Chapter One Macro
Chapter One Macro
Chapter one
Fundamental Concepts of Macro-
economics
AUGEST/2023
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Chapter one
Fundamental Concepts of Macroeconomics
Introduction
Chapter objectives
After completing this chapter, you will be able to:
• define GNP and GDP and able to measure national income by using the expenditure or
income or product approach;
• differentiate between nominal GDP and real GDP and decide which is better to measure
economic performance;
• explain the concept of business cycle;
• briefly discuss the types of unemployment;
• understand about inflation, causes of inflation and its impact on the economy and
• explain budgetary deficit and its ways of financing;
Goals of macroeconomics
Macroeconomics studies the working of an economy in aggregation or as a whole. And it aimed
at how;
• To achieve high economic growth
• To reduce unemployment
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• To reduce budget deficit and balance of payment (BoP) deficit
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In other words, the goals of macroeconomics can be given as ways towards full employment, price
stability, economic growth and fair distribution of income among citizens of a country.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): it is the total value of currently produced final goods and
services that are produced within a country‘s boundary during a given period of time, usually
one year. From this definition, we can infer that:
• It measures the current production only.
• It takes in to account final goods and services only (only the end products of various
production processes) or we do not include the intermediate products in our GDP
calculations. Intermediate goods are goods that are completely used up in the production
of other products in the same period that they themselves are produced.
• It measures the values of final goods and services produced within the
boundary/territory of a country irrespective of who owns that output.
• In measuring GDP, we take the market values of goods and services ( GDP PiQi )
where:
o Pi = series of prices of outputs produced in different sectors of an economy in
certain period
o Qi = the quantity of various final goods and services produced in an economy
Gross National Product (GNP): is the total value of final goods and services currently
produced by domestically owned factors of production in a given period of time, usually one
year, irrespective of their geographical locations.
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GDP and GNP are related as follows:
GNP=GDP + NFI
NFI denotes Net Factor Income received from abroad which is equal to factor income received
from abroad by a country‘s citizens less factor income paid for foreigners to abroad. Thus,
NFI could be negative, positive or zero depending on the amount of factor income received by
the two parties.
• If NFI >0, then GNP > GDP
• If NFI<0, then GNP < GDP
• If NFI =0, then GNP =GDP
Product Approach: In this approach, GDP is calculated by adding the market value of goods
and services currently produced by each sector of the economy. In this case, GDP includes only
the values of final goods and services in order to avoid double counting.
Double counting will arise when the output of some firms are used as intermediate inputs of
other firms. For example, we would not include the full price of an automobile in GDP and then
also include as part of GDP the value of the tires that were sold to the automobile producer. The
components of the car that are sold to the manufacturers are called intermediate goods, and their
value is not included in GDP.
We can illustrate the two scenarios using some hypothetical examples as follows.
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I. Taking only the value of final goods and services.
Example:
Sectors Value of Output (in million birr)
Agriculture and allied activities 9309
- Agriculture 7000
- Forestry 1000
- Fishing 1309
Industry 147413
- Mining & quarrying 9842
- Large & medium scale manufacturing 91852
- Electricity & water 13717
- Construction 32002
Service 357 872
- Banking insurance and real estate 121704
- Public administration & defense 36605
- Health 20000
- Education 32509
- Domestic & other services 147054
4. Net factor income from abroad 87348
II. Taking the sum of the valued added by all firms at each stage of production
Example:
Stages of production Values of output Cost of intermediate Value added
(in birr) inputs
Farmer 500 0 500
Oil factory 2000 500 1500
Retailers 2500 2000 500
Note: If all values in the economy were added, GDP would be 5000= (2500+2500). The
problem of double counting is 2500, because of considering intermediate input in the
calculation.
Expenditure Approach: here GDP is measured by adding all expenditures on final goods and
services produced in the country by all sectors of the economy. Thus, GDP can be estimated by
summing up personal consumption of households (C), gross private domestic investment (I),
government purchases of goods and services (G) and net exports (NE).
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Personal consumption expenditure includes expenditures by households on durable consumer
goods (automobiles, refrigerators, video recorders, etc), non-durable consumer goods (clothes,
shoes, pens, etc) and services.
Gross private domestic investment is defined as the sum of all spending of firms on plants,
equipment, and inventories, and the spending of households on new houses. Investment is
broken down into three categories: residential investment (the spending of households on the
construction of new houses), business fixed investment (the spending of firms on buildings and
equipment for business use), and inventory investment (the change in inventories of firms).
Note that gross private domestic investment differs from net private domestic investment in that
the former includes both replacement and added investment whereas the latter refers only to
added investment. Replacement means the production of all investment goods, which replace
machinery, equipment and buildings used up in the production process. In short, net private
domestic investment = gross private domestic investment minus depreciation.
Government purchases of goods and services include all government spending on finished
products and direct purchases of resources less government transfer payments because transfer
payments do not reflect current production although they are part of government expenditure.
Net exports refer to total value of exports less total value of imports. Note that net export is
different from the terms of trade in that the latter refers to the ratio of the value of exports to the
value of imports.
Example: GDP at current market price measured using expenditure approach for a hypothetical
economy.
Types of expenditure Amount (in million Birr)
1. Personal consumption expenditure 4500
Durable consumer goods 1500
Non-durable consumer goods 2000
Services 1000
2. Gross private domestic investment 600
Business fixed investment 250
Construction Expenditure 300
Increases in inventories 50
3. Government expenditure on goods and services 250
Federal government 100
State government 150
4. Net export -50
Exports 150
Imports 200
GDP at current market price 5300
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Income approach: in this approach, GDP is calculated by adding all the incomes accruing to
all factors of production used in producing the national output. It is crucial, however, to note
that some forms of personal incomes are not incorporated in the national income. For instance,
transfer payments (payments which are made to the recipients who have not contributed to the
production of current goods and services in exchange for these payments) are excluded from
national income, as these are mere redistribution of income from taxpayers to the recipients of
transfer payments. Transfer payments may take the form of old age pension, unemployment
benefit, subsidies, etc.
According to the income approach, GDP is the sum incomes to owners of factors of production
plus some other claims on the value of output (depreciation and indirect business tax) less
subsidies and transfer payments.
Example:
Items Value (in million Birr)
1) Compensation of Employees 45623.71
2) Rental Income 1249.32
3) Proprietor‘s Income 10561.21
4) Corporate Profits 16960.33
Subtotal (corporate and proprietor‘s) 27521.54
5) Net interest 5189.73
6) Depreciation 503.84
7) Indirect Business Taxes 476.51
8) Subsidy (11368.95)
Gross Domestic Product 69195.70
9) Income from abroad 2036.20
10) Payments to abroad (11231.90)
NFI (9195.70)
Gross National Income 60000.00
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Limitation of GDP measurement:
The calculation of national income is not an easy task. We face a number of problems in the
estimation of national income, especially in under-developed countries like Ethiopia.
• Definition of a nation: while calculating national income, nation does not mean only the
political or geographical boundaries of a country for calculating the value of final goods
and services produced in the country. It includes income earned by the nationals abroad.
• Stages of economic activities: it is also difficult to determine the stages of economic
activity at which the national income is determined i.e. whether the income should be
calculated at the stage of production or distribution or consumption. It has, therefore,
been agreed that the stage of economic activity may be decided by the objective for
which the national income is being calculated. If the objective is to measure economic
progress, then the production stage can be considered. To measure the welfare of the
people, then the consumption stage should be taken into consideration.
• Transfer payments: this also creates a great difficulty in calculating the national income.
It has generally been agreed that the best way is to consider only the disposal income of
the individuals of groups.
• Underground economy: no imputation is made for the value of goods and services sold
in the illegal market. The underground economy is the part of the economy that people
hide from the government either because they wish to evade taxation or because the
activity is illegal. The parallel exchange rate market is one example.
• Inadequate data: in all most all the countries, difficulty has been faced in the calculation
of national income due to lack of adequate data. Sometimes, the data are not reliable.
• Non-monetized sector: this difficulty is special to developing countries where a
substantial portion of the total produce is not brought to the market for sale. It is either
retained for self-consumption or exchanged for other goods and services.
• Valuation of depreciation: the value of depreciation is deducted from the gross national
product to get net national product. But the valuation of such depreciation is full of
difficulties.
• Changes in price levels: since the national income is in terms of money whose value
itself keeps on changing, it is difficult to make a stable calculation which is assessed in
terms of prices of the base year.
• No focus on quality: it is difficult to account correctly for improvements in the quality of
goods. This has been the case for computers, whose quality has improved dramatically
while their price has fallen sharply. It also applies to other goods such as cars whose
quality changes over time.
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Other income accounts
Apart from GDP and GNP, there are also other social accounts which have equal importance in
macroeconomic analysis. These are:
• Net National Product (NNP)
• National Income (NI)
• Personal Income (PI)
• Personal Disposable Income (PDI)
Net National product (NNP) : GNP as a measure of the economy‘s annual output may have
defect because it fails to take into account capital consumption allowance, which is necessary to
replace the capital goods used up in that year‘s production. Hence, net national product is a
more accurate measure of economy‘s annual output than gross national product and it is given
as:
National income (NI): National income is the income earned by economic resource (input)
suppliers for their contributions of land, labour, capital and entrepreneurial ability, which are
involved in the given year‘s production activity. However, from the components of NNP,
indirect business tax, which is collected by the government, does not reflect the productive
contributions of economic resources because government contributes nothing directly to the
production in return to the indirect business tax. Hence, to get the national income, we must
subtract indirect business tax from net national product.
Personal Income (PI): refers to income earned by persons or households. Persons in the
economy may not earn all the income earned as national income.
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Nominal versus Real GDP
Nominal GDP is the value of all final goods and services produced in a given year when valued
at the prices of that year. That is, nominal GDP = where, P is the general price level
and Q is the quantity of final goods and services produced. Therefore, any change that can
happen in the country‘s GDP is due to changes in price, quantity or both. For example, if prices
are doubled over one year, then GDP will also double even though exactly the same goods and
services are produced as the year before. Hence, GDP that is not adjusted for inflation is called
Nominal GDP.
Real GDP is the value of final goods and services produced in a given year when valued at the
prices of a reference base year. By comparing the value of production in the two years at the
same prices, we reveal the change in output. Hence, to be able to make reasonable comparisons
of GDP overtime we must adjust for inflation.
Given the above information, we can calculate the real and nominal GDP in both years as
follows:
In 2017: In 2018:
Nominal GDP = (20 x 5) + (8 x 50) = $500 The outputs of 2018 valued at the prices of
Real GDP = (20 x 5) + (8 x 50) = $500 2017(the base year).
Nominal GDP= (25 x 20) + (10 x 100) = $1500
Note that both the real and nominal GDP
Real GDP = (25 x 5) + (10 x 50) = $625
values are exactly the same in the base
year.
The GDP Deflator: The calculation of real GDP gives us a useful measure of inflation known
as the GDP deflator. The GDP deflator is the ratio of nominal GDP in a given year to real GDP
of that year. It reflects what‘s happening to the overall level of prices in the economy.
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GDP deflator =
As both the real and nominal GDP values are exactly the same, the GDP deflator in the
base year is always 100.
GDP deflator (2018) = x 100 = x 100= 240, which shows the price in 2018
The Consumer Price Index: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an indicator that measures the
average change in prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. It
compares the current and base year cost of a basket of goods of fixed composition. If we denote
the base year quantities of the various goods by q'0 and their base year prices by р'0, the cost of
the basket in the base year is ∑р'0*q'0, where the summation is over all the goods in the basket.
The cost of a basket of the same quantities but at today's prices is ∑p't,q'0, where pt is today's
price. The CPI is the ratio of today's cost to the base year cost.
P' * q'
CPI t o
po' * qo'
(Recovery)
Expansion
Boom/peak
Recession
Trough/
depression
Ti me
Boom/peak: it is a phase in which the economy is producing the highest level of output in the
business cycle. It is the point which marks the end of economic expansion and the beginning of
recession. In this phase, the economy‘s output is growing faster than its long-term (potential)
trend and is therefore unsustainable. Due to very high degree of utilization of resources,
unemployment level is low; business is good; and it is a period of prosperity.
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Trough/Depression: - this phase is the lowest point in a business cycle. It marks the end of a
recession and the beginning of economic recovery/expansion. During this period, there is an
excessive amount of unemployment and idle productive capacity.
Recovery/Expansion: - during this phase, the economy starts to grow or recover, i.e. there is an
option of economic activity between a trough and a peak. In this phase, more and more
resources are employed in the production process; output increases, unemployment level
diminishes and national income rises. When this expansion of the economy reaches its
maximum, the economy once again comes to another boom or peak.
Note that:
• One business cycle includes the point from one peak to the next peak or from one trough to
the next.
• A business cycle is a short-term fluctuation in economic activities.
• The trend path of GDP is the path GDP would take if factors of production were fully
employed.
• Business cycles may vary in duration and intensity.
Macroeconomic Problems
Unemployment
Can we say that every person who does not have a job is unemployed?
Labor force includes group of people within a specified age (for instance, people whose ages are
greater than 14 are considered as job seekers though formal employment requires a minimum of
18 years of age bracket) who are actually employed and those who are without a job but are
actively searching for a job, according to the Ethiopian labour law. Therefore, the labour force
does not include: Children <14 and retired people age >60, and also people in mental and
correctional institutions, and very sick and disabled people etc.
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A person in the labour force is said to be unemployed if he/she is without a job but is actively
searching for a job.
Types of unemployment
2. Structural unemployment: results from mismatch between the skills or locations of job
seekers and the requirements or locations of the vacancies. E.g. An agricultural graduate
looking for a job at ―Piassa‖. The causes could be change in demand pattern or
technological change.
3. Cyclical unemployment: results due to absence of vacancies. This usually happens due to
deficiency in demand for commodities/ the low performance of the economy to create jobs.
E.g. During recession
Note: Frictional and structural unemployment are more or less unavoidable; hence, they are
known as natural level of unemployment.
When the unemployment rate is equal to the natural rate of unemployment, we say the economy
is at full employment. Therefore, full employment does not mean zero unemployment.
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Inflation
It is the sustainable increase in the general or average price levels commodities. Price index
serves to measure inflation. Two points about this definition need emphasis. First, the increase
price must be a sustained one, and it is not simply once time increase in prices. Second, it must
be the general level of prices, which is rising; increase in individual prices, which can be offset
by fall in prices of other goods is not considered as inflation.
where, Pt is price index ( eg. CPI) at time t and Pt-1 is price index at time t-1.
Causes of inflation
The causes of inflation are generally classified into two major groups: demand pull and cost
push inflation.
A. Demand pull inflation: according to demand pull theory of inflation, inflation results
from a rapid increase in demand for goods and services than supply of goods and
services. This is a situation where ―too much money chases too few goods.‖
B. Cost push or supply side inflation: it arises due to continuous decline in aggregate
supply. This may be due to bad weather, increase in wage, or the prices of other inputs.
Increase in inflation rate will raise the nominal interest rate and the opportunity cost of
holding money. If people are to hold lower money balances on average, they must make
more frequent trips to the bank to withdraw money. This is metaphorically called the
shoe-leather cost of inflation.
3. Inflation reduces investment by increasing nominal interest rate and creating uncertainty
about macroeconomic policies.
4. Inflation redistributes wealth among individuals. Most loan agreements specify a nominal
interest rate, which is based on the rate of inflation expected at the time of the agreement.
If inflation turns out to be higher than expected, the debtor wins and the creditor loses
because the debtor repays the loan with less valuable dollars. If inflation turns out to be
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lower than expected, the creditor wins and the debtor loses because the repayment is
worth more than the two parties anticipated.
5. Unanticipated inflation hurts individuals with fixed income and pension.
6. High inflation is always associated with variability of prices which induces firms to
change their price list more frequently and requires printing and distributing new
catalogue. This is known as menu cost of inflation.
Budget deficit
The overriding objectives of the government‘s fiscal policy are building prudent public financial
management, financing the required expenditure with available resource and refrain from
possibility of unsustainable fiscal deficit.
The government receives revenue from taxes and uses it to pay for government purchases. Any
excess of tax revenue over government spending is called public saving, which can be either
positive (a budget surplus) or negative (a budget deficit).
When a government spends more than it collects in taxes, it faces a budget deficit, which it
finances by borrowing from internal and external borrowing. The accumulation of past
borrowing is the government debt. Debate about the appropriate amount of government debt in
the United States is as old as the country itself. Alexander Hamilton believed that ―a national
debt, if it is not excessive, will be to us a national blessing,‖ while James Madison argued that
―a public debt is a public curse‖.
When we see Ethiopian case, to augment available domestic financing options, the government
opted to finance its fiscal deficit from external sources on concessional terms. In particular, the
Government of Ethiopia finances its budget by accessing external loans on concessional terms.
As a rule of thumb, non-concessional loans cannot be used to finance the budgetary activities.
On the other hand, external non-concessional loans are used to finance projects that are run by
State Owned Enterprises. In recent years, the government accessed loans from international
market on non-concessional terms to finance feasible and profitable projects managed by State
Owned Enterprises (SOEs). The country‘s total public debt contains central government,
government guaranteed and public enterprises.
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Trade deficit
The national income accounts identity shows that net capital outflow always equals the trade
balance. Mathematically,
S−I = NX.
Net Capital Outflow = Trade Balance
Net cash out flow is Saving(S) – Investment (I)
Balance of Trade = Merchandize Exports – Merchandize Imports
• If this balance between S − I and NX is positive, we have a trade surplus, so we say that
there is a surplus in the current account. In this case, we are net lenders in world
financial markets, and we are exporting more goods than we are importing.
• If the balance between S − I and NX is negative, we have a trade deficit then we say
that there is a deficit in the current account. In this case, we are net borrowers in world
financial markets, and we are importing more goods than we are exporting.
• If S − I and NX are exactly zero, we are said to have balanced trade because the value
of imports equals the value of exports.
The ultimate policy objective of any country in general is to have sustainable economic growth
and development. Policy measures are geared at achieving moderate inflation rate, keeping
unemployment rate low, balancing foreign trade, stabilizing exchange and interest rates, etc and
in general attaining stable and well-functioning macroeconomic environment.
Monetary policy
Monetary policy refers to the adoption of suitable policy regarding the control of money supply
and the management of credit which is important measure for adjusting aggregate demand to
control inflation. It is concerned with the money supply, lending rates and interest rates and is
often administered by a central bank.
Monetary policy is a highly flexible stabilization policy tool. For instance, during economic
recession where output falls with a fall in aggregate demand, monetary policy aims at increasing
demand and hence production as well as employment will follow the same pattern of demand.
In contrast, at the time of economic boom where demand exceeds production and treat to create
inflation, the monetary policy instruments are utilized that could offset the condition and
achieve price stability by counter cyclical action upon money supply.
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Government monetary policy regulation is under responsibilities of Central Banks. Central
Bank controls the money supply to control nominal interest rates. Investment and saving
decisions are based on the real interest rate. When government lowers interest rate, firms
borrow more and invest more. Higher interest rates mean less investment.
Fiscal policy
Fiscal policy involves the use of government spending, taxation and borrowing to influence
both the pattern of economic activity and also the level and growth of aggregate demand, output
and employment. It is important to realize that changes in fiscal policy affect both aggregate
demand (AD) and aggregate supply (AS). Most governments use fiscal policy to promote stable
and sustainable growth while pursuing its income redistribution effect to reduce poverty. Fiscal
policy therefore plays an important role in influencing the behaviour of the economy as
monetary policy does. The choice of the government fiscal policy can have both short and long
term influences. The most important tools of implementing the government fiscal policy are
taxes, expenditure and public debt.
Traditionally fiscal policy has been seen as an instrument of demand management. This means
that changes in government spending, direct and indirect taxation and the budget balance can be
used to help smooth out some of the volatility of real national output particularly when the
economy has experienced an external shock.
Fiscal policy decisions have a widespread effect on the everyday decisions and behaviour of
individual households and businesses. Thus, it is mainly used to achieve internal balance, by
adjusting aggregate demand to available supply. It also promotes external balance by ensuring
sustainable current account balance and by reducing risk of external crisis. In general, it helps
promote economic growth through more and better education and health care.
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Distribution: The distribution functions of the fiscal policy are implemented mainly through
progressive taxation and targeted budget subsidy. Virtually allocation determines how much
will be set aside and for what purpose, the distribution function of fiscal policy is to determine
more specifically how those funds will be distributed throughout each segment of the economy.
For instance, the government might apportion a share of its budget toward social welfare
programs, such as food security and asset building for the most vulnerable and disadvantaged in
society. It might also allocate for low-cost housing construction and mass transportation.
Stabilization: Stabilization is another important function of fiscal policy in that the purpose of
budgeting is to provide stable economic growth. Government expenditure needs particularly in
developing countries such as Ethiopia are unlimited. But its source of financing is limited. Thus
without some restraints on spending or limiting the level of expenditure with available financial
resources the economic growth of the nation could become unstable, creating imbalances in
external sector as well as resulting in high prices.
Development: The fourth and most important function of fiscal policy is that of promoting
development. Development seems to indicate economic growth, and that is, in fact, its overall
purpose. However, fiscal policy is far more complicated than determining how much the gov-
ernment will tax citizens in a given year and then determining how that money will be spent.
True economic growth occurs when various projects are financed and carried out using budg-
etary finance. This stems from the belief that the private sector cannot grow the economy by
itself. Instead, government input and influence are needed. The government is responsible for
providing public goods, reduce externalities and correct market distortions in order to pave the
way for private sector.
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Chapter summary
The other basic issue in macroeconomics is business cycle and it refers to the recurrent ups and
downs in the level of economic activity. Countries usually experience ups and downs in the
level of total output and employment over time. In connection to this, unemployment and
inflation are among the major macroeconomic problems. Unemployment refers to group of
people who are in a specified age (labor force), who are without a job but are actively searching
for a job. Inflation is a situation of continuous increase in the general price level. It is a
sustained increase in the general price level. Based on the sources of inflation, we can identify
demand two types of inflation: cost push and demand pull inflation.
The ultimate policy objective of any country in general is to have sustainable economic growth
and development. Monetary policy refers to the adoption of suitable policy regarding the control
of money supply and the management of credit which is important measure for adjusting
aggregate demand to control inflation. It is concerned with the money supply, lending rates and
interest rates and is often administered by a central bank. Fiscal policy involves the use
of government spending, taxation and borrowing to influence both the pattern of economic
activity and also the level and growth of aggregate demand, output and employment
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Review questions
1. What is the difference between GDP and GNP? Which one is a better measure of the
economic performance of a country?
2. What is unemployment? How can we measure it?
3. What is inflation? What are its causes? What is its impact on the economy?
4. Discuss the three major differences between CPI and GDP deflator.
5. Consider the following information for a particular economy.
Total population = 60 million Number of employed = 30 million
Total labor force = 40 million Natural rate of unemployment = 12%
6. Consider an economy that produces and consumes Bread and Automobile. Data for two
different years 2005 and 2010 is given in the following table.
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