Earth's Vital Signs' Worse Than at Any Time in Human History, S

Earth’s ‘vital signs’ worse than at any time in
human history, scientists warn
A church engulfed in flames in Lahaina, Hawaii, during the deadliest US wildfire in more than a century. Photograph:
Matthew Thayer/AP
Life on planet is in peril, say climate experts, as they call for a rapid and just
transition to a sustainable future
Earth’s “vital signs” are worse than at any time in human history, an international
team of scientists has warned, meaning life on the planet is in peril.
Their report found that 20 of the 35 planetary vital signs they use to track the
climate crisis are at record extremes. As well as greenhouse gas emissions, global
temperature and sea level rise, the indicators also include human and livestock
population numbers.
Many climate records were broken by enormous margins in 2023, including global
air temperature, ocean temperature and Antarctic sea ice extent, the researchers
said. The highest monthly surface temperature ever recorded was in July and was
probably the hottest the planet has been in 100,000 years.
The scientists also highlighted an extraordinary wildfire season in Canada that

produced unprecedented carbon dioxide emissions. These totalled 1bn tonnes of
CO2, equivalent to the entire annual output of Japan, the world’s fifth biggest
polluter. They said the huge area burned could indicate a tipping point into a new
fire regime.
The researchers urged a transition to a global economy that prioritised human

wellbeing and cut the overconsumption and excessive emissions of the rich. The
top 10% of emitters were responsible for almost 50% of global emissions in 2019,
they said.
A woman walks her bicycle through a street flooded by heavy rains from Typhoon Sanba in Maoming, southern
Guangdong province. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Dr Christopher Wolf, at Oregon State University (OSU) in the US and a lead author of
the report, said: “Without actions that address the root problem of humanity taking
more from Earth than it can safely give, we’re on our way to the potential collapse of
natural and socioeconomic systems and a world with unbearable heat and
shortages of food and freshwater.
“By 2100, as many as 3 billion to 6 billion people may find themselves outside
Earth’s livable regions
(https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/22/global-heating-human-
climate-niche), meaning they will be encountering severe heat, limited food
availability and elevated mortality rates.”
Prof William Ripple, also at OSU, said: “Life on our planet is clearly under siege. The
statistical trends show deeply alarming patterns of climate-related variables and
disasters. We also found little progress to report as far as humanity combating
climate change.
“Our goal is to communicate climate facts and make policy recommendations. It is
a moral duty of scientists and our institutions to alert humanity of any potential
existential threat and to show leadership in taking action.”
The analysis, published in the journal Bioscience

(http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biad080), is an update of a 2019 report
(https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/70/1/8/5610806) that has been
endorsed by 15,000 scientists.
“For several decades, scientists have consistently warned of a future marked by

extreme climatic conditions caused by ongoing human activities,” the report says.
“Unfortunately, time is up … we are pushing our planetary systems into dangerous
instability.”
Prof Tim Lenton, at the University of Exeter in the UK, the co-author, said: “These
record extremes are alarming in themselves, and they are also in danger of
triggering tipping points
(https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/08/world-on-brink-five-
climate-tipping-points-study-finds%5C) that could do irreversible damage and
further accelerate climate change.
“Our best hope to prevent a cascade of climate tipping points is to identify and
trigger positive tipping points
(https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/20/super-tipping-points-
climate-electric-cars-meat-emissions) in our societies and economies, to ensure a
rapid and just transition to a sustainable future.”
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‘Off-the-charts records’: has humanity finally broken the climate? Read more
The scientists said: “We are shocked by the ferocity of the extreme weather events
in 2023, [which caused] profoundly distressing scenes of suffering to unfold. We are
afraid of the uncharted territory that we have now entered.”
A damaged neighbourhood in Derna, days after Storm Daniel devastated eastern Libya last month. Photograph: EPA
The report highlighted severe flooding in China

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/07/china-floods-rain-weather-
deaths-jilin-province-shulan-city) and India
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/14/floods-and-landslides-kill-
dozens-missing-in-northern-india), extreme heatwaves in the US
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/23/us-heat-warnings-22-states-
record-heatwave-continues) and an exceptionally intense Mediterranean storm
(https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/15/weather-tracker-libya-
floods-storm-daniel-medicane) led to the deaths of thousands of people in Libya.
The report said that by mid-September, there had been 38 days with global average
temperatures more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, which is the world’s long-
term goal for limiting the climate crisis. Until this year, such days were a rarity, the
researchers said.
Other policies recommended by the scientists included phasing out fossil fuel
subsidies (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/24/fossil-fuel-
subsidies-imf-report-climate-crisis-oil-gas-coal), ramping up forest protection, a
shift towards plant-based diets in wealthy countries and adopting international
treaties (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/11/what-is-the-
fossil-fuel-non-proliferation-treaty) to end new coal projects and phase out oil and
gas.
“We also call to stabilise and gradually decrease the human population with gender
justice through voluntary family planning and by supporting women’s and girls’
education and rights, which reduces fertility rates,” they said.
“Big problems need big solutions. Therefore, we must shift our perspective on the
climate emergency from being just an isolated environmental issue to a systemic,
existential threat. Although global heating is devastating, it represents only one
aspect of the escalating and interconnected environmental crisis that we are facing
– eg, biodiversity loss, fresh water scarcity, and pandemics.”
Dr Glen Peters, at the Global Carbon Project, said recently that the preliminary
estimate for global CO2 emissions in 2023 was a rise of 1%
(https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/1713862688206471546) to yet another
record. Global emissions must fall by 45% to have a good chance of staying under
1.5C of heating.
In September, a different analysis of the Earth system using nine planetary

boundaries (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/13/earth-well-
outside-safe-operating-space-for-humanity-scientists-find) concluded that this
planet’s life support systems had been so damaged that Earth was “well outside the
safe operating space for humanity”. The planetary boundaries are the limits of key
global systems – such as climate, water and wildlife diversity – beyond which their
ability to maintain a healthy planet is in danger of failing.
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Earth’s ‘vital signs’ worse than at any time in

human history, scientists warn

The scientists also highlighted an extraordinary wildfire season in Canada that

The researchers urged a transition to a global economy that prioritised human

The analysis, published in the journal Bioscience

“For several decades, scientists have consistently warned of a future marked by

after newsletter promotion

The report highlighted severe flooding in China

In September, a different analysis of the Earth system using nine planetary

1. Daily environmental journalism is a powerful reminder of the damage being done

At the Guardian, we have environment reporters stationed globally. We have

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