Conditional Probability

The probability that A occurs, given that event B

has occurred is called the conditional probability of A
given B and is defined as 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵 .

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵 = if 𝑃(𝐵 > 0
𝑃(𝐵

STS 301, Lecture 2 .

 Example
2

The probability that a regular scheduled flight

depart on time is 0.83 and the probability that it arrives on
time is 0.82 and the probability that it departs and arrives
on time is 0.78.
1) Find the probability that a plane depart on time
given that it has arrived on time?
2) Find the probability that a plane arrive on time given
that it has departed on time?
Solution
𝑃 𝐴 = 0.82 , 𝑃 𝐷 = 0.83 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 𝐴𝐷 = 0.78

STS 301, Lecture 2 .

 Example
3
1 1
Let A and B be events with 𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐵 = , and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐶
2 3
= 1 4 . Find 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵 , 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴 and 𝑃(𝐵𝐶 |𝐴𝐶
Solution
P ( A B )  P ( A) - P( A B C )  1/ 2 -1/ 4  1/ 4
P  AC BC   P  A B   1  P  A B 
C
1  P( A | B)
P ( A B ) 1/ 4  1   P  A   P  B   P  A B  
P( A | B)    3/ 4
P( B) 1/ 3 1 1 1 5
 1     
2  P( B | A)  2 3 4  12
P( A B) 1/ 4 2 3  P ( B C
| AC
)
P( B | A)    P ( AC
B C
) 5 /12
P( A) 1/ 2 4 P( B | A ) 
C C
 5/6
C
P( A ) 1/ 2
STS 301, Lecture 2 .
 Example
4

In a certain college, 25% of the students failed Mathematics, 15%

of the students failed chemistry and 10% of the students failed both
mathematics and chemistry. A student is selected at random, find
• If he failed chemistry, what is the probability that he failed
Mathematics?
• If the failed mathematics, what is the probability he failed
chemistry?
• If he failed chemistry, what is the probability he succeeded
mathematics
Solution
P ( M )  0.25, P(C )  0.15, P( M C )  0.1

STS 301, Lecture 2 .

• If he failed chemistry, what is the probability that he failed
Mathematics
PM C 0.1
PM | C    0.67
P C  0.15

• If the failed mathematics, what is the probability he failed

chemistry?
P  C  M  0.1
P C | M     0.4
PM  0.25
• If he failed chemistry, what is the probability he succeeded
mathematics

PM | C 
C
P  C  M C
 
P C   P C  M 
P C  P C 
0.15  0.1 1
 
0.15 3
STS 301, Lecture 2 5 .
 Independence
If two events A and B are independent if the
occurrence or nonoccurrence of either of them has no
relation to the occurrence or nonoccurrence of the other,
that is the probability that both A and B will occur is equal
to the product of their individual probabilities which
implies:
𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨 . 𝑷(𝑩
 Independence
7

We can redefine independence in terms of conditional probabilities:

Two events A and B are independent if and only

if
P ( A | B)  P( A) if P( B)  0
and
P ( B | A)  P( B) if P( A)  0

STS 301, Lecture 2 .

Example
Given 𝑃(𝐴 = 0.5 and 𝑃(𝐴 𝑈 𝐵 = 0.6, find 𝑃(𝐵 | 𝐴 If
1) A and B are independent
Solution
1) A and B are independent
P  A  B P  A P  B 
P  B | A    P  B
P  A P  A

P ( AUB )  P( A)  P( B) - P( A  B)
 P ( A)  P( B) - P( A) P( B)

P ( AUB )  P( A)  P( B)(1- P( A))

0.6 = 0.5  0.5 P( B)
P ( B )  0.2  P ( B | A)  P( B)  0.2
STS 301, Lecture 2 8 .
 The Multiplicative Rule for
Intersections
• For any two events, A and B, the
probability that both A and B occur is
P(A B) = P(A)P(B|A) or P(B)P(A|B)

• If the events A and B are independent, then

the probability that both A and B occur is
P(A B) = P(A) P(B)

STS 301, Lecture 2 9 .

 Example
10

A survey revealed 60 percent of members made airline

reservations last year. Two members are selected at random. What is
the probability both made airline reservations last year?
Solution

P(R1 and R2) =P(R1)P(R2) = (.60)(.60) =.36

STS 301, Lecture 2 .

 Example
11

A football player has 12 shirts in his closet. Suppose 9 of these

shirts are white and the others blue. He gets dressed in the dark, so
he just grabs a shirt and puts it on. He plays football two days in a
row and does not do laundry. What is the likelihood both shirts
selected are white?
Solution

P(W1 and W2) = P(W1)P(W2|W1) = 9/12 . 8/11 = 0.55

So the likelihood of selecting two shirts and finding them both to

be white is .55.

STS 301, Lecture 2 .

 Example
12

Suppose that a lamp box containing 20 lamps, of which 5

are defective. If 2 lamps are selected at random and removed from
the box in succession without replacing the first, what is the
probability that both lamps are defective?
Solution
4/19 D2/D1
5/20 D1
15/19 G2/D1
15/20 G1 5/19 D2/G1
14/19 G2/G1
P ( D1 D2 )  P ( D1 ) P ( D2 | D1 )  5 / 20  4 / 19  1/ 19
STS 301, Lecture 2 .
 Example
13

One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a second
bag contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls. One ball is drawn from
the first bag and placed unseen in the second bag. What is the
probability that a ball now drawn from the second bag is black?
Solution
6/9 B2/B1 drawing a black ball from bag 2
3/7 B1 P (B 2 )  P ( B 2 B 1 )  P (B 2 W 1 )
3/9 W2/B1  P ( B ) P( B | B )  P (W ) P ( B | W )
1 2 1 1 2 1
4/7 W1 5/9 B2/W1
 3/ 7  6/ 9  4/ 7  5/ 9  0.6
4/9 W2/W1

STS 301, Lecture 2 .

 Assignment
14

1. A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for emergencies.
The probability that the fire engine is available when needed is 0.98, and the
probability that the ambulance is available when called is 0.92. In the event of an
injury resulting from a burning building, find the probability that both the
ambulance and the fire engine will be available, assuming they operate
independently.

2. A machine produces parts that are either good (90%), slightly defective (2%),
or obviously defective (8%). Produced parts get passed through an automatic
inspection machine, which is able to detect any part that is obviously defective
and discard it. What is the quality of the parts that make it through the inspection
machine and get shipped?

STS 301, Lecture 2 .

3. A box contains 20 balls. Assume that 5 balls are white. Four balls are selected
at random, without replacement:
a) What is the probability that all four of the selected balls are white?
b) What is the probability that at least one of the selected balls is not white?

4. The events A and B are mutually exclusive. Suppose P(A) = 0.30 and P(B) =
0.20. What is the probability of either A or B occurring? What is the probability
that neither A nor B will happen? (Last answer: 0.5)

5. The events X and Y are mutually exclusive. Suppose P(X) = 0.05 and P(Y) =
0.02. What is the probability of either X or Y occurring? What is the probability
that neither X nor Y will
happen?

6. Suppose P(A) = 0.4 and P(B|A) = 0.3. What is the joint probability of A and B?
(Last answer: 0.12)
7. Suppose P(A) = 0.75 and P(B|A) = 0.4. What is the joint probability of x and
y?

STS 301, Lecture 2 15 .

 7. Determine whether these events are mutually exclusive:
a. Roll a die: Get an even number, and get a number less than 3. No
b. Roll a die: Get a prime number (2, 3, 5), and get an odd number. No
c. Roll a die: Get a number greater than 3, and get a number less than 3. Yes
d. Select a student in your class: The student has blond hair, and the student
has blue eyes. No
e. Select a student in your college: The student is a sophomore, and the
student is a business major. No
f. Select any course: It is a calculus course, and it is an English course. Yes
g. Select a registered voter: The voter is a Republican, and the voter is a
Democrat. Yes

8. An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A ball is
selected and its color noted. Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected
and its color noted. Find the probability of each of these:
a. Selecting 2 blue balls
b. Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball
c. Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball

STS 301, Lecture 2 16 .

1. State which events are independent and which are dependent:
a. Tossing a coin and drawing a card from a deck. Independent
b. Drawing a ball from an urn, not replacing it, and then drawing a second ball.
Dependent
c. Getting a raise in salary and purchasing a new car. Dependent
d. Driving on ice and having an accident. Dependent
e. Having a large shoe size and having a high IQ. Independent
f. A father being left-handed and a daughter being left-handed. Dependent
g. Smoking excessively and having lung cancer. Dependent
h. Eating an excessive amount of ice cream and smoking an excessive amount
of cigarettes. Independent

STS 301, Lecture 2 17 .