Introduction to probability theory

Lecturer: Dr. Sunanda Saha and

Dr. Praneeta Verma
February, 2018

1 Module-5
1. Using Mullar method find the root of given equations:-

• x4 − x − 10 = 0
• x − e−x = 0
• cosx − xex = 0

2. State and prove Trepezoidal rule for single and multi application

2 Module-3
Questions Based on Random Variable Question

1. Find the value of k such that the following distribution represents a finite probability distri-
bution. Hence find its mean and standard deviation. Also find P {X ≤ 1}, P {X > 1} and
P {−1 < X ≤ 2}
xi -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
p(xi ) k 2k 3k 4k 3k 2k k

2. The probability distribution of a finite random variable X is given by the following table.
Find the value of k, mean and variance.
X = xi -2 -1 0 1 2 3
p(xi ) 0.1 k 0.2 2k 0.3k k

3. The probability distribution of a finite random variable X is given by the following table.
Find the value of a and find P {X < 3}, P {X ≥ 3} and P {0 < X < 5}
X = xi 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
p(xi ) a 3a 5a 7a 9a 11a 13a 15a 17a

4. The probability distribution of a finite random variable X is given by the following table.
Find the value of k, mean and variance.

1
 X = xi 0 1 2 3 4 5
p(xi ) k 5k 10k 10k 5k k

Questions based on Bayes theorem

1. A bin contains 3 different types of disposable flashlights. The probability that a type 1
flashlight will give over 100 hours of use is 0.7, with the corresponding probabilities for type 2
and type 3 flashlights being .4 and .3, respectively. Suppose that 20 percent of the flashlights
in the bin are type 1, 30 percent are type 2 and 50 percent are type 3.
i) What is the probability that a randomly chosen flashlight will give more that 100 hours of
use?
ii) Given that a flashlight lasted over 100 hours, what is the conditional probability that it
was a type j flashlight, j=1,2,3?

2. Three major parties A, B, C are contending for power in the elections of a state and the
chance of their winning the election is in the ratio 1: 3: 5. The parties A, B, C respectively
have probabilities of banning the online lottery 2/3, 1/3, 3/5. What is the probability that
there will be a ban on the online lottery in the state? What is the probability that the ban
is from the party C?

3. A bag contains three coins, one of which is two headed and the other two are normal and
fair. A coin is chosen at random from the bag and tossed four times in succession. i) Find
the probability that head turns up each time. ii) Given that head turns up each time in
succession, what is the probability that it was the two headed coin?

4. In a bolt factory there are four machines A, B, C, D manufacturing respectively 20%, 15%,
25%, 40% of the total production. Out of these 5%, 4%, 3%, 2% are defective. If a bolt drawn
at random was found defective what is the probability that it was manufactured by A or D?

5. A company is manufacturing ball pens in two writing colors blue and red make packets of 10
pens with 5 pens of each color. In a particular shop it was found that after sales, packet one
contained 3 blue and 2 red pens, packet two contained 3 blue and 5 red pens. On the demand
of a customer for a pen, the packet was drawn at random and a pen was taken out. It was
found blue. Find the probability that packet one was selected.

6. In a class 70% are boys and 30% are girls. 5% of boys, 3% of the girls are irregular to the
classes. What is the probability of a student selected at random is irregular to the classes
and what is the probability that the irregular student is a girl?

7. In a certain day care 30% of the children have grey eyes , 50% have blue and 20% eyes are
in other colours. One day they play a game together.In first run, 65% of the grey eye ones,
82% of the blue eyes and 50% of the children with other eye were selected. Now if a child is
selected randomly from the class and we know that he /she was not in the first game, what
is the probability that the child has blue eyes?

3 Module-4
1. If X is a Poisson random variable with parameter λ, then prove that E[X] = V ar[X] = λ.

2
2. The length of telephone conversation in a booth has been an exponential distribution and
found an average to be 5 minutes. Find the probability that a random call made from this
booth (i) ends less than 5 minutes (ii) between 5 and 10 minutes.

3. If X is exponential variate with mean 5 find (i) P {0 < X < 1} (ii) P {X < 10} (iii) P {X ≤
0 or X ≥ 1} Ans: 0.1813, 0.8647, 0.8187

4. In a certain town the duration of a shower is exponentially distributed with mean 5 min-
utes.What is the probability that a shower will last for: (i) 10 minutes or more (ii) less than
10 minutes (iii) between 10 and 12 minutes.

5. If x is an exponential variate with mean 3 find (i) P (x > 1)(ii)P (x < 3)