.21361

. .
K: frequency factor K= = .
= 4.99094

x = 6368.58 + 4.99094 × 4373.9 = 𝟐𝟖𝟏𝟗𝟖. 𝟒𝟕 𝒎𝟑 /𝐬

12
 Estimated Floods for T=5, T=10, T=25, T=100, T=500
30000

25000

20000
xt m3/s

15000

10000

5000

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

yt

In order to provide an estimate of return period for a given discharge or vice versa, the observed
data is fitted with a theoretical distribution using a cumulative density function (CDF). This
helps the users in analyzing the flood frequency curve.

CDF for 150 years

25000

20000
Discharge m3/s

15000

10000

5000

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Year

13
To calculate the design discharge:
𝐐= 𝐂×𝐢 ×𝐀
C: the runoff coefficient
i: the rainfall intensity (m/hr)
A: discharge area (m2)

C= 0.95,
i= 10 cm/hr = 0.1 m/hr
A = 9700 m2
m m
Q = 0.95 × 0.1 × 9700 m = 921.5 = 0.25597 m /s
hr h

5. Problem 3: Estimation of design floods

There are many methods for solving the problem. These are Rational Method, Cook Method,
Hydrograph Method, and Graphical Methods. In addition to these methods, there are also
formulas that countries have found for their own regions, such as Kresnik Formula, Hofbauer
Formula, Giandotti Formula, Possenti Formula, etc.
However, we will use the rational method among these formulas and methods.

The general procedure for determining peak discharge with the Rational Formula is:

Step 1 Determine the drainage area.

Step 2 Determine the runoff coefficient, C, for the type of soil/cover in the drainage area. If
land use and soil cover are homogeneous over the drainage area, a C value can be determined
from the following tables. If there are multiple soil cover conditions, a weighted average must
be performed.
Step 3 Determine the rainfall intensity averaging time, Tc, in minutes for the drainage area
(time required for water to flow from the hydraulically most distant point of that tributary
watershed which produces the greatest discharge to the point of design).
Step 4 Determine the Rainfall Intensity Factor, i, for the selected design storm. This is done by
using the Rainfall Intensity - Frequency - Duration charts. These hydrologic charts should be
used for the location to be evaluated as they are continuously updated with every new rain event
and considered to be most accurate than any other source. Select the chart for the locality closest

14
to the project site. Enter the "Duration" axis of the chart with the calculated time of
concentration, Tc. Move vertically until you intersect the curve of the appropriate design storm;
then move horizontally to read the Rainfall Intensity Factor, i, in inches per hour.
Step 5 Determine the peak discharge (Q - in cubic feet per second) from equation above.

𝐐= 𝐂×𝐢 ×𝐀

Land Use C A(m2) i (m/s) Q (m3/s)

Open Space 0,19 57000 1,94x105 0,21
Forest 0,14 47000 1,94x105 0,13
Residental 0,32 36000 1,94x105 0,22
(1/2 acre)
Light 0,89 17000 1,94x105 0,29
Commercial
Streets 0,82 16000 1,94x105 0,26

15
 REFERENCES

1. United States Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service Part

630 Hydrology National Engineering Handbook

2. Xixi Wang , Tingxi Liu , Shiyou Shang , Dawen Yang & Assefa M. Melesse (2010) E

stimation of design discharge for an ungauged overflow-receiving watershed using one-

dimensional hydrodynamic model, International Journal of River Basin

Management, 8:1, 79-92, doi: 10.1080/15715121003714886

3. Beschta, R. L. 1981. Streamflow estimates in culverts. Oregon State University, Forest

Researph Laboratory, Res. Note. 67.

4. Gravelle, Richard. Discharge Estimation: Techniques and Equipment. Geomorphological

Techniques, Chap. 3, Sec. 3.5 (2015)

5. ASCE, 1992 and Rossmiller, 1980 Appendix A-1: Runoff Peak Discharge Calculations

6. The Mcgraw Hiill Companies Chapter 7 Floods

16