Department of WSIE

Water Institute
(WI)

WRU07212: Hydrological Analysis and Design

Flood Frequency Analysis

Part 1
 Definition of Flood

A flood can be defined from various points of view such as:

Geomorphology:
A flood is a flow that overtops the natural or artificial banks of a stream

Water management:
- A flood is the interference of the flow excess with human activity.
- It is measured by actual or potential economic damage and danger to
human life.

Hydrology:
A flood is a discharge wave moving downstream in a channel whereby
the water level, water surface slope, velocity and discharge are
changing with distance and time.
 Causes of Floods

• Natural sources are rainfall and water released by melting from snow
and ice.
• Bank erosion, rising of river beds by deposition of silt and changing
of the river course may result to flooding.
• At special occasions, short-term rise in water level may result from
ice, debris and boulders blocking the cross-section of a stream.
• Under normal circumstances, the floods in big river basins result
from great amount of rainfall within several days, while for the small
watersheds the floods may result from precipitation of local extent.
 Man made influences

Man-kind is responsible in changing the natural conditions of basin

storage through the following interventions.

 Sealing by urbanization
 Changing land-use
 Changing forest to arable land
 Straightening and impoundment of water courses
 Reduction of natural flooding areas.
 FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

General
• Occurrence of large floods can cause damage to Civil Engineering
structures (including Water resources Systems) and loss to life

• Designs for flood control works, dam spillway, bridges, culverts,

storm drainage, and other hydraulic structures are based on flood
magnitudes of specified frequency/probability of failure

• Statistical techniques are used to estimate frequencies/probabilities

of occurrences/risks of large floods
Objective of Flood Frequency Analysis

Magnitude of river Recurrence interval

Peak Flows (Q) or Return period (T)

From data at flow gauging stations

Recurrence Interval/ Return Period (T)

• It is an expression of the frequency of
occurrence of a flood of a certain magnitude
• It is defined as the average time interval which
a flood of specified magnitude is equaled or
exceeded
 Approach to Flood frequency analysis

• The Q -T relationship, i.e., the relationship between the

flood magnitude (Q) and its return period (T) can be
estimated from the analysis of observed flood peaks.
• For the analysis to be valid, the flood peaks, under
consideration, must be of random magnitude and
mutually independent.
• Given the usual shortness in observed flood records,
extrapolation of frequency functions is quite uncertain so
that the larger the flood and the greater the hazard it
represents, the less reliable is the estimate of the
frequency with which the flood is likely to occur.
 Important Definitions
• Probability density function (pdf), f(x) – This is a function which gives
the probability of occurrence of an event
• Cumulative distribution function (cdf), F(x) – This is a function which
gives the probability of occurrence of all events that are equal or less than
a specified event.
• Non-exceedance probability, F(x) – This is the probability of occurrence
of all events that are equal to or less than a specified event
• Exceedance probability, [1-F(x)]–This is the probability of occurrence of
all events that are equal to or greater than a specified event
• The return period (T), also known as recurrence interval, is an
expression of the frequency of occurrence of a flood of a certain
magnitude.
• Return period is defined as the average time interval between the
occurrences of an event equal to or greater than.
• Flood magnitude is generally designated by the peak discharge (Q).
Atypical shape of (pdf) and (cdf)
 Data Relevant for FFA

Annual Maximum series (AM)

• The series consists of the peak flow of each year and

it is the most frequent used series
• One of the aspects in favour of the AM series is the
reasonable assumption that the data is not serially
correlated
• A disadvantage of AM series is that the second or
third, etc, highest event in a particular year may be
higher than the maximum event in another year and
yet these values are totally disregarded
 Data Relevant for FFA

Partial Duration Series (PD)

• The series consists of peaks exceeding the threshold

q0.
• The PD includes all events above a certain base
magnitude, i.e., the disadvantage of disregarding
some of the significant high events in any particular
year in AM series is remedied
• Each event that is included in the PD series must be
separate and distinct
 Daily Flows Peaks over Threshold Annual Maximum Values
450

400

350

300
Flow magnitudes (Cumecs)

250

200

150

100

50

0
1/1/1980 12/31/1980 12/31/1981 12/31/1982 12/31/1983 12/30/1984
Time in Days
Estimation of Frequency/Probability of occurrence of an Event
Analytical Approach
• The concept of theoretical distribution is employed
• A distribution is a set of values that occur under fixed conditions in an infinite
amount of time
• A distribution can be used to give probabilities of occurrences in the population
• For a random variable X, the cumulative distribution function (cdf) denoted as
F(x), is the probability the random variable X is less than or equal to the value x,
i.e., F(x) = P(X = or  x)
• F(x) is referred to as non-exceedance probability, i.e., it is the probability of
occurrence of events that are equal to or less than a specified event.
• The complement of F(x), i.e., [1-F(x) ] is referred to as exceedance probability.
This is the probability of occurrence of all events that are equal to or greater
than a specified event Pr (X  x).
• The reciprocal of the exceedance probability is the return period, T, i.e.,
T = 1/(1-F(x))
• Flood magnitude QT corresponding to the design return period T are estimated
from records from gauging stations using statistical distributions
 Statistical Distributions to Estimate Flood Magnitudes

• Log-Pearson type III distribution

• Gumbel Distribution/Extreme Value type I (EV1) distribution
• Lognormal distribution
• Normal distribution
• Pearson type III distribution
• Gamma distribution
• General Extreme Value distribution
• General Pareto
• Log-logistic

 In this course, we will focus only on the first three

distributions
 Method of Parameter Estimation
a. Method of moments (MOM)
The method of moments is one of the most commonly and simply
used method for estimating the parameters of a statistical
distribution. In most cases the first three central moments , i.e., the
mean, standard deviation (variance) and skewness are adequate to
estimate the required parameters.
𝑛
2  𝑛 = number of samples
σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥ҧ
𝜎𝑛−1 = ෍  𝑥 = variate
𝑥ҧ = 𝑛−1
𝑛 𝑖=1  𝑥ҧ = sample mean
 𝜎𝑛−1 = sample stdev
 𝐶𝑠 = skewness
𝑛 σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥ҧ 3
𝐶𝑠 =  𝑖 = index
𝑛−1 𝑛−2 𝜎𝑛−1 3
 Aplication of Statistical Distributions
i. Log-Pearson type III distribution
ii. Extreme value type I/Gumbel Distribution
iii. Log-normal Distribution
 Log-Pearson type III distribution
 The Log-Pearson Type III distribution is a
statistical technique for fitting frequency
distribution data to predict the design flood for a
river at some site
 Once the statistical information is calculated for
the river site, a frequency distribution can be
constructed
 The probabilities of floods of various sizes can be
extracted from the curve
 Log-Pearson type III distribution…
 The Log-Pearson Type III distribution is calculated using the
general equation:
𝑙𝑛𝑥 = 𝑙𝑛𝑥 + 𝐾 𝑇,𝐶𝑠 𝜎𝑙𝑛𝑥
 Where x is the flood discharge value of some specified probability
 𝑙𝑛𝑥 is the average of the 𝑙𝑛𝑥 discharge values
 𝐾 𝑇,𝐶𝑠 is a frequency factor. It is a function of the skewness
coefficient and return period and can be found using the frequency
factor table
 𝜎𝑙𝑛𝑥 is the standard deviation of the 𝑙𝑛𝑥 values
𝑛 2
σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑙𝑛𝑥𝑖 𝑙𝑛𝑥𝑖 − 𝑙𝑛𝑥
𝑙𝑛𝑥 = 𝜎𝑙𝑛𝑥 = ෍
𝑛 𝑛−1
𝑖=1
 Log-Pearson type III distribution…
3
𝑛 σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑙𝑛𝑥𝑖 − 𝑙𝑛𝑥
𝐶𝑠 =
𝑛−1 𝑛−2 𝜎𝑛−1 3
 The advantage of this particular technique is that extrapolation can
be made of the values for events with return periods well beyond
the observed flood events.
Question: The annual maximum discharge values from river Mbarali
at Igawa, Tanzania, for the years 1965 - 1976 are as follows, in
m3/sec, 826.84, 402.57, 630.67, 575.73, 467.79, 263.01, 121.83,
263.01, 317.89, 197.06, 324.34, 151.22.
Calculate estimates of flood magnitudes, 𝑄𝑇 for T = 2 and 50 years,
under the assumptions of Log-Pearson type 3 distribution
Log-Pearson type III distribution…
 Extreme Value type I /Gumbel Distribution

𝑥−𝑢
− 𝛼
𝐹 𝑥 = 𝑒 −𝑒

Where, 𝐹(𝑥) = non-exceedance probability, 𝑥 = design flood,

𝑢 = Location parameter, 𝛼 = Scale parameter

Prediction equation: 𝑥𝑇 = 𝑢 + 𝛼𝑦𝑇

𝑥−𝑢
Where, 𝑥𝑇 = Flow magnitude, 𝑦𝑇 = Frequency factor 𝛼

−𝑒 −𝑦𝑇
F x =𝑒
Parameter Estimation (MoM)
Mean, 𝑥= ҧ u + 0.5772
St. deviation, 𝜎𝑛−1 = 1.28
Frequency Factors for Gumbel Distribution
Return Non- Exceedance Frequency
Period, exceedance probability, Factor, yT
T (years) probability, [1-F(x)]
F(x)
2 0.5 0.5 0.37
5 0.8 0.2 1.50
10 0.9 0.1 2.25
15 0.93 0.07 2.67
20 0.95 0.05 2.97
25 0.96 0.04 3.20
50 0.98 0.02 3.90
100 0.99 0.01 4.60
200 0.995 0.005 5.30
500 0.998 0.002 6.21
1000 0.999 0.001 6.91
Extreme Value type I /Gumbel Distribution…..

Question 1:
Given a series of peak floods at a gauging site are assumed to be EV1
distributed with mean = 200 m3/sec and standard deviation = 60
m3/sec. Calculate the peak flow which has
(a) Non-exceedance probability of 0.8
(b) Non-exceedance probability of 0.15
(c) Exceedance probability of 0.10
(d) What value of exceedance probability has Q = 275 m3/sec
(e) What value of non-exceedance probability has Q = 150 m3/sec
 Log-Normal distribution
 If the logarithm of the variable x follows the Normal distribution,
the variable x itself is said to have a lognormal distribution which
is calculated using the general equation:

𝑙𝑛𝑥 = 𝑙𝑛𝑥 + 𝑧𝑇 𝜎𝑙𝑛𝑥

𝑛 2
𝑙𝑛𝑥𝑖 − 𝑙𝑛𝑥 𝑙𝑛𝑥 − 𝑙𝑛𝑥 σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑙𝑛𝑥𝑖
𝜎𝑙𝑛𝑥 = ෍ 𝑧𝑇 = 𝑙𝑛𝑥 =
𝑛−1 𝜎𝑙𝑛𝑥 𝑛
𝑖=1

 Where x is the flood discharge value of some specified probability

 𝑙𝑛𝑥 is the average of the 𝑙𝑛𝑥 discharge values
 𝑍𝑇 is a frequency factor (reduced variate). It can be found from the
standard normal distribution table
 𝜎𝑙𝑛𝑥 is the standard deviation of the 𝑙𝑛𝑥 values
Log-Normal distribution….
Frequency factors for use in the Log-Normal

Return Reduced variate, zT

Period, T (for log-normal
distribution)
2 0.00
5 0.84
10 1.28
25 1.75
50 2.05
100 2.33
1000 3.09
Question 2
In connection with the design of a culvert near Kisarawe, the Annual
Maximum discharge data for the stream to be drained, are available at
a gauging station located close to the site where the culvert is to be
constructed. The data are summarized in the table below
Required:
Year Peak flow i) Determine the design flood with probability
(m3/sec) of failure once in 25 years under the
1995 14 assumption that the observed data follows
1996 17
1997 23 a) Gumbel Distribution
1998 27 b) Log-Normal Distribution
1999 9
2000 6 c) Log-Pearson type III Distribution
2001 8
2002 10
2003 19
2004 12
 Risk of Failure
• The decision of what return period is
appropriate for the design of a particular project is
not solely a hydrological problem. Constraints
usually considered include: Economic, Political
& Environmental
• Improvement on the safety or reliability of the
scheme has implications on the costs of the
project
• It is however important to consider the
probability, or risk, of the design flood being
exceeded during the expected life of the project
 Estimation of Risk of Failure
Example:
Suppose the design event has a return period of T years and the
projected life period of the project is L years

• The corresponding annual probability of exceedance, p is given

as p = 1/T
• The probability of non-occurrence in any one year q, is given as
q = (1-1/T)
• The probability of non-occurrence in L years is q = (1-1/T)L
• The probability that the flood magnitude Q will occur at least
once in the L years is r =1-(1-1/T) L
• The value of r is the risk of failure, the flood Q will be exceeded
in the L years of the projected life of the project
Question 3
The mean and standard deviation of the annual
flood time series of Kikuletwa river are 1000 m3/s
and 350 m3/s respectively. Determine the flood
magnitude in the river with probability of
occurrence at least once within next 10 years of
13.86%. Use Gumbel’s method and assume the
sample size to be very large [5 marks]
 Flood mitigation Measures
• The complete elimination of floods is an impossible task, but
damages can be reduced by taking preventive measures.
• Whatever measures which have to be considered to control floods,
they have to be guided by the principle to minimise human
interferences on the river regime.
• Further more, the different measures must be integrated into all
interdisciplinary water resources management plans of the river
basin.
• The final decision in adopting a flood damage reduction
programme is a political issue which will take into consideration
economic, social and cultural values and environmental effects.
• Possible measures which can be considered to reduce flood
damage are presented below.
 Flood mitigation measures
Maintain water retention areas
Restoration of inundation plains and natural river system, maintaining and
promoting small-scale structures for water retention in the land scape.

Maintain the natural water ways

To secure discharge capacity of the water course, flooded areas and flow
paths must be maintained and for ecological reasons be enlarged.

Flood protection
Construction of dikes, walls, retention basins and reservoirs may provide
protection against the dangers of floods up to a certain design flood level.
 Flood mitigation measures
Flood zoning
Technical flood protection does not guarantee absolute safety. A detailed flood
risk map must be prepared. In order to reduce the flood damage potential, the
flood zoning map should indicate activities allowed to be undertaken on the
map. For example no construction permits should be issued in flood-prone
areas.

Catchment management
Conservation of natural forests and afforestation has the effect of increasing
infiltration because vegetation cover retards surface flow, giving the water
additional time to enter the soil. This results in reducing the discharge peaks.

Increase the awareness of flood risk

The society has to be informed of the threat of floods as part of the awareness
of the natural conditions on water courses and where necessary be advised to
construct houses which are flood proof.
 Flood mitigation measures
Flood warning system
•The flood warning system is a tool which can be used to give a warning
of an extreme flood event.
•The forecast is usually made on the basis of rainfall-runoff
transformation model using raingauge measurements or else by means of
models simulating flood wave propagation using the measurement of
water levels in some significant hydrometric sections.
•Forecasts of short lead time like one day forecast is more accurate but it
is less useful because it doesn’t give much time for preparation to
evacuate people from a floodplain for example.
•The development of the flood forecasting system therefore should aim to
try to achieve greater levels of accuracy in forecasts of higher lead time so
as the appropriate measures to be taken to reduce flood damage in an
event of a big flood.