Statistical Analysis

4.1. Sampling From a Population

Population
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Random Sample

DISTRIBUTION OF SAMPLE STATISTICS

MSc. Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú

December 7, 2023
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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Statistical Analysis
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Population
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Random Sample

Statistical Analysis

In economics and business, there is a wide range of problems that

have the same procedure of solution. For example,

Use a sample of sales receivable for a company to estimate the

mean dollar value of all sales receivables held by the company.

Use a sample of cereal box weights to estimate the mean weight

of all cereal boxes produced in a particular week.

Use a sample of daily stock market prices to estimate the mean

value and the risk for a stock
This procedure is called the statistical analysis.

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Statistical Analysis
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Population
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Random Sample

Statistical Analysis

It is often very difficult to obtain and measure every item in a

population. Therefore, we carefully obtain a random sample of the
population instead of spending the resources to measure every item:

Population / Population Parameters (µ, σ 2 )

O


Sample / Sample Statistics (x, s2 )

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Statistical Analysis
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Population
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Random Sample

Population

Definition
Population for various statistical studies is modeled as a random
variable, denoted by X. Here

X = The value obtained when we measure an object in the population.

Then
The number of objects in the population is called the population
size, denoted by N (is usually very large).
E(X) = µ: is called the population mean.
Var(X) = σ 2 : is called the population variance.
The population parameters, µ and σ 2 , are fixed but unknown numbers.
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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Statistical Analysis
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Population
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Random Sample

Random Sample

Definition
A simple random sample is chosen by a process that randomly selects
a sample of n objects from a population in such a way that
Each member of the population has the same probability of being
selected,
The selection of one member is independent of the selection of
any other member.
Here, n is called the sample size.

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Statistical Analysis
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Population
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Random Sample

Random Sample
Select randomly n objects from the population. Let
X1 : the value obtained when we measure the 1st object.
X2 : the value obtained when we measure the 2nd object.
…
Xn : the value obtained when we measure the n­th object.
Remark
The system of random variables X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn is called the random
sample. Especially X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn have the same probability
distribution as the population X. In particular,

E(Xi ) = E(X) = µ

and
Var(Xi ) = Var(X) = σ 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Sample Mean

Definition
Let the random variable X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn denote a random sample from
a population. The sample mean value of these random variables is
defined as follows:

1∑
n
X1 + X2 + . . . + Xn
X= Xi =
n n
i=1

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Standard Normal Distribution for the Sample Means

Let X follow the normal distribution with the mean µ and variance σ 2 ,
that is
X ∼ N(µ, σ 2 ).
Let the random variable X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn denote a random sample from
a population. Then

Xi ∼ N(µ, σ 2 ), i = 1, 2, . . . , n.

Therefore
1 1
X = X1 + . . . + Xn
n n
1 1 1 1
∼ N( µ + . . . + µ, 2 σ 2 + . . . + 2 σ 2 )
n 2 n n n
σ
∼ N(µ, )
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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Standard Normal Distribution for the Sample Means

Theorem
Let the random variable X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn denote a random sample from
a population. Suppose that X ∼ N(µ, σ 2 ). If the parent population
distribution is normal and, thus, the sampling distribution of the
sample means is normal, then the random variable

X−µ
Z= σ ∼ N(0, 1).
√
n

σ
√ is called the standard error of X, denoted by σX
n

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Central Limit Theorem

The central limit theorem shows that the sum of n random variables
from any probability distribution will be approximately normally
distributed if n is large (given a large­enough sample size).
Theorem
Let X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn be a set of n independent random variables having
identical distributions with mean µ and variance σ 2 , and X as the
mean of these random variables. As n becomes large (n ≥ 25),

X−µ
Z= σ ∼ N(0, 1).
√
n

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Example

Example: The mean selling price of senior condominiums in Green

Valley over a year was $215,000. The population standard deviation
was $25,000. A random sample of 100 new unit sales was obtained.
a. What is the probability that the sample mean selling price was more
than $210,000?
b. What is the probability that the sample mean selling price was
between $213,000 and $217,000?

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Exercise

Ex: A random sample of 16 junior managers in the offices of

corporations in a large city center was taken to estimate average daily
commuting time for all such managers. Suppose that the population
times have a normal distribution with a mean of 87 minutes and a
standard deviation of 22 minutes.
a. What is the standard error of the sample mean commuting time?
b. What is the probability that the sample mean is fewer than 100
minutes?
c. What is the probability that the sample mean is outside the range 85
to 95 minutes?

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Ex: An industrial process produces batches of a chemical whose

impurity levels follow a normal distribution with standard deviation
1.6 grams per 100 grams of chemical. A random sample of 100
batches is selected in order to estimate the population mean impurity
level.
a. The probability is 0.05 that the sample mean impurity level exceeds
the population mean by how much?
b. The probability is 0.10 that the sample mean impurity level is
below the population mean by how much?
c. The probability is 0.15 that the sample mean impurity level differs
from the population mean by how much?

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Population Proportion

Definition
In a population, let A be a characteristic of interest. Then the
population proportion, denoted by P, is defined by
NA
P=
N
where
N: the population size;
NA : the number of items that have the characteristic A.

Note that: Since N is very large, the population proportion is fixed but
unknown.
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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Sample Proportion

In order to make inferences about the population proportion P, we use

statistical analysis. Here we select a random sample from the
population with the sample size n. Let

X : the number of items having the characteristic A in the random sample.

Then X follows the binomial distribution with n independent random

experiments and p = P.
Definition
The sample proportion, denoted by p̂, is define by
X
p̂ = .
n
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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Sample Proportion

Properties
X
Let p̂ = be a sample proportion. Then
n

µp̂ = E(p̂) = P

P(1 − P)
σp̂2 = Var(p̂) =
n

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Normal Distribution Approximation for Binomial

Distribution

When n becomes large, the binomial distribution has the bell­shaped

⇒ normal distribution.
Theorem
When n becomes large, the binomial distribution is approximately a
normal distribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions

Given
P(1 − P)
E(p̂) = P; Var(p̂) = .
n
When n becomes large, the sample proportion follows the normal
P(1 − P)
distribution with the mean P and variance .
n
Theorem
When n is large (nP(1 − P) > 5), we have

P(1 − P)
p̂ ∼ N(P, )
n
or
p̂ − P
√ ∼ N(0, 1)
P(1 − P)
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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Example

Example: A charity has found that 42% of all donors from last year
will donate again this year. A random sample of 300 donors from last
year was taken.
a. What is the standard error of the sample proportion who will donate
again this year?
b. What is the probability that more than half of these sample
members will donate again this year?
c. What is the probability that the sample proportion is between 0.40
and 0.45?

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Exercise

Ex 1: An administrator for a large group of hospitals believes that of

all patients 30 % will generate bills that become at least 2 months
overdue. A random sample of 200 patients is taken.
a. What is the standard error of the sample proportion that will
generate bills that become at least 2 months overdue?
b. What is the probability that the sample proportion is less than 0.25?
c. What is the probability that the sample proportion is more than
0.33?
d. What is the probability that the sample proportion is between 0.27
and 0.33?

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Exercise

Ex 2: A random sample of 100 voters is taken to estimate the

proportion of a state’s electorate in favor of increasing the gasoline
tax to provide additional revenue for highway repairs. What is the
largest value that the standard error of the sample proportion in favor
of this measure can take?

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Exercise
Ex 3: A company wants to estimate the proportion of people who are
likely to purchase electric shavers from those who watch the
nationally telecast baseball playoffs. A random sample obtained
information from 120 people who were identified as persons who
watch baseball telecasts. Suppose that the proportion of those likely
to purchase electric shavers in the population who watch the telecast
is 0.25.
a. The probability is 0.10 that the sample proportion watching the
telecast exceeds the population proportion by how much?
b. The probability is 0.05 that the sample proportion is lower than the
population proportion by how much?
c. The probability is 0.30 that the sample proportion differs from the
population proportion by how much? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Sample Variance

Definition
Let X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn be a random sample of observation from a
population. The quantity

1 ∑
n
(X1 − X)2 + . . . + (Xn − X)2
S2 = (Xi − X)2 =
n−1 n−1
i=1

is called the sample variance, and its square root, is called the sample
standard deviation.
For example, calculate the sample variance of the following random
sample
5, 2, 3, 3, 6, 5, 4.
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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Theorem
Given that the population X follows the normal distribution. It can be
shown that
(n − 1)S2
∼ χ2(n−1)
σ2
has a distribution known as the chi­square distribution with n − 1
degrees of freedom.

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Properties
(n − 1)S2
Let ∼ χ2(n−1) . Then
σ2

E(S2 ) = σ 2 .

2σ 4
Var(S2 ) = .
n−1

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Critical value

Definition
Let χ2v denote the Chi­Square Distribution with v degrees of freedom.
Given the probability α. The critical value, denoted by χ2v,α , is a value
such that
P(χ2v > χ2v,α ) = α.
Critical values can be found in Appendix Table 7.

For example, calculate the following probabilities

P(χ210 > 3, 94) =?
P(χ223 < 13, 5) =?
P(10, 9 < χ220 < 34, 2) =?
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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Example

In a large city it was found that summer electricity bills for

single­family homes followed a normal distribution with a standard
deviation of $100. A random sample of 25 bills was taken.
a. Find the probability that the sample standard deviation is less than
$75.
b. Find the probability that the sample standard deviation is between
$75 and $150.
c. Determine an upper limit for the sample variance such that the
probability of exceeding this limit is 0,95.

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Exercise

Ex 1: A mathematics test of 100 multiple­choice questions is to be

given to all freshmen entering a large university. Initially, in a pilot
study the test was given to a random sample of 20 freshmen. Suppose
that, for the population of all entering freshmen, the distribution of the
number of correct answers would be normal with a variance of 250.
a. What is the probability that the sample variance would be less than
100?
b. What is the probability that the sample variance would be more
than 500?

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Exercise

Ex 2: A precision instrument is checked by making 12 readings on

the same quantity. The population distribution of readings is normal.
a. The probability is 0.95 that the sample variance is more than what
percentage of the population variance?
b. The probability is 0.90 that the sample variance is more than what
percentage of the population variance?

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics

 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
4.1. Sampling From a Population
Sample Distributions of Sample Proportions
4.2. Sampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances

Exercise

Ex 3: Each member of a random sample of 15 business economists

was asked to predict the rate of inflation for the coming year. Assume
that the predictions for the whole population of business economists
follow a normal distribution with standard deviation 1.8%.
Find any pair of numbers such that the probability that the sample
standard deviation that lies between these numbers is 0.90.

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Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Distribution of Sample Statistics