WHAT TO EXPECT

MAJORSHIP: MATHEMATICS
FOCUS: Probability
LET COMPETENCIES:
Solve problems involving
1. Fundamental Principle of Counting
2. Permutation
2.1. Linear Permutation
2.2. Circular Permutation
2.3. Permutation with Repetition
3. Combination
4. Probability of Events
4.1. Conditional Probability
4.2. Mutually and Non-Mutually Exclusive Events (The Addition Rule)
4.3. Dependent and Independent Events (The Multiplication Rule)
5. Binomial Distribution
6. Normal Distribution

PART I – CONTENT UPDATE

1. Fundamental Principle of Counting (FPC)

If one thing can be accomplished in n1different ways, a second thing can be accomplished in n2
different ways, …, and finally a kth thing can be accomplished in nk different ways, then the k things
can be accomplished in

number of ways.

Examples

a. In how many ways can four tossed coins fall?

There are 2possibilities for the first tossed coin, 2 possibilities for the second tossed coin, 2
possibilities for the third tossed coin, and 2 possibilities for the fourth tossed coin. By the
fundamental principle of counting (FPC), the 4 coins may fall in 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 or 16 ways.

b. In how many ways can two rolled dice land?

There are 6 possibilities for the first thrown die and 6 possibilities for the second. By the
fundamental principle of counting (FPC), the dice can land in 6 x 6 or 36 different ways.

2. Permutation

Definition 2.1 A permutation is an arrangement of a set of objects in a definite order.

Example

Consider the set J= .

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We have the following arrangements for the elements of J.

abc acb bac bca cab cba

Hence there are 6 permutations.

We may also use the FPC to find the number of permutations of J= . We have 3 choices for
the first letter, 2 for the second, and 1 for the last. The number of permutations then is 3 x 2 x 1 or 6.

2.1 Linear Permutation

Suppose that we are given n distinct objects and wish to arrange r of these objects in a line.
Since there are n ways of choosing the 1st object, n – 1 ways of choosing the 2nd object, …, and
finally n – r + 1 ways of choosing the rthobject, it follows by the FPC that the number of different
arrangements or permutations is given by

n( n – 1)(n – 2) … ( n – r + 1)

We call nPr the number of permutations of n objects taken r at a time. If n = r, then

n Pr = n( n – 1)(n – 2) … 1 = n!

If n objects are to be arranged r objects at a time, then the number of distinct arrangements is
given by the formula:

n Pr = , nr

Examples
a. In how many ways can 6 different books be arranged in a shelf?

The 6 books can be arranged in 6 positions on the shelf: __ __ __ __ __ __. There are 6
ways of filling the first position, 5 ways of filling the second position, … , and one way of filling
the last position. Therefore,

6 P6 = 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x2 x 1 = 720 ways

b. In how many ways may the first, second, and third prizes be drawn from 25 lottery tickets?

25 P3 = 25 x 24 x 23 = 13,800

or25P3 = = = = 25 x 24 x 23 = 13,800 ways

2.2 Circular Permutation

If n objects are to be arranged in a circular manner, then the number of distinct arrangements is
(n – 1)!

Example

In how many ways can 8 people be arranged in a circular table?

(8 – 1)! = 7! = 5,040 ways

2.3 Permutation with Repetition

The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n1 are of one kind, n2 of a second kind,
… ,nk of kth kind is

P=

Example

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 In how many different ways can 5 red, 3 blue, and 4 green bulbs be arranged in a wire of a
Christmas tree lights with 12 sockets?

P= = 27,720

3. Combination

What distinguishes permutation from combination is order. That is, a combination is also an
arrangement of a set of objects but without regards to order. Hence, changing the order of any
combination does not make a new combination. The number of combinations of n distinct objects
taken r at a time is

n Cr = , nr

Examples

a. How many combinations of two letters are possible using the letters a, b, and c.

We have the following arrangements for the letters a, b, and c.

abacbabccacb

Since order is not important aband ba are considered a single combination, ac and ca are
considered a single combination, and bcand cb are considered a single combination. Therefore
there are only 3 combinations.

b. In how many ways can a committee of 5 people be chosen from 9 people?

9 C5 = = 126 ways

4. Probability of Events

Definition 4.1 Probability is the likelihood of occurrence of an event.

Definition 4.2 Experiment is an activity that is under consideration and which can be done
repeatedly.

Examples

a. Drawing a card from an ordinary deck of 52 cards

b. Tossing a coin
c. Rolling a die

Definition 4.3 Sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

Examples

a. In tossing a coin, the possible outcomes are head or tail. Hence the sample space is S =

b. In rolling a die, the sample space is S =

Definition 4.4 Sample point is an element of the sample space. Thus, in tossing a coin, there are
two sample points: head and tail.

Definition 4.5 An event is any subset of the sample space. A simple event is one that consists of
exactly one outcome, hence it cannot be decomposed. On the other hand, an event is compound if it
consists of more than one outcome.
Definition 4.6 The complement of an event A with respect to the sample space, S is the set of all
elements of S that are not in A(denoted by A’)

There are three types of conceptual approaches to studying probability theory:

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 i. Subjective Probability – is a personal assessment of the likelihood of occurrence of an
event based on all available evidence.

ii. Empirical Probability – is defined as the proportion of times that a particular outcome
occurs in a very large number of observations or experiments. It is the relative frequency of
an event in past occurrences.

iii. Theoretical Probability – the probability of an event E denoted by P(E) is given by

P(E) =

where n(E) = number of favorable outcomes

n(S) = number of possible outcomes

Definition 4.7If E is any event, then the probability of an event denoted by P(E) has a value between
0 and 1 inclusive. In symbol,

0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1

If P(E) = 1, then E is sure to happen.

If P(E) = 0, then E is impossible to happen.

Moreover, if the probability that E will not happen is P(E’), then P(E) + P(E’) = 1.

Examples

a. Consider the experiment of rolling a die.

S= n(S) = 6
E = event that an even value occur n(E) = 3

P(E) = = =

b. If the probability that Jovie will graduate is , what is the probability that she will not graduate?

P(E) + P(E’) = 1

+ (E’) = 1

(E’) =

4.1 Conditional Probability

The conditional probability of B, given that A has occurred, is denoted by P(B‌│A). Since A
known to have occurred, then A becomes the new sample space replacing the original sample
space, S. Below is the formula for the conditional probability of B given A

P(B‌│A) = if P(A)  0
Example

Find the probability that a single toss of a die resulted in a number less than 4 if the toss resulted
in even number.

E=
L=
E L=
Let P(E) be the probability that an even number occurs
P(E L) be the probability that an even number less than four occurs

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 P(L/E) = = =

4.2 Mutually and Non-mutually Exclusive Events (The Additive Rule)

Definition 4.1.1 Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot happen at the same time.
Otherwise they are said to be non-mutually exclusive.

If A and Bare any two events, then the probability that A or B will happen is given by the formula:

P(A or B) = P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A B)

where P(A B) is the probability that both A and B will happen.

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)

because if A and B are mutually exclusive the probability of their joint occurrence is zero.

Example

A card is drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards. What is the probability of getting
a. an ace or a king?
b. a red or a face card?

a. LetP(A) be the probability that an ace is drawn

P(K) be the probability that a king is drawn

Since eventsA andK are mutually exclusive, then

P(A K) = P(A) + P(K)

= +

b. Let P(R) be the probability that a red card is drawn

P(F) be the probability that a face card is drawn

Since eventsA and K are non-mutually exclusive, then

P(R F) = P(R) + P(F) – P(R F)

= + –

4.3 Dependent and Independent Events (The Multiplication Rule)

Definition 4.2.1 Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the
occurrence of the other. Otherwise they are said to be dependent.

If A and B are any two events, then the probability that AandB will happen is given by the formula:

P(A and B) = P(A B) = P(A)  P(B/A)

Where P(B/A) is the probability that B will happen given that A happened already.

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 However, if A and B are independent events then

P(A B) = P(A)  P(B) since P(B/A) = P(B)

Example

Two cards are drawn one at a time from a well-shuffled deck of cards. Find the probability that
they are both kings if the first card is (a) replaced, (b) not replaced.

a. Let P(K1) be the probability that a king is chosen on the first draw
P(K2) be the probability that a king is chosen on the second draw

Since the second event is independent of the first, then

P(K1 K2) = P(K1)  P(K2)

= 

b. Let P(K1) be the probability that a king is chosen on the first draw
P(K2) be the probability that a king is chosen on the second draw

Since the second event is dependent on the first, then

P(K1 K2) = P(K1)  P(K2/ K1)

4 3
⋅
52 51
=

5. Binomial Distribution

Definition 5.1 An experiment that has of only two possible outcomes, for instance a success and a
failure, is called a binomial experiment.

Properties of a binomial experiment

i. The experiment consists of repeated trials.

ii. Each trial results in an outcome that can be classified as a success or a failure.
iii. The probability of success remains constant from trial to trial.
iv. The repeated trials are independent.

Definition 5.2If a binomial experiment can result in success with probability p and failurewith
probability q = 1 – p, then the probability distribution of the binomial random variable x, the number of
successes in nindependent trials, is

b(x; n, p) = pxqn – x

Example

The probability that a certain kind of component will survive a given shock test is . Find the
probability that exactly 2 of the next 4 components tested survive.

b(2; 4, ) =

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6. Normal Distribution

The normal distribution represented by a normal curve has a bell-shaped figure (figure 6.1).

figure 6.1
z 1 = P(z) = 68.27% or .6827
z 2 = P(z) = 95.45% or .9545
z 3 = P(z) = 99.73% or .9973

The figure also illustrates the normal curve with standard scores and the probabilities associated with
them.

Properties of a normal probability distribution

i. It is bilaterally symmetric with respect to the vertical line through the modal peak of the curve.
ii. The values of the mean, median, and mode coincide at the exact center of the distribution.
iii. The curve extends from the mean in both directions (left and right) toward infinity; that is, it is
asymptotic with respect to the horizontal axis.
iv. The cases lying above the mean if 0.50 and the proportion below is 0.50; that is, 50% of the
cases lie above the mean, and 50% below it.

Definition 6.1 The number of standard units Z (zscore) for an observation X from a probability
distribution is defined by

z=

where x = value of the observation

 = the mean of the distribution
 = the standard deviation of the distribution

given the standard scores,actual scores may be obtained by algebraically manipulating the standard
score formula. Hence the formula can be written as

x = z + 

Examples

The results of an examination in Physics given to 100 students was known to be approximately
normally distributed with a mean of 54 and a standard deviation of 12.
a. Find the standard score of Jedidiah if she got a score of 86.
b. Find the actual score of Vanessa if her standard score is -1.25.

a. z = = = 2.67

b. x = z + 
= (-1.25)(12) + 54
= 39

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PART II – ANALYZING TEST ITEMS

1. What is the probability of getting a black diamond in a single draw of a card from an ordinary deck of
playing cards?
a. 1/4 c. 1/52
b. 0 d. 1

2. There are five routes between an executive’s home and her place of work. In how many ways can
she go to and from work if she does not want to use the same route both ways?
a. 5 c. 20
b. 25 d. 4

3. Four married couples have purchased 8 seats in a row for a basketball game. In how many different
ways can they be seated if each couple is to sit together
a. 384 c. 345
b. 350 d. 360

4. A baby places the wooden digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 in a row. What is the probability that the number formed
is less than 20,000?
a. 1/3 c. 2/5
b. 1/5 d. 2/3

5. A can contains 5 white and 3 black balls. Another can contains 4 white and 6 black balls. One ball will
be drawn from each can. In how many ways can 2 balls of the same color be drawn?
a. 38 c. 36
b. 39 d. 42

6. One bag contains 4 red and 5 white balls. A second bag contains 3 green and 7 yellow balls. If a ball
is drawn from each bag, what is the probability that the first is white and the second is green?

a. c.

b. d.

7. A single die is rolled three times. Find the probability that a 5 turns up exactly twice.
a. 0.005 c. 0.056
b. 0.016 d. 0.069

8. In a group of 200 students, 40 are taking English, 50 are taking Mathematics, and 12 are taking both.
A student is selected at random from those taking English. What is probability that the student is
taking Mathematics?

a. c.

b. d.

9. If the probability that a patient will recover from a delicate heart operation is 0.85, what is the
probability that the next 5 patients will not recover?
a. 0.000076 c. 0.000044
b. 0.000082 d. 0.000024

10. An amusement park has 28 different rides. In how many different ways can a person try four of these
rides, assuming that the order matters and that she does not want to try any ride more than once?
a. 482,900 c. 462,200
b. 481,900 d. 491,400

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11. A particular examination in biology with 200 students was known to be approximately normally
distributed with a mean of 38 and a standard deviation of 5. Find the standard score of a student
whose score is 40.
a. 0.30 c. 0.40
b. 0.28 d. 0.42

12. How many permutations can be made by using all the letters in the word JEDIDIAH?
a. 40,320 c. 20,160
b. 10,080 d. 30,240

13. How many ways are there to select 3 candidates from 8 equally qualified recent graduates for
opening in an accounting firm?
a. 24 c. 6
b. 56 d. 336

14. A normal distribution has a mean of 30 and a standard deviation of 7. Find the probability that the
value of a score is between 23 and 37.
a. 0.68 c. 0.54
b. 0.34 d. 0.27

15. Two digits are selected at random from the digits 1 through 9. If the sum is even, what is the
probability that both numbers are odd?
a. 3/8 c. 3/10
b. 5/8 d. 8/9

16. The scores of students in Geometry are known to be approximately normally distributed with a mean
of 50 and standard deviation of 9. What is the actual score of Jovie if his standard score is 1.33?
a. 62 c. 54
b. 38 d. 48

17. Plantation Foods has found that 25% of those hired to load trucks will work for more than one week.
Find the probability that three of four new hires will work for more than one week.
a. 0.037 c. 0.047
b. 0.026 d. 0.012

18. In how many ways can seven visitors be seated in a round table?
a. 7! c. 6!
b. 6!7! d. 5!

19. Nine points, no 3 of which are collinear, are marked on a blackboard. How many triangles are
determined by the points?
a. 84 c. 64
b. 34 d. 81

20. A box contains 5 red, 4 blue, and 3 white balls. If 3 balls are drawn at random, what is the probability
that they are of different colors?

a. c.

b. d.

21. From 6 consonants and 5 vowels, how many words can be formed consisting of 3 different
consonants and 2 different vowels? The words need not have meaning.
a. 1500 c. 2400
b. 1800 d. 2100

22. A town has two fire engines operating independently. The probability that a specific engine is
available when needed is 0.96. What is the probability that neither is available when needed?
a. 0.0112 c. 0.9984
b. 0.0016 d. 0.9452

23. The probabilities that teams A, B, and C will win the conference championship are1/4, 1/6, and 1/9
respectively. What is the probability that one of them will win the title?
a. 15/36 c. 17/36
b. 11/36 d. 19/36

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24. In a certain town, 40% of the people have brown hair, 25% have brown eyes, and 15% have both
brown hair and brown eyes. A person is selected at random from the town. If he has brown eyes,
what is the probability that he does not have brown hair?
a. 3/8 c. 1/2
b. 2/5 d.3/4

25. There are 20 machines in a large plant. The machines operate independently of one another,
breakdowns occur at random. The probability of a breakdown for each machine in one day’s
operation is 0.10. Find the probability that exactly 4 breakdowns occur in one day.
a. 0.080 c. 0.076
b. 0.060 d. 0.090

PART III – ENHANCING TEST TAKING SKILLS

1. How many even numbers of three digits can be formed with the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7 if digits may
be repeated?
a. 124 c. 126
b. 204 d. 108

2. A bowl contains 15 red, 30 white, 20 blue, and 7 black beads. If one of the beads is drawn at random,
what is the probability that it will neither be white nor black?

a. c.

b. d.

3. Two peoplegot married. The probabilities that the man and the woman will live 45 more years are
0.58 and 0.64, respectively. Find the probability that both will still be alive 45 years later.
a. 0.36 c. 0.38
b. 0.37 d. 0.35

4. How many permutations can be made from the letters of INFINITY if all the letters are used in each
permutation?
a. 3,360 c. 4,512
b. 3,540 d. 3,124

5. In how many ways can a president, a secretary, and a treasurer be selected from a committee of
seven?
a. 200 c. 230
b. 150 d. 210

6. There are 4 novels, 2 books of poems and 1 dictionary on a shelf. In how many ways can a person
take any three books such that the dictionary will always be included?
a. 15 c. 10
b. 35 d. 30

7. Find the probability that in five rolls of a fair die, a 3 will appear twice.

a. c.

b. d.

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8. A pair of fair dice is thrown. What is the probability that the sum is 10 or greater if 5 appears on the
first die?

a. c.

b. d.

9. What is the probability of rolling a total of five with a pair of balanced die?
a. 5/36 c. 1/2
b. 17/36 d. 3/4

10. A coin is tossed three times in succession. What is the probability of getting a head on the first toss
and tails on the other succeeding tosses?

a. c.

b. d.

11. On a given exam in science, the scores are approximately normally distributed with a mean
of 32 and standard deviation of 6.What is the actual score of Honey if his standard score is -
0.82?
a. 38 c. 32
b. 26 d. 27

12. Three people are shooting at a target. The probabilities that they hit the target are 0.50, 0.60, and
0.80. Find the probability that all three miss the target.
a. 0.03 c. 0.70
b. 0.04 d. 0.60

13. A class has 12 boys and 4 girls. If three students are selected at random from the class, what is the
probability that they are boys?
a. 4/5 c. 11/28
b. 13/28 d. 3/5

14. How many 4 digit numbers less than 4,000 can be formed from 0, 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 if the digits can
only be used once?
a. 120 c. 100
b. 80 d. 60

15. Five multiple choice items with four choices for each number is to be answered by students in
Algebra. In how many ways can a student answer the 5 question?
a. 243 c.1,024
b. 20 d. 16

16. A multiple choice test consists of 8 questions, each with 4 possible answers only one of which is
correct. What is the probability that an unprepared student will, by chance get exactly 6 correct
answers?
a. 0.003 c. 0.002
b. 0.005 d. 0.004

17. If 20% of the bolts produced by a machine are defective, determine the probability that out of 4 bolts
chosen at random less than 2 bolts will be defective.
a. 0.82 c. 0.80
b. 0.76 d. 0.78

18. A ten-pack of batteries has 2 defective batteries. In how many ways can one select 3 of these
batteries and get one of the defective batteries?
a. 78 c. 67
b. 56 d. 34

19. Compute for the standard score of 31 if the mean is 25 and the standard deviation is 2.
a. -3.00 c. 3.00
b. 1.75 d. -1.75

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20. Ten people are to sit at a round table. Find the number of seating arrangements if the host and the
hostess must always seat together?
a. 725,760 c. 362,880
b. 90,720 d. 80,640

21. A three digit number is to be formed from numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 8. What is the probability that the
number formed will be odd if repetitions are not allowed?

a. c.

b. d.

22. Two cards are drawn in succession from a deck without replacement. What is the probability that both
cards are greater than two but less than 8?

a. c.

b. d.

23. In a group of 60 children, 28 are enrolled in a summer swimming program, 20 signed up for soccer,
and 6 are in both. If a child is selected from those enrolled in swimming, what is the probability that
the child is signed up for soccer?

a. c.

b. d.

24. The probabilities that two students will show up for class are 0.60 and 0.80. Find the probability that
at least one does not show up for class.
a. 0.44 c.0.52
b. 0.08 d. 0.32

25. In a municipality in Bulacan, supermarkets on the average charge 250 pesos per kilo for sirloin steak
(with standard deviation of 9.50 pesos), 75 pesos per kilo for tilapia (with a standard deviation of 6.50
pesos), 180 pesos per kilo for beef (with a standard deviation of 2.50 pesos), and 125 pesos per kilo
for whole chicken (with standard deviation of 5.00 pesos). If a supermarket in this city charges 245
pesos per kilo for sirloin steak, 77 pesos per kilo for tilapia, 170 pesos per kilo for beef, and 118
pesos per kilo for whole chicken, which of the 4 items is, relatively speaking, the best bargain?
a. sirloin steak c. tilapia
b. beef d. whole chicken

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 PART IV– KEY TO CORRECTION

Part II. Analyzing Test ItemsPart III. Enhancing Test Taking Skills

1. b 11. c 21. c 1. d 11. d 21. d

2. c 12. b 22. b 2. a 12. b 22. a
3. a 13. b 23. d 3.b 13. c 23. b
4. d 14. a 24. b 4. c 14. d 24. c
5. a 15. b 25. d 5. d 15.c 25. b
6. c 16. a 6. a 16. d
7. d 17. c 7.b 17. a
8. d 18. c 8. c 18.b
9. a 19. a 9. a 19. c
10. b 20. d 10. a 20.d

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