Chapter 9

one & two sample Estimation

problems

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Point estimate :

If we wish to estimate the mean μ of a population

for which a census is impractical, a reasonable
strategy is to take a sample, compute its mean 𝑥,ҧ
And hence 𝜇 = 𝑥ҧ
For example, if the average height of 100 randomly
selected men aged 18 is 70.6 inches, then we would
say that the average height of all 18-year-old men is
(at least approximately) 70.6 inches.

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Estimating a population parameter by a single
number like this is called point estimation;
in the previous ex.
the statistic 𝑥ҧ is a point estimate of the parameter
𝜇.

A problem with a point estimate is that it gives no

indication of how reliable the estimate is. In
contrast, in this chapter we learn about interval
estimation.

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interval estimation:

interval estimation for a population mean μ

we use a formula to compute from the data a
number E, called the margin of error of the estimate,
and form the interval [𝑥ҧ − 𝐸, 𝑥ҧ + 𝐸].
We do this in such a way that a certain proportion,
say 95%, of all the intervals constructed from sample
data by means of this formula contain the unknown
parameter μ. Such an interval is called a 95%
confidence interval for μ.

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For example: (the previous ex)
For a sample of 100 men 𝑥=70.6
ҧ inches and sample
standard deviation s = 1.7 inches.
E = 0.33 and 95% confident that the average height
of all 18-year-old men is in the interval formed by
70.6±0.33 inches, that is,

𝜇 ∈ [ 70.27 , 70.93 ] inches

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If the sample statistics had come from a smaller
sample, say a sample of 50 men, the lower reliability
would show up in the 95% confidence interval being
longer, hence less precise in its estimate.

In this example the 95% confidence interval for the

same sample statistics but with n = 50 is 70.6±0.47
inches,
𝜇 ∈ [ 70.13 , 71.07] inches.

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Large Sample Estimation of a Population Mean:

 Large Sample Estimation of a Population

Mean:

The following figure shows the intervals generated by

a computer simulation of drawing 40 samples from a
normally distributed population and constructing the
95% confidence interval for each one.

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8
Level of confidence:

It is standard to identify the level of confidence in

terms of the area α in the two tails of the
ഥ.
distribution of 𝒙

The level of confidence can be any number

between 0 and 100%, but the most common values
are probably 90% (α=0.10), 95% (α=0.05), and 99%
(α=0.01).

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This Figure shows the general situation. The z-value that cuts off a right tail of
𝜶
area is denoted by 𝒛𝜶/𝟐 .
𝟐

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This Figure shows the situation for 95% confidence. The z-value that cuts off a
right tail of area 0,025 is denoted by 𝒛𝜶/𝟐 = 1.960 for α=1−0.95=0.05.

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Where E : the margin of error of estimate.
𝑧𝛼/2 𝜎 𝑧𝛼/2 s
𝐸= 𝐸=
𝑛 𝑛

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Example:

Example:
Find the number zα∕2 needed in construction of a confidence
interval:
(1) when the level of confidence is 90%. (1.645)
(2) when the level of confidence is 99%. (2.575)

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Example:

Example:
A sample of size 49 has sample mean 35 and sample
standard deviation 14. Construct a 98% confidence
interval for the population mean.

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Example:

Example:
A random sample of 120 students from a large
university yields mean GPA 2.71 with sample standard
deviation 0.51. Construct a 90% confidence interval for
the mean GPA of all students at the university.

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 𝟐𝒛𝜶/𝟐 𝝈
• The length of (1 -𝜶 )100% confidence interval for equals
𝒏
and so it depends on is n, 𝝈 , and 𝜶.

1. As the sample size n increases, the length of the confidence

interval
decreases.

2. As the standard deviation 𝝈 which reflects the variability of the

distribution of individual observations, increases, the length of the
confidence interval increases.

3. As the confidence level desired increases (𝜶 decreases)

the length of the confidence interval increases .

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Example:
A confidence interval estimate is desired for the gain in a circuit on a
semiconductor device. Assume that gain is normally distributed with
standard deviation 𝝈 = 20.
1. Find a 95% CI for when n = 10 and x = 1000. Ans. (984.5, 1015.5)
2. Find a 95% CI for when n = 25 and x = 1000. Ans. (990.2, 1009.8)
3. Find a 99% CI for when n = 10 and x = 1000. Ans. (979.6, 1020.4)
4. Find a 99% CI for when n = 25 and x = 1000. Ans. (987.1, 1012.9)
How does the length of the CIs computed above change with the changes in
sample size and confidence level?

Ans. When n is larger, the CI is narrower. The higher the confidence level,
the wider the CI.

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Example:
A random sample has been taken from a normal distribution
and the
following confidence intervals constructed using the same
data:
(37:53; 49:87) and (35:59; 51:81)
1. What is the value of the sample mean?
2. One of these intervals is a 99% CI and the other is a 95% CI.
Which one is the 95% CI and why?

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19
Homework:

1. A random sample is drawn from a population of known standard deviation

11.3. Construct a 90% confidence interval for the population mean based on the
information given (not all of the information given need be used).

n = 36, 𝑥=105.2,
ҧ s = 11.2
n = 100, 𝑥=105.2,
ҧ s = 11.2

2. A random sample of size 144 is drawn from a population whose distribution,

mean, and standard deviation are all unknown. The summary statistics are
𝑥=58.2
ҧ and s = 2.6.

1. Construct an 80% confidence interval for the population mean μ.

2. Construct a 90% confidence interval for the population mean μ.
3. Comment on why one interval is longer than the other.

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Homework:

3. On every passenger vehicle that it tests an automotive magazine measures, at

true speed 55 mph, the difference between the true speed of the vehicle and the
speed indicated by the speedometer. For 36 vehicles tested the mean difference
was −1.2 mph with standard deviation 0.2 mph. Construct a 90% confidence
interval for the mean difference between true speed and indicated speed for all
vehicles.

4. A town council commissioned a random sample of 85 households to estimate

the number of four-wheel vehicles per household in the town. The results are
shown in the following frequency table.

Construct a 98% confidence interval for the average number of four-wheel

vehicles per household in the town.

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Homework:

5. In order to estimate the mean amount of damage sustained by vehicles when a

deer is struck, an insurance company examined the records of 50 such
occurrences, and obtained a sample mean of $2,785 with sample standard
deviation $221. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean amount of
damage in all such accidents.

6. A government agency was charged by the legislature with estimating the length
of time it takes citizens to fill out various forms. Two hundred randomly selected
adults were timed as they filled out a particular form. The times required had
mean 12.8 minutes with standard deviation 1.7 minutes. Construct a 90%
confidence interval for the mean time taken for all adults to fill out this form.

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