FM9 - Financial Statement Modelling

3/5/20
FINANCIAL STATEMENT
MODELLING
Sumber utama : buku “Finansial Modelling 3rd Edition” karangan Simon Benninga dan modul ”Pemodelan Keuangan” yang
disusun oleh Mariana Ing Malelak.,S.E.,M.SM.,M.Rech dan Gesti Memarista.,S.E.,M.SM (dengan berbagai modifikasi)
157
The income
statements
is more like a
of the company’s operations

for a specified period of time
↓↓
it report revenues first and then deduct any
expenses for the period
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The balance sheet is a
of a company’s health
↓↓
it tells us
the firm’s assets and liabilities
at a given point in time
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Almost all financial-statement

models are
S a l e s D r ive n
↓↓
many of the balance-sheet and
income-statement items are
directly or indirectly related
to sales.
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So we need a
Plug
Variable
↓↓
The balance-sheet item that will “close” the model:
• to guarantee that assets and liabilities are equal
• the way the firm finance its incremental investments
• it will be one of three financial balance-sheet items
(1) cash & marketable securities, (2) debt, (3) stock dividend
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Example: Historical Financial

Statements
Gourmet Coffee Inc.

Gourmet Coffee Inc.
Balance Sheet Income Statement
December 31, 2006 For Year Ended December
31, 2006
Assets 1000 Debt 400
Revenues 2000
Equity 600
Less: costs (1600)
Total 1000 Total 1000 Net Income 400
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Example: Pro Forma Income Statement

Gourmet Coffee Inc.
• Initial Assumptions Pro Forma Income
– Revenues will grow at 15% Statement
(2,000*1.15) For Year Ended 2007
– All items are tied directly to Revenues 2,300
sales and the current
relationships are optimal
Less: costs (1,840)
– Consequently, all other
items will also grow at 15%
Net Income 460
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Example: Pro Forma Balance Sheet
• Case I
Gourmet Coffee Inc.
– Dividends are the plug
variable, so equity
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
increases at 15%
Case 1
– Dividends = 460 NI – 90
increase in equity = 370
Assets 1,150 Debt 460
Equity 690
Total 1,150 Total 1,150
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Example: Pro Forma Balance Sheet
• Case II
– Debt is the plug variable Gourmet Coffee Inc.
and no dividends are paid
– Debt = 1,150 – (600+460) = Pro Forma Balance Sheet
90 Case 1
– Repay 400 – 90 = 310 in
Assets 1,150 Debt 90
debt
Equity 1,060
Total 1,150 Total 1,150
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Assume that cash and marketable securities will be the plug.

It means:
• The firm sells no additional stock, does not pay back any of its
existing debt, and does not raise any more debt
• All incremental financing (if needed) for the firm will come from
the cash and marketable securities account;
• If the firm has additional cash, it will go into this account.
𝑐𝑎𝑠ℎ & 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 & 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 − 𝑛𝑒𝑡 𝑓𝑖𝑥𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠
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STEPS
1. Isikan nilai untuk income statement dan balance sheet
di tahun ke 0 berdasarkan keterangan di baris ke 1 – 11.
2. Isikan nilai untuk tahun ke 1, mulai dengan:
1. Sales
2. Interest earned on cash marketable securities &
depreciation (diaverage)
3. Cash & marketable securities à plug variable à selisih
total L+E dengan CA dan NFA
4. Depreciation di balance sheet (penjumlahan akumulasi
depresiasi tahun lalu + depresiasi tahun ini)
5. Accumulated retained earnings di balance sheet
(penjumlahan acc RE tahun lalu + RE tahun ini)
6. Akun yang lainnya dapat dicopy dari akun tahun ke 0
3. isikan nilai untuk tahun ke 2 – 5 dengan copy dari tahun
1
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Circular References
…when the formula is trying to calculate itself…
For example
- a formula in A1 refers to cell A2, A2 refers to
A3, and A3 refers back to A1.
- D3 = D1 + D2 + D3
Whatever message you see, get out of it by

clicking on Cancel and go to
Tools| Options|Calculation|Iteration.
File| Options| Formula
In this dialog box click the box labeled Iteration
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TAHUN PERTAMA
1. SALES
2. Depresiasi di Income statement (rate x rata2 aset at
cost)
3. Debt tetap
4. Cash & marketable securities à total liabilities +
Equity – current assets – net fixed assets
5. Interest on cash & marketable securities di income
statement (rate x rata2 cash & marketable
securities)
6. Depresiasi di balance sheet = akumulasi depresiasi
tahun lalu + beban depresiasi di income statement
7. Accumulated retained earning di balance sheet =
akumulasi RE tahun lalu + RE tahun ini di income
statement
8. Akun lain dicopy dari akun tahun lalu
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FREE CASH FLOW

cash that the firm is free to
distribute to creditors and
stockholders because it is not
needed for working capital or fixed
asset investments
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The cash flow statement

summarizes the
sources and uses
of cash
↓↓
Operating Activity – includes net income and changes in

most current accounts
Investment Activity – includes changes in fixed assets
Financing Activity – includes changes in notes payable,
long-term debt, and equity accounts as well as dividends
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• Source of cash is any activity that brings cash

into the firm.
• Use of cash is any activity that causes cash to
leave the firm.
Sources of Cash Uses of Cash
Decrease in an asset Increase in an asset
account account
Increase in a liability Decrease in a liability
account account
Increase in an owner’s Decrease in an owners’
equity account equity account
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FM9 - Financial Statement Modelling

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3/5/20

of the company’s operations

The balance sheet is a

Almost all financial-statement

Example: Historical Financial

Gourmet Coffee Inc.

Example: Pro Forma Income Statement

Example: Pro Forma Balance Sheet

Total 1,150 Total 1,150

Example: Pro Forma Balance Sheet

Assume that cash and marketable securities will be the plug.

Whatever message you see, get out of it by

FREE CASH FLOW

The cash flow statement

Operating Activity – includes net income and changes in

• Source of cash is any activity that brings cash

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