Marsteintredet Malamud 2019 Coup With Adjectives Conceptual Stretching or Innovation in Comparative Research
Marsteintredet Malamud 2019 Coup With Adjectives Conceptual Stretching or Innovation in Comparative Research
Marsteintredet Malamud 2019 Coup With Adjectives Conceptual Stretching or Innovation in Comparative Research
research-article2019
PSX0010.1177/0032321719888857Political StudiesMarsteintredet and Malamud
Article
Political Studies
Abstract
Was Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff victim of a coup or removed through a legal process of
impeachment? The heated debate on the 2016 ousting of Brazil’s president testifies to the growing
controversy around the definition of coups. Focusing on Latin America, we show that the use of
coups with adjectives have become more frequent in public and scholarly debates. Occurring at
a time when coups are becoming rarer, we argue that this development is linked to prevalence-
induced concept change, meaning that when instances of a concept become less prevalent, the
understanding of the concept expands. The meaning of coups has expanded through a proliferation
of adjectives. Coups with adjectives are not new, but recent usage changes the concept from a
classic to a family resemblance structure. Although this strategy can avoid stretching and increase
differentiation, we urge caution and warn against harmful consequences, whether conceptual,
theoretical, or practical.
Keywords
coup d’état, impeachment, concept formation, conceptual stretching, Latin America
“In Europe, with its more limited experiences of such matters, the expression
coup d’état is not specifically distinguished from say, a coup de force, and we use the
expressions, ‘military revolt’, ‘mutiny’, ‘rebellion’, ‘coup’, ‘revolution’
interchangeably without asking what precisely has happened. Latin Americans,
with their closer acquaintanceship with the phenomenon, distinguish.”
S.E. Finer (1962: 154)
Corresponding author:
Leiv Marsteintredet, University of Bergen, Christies gate 15, Bergen 5020, Norway.
Email: [email protected]
Marsteintredet and Malamud 1015
Introduction
Coups d’état —however defined—have traditionally been regarded as the greatest
threat to the survival of democracy. The sudden, often military-backed removal of the
government customarily meant the end of a democratic regime. Today, however, despite
a broad consensus that there is a global democratic recession and that liberal demo-
cratic values are threatened (Diamond, 2015a; Inglehart and Norris, 2016; Lührmann
and Lindberg, 2019; Mechokva et al., 2017), there are fewer classical coups than ever,
whether globally or in Latin America (Belkin and Schofer, 2005; Derpanopoulos et al.,
2016; Djuve et al., 2019; McGowan, 2003; Marinov and Goemans, 2014; Powell and
Thyne, 2011; Singh, 2014). In fact, consolidated democracies have grown almost
immune to them (Svolik, 2015). Yet, we witness a puzzling increase in the use of the
term (whether coup d’état or golpe de estado, as in Spanish and Portuguese), frequently
combined with a qualifying adjective, in both academic and non-academic texts.1 In
this article, we analyze why coup with adjectives are on the rise at a time that coups
occur less frequently, and what the analytical and conceptual consequences of this
development are.
“Coups with adjectives” are not a new phenomenon. Terms like “military coup” or
“self-coup” (autogolpe) have been in regular use within and outside academia for decades
(Cameron, 1998; Fitch, 1977). However, their use has mushroomed in recent decades,
particularly in Latin America. We found evidence of the recent invention or adaptation of
qualifiers such as “soft” (Pitts et al., 2016), “parliamentary” (Santos and Guarneri, 2016),
“presidential” or “democratic” (Varol, 2017), “constitutional” (Helmke, 2017; Yarwood,
2016), “market” or “neo-liberal” (Mauceri, 1995), “electoral” (Hellinger, 2005), “slow-
motion” (Polga Hecimovich et al., 2017), “civil society” (Encarnación, 2002), and “judi-
cial” (Yavuz and Koç, 2016). Many of these terms are piled together in Gentili’s (2016)
volume on the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff in Brazil. Although Bello
(2016) and Keating (2012) register the use of coups with adjectives outside academia, the
list above shows that their usage is not restricted to politicians or activists who have
incentives to use real or invented coup-plots to implement emergency rule, arrest opposi-
tion leaders, clean out the bureaucracy, or brand the opposition as undemocratic.
We link the rise of “coup with adjectives” to the phenomenon of “prevalence-induced
concept change” (Levari et al., 2018): when instances of a concept become less prevalent,
the understanding of the concept expands to cover cases it previously excluded. Following
Collier and Levitsky (1997), we argue that while earlier uses of coup with adjectives went
down the ladder of generality or abstraction (increasing differentiation), new adjectives
make up diminished or dismissive subtypes in which some constitutive elements of the
concept are missing or only partially present. The examples of contemporary coups with
adjectives mentioned earlier have in common that they do not satisfy all the criteria for
the commonly accepted definition of a coup: the illegal overthrow of the government by
other state actors. As a consequence, whereas a coup was formerly understood as a clas-
sical concept, the new usage approaches it as a family resemblance concept (Collier and
Mahon, 1993; Goertz, 2006).
The choice of how to conceptualize a coup is not to be taken lightly since it carries
normative, analytical, and political implications. In particular, in today’s democracies
there is a conceptual peril of conflating a coup with legal tactics for government replace-
ment. Identifying a phenomenon as an “impeachment” as opposed to a “coup” involves
widely different interpretations, moral judgments, and consequences, as the latter could
trigger international sanctions whereas the former should not. Therefore, academics as
1016 Political Studies 68(4)
well as politicians and pundits should proceed with care when choosing concepts to
define as consequential an event as the removal of a president.
The qualitative material for this article is based on a review of the academic literature
on coups in general and in Latin America in particular, and on close reading of social
media and news related to Latin American politics, our area of research. To substantiate
our claim of an increased use of coups with adjectives, we use quantitative evidence from
Google Books’ English and Spanish corpora for the period 1800–2008 with the Ngram
Viewer (2013) tool.2 Furthermore, we mapped the academic use of coups using the Social
Science Citation Index for English terms, and SciELO (Scientific Electronic Library
Online) citation index for Spanish and Portuguese terms.3 We compare the use of the coup
concept with coup data from Powell and Thyne (2011) and Przeworski et al. (2013).
In the next section, we present empirical evidence to sustain our argument about the
proliferation of the term accompanied by a variety of adjectives, and substantiate our puz-
zle: why does this occur during a period when actual coups in the world decline? In order
to disentangle the puzzle, we then discuss the coup concept, its constitutive elements and
structure, before we discuss strategies to avoid conceptual stretching, and show through
examples that the current usage of coups with adjectives is shifting the concept structure
from a classical to a family resemblance type. We argue that this shift can be understood
as special form of prevalence-induced concept change. Finally, we discuss the implica-
tions and whether conceptual innovation has resulted in conceptual stretching or improved
the utility of the term. Although we draw our examples mostly from Latin America, the
discussion is expected to hold general validity.
Figure 3. The Use of Coup d’état and Golpe de estado in Academic Articles.
Unit of observation is years. Results from search of “coup d’état” as topic in Social Science Citation Index
(N-258), and “golpe de estado” as topic in the SciELO citation index (N-187). Both available through Clari-
vate Analytics’ Web of Science (v. 5.30). Share calculated as number of articles per year with “coup d’état”
as topic divided by number of articles per year with “political science” as topic (N-3592). The Social Science
Citation Index goes back to 1956. SciELO has records from 1997.
Table 1. Correlations actual coups and attempts and mentions in Google Books.
Cells show correlation coefficients, significance level in parenthesis. “Coup d’état,” “Coup with adjectives,”
“Golpe de Estado,” and “Golpe con adjetivos” from Google Books, observations with 1 year lag.
correlated with actual coup attempts (Table 1). Notably, a similar decline is not present in
the use of “golpe de estado,” which increases steadily from the 1950s and, with exception
of a dip in the years prior to 2000, ends with the highest registered score in 2008. Although
the Google books database covers academic literature, it also includes fiction and thus
tells us little of the popularity and content of academic studies of coups. Looking only at
academic articles in the Social Science Citation Index and SciELO (Figure 3), we find
signs that studies of coups have become more frequent (solid and dotted lines), especially
since the early 2000s. As academic production has increased overall, we control by
Marsteintredet and Malamud 1019
mapping English language articles with “coup d’état” as topic as share of articles with
“political science” as topic (dashed line).4 The results show that the study of coups has
also increased from the early 2000s as a share of all articles in the discipline, even though
it peaked in the 1990s. Recent popularity may be connected to the growth of available
datasets on coups (cited earlier), and the recent surge of studies of authoritarian regimes
and leadership succession.
Our main interest, however, is with coups with adjectives. We searched Google Books
for the above-mentioned coups with adjectives in English and Spanish, and found the fol-
lowing: in English there is no decline of their use as the number of coups declined, and in
Spanish their use has expanded tremendously at the same time as the number of coups
declined (Figure 4).
Figure 4 displays the English and Spanish usage of coups with adjectives. Comparing
Figures 2 and 4, we see that while the use of coup d’état has decreased with the numbers
of coups, there is no dip in the use of coups with adjectives.5 Furthermore, while the men-
tion of coup d’état is positively and significantly correlated with actual coup attempts, the
use of coup with adjectives is not after 1949 (Table 1). In Spanish, however, coups with
adjectives were an extremely rare phenomenon until the 1960, but have consistently been
mentioned in books since the 1970s confirming that it is indeed a more recent phenome-
non. Figure 5 visualizes the association between the usage of coup d’état, coups with
adjectives in English and Spanish, and actual coups since the early 1800s. With exception
1020 Political Studies 68(4)
for the usage of the root term in English, the correlation between actual coups and usage
of the term with or without adjectives seem to break down exactly when the number of
coups decline (see also Table 1).
Table 1 shows correlations between mentions of coups with or without adjectives in
English and Spanish in Google Books and actual coups and coup attempts as measured by
Powell and Thyne (2011) and Przeworski et al. (2013). When looking at the full period
from 1804, all variants of coups in Google Books are positively correlated with actual
coups, and mentions of “coup d’état” is strongly and significantly so. Since 1949, when
Powell and Thyne’s data start, however, we observe that coups with adjectives in Spanish
show a negative and significant correlation with coups and attempts, while for coups with
adjectives in English or coups in Spanish, the correlation is either negative or zero and
non-significant. Table 1 also confirms that the decoupling or negative correlation between
coups with adjectives in English and Spanish and real coups and attempts, are recent
phenomena. In sum, we find support for our initial observation that there is an increase in
the use of coups with adjectives, especially in Spanish, and that several of the adjectives
are of new date.
What accounts for the increase in the use of coups with adjectives at a time when
coups are declining? First, for Latin America we believe it is related to two key develop-
ments. Second, and most importantly, we argue that it is related to a change in the concept
structure of the term coup, which constitutes a special type of prevalence-induced concept
change (Levari et al., 2018).
Two developments in Latin America help explain the rise of coups with adjectives in
particular in the Spanish language. One is the new political instability, which refers to the
many cases of early presidential termination by impeachment (Pérez-Liñán, 2007), or
Marsteintredet and Malamud 1021
through resignation after massive protests (Hochstetler, 2006). Not only was the use of
impeachment, or impeachment-like procedures, new to the region, it was also new that
democracy tended to survive the fall of presidents. Second, the revival seems linked, but
is not exclusive, to the wave of leftist regimes in the region and the fall of presidents of
the left. While the phenomenon Pérez-Liñán and Hochstetler analyzed mainly occurred
with neoliberal presidents, a recent development is that left-leaning presidents have begun
to fall (Presidents Rousseff in Brazil 2016, Lugo in Paraguay 2012, and Zelaya in
Honduras 2009) or to be questioned for their democratic merits (Presidents Maduro in
Venezuela and Ortega in Nicaragua). In a region where United States meddling and coups
directed against the left were trademark, the fall of presidents of the left has revived bad
memories.6 Yet, this explanation is incomplete, unless we can explain how events for-
merly not recognized as coups are now labeled as coups with adjectives.
Our key hypothesis is linked to prevalence-induced concept change, or concept creep-
ing, which is a theory from psychology that holds that “when instances of a concept
becomes less prevalent, the concept may expand to include instances it previously
excluded” (Levari et al., 2018: 1465). Over a series of experiments, Levari et al. showed
how the reduced prevalence of a phenomenon made the understanding of the phenome-
non expand so that the participants over-reported its occurrence. This explains why even
though modern societies have made progress in fighting poverty, hunger, and infectious
diseases, people still believe the world is going in the wrong direction (Levari et al.,
2018: 1465). We contend that the same takes place with coups; as they become less fre-
quent and less dangerous to democracy, observers expand their understanding of what a
coup is. To be sure, our findings are not strictly consistent with this theory, since it is the
use of coups with adjectives, and not the use of the term coup alone, which has increased.
This finding is even more puzzling since adding adjectives to a classical concept, such
as a coup, reduces its extension (coverage) by increasing its intension (meaning) (Collier
and Mahon, 1993; Sartori, 1970). To make sense of why the use of coups with adjectives
increases in a period when actual coups are at historical lows, we argue in the remainder
that the prevalence-induced concept change has not altered the constitutive elements of
a coup, or what a coup is, but rather changed the concept structure of coups from classi-
cal to a family resemblance type, thereby reducing the threshold for an instance to qual-
ify as a coup.
What is a Coup?
A coup is not an essentially contested concept like democracy or populism (Gallie, 1956;
Mudde, 2004). Even though disagreement exists, there is a relatively broad academic
consensus on what constitutes a coup. The term, however, is much used outside academia,
and controversial because it is politically loaded and holds normative and practical impli-
cations. The United States, for instance, is bound to suspend foreign aid if a recipient
experiences a coup, and the European Union upholds similar clauses (Marinov and
Goemans, 2014: 805). In Latin America, the Inter-American Democratic Charter of the
Organization of American States calls for immediate action in case of a coup (“unconsti-
tutional interruption”), and foresees the potential suspension of the member state in ques-
tion (see, OAS, 2001: arts. 19–21). In addition, a distressed president has incentives to
brand his belligerent opposition as coup-mongers, while the opposition would like to
cloak themselves in innocence as fighters for freedom and democracy against an author-
itarian-minded president. Likewise, coup-makers often attempt to legitimize their own
1022 Political Studies 68(4)
coups by calling their actions “revolutions,” and themselves a “movement.” Just as “one
person’s terrorist is another person’s freedom fighter” (Wardlaw, 1989), one person’s
coup-maker can be another person’s democratizer.
In the seventeenth century, a coup was the exceptional and illegal act of a prince
against other parts of society in order to deal with an extraordinary situation. Its goal was
to restore order, and the prince’s illegal act was considered legitimate since its aim was to
benefit the general interests (Bartelson, 1997; Martínez, 2014).7 With the end of absolut-
ism and the establishment of the principle of popular sovereignty, which separated the
ruler(s) from the State, the coup concept changed into how we know it today (Bartelson,
1997). One classic definition comes from Luttwak who defined a coup as “the infiltration
of a small but critical segment of the state’s apparatus which is used to displace the gov-
ernment from the control of the remainder” (Luttwak, 1969: 12). Coup-makers use the
state machinery to take control over the political levers. According to Luttwak, a coup
shares characteristics with revolution, putsch, rebellion, pronunciamiento, civil war, and
national liberation. Occupied with differentiating the coup from these phenomena,
Luttwak focused on the state turned against the state, and distinguished a coup from other
take-over strategies in its being performed by a small group. Another classic definition
that seeks to distinguish a coup from a barrack revolt (or cuartelazo) is Finer’s (1962:
154),8 “the seizure and elimination of the person of the head of state.” Finer (1962: 155)
also pointed out that a coup is “speedy and immediate,” but did not include these charac-
teristics as part of the definition. In fact, the term coup in French or golpe in Spanish
means a quick movement, a stroke, a blow, or a sudden attack. We stick, however, to
Finer’s parsimonious strategy, and exclude speediness and other common traits such as
secrecy and small group size of coup-makers from our definition. Had we added these
criteria the distinction between the old and new conceptualizations of coups would
become even starker.
Based on the triple criteria of target, perpetrator, and tactics, Powell and Thyne sum-
marized the literature and arrived at the following precise definition: “[a coup attempt
includes] illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state appa-
ratus to unseat the sitting executive” (Powell and Thyne, 2011: 252). Neglected in classic
definitions, but emphasized by Powell and Thyne and McGowan (2003), is that the tactics
used must be illegal. Powell and Thyne (2011: 251) write, “this is important because [it]
distinguishes coups from political pressure, which is common whenever people have free-
dom to organize.” This illegal act also normally involves a suspension of the constitu-
tional order, whether democratic or autocratic, thus connecting this criterion to the
original root of the concept in the seventeenth century. The earlier omission of illegality
was due to three factors which are as follows: (1) the definitions aimed to differentiate
between illegal power grabs—thus the criterion was superfluous; (2) the authors were
occupied with military coups—again, the criterion was superfluous; (3) many coups
occurred in regimes that failed to meet the criteria for rule of law and democracy, which
made the legality/illegality distinction less important.
The legal-illegal distinction is especially relevant in a democratic context, and therefore
in today’s Latin America from where we draw many of our examples. In contrast to previ-
ous periods, most countries in Latin America since the Third Wave are democracies with
at least a veneer of rule of law. Therefore, it is imperative to distinguish coups from legal
removals of the heads of state such as impeachments or popular recalls, which have
become increasingly common (Helmke, 2017). Before the Third Wave, the pitfall of coup
definitions was conflating coups with other illegal attacks on the government, for example,
Marsteintredet and Malamud 1023
military rebellions.9 In today’s democracies, the conceptual peril is conflating a coup with
legal tactics for government replacement.
Victim/Target. The victims of a coup d’état are the government, head of government and/
or state. The goal of coup-makers is to implement a change in government—either by
taking power themselves (e.g. military in government) or by putting someone else in
charge (e.g. military as o poder moderador). Some scholars, however, insist that a coup
is an attack on the regime rather than the government (Belkin and Schofer, 2005; Lunde,
1991; Varol, 2017), in other words that the coup is also directed at the set of rules that
regulate how the state is governed. By narrowing the victim to the government, a coup
needs not by definition change the nature of the regime, for instance a coup in an autoc-
racy may foster a new autocracy (Aksoy et al., 2015), but regardless of who is defined as
target, a coup will hold consequences for the regime.10
Zelaya and declared his removal by the military as legal. Evaluations by international
institutions may be equally tainted by political considerations; and the press and scholars
may have access to imperfect information sometimes riddled with personal bias.
Collier and Levitsky (1997) point out that climbing the ladder of abstraction, or the
ladder of generality as they called it, avoids conceptual stretching, while descending the
ladder increases differentiation. However, one cannot achieve both goals simultaneously.
Using democracy as an example, they identify three strategies to avoid stretching while
enabling differentiation. The first is to use diminished subtypes whenever one of the
defining attributes is missing. This strategy is akin to converting the concept structure
from a classical to a family resemblance type, where the diminished subtype is distin-
guished from the root concept by adding an adjective. The second strategy is to increase
the precision of the definition whenever faced with new empirical developments. The
third strategy is to shift the overarching concept itself. Collier and Levitsky’s example is
to change democratic regime with state. We now use these insights to analyze the concept
of coup (with adjectives).
A B C D E F G
Coup d’état A B C
Military Coup A B C D
Democratic coup A B C E
Non-democratic coup A B C F
Neo-liberal coup A B C G
30)—changes the target from the head of government to other state institutions such as
congress or the judiciary. The term was popularized with President Fujimori’s actions
against congress and the constitution in Peru in 1992. Cameron (1998: 125) defines it as
“when a president closes the courts and the legislature, suspends the constitution, and
rules by decree until a referendum and a new legislative elections are held to approve
broader executive power.” By changing the target, we argue that scholars have stepped up
the ladder of abstraction, and identified the self-coup as a subtype of a coup understood
as directed at the regime. Regime is a more abstract term than government and involves
all key state institutions that share or divide power.
Whereas there are dangers with this strategy, as one risks conflating coups with other
phenomena, it avoids stretching. A further critique points to the term itself: self-coup
leads one to think of shooting oneself or slashing out at oneself, which is inappropriate
given that the one who gains from performing the self-coup is the one leading it. The
autogolpe does not refer to self-harm but to the harm to others. To avoid conceptual con-
fusion, a more appropriate term may be Svolik’s incumbent takeover. However, the auto-
golpe or self-coup has gained academic ground and is referred to regularly in the press. A
Google Scholar search of self-coup (in July 2019) resulted in over 1700 hits, and auto-
golpe returned over 5500 hits.11 Thus, the term is here to stay.
or sufficient condition is common to them all. By keeping the classical constitutive ele-
ments, that is, perpetrator, target, and tactics, four combinations arise:
(a) If the perpetrator is a state agency, the target is the chief executive, and the removal
is illegal or unconstitutional, the act is the classic coup d’état. This is the only
combination in which all criteria are satisfied, and represent the classical defini-
tion of a coup.
(b) If the chief executive is removed through illegal means but the perpetrator is not
a state agency, the act is a revolution. Cases in this cell, however, are sometimes
referred to as “civil society coup,” “electoral coup,” or “market coup” which con-
stitute our “coup with adjectives of Type 1.”
(c) If the perpetrator is a state agency and the tactics are illegal but the target is not the
chief executive, the act may be called a self-coup or incumbent take-over. Cases
of this type, however, have been referred to as “judicial coups” or “slow-motion
coups.” This is a case of “coup with adjectives of Type 2.”
(d) If the perpetrator is a state agency and the target is the executive but the process is
conducted through legal tactics, the act is diversely called an impeachment in the
United States and Brazil, and a juicio politico in Spanish-speaking Latin America.
The controversy here arises around the legality of the process, which is sometimes
questioned. These cases are sometimes called “soft,” “parliamentary,” or “consti-
tutional” coups, filling our cell of “coup with adjectives of Type 3.”
An electoral coup can be understood as the use of elections as a tool to illegally keep
or change power, and as such also resembles the concept of electoral fraud. The concept
1028 Political Studies 68(4)
has mainly been used not only by political actors, among them is Venezuela’s President
Maduro in connection with the parliamentary elections in 2015, but also by academics
and political observers to describe electorally dubious processes in Jamaica, Nicaragua,
Venezuela, and Honduras (e.g. Hellinger, 2005; Kitson, 1982). Although, when presi-
dents use the term one may doubt the allegations of illegality, the term indicates that
actors from outside the state act in an allegedly illegal manner to influence the electoral
outcome in a way that is not congruent with the preferences of the majority, thus satisfy-
ing one or two of the three criteria of a coup. Furthermore, for coups of this type large
masses must be involved to muster votes or organize a fraud, which breaks with the
understanding that a coup is performed by a small group. Finally, an interesting case is the
market coup (“golpe de mercado”). The term was popularized in Argentina in 1989 when
market actors bought hundreds of millions of subsidized dollars depleting the country’s
international reserves and starting a chain of negative economic consequences that led to
President Alfonsin’s early resignation (Smith, 1990). Thus, no state actors were involved,
but in contrast to the above-mentioned coups of this type, the actions were legal, and the
term only satisfies one of the three criteria.
Diminished subtype 2: The judicial coup describes the use of the judiciary against
other state agencies in order to grab power in favor of a third part (e.g. the president or
military). In Stone Sweet’s (2007: 916) definition, a judicial coup also constitutes a
regime change. The term has been applied to recent developments in Venezuela to
describe in particular two Supreme Court sentences of late March 2017 that stripped
the legislative branch of its powers. A judicial coup resembles an incumbent takeover
when the judicial actions favor the president, but it may describe actions that deprive
a president from power and then resembles what we define below as the diminished
subtype 3. In Brazil, judicial coup was the term used to criticize the use of the judiciary
for making an allegedly illegal or illegitimate case for impeachment against President
Rousseff, even though the relevant domestic and international authorities did not
define the actions a coup and the constitutional order was not suspended. To summa-
rize, a judicial coup is only allegedly illegal, the perpetrator is a state agency and it is
supported by the use of force, and satisfies two of the three criteria.
The slow-motion coup has also appeared to describe Venezuela’s transition from
democracy to authoritarianism, and is defined as a process “whereby a consolidated
democracy slowly descends into a hybrid regime and from there into authoritarianism,
through the creation and implementation of conscious decisions made by its ruling elite”
(Polga Hecimovich et al., 2017: 37). As such, the process involves state actors, illegal
actions, and/or use of force, but the victim is not the president. The process thus resem-
bles the judicial coup, or an incumbent takeover, but is less specific on the perpetrator.
Finally, the qualifier “slow” breaks with the understanding of a coup as something swift
and quick. In the end, coups of this type can be understood to satisfy two of the three
criteria.
Diminished subtype 3: The term soft coup indicates that the military was not involved,
and/or that there was no use of force or violence, thus not satisfying the criteria relat-
ing to tactic. The term is often used, among other cases, in connection with the 2012
coup in Egypt, the 2017 coup in Zimbabwe, and the impeachments of Presidents
Rousseff in Brazil and Lugo in Paraguay (see for example, Diamond, 2015b: 85–87;
Stein, 2012). A parliamentary coup, however, indicates that the actor is a state agency
Marsteintredet and Malamud 1029
turned against the government, but unless the parliament illegally removed the presi-
dent (by for instance not having the required number of votes to depose the president),
this term does not satisfy the tactic of a coup since it was deemed legal by the relevant
domestic and international authorities. Again, cases are the impeachments of Presidents
Rousseff and Lugo.12
The constitutional coup describes the use of constitutional measures to remove a presi-
dent, or prolong his stay in power. The latter case is used particularly in the African context
(Camara, 2016; Kotze, 2017),13 and is similar to the judicial coup mentioned earlier. In
Latin America, the term has mostly been used by political actors and the press, but appears
frequently in Spanish in Google Books since the 1980s. The term constitutional coup does
not indicate an actor, and it admits to the (controversial) constitutionality of the action;
hence, the term only satisfies the criterion that the chief executive is the target, and where
it is used to describe a president’s expansion of term limits, the term actually does not
satisfy any of the criteria for a coup even though the actions are identified by that term.
First, contrary to other concepts such as populism—which expanded to account for the
increasing presence of populists (Rooduijn, 2018)—we link the changing structure of the
coup concept to its decreasing empirical presence. The relative scarcity of coups, we
argue, has led to prevalence-induced concept change. By adding adjectives, observers
have increased the extension while reducing the intension of the root concept, therefore
overreporting coups at the same time as their occurrence ebbed. For Latin America in
particular, changing the concept structure inhibits observing the real progress made in
reducing coups as threats to democracy. Even though scholars and the media mention
coups (with adjectives) more often than before, the phenomenon is minimal in the region.
Second, applying a family resemblance structure has created causal and conceptual
confusion. By conflating coups with other concepts, the plethora of event that coups with
adjectives refer to are also assumed to share the same or similar causes and consequences.
Figure 6 shows that for every subtype of coup with adjectives under the family resem-
blance structure, there exists established concepts such as revolution and impeachment.
The strategy of applying diminished subtypes allows for differentiating the key concept
while traveling, but it also creates confusion between, for example, a civil society coup
and a revolution, and between a parliamentary coup and an impeachment. It further cre-
ates pseudo-equivalences between phenomena as different as an impeachment and a rev-
olution by placing both under the conceptual umbrella of a coup, which inhibits rather
than improves our understanding and leads to faulty conclusions.
We argue therefore that applying a family resemblance structure and diminished sub-
types obfuscate rather than clarify the coup concept. Even though adding adjectives can
enhance the precision in order to capture new developments, such as the new political
instability or new ways of democratic deterioration, one problem remains, the recent
usage of diminished subtypes has not led to an agreement over a more precise concept.
The new subtypes point toward different processes which cannot be captured by a single
new criterion and several adjectives such as “slow” or “constitutional” contradict the
original meaning, constituting dismissive subtypes. In some versions, state actors are not
involved, in other the actions are legal, in some the president is the target, in other all
institutions but the presidency are the target. Unlike similar developments with the con-
cept of democracy, which generated a more precise definition, coups with adjectives that
constitute diminished subtypes obfuscate rather than precise the root concept.
The conflation of coups with adjectives with other established concepts and phenom-
ena lead to causal confusion and flawed analyses. Scholars explaining democratic back-
sliding and recession often highlight the differences between today’s dangers to democracy
and classical coups. Causal processes leading to democratic backsliding are slow and
incremental rather than quick, led from the government rather than against the govern-
ment, and weakening institutions rather than aborting them (see for example, Bermeo,
2016). As Svolik (2015) points out, democracies grew immune to coups, but not to
incumbent takeovers. Conflating these processes is likely to mislead causal analysis and
policy prescription since when the diagnosis change, so should the therapy.
Finally, classifying a change in government as a coup may hold real-life consequences.
During the Cold War, the military in Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay classified their coups
as revolutions and their organizations as movements to legitimize their actions. Today
scholars, observers, and presidents on the losing end of an impeachment classify such
events as coups (with adjectives) to delegitimize their opponents. A crisper definition is in
order since labeling an event as a coup may generate political actions of grave conse-
quences such as the withholding of aid, the suspension from international organizations,
Marsteintredet and Malamud 1031
the triggering of international sanctions, and even foreign military intervention. To reduce
the dangers of wrongful categorization of coups, and to distinguish politically motivated
accusations or whitewashing, a clear definition with a set of jointly necessary and suffi-
cient conditions is more useful than a family resemblance structure.
Conclusion
Whereas the threat of coups is lower than ever before, the dangers of concept misforma-
tion of coups is rising. Even though we can identify several recent interesting and positive
conceptual developments in the literature that distinguish between different types of
coups (Aksoy et al., 2015) or between coups and mutinies (Dwyer, 2015; Johnson, 2018),
our main concern has been with the proliferation of diminished subtypes of coups. In
today’s democracies, we particularly warn against conflating coups with legal tactics for
government replacement. We have shown how the use of coups with adjectives, in par-
ticular in the Spanish language, has increased considerably in both the scholarly and non-
scholarly literature while the prevalence of coups has decreased both globally and in
Latin America. We argue that the reason for this puzzling development lies in prevalence-
induced concept change, which has come in the form of changing the concept structure of
coups from classic to family resemblance.
Originally suggested as a way of preventing conceptual stretching and creating ana-
lytical differentiation, we showed that when applied to coups, this strategy prevents con-
cept stretching only partially and at a high cost. The risk is that proliferating adjectives
end up diluting the noun: a coup becomes tantamount to just any mandate interruption
and, as such, is virtually meaningless without adjectives. This further creates conceptual
and causal confusion, and inhibits observers from identifying real world improvements.
Politically, the spreading of coups with adjectives can also have damaging consequences.
Classifying as coups phenomena that belong to another class, such as impeachments,
raises a set of normative and, more consequentially, policy-related questions, as powerful
actors could set measures in motion according to the label that best fits their interests.
We conclude with a humble reminder for scholars and a warning for practitioners.
The reminder, however obvious, is that not every removal is a coup, as a Latin
American political activist ironically quipped, “golpes eran los de antes” (“real coups
were those of yesteryears”). The warning should alert political leaders and activists
that stretching the concept by accusing today’s adversaries of coup-mongering may hit
them back tomorrow.
Authors’ Note
A previous version of this article was presented at the 9th Congress of Asociación Latinoamericana de Ciencia
Política (ALACIP), Montevideo, Uruguay, 26–29 July 2017, and at the American Political Science Association
Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 29 August–1 September 2019.
Acknowledgements
The authors thank Carlos Gervasoni, Mariana Llanos, Miguel De Luca, Michael Alvarez, and two anonymous
reviewers for comments, and Octavio Amorim Neto and Michaël Tatham for conceptual and technical input.
Funding
The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publica-
tion of this article: Andrés Malamud acknowledges the financial support of FCT project UID/SOC/50013/2013.
ORCID iD
Leiv Marsteintredet https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5811-2641
Notes
1. Unless specified, we use “coup” as shorthand for coup d’état, and golpe as the Spanish shorthand for golpe
de estado. This is not to say that coups in other institutions or organizations do not exist, but here we only
deal with the coup d’état.
2. We use the English 2012 (googlebooks-eng-all-20120701) and the Spanish 2012 corpora (googlebooks-
spa-all-20120701), which cover titles from 1800 to 2008. See https://books.google.com/ngrams/info
3. Both available through Clarivate Analytics’ Web of Science (v. 5.30).
4. For Spanish and Portuguese we only have data from 1997. The first observation is from 2002 and we do
not control for a possible increase in production articles over time.
5. The Google books database ends in 2008, and we believe, but are unable to confirm, that the use of coups
with adjectives has increased since then.
6. See interview with political scientist Fabiano Santos likening the impeachment of President Rousseff
with the coup in 1964 (“Impeachment revela que a base da democracia brasileira ainda é frágil,” El País,
edición Brasil, 29 March 2016).
7. The first reference to coup d’état comes from Gabriel Naudé’s “Considerations Politiques sur les Coups
d’éstat” in 1667, who defined a coup as “those bold and extraordinary acts that princes are forced to
undertake in difficult and hopeless matters, contrary to common law and regardless or any justice, put-
ting particular interest at stake for the benefit of the general one.” Quote translated and cited in Bartelson
(1997: 324).
8. A cuartelazo is a barrack revolt involving a larger military group, and often more violence.
9. This distinction still holds relevance in the study of military mutinies and how they are distinct from (but
may evolve into) coups (Dwyer, 2015; Johnson, 2018).
10. Whether coups may foster democracy, and whether coups after the Cold war more often end in democracy,
are important issues in recent research (Derpanopoulos et al., 2016; Marinov and Goemans, 2014; Thyne
and Powell, 2016; Varol, 2017).
11. The Peruvian case is so important for the term that the Spanish version autogolpe has been accepted in
English-written academic works. The term appears in the Oxford English Dictionary since 2011. Although
its popularity rose with Fujimori, autogolpe first appeared in Melville and Melville (1971).
12. See Santos and Guarneri (2016) for Brazil, and Marsteintredet et al., (2013) for references to the
Paraguayan case.
13. The term soft-coup has also been used to describe this phenomenon in Africa (Van Woudenberg and
Sawyer, 2015).
References
Aksoy D, Carter DB and Wright J (2015) Terrorism and the Fate of Dictators. World Politics 67: 423–468.
Bartelson J (1997) Making Exceptions: Some Remarks on the Concept of Coup d’état and Its History. Political
Theory 25: 323–346.
Belkin A and Schofer E (2003) Toward a Structural Understanding of Coup Risk. Journal of Conflict Resolution
47: 594–620.
Belkin A and Schofer E (2005) Coup Risk, Counterbalancing, and International Conflict. Security Studies 14:
140–177.
Bello (2016) When a “coup” Is Not a Coup. The Economist, 9 April. Available at: https://www.economist.com/
the-americas/2016/04/09/when-a-coup-is-not-a-coup
Bermeo N (2016) On Democratic Backsliding. Journal of Democracy 27: 5–18.
Camara K (2016) Here’s How African Leaders Stage “Constitutional Coups”: They Tweak the Constitution
to Stay in Power. The Washington Post (Monkey Cage). Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/
news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/09/16/heres-how-african-leaders-stage-constitutional-coups-they-tweak-
the-constitution-to-stay-in-power/
Marsteintredet and Malamud 1033
Cameron MA (1998) Self-Coups: Peru, Guatemala, and Russia. Journal of Democracy 9: 125–139.
Collier D and Levitsky S (1997) Democracy with Adjectives Conceptual Innovation in Comparative Research.
World Politics 49: 430–451.
Collier D and Mahon JE (1993) Conceptual Stretching Revisited Adapting Categories in Comparative-Analysis.
American Political Science Review 87: 845–855.
David SR (1987) Third World Coups d’état and International Security. Baltimore, MD; London: The Johns
Hopkins University Press.
Derpanopoulos G, Frantz E, Geddes B, et al. (2016) Are Coups Good for Democracy? Research & Politics 3:
1–7.
Diamond L (2015a) Facing Up to the Democratic Recession. Journal of Democracy 26: 414–155.
Diamond L The Use of Coup d’état and Golpe de estado in Books. (2015b) In Search of Democracy. London:
Routledge.
Djuve VL, Knutsen CH and Wig T (2019) Patterns of Regime Breakdown Since the French Revolution.
Comparative Political Studies. Epub ahead of print. DOI: 10.1177/0010414019879953.
Dwyer M (2015) Tactical Communication: Mutiny as a Dialogue in West and Central Africa. Africa Spectrum
50: 5–23.
Encarnación OG (2002) Venezuela’s “Civil Society Coup”. World Policy Journal 19: 38–48.
Finer SE (1962) The Man on Horseback: The Role of the Military in Politics. London: Pall Mall Press.
Fitch JS (1977) The Military Coup d’etat as a Political Process: Ecuador, 1948–1966. Baltimore, MD; London:
The Johns Hopkins University Press.
Gallie WB (1956) Essentially Contested Concepts. Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 56: 167–198.
Gentili P (2016) Golpe en Brasil.Genealogía de una farsa. Buenos Aires: CLACSO, Octubre Editorial.
Goertz G (2006) Social Science Concepts: A User’s Guide. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Hamilton LC and Hamildon JD (1983) Dynamics of Terrorism. International Studies Quarterly 1: 39–54.
Hellinger D (2005) When “No” Means “Yes to Revolution”. Electoral Politics in Bolivarian Venezuela. Latin
American Perspectives 32: 8–32.
Helmke G (2017) Institutions on the Edge: The Origins and Consequences of Inter-Branch Crises in Latin
America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hochstetler K (2006) Rethinking Presidentialism: Challenges and Presidential Falls in South America.
Comparative Politics 38: 401–418.
Inglehart RF and Norris P (2016) Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural
Backlash. HKS Working Paper no. RWP16-026 (HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series), 29 July.
Cambridge, MA: Harvard Kennedy School/John F. Kennedy School of Government.
Johnson JM (2018) Things Fall Apart: The Determinants of Military Mutinies. Doctoral Dissertation —Political
Science, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY.
Keating JE (2012) Coups Ain’t What They Used to Be. Foreign Policy. Available at: https://foreignpolicy.
com/2012/06/27/coups-aint-what-they-used-to-be/
Kitson D (1982) Jamaica and the Electoral Coup of 1980. Race & Class 24: 169–178.
Kotze JS (2017) Africa Faces a New Threat to Democracy: The “Constitutional Coup.” The Conversation. Available
at: http://theconversation.com/africa-faces-a-new-threat-to-democracy-the-constitutional-coup-72011
Levari DE, Gilbert DT, Wilson TD, et al. (2018) Prevalence-Induced Concept Change in Human Judgment.
Science 360: 1465–1467.
Lührmann A and Lindberg SI (2019) A Third Wave of Autocratization Is Here: What Is New about It?
Democratization 26: 1095–1113.
Lunde TK (1991) Modernization and Political Instability: Coups d’etát in Africa, 1955–85. Acta Sociologica
34: 13–32.
Luttwak EN (1969) Coup d’état: A Practical Handbook. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
McGowan PJ (2003) African Military Coups d’etát, 1956–2001: Frequency, Trends and Distribution. The
Journal of Modern African Studies 41: 339–370.
Marinov N and Goemans H (2014) Coups and Democracy. British Journal of Political Science 44: 799–825.
Marshall MG and Marshall DR (2018) Coup d’état Events, 1946–2017. Center for Systemic Peace, May 2.
Available at: http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/CSPCoupsCodebook2017.pdf
Marsteintredet L, Llanos M and Nolte D (2013) The Politics of Impeachment: The Fall of President Lugo in
Comparative Perspective. Journal of Democracy 24: 110–123.
Martínez R (2014) Subtipos de golpes de Estado: transformaciones recientes de un concepto del siglo XVII.
Revista CIDOB d’afers Internacionals 108: 191–212.
Mauceri P (1995) State Reform, Coalitions, and the Neoliberal Autogolpe in Peru. Latin American Research
Review 30: 7–37.
1034 Political Studies 68(4)
Mechokva V, Lührmann A and Lindberg SI (2017) How Much Democratic Backsliding? Journal of Democracy
28: 162–169.
Melville M and Melville T (1971) Guatemala: The Politics of Land Ownership. New York: Free Press.
Mudde C (2004) The Populist Zeitgeist. Government and Opposition 39: 542–563.
Ngram Viewer (2013) Google Books Ngram Viewer. (ed Google Research). Available at: http://books.google.
com/ngrams
OAS (2001) Inter-American Democratic Charter. Lima, Peru: OAS.
Pérez-Liñán A (2007) Presidential Impeachment and the New Political Instability in Latin America. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press.
Pitts B, Joyce R, Sheptak R, et al. (2016) 21st Century Golpismo: A NACLA Roundtable. NACLA Report on
the Americas 48: 334–345.
Polga Hecimovich J, Sagarzazu I and Sánchez Urribarri R (2017) Venezuelan Overview. LASA Forum XLVIII:
35–37.
Powell JM and Thyne CL (2011) Global Instances of Coups from 1950 to 2010: A New Dataset. Journal of
Peace Research 48: 249–259.
Przeworski A, Asadurian T, Bohlken AT, et al. (2013) Political Institutions and Political Events (PIPE) Data
Set. New York: Department of Politics, New York University.
Roberts K (1995) Neoliberalism and the Transformation of Populism in Latin America: The Peruvian Case.
World Politics 48: 82–116.
Rooduijn M (2018) State of the Field: How to Study Populism and Adjacent Topics? A Plea for Both More and
Less Focus. European Journal of Political Research 58: 362–372.
Santos F and Guarneri F (2016) From Protest to Parliamentary Coup: An Overview of Brazil’s Recent History.
Journal of Latin American Cultural Studies 25: 485–494.
Sartori G (1970) Concept Misformation in Comparative Politics. American Political Science Review 64: 1033–
1053.
Sartori G (1984) Social Science Concepts: A Systematic Analysis. Beverly Hills, CA: SAGE Publishing.
Singh N (2014) Seizing Power: The Strategic Logic of Military Coups. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins
University Press.
Smith WC (1990) Democracy, Distributional Conflicts and Macroeconomic Policymaking in Argentina, 1983–
1989. Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 32: 1–42.
Stein E (2012) Revolution or Coup? Egypt’s Fraught Transition: Survival. Global Politics and Strategy 54:
45–66.
Stone Sweet A (2007) The Juridical Coup d’état and the Problem of Authority. German Law Journal 2:
915–928.
Svolik MW (2015) Which Democracies Will Last? Coups, Incumbent Takeovers, and the Dynamic of
Democratic Consolidation. British Journal of Political Science 45: 715–738.
Thyne CL (2010) Supporter of Stability or Agent of Agitation? The Effect of United States Foreign Policy on
Coups in Latin America, 1960–1999. Journal of Peace Research 47: 449–461.
Thyne CL and Powell JM (2016) Coup d’état or Coup d’Autocracy? How Coups Impact Democratization,
1950–2008. Foreign Policy Analysis 12: 192–213.
Tovias A (1984) The International Context of Democratic Transition. West European Politics 7: 158–171.
Van Woudenberg A and Sawyer I (2015) Africa’s Softer, Gentler Coups d’etat. Foreign Policy. Available at:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/11/03/africas-softer-gentler-coups-detat/
Varol O (2017) The Democratic Coup d’état. Oxford; New York: Oxford University Press.
Wardlaw G (1989) Political Terrorism: Theory, Tactics, and Counter-Measures. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press.
Weyland K (2001) Clarifying a Contested Concept: Populism in the Study of Latin American Politics.
Comparative Politics 34: 1–22.
Yarwood J (2016) The Struggle Over Term Limits in Africa. The Power of Protest. Journal of Democracy 27:
51–60.
Yavuz MH and Koç R (2016) The Turkish Coup Attempt: The Gülen Movement Vs. the State. Middle East
Policy XXIII: 136–148.
Author Biographies
Leiv Marsteintredet holds a PhD in comparative politics and is an Associate Professor at the Department of
Comparative Politics, University of Bergen. His research focuses on Latin America, in particular topics related
to political institutions, presidential crises, impeachments, and falls. Currently, he is studying the development
Marsteintredet and Malamud 1035
and history of succession rules and the vice presidency in Latin America. He has published in journals such as
Comparative Politics, International Political Science Review, Journal of Latin American Studies, European
Political Science, and Journal of Democracy.
Andrés Malamud (PhD European University Institute, 2003) is a senior research fellow at the Institute of Social
Sciences of the University of Lisbon. His research focuses on comparative regional integration, foreign policy,
Latin American politics, and EU Studies. His work has been published in journals such as the Latin American
Research Review, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Latin American Politics and Society, Journal of
European Integration, Latin American Perspectives, and European Political Science.