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Lecture 2 Formula For Classical Probability-1

This document provides an overview of classical probability formulas and rules. It defines probability as the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes. It lists rules such as probabilities ranging from 0 to 1, the probability of an impossible event being 0, and the probabilities of all outcomes in a sample space summing to 1. It also defines complementary events and provides addition rules for probabilities of multiple events. Examples are given to demonstrate calculating probabilities based on the information provided about events.

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158 views17 pages

Lecture 2 Formula For Classical Probability-1

This document provides an overview of classical probability formulas and rules. It defines probability as the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes. It lists rules such as probabilities ranging from 0 to 1, the probability of an impossible event being 0, and the probabilities of all outcomes in a sample space summing to 1. It also defines complementary events and provides addition rules for probabilities of multiple events. Examples are given to demonstrate calculating probabilities based on the information provided about events.

Uploaded by

mo.ebrahim2003265
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Formula for Classical Probability

if the number of outcomes of a random experiment is N


and the number of outcomes of an event A is M then
𝑴 (𝒏𝒐. 𝒐𝒇 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔 𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔)
𝑷 𝑨 =
𝑵 (𝒏𝒐. 𝒐𝒇 𝑺 𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔)
Rules
• The probability of any event A is a number (either a
fraction or decimal) between and including 0 and 1. This
is denoted  0  P  A  1
• If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no
members in the sample space), its probability is 0.
 P    0
STS 301, Lecture 1 .
Probability Rules
2

• If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.


• The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the
sample space is 1.
 PS  1

• COMPLEMENT RULE:
• The complement of an event A is the set of outcomes in the
sample space that are not included in the outcomes of event A.
The complement of A is denoted by
  
P AC  P  S   P  A   1  P  A 

STS 301, Lecture 1 .


The Addition Rules for Probability
3
 P  A B   P  A  P  B   P  A B 

 P  A B C   P  A  P  B   P C   P  A B 
 P A C  PB C  P A B C

 P  A  B   P  A  P  A B   P A B c 
 P  B  A  P  B   P  A B  P  A c
B

 
P B c c

A  P  A B  1 P  A B
c

PB A   PA B  1 P  A B
c
 c c

STS 301, Lecture 1 .


Example 8
4

If P(Ac) = 3/8 , P(B) = 3/5 and P(AB) = 2/5 find each of


the following probabilities
1. The occurrence of A
P  A  1  P  A   1  
c 3 5
8 8
2. The non occurrence of B
P B  
c 3 2
 1 P  B  1 
5 5
3. The occurrence of A or B
33
PB A  P  A  P  B   P  A B  
40
STS 301, Lecture 1 .
4. The non occurrence of A or B together
33 7
P  A B  1 P  A B  1
c

40 40
5. The occurrence of only A
5 2 9
P  A  B   P  A  P  A B    
8 5 40
6. The non occurrence of A and B together
2 3
P  A B  1 P  A B  1 
c

5 5

STS 301, Lecture 1 5 .


Example 9
6
if A and B are two event of sample space of an experiment s.t
1 5 1
𝑃 𝐴∩ 𝐵𝑐 = , 𝑃 𝐵−𝐴 = , 𝑃 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 =
12 12 4
Find 𝑃 𝐴 , 𝑃 𝐵 , 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵

Solution
 
P A Bc  P  A  P  A
12
1
B  ,

5
P  B  A  P  B   P  A B   ,
12

P A c
B c
  PA B
c
 1 P  A B 
1
4
STS 301, Lecture 1 .
1 3
P  A B  1 
4 4
P  A B   P  A  P  B   P  A B 
3 5 1
  P  A   P  A 
4 12 3
P  A B   P  A  P  B   P  A B 

5 2 1
  P  A B  P  A B 
12 3 4
5
P  B  A  P  B   P  A B   ,
12
3 1 2
  P  B   P B 
4 12 3
STS 301, Lecture 1 7 .
Example

 Consider an experiment of rolling a six-sided die.


What is the probability of the event “an even number
of spots appear face up”?
Solution
There are three “favorable” outcomes (a two, a four,
and a six) in the collection of six equally likely possible
outcomes. Therefore:
Probability of an even number =
Number of favorable outcomes 3
= = 0.5
Total number of possible outcomes 6

STS 301, Lecture 1 8 .


Assignment
9

1. Let A and B are two event of a sample space S and let P(A) = 0.5,
P(B) = 0.7 and P(AUB) = 0.9
i) Find the probability of each of the following events
a) A and B c) A but not B
b) B but not A d) neither A nor B

2. If P(A) = 0.6, and P(B) = 0.1, and both with probability of 0.02.
What is the probability that
a) A or B.
b) B but not A.

STS 301, Lecture 1 .


Assignment
10

3. A survey of 34 students at the Wall College of Business showed the following


majors:
Accounting 10
Finance 5
Economics 3
Management 6
Marketing 10
Suppose you select a student and observe his or her major.
a. What is the probability he or she is a management major?
b. Which concept of probability did you use to make this estimate?

4. What is a probability experiment?

5. Define sample space.

STS 301, Lecture 1 .


Assignment
11

6. What is the difference between an outcome and an event? (An outcome is the
result of a single trial of a random experiment, but an event can consist of more
than one outcome.)

7. What is the range of the values of the probability of an event? The range of
values is 0 to 1 inclusive.

8. When an event is certain to occur, what is its probability? 1

9. If an event cannot happen, what value is assigned to its probability? 0

10. What is the sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in a sample space? 1

11. If the probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.20, what is the probability that it
won’t rain tomorrow? Would you recommend taking an umbrella? 0.80

STS 301, Lecture 1 .


Assignment
12

10. A probability experiment is conducted. Which of these cannot be considered a


probability outcome?
1.65, 1, 0.63, 0.44, 125%, 0, 24%

11. If a die is rolled one time, find these probabilities.


a. Getting a 2.
b. Getting a number greater than 6.
c. Getting an odd number.
d. Getting a 4 or an odd number
e. Getting a number less than 7
f. Getting a number greater than or equal to 3
g. Getting a number greater than 2 and an even number

STS 301, Lecture 1 .


Assignment
13
12. If two dice are rolled one time, find the probability of getting these results.
a. A sum of 9
b. A sum of 7 or 11
c. Doubles
d. A sum less than 9
e. A sum greater than or equal to 10

13. A couple has three children. Find each probability.


a. All boys
b. All girls or all boys
c. Exactly two boys or two girls
d. At least one child of each gender

STS 301, Lecture 1 .

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