US Asia-Pacific Policy - QUAD, AUKUS and US-India Strategic Partnership Muhammad Yasir, Ahmad Aziz, Maaz Ahmad, Laiba Kiyani and Muhammad Farazdaq
US Asia-Pacific Policy - QUAD, AUKUS and US-India Strategic Partnership Muhammad Yasir, Ahmad Aziz, Maaz Ahmad, Laiba Kiyani and Muhammad Farazdaq
US Asia-Pacific Policy - QUAD, AUKUS and US-India Strategic Partnership Muhammad Yasir, Ahmad Aziz, Maaz Ahmad, Laiba Kiyani and Muhammad Farazdaq
Muhammad Yasir, Ahmad Aziz, Maaz Ahmad, Laiba Kiyani and Muhammad Farazdaq
Emerging Trends
The balance of economic power in the region continues to shift. By 2030, many
economists predict that China will overtake the United States to become the world’s largest
economy in nominal terms. By the same date, some predict that India might displace Japan as
the third largest. The economic and, to a lesser extent, military rise of India exacerbates
national security fears in Pakistan and is being monitored warily in Beijing.
China is increasingly asserting influence through regional economic and financial
initiatives. It is championing its “Belt and Road initiative” (BRI), an effort to boost infrastructure
development and economic connectivity—and expand China’s influence—among more than 65
countries on three continents. The most prominent BRI project, the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor, could comprise up to $62 billion in investment. China is also promoting the Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a proposed regional trade agreement that does
not include the United States. In 2015, China launched a new development bank, the Asia
Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB); membership includes 14 G-20 members.
In 2016 and 2017, North Korea conducted scores of missile tests and three nuclear
weapons tests, demonstrating it may be close if not already capable of striking the continental
United States with a nuclear armed ballistic missile. After a period of hostile statements in
2017, the Trump Administration in 2018 has pursued a diplomatic solution to denuclearize
North Korea. A U.S.-North Korea summit, as well as three inter-Korean summits, have eased
tensions and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has publicly stated that he will “work toward
complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” but progress toward resolution has
remained elusive. Meanwhile, U.S. alliances with South Korea and Japan face strains as U.S.
priorities diverge from Seoul’s and Tokyo’s top concerns.
Military spending in the region is rising, with China seeking greater power projection
capabilities and other nations seeking to enhance their security amid questions about the
future U.S. role in the region. In 2017, China was the world’s second-largest defense spender
after the United States, and India was number five. Several Southeast Asian nations have
increased defense budgets.
Rivalry between China and India appears to be intensifying, especially in the Indian
Ocean region, raising the possibility of greater regional instability. The world’s two most
populous states also share the world’s longest disputed land border and have divergent views
on Pakistan and Tibet.
Following the U.S. withdrawal from the proposed TPP, Asian countries have been
negotiating new regional trade agreements, including RCEP, that exclude the United States.
Many say these agreements could put U.S. companies at a competitive disadvantage. In 2018,
Japan and the European Union signed a new FTA, and Japan led the remaining 11 TPP countries
to finish a new agreement that goes into effect on December 30, 2018, for some members. In
September 2018, the United States and Japan agreed to open limited trade negotiations.
Climate change may increasingly play a role in regional security as natural disasters and
rising seas displace people and damage economies, particularly in Southeast Asia, or as the
opening of an Arctic sea lane changes trade patterns. Select Issues for Congress Questions for
Congress may include whether the Administration’s budget submission supports its FOIP
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strategy, how to weigh in on trade policy, and what role Congress should play in defining U.S.
goals in the region.
China
The Administration’s National Security Strategy describes both China and Russia as
seeking to “challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American
security and prosperity.” A summary of the U.S. National Defense Strategy released in January
2018 describes China as a “strategic competitor” that is pursuing a military modernization
program that “seeks Indo-Pacific regional hegemony in the near-term and displacement of the
United States to achieve global preeminence in the future.” Congress may consider whether
China is indeed seeking to establish control over strategically and economically important seas,
as well as what U.S. policy should be toward RCEP, the AIIB, and the BRI. Is China a “revisionist”
power, as the Trump Administration asserts, and if so, what might that mean for U.S. interests
in Asia and globally? How should the United States consider Beijing’s human rights record as it
shapes policy toward China? Without U.S. leadership, what would future political, economic,
and security multilateral organizations look like, and what would be the U.S. place in them?
What would be the impact on U.S. defense strategy, plans, programs, and spending? U.S.
Alliances the Trump Administration’s 2017 National Security Strategy reaffirms the centrality
and vitality of U.S. alliances in Asia, and public statements by heads of state underscore the
strength of the bilateral agreements. However, observers point to gaps in coordination and
contentious negotiations over burden-sharing as signs of emerging divisions among the allies.
Trump’s unilateral cancellation of major U.S.-South Korean exercises has reduced U.S.-South
Korean security cooperation, and Japan has expressed anxiety that its core national interests—
including trade priorities and doubts about North Korea— are being marginalized by U.S. policy.
Congress may consider how best to secure U.S. interests and values in the region, or whether
the price to protect U.S. security interests in Asia is too high. Should the United States
encourage its allies to take a more independent approach to their defense? Congress also could
probe whether the Trump Administration is doing enough to support U.S. allies and partners in
the region. North Korea Potential issues for Congress include whether to support or impose
conditions on the Administration’s diplomacy with North Korea. Despite Kim’s statement
supporting conditional denuclearization and his cessation of nuclear and missile tests, many
analysts have expressed concern that North Korea has benefited from the diplomatic process
without providing concrete concessions in return. Congress can explore whether to limit or
expand the President’s ability to ease, waive, and/or lift sanctions previously passed by
Congress. Congress may also pressure the Administration to include North Korean human rights
abuses in denuclearization negotiations. South Asia Congress may also wish to consider how the
U.S. government should approach the India-Pakistan-China strategic triangle. Should
Washington seek to “balance” its ties with India and Pakistan? Should the United States
undertake new efforts to mediate or otherwise address the India-Pakistan dispute in Kashmir?
Should recently accelerated development of the U.S.-India “strategic partnership” perhaps
include a new level of defense cooperation and technology sharing? How will New Delhi’s
generally friendly relations with Russia and Iran affect this effort? If they are affected, how
should U.S. policy be recalibrated? With U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan drastically decreased,
should Washington rethink its post9/11 alliance with Pakistan, given considerable congressional
frustrations with Islamabad’s counterterrorism efforts?
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JAPAN
The U.S. and Japan's alliance are seen as "an anchor of the U.S. security role in Asia" and
"one of the most significant military relationships in the region." More than any other nation,
the U.S. has more than 80 military installations in Japan and more than 60,000 personnel
deployed there. Due to China's rising assertiveness, notably its nautical activity in disputed
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territory, and North Korea's missile and nuclear tests, this relationship has taken on greater
importance in recent years.
INDIA
Due to China's growth, U.S. relations with India are also becoming more significant.
India and Japan made a commitment to "intensify defense ties and push for greater
cooperation with Australia and the United States as they seek to counter growing Chinese
influence throughout Asia" beginning in 2017. Additionally, in an attempt to counter China's
expanding geopolitical and economic power through its Belt and Road Initiative, the United
States, India, and Japan have struck infrastructural agreements.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Southeast Asian nations Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and
Vietnam, all of which have maritime claim territories, are enraged by China's actions in the
South China Sea. Based on the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea, the United States supports
the freedom of navigation of these claimant countries. With defense partners like Australia, the
U.S. has escalated its military and naval presence in the area, including freedom of navigation
operations.
CHALLENGES
The two greatest dangers to American interests in the Asia Pacific area as well as the
nation are North Korea and China. Despite the fact that both nations are nuclear powers, the
United States rarely interacts with them. China is one of the U.S.'s main trading partners,
although there is no diplomatic or official economic engagement between the U.S. and North
Korea.
NUCLEAR THREAT
NORTH KOREA:
In addition to possessing illicit nuclear weapons, North Korea repeatedly violated the
global Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) until leaving the pact in 2003. Despite persistent criticism
and penalties from the international world, the regime continues to develop and test nuclear
weapons.
From 2006 to 2017, the North Korean government conducted six nuclear tests, as well
as its first-ever launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile in July 2017. North Korea is still
conducting intercontinental, hypersonic, and short-range missile tests, according to the 2022
Annual Threat Assessment. Most observers believe North Korea has between 20 and 60
warheads on its arsenal.
CHINA:
ECONOMIC RELATION AND AGGRESSION
The United States' main trading partner is China, who reclaimed this position in late
2021 following trade hostilities that began in 2018. 15% of all-American overseas trade is with
China.
China continues to have the largest economy in the world, and since the 1970s, it has
transitioned from a closed, centrally planned economy to one that is more market-oriented and
plays a significant global role, although it "continues to pursue an industrial policy, state-
support of key sectors, and a restrictive investment regime," according to the CIA World
Factbook.
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The scope of China's economic objectives extends well beyond its boundaries. China's
"Belt and Road Initiative, reminiscent of the Silk Road, is a massive infrastructure project that
would stretch from East Asia to Europe." It was introduced in 2013.
The Council on Foreign Relations, or CFR, explains that aid also takes advantage of
developing countries' need for "inexpensive, high-quality technology to expand wireless phone
networks and broadband internet coverage" and "goes towards improving recipients'
telecommunications networks, artificial intelligence capabilities, cloud computing, e-commerce
and mobile payment system" in addition to infrastructure projects like hydropower dams, oil
and gas pipelines, and railway networks.
coalition can also help India to combat the humanitarian crises like tropical cyclones, Typhoons.
This group can also work for monitoring and shipping vessels for search and rescue or anti-
piracy operations. QUAD can also provide infrastructure assistance to climatically vulnerable
states during cyclone. India is located right at the center of the Indo pacific geopolitical region.
Four countries led a foreign minister conference in japan on October 6 th 2020 followed by India
and us on October 26 and 27 2020in new delhij.as the result the Malabar exercises began on
November 3-6.it was the three-day joint naval exercise for the four countries in the Bay of
Bengal. The second phase will be held from 17 to 20 November in Arabian sea.
Quad silence on Taiwan Issue
1. United States President Joe Biden's Statement
"United States is bound to come to Taiwan's defense"
2. Quad partners have different stakes on Taiwan Issue
3. Japan has biggest risk given to its proximity to Taiwan and alliance United States
4. Many in Tokyo seemed to welcome U.S. clarity;
it remains to be seen whether Australia shares that view.
5. India would most likely avoid risking its security interests with any engagement on the
Taiwan issue.
6. China noted its displeasure about Japan's role in the Quad.
7. In a video call on May 18,
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned his counterpart, Hayashi Yoshimasa
Japan should not align itself with the United States and others in ways that could
damage Chinese "sovereignty, security and interests.
Quad meeting Day
Quad summit hosted by Japan in May 2022, the leaders of the United States, Australia,
India, and Japan reemphasized the principles of a free and open Indo-Pacific:
1. freedom
2. rule of law
3. Democratic values
4. sovereignty
5. territorial integrity
The meeting also appeared to reinforce a central purpose of the Quad-to provide the
region with public goods.
Pandemic Assistance by Quad
COVAX initiative by Quad partners and they contributed $ 5.2 billion
40% of the total government donations received by the global vaccines
• They delivered 670 million vaccine doses of which 265 countries were Indo-Pacific
Initiatives by Quad
• Quad fellowship for Stem research.
• Indo-Pacific partnership for Maritime Domain awareness by improving technology and
training which:
1. Aims to combat illegal fishing
2. To respond to humanitarian and natural disasters
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Australian, United Kingdom, and United States. These three nations' accord calls for
consultations to start so that Australia can get nuclear-powered but non-nuclear-armed
submarines. This section of the agreement's initial scoping phase will take 18 months to
complete. The three countries would collaborate on the development of Australia's nuclear-
powered submarines with an emphasis on interoperability, shared interests, and mutual gain. A
proposal for additional cooperation to "enhance our joint capabilities and interoperability" is
also announced in the announcement. The initial emphasis of these will be on cyber
capabilities, artificial intelligence.
International Reaction
CHINA’S REACTION
AUKUS "has seriously undermined regional peace and stability," according to China.
Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for China's foreign ministry, continued by saying that the declaration
has "intensified the weapons race and weakened international "non-proliferation efforts" China
charged the three nations with having "Cold War mentalities" and applying "double standards"
to nuclear non-proliferation. The UK was encouraged by a representative of the Chinese
Embassy in London to "take concrete actions to uphold the international nuclear non-
proliferation regime and avoid any action that would increase tension in the Asia Pacific region
or compromise the peace and stability in the region."
INDIA’S REACTION
Tanvi Madan of the US-based Brookings Institution said AUKUS is likely to be seen
favorably by India in light of Delhi's relative silence over it. According to Madan, India is
extremely concerned about Chinese behavior and intentions. Additionally, AUKUS is a
reaffirmation of the partner countries' commitment to the area.
FRANCE SAYS AUKUS IS A “STAB IN THE BACK”
France's response was one of rage. Jean-Yves Le Drian, France's foreign minister, called
the AUKUS agreement a "stab in the back." The announcement, according to Mr. Le Drian,
represents "inappropriate behavior among allies and French diplomats were recalled from
Washington and Canberra in reaction. Florence Parly, France's minister of defence, also
postponed a meeting with Ben Wallace, the UK's secretary of defence. Le Drian responded that
the UK's participation in the deal was "opportunistic" and referred to it as "the fifth wheel on
the wagon" when asked why France had not summoned its ambassador to the UK. The French
state owns the bulk of Naval Group, the French firm hired to construct Australia's conventional-
powered submarines in a $36.2 billion deal. The loss of the deal, therefore, has direct financial
consequences for the French Government. Naval Group’s Chief Executive has said that they will
seek repayment from Australia of “every cost that we incurred and every cost related to the
demobilization”
Macron and Biden talk:
President Biden and President Macron spoke on the phone about the arrangement a
week after it was announced. The two leaders concurred that the situation would have
benefited from open communication, according to a readout following the call. discussions
between allies regarding issues of strategic importance to France and our European partners. In
an effort to foster confidence, they also promised to "open a process of in-depth
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consultations." Asked a few weeks after the call if he was now confident that Mr. Biden
recognized France’s importance as an ally, Mr. Macron replied “we will see”.
Europe union Reaction:
"One of our member states has been treated in a way that is not acceptable, so we want
to know what happened and why," EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen asked in an
interview of Australia. Josep Borrell Fontelles, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs,
wrote that: Reactions were not just about a deal on submarines that did not go through, but
about the wider ramifications for EU-US relations and the EU’s role in the Indo-Pacific. The lack
of consultations and communication between the close partners that we are, created real
difficulties. It provided a negative image of an uncoordinated or even divided West, where we
should show common resolve and coordination, not least as regards geostrategic challenges.
What does it mean for UK?
For the UK, AUKUS reflects the UK’s intention to tilt to the Indo-Pacific, as outlined in
the Integrated review of security, defence development and foreign policy. The tilt is necessary,
the Government says, because the region is “critical to our economy, our security and our
global ambition to support open societies.”38 Prime Minister Boris Johnson told MPs the
partnership demonstrates “Britain’s generational commitment to the security of the
IndoPacific” and how the UK can help Australia “preserve regional stability.”39 A senior White
House official described UK involvement in AUKUS as a “down payment” on their effort to
engage more deeply with the Indo-Pacific.
It ties the UK, US and Australia together in a decades long submarine programmed,
something the Prime Minister described as one of the “great prizes” of the deal. The UK
National Security Advisor, Sir Stephen Lovegrove, described it as “perhaps the most significant
capability collaboration anywhere in the world in the past six decades.”
What does it mean for Australia?
AUKUS has significant implications for Australia. One of the key outcomes is Australia's
decision to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, a major shift from its previous plan to
purchase conventionally powered submarines from France. This move reflects Australia's desire
to strengthen its defense capabilities and enhance its strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific
region.
The pact has also deepened Australia's security partnership with the United States and
the United Kingdom. It provides Australia with closer military ties, intelligence sharing, and
technological collaboration with two of its key allies. This cooperation is expected to bolster
Australia's deterrence capabilities and contribute to regional stability.
WHAT DOES IT MEANS FOR US?
A senior Biden Administration official said it: Reflects the Biden administration’s
determination to build stronger partnerships to sustain peace and stability across the entire
Indo Pacific region. This new architecture is really about deepening cooperation on a range of
defense capabilities for the 21st century.
President Trump focused US foreign policy on countering the threat from China. His
administration’s 2018 National Defense Strategy was clear that China was a “strategic
competitor”, that is “leveraging military modernization, influence operations, and predatory
economics to coerce neighboring countries to reorder the Indo-Pacific region to their
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advantage”. While the strategy advocated deepening partnerships in the region, critics say his
administration did little in this regard.
challenges that need to be addressed. Tarapore highlights bureaucratic obstacles and the slow
pace of defense procurement processes in India, which hinder effective collaboration.
Streamlining defense procurement, ensuring transparency, and simplifying export control
regulations are crucial steps towards strengthening defense cooperation.
Gul et al. shed light on India's historical policy of non-alignment and its commitment to
strategic autonomy. While India seeks to deepen its partnership with the United States, it is
careful to preserve its independence and maintain a balanced approach in its strategic
engagements. Balancing various strategic partnerships, including those with Russia and other
non-Western powers, is crucial for India's foreign policy. Striking the right balance between
strategic autonomy and close alignment with the United States will be crucial for the long-term
sustainability of the partnership.
Future Prospects of the US-India Strategic Partnership
Despite the challenges, the future of the US-India strategic partnership holds immense
potential for further growth and cooperation. Lalwani and Byrne suggest that both countries
should focus on realistic and achievable goals rather than pursuing overly ambitious objectives.
This pragmatic approach will help build trust and confidence between the two nations,
fostering a more resilient partnership.
Joshi argues that as the United States pivots towards Asia, India's role in regional
security becomes increasingly important. The convergence of strategic interests, particularly in
the Indo-Pacific region, opens avenues for closer cooperation and coordination between the
two nations. Addressing concerns and aligning policies on regional security challenges, such as
China's assertiveness, will be key to realizing the full potential of the partnership.
In conclusion, the US-India strategic partnership offers significant opportunities for
collaboration in various domains. By leveraging their respective strengths, the United States
and India can address common challenges, deepen economic ties, and contribute to regional
stability. However, challenges such as divergent perspectives, bureaucratic obstacles, and
India's commitment to strategic autonomy must be effectively managed. By doing so, the
partnership can evolve into a stronger and more enduring alliance, shaping regional dynamics
and contributing to global stability.
(Note: The sources mentioned above have been utilized throughout the paper to
support the analysis and arguments presented. Citations from these sources are integrated
within the body of the text.)
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References
- A More Focused and Resilient U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Author(s): Arzan Tarapore
2021 Journal of Legal 24(1):1-14 Authors: Azeem Gul (National University of Modern
- Between ‘Concern’ and ‘Opportunity’: US Pivot to Asia and Foreign Policy Debate in India
Yogesh Joshi Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, Vol. 2, No. 3 (December
- CSS World
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- Growing India-US Strategic Cooperation: An Analysis Mahrukh Khan Strategic Studies, Vol. 37,
- Sameer Lalwani and Heather Byrne Great Expectations: Asking Too Much of the US-India
Strategic Partnership
- The AUKUS agreement By Louisa Brooke-Holland, John Curtis, Claire Mills 11 October 2021.
- TRT World
- White House Press Release, Joint Leaders Statement on AUKUS (Sept. 15, 2021)
- https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/IF11047.pdf
- https://www.defense.gov/About/Office-of-the-Secretary-of-Defense/
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- https://www.ft.com/asia-pacific
- https://www.pbs.org/newshour/tag/u-s-foreign-policy