Chapter 4

Discrete Probability Distributions

4.1

Probability Distributions

Assoc. prof. Dr. Mohamed Al-Ashehab

Ass. Prof. Dr. Ahmed Fathi
Ass. Prof. Dr. Amjad S. Fudail
 Random Variables
A random variable x represents a numerical value
associated with each outcome of a probability distribution.

A random variable is discrete if it has a finite or countable

number of possible outcomes that can be listed.
x
0 2 4 6 8 10

A random variable is continuous if it has an uncountable

number of possible outcomes, represented by the intervals
on a number line.
x
0 2 4 6 8 10
 Random Variables
Example:
Decide if the random variable x is discrete or continuous.
a.) The distance your car travels on a tank of gas
The distance your car travels is a continuous
random variable because it is a measurement that
cannot be counted. (All measurements are
continuous random variables.)

b.) The number of students in a statistics class

The number of students is a discrete random
variable because it can be counted.
 Discrete Probability Distributions

A discrete probability distribution lists each possible value

together with its probability.
A probability distribution must satisfy the following
conditions.

In Words In Symbols
1. The probability of each value of 0 ≤ P (x) ≤ 1
the discrete random variable is
between 0 and 1.

2. The sum of all the probabilities ΣP (x) = 1

is 1.
Constructing a Discrete Prob. Distribution

Guidelines
Let x be a discrete random variable with possible
outcomes x1, x2, … , xn.

1. Make a frequency distribution for the possible

outcomes.
2. Find the sum of the frequencies.
3. Find the probability of each possible outcome by
dividing its frequency by the sum of the frequencies.
4. Check that each probability is between 0 and 1 and
that the sum is 1.
 Checking for nonnegativity and total probability equals one

Example
 Example 1

The spinner below is divided into two sections. The

probability of landing on the 1 is 0.25. The probability of
landing on the 2 is 0.75. Let x be the number the spinner
lands on. Construct a probability distribution for the
random variable x.

1 x P ( x)
1 0.25 Each probability is
2 between 0 and 1.
2 0.75

The sum of the probabilities is 1.

 Example 2

The spinner below is spun two times. The probability of

landing on the 1 is 0.25. The probability of landing on the 2
is 0.75. Let x be the sum of the two spins. Construct a
probability distribution for the random variable x.

The possible sums are 2, 3, and 4.

1 P (sum of 2) = 0.25 × 0.25 = 0.0625

Spin a 1 on “and” Spin a 1 on the

2
the first spin. second spin.

Continued.
 Example 2 continued

P (sum of 3) = 0.25 × 0.75 = 0.1875

1
Spin a 1 on “and” Spin a 2 on the
2 the first spin. second spin.
“or”

Sum of
P (sum of 3) = 0.75 × 0.25 = 0.1875
P ( x)
spins, x
2 0.0625 Spin a 2 on “and” Spin a 1 on the
3 0.375 the first spin. second spin.
4
0.1875 + 0.1875 Continued.
 Example 2 continued

1 P (sum of 4) = 0.75 × 0.75 = 0.5625

2 Spin a 2 on “and” Spin a 2 on the
the first spin. second spin.

Sum of
P ( x)
spins, x
2 0.0625 Each probability is between
3 0.375 0 and 1, and the sum of the
4 0.5625 probabilities is 1.
 Example 3

Graph the following probability distribution using a histogram.

Sum of
P (x)
P ( x) Sum of Two Spins
spins, x 0.6
2 0.0625 0.5
3 0.375
Probability
0.4
4 0.5625
0.3

0.2

0.1
0 x
2 3 4
Sum
 Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation
• The mean of a discrete random variable is given by
μ = ΣxP (x).
Each value of x is multiplied by its corresponding probability
and the products are added.
• The variance of a discrete random variable is given by

σ2 = Σ(x – μ) 2 P (x).
• The standard deviation of a discrete random variable is
given by
σ= σ2 .
 Example 4

Find the mean , Variance and Standard Deviation of the probability

distribution for the sum of the two spins.
Solution
x P (x) x * P (x) x–μ (x – μ)2 P (x) * (x – μ)2
2 0.0625 2(0.0625) = 0.125 –1.5 2.25 ≈ 0.141
3 0.375 3(0.375) = 1.125 –0.5 0.25 ≈ 0.094
4 0.5625 4(0.5625) = 2.25 0.5 0.25 ≈ 0.141

The mean = Σx P (x) = 0.125+1.125+2.25 =3.5

The variance = ΣP(x)(x – µ)2 ≈ 0.141+0.094+0.141 ≈ 0.376
The standard deviation = σ = √ 0.376 = 0.613
 Example 5
At a raffle, 500 tickets are sold for $1 each for two prizes of
$100 and $50. What is the expected value (mean) of your gain?
Your gain for the $100 prize is $100 – $1 = $99.
Your gain for the $50 prize is $50 – $1 = $49.
Write a probability distribution for the possible gains (or
outcomes). E (x) = ΣxP(x).
1 1 498
Outcome x P (x) = $99 ⋅ + $49 ⋅ + (−$1) ⋅
500 500 500
99 1/500 = −$0.70
49 1/500 Because the expected value is
-1 498/500 negative, you can expect to lose
$0.70 for each ticket you buy.
4.2

Binomial Distributions
 Binomial Experiments

A binomial experiment is a probability experiment that

satisfies the following conditions.
1. The experiment is repeated for a fixed number of
trials, where each trial is independent of other trials.
2. There are only two possible outcomes of interest for
each trial. The outcomes can be classified as a success
(S) or as a failure (F).
3. The probability of a success P (S) is the same for each
trial.
4. The random variable x counts the number of
successful trials.
 Notation for Binomial Experiments

Symbol Description
n The number of times a trial is repeated.

p = P (S) The probability of success in a single trial.

q = P (F) The probability of failure in a single trial.

( q = 1 – p)

x The random variable represents a count

of the number of successes in n trials:
x = 0, 1, 2, 3, … , n.
 Example 6
Decide whether the experiment is a binomial experiment.
If it is, specify the values of n, p, and q, and list the possible
values of the random variable x. If it is not a binomial
experiment, explain why.
• You randomly select a card from a deck of cards, and
note if the card is an Ace. You then put the card
back and repeat this process 8 times.

This is a binomial experiment. Each of the 8 selections

represent an independent trial because the card is
replaced before the next one is drawn. There are only
two possible outcomes: either the card is an Ace or not.
n =8 = p 4 =
1
q =1 − 1 =12 x = 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
52 13 13 13
 Example 7
Decide whether the experiment is a binomial experiment.
If it is, specify the values of n, p, and q, and list the possible
values of the random variable x. If it is not a binomial
experiment, explain why.

• You roll a die 10 times and note the number the die
lands on.

This is not a binomial experiment. While each trial

(roll) is independent, there are more than two possible
outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
 Binomial Probability Formula

In a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly x

successes in n trials is

=P (x ) C
= p x n −x
q n! p xq n − x .
n x
(n − x )! x !

Or
 Example
It has been claimed that in 60% of all solar-heat installations the utility
bill is reduced by at least one-third. Accordingly, what are the
probabilities that the utility bill will be reduced by at least one-third in.
(a) four of five installations;
(b) at least four of five installations?

(a) Substituting x = 4, n = 5, and p = 0.60 into the formula for

the binomial distribution, we get
b (4; 5, 0.60) = 5𝐶𝐶4 (0.6)4 (1 − 0.6)5−4 = 0.259

(b) Substituting x = 5, n = 5, and p = 0.60 into the formula for the

binomial distribution, we get
b (5; 5, 0.60) = 5𝐶𝐶5 (0.6)5 (1 − 0.6)5−5 = 0.078

and the answer is b (4; 5, 0.60) + b (5; 5, 0.60) = 0.259 + 0.078 = 0.337.
 Example 9
A bag contains 10 chips. 3 of the chips are red, 5 of the chips are
white, and 2 of the chips are blue. Four chips are selected, with
replacement. Create a probability distribution for the number of red
chips selected.

3
p = the probability of selecting a red chip
= = 0.3
10
q = 1 – p = 0.7
n=4 x P ( x)
x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 0 0.240 The binomial
1 0.412 probability
2 0.265 formula is used
3 0.076 to find each
4 0.008 probability.
 Example 10
The following probability distribution represents the probability of
selecting 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 red chips when 4 chips are selected.

x P ( x)
0 0.24 a.) Find the probability of selecting no
1 0.412 more than 3 red chips.
2 0.265
3 0.076 b.) Find the probability of selecting at
4 0.008
least 1 red chip.
a.) P (no more than 3) = P (x ≤ 3) = P (0) + P (1) + P (2) + P (3)
= 0.24 + 0.412 + 0.265 + 0.076 = 0.993
b.) P (at least 1) = P (x ≥ 1) = 1 – P (0) = 1 – 0.24 = 0.76
Complement
 ee

Example
Example
4.3

Hypergeometric Distributions
 The Hypergeometric Distribution
Suppose that we are interested in the number of defectives in a
sample of n units drawn without replacement from a lot
containing N units, of which a are defective.

where x cannot exceed a and n − x cannot exceed N − a.

 Example 13
An Internet-based company that sells discount accessories for
cell phones often ships an excessive number of defective
products. The company needs better control of quality.
Suppose it has 20 identical car chargers on hand but that 5 are
defective.
If the company decides to randomly select 10 of these items,
what is the probability that 2 of the 10 will be defective?
Solution Substituting x = 2, n = 10, a = 5, and N = 20
 Simplification

20

5 15 20

2 8 10
 A numerical comparison of the hypergeometric and
binomial distributions
Example
A company has 100 identical car chargers on hand but that 25
are defective. If the company decides to randomly select 10 of
these items, by using
(a) the formula for the hypergeometric distribution;
(b) the formula for the binomial distribution as an
approximation.
what is the probability that 2 of the 10 will be defective?
Solution
 Note

Observe that the difference between the two values is only

0.010. In general, it can be shown that h(x; n, a, N) approaches
b(x; n, p) with p = a/N when N →∞, and a good rule of
thumb is to use the binomial distribution as an approximation
to the hypergeometric distribution if n ≤N/10
.
Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation
4.4

Poisson Distributions
 Poisson Distribution
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution of
a random variable x that satisfies the following conditions.
1. The experiment consists of counting the number of times
an event, x, occurs in a given interval. The interval can be
an interval of time, area, or volume.
2. The probability of the event occurring is the same for each
interval.
3. The number of occurrences in one interval is independent
of the number of occurrences in other intervals.

The probability of exactly x occurrences in an interval is the

Poisson distribution, with mean λ (lambda)= μ = np , has probabilities given by
.
 Example 15
The mean number of power outages in the city of Brunswick is 4 per
year. Find the probability that in a given year,
a.) there are exactly 3 outages,
b.) there are more than 3 outages.

a= , x 3
.) µ 4= b.) P (more than 3)
f (3) = 1 − P (x ≤ 3)
=
43(2.71828)-4 1 − [P (3) + P (2) + P (1) + P (0)]
=
P (3) =
3!
= 1- [f(3) + f(2) + f(1) + f(0)]
≈ 0.195
1 − (0.195 + 0.147 + 0.073 + 0.018)
=
≈ 0.567
 Poisson Processes
In this section we shall be concerned with processes taking place over continuous intervals of
time or space, such as the occurrence of imperfections on a continuously produced bolt of
cloth, the recording of radiation by means of a Geiger counter, the arrival of telephone calls at
a virtual switchboard, or the passing by cars over an electronic counting device. We will now
show that the mathematical model which we can use to describe many situations like these is
that of the Poisson distribution. To find the probability of x successes during a time interval of
length T, we divide the interval into n equal parts of length Δt, so that T = n ・ Δt , and we
assume that
1) The probability of a success during a very small interval of time Δt is given by

p = α・Δt and λ = α・T

2) The probability of more than one success during such a small time interval Δt is
negligible.
3) The probability of a success during such a time interval does not depend on what
happened prior to that time.
Example
 Example 16
A fast food chain puts a winning game piece on every fifth package
of French fries. Find the probability that you will win a prize,
a.) with your third purchase of French fries,
b.) with your third or fourth purchase of French fries.

p = 0.20 q = 0.80
a.) x = 3 b.) x = 3, 4
P (3) = (0.2)(0.8)3 – 1 P (3 or 4) = P (3) + P (4)
= (0.2)(0.8)2 ≈ 0.128 + 0.102
= (0.2)(0.64) ≈ 0.230
= 0.128