All English Editorials 04-12-2023
All English Editorials 04-12-2023
All English Editorials 04-12-2023
Editorial Delhi
T
he Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) trumped somewhat relatedly, what explains the and columnist 26%point lead among the OBCs in Rajasthan, leadership that can embody progressive ideas.
the Congress in all the three States where perennially feeble state of the Opposition 24%point lead in Madhya Pradesh, and a Since the old guard is resolutely status quoist, this
the two were in a facetoface fight, wrest (principally the Congress party)? 13%point lead in Chhattisgarh. not only harms the party by stanching intraparty
ing control of both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh At least among certain upwardly mobile and competition and the emergence of a young
and retaining power in Madhya Pradesh. A re Explaining the BJP’s triumph dominant OBCs, support for the BJP now remains leadership but they also veto the taking up of new
markable revival in Telangana that pushed the In some respects, the BJP’s triumph in all three resilient and insulated through many contingent ideas such as the caste census. The caste census
BJP to the third place was the only consolation for States, i.e., Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, factors. Consider some of these factors: the two agenda was virtually put into pause by the
the Congress. The BJP’s victories signify a conso Rajasthan, represents a puzzle. However, it might incumbent Chief Ministers belonging to OBC Congress in three State elections (even in Madhya
lidation of its hold over the Hindi heartland and appear much more of a puzzle to those who have castes and often emphasising their identity; Pradesh, where the CSDS NDTV survey evidence
in straight contests against its principal national consistently laid emphasis on the organisational Rajasthan expanding the OBC quota and indicated a clear plurality of voters agreeing with
opponent. The Congress had won all three States machinery and the welfare model of the BJP to announcing caste census; the popularity of Mr. the plank).
five years ago, though it lost Madhya Pradesh explain its electoral successes. Those factors are Baghel among farming OBC communities such as Consider the modus operandi of Congress Chief
midway through its term to politically opportu important but not decisive. Kurmis and Sahus. Ministers such as Mr. Baghel and Mr. Gehlot. They
nistic mass defections. True, the Congress’s con In Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, the welfare The urban and upwardly mobile OBCs not just sidelined strong rival leaders (such as
solation prize in Telangana is remarkable, beat plank rested with the incumbent Congress, and certainly identify and relate more with the Sachin Pilot and T.S. Singh Deo) but also
ing back a regional party that had sought to both Congress Chief Ministers, i.e., Bhupesh ideological agenda of the National Democratic marginalised their State Congress organisation,
become synonymous with the struggle for State Baghel and Ashok Gehlot, respectively, Alliance and the charismatic leadership of the preferring to operate through bureaucrats and
hood. But to regain support in the Hindispeak commanded (as per survey evidence) broad BJP. Consider some survey markers of the JISTTIF chosen ministerial aides. Their excesses have
ing States in time for the Lok Sabha election next popular satisfaction in this respect. research, where the responses of OBC voters and been enabled by a weakened high Command.
year seems an uphill struggle for the party. The Also, in both these States, paralysing factional upper caste voters of Rajasthan appear to be The resulting atrophy of the State organisations,
overall electoral map now suggests a divergence struggles and centralised control of the BJP had virtually identical. On the question of however, also means that the party struggles to
between the BJP strongholds in the north and the weakened its Statelevel leadership. The resultant responsibility for high inflation resting with the convert latent satisfaction with the respective
west, and peninsular India where nonBJP parties organisational inertia had characterised much of national or State government: 54% upper castes Congress Chief Ministers into actual votes for the
are in power. But the party’s performance in Te the last five years of the Opposition BJP in both and 48% OBC respondents say State government, Congress party on election day. Meanwhile, the
langana where it won eight seats compared to these States. Meanwhile, in Madhya Pradesh, the as opposed to 31% Dalits and 33% tribals. Even on Congress lost much of its tribal support base in
just one last time is notable. The setback to the State BJP leadership was weighed down by a questions relating to whether ‘freebies’ are right both the northern Sarguja and the southern
Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana is not twodecade long antiincumbency. Therefore, or wrong, upwardly mobile OBCs (Yadav, Kurmi, Bastar belt of Chhattisgarh (where it had swept in
ordinary antiincumbency, but a pointed rejec one must desist from reflexively ascribing every Lodhi, Gujjar) appear ambiguous and divided, the previous election). This is again a reminder of
tion of its dynastic reign devoid of any ideological electoral victory of the BJP to a certain popular close to the position of upper castes, in contrast the perils of not advancing a distinctive
content. The BJP campaign had pivoted around welfare scheme or a superior organisational to the overwhelming support evinced by the Most ideological agenda
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, relegating its re machinery. These advantages, after all, had not Backward Castes, Dalit and tribal voters. The Congress’s victory in Telangana provides
gional leaders, including sitting Chief Minister materialised for the BJP in earlier State elections, not only an important consolation point but also
Shivraj Singh Chouhan of Madhya Pradesh, to the including the Karnataka election in May. The state of the Opposition and the Congress a way forward. The strategy in Telangana (and
background. This was a highly risky strategy, con The BJP’s victories in these State elections, as The charismatic leadership of Mr. Modi, who took the election in Karnataka earlier) has been the
sidering the party’s defeat in Karnataka in May af in previous elections north of the Vindhyas, owe In much of the a significant political risk fronting all three inverse of its strategy in northern India. In
ter it antagonised regional satraps and caste themselves to two principal factors. First, a Hindi belt, the elections, remains crucial in melding this Telangana, the specific yearlong mobilisations
groups. In the end, the party won 115 out of 199 dominant (and in some respects unchallenged) expanded support base of the party and among Dalit and tribal voters, and electoral
Bharatiya
(one yet to be held) seats in Rajasthan, 164 of 230 ideological agenda, represented by the expansive smoothening out divisions among them through promises such as the significant subsidy to tenant
rubric of Hindu nationalism. Second, a trusted Janata Party evoking a populist personalitybased appeal. Mr. farmers, had introduced a pronounced
in Madhya Pradesh, and 54 of 90 in Chhattisgarh.
These decisive numbers give the BJP central and charismatic national leadership (chiefly now possesses Modi also remains a singularly powerful force progressive agenda into the electoral contest. In
leadership the latitude to have its way in govern Prime Minister Narendra Modi) which is highly a core perhaps when facing an incumbent Opposition both these States, the Congress has also evolved a
ment formation in all three States. The lion’s adept at constantly reimagining and activating ideological vote leader, electorally mobilising all the various credible leadership which can embody such an
share of the credit for the victories belongs to Mr. this ideological agenda through supercharged bank that constituencies harbouring latent feelings of ideological agenda.
Modi, reinforcing his authority ahead of 2024 electoral campaigns. In much of the Hindi belt, ensures the antiincumbency. Mr. Modi’s personal popularity In summary, the Congress might console itself
when he will be seeking a third straight term. Mr. the BJP now possesses a core ideological vote has been perhaps a decisive factor in ensuring by claiming that it has now become the leading
party a
Chouhan chose not to raise his profile in the cam bank that ensures a forbidding structural that no incumbent Congress Chief Minister of a party of southern India. Yet, the BJP remains the
advantage to the party in any election. In forbidding large State has come back to power in the entirety nationally dominant party, and it increasingly
paign, allowing the central leadership to take full
responsibility in Madhya Pradesh, just as in Rajas Rajasthan, for example, survey evidence (Axis structural of the Modi era (the last time was perhaps Tarun appears that the saffron dominance might not
than and Chhattisgarh. Rajasthan Chief Minister India Today) suggests three times as many upper advantage in Gogoi in the Assam election in 2011). face a credible rival challenge either in 2024 or
Ashok Gehlot fought a spirited battle, and though castes voted for the BJP as the Congress. The any election Now, let us come to the factors explaining the even for some time beyond it.
he lost, prevented a complete washout of the
Congress. In Chhattisgarh, the party collapsed in
the storm of allegations of corruption and under
the weight of botched social engineering that iso
lated the tribal communities. All three heartland
States have exposed many a chink in the Con
India, disability inclusion and the power of ‘by’
gress armour, particularly its two prongs of social
D
justice and welfare schemes. These are essential isability as an identity and entity exists at Persons with Disabilities, which advocates Additionally, engagement of employers’
but not sufficient tools for victory. Trust in leader the intersection of multiple changing attitudes and perceptions towards federations, including those representing small
ship, representation of social groups, astute se vulnerabilities — social, economic and persons with disabilities and viewing inclusion and mediumsized enterprises, as well as with
lection of candidates, effective campaigning, ide gender — with each facet requiring careful from a social development dimension. Disability trade unions, has shown to have great potential to
ological clarity and, above all, organisational consideration when conceptualising action for inclusion is rooted in assuring the rights of promote the employment of persons with
cohesion are required, especially to retain power. equity. persons with disabilities and recognising the disabilities.
Calling for a more representative political and Globally, 1.3 billion people (which is equivalent Michiko economic benefits of inclusion.
social order is one thing, but turning that into an to nearly the entire population of India) live with Miyamoto The SPARK project
obsessive call for a caste census is quite another. some form of disability. Of them, 80% live in is Director, Greater challenges in rural areas The ILO and the International Fund for
Rahul Gandhi’s campaign for a castebased cen developing countries; further, 70% of them live in International Labour In India, the Central and State governments have Agricultural Development (IFAD), in collaboration
sus, if at all it had any electoral impact, was not a rural areas. Current systems are designed for Organization (ILO) various schemes for persons with disabilities and with the Women’s Development Corporation in
differentiator in these elections. In combination persons without disabilities and end up being Decent Work a unique id for persons with disabilities (UDID) Maharashtra, are implementing the Sparking
with other factors that worked against the Con exclusionary to people with disabilities, resulting Technical Support card, established as part of the Rights of Persons Disability Inclusive Rural Transformation (SPARK)
gress and for the BJP, it had little traction. The in them experiencing higher instances of poverty, Team (DWT)/Country with Disabilities Act (2016). The first step is project. Through this project, persons with
lack of access to education and opportunities, Office (CO)New Delhi awareness to ensure lastmile connectivity of the disabilities were put in the lead, being identified
BJP’s Hindutva politics continued to resonate bet
ter across caste groups in the heartland. The informality and other forms of social and benefits enumerated for people with disabilities from the villages, and trained as Disability
BJP’s campaigning was laced with communal economic discrimination. by the government, which begins with the Inclusion Facilitators (DIFs). The DIFs engage
propaganda, and had a more effective outreach According to the English dictionary, “For” is capacitybuilding of community leaders who can with the community, persons with disabilities,
to subaltern segments. Caste politics as a counter often used when a person is receiving something advocate for this at the grassroots level. This is caregivers of persons with disabilities, women
to communalism is hardly inspiring. The BJP, by and “By” is to “identify the agent performing an especially important in rural areas, where from selfhelp groups and other stakeholders to
denying a ticket to Yunus Khan, its lone Muslim action”. This difference is crucial when it comes persons with disabilities tend to face greater raise awareness about disability inclusion and
MLA in Rajasthan, removed the last traces of reli to disability inclusion, as the approach is Ulaç Demirag challenges when compared to their urban barriers to inclusion. The DIFs identify women
gious inclusivity from its benches. The BJP and completely different if it is “by” persons with counterparts, with even more limited access to with disabilities and mainstream them in existing
is Country Director
the Congress appealed to women, tribal com disabilities being a part of the process and not and Representative, education and employment. Some selfhelp groups for social and economic
munities, and youth through mixes of welfare “for” them, without them in the process. International Fund for developmental schemes, too, exclude them. They development, where these women have been
schemes. The BJP had more takers as the results Agricultural are viewed as objects of charity and not as able to access funds to start an enterprise. The
show — the possible differentiators for it being A case for inclusion Development (IFAD) persons with agency with an ability to participate SPARK project has been able to bring an
leadership and the strong tailwind of Hindu iden At the outset, the inclusion of persons with India, Part of Team in decisionmaking processes. Rural areas also attitudinal shift towards persons with disabilities,
tity politics. Mr. Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and disabilities into the economy can help boost UN India have high agricultural dependence and face the right from the societal to administrative levels.
the party’s nominal nod to nondynastic politics global GDP between 3% to 7%, as per the study by heightened risk of climate calamities arising from The goal of social justice cannot be achieved
in the election of Mallikarjun Kharge as president the International Labour Organization (ILO), rising sea levels, reduced access to clean water without the inclusion of persons with disabilities
had some resonance in Telangana where the rul “The price of exclusion: The economic and food, hurricanes, heatwaves and floods, with in all spheres of development, starting with rural
consequences of excluding people with There need to rural people at the frontlines of these challenges. areas and rural resilience. Evidence shows a
ing BRS relied heavily on Chief Minister K. Chan
disabilities from the world of work”. be more A bottomup approach to disability inclusion is bidirectional link to poverty, nutrition, and
drashekar Rao’s family, but against the BJP in the
heartland, these were not adequate. We believe that everyone has the right to equal inclusive crucial to build productive pathways out of hunger, and as a consequence, there needs to be
The Congress got a lot right in Telangana treatment and opportunities at work, agnostic of opportunities poverty and ensure that persons with disabilities more inclusive opportunities and employment in
though, where its strategy mirrored the success any attributes other than the ability to do the job. and are recognised as active members of society and rural areas. Given the historic marginalisation of
ful playbook in Karnataka. It managed to assem The reality, however, is mixed. The current employment in the economy. persons with disabilities and the backsliding of
ble one dominant caste, Other Backward Classes, employment scenario is limited, providing fewer The private sector holds a key in promoting the progress on the Sustainable Development
the rural areas
Dalits and the religious minorities behind it. The jobs for persons with disabilities and the employment of persons with disabilities. In Goals, a fundamental shift in commitment,
perpetuating stereotypes that create further as a majority of addition to a robust legal framework, experience solidarity, financing and action is critical. It is
Congress call to reject the BRS’s Dorala (feudal)
barriers for people with disabilities to access the persons with shows the importance of engaging the private about time that the voices and needs of persons
Telangana and embrace Prajala Telangana (the
rule of the people) was received well by the sub labour market. It is also in direct contravention of disabilities sector and building the confidence of companies with disabilities be prioritised at the centre of the
altern social groups that have felt the weight of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of live here to hire and retain workers with disabilities. global development agenda.
feudalism and social discrimination. The party’s
central leadership could harness the skillset of its LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
State unit president Revanth Reddy, and the so
cial appeal of Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka, a Dalit The mandate alliance can create in its politically crucial Hindi election. However, it is down this time. in Madhya Pradesh and
leader who went on a Statewide foot march, into In spite of the Bhartiya formation is not sustained heartland has farfetched to say that they G. David Milton, retain Rajasthan. But the
a winning force. As for the BRS, its cleverness has Janata Party being unable in its functioning. The demonstrated that it still have brightened the Maruthancode, Tamil Nadu party appeared to be too
hit a speed breaker. Unlike the Dravidian parties, to count upon anything as components of INDIA stood retains its preeminence in prospects of the BJP scoring over confident. The victories
the BRS has no ideological essence to sustain it what would be called aside in all the five States. that part of the country a hattrick in 2024 or made After the Congress party’s go to prove that Brand Modi
without power. The BJP confused its own cadres tangible achievements, it The results should sensitise deemed to be its traditional 2024 a done deal, for India victory in Karnataka, there is still in force.
in the runup to the polls, but still won eight could capture power in the Opposition parties to strongholds. The is far wider than the three was much talk that the N. Mahadevan,
seats. The southern dreams of the BJP remain dis three States. The results in course correct and forge a encroachment of religion States the party won hands party would come to power Chennai
tant. By upstaging a regional party, the Congress favour of the party are not united fight to try and into politics has changed
has demonstrated a possibility. The Congress has because people rested their change the political picture. the political complexion of Corrections & Clarifications
regional parties as its main opponents in several confidence in the BJP but A.G. Rajmohan, the country and made the In the Business page story titled “Aadhaar put Japan behind tech curve:
States. The results give momentum and confi purely because the Anantapur, Andhra Pradesh ModiShah juggernaut Prof. Jun Murai, ‘father of Internet’ in Japan” (December 3, 2023), there
Opposition could not come unstoppable. The was an erroneous abbreviation. It should have been IISc — not IIT — for
dence to the BJP and Mr. Modi; the Congress and Letters emailed to
the Indian Institute of Science.
Mr. Gandhi must go back to the drawing board together. The interest, the The BJP’s astonishing ‘semifinal’ results will letters@thehindu.
before resuming their long yatra with greater ide motivation and the victories in this round of certainly boost the BJP’s The Readers’ Editor’s office can be contacted by Telephone: co.in must carry the full postal
+914428418297/28576300; Email:[email protected]
ological clarity. confidence that the INDIA Assembly elections in the morale ahead of the general address.
CM M ND-NDE
YK
THE HINDU
Monday, December 4, 2023 7
Delhi
CM M ND-NDE
YK
Delhi www.thehindu.com Monday, December 4, 2023
● ●
Text&Context 0
NEWS IN NUMBERS
Countries committed Amount invested in Decrease in India’s The Mcap of nine of The States won by the
to making their own the debt market by GDP emission intensity top10 most valued BJP in four Assembly
food systems: COP28 FPIs in November between 20052019 firms last week elections
On re-criminalising adultery
What are the grounds on which the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Home Affairs recommended to recriminalise the offence which was revoked from the
Indian Penal Code in 2018? What is the history of the adultery law in India?
L
criminal law Bills set to replace
Standing Committee on Home the Indian Penal Code (IPC),
Affairs, examining the three new Code of Criminal Procedure
criminal law Bills set to replace (CrPC), and the Indian
the Indian Penal Code (IPC), Code of Evidence Act, recommended
Criminal Procedure (CrPC), and the the criminalisation of adultery
Indian Evidence Act, recommended the on genderneutral lines.
criminalisation of adultery on
쑽
genderneutral lines. This comes after a
fivejudge Constitution Bench of the A fivejudge Constitution Bench
Supreme Court unanimously of the Supreme Court led by
decriminalised adultery in 2018 on several then Chief Justice of India (CJI)
grounds including discrimination. The Dipak Misra, and comprising
Committee reasoned that adultery be current CJI D. Y. Chandrachud,
and Justices A. M. Khanwilkar,
criminalised in a genderneutral manner
R. F. Nariman, and Indu
on the ground that it is crucial to
Malhotra, in Joseph Shine
safeguard the sanctity of the institution of versus Union of India (2018),
marriage. Opposition MPs have refuted held that adultery is not a
this claim by underscoring that it is crime and struck it off the IPC.
“outdated to raise marriage to the level of
a sacrament” and that the state has no 쑽
business entering into the private lives of According to senior Advocate
couples. Gopal Sankaranarayanan, the
problem with adultery being in
What has the panel recommended? the IPC was twofold. The first
In its 350page report, the Committee is criminalising it on the basis
ISTOCKPHOTO
He deserted
them at their
hour of need
My colleagues will be coming
shortly. We can start the
presentation then
S. Upendran
Why is Facebookparent Meta suing the same organisation. The two of you are
peers, and therefore, have more or less
the same set of responsibilities within the
U
sually competition regulators Meta misled parents about the Messenger demographic of its users,” noted Meta in unconstitutional authority exercised by and ‘got’. The second syllable is
investigate trade practices, sue Kids app and misrepresented how some its complaint. the FTC through its Commissioners.” pronounced like the word ‘league’. The
corporations, and levy app developers could access private user However, Meta highlighted that it was not word is pronounced ‘KOliig’ with stress
penalties on them. The U.S. data. As part of the latest changes Could the FTC’s proposed changes looking to legally debate the FTC’s on the first syllable.
Federal Trade Commission (FTC) probes proposed by the FTC, Meta would be hurt Meta? findings about its actions and instead
antitrust practices and files lawsuits barred from profiting off the data it In its third quarter report this year, Meta wanted to focus on the constitutionality What is the difference in
against tech companies it sees as violating collected from children (users below 18) recorded revenue of $34.15 billion, which of the regulator’s structural pronunciation between ‘desert’ and
consumer laws. But in a shock move, as well as the data from its virtual reality was an increase of 23% yearoveryear. characteristics. In particular, Meta ‘dessert’? ( J. Nalini, Thanjavur)
Facebookparent Meta in late November products. Meta would also be restricted in However, the company observed that pointed at the FTC’s “dual role as In India, most people do not make a
sued the FTC, claiming the regulator was its use of facial recognition technology, its rising legal and regulatory challenges prosecutor and judge” and said that the distinction between the two words as far
making an “obvious power grab” and that launch of new products and features, and across the European Union and the U.S. social media company had a right to a as the pronunciation is concerned.
its action caused the social media giant would have to provide even more user might affect its future financial results. In jury trial. ‘Desert’ can be used both as a noun and a
“immediate and irreparable” harm. protections, as per the regulator. its report, Meta called out the FTC in verb; the pronunciation of the word
Meta spokesperson Andy Stone shared specific. “Of note, the Federal Trade Has any other tech firm ever sued the changes depending on the function.
What is the case about? a statement on May 3 on X (formerly Commission is seeking to substantially FTC before? When used as a noun, it refers to a place
Meta, the parent of Facebook, Instagram, Twitter), in which he called the FTC’s modify our existing consent order and While other companies have accused the which is full of sand and rocks; where
WhatsApp, and Threads, sued the U.S. action a “political stunt” and claimed the impose additional restrictions on our FTC of overstepping its boundaries, there is little or no water. In this case, the
FTC on November 29 in an effort to stop it regulator did not allow Meta to discuss ability to operate. We are contesting this Meta’s act of suing the FTC is an first vowel is pronounced like the ‘e’ in
from reopening a past privacy settlement the agreement. “Let’s be clear about what matter, but if we are unsuccessful it would aggressive move that came after a federal ‘set’, ‘bet’ and ‘pet’; the following ‘s’
where the social media company was the FTC is trying to do: usurp the have an adverse impact on our business,” judge allowed the FTC’s proceeding to sounds like the ‘z’ in ‘zip’, ‘zero’ and ‘zoo’.
ordered to pay $5 billion to settle charges authority of Congress to set industrywide said the company on October 25. The FTC take place. The ‘e’ in the second syllable sounds like
for violating an older FTC order. The standards and instead single out one is yet to publicly respond to Meta’s latest If Meta is successful, even in part, this the ‘a’ in ‘China’. One simple way of
privacy settlement, which was made in American company while allowing complaint or issue a formal statement. could set a precedent for other pronouncing the word is ‘DEZert’ with
2019, enforced broad privacy restrictions Chinese companies, like TikTok, to companies singled out by the regulator to the stress on the first syllable. When used
on Meta. The $5 billion penalty against operate without constraint on American Why does Meta claim the FTC does question the FTC’s ability to carry out as a verb, the vowel in the first syllable
Facebook was first announced in 2019 but soil,” said part of Stone’s statement, as he not have authority over the issue? unbiased proceedings and instead push sounds like the ‘i’ in ‘bit’, ‘kit’ and ‘hit’,
is referred to as the 2020 privacy promised Meta would “vigorously fight” Meta claimed that the FTC’s proposed for their case to be handled by jury trials. while the ‘ert’ in the second, rhymes with
settlement. The FTC described it as “the the action. changes to the 2020 agreement violate In turn, such a shift could obstruct not the ‘irt’ in ‘shirt’, ‘skirt’ and ‘dirt’. In this
largest ever imposed on any company for In its November complaint against the due process and that the regulator itself only the FTC, but also regulators such as case, the word is pronounced ‘diZERT’
violating consumers’ privacy.” FTC, Meta stressed that stopping the plays an “unconstitutional dual role.” The the U.S. Securities and Exchange with the stress on the second syllable.
collection of children’s data would hurt its company also believes that the FTC’s Commission (SEC) and prevent them When you ‘desert’ someone, you
What are the new changes the FTC development. “By way of example, the conditions would affect its ability to from carrying out swift enforcement abandon them; you leave them without
wants Meta to make? Proposed Order purports to limit Meta’s launch new products and services actions against Big Tech companies in the informing them, never to return.
The FTC, in May, proposed changes to the collection and use of the data of socalled (without thirdparty approval), and would future. Hema had tanned considerably after
spending a couple of hours in the desert.
Harish did not intend to desert his
friends in their time of need.
As for the sweet dish that we
Please send in your answers to
THE DAILY QUIZ [email protected]
sometimes have after a meal (dessert), it
is pronounced like the verb form of
‘desert’. It is pronounced ‘diZERT’ with
Today is the 225th death anniversary of the Italian physicist and philosopher the stress on the second syllable.
[email protected]
businessline.
MONDAY DECEMBER 4 2023
LINE &
LENGTH.
MONDAY DECEMBER 4, 2023
TCA SRINIVASA RAGHAVAN
Saffron tide
I
n the last 24 months India has
conducted 16 State assembly
elections. In five months from
now it will conduct a general
Strong organisation, astute strategy work for BJP election. That is, a
billionandahalf votes being cast in
lection results for the four State Assemblies
E
two years. It’s almost as if the Board
in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh of Control for Cricket in India
(BCCI) has drawn up the schedule —
and Telangana on Sunday are reflective of one damn match after the other.
the ruling BJP’s complete domination of the Hindi In almost all of these elections we
heartland and ability to defeat the Congress in a can see one thing clearly: the margins
of loss or victory are such that just a
straight fight. After Karnataka, the Congress’s few thousand votes in an assembly
expansion in the neighbouring Telangana is the only constituency can make a big
facesaver for the Opposition in these polls, touted as difference. In general, the differences
in party vote shares are also
the semifinals for the 2024 general elections. shrinking.
Lok Sabha elections since 2014
The BJP has put up a particularly have been different where even the COSTLY EXERCISE. As a result of intense preelection competitive bidding, the costs for all parties have gone up several times GIRI KVS
impressive show. It would help the party combined vote shares of the
showcase the inevitability of its victory under nonCongress opposition is less than
Cournot competition
Shivraj Singh Chouhan has led the party to naked eye, is the increasing power of
victory for the fifth time. Together with what could be called ‘vote
contractors’. These have always been
Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh, the heartland there but only for very large groups.
States of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Now the increase in population
Chhattisgarh account for 171 Lok Sabha seats means that the number of small
where the BJP’s organisational strength is contractors has grown because each POWER GAMES. Victory margins in Indian elections are shrinking, thanks to the rise
tiny caste sliver has a lot more votes.
now complimented by its control over the If you speak to the more analytical of small ‘vote contractors’ for caste votes, who shave off margins
respective State governments. The BJP politicians they will tell you that
juggernaut under Modi has discovered a new these are nearly entirely based on leaders also have it. They have to You can see this happening in Straits song, it’s freebie for freebie
momentum, while the Opposition flounders caste, in fact, jatis. If earlier we had cater, shall we say, to a much wider politics, too. The freebie thing is just and religion for free.
broad varna contracts, now we have range of appetites for favours and a manifestation of this. In a sense it’s So how does the model resolve
in the absence of strategy or strong leadership. sliced and diced jati contracts with a payouts. The consequent balancing a simple auction. itself? Basically, in a duopoly, the
Rahul Gandhi’s pet issues — caste census and contractor who negotiates. has also narrowed the margins. firms have nearly equal market
corporate corruption — have failed to cut any It’s these smaller contractors who So for the foreseeable future COURNOT COMPETITION shares, corresponding to vote shares
ice. shave the margins. And because of Indian politics is facing a highly Economics analysed this kind of between the dominant party and the
The Congress has failed to match BJP’s that, they have become extremely segmented market. It’s like the competition between firms long ago. rest. A twoparty State tends to
powerful. Their bargaining power is market for, say, soaps. You can have The French economist Augustin perform better economically than a
pivotal strengths — a formidable now immense. 100 brands differentiated by small Cournot discussed it all the way back three or more party one.
organisation, strong leadership and astute In other words, earlier there was differences in price, smell and in 1837. It’s called the Cournot model Although this outcome looks bad,
strategy. Its leadership in Kamal Nath and factionalism in parties. Now there is packaging. of competition. in terms of representation this is an
Ashok Gehlot in Madhya Pradesh and factionalism within castes, a kind of In each segment there are enough The model analyses market excellent one for the country. This is
economy class and premium buyers now to make it worthwhile for conditions in which there is more particularly true because we have
Rajasthan, respectively, appeared tired and economy on planes, if you like. producers to incur the extra costs of than one firm (or political parties). now put off delineation for another
exhausted, compared to the energy that the This development of the last ten marketing and advertising. And All of them are producing the same decade.
BJP infused by fielding fresh candidates and as years has, in a sense, ‘deepened’ our discounting is the name of the game. thing. And, of course, they never As a result there is just one MP for
many 18 MPs and Union Ministers in the three democracy. That’s a good thing. cooperate. many multiples of the numbers of
northern States. In Rajasthan, the infighting Smaller groups now have some Earlier there was They all have some influence on people that are there now in a
power. market price which means it’s not a constituency as compared to when it
between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot But, simultaneously, as a result of factionalism in parties. flat price line they face, which would was first established. If an MP
coupled with the Chief Minister’s refusal to intense preelection competitive Now there is factionalism be the case if there was a very large represented 100 people in 1980, he or
replace unpopular MLAs with fresh faces cost bidding, the costs for all parties have number of producers. she now represents maybe
gone up several times. This is not just within castes, a kind of Also, all firms compete on 8,00010,000.
the party. The BJP bagged 41.69 per cent of the
vote share as compared to the Congress’ 39.53
the financial cost of buying support economy class and quantities, not prices. Most The slicing and dicing of castes
but also postelection benefaction. premium economy on importantly, they base their policies goes some way in fixing this problem.
per cent (while votes were still being counted Nor is it just the parties who have a on their competitors’ output Maybe caste politics is not such a bad
for all States). The Congress was unable to problem. Their main candidates and planes, if you like. decisions. That is, to modify the Dire thing after all.
rein in Gehlot or Kamal Nath who ran the
campaign on their own terms and fielded their
favourites. The BJP did not hesitate in
experimenting with new faces in Madhya
Pradesh. It ended with a whopping 48.56 per
cent of the vote share, as opposed to Congress’
Growth surprise points to status quo on repo rate
40.42 per cent. In Chhattisgarh, coupled with
the infighting between Chief Minister Though the domestic economy is on a stronger footing, inflation needs to sustain at 4 per cent for interest rates to be cut
Bhupesh Baghel and his deputy TS Singh Deo,
corruption charges against the government currency of ₹2,000 was neutralised by inflationgrowth dynamics, the lingering
K Srinivasa Rao introducing an ICRR of 10 per cent El Nino impact on the farm sector could
undermined its popularity. The BJP’s temporarily, that is now withdrawn. be a cause of concern. The continued
pushback n the tribal State was impressive
T
he Reserve Bank of India had The liquidity deficit — the amount of elevated lending rates and moderated
with the party winning 46.30 per cent of the hinted at the likely upside funds banks need to borrow from the credit growth at 15.3 per cent in October
votes, against Congress’ 42.22 per cent. surprise in GDP growth data. interbank market or the central bank — as against 18.3 per cent in the previous
Accordingly, breaching all estimates, stood at ₹1.74lakh crore on November year may impact the growth in the
The only consolation from the Congress GDP clocked 7.6 per cent in Q2 FY24, 28, with weighted average call rates medium term. Of this, flow of bank
came from Telangana where it overcame the against the RBI estimate of 6.5 per cent. (WACR) hovering beyond repo rates credit continues to be sluggish at 5.4 per
ruling Bharat Rashtra Samiti by bagging 39.37 The GVA is at 7.4 per cent. The backdrop and sometimes even breaching the MSF cent which may disrupt the revival of the
per cent of the votes compared to 37.37 per of 7.8 per cent GDP growth posted in Q1 rate of 6.75 per cent. Thus, the stance of manufacturing sector that had shown a
affirms the likelihood of growth the monetary policy to remain focused resurgence in Q2.
cent for the latter. The campaign was breaching the targeted level of 6.5 per on the withdrawal of accommodation ECONOMY. On the growth track The economy growing even at 6.5 per
orchestrated by the newlyappointed AICC cent set for FY24. Global think tanks are was scrupulously implemented. cent during FY24 is set to breach the
member Sunil Kanugolu who turned the unanimous that India continues to 10year average of 5.9 per cent growth.
latent antiincumbency into a wave. But the remain the fastestgrowing major GLOBAL HEADWINDS Recent OPEC+ deliberations to cut oil Inflation is well under control with the
Opposition must iron out its leadership and economy. The CPI inflation at 4.87 per The recent statements of the US Federal output may not significantly hike crude inflation targeting framework, amid
cent in October is well on its way to Reserve reinstated its commitment to prices which have come down to $82.50 moderate global headwinds. The
strategy issues if it is to do better next year. eventually hit the 4 per cent mark. The stay focused on chasing its inflation per barrel on November 28, down from situation warrants a status quo in
WPI continues to be in negative target of 2 per cent (3.2 per cent in $94.30 in September. It is quite possible interest rate in the monetary policy
territory for the seventh consecutive October) by keeping rates at present that the IsraelHamas conflict may not review in December while a cut in
month in October. levels. The annual inflation of the UK escalate further to exacerbate the interest rates will have to wait till the
FROM THE VIEWSROOM. Further, the RBI has been consistently
working to align system liquidity to
sharply dropped to 4.6 per cent in
October, down from 6.7 per cent in
geopolitical risks. Despite an added dose
of sanctions against Russia, its armed
inflation remains at 4 per cent on a
durable basis.
ensure financial stability, ensure growth, September. Similarly, the Euro Zone conflict with Ukraine may not get Of course, the fineprint in the
and tame inflation. The liquidity inflation slipped more than expected to resolved too soon but its collateral regulatory dispensation of the RBI can
Climate promises must be kept overhang was absorbed and a standing 2.4 per cent in November. The growing damage may not increase risks to Indian always surprise the market players. But
deposit facility (SDF) was introduced in consensus that the rate hikes reached a growth trajectory. the writing on the wall about monetary
V Nivedita climate change. Even today, the April 2022. Variable Rate Reverse Repo peak sent positive headwinds to global policy action is discernible.
US, the UK and the EU are (VRRR) auctions and Variable Rate Repo stock markets. However, the global CHALLENGES AHEAD
considered to be responsible for (VRR) tools were judiciously used to interest rates will ostensibly stay Though the domestic economy is on a The writer is an Adjunct Professor at the Institute of
T
he 28th Conference of 50 per cent of all emissions. The balance liquidity. The impact of excess elevated until inflation is brought within stronger footing and global headwinds Insurance and Risk Management, Hyderabad. Views are
Parties (COP28) to the UN number only increases when you liquidity arising from the withdrawal of target. are not too threatening as to upset personal
Framework Convention on add Russia, Canada, Japan, and
Climate Change is well underway Australia into the mix.
in Dubai. Political leaders, So far, none of these countries
academicians, indigenous people has made significant progress in BELOW THE LINE
and experts from all parts have reducing their carbon emissions
come together to discuss ways to or funding lesser developed to elaborate planning and execution well! Missed the mark”. Minister Narendra Modi at the Authority (APEDA) has invited
tackle climate change. countries to do so. A combination by State intelligence officials, but In yesterday’s tweet, he posted a COP28 in Dubai, has sent ripples applications for the post of director
On the agenda is implementing of a lack of political will, domestic many political observers wonder photo to reassure his cadre that the through the political and diplomatic in the Basmati Export Development
the decisions made since the politics and economic slowdown whether the CM was fully apprised party was not going to lose and that circles. The post, captioned “good Foundation (BEDF), raising
COP21 (in 2015), when the Paris will certainly not help. of the consequences of this open it was going to form the government friends at COP28” and hashtagged eyebrows among those involved in
Climate Accord was signed. So, Developing countries will have dare to the Centre. While some for a third time. “Hatrick loading #Melodi — a charming blend of the fragrant rice trade. A little bird
operationalising the Loss and to bear the costs of climate claim that the State officials 3.0.” However, the writing on the Meloni and Modi — has been an wonders if the move is to help a
Damage Fund and the Global change. Maybe the solution for overplayed their hand, others have wall was clear ever since the eyecatcher. This isn’t the first time particular individual who just retired,
Stocktake will take priority. The these countries lies in coming gone so far to dub the entire counting began in the morning. In Meloni and Modi have displayed a as the criteria and scope of work
Loss and Damage Fund is together and helping each other episode an unauthorised “rogue” another tweet, he thanked the unique camaraderie. Recall the G20 seem to be tailormade for that
supposed to help vulnerable overcome the illeffects. The operation. But what looks certain is voters for giving them two chances. summit in New Delhi earlier this person.
countries cope with the losses International Solar Alliance could A battle royal that the ED is unlikely to let this “Not saddened over the result today, year, where the two leaders However, setting aside the
caused by climate change. In the be a model to help transition to The arrest of an ED official by embarrassment go unavenged. but surely disappointed as it was not displayed remarkable rapport. In the allegations, those in the trade say
Global Stocktake, countries and greener fuels. But it is also equally sleuths of TN's Directorate of Gracious in defeat in expected lines for us,” he said, complex tapestry of international the Centre should look at someone
other stakeholders will measure important to remember that Vigilance and AntiCorruption Not many politicians accept defeat while congratulating the Congress relations, where every gesture is who can handle supply chain issues
their progress in meeting their countries have to do more than (DVAC) on extortion charges has with grace. With a defeat in the party for their victory. scrutinised, the MeloniModi selfie is rather than export. Issues such as
targets. that just switching to green fuels added a new dimension to the offing, Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) #Melodi moment a masterstroke. traceability, water scarcity in
Any agreement from the world — they need to make plans to already troubled relationship Working President KT Rama Rao has In a world where diplomacy often Later, Modi reposted Meloni’s post Haryana and Punjab growing areas,
leaders will be historic. But only effectively fight pollution, and between the ruling DMK and the not only accepted the defeat unfolds in the corridors of power, it’s and wrote “Meeting friends is always pesticide residue and increasing
time will tell if it will be invest in climate change resistant powersthatbe in Delhi. The manner gracefully but has taken it sportingly. refreshing to see it play out in the a delight”! yield need to be attended to
implemented. Historically, the agricultural practices. Sustainable in which the “trap” was set, the Retweeting a tweet that he posted digital arena. The recent post on ‘X’ Raising eyebrows immediately. It’s anyone’s guess if
developed countries have not living should all be a part of the arrest and the subsequent search of (an image he was seen targeting with by Giorgia Meloni, Italy's Prime The Agricultural and Processed APEDA and the Commerce Ministry
taken responsibility for causing mainstream discourse. the ED premises in Madurai all point a pistol), he said: “This has not aged Minister, featuring a selfie with Prime Food Products Export Development will look into this. — Our Bureaus
Published by Nirmala Lakshman and Printed by S. Ramanujam at HT Media Ltd. Plot No. 8, Udyog Vihar, Greater Noida Distt. Gautam Budh Nagar, U.P. 201306, on behalf of THG PUBLISHING PVT LTD., Chennai600002. Editor: Raghuvir Srinivasan (Editor responsible for selection of news under the PRB Act). ISSN 0971 7528
CM
YK . . . . . . . . NDNDE
>
OPINION 9
STAY INFORMED THROUGH THE DAY @ WWW.BUSINESS-STANDARD.COM
Comfortably placed petition in the network effects era have not yet been
updated in competition policy legislation anywhere
BJP’s prospects are growing stronger in the world.
I
f the results of the latest Assembly elections can be considered the “semi- But wait, there is a quiet revolution on the way in
final” for 2024, it is possible to conclude that the Bharatiya Janata Party the music industry, for example, and is worth a close
study because these techniques may spread through
(BJP) is a shoo-in for 2024. The ruling party has delivered a hat-trick in the
other parts of the economy, and this is called the
Hindi heartland with the Congress winning a consolation prize in Telangana. “creator economy”. Two technologies underpin this
In the big picture, the results so far (counting for Mizoram will take place on movement: Non-fungible tokens (NFT) and
Monday) confirm the great political divide at the Vindhyas in terms of the ruling blockchain. While an NFT can be linked to any media,
party’s popularity, especially after the Congress won in Karnataka in May. The what’s typically associated as the “content” of an
results also suggest that grand plans for Opposition unity ahead of 2024 are mean- NFT is something that can point to images, videos,
ingless, since the leading national party in the INDIA alliance, the Congress, has music, or other forms of content. This NFT is then
stored on blockchain. The NFT embedded in a song
conspicuously failed to hold on to its gains. It has, in fact, done much worse every-
or a photograph or a text article makes the ownership
where except Telangana, where it rode an anti-incumbency wave. The BJP’s per-
creator economy
Congress victories in the three Hindi belt states, the BJP has managed to score single person or group has control; instead, all users
collectively retain control.
significant gains in seats and vote share in Madhya Pradesh. It returned to power
Using an NFT and blockchain, more idealistic
in this state in 2020 not through the ballot box but after former Congress leader entrepreneurs can and should help usher in the cre-
Jyotiraditya Scindia orchestrated a revolt that sent 22 Congress MLAs to the BJP ator economy: The economic system that will emerge
camp. For all that, incumbent Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan pulled off a allows “creators” leveraging digital platforms to pro-
remarkable defence, though he does not have a significantly better track record
in economic management than the incumbent chief ministers of Rajasthan and
…current industry models will soon fade out duce and distribute their own content, products, or
services. The creator economy fosters direct rela-
Chhattisgarh. Infighting between Ashok Gehlot and chief ministerial contender tionships between creators and their audience. A
“S
ir, can I have a word with you,” asked the mates that even in the year 2000, 49 million cas- second aspect is that it democratises creativity: The
Sachin Pilot helped the Congress score an own goal in Rajasthan. In Rajasthan
man in security-guard uniform at the settes, a third of it pirated, were being sold every barriers to entry will be lowered significantly, allowing
and Madhya Pradesh, the Congress may rue the reliance on the old guard in entrance gate of the public park, where I go month in India), must have given way to streaming individuals to become creators with minimal upfront
preference to ambitious younger politicians. But the real shock for the Grand for my daily one-hour walk, near my home in Mumbai. music on the internet. Then came a shock for me: costs. This democratisation will lead to a more diverse
Old Party came in Chhattisgarh, where the BJP has registered its best ever per- I was puzzled. Was I carrying some forbidden At present, according to a report, one million music range of voices and content, challenging traditional
formance in terms of seats and vote share to rout its national rival. object that the security guard wanted to notify me streams were played every three minutes in India, media structures. A third aspect is creative indepen-
It is also possible to conclude that welfarism may be a necessary but not suffi- about? Or was there a timing change and I, with my totalling 480 million streams per day. The statistics dence: Creators will then have the autonomy to pro-
cient condition to win elections. In Telangana, for instance, K Chandrasekhar Rao’s nasty habit of being too early for all meetings (more site Statista says this amounted to annual revenue duce content that aligns with their vision and values.
party Bharat Rashtra Samithi could not hold on to power despite his signature about that later), have come too early of $900 million. Unfortunately, just All this will lead to the attraction of new audiences
for the park timings? Or, is this park, as in the old-economy days, even in seeking authentic and niche content that may not
Rythu Bandhu scheme for farmers. Prime Minister Narendra Modi sparked a which is open to all with a nominal the internet era, less than a half a be readily available in traditional media.
national debate after he mocked Mr Gehlot’s “revdi” (freebie) culture following ~100 per year fee, about to raise its dozen companies dominate the And, by the way, my acquaintance, the security
serial announcements of free amenities for poor people in the state. But in Madhya fees and it has asked the security Indian streaming market. And even guard’s creative son, will stand a reasonable chance
Pradesh, Mr Chouhan was no slouch in rolling out the free or subsidised red carpet guards to notify all? more unfortunately, their current of finding a market for his creative talents.
for the poor in much the same way. One difference, perhaps, is that the BJP’s hard “Sure, go ahead and tell me what business models land them in More importantly, this creator-economy model
Hindutva may have had greater resonance in the northern states to the Opposition’s you have in mind,” I told the guard. equally astronomical losses. can extend far beyond the media. It can be used for
emollient attempts at soft Hindutva. In a sense, the latest results in the Hindi belt “My son is a gifted creator of I cannot stop myself from won- all kinds of services: Financial, legal, medical,
music, and he is looking for a way dering whatever happened to our educational, technical, and others. But ushering in
states show that the BJP has consolidated its position after the 2019 Lok Sabha
to earn a living from that… I want dream that the World Wide Web the creator economy will require adequate legislative
elections, when it comprehensively won in all three Congress-ruled states. These your advice on how he can make a AJIT BALAKRISHNAN would democratise the sharing of innovation as well.
elections have been a test for Mr Modi, who remained the face of the campaigns in business out of that,” he said. information. It was supposed to give Maybe it is time to remember a recent point made
all three states. For the umpteenth time in the past nine years, the Congress has I hid my positive surprise that a each individual the power to share by Tim Berners Lee, the creator of the World Wide
failed to present itself as a convincing alternative to this BJP formula. security guard should have a son who aspires to be his ideas and thoughts or do transactions… Web: “It’s understandable that many people feel
a music creator… but told him to give me a day to how come it is getting dominated by a half a dozen afraid and unsure if the web is really a force for good.
think about it and get back to him. Nowadays, or so goliaths? But given how much the web has changed in the
Scale and ambition though I listen to music when I do my daily one- One of the reasons for this dominance is that
hour walk I really hadn’t kept in touch with the economic policymakers in India and elsewhere have
music industry, so I had to do some research before not yet paid enough attention to a key aspect of the
past 30 years, it would be defeatist and unimagina-
tive to assume that the web as we know it can’t be
changed for the better in the next 30. If we give up
Loss and damage fund may prove underwhelming offering advice to a young aspirant. internet and the Web: The force of network effects, on building a better web now, then the web will not
T
I could intuitively see that the cassette tapes, which quickly leads to industry dominance by half have failed us. We will have failed the web.”
he first major guest at the 28th edition of the Conference of Parties to which dominated the Indian music industry through a dozen players that have the finances to subsidise
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or my college years and till recently (Wikipedia esti- a part of the network. Methods for regulating com- Thewriter([email protected])isaninternetentrepreneur
COP28, was Prime Minister Narendra Modi. President Joe Biden of
the United States is not attending, but various other world leaders,
L
linked in fact to interim work — which is nonetheless essential thereby. A “global ast week I was chatting with a retired banker Imagine the enormous implications of these and is attracted to the stock markets. A combination
stocktake” will have to be approved to examine how countries are moving along who has his savings invested largely in stocks. numbers. Compulsory dematerialisation was intro- of economic growth, larger household and corporate
the pathways to their intended nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that Like many thoughtful people hoping to see a duced in 1996. Over the next 24 years, the number surpluses, and a new attitude to risk-taking by
they agreed to at the Paris COP in 2015. Depending on the progress on NDCs, just and equitable society he was concerned about of demat accounts went up to 40 million. Then, in investors makes for a long-term bull market.
“what’s going on in the country”. He wants a change just three and a half years, that jumped by more Interestingly, while GDP growth of 7.6 per cent in
and on what climate science reveals about current and future impacts on
for the better. Then, he hastened to add with a tinge than 3.25 times to 130 million. This means that 90 the second quarter is being celebrated, sales growth
emissions, it is expected that additional commitments may have to be made. of alarm, “Of course if (Narendra) Modi does not million new investors, 2.25 times the total demat for the Nifty500 companies was just 3.5 per cent.
One major announcement that has emerged out of COP28 already is the come back to power, I am sure 20 per cent of my population developed over 24 years, have entered According to our research, the current euphoria
launch of a fund for the “loss and damage” caused by climate change. This portfolio will be wiped out.” The Indian stock mar- the market in the past three years or so. They have over smallcap stocks and IPOs leaves no room for
answers a long-standing demand from vulnerable, smaller, and poorer countries. kets are carrying what can be called a Modi premi- only known a bull market, one that has constantly error; most small companies are now being quoted
The plan is for this fund to be given almost half a billion US dollars to spend. But um. Last Friday, the markets jumped to an all-time climbed over a wall of worries such as a pandemic, at their historically peak valuations. Valuations
the US’ own commitment will be negligible — perhaps $17.5 million. Most will high on the news of a higher growth rate of gross high inflation, high oil prices, and global disruption matter for future returns. Returns are low when
domestic product (GDP) and several including the Russia-Ukraine war, valuations are high.
come from the European Union, which has demonstrated far more commitment
opinion polls favouring a return of high US interest rates, the Israel- Then there is the Modi premium. To put it differ-
to the cause of climate action and to equity than the US. The US’ inability to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to Hamas war, and a global slowdown ently, some attribute our economic growth and the
spend taxpayer money on any major climate-related issues and the uncertainty power in Madhya Pradesh and a in trade. Not only have these consequent bull market entirely to him. While our
attached to its political transition in 2024 severely limit what can and cannot be close contest in Rajasthan. Our 90 million newbie investors never banker friend is worried about “compromised courts,
done at the multilateral level. The loss and damage fund itself may prove under- retired banker is not alone in faced a crushing bear market, they one-sided media coverage, rising intolerance, lies
whelming eventually. The problem essentially is that it is hard to quantify such acknowledging the Modi premium. have no memory or understanding spread through social media and the brutal state pow-
loss and damage and that deciding between various alternative allocations of In the absence of a clear alternative of economic and market cycles. Most er unleashed on the selected few” and would like this
leader, the same thought would per- are young investors, who view mar- to change, it will be possible only with a regime
this money may turn out to be a political and procedural nightmare.
haps dominate the minds of mil- ket dips as buying opportunities. change. But will a new regime deliver higher economic
The broader question of climate finance, however, is likely to dominate dis- lions of people, whether or not they They have no idea that periodically, growth? There is no such indication, because most
cussions in the remaining days of this COP. Mr Modi, when making India’s net
zero commitment for 2070 at the Glasgow COP two years ago, was quite clear
support the current regime.
Over the past few years, tens of
IRRATIONAL CHOICE sometimes for many years at a
stretch, the main stock market
Opposition leaders never talk about economics or
policy, it is only about subsidies. We have forgotten
that any such commitment could be conditional only on the availability of tech- millions of new investors have DEBASHIS BASU indices give you almost no returns. that the United Progressive Alliance was voted out
nology and finance. Financial flows have, however, not been scaled up sufficiently. entered the capital market. In During such times, smallcap stocks, because of policy paralysis and corruption. We don’t
Driven by activists’ concerns, in fact, financing mitigation — the reduction of September alone more than three which are the main beneficiaries of know if the ordinary voter who has not seen the same
emission — has also taken the back seat in political energy to financing the million new demat accounts were opened, the same thecurrentbullmarket,cangetdecimated.Remember, benefits as investors will think like our banker friend.
number as in August. Cumulatively, India has more from January 2018 to August 2019 — under the same And then there is also another possibility: Economic
adaptation to climate change or to loss and damage. However, it is necessary than 130 million demat accounts now, with two-three Modi regime — the Nifty smallcap index was down growth, which we are taking for granted, slows for a
that the primary issue for COP remain the scaling up of finance, especially private million accounts added every month. This wildfire 40 per cent. It can happen again. completely different set of local or global factors and
finance, into activities that ensure that emission does not increase. In this context, growth has been a result of a fortuitous set of factors Such dips and crests used to happen fairly regu- the Modi premium vanishes. After all, there was no
at least one major move has been the host nation’s commitment of a $30 billion such as the ease of opening accounts, record-breaking larly in the past, but the general assumption today is growth worth talking about between 2014 and 2020.
climate fund that will focus on mobilising seven to eight times that amount in initial public offerings (IPOs), aggressive account that India has changed fundamentally. We are on an The next few days may give us some clues on the
private finance in the next decades. The Prime Minister has offered to host acquisition campaigns by brokerage firms, impact uninterrupted growth track, fuelled by higher gov- minds of voters in several key states. It could cause
COP33 five years from now, in 2028. By that time the Indian leadership in this of social media, and the extremely strong perfor- ernment revenues, which are funding investment in investors to recalibrate their expectations or cause
mance of small and mid-cap stocks over the past urban infrastructure, railway modernisation, and a indices to surge even higher.
field — especially in the raising and efficient disbursement of climate finance
three years. As a result, the total demat accounts in large defence budget that is helping local companies
— should have been made apparent. India jumped from 40 million at the end of FY20 due to the indigenisation of defence production. On The writer is editor of www.moneylife.in and a trustee of the
to 130 million at present. the other side, the youth has more money to invest, Moneylife Foundation; @Moneylifers
Toxins in moderation
poison that we drink in pumpkin spice molecular traces of adaptations that Despitethegranularapproach,the
lattes blocks adenosine receptors — result from interactions between book’sconcernsareuniversal.“Twoof
adenosine being a brain-produced species. He is based at the University of theunintendedconsequencesofthe
neurotransmitter that would otherwise California, Berkeley, where he is obsessionandneedfornaturaltoxinsare
mean the destruction of the liver — not coffee bean, a red pepper flake, a poppy encourage you to rest. Why does professor of integrative biology and theglobalbiodiversitycrisisandthe
to mention lives. Alcohol’s paradox, capsule, a Penicillium mold, a foxglove caffeine do this? Whiteman points to molecular and cell biology. globalclimatecrisis,”Whitemanwrites
Whiteman writes, is tied to ethanol’s leaf, a magic mushroom, a marijuana honeybees, which, in dark hives, share Most Delicious Poison is most insummation.“Thesetwinproblems
ability to mimic (or possibly bind to) bud, a nutmeg seed or a brewer’s yeast directions in what the neuroethologist delicious for its scope: from birds’ threatennotonlyoursurvivalasaspecies
gamma-aminobutyric acid — that is, cell, and we find a bevy of poisons,” Karl von Frisch described in the 1970s as judicious digestion of toxic butterflies to butalsothatofthebiosphereitself.”
the neurotransmitter our brains use to Whiteman writes. something like GPS translated with the repugnance of rats to the smell of Big Pharma’s relationship to
BOOK REVIEW soften the nervous system’s activity. Caffeine is another natural wonder gyrations. Plants that have evolved to death — rats bury dead rats, in captivity. indigenous knowledge is a recurring
Translating to human terms, best approached with caution. synthesise caffeine, We see the motif. “Indigenous healers have
ROBERT SULLIVAN Whiteman explains, “Drinking relieved “Caffeine and the human mind,” says goes one theory, MOST DELICIOUS pathways that yielded nearly 50 percent of all modern
my father of serious nerve pain he Whiteman, can seem like a match made might offer it to POISON: The Story relate the piperine drugs we use today,” writes Whiteman.
W
of Nature’s Toxins —
hat doesn’t kill you might suffered from a motorcycle accident in heaven. “Taken in the appropriate their pollinators,
From Spices to Vices in black pepper to Western medicine, in his telling, is still
make you stronger. When it before I was born.” Alcohol addiction doses, caffeine not only feels life-giving theoretically Demerol and playing catch-up, even as this same
comes to nature’s toxins, they ultimately killed Whiteman’s father, an but is: Drink a few cups a day and you rendering the bees Author: Noah opioids, and society devours the lands that are the
might even save your life (or at least amateur naturalist who taught his son to won’t live forever but a little longer.” more flight aware
Whiteman Whiteman tells us last strongholds of the very
blunt the sting of its finality). The dis- take comfort in the natural world while Whiteman sorts through data and thus more Publisher: Little, that the biodiversity that heals.
tinction, as the evolutionary biologist fighting off the pain in his own life. suggesting as much, though, productive. Brown/Spark Alpha pinene that But ultimately, however important
Noah Whiteman explores in Most AttheheartofMostDeliciousPoison is anecdotally, on a fall morning in the Or did plants Pages: 296 makes balsam fir his larger conclusions, Whiteman’s
Delicious Poison, is all in the dosage. anevolutionaryoxymoronthatsustains dark, it sure feels true. first develop this Price: $30 smell lovely for project is a personal one. In its
Take alcohol. Ethanol is likely born lifeasweknowit:Poisons—indesertsor But caffeine can be deadly. In wondrous forest bathers once exploration of the brain’s mesolimbic
of plants’ evolutionary search for rainforests,atthecornerbarorinyour October of this year, the parents of a crystalline killed a man reward system that taunted his father,
protection. Long before the first happy fridge—threatenlifewhileoffering University of Pennsylvania student compound as a potent insecticide? Did delivering a tanker of it when, without a the book serves as a love letter to a man
hour, yeast’s alcohol-making evolved as possibilitiesforpersistence,andthe with a congenital heart condition sued its presence in the coffee plant signal respirator, he cleaned out the inside whose addictions made him a
a means for the fungi residing in rotting pleasuresthatwetakefromsubstances Panera Bread over their “Charged stress, as do the salicylic acids that close of his truck. poisonous parent during what
fruit to survive oxygen deprivation. thatwouldotherwisebedeadly,hintat Lemonade,” on the grounds that a a plant’s pores, shutting the gate on You don’t need a degree in Whitehead calls a “long struggle with
Ethanol thwarts most microbes; but thewayslifeonearthmanagestothrive substance containing three Red Bulls’ microbial invasion? neurophysiology to enjoy the book — nature’s toxins.”
yeast thrives, burning energy from inalandscapeoftoxins.Andinthe worth of caffeine should have been Whiteman’s fieldwork has taken him though I imagine it would add to the
sugar in oxygen’s absence. author’scase,thequestionclearlyhas marketed as an energy drink, to the Galápagos, where he studied the experience, which can at times The reviewer is the author of seven books,
The same ethanol that might jump- personalmeaning. potentially saving their daughter’s life. DNA of lice on hawks; to Colorado, feel like a riveting lecture by a including The Meadowlands
start a party can, through addiction, “Scratch beneath the surface of a And yet used in moderation, the where today he looks for the genetic and passionate professor. ©2023 The New York Times News Service
14 NEW DELHI
MONDAY
DECEMBER 04, 2023
Opinion
{ OUR TAKE }
E STA B L I S H E D I N 1 9 24
Modi, the provider,
Poll boost for and women labharthi
BJP weakens The BJP’s sweeping wins
in the Hindi belt are
ers. However, data and field observa- culty, but also the importance, of
tions show the exact opposite phe- capturing the sentiments of female
nomenon. voters properly. The women’s vote,
A T
0-3 verdict in three Hindi heartland states in he Bharatiya Janata Party percentage points. In short, Behna scheme, what Axis poll, although it significantly Tamil Nadu, which have long ago
2018 didn’t really mean anything for the 2019 (BJP) has scored a com- the scale of the BJP victory explains a tilt among women underestimated the popularity of the developed their unique models of
prehensive victory in the in MP was enhanced by the voters in Rajasthan towards BJP. This popularity of PM Modi in delivery of benefits, the BJP and
national election, so is there anything to suggest three Hindi belt states — backing it received from the BJP? After all, incum- the Hindi belt, particularly among Modi have redefined the delivery of
a 3-0 verdict in 2023 means something for Chhattisgarh, Madhya female voters. Some of this bent Congress chief minister women, makes the BJP a formidable benefits through cash transfers and
2024? Perhaps. Or perhaps not. But the results of the Pradesh, and Rajasthan — is attributable to the popu- Ashok Gehlot ran popular party in any state election in the branded them in the image of the
that went to the polls in November, larity of the Ladli Behna Neelanjan welfare schemes and also region — and impenetrable in PM. This, more than anything,
four state elections — Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and even outperforming some of the scheme, a direct cash trans- targeted female voters. national elections. explains why a poll plank of welfar-
Sircar
Madhya Pradesh, in the heartland, and Telangana in the most optimistic exit polls. It is no fer to women in the 23-60 First, unlike Nitish Kumar In office, PM Modi has focused on ism has been so effective against the
South — do set the context for next year’s national secret that the BJP has built a solid age group implemented by or Mamata Banerjee, the welfarism, creating the “labharthi” BJP outside of the Hindi belt and so
base of support in these states: The the incumbent chief minis- Congress has not shown a (beneficiary) voter. Much of this wel- ineffective within it. Unfortunately
election (counting in Mizoram, which also went to polls, party won 62 out of the 65 Lok Sabha ter, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, that long-term commitment to female farism, like gas cylinders, has for the Congress, it is in the Hindi
will be on Monday) in three ways. One, the issues that seats in these states in both the 2014 reached a huge majority of MP’s voters. A sudden shift in priorities to focused on women, and he has devel- belt that the party tends to be in
matter. Two, the relative position of weakness from and 2019 national elections. But the households. female voters does not have the same oped the image as a “provider”. All direct head-to-head contests against
Congress remained optimistic while While I did not conduct election impact. Second, and more impor- through the Hindi belt, he is directly the BJP.
which the Congress will now have to negotiate with its heading into the 2023 state elections, fieldwork in Madhya Pradesh, I tantly, the BJP, and Prime Minister associated with free ration schemes The new female voter upends tra-
partners in the INDIA bloc of opposition parties. And as it had won all three states in 2018. noticed a similar phenomenon dur- (PM) Narendra Modi in particular, in the wake of the coronavirus pan- ditional regional and caste-wise cal-
three, the method behind the Bharatiya Janata Party’s The Congress had pinned its hopes ing my fieldwork in Rajasthan, have assiduously built support demic. This is more than delivery; it culations. As the sun set in a village
on welfarism (particularly concern- namely, a significant gender gap with among women. Political scientist is branding Modi as the only person in Phulera constituency outside of
ability to combat not just anti-incumbency (a voter-side ing women voters). This model of women being more supportive of the Anirvan Chowdhury, for instance, who can deliver. In my fieldwork and Jaipur, a young woman sought us
problem) but the more dangerous: fatigue (a party gender-based welfarism had yielded BJP than men. It is worth noting here has chronicled how the BJP has surveys, I often ask about the individ- out: “I see you are here to cover the
worker-side problem). great benefits to Mamata Banerjee that the vaunted Axis exit poll got the mobilised female voters through ual who is “most responsible” for elections. My family always votes for
and the Trinamool Congress in West Rajasthan election wrong largely female party activists engaged in seva delivering benefits to the citizen. In the Congress, but this time I am too
The menu of issues across states was similar Bengal in 2021 and, arguably, was a because it predicted that women (service). South India, I disproportionately young to vote. But I will have a vote
(although the weightages may have been different): factor in the Congress’s victory over would favour the Congress more This impact is greatest in Hindi- hear about the respective chief min- in 2024, and I will vote for Modi.”
Welfare, leadership, corruption, and caste. Welfare the BJP in Karnataka. Given this than men (a similar misreading of speaking areas and Gujarat, where ister or government officials/bureau-
assessment, one would have female voters plagued the Axis poll outreach can be combined with Modi crats. But in North India, voters are Neelanjan Sircar is a senior fellow at
clearly worked for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, but expected the Congress to perform in Bihar and West Bengal predic- directly communicating to the far more likely to name the PM as the Centre for Policy Research.
didn’t work for the Congress in Rajasthan — suggesting particularly well among female vot- tions). This only underlines the diffi- female voter. Indeed, an advantage person responsible for the delivery of The views expressed are personal
that the former managed to tackle anti-incumbency far
more successfully than the latter. In Madhya Pradesh,
the BJP did it through what it termed “collective
leadership”, by not projecting a chief ministerial
candidate, a departure from the norm for the party in
What state results say { EMMANUEL MACRON } PRESIDENT OF FRANCE
P
states where it is the incumbent. It fielded several
parliamentarians, including ministers. It did the same in
Rajasthan, where it wasn’t in power, but this may have
about national politics I think we’re at a point where
also been driven by the desire to set the stage for a t is claimed the emerging electoral tive facets of our democratic tradition — faith the Israeli authorities are
generational change in leadership in the state (now that
it has won, the party can always choose not to do this,
but it does have the option of a generational change in
I trends from five states that held assem- in elections and political maturity. The sig-
bly elections are going to be a decisive nificant turnouts show that citizens have a
factor in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections; in great trust in the election process. The elec-
going to have to define their
objective and desired end
A
simple terms, we are told the assembly elec- tion is recognised as a legitimate mechanism
all three heartland states).
Corruption may have played a part in felling the
tions ought to be seen as a mood of the to constitute a representative government. At
nation. A section of media and political com- the same time, the voter is fully aware of the state more precisely
mentators highlight the impressive perform- nature of each election. CSDS-Lokniti surveys
Congress’ Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan, just as it may have ance of the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pra- show that voting trends in an assembly elec-
the party’s Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh and the desh (MP) and Chhattisgarh to argue that the tion do not always correspond to the nation-
Bharat Rashtra Samithi’s K Chandrashekar Rao in party under the leadership of Prime Minister al-level voting patterns. The recent assembly
Telangana (the Congress’ welfare guarantees, modelled
after the ones in Karnataka that enabled it wrest power
(PM) Narendra Modi is going to win the 2024 elections underline this political maturity.
election with ease. Second, these results confirm that political
This line of argument is plausible. The parties — and voters — have accepted a new
BJP’s tremendous achievement cannot be kind of state model, which I call the charita-
Lessons for Congress in
political diction of BJP
from the BJP in that state, may have helped too). And the
underestimated. The party did not allow the ble state. This is a state that makes a distinc-
jury is still out on whether the Congress’ promise of a Congress to take advantage of anti-incum- tion between the economic sphere of citizens
caste survey to wrest Other Backward Classes (OBC) bency in MP. The figure of Prime Minister and their political life. Since the economic
votes from the BJP worked — it does not seem to have — Narendra Modi was over-emphasised in sphere is supposed to be regulated by the he impressive victory of the BJP in image.
even as the BJP’s performance in Chhattisgarh and the
tribal belt of Madhya Pradesh indicates that the national
political hegemon’s effort to grow its coalition by
such a way that the contest eventually open market, the state offers one-time bene-
acquired a national character. These factors fits to citizens on a case-to-case basis as some
obviously create an impression that
the BJP will not have any difficulty
in 2024.
kind of political benevolence. The
welfare packages offered by political
parties in these elections is a good
T three Hindi patti (belt) states — Mad-
hya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajast-
han — is not a mere electoral victory. It
contains various implicit and explicit messa-
ges about the present and future of Indian pol-
Third, Hindutva, now the common sense of
a majority of the public in the Hindi belt states,
provides an aadhaar bhava (foundational emo-
tion) on which the BJP builds and renews its
politics. In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh,
co-opting the tribal vote is beginning to work. This interpretation of the results, example of this emerging political itics. The BJP’s victories show that the party the BJP was helped at the grassroots by sup-
The Congress, which has reason to cheer the however, suffers from two serious trajectory. The success of the BJP is commands huge popular support in northern portive mobilisational tools, for instance, on
Telangana verdict – a rare instance of the party wresting problems. First, it is unable to very much linked to this “charitable India. How did the party manage to build such the issue of sanatana dharma. Many sadhus of
explain the nature of BJP’s electoral state” model. PM Modi made a num- a deep connection with voters in the Hindi sanatana dharma such as Ram Bhadracharya
back power from a local rival – will be disappointed with professionalism. The BJP relied Hilal ber of references to various welfare patti? What is the big message emerging from projected this election as a war between
its showing in the three states where it won in 2018. It is heavily on PM Modi’s image to Ahmed schemes in such a manner that an these results, especially about the people’s dharma and adharma. In his meeting in
believed that the party deferred seat-sharing discussions expand the scope of the electoral effective combination of welfare trust in the BJP? Chhindwara, the constituency of Congress CM
discourse. Yet, the party did not schemes and infrastructure devel- These elections were organised on two cen- face Kamal Nath, Ram Bhadracharya appealed
with other members of the INDIA bloc, in anticipation of ignore state-level specificities. This grass- opment could be proposed as a package. tral narratives: First, the political narrative of to the public to support the party that protects
doing well in this round of state elections and, therefore, roots-based electoral strategy helped the Third, the question of political narrative. social welfare, and second, a caste census-cen- their dharma. At their conferences and prava-
being in a stronger position to negotiate. That cannot be party to attract voters. The BJP establish- The developmentalism of BJP was able to tric politics of reservations. The politics of wel- chans, these sadhus quoted Dravida Munnetra
ment is fully aware of the fact that it has to attract voters in a significant way. The party fare measures was pursued by both the main Kazhagam leader Udhayanidhi Stalin’s
— not after its showing in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and invent a completely different electoral strat- also used Hindutva-driven nationalism to contenders, the BJP and Congress. The BJP, remarks on sanatana dharma and projected
Madhya Pradesh, all direct contests against the BJP. egy in 2024. Second, this interpretation also produce a set of powerful and convincing through its well-planned election campaign, the Congress as a supporter of Stalin’s party
Leave alone the prospects of the INDIA grouping in underplays the Congress’s aggressive cam- arguments. Yet, one cannot ignore an equally propagated the benefits of double-en- and hence, a sanatana virodhi. This
2024, these results cast a long shadow on the ability of its paign and its remarkable performance in convincing counter-narrative, which has not gine sarkar, the Prime Minister Nar- campaign on sanatana dharma
Telangana. The party has made an important yet fully evolved. The Bihar caste census has endra Modi-led government at the emerged as a public narrative that
constituents to arrive at any sort of meaningful political investment in the notion of social been an important point of reference in these Centre and a BJP-led government in influenced voters in the belt stretch-
arrangement ahead of the national elections. Indeed, justice, especially after the successful Bharat elections. A section of political observers states such as Madhya Pradesh. ing from Chitrakoot in Madhya Pra-
barring Himachal Pradesh, the Congress is now a south Jodo Yatra (BJY). This new kind of social pol- even went on to describe it as Mandal 2.0 as Social welfare programmes by the desh to Bastar in Chhattisgarh. It had
itics is certainly going to play a role in the if the demand for a national-level caste cen- Modi government were highlighted Badri an impact even among the tribals
Indian party — something that should weaken its future. sus would have the kind of impact that the in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. and Dalits in MP, Chhattisgarh, and
Narayan
negotiating position further. The South has enough Still, these assembly elections cannot be Mandal Commission report created. This The Congress and the BJP have Rajasthan.
strong regional parties capable of taking on the BJP; (and should not be) analysed purely from the kind of sweeping generalisation is simplistic. evolved their own set of beneficiaries The Congress heavily relied on the
restricted perspective of what they mean for However, it is also true that the Opposition, (labharthis). But the Congress has yet demand for a caste census to mobil-
what was needed was a party that could take it on in the the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. There is a need with the caste census demand, has forced the to create political and organisational connec- ise voters from Other Backward Classes (OBC)
heartland; these results show that the Congress is not it. to look at the wider implications of these out- BJP to rethink its ideological position on tions with its beneficiaries. However, the BJP on their caste identities. The strategy failed
As for the BJP, it could not have asked for a better comes from the vantage point of Indian internal caste divisions among marginalised organised its beneficiaries into a community utterly in this election. Caste continues to be
democracy. There are four interesting infer- communities. Obviously, the Congress could — labharthi samuday — and established a influential in Hindi belt states, but the Con-
walk-up to 2024. In the three states where it has won, the ences. not develop this line of argument success- close connection with them. The BJP did this gress has failed to understand that the mood
party did not project a chief ministerial face. The First, the enthusiasm of voters in getting fully in these elections. by engaging with them by deploying a vocabu- has changed. This is an era of multiple aspira-
elections were fought under the banner of collective involved in the election process. Such Finally, the North-South political divide lary of family terms such as mama (uncle), and tions. Caste mobility is just one aspiration. The
involvement actually highlights two distinc- has found an interesting meaning in these ladli behna (dear sister). Party workers started electorate also asks the following question:
leadership and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The elections. The BJP’s dominance in northern celebrating festivals such as Holi, Diwali, and ‘What after caste identity?’ The Congress also
caste census, which could have fragmented its rainbow India, clearly, gives an advantage to the Raksha Bandhan with the beneficiaries of var- has not accepted the fact that the BJP is no
Hindu coalition, does not seem to have found much party. It will be easy for the BJP to evoke Hin- ious schemes. On its part, the Congress deliv- longer a Brahman-Bania party; it has OBCs in
dutva-driven nationalism in these states in ered schemes to needy people but could not its leadership. So, a cohesive mobilisation of
traction. And, with a significant number of new faces in the coming months, especially in relation to create any long-term emotional connection OBC castes against the BJP by invoking the
Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh, the party the proposed inauguration of the Ram Tem- with them. The manas (mind) of the Hindi question of caste census is almost impossible.
can now effect a generational change in leadership in ple in Ayodhya. The slogan “double-engine patti stays evidently connected with a party How are these election results likely to influ-
government” will also become more relevant that offered social support with dignity and an ence the 2024 general elections? It will compel
these states — if it is of a mind to. The results also show and effective for the party. On the other hand, emotional connection. The BJP’s political dic- the Congress to rethink its strategies and dic-
that a decade after its ascent to power in the Centre, the the revival of the Congress in southern India tion frames economic issues and development tion of politics, especially in the Hindi belt. It
BJP’s election machine remains efficient — and hungry. is an important phenomenon. The Telangana within the framework of cultural and social will also impact the processes, negotiations,
win is an indication that the party organisa- emotions that resonate at the grassroots. claims, and counterclaims for seats and promi-
There’s a fourth way as well in which this round of tion at the state level is evolving in an Secondly, trust matters a lot for the rural nence in the Opposition alliance, INDIA,
assembly elections sets the context for 2024, although unprecedented manner after the victory in public in rural India. Prime Minister Narendra though the Congress is likely to remain its
this has more to do with how we study elections and our Karnataka. Modi has created a huge trust capital for his pivot. The results have strengthened the image
These four indications will become more politics among the people by assuring them of of Prime Minister Modi, which will undoubt-
ability to predict outcomes. All four verdicts were clear meaningful and concrete in the coming developmental, religious, and cultural secu- edly create a positive electoral impact for the
— in terms of vote share and seats; none was as close as months. rity. In these elections too, Modi took the risk BJP.
opinion polls said they would be. Ahead of 2024, that of making himself the face of the campaign
Hilal Ahmed is associate professor, and assuring voters that “I am here and I will Badri Narayan is professor, Govind Ballabh Pant
may warrant a relook at how opinion polls are The BJP relied heavily on PM Modi’s image Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. work for you”. If the BJP had not succeeded in Social Science Institute, Allahabad.
conducted and how election campaigns are analysed. to expand its political outreach HT PHOTO The views expressed are personal these three states, it could have affected Modi’s The views expressed are personal
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mile. People will have to change their lets, parks, buildings and cityscapes—is
behaviour in ways that are pro-environ- in bad shape. We Indians overexploit,
ment. And for that, they will have to be underinvest and under-maintain our
more pro-social. It is here that things public spaces because our sense of com-
get stuck. Among people who have high mon community is inadequate. Ambed-
diversity and low social capital, it is kar nailed it when he warned that “How
going to be extremely difficult to eke can people divided into several thou-
out the minimum cooperation neces- sands of castes be a nation? The sooner
sary to make the required adjustments. we realise that we are not as yet a nation
NITIN PAI The more ambitious the global climate in the social and psychological sense of
is co-founder and director of The goal, the more painful the everyday the word, the better for us.” We can
Takshashila Institution, an independent changes people will have to make and symbolically become Bangalorean from
centre for research and education in public greater the social capital needed. It is time to time, for instance by cheering
policy. unclear if the world has the social for RCB in T20 cricket, but the number
I
am likely to get into trouble with Paris Agreement set. a city-wide view. The city’s bad infra-
many of my friends for saying this, Any society that must meet environ- structure, terrible traffic and apathetic
but I think the world is making mental targets must have effective governance are the inevitable conse-
T
he Indian economy’s stellar per- the fallout will have an adverse impact on rural international relations, this kind of ety—people differ too much along too have or expect to get. Road pricing, paid
formance in the second quarter (Q2) consumption at a time when private consump- progress is unprecedented, not least at a many dimensions, making it nearly parking and compliance with traffic
time when the world lacks a stable impossible to agree on anything, much rules can substantially reduce atmos-
of fiscal 2023-24 put all previous tion shows signs of slowing. Growth in private order, technological change is causing less coordinate efforts and share bene- pheric pollution and traffic congestion.
GDP estimates, including the consumption, which accounts for close to 57% social upheavals everywhere and hun- fits and costs. They are unpopular and very few cities
Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) own of GDP, was muted at 3.1%, suggesting some of dreds of millions of people around the Robert Putnam, the American social have implemented them. Yet, these are
estimate of 6.5%, in the shade. At the growth drivers that have held the economy world have entered the middle class. scientist who developed the idea, dis- the kind of things we must do to keep the
7.6%, Q2 growth came on the back of buoyancy in good stead so far might be petering out. The Regardless of how its outcomes are covered that diversity diminishes social earth cool. We cannot do them until we
judged, the mere fact that CoP-28 is capital. People hunker down, become build the necessary social capital.
in manufacturing (at 13.9%) and construction trade, hotels and transport category, a major happening at all is remarkable. Seeing less trusting and less cooperative when Unfortunately, contemporary Indian
(13.3%). Gross value added (GVA), often seen as a employer of those at the bottom of the pyramid, how global trade talks, UN reform and they encounter people who are differ- politics is weakening the kind of social
better estimate of the true level of activity, grew has also done poorly. Its Q2 growth at 4.3% is cyber governance have fallen by the ent from them. Within Indian society, capital that bridges different identity
7.4%. The numbers are testimony to the “resil- the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2020-21. wayside, there is reason to be cautiously teeming as it is with jati, ethnic, linguis- groups and creates a sense of shared
ience and strength of the Indian economy in Taken together, disappointment by these two optimistic that the world’s governments tic, vocational and class divisions, the nationhood, statehood and cityhood.
are taking climate seriously. sense of common community is Religious and sectarian polarization,
testing times,” said Prime Minister Narendra sectors should temper our celebration of the This, however, does not mean that I restrictive. When we say ‘we’, it seldom caste-affirming politics and geographic
Modi. Chief economic advisor V. Anantha surprise showing overall. Especially since it am not worried about the environment. means the whole city, state or popula- chauvinism are undermining what little
Nageswaran was guarded, saying, “We need to plays into the criticism that the post-covid My fear is that getting international tion. It mostly means ‘my family’, ‘my sense of commonality we have. I am
work out the numbers and see what kind of recovery has been K-shaped, with upper-in- agreements and national policies in community’, ‘my group’ or at best ‘my afraid we cannot make meaningful
upside it imparts to the overall estimate for the come classes recovering much faster than those place is the easiest part of the problem. neighbourhood.’ This is the likely rea- progress towards saving the planet
The hard bit will be the proverbial last- son why public property in India—toi- without first seeing each other as ‘us’.
year.” Understandably so. Geopolitical factors, at the bottom. Ironically, this has come despite
the strength of the US economy and hence the the Centre ensuring there is no let-up in public
US Federal Reserve’s continued fight against investment (private investment is still fighting
inflation, and the ongoing global slowdown are shy) and government consumption being
sure to lower growth in the second half of the directed at relieving distress among the poor.
year. But with 7.7% real GDP growth in the first Widening income inequality, aided by a
half, overall growth for the full year could end robust bull run in the stock market, with the
Community connectedness
New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Chandigarh*, Pune* Wednesday, December 4, 2013 Vol.7 No.288 `3.00 in DelhiNCR/`4.00 outside DelhiNCR 24
28 PAGES
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up a tad higher than earlier estimates of 6.5%, value of all listed shares going above $4 trillion UPA’s agenda may
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INTERNATIONAL: Brazil’s economy shrinks
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rules, expands most corrupt. While the good news is that India has not slipped down in the
rankings, the bad news is that its position has not improved either. The
anti-corruption watchdog surveyed 177 countries in total.
NSEL directors
B Y K HUSHBOO N ARAYAN
I n the long history of
military projects ending
up with consumer
spectrumsupply
[email protected] applications, the
RANK 1= ·························
Countries (least to most corrupt) announcement by online
been used and this euphoria over the official elections will likely see identity politics in play
Least corrupt MUMBAI
retailer Amazon that it will
COUNTRY RANK T he Mumbai police’s eco-
nomic offences
(EOW) on Tuesday seized the
wing
use drones for urgent
deliveries is intriguing.
These machines have been
an enormous difference in
Analysts say extra paying for any amount of spec- Denmark 1 assets of Jignesh Shah, chair- controversial because of
spectrum could dampen trum,” Uppal said. man and managing director of their use in surgical strikes
To be sure, both measures are Financial Technologies (India) against terrorists. Privacy
final price but new a welcome change from the New Zealand 1 Ltd (FTIL), and other directors activists will have reason to
merger rules will not past—when all spectrum alloca- on the board of FTIL-control- worry if governments begin
data is not entirely surprising. But after all the more than economic issues. Yet, it matters how
catalyse consolidation tion was ad hoc, and there was
no articulated M&A policy (al-
Finland 3 led National Spot Exchange
Ltd (NSEL) in connection with
to use drones to watch
them under the guise of
though this didn’t exactly stop the `5,574.35 crore payment protecting them.
B Y S HAUVIK G HOSH
[email protected]
M&As). Vodafone India Ltd and
Bharti Airtel Ltd, India’s two old-
Sweden 3 crisis at the commodity spot
exchange.
But the Amazon
experiment could open
························· est mobile telephone companies, The move is yet another in- more benign possibilities.
hosannas have been sung, a discerning look at well people are doing. Not just in the near-term,
megahertz (MHz) of spectrum in the empowered group of minis- INDIA 94 from events at the exchange, research. For example, the
the 1800MHz band (so-called 2G ters (eGoM) on spectrum. The which is 99.99% owned by difficulties in reaching
or second-generation spectrum) Cabinet is expected to take up FTIL.
and also finalized the much- the issues in a meeting on 5 De-
South Sudan 173 Rajvardhan Sinha, addition-
essential supplies to
stranded citizens during
awaited merger and acquisition cember. al commissioner of EOW, an- floods are a big problem in
(M&A) norms for telcos, al-
though neither move is likely to
The increase in spectrum be-
ing put on sale could lead to
Sudan 174 nounced the seizure of assets
of the directors in the NSEL
India, as the recent disaster
in Uttarakhand showed
address the issue it is aimed at. higher interest from prospective case. once again. Drones could
175
the disaggregated numbers throws up some but over the decades ahead, as it will play a key
The government increased the bidders, one analyst said. “We are trying to unravel the be one solution.
quantum of spectrum to be auc- “The quantum of spectrum in multiple layers of the books of It is no surprise that US
tioned from the 298MHz it had auction plays a very important accounts of NSEL. The focus of venture capital firms have
earlier proposed to sell. role in determining the fair price Korea (North) 175 the investigation is to find the begun to invest—albeit in a
The auction, expected to take for the spectrum, capacity of the money trail,” Sinha said. small way—in new
place in January, apart from al- operators to pay for the quantum Other directors whose assets companies that seek to
lowing price discovery of spec- of spectrum they acquire, quality
Somalia 175 have been seized include develop drones for civilian
trum, is expected to raise a mini- of service etc,” said Hemant uses.
Source: Corruption Perceptions Index 2013, Transparency International
mum of `36,385 crore for the ex- Joshi, a partner at Deloitte TURN TO PAGE 5®
AHMED RAZA KHAN/MINT
disquieting features. First, agriculture, on role in whether we can sustain a fast GDP clip
chequer in the 1800Mhz band Haskins and Sells.
alone, if it is all sold at the ap- “EGoM’s decision to increase
which a large chunk of our population depends, beyond our current ‘middle-income’ level. The
than a third of the spectrum it of- trum,” said Joshi.
fered, raising `10,000 crore, one-
fourth the expected amount. It
failed to sell any of the spectrum
On the M&A rules, Joshi said
that if the acquiring operators do
not have to pay a market-deter-
Vikram Akula
has grown at a 17-quarter low of 1.2%. True, government and RBI both have their task cut
consulting firm Com First India would also get access to sub- general meeting (AGM) in
Pvt. Ltd, said. “The price that has scribers and infrastructure from Mumbai on Tuesday was a large-
been finalized is still not very the company they are acquiring. ly tame affair with SKS Trust Ad-
high and much lower than the In an earlier meeting on 22 visors Pvt. Ltd (STAPL), the larg-
reserve price in the last two auc- November, eGoM had set the re- est shareholder in the company,
tions. There should be enough serve price for the spectrum to choosing not to press its demand
stable democracy.
participation.” be sold in January at around 25% for a board seat for founder
And while India’s telecom sec- lower than the price that was Vikram Akula.
tor, with at least eight telcos in fixed for the auction in March. STAPL, however, forced the
some of the decline can be attributed to erratic out. They must ensure that the emergence of
each major circle or operating The eGoM had fixed the base company to put all seven resolu-
area, is ripe for consolidation, price for 1MHz spectrum in the tions to vote at the AGM—four
according to analysts, the new 1,800MHz band across the coun- ordinary and three special reso-
M&A norms are unlikely to cata- try at `1,764.79 crore. The price lutions, including one on reap-
lyse them, at least immediately. in the March auction was `2,379 pointment of its managing direc-
The new rules require the ac- crore per Mhz. The telecom reg- tor and chief executive officer
quiring telco to pay market rates ulator had reduced the price by (CEO) M.R. Rao. All resolutions
(to the government) for spec- 37%, which was then raised by were passed except one special
trum above 4.4Mhz in the ac- the Telecom Commission and resolution on employees’ stock
monsoon rains this year. Also, the share of allied our economy is equitable, the former through
quired telco, a requirement that, subsequently approved by the options.
apart from affecting the valua- eGOM. The regulator had rec- The Trust also wrote to the
tion of the deal, could make the ommended a reserve price of capital market regulator, the Se-
overall transaction very expen- `1,496.92 crore per MHz of curities and Exchange Board of
sive. “The M&A norms are on ex- 1,800MHz spectrum. India (Sebi), seeking its interven-
pected lines. There is some dis- In case of the 900MHz band to tion to withhold the results of the
appointment on the fact that be auctioned in Delhi, Mumbai vote. It cited “irregularities” by
spectrum by the resultant entity and Kolkata, the eGoM accepted the company at the AGM in the
will have to be paid for but the the Telecom Commission’s base conduct of the poll and sought
activities in the farm sector helps cushion the fiscal measures and the latter by delivering on
government would find it diffi- price recommendation, which “an independent enquiry”.
Rob e Rt D. P u tn a m
cult to justify companies not was 25% more than what the reg- “We believe if the incomplete
ulator had recommended. The proxies were precluded from the
Mint is also available for R7 with issue of spectrum in the 800Mhz
Hindustan Times in Delhi-NCR only band is still unclear. TURN TO PAGE 10®
weak monsoon’s shock to rural incomes. But its mandate to get inflation down to 4%.
T
he way India rescues Indians, it is as defeat activism. The New York Times ware broke down. So humans had to squeeze TV channels rejoiced. Politicians garlanded as they are the most logical outcome of
though the nation values life. But reported, “The government had chopped up and scrape to complete the the workers for cameras. Indian traffic. We are that place where
India, in my view, cares very little; it the project into 53 pieces, each under the final few metres of the res- Maybe we are not a serious everything leads to a mishap, but there
just likes the spectacle of a rescue. A rescue 100-kilometer requirement for mandatory cue. That was when ‘rat- The country people, maybe we tend to would always be that guy who brings cold
by India is like a frantic ambulance carrying environmental impact assessments.” The miners,’ who were also veer towards farce. soda from somewhere for the victim.
a man it had run over in the first place. government also invoked national security, impoverished enough to seems okay India cheapens life, yet Road accidents are the dark leveller in
A few days ago, 41 construction workers as the road is vital for military movements. do this sort of stuff, were there is something about a India. A billionaire died recently; actors and
were rescued 17 days after they were We can say accidents do happen every- called in. ‘Rat-mining’ is
with some kinds rescue that captivates Indi- politicians have perished in them. Every
Even sectoral regulators have recognized the importance of trust. Let’s hope it’s an enduring concern and not a passing fancy
REUTERS
ALLISON SCHRAGER
is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist
covering economics.
RAJRISHI SINGHAL
is a senior journalist and author of the
forthcoming book ‘Slip, Stitch and Stumble’.
@rajrishisinghal
T
he humanities and social sciences are
failing. Their popularity in the US
has been waning in recent years, as
T
is the season for cheer and goodwill. many students enter science, technology, US campuses have seen opinion split over
And for some departures and rebirths. engineering and math fields to seek skills the Israel-Hamas war ISTOCKPHOTO
The demise of two elderly and directly applicable to their careers, but the
renowned statesmen, and the re-entry last few months have exposed a deeper nomic value, too. It enables discovery of
of the term ‘rat-miners’ to our quotid- weakness: The humanities and social sci- new things and building on the last thing.
ian vocabulary has re-introduced the ences are no longer training students to be Europe’s liberal outlook and the intel-
unquantifiable quality of trust into our daily con- critical thinkers. lectual openness promoted by its universi-
versations. Even regulators across different sectors This failure creates serious challenges ties helped create the conditions for expo-
seem to have woken up to the potential of this for our culture and democracy, leaving stu- nential growth in wealth and living stan-
attribute. Over the past week, two stalwarts— dents less capable of managing a changing dards. Dogma drags down curiosity,
Charlie Munger from the imperfect world of stock- economy. innovation and growth.
picking and Henry Kissinger from the complex and In the last decade, humanities enrol- Lately, as Clive Crook noted, many in the
amoral universe of international relations—passed ment has fallen 17%, as surveys show that humanities have rejected notions of open-
away at ages 99 and 100, respectively. The high- more Americans now question the value of ness and free inquiry crucial to the univer-
light of the week, though, was a tribe of forgotten a college education. In 2015, 57% had a lot sity. Instead of teaching liberal principles,
miners, adept at wriggling into holes and extract- of confidence in the US higher education they emphasize a hierarchy of oppression
ing resources from the earth’s belly, miraculously system, and now only 36% do. There is less and define people based on immutable
rescuing 41 workers from a tunnel. Munger, Kiss- desire among taxpayers to finance the characteristics. Such a reductive and ahis-
inger and the rat-miners have all compelled a humanities. West Virginia University is torical view of the world increases scepti-
re-examination of the notion of trust. making drastic cuts to some of its humani- cism of the humanities.
Let’s start with Charlie Munger. Vice-chairman ties departments. North Carolina will no The events of 7 October and its after-
of legendary holding company Berkshire Hatha- longer fund distinguished professorships math further exposed the intellectual inad-
way and Warren Buffett’s lifetime compatriot, at public universities in non-STEM fields. equacy of the oppressor/victim approach.
Munger brought a folksy unpretentiousness to the It is not surprising that many students Reasonable people can disagree on many
arcane science of stock-picking. It is not surprising are flocking to STEM classes. The primary aspects of this long and complex conflict.
that the news of his passing inundated social media reason, if you ask students, is that they want Yet, in the humanities, too many professors
platforms with Munger’s wholesome maxims and to major in subjects that can get them good have enabled a cartoonish version of his-
witty one-liners. Jostling among these numerous jobs. Reading great books, learning history tory. Some of the most egregious ‘open let-
homilies are his pithy investment philosophies, and debating philosophy do not appear rel- ters’ about the Israel-Hamas war, for exam-
dripping with commonsensical values and imbued evant to this goal. Perhaps students feel this ple, have come from professors in humani-
with surprising simplicity. One of the quotes, and way because the arts are not doing what ties and social sciences. The more balanced
it’s impossible to remember the exact wording in Trust had a field day on 28 November when 41 are often willing to violate trust in their quest for traditionally made them valuable: teaching letters tend to be signed by professors in
the constantly shifting timeline of social media workers trapped in a collapsed under-construction higher or quicker profits: what doesn’t exist on a people how to think critically. STEM, business and economics.
platforms, has Munger saying that during inter- Uttarakhand tunnel were rescued by workers spreadsheet is not worth heeding. B-schools also, Critical thinking has never been more US universities have always been differ-
views, he laid greater store by a potential using a banned manual technique known as rat- typically, do not appreciate history, or else they important. A changing economy offers no ent than their overseas counterparts:
employee’s trustworthiness over his abilities or hole mining. The miners used their hands and would have noted that violating trust can lead to guarantees. Just a few years ago, learning Rather than study just one subject, such as
qualifications. Here is another one: “It’s a real basic tools to burrow through collapsed debris the emergence of multiple risks. to code seemed to offer stability. Now AI law or philosophy, many US students
pleasure to earn the trust of your customers slowly where sophisticated machinery and industrial It is, therefore, legitimate to ask whether any can write code. But the ability to think ana- receive a four-year undergraduate liberal
over time by doing what’s right.” It is noteworthy drillers had failed. The irony doesn’t end there: surfacing of risks has prompted sectoral regulators lytically, reason well and communicate arts education, including philosophy, his-
that Munger, who pursued number-crunching for officialdom, which had banned rat-mining in 2014, to pay greater attention to customer service. The clearly with a wide range of people will tory and literature, in addition to sciences.
a livelihood, actually valued a quality that cannot had to repose trust in these long-forgotten miners ministry of consumer affairs recently expressed remain invaluable. Still, it is not too much of a stretch to say
be quantified. after exhausting all other options. It is also note- reservations about the aviation industry’s trade This is not the first time the economy has that, in the 20th century, America’s uni-
Contrast that with how former US secretary of worthy that the team of rescuers included many practices. Even the directorate general of civil avia- been rapidly transformed. Modern liberal- versities played a similar role to Europe’s in
state Henry Kissinger’s death was received. His from a minority community: the trapped construc- tion, where customer service is a secondary part of ism can be credited for the rise in wealth the 18th century.
New York Times obituary read, “Few diplomats tion workers did not hesitate to submit themselves the mandate, issued a soft and equivocal report on and living standards that came from the But here in the 21st—as the economy
have been both celebrated and reviled with such to their rescue efforts, trusting them uncondition- customer service. In the financial sector, the last major transition, from agriculture to undergoes a transformation as radical as
passion as Mr. Kissinger.” Carpet-bombing civil- ally. Even the politically-sponsored hate-mongers Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been expressing industry. It is no coincidence, economic that of 200 years ago—US universities
ians in Cambodia, financing a coup to overthrow kept their counsel for a change, putting their concern over regulated entities paying greater historian Deirdre McCloskey argues, that seem to have lost their way.
Chile’s democratically elected leader, sponsoring untrustworthy theories on ice temporarily. attention to customer acquisition over customer 18th century Europe was the centre of lib- Educating people in the spirit of liberal
Indonesia’s attack on East Timor that resulted in The notion of trust resides within a broad spec- service; the central bank has been signalling the eral thought and the birthplace of industri- principles is more important than ever. If
the death of about 100,000 East Timorese were trum, ranging from its existence as an enduring virtues of customer service to its regulated entities. alization. What made this place and time you have a simplistic or reductive view of
some of his diplomatic excesses. Indians view Kiss- moral force—often used interchangeably with Clearly, the fraying of trust has got regulators exceptional, she argues, was a pervasive the world, AI will outthink you. But if you
inger with mixed feelings: there is sneaking admi- honesty—to a hygienic, sanitary prerequisite for worked up. Businesses mistook past forbearance belief in the individual and the ability of can reason, manage ambiguity and adapt to
ration for his realpolitik, but it is usually overcome frictionless conduct of business. At the profane end and post-pandemic relaxations as a licence to push anyone to become their best self. novel situations and new information, you
with loathing for Kissinger’s unprincipled and of the scale, there is no greater irony than trust, the envelope. And so, while the regulatory dis- These ideas may have come from acade- can use AI to help you navigate a changing
unstinted military support to Pakistan during the which refuses to be quantified or included in any pleasure is welcome, the timing is curious; any reg- mia, but they radiated through society. economy. That’s not the only reason US
Bangladesh liberation war. Of all the characteris- excel sheet, becoming the lynchpin for commer- ulatory push for customer service becomes credi- They helped bring about universal educa- universities should re-establish the spirit of
tics attributed to Kissinger—some gushing, some cial transactions. Which probably explains why ble only once it acquires a customer-centric stabil- tion and an atmosphere where ideas could openness and free inquiry. But it’s a com-
circumspect—trust is conspicuously absent. modern businesses nourished on B-school models ity and sheds its campaign-centric seasonality. be freely debated. This culture has eco- pelling one. ©BLOOMBERG
thEIr VIEW
I
n the post-pandemic years, a macroeco- The higher WPR means about 100 million wage rate, total real earnings may not rise was for urban men in casual work. fall in average hours worked even as more
nomic puzzle has emerged in India and more Indians found work between 2017-18 much or even decline. Since more people are in people are finding jobs?
elsewhere. Economies have expanded, and 2022-23, on top of those who were Akshit Arora notes work now post-pandemic, Are workers who were working longer in
but not spectacularly, and retail inflation in already employed. The exact numbers dif- (shorturl.at/iAIJ8) that The dramatic the hours worked of those the pre-pandemic years willingly cutting
nearly every country has remained high. At fer—a bit higher or lower—depending on the since 2017-18, the monthly already employed pre-pan- down on working hours since the real wage
the same time, employment has surged and population projections used, but this is a vast real earnings of casual increase even demic would have fallen rate has increased, allowing for more leisure
unemployment rates are at historic lows. increase in employment—four Australias or workers have increased for more, allowing the unem- time? Or are employers taking on more peo-
How can this puzzle be solved? Let us look two times South Korea’s entire population. males and females, and for
though GDP ployed to take up work. ple but providing everyone with less work so
is a professor of economics
at the facts for India first. In October, India’s
retail inflation was at a four-month low of
Many new workers are women and are
working on farms. However, the level of
self-employed men. Self-
employed women, many
growth has been The Indian case—higher
employment with lower
that their reliance on existing workers can
reduce? That would help them cap nominal
and director (research) at Great
Lakes Institute of Management,
4.8%. This is likely to be a temporary respite.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forecasts
employment in the regular wage sector also
rose during this period by about 13 million or
of whom work as farm
labour, saw a decline in
unspectacular hours worked—seems sim-
ilar to the situation in Euro-
wage growth going ahead.
If men continue to work fewer hours,
Chennai. retail inflation to average 5.4% in 2024-25. so, albeit it recorded a decline in its share by real wages; so did regular- calls for deeper pean countries, which have would that make space for more women to
That would make it four straight years of about 2 percentage points in total employ- wage workers, both men seen a similar phenomenon continue with paid work? Would more fami-
higher inflation than RBI’s target of 4%. ment to about 21% in 2022-23. and women, who saw a analysis post-pandemic, according lies become duel-earners, with a husband
While inflation remains on the higher Higher inflation put a strain on family marginal decline relative to a European Central Bank spending fewer hours in paid work but
side, economic growth, though robust, has budgets, prompting more people, especially to pre-pandemic levels. report (shorturl.at/pyGMR). increasing time spent on household work?
not been in double digits since the pandemic women, to take up paid work. However, with What’s driving the decline in real earnings In contrast, in the US, average hours worked If that were to happen, it would allow a struc-
and was muted before that, but India’s economic growth over that period not par- in some categories of workers—the number held stable in the aftermath of the pandemic, tural upward shift in women’s employment.
employment rate has increased, according ticularly high, how is it that employers have of hours worked or real hourly wage rate? but unemployment rose. India has seen a significant rise in employ-
to Periodic Labour Force Surveys (PLFS) work to offer to more people, not only farm According to the PFLS reports, since Unlike in Europe, however, the real ment for both women and men since the
data. The worker-population ratio (WPR), work, but also in urban areas? There are two 2017-18, working hours on average have hourly wage rate on average increased for all pandemic started. While that is good news,
measured by ‘usual status,’ for 15+ years possibilities. While employment has risen, fallen for both men and women in rural and categories of Indian workers between a lot is going on under the surface that needs
increased to 56 per 100 in 2022-23 from it could be that the inflation-adjusted hourly urban India in all types of work—self-em- 2017-18 and 2022-23. The most significant deeper analysis.
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12
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Elections belong to the people. It’s their
decision. If they decide to turn their back
on the fire and burn their behinds, then Abraham
they will just have to sit on their blisters Lincoln
N
EITHER arrogance nor compla- The BJP masterfully managed an array of to overlook the minutiae. But they were a
cency is a virtue when it comes crucial determinant of outcomes in Rajas-
INDIAN EXPRESS IS NOT AN to power, but there’s a difference micro weapons to snatch victory. While the than too, as shown by the robust numbers
INDUSTRY. IT IS A MISSION. between the two. The first can be Grand Old Party fell on its sword of hubris in the ‘Others’ column—BSP again among
sustained, at least for a duration, them. If the scale of the BJP’s victory looks
THREE-PIECE SUITE
— Ramnath Goenka
if one has enough boots on the like a surprise in an election that could
ground. The second is outright have gone either way, it’s only because even
AND A GLASS
folly under all circumstances. The four two months ago Ashok Gehlot was in with
state election results today—with a stun- a good chance to buck the three-decade
HAUGHTY CONGRESS ning 3-1 ‘upset’ win for the Modi dispensa- trend of pendulum voting. Put it down to
SQUANDERS INITIATIVE
tion—give us a chance to see this not for its
value as some moral abstraction but as an
active ingredient that shapes concrete
QUARTER FULL hubris. If professional internal surveys
had successfully guided candidate selection
in Karnataka, the Rajasthan CM chose to
TO BJP AHEAD OF 2024 political reality. The phrase ‘upset’ win may
be pardoned, if only because it would have
left quite a few people upset! They would do
ignore that feedback, trust his own intui-
tion and largely repeat his band of merry
loyalist MLAs. Reason? Nothing more
I
better to spend time in introspection. exalted than a satrap’s pride in his own
F the Congress picked up momentum months before the 2019 This is a good time to scrawl together a factional clout. Specifically, his cussedness
Lok Sabha elections by trouncing the BJP in the big Hindi psychological pen-sketch of India’s two big SANTWANA Editor on Sachin Pilot, the face of the generational
heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhat- national parties. The BJP may never be BHATTACHARYA change that he thwarted a second time
tisgarh, it got ejected from them this time around, dampen- deemed entirely blame-free on the count of last year when he could have gracefully
ing the party’s say in the opposition INDIA bloc. In hindsight, arrogance, but it rarely, if ever, errs on the gone on to bigger things. His vanity proved
side of complacency. Yes, it is infinitely bigger than his welfarism.
had the Grand Old Party shed arrogance and given a few seats
resourceful now: it knows how to generate But if one has to see generosity of spirit
to allies like the Samajwadi Party, it would have been a force megawatts of power from both mainstream going AWOL as soon as the Congress whiffs
multiplier and possibly altered the dynamic in states like and alternative fuels. But more crucially, power, look no further than Madhya
Madhya Pradesh. Kamal Nath was so overconfident that he having had to work for decades to get where Pradesh. Asked about the Samajwadi
did not think extensive campaigning by Priyanka and Rahul it has, it knows how crucial it is to guard the Party’s grouse about not being given
Gandhi was necessary. He is now licking his wounds. flame and never eases its eternal vigil. enough seats, its CM face Kamal Nath had
Chhattisgarh was more of a surprise as the Congress was The Congress, by contrast, still exhibits infamously said: “Arrey bhai chhodo,
residues of entitlement as it snatches defeat Akhilesh-Vakhilesh” (loosely translated in
more than confident of retaining it. Loads of welfare schemes, from the jaws of victory. Complacency may spirit, ‘Don’t mention trifling things like
Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel’s soft Hindutva and the seem a harsh word for a party that’s indeed Akhilesh Yadav, have other things to do’).
lack of credible leadership in the state BJP had, in his mind, trying to turn a new leaf, but look beneath That has poisoned the 2024 waters for the
made the election an open-and-shut case. Yet, anti-incumbency the top veneer of earnest diligence, and one entire INDIA bloc, with the bitterness
is a beast the Congress has not learnt to manage. Fresh cor- sees that down the line it’s still the natural spreading to Uttar Pradesh.
ruption allegations by central law enforcement agencies reflex to take power as a given, even a birth- The man who held on, Shivraj Singh
right, sometimes so much it begins to emit Chouhan, the affable ‘Mamaji’ of millions,
against Baghel close to the polling date—on the Mahadev app
flashes of arrogance before having any- is not only a rare fifth-time winner. His
scam—added to his discomfort. BJP’s Raman Singh, pulled out thing to be arrogant about. That makes it presence is emblematic of the BJP’s rich
of political wilderness at the last moment to lead the charge less than nimble whenever it comes into a armoury. The party’s formidable war
in Raipur, emerged victorious. In Rajasthan, no amount of contest from a position of some strength. machinery is composed of many parts. The
papering over could hide the ugly factional feud between Chief And these elections were unusual in that, gladiatorial persona of Prime Minister
Minister Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot. Sops such as free after a long time, the Congress went up Narendra Modi, a warhead if there was
against the BJP with odds that were equal one, with Home Minister Amit Shah play-
power, subsidised LPG refills and health insurance were not
if not on its side. These results could have SOURAV ROY ing the radar that reads the battleground
enticing enough for a repeat mandate. Goes to show the politics theoretically gone 4-0 in its favour, certainly and makes subtle adjustments in direction
of giveaways alone cannot win elections—even in Telangana. 3-1, and at least 2-2. The BJP has upended sively ended the KCR era and all eyes will bency wave, and the BJP didn’t even project of deployment. The RSS, with its exhaus-
Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra spent ample time in all those expectations with an emphatic sweep now be on the new strongman, Revanth a strong alternative face. When the votes tive ground connect, indispensable in core
three states but to no avail. in its core northern heartland. Almost as if Reddy. But in the process, it left the north- started coming in, everyone was in disbe- Hindutva states like Madhya Pradesh,
People instead reposed trust in Narendra Modi, who sought to underline a regional contrast, the Grand ern fields fallow. And there, an array of lief that the electorate had not gone for where it apparently pulled out all the stops.
votes in his own name despite these being state elections. Old Party’s consolation came in the South, micro elements were harnessed master- continuity. What turned things is the move- And strong regional leaders like Chouhan,
with the Karnataka effect spreading to a fully by the BJP even as the Congress, at ment of the OBC vote, particularly that whose ‘Laadli’ scheme endeared him to
Matching the Congress guarantee for guarantee helped, as it full-blown renaissance in Telangana, a state various levels, behaved almost as if victory of the Sahu community, and that of the the women voters, and Vasundhara Raje in
knocked out the GOP’s USP. Modi now holds the initiative in it had helped create before vanishing with- was a certainty. If seen through the lens of tribal belt, both Bastar in the south and Rajasthan, the strike rate of whose loyal-
the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The Telangana acquisi- out a trace for a decade. party psychology, there are no surprises. Surguja in the north. The X-factor no one ists is not insignificant. The party betrays
tion of the Congress was a phenomenal feat, but was overshad- The imminence of that last victory ironi- All other variables taken as equal, every- counted was the alliance between the a certain ambivalence towards its second
owed by the drubbing in the other three states. Telangana was cally became a factor for the GOP’s wipeout thing comes down to innate nature. Bahujan Samaj Party and the Gondwana rung, and we may see that playing out
gift-wrapped by pollster Sunil Kanugolu, who had worked in in the north. Enthused by the perceptible The results do present us with a hierar- Gantantra Party that sliced a crucial in the selection of chief ministers. The
wave on the ground in Telangana, its lead- chy of surprises. Chhattisgarh is the big- percentage of the Dalit-Adivasi vote away scale of victory papers over it for now, but
Karnataka earlier. What the Congress probably needs is humil-
ership concentrated most of its energies in gest one. Bhupesh Baghel wasn’t disliked from the Congress. a careful curation of leadership will be
ity and professional poll managers at the national level to harvesting that bounty. That has conclu- as chief minister, there was no anti-incum- In a largely bipartisan contest, one tends vital for its future.
function without interference to get its mojo back and stay
afloat in the general elections.
I
Ref: Plane truths making flyers weep
NDIAN equity markets are on a stronger pitch today. BJP’s (Dec 3). Prabhu Chawla’s article is apt
and timely. One aspect all of us forget is
E
victory in three states and stronger economic numbers
NCOURAGED by your response the modification of airports. In the name
released last week will raise the hope of governance continu-
to the stories of Surdas, Eknath of shopping, modernity and comfort, the
ity at the Centre, too. Share markets like political predictabil- and Tukaram, I would like to re- commuting time from the ‘arrival main gate’
ity and the state results are going to reaffirm the probability RENUKA NARAYANAN
tell the tale of Karmabai of Puri, to the ‘departure main gate’ has increased.
of the BJP remaining in power at the national level for which derives partly from the For business travellers and transit travellers,
another five years. Unless there is too big an upheaval globally, 18th century book of saints, huge airports with shopping malls are not a
the markets are set for a strong performance in the run-up Bhakta Vijaya. FAITHLINE necessity. It’s more of a bane than a boon. I
to the general elections. Karmabai lived in the early 17th century. hope the article really nudges authorities to
She had an enchanted childhood and even- received no answer that she could hear. ily. Continue being kind to all. Then see how make the necessary corrections.
The jitters in the markets over political uncertainty ahead tually her parents married her off. She devoted herself to raising Vishnu ten- you feel about life after some time.” Kamesh Sharma, email
of the 2024 elections have now metamorphosed into confidence. Life was blissful for Karmabai in her new derly as though he were a little godling. After this, it is safe to say that Karmabai
The BJP not only managed to prise Rajasthan and Chhattis- home and one day she discovered that she But one day, Vishnu swam too far and went divinely crazy. She needed to show Flying truths
garh from Congress hands, it retained Madhya Pradesh with was pregnant. When she was about three drowned in the sea. her love in a thousand little practical acts Prabhu Chawla’s article has exposed the
a clear majority. Industry and the markets have historically months along, her husband Dhunu went on This blow completely stunned Karmabai. of caring, for that had been her way her en- reality of the aviation sector, which loots
preferred the BJP over other parties partly because they some work to a nearby town but failed to Her valiant heart was finally shattered and tire life. She began to treat the little image passengers through exorbitant fares and
return. A bullock cart trailed the next day she could not stop weeping. Her neighbour as if it were a real, live baby. She bathed it provides hopeless service. The government is
believe the BJP pursues fiscally responsible policies and fa-
bearing his corpse. Dhunu had been gored suggested that she start taking in tempo- in warm water, dressed it in scraps of soft a mute spectator.
vours market reforms. The fact that the people in three states by a rogue bull and bled to death overnight. rary lodgers from the pilgrim traffic that cloth and mashed soft rice in buttermilk for A K Varma, email
rejected the Congress’s promise of cheaper cooking gas, old Karmabai’s safe little world lay in ruins. besieged holy Puri. the baby to eat. It renewed her to have some-
pension plan and other populist measures raises the markets’ “Dear Lord Jagannath, I wish to die, thing to think of beyond her daily needs. Comfortable uniforms
hope that the country would not walk the path of fiscal profli- too. But I have to live for my baby’s sake,” And this is where the legend of Karma- Ref: On identity, comfort and uniforms
gacy. The government’s policies have, so far, proved to be on she resolved, wiping away her tears. Her bai takes over. The belief goes that the Lord (Dec 3). I couldn’t agree more with the writer
in-laws were numb with shock and Karma- grew used to being pampered by Karmabai. that a necktie is a source of discomfort for
point as the economy has managed to do reasonably well and
bai discovered that she was the only active This belief comes from the emotional logic school kids. The safest and easiest option is
some of its challenges have dissipated. person in the house. that as we see God, so we receive God. Drau- to create smart uniforms sans ties.
India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, When Karmabai delivered a fine baby padi saw Krishna as her best friend. Karma- N Rama Rao, Chennai
with the GDP growing at 7.7 percent in the first half of the year. boy, her in-laws named their grandson Ra- bai saw Krishna as her own little baby and
The country’s purse is in a better shape with the fiscal deficit ghu. Sixteen happy years went by in the joy that is how she took part in God’s divine Democracy down
expected to come down to 5.7 percent by the end of 2023-24. The of motherhood. The in-laws died but Karm- nature of being all things to all people. Ref: Voter agency in assembly polls is a win
twin balance-sheet issues are behind us for now and the latest abai was now a woman used to dealing with One morning, Karmabai was a little slow for democracy (Dec 2). The ground reality
difficulties. There was enough money to in her daily chores and was late with Baby remains unchanged. Basic necessities such
macro numbers showed that private investments might finally keep her home in good repair, buy new Krishna’s breakfast. The Lord, goes the as employment, health facilities, education,
have begun to kick in. The equity markets will take faith in clothes for Deepavali and feed Raghu well. story, began to feel ‘hungry’. This was his safety and security are not in a desirable
these and also in the fact that foreign portfolio investors may A strong, pure happiness filled Karma- lila or the games he played with devotees. state. The perfunctory attitude of elected
have to come back to gain from the country’s strong economic bai’s days again, and she thanked Lord So, he whispered to a priest at Jagannath’s representatives across parties continues.
performance. The slowing down of China makes India an even Jagannath for it. She found the ideal bride temple, “Tell Karmabai to feed me.” There is no resolve and vision to achieve
more attractive investment destination. The markets had start- for Raghu in Lakshmi, a girl with a sunny, Being a staunch devotee, the priest took the aspirations of the citizenry and usher in
EXPRESS
cheerful nature. Karmabai made a daugh- the message seriously as the Lord’s com- development and prosperity. Instead, petty
ed showing an upbeat mood even ahead of the state election
ter of her and was well repaid with obliging mand, and proceeded to Karmabai’s house, welfarism prevails. This is the utter defeat of
results. The Nifty has already regained the 2,000 levels. In the and affectionate behaviour. gathering an ever-ready crowd as he went. the intended goal of democracy.
next few months, both the Nifty and Sensex would be looking When Lakshmi discovered that she Karmabai’s life was blissful in her “Karmabai! Why have you not fed the A M Chakravarty, Hyderabad
at crossing a few more milestones. was pregnant, Karmabai floated on her in-laws’ home. But one day when Lord yet?” he demanded to know as soon
feet with joy. But their happiness was as he entered. Greatly surprised that he Vaishali’s victory
she was three months pregnant,
doomed. One terrible afternoon, Raghu knew, Karmabai rushed to make the Lord’s Ref: Grand achievement (Dec 3). That both
Q U I C K TA K E was brought in dead with his neck broken. tragedy hit: a bullock cart trailed plate ready. To the disbelief and joy of eve- brother and sister have achieved the title
He was a carpenter and had fallen from a in bearing her husband’s corpse ryone there, the buttermilk and rice slowly of Grandmaster is a first in chess. Vaishali
HEED THE SILENT WAR TOO high roof beam. Raghu’s death shattered
Karmabai’s life all over again. But who Lodgers began to arrive in ones and twos
vanished bit by bit from the plate. A great
cheer broke out and crying ‘Joi Jagannath!’
has come out of the shadow of her famous
brother. Kudos to the parents, who gave it
W
HILE the world rants about death and displacement in would look after Lakshmi if she failed her? and one week, a band of saintly Vaishnava everyone fell at Karmabai’s feet. She be- their all despite hailing from a very humble
Gaza, two silent scourges are ravaging the entire occupied Lakshmi, lost in grief, lacked no attention travellers arrived. After dinner, the leader came a saint that very moment. Even today, background. The siblings’ success story is an
that a caring, loving mother could provide. looked compassionately at Karmabai. the annual Rath Yatra or chariot proces- inspiration to young children across India.
Palestinian territories. The WHO now estimates that dis- When a grandson arrived, they named him “What troubles you, daughter?” he asked sion of the Lord stops at Karmabai’s me- Bal Govind, Noida
eases may eventually kill more Palestinians than bombs. Lack ‘Vishnu’ in honour of Lord Jagannath. in a gentle voice. morial in respect.
of clean drinking water and tonnes of rubble everywhere are Karmabai’s love for lost Dhunu and Karmabai’s composure shattered at his What of Karmabai, though? The miracle Respect others
playing havoc with the health of Palestinian kids, who make up Raghu lent even greater fervour to every kind tone. She poured out her tragic tale, of the Lord’s love as made outwardly known Ref: Money does not make one better
half of Gaza’s population. Meanwhile, the ILO says that almost motherly thing she did for Vishnu. But choking on sobs. “Daughter, you are a brave, was a great thing. But it was the inner mira- (Dec 3). This is an eye-opener to people
400,000 Palestinians in the West Bank have lost their jobs, as Lakshmi went into a catastrophic decline good woman. Now trust in God to show you cle of overcoming devastating loss through who have haughty tempers due to their
from grief and passed away one chilly the way forward,” said the leader. He took the habit of love that Karmabai cherished. social and financial status. Writer Sathya
Israel has restricted cash transfers to the Palestinian Authority
monsoon night. Karmabai was back against out a small image of Krishna as the baby She spent her remaining years doing good Saran, through a simple incident, brings out
while it pursues collective punishment of the entire population. the wall again with a baby to bring up by butter-thief, from his cloth bag. deeds for the pilgrim community and died the necessity of treating everybody equally
India and Arab nations that have already sent some humanitar- herself. “Oh Lord Jagannath, when will you “Treat this image as your child, and serve peacefully at a ripe old age. irrespective of status.
ian help need to increase their efforts manifold right now. stop testing me?” she cried in anguish but the Lord as devotedly as you did your fam- ([email protected]) Jayaraman, Chalakudi
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strongly. But from that first brief- American interests (often at External Affairs Minister, S peaceniks in the Indo-Pak
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&KKDWWLVJDUKSRVLWLRQVLWDVDIRUPLGDEOHFRQWHQGHULQWKHJHQHUDOHOHFWLRQV+RZHYHU idealists or even the fainthearted. Washington DC would con- possible to state earlier, “This ting Israel-Arab Sheikhdoms,
The names of Machiavelli to duct diplomacy, thereafter. is a time for us to engage all from the playbook of
LWLVLPSRUWDQWWRDFNQRZOHGJHWKHIOXLGLW\RI,QGLDQSROLWLFVZKHUHODVWPLQXWH Metternich are synonymous with Kissinger can claim to have America, manage China, cul- Kissinger’s school of diploma-
GHYHORSPHQWVORFDOLVVXHVDOOLDQFHVDQGFKDQJLQJG\QDPLFVFDQVLJQLILFDQWO\ statecraft which naturally entails singularly introduced the 19th tivate Europe, reassure Russia, cy.
LPSDFWWKHRXWFRPH7KH&RQJUHVVEXR\HGE\LWVYLFWRU\LQ7HODQJDQDPD\DLP a ruthless pursuit of self-interest, Century German neologism of bring Japan into play, draw While history will judge Henry
WRFRQVROLGDWHLWVSRVLWLRQLQRWKHU6WDWHVZLWKDVLPLODUVWUDWHJ\7KHUHVXOWVLQ that can readily compromise realpolitik, in diplomatic par- neighbours in, extend the Kissinger’s many accomplish-
which publicly maintained façade lance and practice. If any- 0BC743458=8C8E4 neighbourhood, and expand ments and misdemeanours at
5DMDVWKDQ0DGK\D3UDGHVK&KKDWWLVJDUKDQG7HODQJDQDSDLQWDQXDQFHGSLFWXUH
RI,QGLDQSROLWLFV$VWKHQDWLRQZDLWVIRUWKHJHQHUDOHOHFWLRQVSROLWLFDOSDU
of values. Even the doyen of
Indian treatise on politics and
thing, it eased up the untenable
stodginess of ideology or ide-
²2>;3F0AA8>A³8= traditional constituencies of
support.” Contradictory at one
ease and with the benefit of
reflection, the art and science
WLHVPXVWFDUHIXOO\FKDONRXWWKHLUVWUDWHJLHVWDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWWKHGLYHUVHVRFLR statecraft i.e., Chanakya realisti- alism, in favour of considera- C744GCA4<4 level, given the ambition of of diplomacy (both moral and
SROLWLFDOODQGVFDSHVDFURVV6WDWHV7KHVHUHVXOWVVHUYHDVDFUXFLDOEDURPHWHU cally noted, “There is some self- tions based on realism, prac- keeping equations with otherwise) has lost an ace
interest behind every friendship. ticality and situational possi- 5A44I4>5C742>;3 America and Russia in the practitioner and innovator, of
RIIHULQJDQLQVLJKWLQWRYRWHUSUHIHUHQFHVUHJLRQDOG\QDPLFVDQGWKHFKDOOHQJHV
DQGRSSRUWXQLWLHVLQWKHXSFRPLQJ/RN6DEKDHOHFWLRQV%XWWKH*HQHUDOHOHFWLRLQV
There is no friendship with self-
interests. This is a bitter truth”.
bilities – which optimized the
draw of hand to still deliver the
F0A4A0 same breath, whilst the back-
drop of the Ukraine War
the same. Another priceless
lesson that he leaves for pos-
DUHVWLOPRQWKVDZD\DQGWKDWLVDORQJWLPHLQ,QGLDQSROLWLFV Naturally, the extent of moral most agreeable solution, given :8BB8=64A ensued, a clear reflection of terity, even though he alluded
compromises, leniencies and even the situation. Many partook practicality triumphing bina- to his own country, yet applic-
suppressions done by realpolitik like Zbigniew ?4AB>=85843 rism, in an ode to principals of able to all major powers is,
?82D1<; Superpowers in their quest to
assert their geopolitical agendas
Brzezinski, Lee Kuan Yew,
Deng Xiaoping to even Xi
2>=CA0382C8>=B realpolitik as popularised by
Kissinger.
“America has no permanent
friends or enemies, only inter-
and interests, is even more pro- Jingping, but Kissinger is syn- 14CF44==>1;4 Another attributed facet of ests”. As India meanders and
nounced. onymous with realpolitik. modern-day diplomacy to navigates its rise in global rel-
As the definitive ‘Cold Warrior’ To that extent, it birthed sub- A74C>A82F8C7 Henry Kissinger was the evance and animus simultane-
in the extreme freeze of the Cold
War era, Kissinger personified
sequent concepts like ‘Strategic
Ambiguity’, which implied
1ADC0; decidedly more moral role of
‘back-channeler’ amongst the
ously, it would do well to
mull over and keep pace with
contradictions between noble remaining deliberately <0=8?D;0C8>=0=3 seemingly intractable stake- the evolving nature of diplo-
rhetoric with brutal manipulation ambiguous towards opera- holders. Kissinger had famous- macy. In the end, Kissinger got
and opportunism, to further the tional and positional policies >??>ACD=8B< ly flown secretly to China in away with much to answer for
interests of the United States of e.g., the implied commitment July 1971 to restore and repair as his fellow Jew, Senator
America. Subcontinental memo- of the United States towards relations with America, some- Bernie Sanders once said, “I
ries are understandably rife with Taiwan, despite maintaining thing he did yet again, just a am proud to say that Henry
the wounds of deliberate indiffer- the ‘One China’ position. Even few months back at the ripe Kissinger is not my friend”, and
ence, uncouth behaviour, and the much bandied ‘Strategic age of 100 years to meet Xi so went Henry Kissinger.
even a clear tilt in favour of the Independence/Autonomy’ Jinping. ‘Back channels’ is an (The writer is a military vet-
oppressor (read, Pakistan) during deployed by India in recent oft-deployed tact that is fre- eran, is a former Lt Governor
the genocidal birth of Bangladesh times owes itself to the foun- quently invoked by conflicting of Andaman & Nicobar
– part of a far larger legacy of dational principle of realpoli- countries, to avoid getting the Islands and Puducherry.
amorality that routinely manifest- tik, as it allows the practition- engagement getting derailed Views are personal)
E
the houses of the accused and even jour- PXbWP[X ?aPVVP]P]P]SWPP F^a[Sb UXabc
nalists in the name of investigation. Qa^cWTabXbcTa6aP]S\PbcTabSd^FT
H US State Secretary
during the Richard
Nixon and Gerald Ford era,
ried about our policies, it
must give some assurances,
other than rhetoric, that it
ed Baby John, a leader of the
RSP to negotiate with the
League leadership to some-
ernment to make guidelines regarding the
confiscation of personal digital devices
and has also stressed that the profession-
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who breathed his last on will not act in collusion how avoid the break up in al interests of journalists should be kept 3a^]PeP[[X7PaXZP:dS^bc^cWTXa_PaT]cbfW^
Wednesday at the age of with the Soviet Union and the outfit. Baby John, whose in mind. VPeTXcP[[STb_XcTR^\X]VUa^\PeTah_^^a
100, was a popular person that it will not cooperate in RSP was an ally of the On the other hand, due to the use of AI, P]SWd\Q[TQPRZVa^d]SBdRRTbbbc^ah^UbXQ
in Kerala though he had an attack on Pakistan,” said Congress, reached our privacy is being destroyed within [X]Vb EPXbWP[X P]S ?aPVV]P]P]SWPP Xb cadT
nothing to do with the State Kissinger (Henry Kissinger: Parappanangadi in minutes and crime is also being encour- X]b_XaPcX^]c^cW^dbP]Sb^Uh^d]VRWX[SaT]X]
and has not visited this part For The Record). Malappuram district, to aged. Recently, a picture of an actress cre- ^daR^d]cahc^cPZTd_cWXb\X]Sb_^ac
of the country even once in Kissinger is also known as broker peace between the ated with a deepfake went viral. AI is Bal Govind | Noida
his lifetime. the person who pointed out warring factions. The CPI- going to make a big contribution to pub-
Kissinger, who is credited the folly behind the Non- M which was in the oppo- lic welfare, especially in education, health,
with a new style and art of Aligned Movement, which sition, wanted the Muslim agriculture and other production efforts, accused's mother locked the main gate inmates with little provision for ensuring
diplomacy reigned supreme he termed as a means to League to split so that the but ways will have to be found to avoid and he raped my daughter at night. their health and hygiene. The plight of
during the peak of the Cold strengthen the hegemony of former would get the sup- the destructive effects of its misuse. Meanwhile, I kept searching for her the women and children is excruciating.
War and was known as one ests. Full credit should be the then Soviet Union. port of the breakaway fac- Anyway, every new technology is a dou- whole night. My daughter managed to Delay in trials has overburdened prisons
of the architects of the US- given to Henry Kissinger for There was no denying his tion. Baby John’s brief was to ble-edged sword. A conscious society escape from captivity on November 30 and courts. In the USA, 20% of the pris-
China ties through Ping- his farsightedness and hatred for socialism and somehow prevent the split avoids its ill effects and accepts it. Themorning, when the accused was sleeping. oners are undertrials compared to a
Pong (Chinese term for the visionary-like forecasts. It communism. The Kerala and keep the leadership in government will also have to keep priva- She reached home and told me about her whopping 60% in India.
game of table tennis). The was Kissinger who warned media, which was quick in good humour. The day after cy in mind while confiscating such ordeal. Then I approached the police with Stress on technology is the right way to
diplomatic ties between US the world about the reacting to international Baby John landed at devices. her. This sort of accident occurs from go. The new Act should decongest pris-
and China got a shot in the impending Islamic funda- developments, especially in Malappuram, CPI-M N Ashraf | Mumbai time to time somewhere. Therefore, the ons; the rest will fall in line. Segregation
arm with the Ping-Pong mentalism and terrorism singing paeans to mouthpiece had this head- police must strictly look into this kind of of prisoners based on the gravity of the
games between the two which would upset peace in Communism and comrades line as the lead news: D1;5CDB93D13D9?> accident and punish such exemplary pun- crime, like first-time offence, is an excel-
countries and this paved the Asia and cause damage to in the USSR and China “Kerala Kissinger in Sir — A 15- year-old girl was allegedly ishment so other people can get lessons. lent idea. So are the proposals to intro-
way for the 1972 State visit India. portrayed Kissinger as a Parappanangadi to broker raped by her neighbour after holding her Jahangir Shaikh | Mumbai duce parole, furlough and remission to
to China by President While addressing the Davos villain. The party cadre, peace in Muslim League”. hostage in his house in the Pataudi area undertrials because emotional stability
Nixon. Symposium on 31 January despite their ignorance But Kerala Kissinger, despite with the help of his mother on November @B9C?>CB56?B= can go a long way. Since legal knowledge
The former State Secretary 1980, Kissinger said: “The about the stance of all his charming manners, 29 but came to light on Friday when the Sir — The Prisons Act, 1894 focused and assistance are hard to come by, con-
was known for his talents to problem of India has the Kissinger viz-a-viz the failed in the mission and the victim's mother lodged a complaint at more on retribution and less on reform. cessions and incentives to prisoners are
make any unfriendly coun- component that, for India, socialist countries, did not League was split vertically, women's police station, Manesar. So, the Home Ministry's finalisation of most welcome. Special courts and
tries the friends of the US. the existence of a strong, waste even a single oppor- though only for a brief peri- According to the complaint filed by the the "Model Prisons Act, 2023", is just and increasing the lawyers-to-prisoners ratio
For him there were no per- fundamentalist, Islamic tunity to taunt and ridicule od. mother, her 15-year-old married daugh- reasonable. The provisions of the new to hasten legal aid can also be considered.
manent friends or enemies state presents problems of the Nobel laureate. (The writer is a special ter is living with her. On November 29, Act place emphasis on reform and reha- Ganapathi Bhat | Akola
but only permanent inter- its own internal cohesion When the Muslim League correspondent with the the girl was passing through the house of bilitation. India has the third highest
ests, that was the US com- and may create its own was split in the early 1970s, Pioneer, the views the accused when he called her inside his undertrial population in Asia. Most of BT]Shh^daUUTTSQPRZcc^)
mercial and strategic inter- incentives for war. On the the then Congress strong- are personal) house, the mother said. After this, the the country's jails are packed with [TccTabc^_X^]TTa/V\PX[R^\
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ith the advent of Learning, Natural Language the task of finding missing and conversation between the enu- For example, it could describe Image data is still a relatively AI in organisations is bringing
W intuitive machine
coherent processes
like intelligence, recognition,
Processing, Large Language
Models, Cognitive Computing,
etc. The usage also is of vary-
problematic data and imputa-
tion i.e. task of altering incor-
rect values and inserting miss-
merator and the respondent
which will go a long way in
resolving the language barrier
an individual's occupation or
the economic activity of the
company described in an
new type of data for statistical
organisations but there is a
growing need for exploring
together the required skills as
AI requires people from
Domain, Computer Science
enlightenment, systematic ing kinds depending on the ing values can be done in a faced by our data warriors in administrative business regis- how image data can be used and Statistics; all working
enquiry, and resolution con- field in which it is applied. One much faster manner by apply- the field. Further, the multi- ter. With the increasing use of for the production of statistics. together on a project together
nected with evolution in data of the tools of governance, the ing the ML models. Another modal bots with the capacity new data sources, the text These models could associate for its meaningful use.
collection, and accumulation, Official Statistical System is a possible use of AI could be the to read images would be of data that statistical organisa- the variables of interest (e.g., The alignment of AI use cases
rational investigations, and field where the calling has been use of a Large Language great help as they would be tions might work with could building type, land cover type) with the vision of the organi-
computer processing power, B?89D170A3F09 there to embrace but the hand- model-based Chatbot in the able to give immediate clarifi- also include product descrip- with the images in the training sation is the most important
AI provides occasions to com- shake is yet to take place. data collection process. This cation to the enumerator in tions scraped from the inter- data set and classify new aspect of the adoption of AI.
panionship and addition to The collection of data is one of Chatbot like Chat GPT would case confusion regarding def- net or text posts obtained images with reasonable levels The development of AI should
human intelligence and the most important ingredi- assist in providing information inition arises while collecting from social media platforms of accuracy. Automation (or not be an ad-hoc process but
enhances how the people lead ents of Official Statistics. The instantly to the enumerator data. such as Twitter. The aim of partial automation) of these a part of a well-thought-out
their work and life. Collection of data is done from the fieldwork manual. It Another potential use of AI, classification and coding in tasks can allow a large volume strategy which has the support
In 2018, NITI Aayog devel- mostly through Census would save them from the especially ML could be the this scenario could be to clas- of information in the image of the top management and
oped a National Strategy for Surveys and as a by-product of trouble of going through the classification and coding of sify the descriptions into inter- data to be processed in a reli- confidence of all stakeholders
Artificial Intelligence namely, administrative action like data voluminous documents time Textual Data for official statis- national or corporate statisti- able and fast way. The cost of as a tool for reducing their bur-
# AI for All. This strategy aims @1>;1:;@ generated as part of tax collec- and again which leads to tics. In the context of the cod- cal classification systems, such deployment including the den rather than replacing them
to ensure the safe and respon- B7A4H0B:0A tion exercise. While undertak- drudgery and monotony in the ing and classification work in as Standard Industrial computation required is one of or their work.
sible use of AI. It also focuses ing Census and Surveys, one fieldwork. Another use case in statistical organisations, the Classification (SIC), and the major factors affecting the (The writers are Dy Director
on how India can leverage AI of the biggest problems faced a country like ours which has given set is typically a text or Standard Occupational deployment of AI in an organ- Generals in the Ministry of
for social inclusion and eco- is data quality and non- more than twenty Official lan- narrative provided by the Classification (SOC) for easy isation. The other main chal- Statistics & Programme
nomic growth. The field of AI response which leads to miss- guages could be an AI-based respondent from a survey or understanding and quick lenge facing statistical organ- Implementation,
is vast which includes Machine ing data. With the help of AI, utility that helps in two-way administrative data source. analysis. isations to advance the use of views are personal)