as “orevent Awhen event B has already occurred i 1 PAB) § 42 PAD) = pp) 3188 4 — 1 EXERCSE 151 —_—_ Je rare 2 PB) = 5 and PA B= He: find PAB) HE Aun wwe venta nc at A= 8.FC)= OG AnH PAL B= 04nd 8) e, [cBsE 20010) @) uctAs07, i) +07 nd QUA) 06, hn fd P(A) and LAU AE Adiojnralled the ontcome ian even umber, what isthe probability that itisa prime nun? [CBSE 2001) a s tossed three times, Find PEM, ifthe events E and F are as follows ALE heads on third tons; P:hends on ist two taster Teast twoheads; Fat most two heads 1B, 5 : (Students are the future ofa ountry. A sincere student will always exci in ie and can serve 5 tails; Fat leat one tail ERT the country and society in a etter way.) + Value based questionya == 2 x rth draw ie, PUD/ABC) = Probability of drawing a white ball i fou ty of drawing white Ell ine Hence, by mliplitve aw he prob wee =P(ABCD) =P(A) ‘P(C/AB) P(D/ABC) 142d td tet, er <4"19" 617 960 Oh. ——— ANSWERS } 5whiteand 8 black balls. Asetafthre balls are day, . Is are not replaced before the second dr 1 [Bxampte'. Anrnce @, sock he at dra gives whit balls and second draw gives 3 Black 4 in first draw an 4 oleion- Lat Abe the event of rawing 3 whit alsin first draw and Be theeyeny J 18 “ drawing 3 blac balls inthe second dra 2; x sree amber ef tals in thebag = 5 + 8= 18, out of which 5 are white. bE oe 8, {85> INDEPENDENTEVENTS Probability of drawing 3 white balls in first draw = PLA) = Be, ~ 286-145 ‘After drawing S white ballsin the first draw, there are 10 balls eft in the bay fone event does not affect For example, from, the ball drawn is replaced in the bag and again a white bal the same in both the eases. Such events are sid to he Proof. Let A and B be two independent events, ‘Then the occurrence of event YE nantes 10 ack a ea Tala Gn ho coe the ter PA. thot relacemeat What he probably that bth te drawn alle ae ck? Whe contain 1 ih numbered om a1. A kat nde and hn nth Ker, Pan )=P Conversely, lot A and B be the events such that P(A B) =P(A).P(B) @ Now, P(A OB) =P(A/B).P(B) @ pack of cans, cards ae drawn one by one without eplacemen From (2) and, hat all are ace.the problem is solved by atleast ane of them 13 bet par rO= gry ts ‘bag contains Suchte, 7rd and 8 black balls. Four balls thagileaitone suite? onessth replacement. Wh ~ gotution. Let A B,C, Db the event that a white nd fourth raw respectively vac the bats are replaced afer cach draw the events A,B, Cand D are independey | outof which 5 are white 51 Probability of drawing white alin first raw ie PUA) = 39 = drawn in first, second, ‘The bag containa 5 +7 + 8 = 20 balls in Probability of oot ga white ballin first draw i, POR) = 1-13 Prt atravings whit blin second draw ie, PCB) 2-5 = 1 ‘Probability of not drawing a white ball in second draw i.e, P(B) = “4.3 Similar, Pw) =PD)~$ Probubility of not drawing a white ballin ist, second, third and fourth draw = PA BCD) = PiA).P(B).P(C). PCD) xh 356 $B 1h ges ogsinat A olin a certain probe {asa of Bling the ae prfem aro Find the probability tat the pol ratdrortie * Suton, 1 gent olds aunt Ashing apobem arto pays 2d ei Av, sinful problem re 5 pp 7.7 Tah . e Now raed = pated i > Value Based gation 11 pet 2 Here the events Aand B and hence A Probability thatthe problem will Probability thatthe problem willbe solved = 1 One should always show ‘courage and patience’ sect tirlosely to overcome these. umes“ aware woes oa nase pat FF sehether And B are independent? 3 Mss. IB nth even the mune spear re independent events IFA and B are two events such that PAA) = 1. Py 2 A. Taree coins are toed simultaneous era head an WPia)= 3 and Pim) £ find PAB) if And 8 AMA a8 are inden ANB) Pu or two events And B given that AB A, Barwindependent ao 4 14 B corresponding events, where PA) #03. show that K and B and third card isa bck ‘appearing i even’ then find whether Eand Fare independent” Yb thn ae inn i ba PA BD PA ndPAUB 2b short nnd and Pinot Arnot B) = ©, state @ Korma mulipleot Sand Fiathe eveat‘mumber or thre ti nd (FG), determine ween areindependent events. INCERT] nd PB) SE 2002) then nd at PA 06 find p wo that and XB) = independent. Prove that are alo independent. (CERT, ued pack of cards, ne after the eter with replacementee ees er P SAB AND A+ BBOTH ‘Acard is draen from a well shld po In the following examples, td the pack i resid, Another ® ent poses soa to get ach sven in the book and Bean ‘What is the probabil ve the problem, selected at random rom the book. ‘once in four throws ofa single die epectively. Selection of only one ofthe ) Sandeep selected and: (@ Acanssive 208 fe pot © Find ne canes cing 5 vest ape fora neview fro pots AaB fr which election ie nde oe ‘a 11/7. Find the prot he representing 72 Probability of Salim not selected = PGB) <1 Probability of selection of , Pris independent (E.G) and (FG) are dependent i 3 ° = PU, or By (4 0 idependent 2 independent (Band E, are mutually exe 7 PIA). P(B)L--Aand Bare independent 058 ~ ae lSyamort ea jeer: Solution. Let Ebe the event that A speaks truth and Phe the event that B speaks tuth Theevents E and F are independent. iy 69 io 15,7.) INDEPENDENT EXPERIMENTS, ow. PE) = 60% = Tuo random experiments are sid ob independe 64 associated with the first and the second experiment reap PCB) = Probability that Atels le = 1 = neous oeurrence ofAand Bis the praduct of Mayand PB the two experiments, TS Value Based question.eo balls are Find the proba |, There are three ura A B ana hie bal an serhof these urns Wh ipa blue bal ‘Twoballs are drawn at random roma bag ota 2. The probability of tudet A passing the examina Dy one without roplaceneat ina Assuming ie wo evets'A ys! and pases as indeed ‘Npaming tke Siamisaton, Qonly one of hem passing (Rabel speaks trath 5 times ut of 6 and Neba spe tra © ee tay tet uh aerin a te ae uy The ds agajnt'X speaking te tr are $109 andthe os in favour of speaking th Truthare 728, Pind the probability at tty ont acheter. vio Q Prat rnin 77% tess and Qin fh cs, aha pre cts tong inating the se fc? Dn you thik, when they agree means both are speak asked to start find their respective prot decision ofthe referee : 1 JC The pay oi tr by thine masaen are, 2 and rp robs that oe and ony oe ae wil it the tart when hey Breiman con and ene Tho probabilities of wo students A and B eoming tothe schol in time are $ and > probability of ely ane o them coming t the school in ime, Wn {o shoal in ime * ® te tossing a coin thrice, find the chance of throwing head and tai 3 8 +inCare § andiaDare 2 To qualifyhe must passin A and atleast in two ather subjects Whst The decision ofthe refere wa 10. A'bag contains 4 white balla and 2 black balls. Another contains 3 white and 5 black bal is drawn from each bag, ind the proba inning the game whichis against th ethics of fair pla. 9, 38, 30,25 have more than even chance aor 91is od, when a head has oo and PXB/ the probability that the number selcted is odd, asec ‘When tail appears then a number is selected from 1 through 5. AMT ce the probability that Ube number selectedis even, when tailhas occupy and. PYB/T) Le. the probability thatthe number selected is odd, when tail has occur. ‘Then, by law of total probability, we have G Pleven number is selected) = PCA) = PXH) PLA/HD + PCT) PLAT) [EBAY B05 A contains 6 red and 4 black bats and bag B contains 4 re balls, One all's drawn at random from bag A and placed in bag Band then one ba from bag Band placed in bag A. Thereupon, one ball ix drawn from bag A. Find the pr. ‘that the ball drawn is red. Seton et xl 8a th cof wemuving mod bal nek ‘bag A to bag B respectively. oe anja ®, RET i PB wt After transferring a ball from bag A to bag ar? Rs Ba balls transferred from bag B to bag A. wr ‘Let Rand B, be the events of transferring ‘ae ‘red ball and a black ball from bag B to bag A. SS respectively. 6 5 ‘ PR/R,) = + Py) = After the above two transfers are made, let R, be the event of drawing a red bll from bag A PIRYR,R,)= - PRYB,R) = 2 PRAMB) = © 6 RAB), PyB,B)= &2 black balls respectively From drawing Alto PEA) (Serart 15921 1) PUAIE,) # ont IE, wae Frere) - POE, OA)__PUE,)PIAIE,) PIA) Furuse) im, PUBJA) = 3.72; Weshould handover the purse othe coneerned authorities in the shea nas to preserve the al thant. cesar that th wets Uy By nv Bo equal ithe application of Bayes’ theorem ‘mal ecusie and sum oftheir proba Ticwaus EE, E, or called hypotheses. TepbabiiesP\E,) are known ax prion probabilities ie: ecanitional probabilities P\E /A) are known a posterior proba _— es) a rl contains 2 white and 3 red balls and ba 5 oe enor he bag and fad bred. dt sc ‘neball ts drauon at random from one of case f Heardrawn from bag 1. snag 8 fo ae ete ent niet and Ae the event that the ball drawn sO) ise, we have Jere required to find P(E,/A) ie. given the ty that itis drawn from bag I 15.10.» BAYES’ THEOREM Weshall now study an important i lunknown probabilities on the bass ofthe information p iment ‘of Bayes theorem. This theorem was enunciated by a British mathematician 1769 and ts hence named after him, Bayes’ theorem connects the conditional probability NE,/A) of , when A has occurred with the conditional probability PCA/E,) of A when E, has occurred for each ‘and the probabilities of Es themselves