Lecture 4 Product and Service Design
Lecture 4 Product and Service Design
Lecture 4 Product and Service Design
Button 1 Button 2
(Prob.=0.95) (Prob.=0.88)
Reliability - Redundancy: Rule 2
• One way to enhance reliability is to utilize
redundancy
– Redundancy
• The use of backup components to increase reliability
• Rule 2
– If two events are independent and success is
defined as the probability that at least one of the
events will occur, the probability of success is
equal to the probability of either one plus 1 minus
that probability multiplied by the other probability
Example - Rule 2
• A restaurant located in area that has frequent power
outages has a generator to run its refrigeration
equipment incase of a power failure. The local power
company has a reliability of 0.97, and the generator
has a reliability of 0.9. The probability that the
restaurant will have power is
P(Power) = P(Power Co.)+ (1-P(Power Co.))x P(Generator) = 0.97+(1-0.97)x0.9 = 0.997
Generator
(Prob.=0.9)
Power Co.
(Prob.=0.97)
Reliability - Multiple Redundancy: Rule 3
• Rule 3
– If two or more events are involved and success is
defined as the probability that at least one of
them occurs, the probability of success is equal to
1 minus probability of all fail
Example - Rule 3
• A student takes three calculators (with reliabilities of 0.85, 0.8 and
0.75) to her exam. Only one of them needs to function for her to
be able to finish the exam. What is the probability that she will
have a functioning calculator to use wen taking her exam?
P(Any Calc.) = 1- (1-P(Calc. 1))x(1-P(Calc. 2))x(1-P(Calc. 3)) = 1- (1-0.85)x(1-0.8)x(1-0.75) = 0.9925
Calc. 3
(Prob.=0.75)
Calc. 2
(Prob.=0.8)
Calc. 1
(Prob.=0.85)
What is this system’s reliability?
B3
(Prob.=0.75)
A2 B2 C2
(Prob.=0.8) (Prob.=0.8) (Prob.=0.7)
A1 B1 C1
(Prob.=0.95) (Prob.=0.85) (Prob.=0.9)
A B C
(Prob.=0.99) (Prob.=0.9925) (Prob.=0.97)
System
(Prob.=0.9531)
Reliability Over Time
• In this case, reliabilities are determined relative to a specified
length of time.
• This is a common approach to viewing reliability when
establishing warranty periods
Infant Mortality
• To properly identify the distribution and
length of each phase requires collecting and
analysing historical data
• The mean time between failures (MTBF) in
the infant mortality phase can often be
modeled using the negative exponential
distribution
Exponential Distribution
P(No failure before T) = e-T/MTBF
where,
e= 2.7183…
T = Length of service before failure
MTBF= Mean time before failure
Reliability = e-T/MTBF
1-e -T/MTBF
Availability
• The fraction of time a piece of equipment is
expected to available for operation