Data-Based Decision Making and Digital Transformation
Data-Based Decision Making and Digital Transformation
POWER • HEAVIN
EXPERT PRESS and Digital Transformation Daniel J. Power, Editor
DIGITAL LIBRARIES
Daniel J. Power • Ciara Heavin
EBOOKS FOR
BUSINESS STUDENTS Digital disruption is accelerating. Implementing a successful
Curriculum-oriented, born- digital transformation strategy requires that senior m
anagers
digital books for advanced make trade-off decisions to reinvent a business. Equally important
Data-Based
business students, written all decision makers must learn to ask the right questions, use
by academic thought data and computer support in decision making, and increase
leaders who translate real- their knowledge and skills. Creating a data-centric culture and
world business experience
Decision
rewarding data-based decision making leads to successful digital
into course readings and transformation. Join the digital journey.
reference materials for This book is targeted at managers, especially middle-level
students expecting to tackle
Making
managers who are trying to come to grips with using data-based
management and leadership
decision making in a transforming organization. The a
uthors
challenges during their
explore a number of broad questions including: How can
professional careers.
Transformation
usage successfully transformed?
• Unrestricted downloading
and printing Dr. Daniel J. Power is professor of information systems at the
• Perpetual access for a College of Business Administration, University of Northern
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way to deliver practical
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Dr. Ciara Heavin is a lecturer in business information systems
at Cork University Business School (CUBS), Cork, Ireland.
Ciara Heavin
business issues to every
Her
research focuses on innovative mobile decision support
student and faculty member.
solutions in healthcare. Dr. Heavin is an investigator on research
projects funded by the European Union (FP7), the Irish Research
Council and the Wellcome Trust UK. She has published in top
For further information, a international IS journals and conferences. She was managing
editor of the Journal of Decision Systems from 2011 to 2017, and is
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Daniel J. Power, Editor
ISBN: 978-1-63157-658-4
Data-Based Decision
Making and Digital
Transformation
Data-Based Decision
Making and Digital
Transformation
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Keywords
analytics, artificial intelligence, big data, business intelligence, com-
petitive advantage, data, data storytelling, data-based decision making,
decision making, decision support, decision support systems, digital
transformation, IoT, machine learning, managers, visualization
Contents
Preface��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ix
Acknowledgments�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������xi
Glossary�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������77
Bibliography�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������81
Index���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������91
Preface
For many years, both of us have been working with digital technolo-
gies and computerized decision support and analytics. Over the years,
we have observed both successes and failures, shattered expectations for
new decision support systems, ongoing technology obsolescence, and
magnificent technology innovations. We have experienced digital trans-
formation in many industries, including retailing at Amazon, streaming
video at Netflix, transportation at Uber, and accommodations at Airbnb.
Computing and information technologies have changed the world and
will continue to do so.
This book is wide ranging in its coverage of digital transforma-
tion, but it is primarily focused upon how expanding data sources can
improve data-based decision making and help realize successful changes
in organizations. The goal of the book is to help managers anticipate and
thrive in the disruptive, data intensive digital environment facing many
organizations.
Writing this book has been a transformative journey for us and we
acknowledge it builds on the prior ideas of many researchers, experts,
and bloggers. For more than a year, we have explored the riddle of how
managers can cope with digital disruption. We found consensus that the
competitive problem of digitalization was real. We found examples of
entrepreneurs and managers implementing new business models and tak-
ing strategic actions intended to use digital technologies for competitive
advantage. In some cases, actions seemed short term and mere repairs
to outdated processes, rather than significant changes to processes and
business models. In other cases, the transformation was innovative and
extraordinarily successful.
This book is targeted for managers, especially middle-level managers
who are trying to come to grips with using data-based decision mak-
ing in a transforming organization. We encourage managers to practice
thoughtful, ethical, data-based decision making.
Acknowledgments
Many people over the years have contributed to the ideas and advice
developed in this book—our students, readers of Decision Support News,
faculty colleagues, friends in various software companies, and friends
associated with the BeyeNETWORK, a TechTarget company. Also, DSS-
Resources.com and Decision Support News have been effective ways to
communicate ideas and to get feedback.
Actual production of this book is the result of the efforts of many
people. Thanks to everyone at Business Expert Press (BEP) and affiliated
organizations.
Lastly, and most importantly, we want to acknowledge the invaluable
help and support of our families. Dan thanks his wife Carol and sons
Alex, Ben, and Greg. Ciara sends thanks to her husband Finian, sons
Oisin and Ronan, and to her Mum and Dad.
Our families motivated us to make this contribution toward improv-
ing data-based decision making in organizations and helping managers
and their organizations survive well in a disrupted, digital world.
CHAPTER 1
1
http://iflscience.com/technology/how-much-data-does-the-world-generate-
every-minute/
2 DATA-BASED DECISION MAKING AND DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
estimates that 163 zettabytes of data will be created each year by 2025.2
Global society is in the midst of a profound and irreversible change. Data
are everywhere, we are dependent on digital devices, and data provide an
opportunity for innovative business models, increased efficiencies, and
greater effectiveness in meeting customer needs.
Managers must at a fundamental level make better use of data and
facts in decision making. Facts should guide digital transformation and
digital transformation initiatives should increase the use of data and facts
in every activity and process of an organization including decision m
aking.
Analyzing data is now a core decision support task in many b usinesses as
managers try to derive value from the large volume of diverse data sources.
Digitization of business activities and processes has led to an explosive
growth in data. The “Big Data” tsunami has hence increased the need
for business and data analytics. This major change has heightened the
need for managers to understand the possibilities of these technologies
and their application in a variety of areas including consumer financial
services, insurance, manufacturing, media, retail, pharmaceuticals, health
care, and government.3
As senior managers formulate information technology (IT) strate-
gies, formulate a digital transformation vision, and assess investments,
it is essential to use data-based decision making and data analytics to
investigate and evaluate choices. Managers should ask if the investments
will improve organizational decision making, knowledge management,
yield valued digital transformation, and ultimately enhance organiza-
tional success? According to Grossman (2016), “Organizations that foster
a culture of making data-based decisions will be in a stronger position to
weather the changes ahead.” We agree.
Digital transformation strategy involves making decisions about
technology trade-offs and ideally choices are data-informed and fact-
based. Data-based decision making is both a process and a culture. Some
2
IDC, Data Age at https://seagate.com/files/www-content/our-story/trends/
files/Seagate-WP-DataAge2025-March-2017.pdf
3
Grossman, R. 2016. “The Industries that are Being Disrupted the Most by
Digital.” Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2016/03/the-industries-that-
are-being-disrupted-the-most-by-digital. March 21, 2016.
Introduction and Overview 3
managers and organizations already value using data and facts to make
decisions. Part of successful digital transformation is making systematic
use of data in decision making. Data-based decision making, using data
and facts to make decisions, is both a prerequisite to digital transfor-
mation and the result of a data-informed culture. Improved data-based
decision making is and should be a necessary consequence of a digital
transformation vision and strategy.
Global business activity is accelerating and decision-making activ-
ities and processes must be responsive to changing business needs and
a high velocity decision environment. Understanding what is occurring
can increase the adaptive response of managers. Awareness is a major
goal of the following chapters. In general, it is not sufficient to only
understand the need for new technology-supported processes, for better
use of data in decision making and the possibilities for revised and
innovative business models to achieve positive change. Managers must
understand how to successfully implement digital transformation com-
petitive opportunities. Managers must think digital and be committed
to building data capture and data use into core activities and processes.
A transformation strategy without an implementation plan and action
taking is wishful thinking.
Improved data-based decision making skills of middle-level managers
and use of analytical tools and innovative computerized decision sup-
port can reduce the negative consequences and chaos some organizations
are experiencing due to digital technologies and vast, ever-increasing,
amounts of data. Data-based decision making can help channel informa-
tion technology changes in positive directions that are essential to success-
ful digital transformation and improved organization viability. Relying
solely on programmed data-driven decision making using algorithms
and reducing the number of decision makers in an organization is only a
partial solution for digital transformation and then only in some indus-
tries. Replacing decision makers with decision automation, p rogrammed
data-driven decision making, and decision management has a serious
downside for society and may actually increase digital disruption and
make positive digital transformation in an organization less likely.
To cope with digital disruption, many managers should learn new
knowledge and new skills, including the basics of analytics, data-based
4 DATA-BASED DECISION MAKING AND DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
1
“Couchbase Research Reveals a Majority of Organizations Expect to Fail in
Four Years if Digital Transformation Approach is Unsuccessful.” http://dssre-
sources.com/news/4798.php
2
https://i-scoop.eu/digitization-digitalization-digital-transformation-disruption/
6 DATA-BASED DECISION MAKING AND DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
3
Dimension Data, “Artificial Intelligence and Analytics Accelerate the Pace of
Digital Workplace Transformation.” http://dssresources.com/news/4789.php
Decision Making and Digital Transformation 7
4
Roberts, B. February 2012. “Data Data Everywhere and Not a Drop of Value,”
http://bryce.vc blog, at URL http://bryce.vc/post/15300645787/data-data-
everywhere-and-not-a-drop-of-value
8 DATA-BASED DECISION MAKING AND DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
Digital data
Digital
content
Information
Qualitative
Big data
Actionable
knowledge Structured data
Unstructured data
Knowledge
Quantitative
Figure 2.1 Data concept map: Big data, data, information, and
knowledge
Operational tasks
Focus on specific technologies
Explore cloud and distributed
databases
Identify key skilled staff
Identify opportunities for data
integration
Implement digital governance
Tactical tasks
Build internal digital management
capabalities
Digitization of existing and new
business processes
Establish data governance
processes
Integrate business function with IT
Strategic tasks
Define a digital vision
Establish digital leadership
Reinvent business model(s)
Rethink business processes
Redefine and improve stakeholder
engagement
Digital transformation Define a digital governance strategy
Value
maturity Choosing and completing transformation tasks
What? Why?
Who? When?
Where? How?
Why ... ? questions are the most perplexing and most troublesome.
By asking why, a person is expecting a reason for an action or event or an
explanation of something that has occurred. Asking and answering why
questions are important in problem solving. Understanding causes and
motivations helps us understand a decision situation. In general, a “why”
question supports reasoning or informs a decision question. For example,
examine this question, “Why did sales decline in the last quarter?” This
diagnostic question seeks to know the cause of a problem so that perhaps
a decision can be made about how to remove the cause and reduce the
negative consequences. A person may ask multiple “Why” questions in a
decision situation prior to or after asking a key decision question, that is,
“How can the decline in sales be stopped or reversed?”
When ... ? refers to time. One wants information about the time or
timing of events or actions. The Cambridge English Dictionary notes
“We can use when to ask for information about what time something
happens.” So a decision maker may want to know about past, present or
future time, that is, “When did sales start to decline?” “When should the
new sales and marketing plan be implemented?” Some When questions
imply a decision is needed while others are informational. Helper words
like will and should can indicate whether information or a decision
is sought.
How ... ? much or how many or how can. How is sometimes the indi-
cator of a decision question. For example, similar to the prior discussion
we might ask “How can we stop the sales decline?” or “How many people
will attend the event?” or “How do we contact customers?” Some how
questions are requesting an estimate or conclusion. For example, “How
much will a new production facility cost?” Many questions that begin
with the how keyword request information rather than a decision, that is,
“How do I find XXX?”
Where ... ? refers to location and place. The where question word
seems to be primarily an indicator of a need for information about
location, that is, “Where will the event be held?” or “Where is the sales-
person?” The first location question may involve a decision if phrased
with the should helper word, that is, “Where should the event be held?”
Finally, there comes Who ... ? the who keyword may indicate a request
for information or a need to make a decision. For example, “Who is the
Decision Making and Digital Transformation 17
even if that is the choice criterion the decision maker still requires facts.
Consulting mystics/fortune-tellers fell into disfavor long ago. Today most
decision makers have increased access to more and better data in near
real time almost anywhere in the world. This new reality has changed
the decision support possibilities. Managers can make better fact-based
decisions if they choose to develop the decision support capabilities
and infrastructure.
Becoming a data-informed, or data-centric organization has become
a priority for many managers. Analytics and decision support must be
aligned with business strategy to realize benefits from digital transfor-
mation. Pushing for more data and more analytics without a strategic
fit is folly. Organizations and managers need to understand what they
are trying to achieve. Decision support initiatives fail when there is poor
alignment with the business strategy.
Organizations can empower employees with access to relevant data
and analytics. The key is to provide relevant data when it is needed to
make a decision. The decision maker remains central to decision tak-
ing, but technology and analytics support are enhanced for data-based
decision making. Providing data does not mean however it will be used
properly or even used. Training and reward systems are key to making the
new decision support capabilities a factor in improving organizational
performance.
The term digital data refers to facts, figures, and digital content cap-
tured in information systems. Raw data are the bits and bytes stored elec-
tronically. Data may be streaming to a decision maker or retrieved from
a static data store. Figuring out what data is relevant and what that data
means in a decision situation can be challenging. Data can overwhelm a
decision maker and can mislead. Data-based decision making requires
anticipating data and analysis needs and providing the opportunity to
request and analyze additional data. Analytics involves processes for iden-
tifying and communicating patterns, derived conclusions and facts. Deci-
sion support and analytics must provide timely and useful information
for benefits of digital transformation to be realized.
Using data in decision making must become part of an organiza-
tion’s culture. The quest for understanding, formalizing, and prioritizing
important decision questions, and then capturing and making available
Decision Making and Digital Transformation 19
Summary
Creating a data-centric organization where managers make data-based
decisions has both technology and human resource challenges. Technol-
ogy challenges continue to evolve as more data and better, easier to use
analytic tools become available. The human resource challenge involves
retraining and motivating current employees to use analytics, model-
driven, and data-driven decision support.
Digital transformation does not occur quickly, rather it is a journey.
We know that factors other than data availability influence choices. With-
out data and facts, then luck and chance dominate outcomes in situations.
Chapter 3 examines how using data and information underpin data-based
decision making which is also the key to more effective decision making.
CHAPTER 3
real business problems. One can read a variety of case studies about how
using data can improve decisions in many domains including education,
retail sales, health care, and financial services. Using more data and ana-
lytics is often identified as the key to success in these situations.
A number of phrases have been used by authors and consultants
to describe the increasing use of data to improve decision making in
organizations. The word data is modified as data-based, data-driven, or
sometimes data-informed decision making. These phrases are often used
interchangeably to refer to an improved organizational decision support
capability. While the terms are related, there are important differences.
After reviewing prior usage, we find it most useful to focus on data-based
decision making. We consider each of these concepts as mutually exclu-
sive, but in some situations complementary. For managers to meaningfully
engage with data opportunities and challenges they need to understand
how these decision making approaches can be formulated, managed and
exploited as part of an organizational digital transformation strategy. Let’s
examine these three approaches to using data in decision making.
Data-based decision making refers to an ongoing process of collecting
and analyzing different types of data to aid in decision making (Power
2017). Decisions are based on data facts, values and vision, intuition,
and ethical guidelines. Data-based decision making usually incorporates
many diverse data types from a variety of sources including quantitative
data balanced with “softer” data that is more descriptive in nature. Data-
based decisions are primarily based on data, but analysis and judgment
are also very important. Ethical decision making should be incorporated
in data-based decision making. Decision makers should apply moral
rules, codes, or principles to guide choices for right and truthful behavior.
Data-driven decision making or data-driven management is widely
used in articles, consultant reports, white papers and more recently in
academic research papers to characterize a particular type of decision
making. Data-driven decision making refers to the collection and anal-
ysis of data to make decisions, but the data determines the action. Data
“drive” the decision making and decisions are made using verifiable data.
Some consider data-driven as synonymous with business intelligence,
while other authors link the phrase to decision automation. Provost and
Fawcett (2013) define data-driven decision making very broadly as “the
Data-Based Decision Making 23
this topic. More data and easier to use analytical tools provide an oppor-
tunity for improving operational decision making, but many managers
must learn new behaviors and skills to actually use data and analyses effec-
tively. Generally, managers must expand their skill sets to use data and
analysis effectively. Data-based decision making requires a specialized skill
set in addition to other decision making skills.
Organizations that embrace measurement have a data-centric culture.
This encourages and rewards managers for making decisions based on
meaningful data, rather than solely based on intuition, cf., Kanter (2013).
Managers must enhance and refine their understanding of the possibili-
ties of data analysis. Managers must strive to understand the meaning of
frequently used analyses. Also, managers must be rewarded for incorpo-
rating results of data and analysis into their thinking about a situation.
Shea, Santos, and Byrnes (2012) differentiate between data-driven
and data supported decisions. They note both processes use quantitative
and qualitative data to inform and make decisions. Supposedly data-
supported decisions “use the same data but they also take into account
people, issues, ethics, and broader system effects.” They caution that an
excessive “data driven” emphasis can contribute to ethical blind spots
poor decisions. Data-based decision making can and should incorporate
ethics and ethical decision making.
Using data and analyses is sometimes challenging. Rob Enderle
(2013; 2014), a technology analyst, provides examples of what he consid-
ered poor use of data and analyses at IBM, Microsoft, and Siemens. For
example, he reports Microsoft’s internal market research organization was
providing executives with “results that made decisions they had already
made look smarter.” Hindsight can suggest data distortion and misuse,
but based on his personal experience he observed “a surprisingly small
number of the companies that sell analytics tools actually rely on those
tools for major decisions.”
Blogger Kalie Moore (2014) at Business Intelligence software vendor
datapine.com raises a similar issue. She writes “insights we provide are
completely useless if, at the end of the day, these reports are ignored by
the actual decision makers.” Moore felt business leaders were not using
data in decision making for three reasons: (1) overreliance on past expe-
rience, (2) going with their gut and cooking the data, and (3) cognitive
Data-Based Decision Making 27
biases. These are serious concerns. There are ways to overcome biased
behavior, but managers must become aware of their own biases and the
problem resulting from specific biases. Managers must develop reflective
skills, especially regarding biases in data use, to become effective data-
based decision makers. Reflective skills means thinking about or reflecting
on what you do.
Data analyses can be used to bolster and provide biased confirmation
of previously made decisions. Also, analyses can be requested that support
biased rationalizing of decisions. Skilled data-based decision makers must
learn to reserve judgment and postpone a final choice until the available facts
are presented and evaluated. A decision should then be made that incorpo-
rates and reconciles the facts.
So what are the specialized data analytics decision skills managers and
decision makers need? The primary skills seem to broadly encompass:
(1) collecting and identifying relevant data, (2) using software to per-
form statistical analysis including charting of data, (3) interpreting data
and analyses in the context of an actual decision situation, and (4) using
analyses of data, including sensitivity analyses, to inform decisions. Let’s
review these skills briefly.
Summary
More efficient and effective managerial decision making is difficult
to achieve in an increasingly complex, data intensive, digital business
ecosystem. Stakeholders, including shareholders, senior management,
customers, and partners, have high expectations for better results and
continue to want more value.
Increasing and improving data-based decision making is key to
successfully implementing a digital transformation vision. Some people
Data-Based Decision Making 33
1
Dykes, B. 2017. “Big Data: Forget Volume and Variety, Focus On Velocity.”
Forbes, June 28. https://forbes.com/sites/brentdykes/2017/06/28/big-data-forget-
volume-and-variety-focus-on-velocity/#5de2336f7d67
36 DATA-BASED DECISION MAKING AND DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
Basics of Analytics
Analytics is often described as the science of analysis and discovery. The
term refers to quantitative analysis of data. People who conduct analyses
and develop analytic applications are decision or data scientists. Analytics
refers to a broad set of tools and capabilities that provide decision support.
Analytic capabilities are important in data-driven and model-driven DSS
and analysis with quantitative and statistical tools is the focus of special
studies such as knowledge discovery or data mining.
Davenport and Harris (2007) define analytics as “extensive use of
data, statistical and quantitative analysis, exploratory and predictive
models, and fact-based management to drive decisions and actions. The
analytics may be input for human decisions or drive fully automated
decisions” (p. 7).
Analytics is a broad umbrella term that includes business analytics
and data analytics. Business analytics (BA) use data and analytics to
improve business operations and decision making. BA includes optimi-
zation techniques and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). Data analyt-
ics applies quantitative and statistical methods to analyze large, complex
organizational data sets. Managers need to understand the value of using
data analytics and the decision support capabilities made possible by
leveraging data.
Analytic applications have three main technology features: (1) data
management and retrieval, (2) mathematical and statistical analysis and
models, and (3) techniques for data visualization and display. Analytic
applications are used to process large amounts of structured and unstruc-
tured data to find patterns and provide information. Analyzing data can
be challenging and more data can increase the complexity of an analysis.
More data does not mean better analytics. Like all computerized systems,
for analytics to be useful the data must be accurate, complete, and repre-
sentative of the real world.
Some sources consider analytics as a subset of business intelligence
(BI), while some use the terms analytics and BI interchangeably, other
commentators are more specific and consider only reporting analyt-
ics as another name for BI. In this discussion, data-driven DSS and BI
are considered as reporting analytic applications. There are three major
Analytics and High-Velocity Decision Making 37
7. What general analytics solu- Solutions are in four categories: (1) Reporting and
tions should be implemented analytics, (2) Planning, budgeting and forecasting,
in organizations? (3) Predictive and advanced analytics, and
(4) Governance, risk and compliance analytics
analytics and visualization are both exciting and promising for data-
centric organizations.
BI and related technology initiatives attract a lot of attention from
technology experts, managers, consultants, and vendors. A recent survey
of BI professionals identified data discovery/visualization, self-service BI,
40 DATA-BASED DECISION MAKING AND DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
1. Business Experiments
Testing ideas is often a goal of data analytics. A business experiment
approach is used to test the validity of an idea. This may be a strategic
hypothesis, a new product package or a marketing campaign.
Davenport (2009) advocates a “test and learn” approach to conduct-
ing business experiments noting that experiment design is key to
generating a sound evidence base. We recommend using a business
experiment approach when seeking to test ideas systematically.
2. Causal Analysis
Finding causes helps understand a situation so changes or p rediction
is possible. Regression is a primary causal analysis tool that is u
seful
when understanding and/or prediction is required and adequate
data are available on plausible predictor variables. Regression is a
statistical tool for investigating the relationship between variables.
For example, managers might use regression analysis to understand
the causal r elationship between price and product demand. Use causal
analysis when a complex situation is data rich and managers want
better understanding.
3. Correlation Analysis
This is a statistical technique that allows managers to determine
whether there is a relationship between two separate variables. It also
helps to determine the strength of the relationship between the vari-
ables. We might use correlation analysis to understand if there is a
relationship between positive customer experience and customers sen-
sitivity to changes in the price of a product or service. Use correlation
analysis to explore relationships.
Analytics and High-Velocity Decision Making 43
4. Forecasting Analysis
This approach uses a time series of data values to forecast or predict
other values. For example, managers may use sales data from the past
to predict future sales values. Perform a forecasting analysis when the
primary goal is estimation of a variable(s) of interest at some specified
future date.
5. Scenario Analysis
Managers can consider “what-if ” questions by analyzing a variety of
possible future events or scenarios considering possible alternate out-
comes (Power and Heavin 2017). Use scenario analysis where there are
numerous possible course of action and a high degree of uncertainty
about the potential outcome.
6. Visual Analytics
Data can be analyzed in many ways and the simplest way is to create
a visual or graph as a means of identifying patterns or trends. This
is an interdisciplinary approach integrating data analysis with data
visualization and human interaction. For example, a sales manager
could use an interactive map to better understand customer purchas-
ing behaviors by region. Use data visualization when managers are
interested in directly deriving insights from large volumes of data.
As mentioned previously, business analytics and data analytics are
terms used interchangeably to describe a systematic process of purpose-
fully examining and using data sets with statistical and quantitative
models, and leveraging the capabilities of sophisticated algorithms and
technologies. Often the goal is to draw conclusions about the under-
lying meaning or implications of the data. Business analytics empha-
sizes business uses of analytics, while data analytics has a broader focus
across organizations and settings. There is no single best approach
for meeting every analysis goal. Once the most appropriate analyt-
ics approach for a specific situation is selected, a manager or analyst
must select analytics tools and technologies to conduct the analysis.
There are many analytics and decision support software tools available
and many of them are open source and widely available. Managers
should consider and evaluate the technologies currently available and
44 DATA-BASED DECISION MAKING AND DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
Data Data–based
analytics management
process of analyzing data in a way that leverages new data insights and
integrates them into the organization’s management and decision-making
processes. Shah et al. (2012) suggest that managers need to be better
trained to use new analytics tools, paying particular attention to building
analytics into managerial processes. If a balance is not achieved, managers
run the risk of investing in expensive analytics technologies that are not
used by managers. It is important to implement the “right” amount of
analytics to support a data-centric culture and that should lead to better
data-based decision making.
Rule 1: Know what kind of decision you are trying to make. Is it a Type 1
consequential and irreversible decision? or a Type 2 changeable and
reversible decision?
Bezos notes Type 1 decisions are
Bezos argues
I’ve been reminding people that it’s Day 1 for a couple of decades.
I work in an Amazon building named Day 1, and when I moved
buildings, I took the name with me. I spend time thinking about
this topic. ... Day 2 is stasis. Followed by irrelevance. Followed by
excruciating, painful decline. Followed by death. And that is why
it is always Day 1. .....
2
Note: We assume a “high judgment” individual is a person with experience and
good judgment.
3
Bezos “The opposite situation is less interesting and there is undoubtedly some
survivorship bias. Any companies that habitually use the light-weight Type 2 deci-
sion-making process to make Type 1 decisions go extinct before they get large.”
48 DATA-BASED DECISION MAKING AND DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
decisions. Easy for start-ups and very challenging for large orga-
nizations. The senior team at Amazon is determined to keep our
decision making velocity high. Speed matters in business—plus a
high-velocity decision making environment is more fun too.
Rule 7: Strive to have the spirit and the heart of a small company.
Bezos asks
Have you settled only for decision quality, or are you mindful of
decision velocity too? Are the world’s trends tailwinds for you?
Are you falling prey to proxies, or do they serve you? And most
important of all, are you delighting customers? We can have the
scope and capabilities of a large company and the spirit and heart
of a small one. But we have to choose it.
Individual
Societal Organizational
1. Context: Why was the data originally collected? How is the data
now being used? How far removed from the original context is its
new use? Is this a fair and appropriate use of this data?
2. Consent and Choice: What are the choices given to all stakeholders
involved? Do they know they are making a choice? Do they really
understand what they are agreeing to? Do they really have an oppor-
tunity to decline? What alternatives are offered?
3. Reasonable: Is the data used and the relationships derived appropri-
ate and reasonable given the purpose it was collected for?
4. Substantiated: Are the sources of data used suitable, respected,
complete, and timely for the application?
Analytics and High-Velocity Decision Making 53
Summary
The path to digital transformation is not an easy or even a straight one.
More wide-spread adoption of analytics is a key element of digital trans-
formation for an organization. This chapter considered analytics and
decision support paying particular attention to the increasing need for
high-velocity decision making. Many tools including BI, analytics, and
decision support and other tools and technologies can be used to sup-
port the development of an ethical, data-based approach to organizational
decision making.
Amazon’s Jeff Bezos has pursued the development of a data-driven,
high-velocity decision making approach using analytics and decision
support to improve decision-making outcomes. He warns of the key
challenge for decision makers one-size-fits-all’ decision making.” Bezos’
approach advocates rapid decision making with less than complete infor-
mation, where the decision makers use their judgment to react quickly in
situations where a decision is reversible.
While this approach has seemingly worked well for Bezos, it
is important to consider the role of ethics in making decisions in
high-velocity environments. Perhaps there is an opportunity to build
questions, such as those proposed by Chessell (2014) into the decision
process. Ethical decision making is important for data-driven, data-based,
56 DATA-BASED DECISION MAKING AND DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
Implementing Digital
Transformation
Both a digital vision and implementing organization-wide actions are
important to digital transformation. Data-based decisions must also be
made about practical aspects of implementing digital technologies. This
chapter explores the how and what of implementing specific technolo-
gies in specific processes in an organization. In general, once the vision
is defined then technology shortfalls need to be determined. Investing in
technology that is not used or that is difficult to use is a problem to avoid.
To encourage agile development and rapid customized implementations
it is important to consider focusing initially on small-scale cloud-based
solutions. Buying large-scale, packaged solutions is fine for infrastruc-
ture changes like a new database environment, but such solutions are
rarely transforming.
Selecting appropriate technology is important to implementing
a digital vision, but the transformation of processes is also an import-
ant implementation concern. Everyone needs to be part of the task of
transforming work systems and processes not just IT staff. It is important
to broaden the availability of skills needed for implementing a digital
transformation vision across functions. Technology is an enabler, people
and processes must change to implement a new digital vision.
Also, agile processes1 are important when implementing a digital trans-
formation strategy. Plans must adjust quickly during implementation to
meet changing requirements. Establishing and encouraging a data-centric
organization culture must be an early goal as part of implementing new
processes and technologies. Promoting data-based decision making also
helps during implementation. Finally, implementation fails if customer
1
http://agilemanifesto.org/
58 DATA-BASED DECISION MAKING AND DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
needs did not inform the digital vision. Successful digital transformation
implementation requires constant collaboration with current and poten-
tial customers. In general, a digitally transformed business model values
meeting customer needs. Remember successful implementation of new
technologies for digital transformation requires commitment of all major
stakeholders. Keep stakeholders informed.
Digital transformation involves significant changes that result from
applying digital technology in new ways in an organization. For some
managers, the notion of digital transformation may be difficult and com-
plex to document, explain, and communicate. This chapter suggests a
number of ways to assess and increase the digital maturity of an organi-
zation. Complex technology innovations such as the Internet of Things
(IoT), cloud computing and storage, radio frequency identifiers (RFID),
blockchain, robotics, and mobile computing and telecommunications
devices are often an integral part of an organization’s digital transforma-
tion strategy. Opportunities for artificial intelligence (AI) and machine
learning (ML) in decision making are also often explored. Technologies
for data collection, storage, management, transfer, and analysis are at the
center of digital disruption. The following sections examine: (1) the dis-
tinctive features of digital transformation, (2) the role of data in digital
transformation, (3) fundamentals of data visualization, (4) understanding
data storytelling, and (5) using algorithms to turn data into actions.
it is clear that some organizations and certain industry sectors are fur-
ther along the journey than others. As the digital landscape continues to
evolve, new business models and technological shifts in areas such as AI,
ML, and IoT continue to drive organizational change and evolution.
A number of authors have examined digital transformation maturity.
Solis (2016) identified six distinct stages of digital transformation matu-
rity: (1) business as usual, (2) test and learn, (3) systemize and strategize,
(4) adapt or die, (5) transformed and transforming, and (6) innovate or
die. His report advocates “six key elements within the organization that
must undergo simultaneous transformation, Analytics, Customer Expe-
rience, Governance and Leadership, People and Operations, Technology
Integration, and Digital Literacy.” Managers should assess where the
organization is in terms of these stages. Ideally managers are moving the
organization strategically toward stage 6 where a culture of innovation
dominates managerial thinking.
Evans (2015) identified six steps that can result in digital transforma-
tion maturity. The steps are sequential and are likely to be repeated again
and again. Step 1: identify your transformation objectives. Step 2: study
technology enablers in the market. Step 3: envision the future platform
for digital business. Step 4: master the digital services lifecycle. Step 5:
organize for digital business innovation. Step 6: execute an agile journey
to the future platform. Do and Repeat.
Many vendors of technology products have suggested digital transfor-
mation steps, phases, life cycles or approaches. Kolander (2017), product
marketing manager at Laserfiche, noted “The concept of the digital work-
place has been around for some time, and the definition continues to
evolve with new and improved technologies.” He suggests five basic steps
are: (1) Digitize everything, (2) Organize data and use data in processes,
(3) Automate data collection and data processing, (4) Streamline busi-
ness processes—remove the waste, and (5) Transform the business, drive
innovation by leveraging analytics to align processes with business goals.
Digitizing everything is impractical, managers must have a realistic
vision for the transformed enterprise. Managers must have some idea about
needed changes in the current business model and processes that must
change to support the new business model. The real benefit of digital trans-
formation comes from using digital data to help make better decisions.
60 DATA-BASED DECISION MAKING AND DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
10. Can you analyze past data, especially to predict future outcomes?
11. Are content and data management and process automation strat-
egies aligned with organizational goals?
12. Is your organization an industry leader in implementing innova-
tive and technologically advanced process solutions?
relationship really exists in the data set and that it is meaningful and use-
ful to its intended user. Be cautious in data analysis and display and use a
supposition or hypothesis to guide a limited number of statistical tests for
significant relationships. A hypothesis is a tentative explanation that can
be tested. The dangers of undirected or unplanned data analysis are real
and it is easy for analysts to fall into the trap of testing so many relation-
ships that by chance they find a spurious or false relationship.
In data-based decision making, it is desirable to begin with a hypoth-
esis about a relationship and then find a data set that will allow us to test
the relationship. The data set needs to be sufficiently large or meaningful
and derived in a manner that does not have bias. The relationship must
be from the data and not an artifact of how the data was gathered. A data
analyst should begin with a descriptive analysis of a relevant data set.
Then test a limited number of hypotheses to reduce the chances we will
find a false or chance relationship. The scientific approach provides safe
guards to insure the repeatability of the results and the truthfulness that
we should demand.
Data visualization can convey incorrect information as well as show
meaningful relationships. It is important that everyone associated with
creating and interpreting a visualization uses caution in choosing the visu-
alization tools and in interpreting the results. Visualization should tell
an accurate story. The presence of a powerful visualization can actually
hinder our data-based decision making if we are misled to think that
something is true when in fact it is false.
We begin a data-based decision making process with a question we
want to ask and a hypothesized answer. For example, we want to know:
Who are our best customers? We think that married women with chil-
dren are our best customers. The preliminary statement helps define data
we need to analyze to verify a relationship. So we need to obtain purchase
and demographic data and then find tools that will let us test the relation-
ship. The visualization alone is not enough, we must use statistical tests
to ensure that the relationship shown in the visualization is meaningful.
We need to correct for the bias that would lead us to incorrectly conclude
that a relationship exists when in fact it does not exist. We don’t want a
false positive—a type I error—anymore that we want a type II error—a
false negative.
64 DATA-BASED DECISION MAKING AND DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
Data
visualization Narrative
Data
story
Audience
Story
2
Bezos “Obsessive Customer Focus” Key to Winning. https://amazon.com/p/
feature/z6o9g6sysxur57t
Implementing Digital Transformation 69
Step 1.
Identify
business Step 3.
problem Step 2. Evaluate
Identify business
relevant actions
data
they achieve business goals rather than salary savings (Madhavan 2018;
Shein 2018).
Summary
Digital transformation will look different for every business. This chapter
examined digital transformation maturity. Also, it emphasized two
fundamental tools of data-based decision making. First, data visualiza-
tion is defined and various approaches to effective data visualization are
reviewed. Visualizing data means that we can see relationships in the data
if they exist. Data-based decision making helps to insure we effectively
examine the data. We need effective data analysis and not just effec-
tive data visualization. Edward Tufte (1983; 2001) wrote a classic on
advanced data visualization that can guide us. Second, in a world evolv-
ing from digital transformation, many of our decision analyses can be
characterized as “data stories.” Data visualization and data storytelling
are means to improve data-based decision making. Part of implement-
ing a digital transformation strategy is successfully improving the way
data is used in decision making—that means increased data visualiza-
tion and more effective data storytelling. Finally, AI tools like machine
learning algorithms can be key elements in using data as part of a digital
transformation strategy. To gain benefits, it is particularly important
to tackle important organizational business problems through focused
actions that leverage organizational talent and data to drive more efficient
and effective business models.
CHAPTER 6
Type 2 decision varies, but use the data you have, analyze it, develop a
data story, share the story and get feedback, then go for it. Commit and
implement. Many of these operational and tactical decisions should be a
priority for implementing advanced analytics and algorithms. we need to
find ways to make the decision better and faster.
Strategic, Type 1 decisions deserve and require more thoughtful
data-based and data-informed decision making. New data may need to
be collected and analyzed. Implementation and commitment may need
to be made in stages. Knowing that a decision once made and imple-
mented cannot be reversed is a daunting thought. There is no going back.
The decision to digitally transform an organization is a Type 1 decision.
Craft a vision for digital transformation and analyze it carefully, then
senior managers must decide and make a commitment to the vision.
Middle-level managers will and should be responsible for the related
Type 1 and Type 2 decisions that must be made to realize the digital
vision in that specific organization. Developing a clearly stated vision
statement and writing a scenario describing the transformed organization
will help guide s ubsequent data-based decision making.
Many busy managers want to grasp the basics of analytics, data-based
decision making, and digital transformation. That quest has begun. Prior
chapters discussed decision making and digital transformation, data-based
decision making, analytics and high-velocity decision making, and finally
implementing digital transformation. The overall goal for prior chapters
has been to help managers become more knowledgeable about the what,
how, and why of data-based decision making. One hopes greater aware-
ness of the importance of data-based decision making will help managers
better assess, choose, and successfully implement digital transformation
competitive opportunities.
Figure 6.1 depicts the factors that are determining the w inners and
losers in the race to implement digital transformation visions and strat-
egies. The basic relationships in the model identify data-based d ecision
making as the key independent factor that can alter outcomes and results
in organizations including successful implementation of a digital trans-
formation vision. The relationship is moderated primarily by align-
ment of organizational elements, adequate and appropriate resources, a
skilled team, and the digital transformation vision itself. Characteristics
Finding a Way Forward 73
Moderators
Alignment
Alignment of organization with digital
transformation strategy
Organization bureaucracy, policies, processes,
technology capabilities, organization culture
Resources
Financial resources and constraints
Skilled team
Decision maker(s) ability, age, years of
experience, qualifications, and training
Vision
Ethics, values, and vision
1
Bob Johansen http://iftf.org/bobjohansen
Finding a Way Forward 75
The path to digital maturity is neither short nor easy, the path often
involves a steep learning curve, some waste, and false starts. Embark-
ing on a digital transformation journey must start with experimentation
and innovation. Data must be captured and analyzed to determine what
worked and what aspects of the change need revision or even elimina-
tion. A digital transformation vision and strategy should have broad scope
and ambitious objectives. Digitally immature organizations need to have
decision makers who focus broadly on technology and have strategies that
are not only operational in focus.
Third, the new skills managers must develop include analyzing data,
visualizing data and data storytelling. Every manager does not need to
be a data scientist, rather every manager should strive to be an intelli-
gent consumer of the new skills managers must develop include analyzing
data, visualizing data and data storytelling.
Finally, we will know an organization has been successfully trans-
formed when a data-centric culture is entrenched, when data-based
decision making is rewarded, when the organization is reporting strong
performance and results over a few years, and when performance exceeds
that of organizations serving the same or similar needs. We want to create
a self-reinforcing cycle of ongoing digital transformation where successful
change leads to further success.
Agility is the way forward to find a successful digital transformation.
Following a plan for digital transformation is important, but adapting
the plan quickly to changing requirements and needs is more important.2
Enjoy the digital journey!
2
http://agilemanifesto.org/
Glossary
Algorithm economy—algorithms enable computing machines to make
sense of data and use it. Developing them for purposes of distribution and
resale is a recent activity. Companies are monetizing these algorithms to
realize their economic value.
Big data—very large data volumes that are complex and varied, and often
collected and must be analyzed in real time.
Provost, F., and T. Fawcett. March 2013. “Data Science and Its Relationship
to Big Data and Data-driven Decision Making.” Big Data 1, no. 1, March
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big.2013.1508
Provost, F., and T. Fawcett. March 2013. “Data Science and Its Relationship
to Big Data and Data-driven Decision Making,” Big Data 1, no. 1, March
15, 2018 from URL http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/pdf/10.1089/
big.2013.1508
Setia, P., V. Venkatesh, and S. Joglekar. 2013. “Leveraging Digital Technologies:
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Shah, S., A. Horne, and J. Capella. 2012. “Good Data Won’t Guarantee You
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good-data-wont-guarantee-good-decision
Shea, J., J. Jones Santos, and P. Byrnes. November 2012. “Community Needs
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Responsive and Effective Health Centers.” National Association of Community
Health Centers, February 18, 2018 from URL http://nachc.com/client/
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https://cio.com/article/3252338/artificial-intelligence/winning-the-war-for-
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Tchakirides, D. 2011. “Principles of Visual Design,” Slideshow, January 21,
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Techopedia.com 2018. “What does Data-Driven Decision Making (DDDM)
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The Free Dictionary 2003. “Hard Data is Defined as Data in the Form of
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Index
Agility, 75 data, information, and knowledge,
AI. See Artificial intelligence 7–8
Algorithm economy, 67 decisions and decision support,
Analytics 8–11
applications, 36 description of, 3, 5–7
basics of, 36–38 digital transformation impacts,
business, 36 12–14
current trends in, 38–41 ethical challenges, 51–55
data, 36 high-velocity, 46–51
data-based decision making, 44–46 key skills, 25–28
decision guide for implementing, modern decision support
39 applications, 11
definition of, 36 right questions, 15–17
predictive, 37 steps for developing, 28–30
prescriptive, 37 Data-centric organization, 17–19
reporting, 36–37 Data concept map, 8
stakeholders, 51–52 Data-driven decision making, 21–24
tools and technologies, 41–44 Data-driven DSS, 10
visual, 43–44 Data-informed decision making,
Artificial intelligence (AI), 67–69 21–24
Data storytelling, 64–66
BA. See Business analytics Data visualization, 62–64
Big Data, 2, 7–8 Decision support systems (DSS), 10
Business action loop, 69–70 Digital disruption, 3–4, 71
Business analytics (BA), 36 Digitally immature organizations, 75
Business experiments, 42 Digital transformation
Business intelligence, 36 assessment tool, 60–61
challenges, 21
Causal analysis, 42 description of, 5, 57–58
Communication-driven DSS, 10 features of, 58–61
Competitive advantage, 30–32 impact on data-based decision
Computerized decision support, making, 2–3
24–25 role of data, 61–62
Correlation analysis, 42 stages of maturity, 59
Digital workplace, 59
Document-driven DSS, 10
Data analytics, 36
DSS. See Decision support systems
Data-based decision making
analytics, 44–46
competitive advantage, 30–32 Ethical challenges, 51–55
computerized decision support,
24–25 Forecasting analysis, 43
92 Index
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