Worksheet - Causal Arguments (Edited S1 2023)

Critical Thinking
Worksheet 8: Causal Arguments
Exercise 1: Possible explanations for correlations.

Use the chart bellow to help you figure out what explains the following correlations.
1. As the number of pirates in the world has decreased, the average global temperature
has increased. Therefore, pirates prevent climate change.
1. The faster a windmill rotates the more wind there is. Therefore, windmills cause wind.
2. Sleeping with one's shoes on is strongly correlated with waking up with a headache.
Therefore, sleeping with one's shoes on causes headache.
3. Assignments that are submitted several days before the due date typically get better
scores than assignments that are submitted on the day. Therefore, you can improve
your results by submitting your assignments early.
4. The presence of mosquitoes in your bedroom is tightly correlated with waking up

covered in itchy bumps. Therefore, mosquitoes cause itchy bumps.
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Exercise 2: More complex cases.
The following examples are adapted from the book How to think about weird things: critical
thinking for a New Age, T. Schick and L. Vaughn, McGraw Hill, 2002. In each case, some
evidence is reported regarding a particular treatment or diet. In each case, say whether there
is sufficient evidence to support a causal generalization and explain your answer.
1. Therapeutic Touch (TT) is an alternative medicine technique said to be used by over

40,000 nurses in North America alone. It is supported by major nursing organizations
and gets favourable mention in the media. TT practitioners claim that an “energy
field” unknown to science surrounds the human body and that practitioners can use
their hands to detect and manipulate this field. (No physical touching of the body is
involved, though.) In particular, they say that they can cure disease by “balancing”
people's fields, which are said to extend four to eight inches from the surface of the
skin. Many people do in fact report feeling better after TT treatment.
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2. A macrobiotic diet can be effective against cancer. Macrobiotics is a lifestyle and diet
derived from Far Eastern ideas and promoted by many adherents. The diet is semi-
vegetarian and low in fat. In recent years there have been many published accounts of
people who say they have recovered from cancer because they ate a macrobiotic diet.
There have also been several case reports. Attempts have been made to compare the
outcomes of these cases to those of patients with comparable cases of cancer who did
not follow a macrobiotic diet. These comparisons show that people on the macrobiotic
diet often have better outcomes.
3. Shark cartilage has been called to public attention by a CBS 60 Minutes program
focused on the theories of biochemist William I. Lane, Ph.D, author of Sharks Don’t
Get Cancer, Narrator Mike Wallace began by calling attention to the book and stating
that Lane says that sharks don’t get cancer. The program focused on a Cuban study of
twenty-nine “terminal” cancer patients who were given shark-cartilage preparations.
Wallace visited the site of the experiment, filmed several of the patients doing
exercise, and said that most of the patients felt better several weeks after the treatment
had begun. Two American cancer specialists then said that the results were intriguing.
One, who was aligned with the health-food industry, said that three of the patients
appeared to have improved. The other, who appeared to be solidly scientific, noted
that evaluation was difficult because many of the X-ray films were of poor quality,
but he thought that a few tumours had gotten smaller.
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4. A recent study found that students who wear bright white shirts not only tend to do better
at school but also are more successful by age 25. The longitudinal study tracked a cohort of
300 students from Clearwater Highschool in the Lakes District California. The study found
that the students who regularly work bright white shirts to school achieved on average 15%
higher GPA than their peers and by age 25 were earning almost double what the shabbier
peers were. The lesson here, make sure your children are well dressed.
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Exercise 3: Historical Cases.
In each of the following historical cases, identify what causal claim is being made and what
evidence is being used to support it. And then evaluate 1) whether or not these studies
provide compelling evidence for their conclusions and 2) how you might improve on them.
1. In order to test whether pellagra – a disease characterized by dermatitis, diarrhea,
dementia, and ultimately death that decimated the American South between 1907 and
1940 – was an infection disease spread or one caused by an inadequate diet, Joseph
Goldberger increased the allotment of fresh meat at two orphanages and an asylum
where pellagra was prevalent. He found that this intervention all but eradicated
instances of pellagra. The study involved 702 subjects, 414 of which suffered from
pellagra. Of these, only one had a recurrence of pellagra, after the dietary changes
were made. And there were no cases of healthy subjects developing the disease.
Causal Claims:
Evidence:
Is this study compelling evidence for Goldberger’s conclusion?
2. In a later study Goldberger tried to induce pellagra by feeding 11 volunteers at a

prison farm an impoverished corn heavy diet. The prison farm had no recorded cases
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of pellagra. 6 of the 11 developed the disease (The volunteers were offered shortened
sentences for their participation). Does this strengthen Goldberger’s case?
3. In a later study still, Goldberger tried to infect himself and his family with pellagra via
known methods of germ transmission. He swabbed the throats of pellagra patients and
then wiping the swab on the throats of his family members. He even fed them bits of
scabs and faeces from pellagra patients! None of his volunteers developed pellagra.
Does this strengthen Goldberger’s case?
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4. Ignaz Semmelweis, a Hungarian obstetrician working at the Vienna General
Hospital (Allgemeines Krankenhaus) in 1847, noticed the dramatically high maternal
mortality from puerperal fever following births assisted by doctors and medical
students. However, those attended by midwives were relatively safe. Investigating
further, Semmelweis made the connection between puerperal fever and examinations
of delivering women by doctors, and further realized that these physicians had usually
come directly from autopsies. Asserting that puerperal fever was a contagious
disease and that matter from autopsies were implicated in its development,
Semmelweis made doctors wash their hands with chlorinated lime water before
examining pregnant women. He then documented a sudden reduction in the mortality
rate from 18% to 2.2% over a period of a year. Despite this evidence, he and his
theories were rejected by most of the contemporary medical establishment.
(Wikipedia entry on the Germ Theory of disease)
Causal Claim:
Evidence:
Is this study compelling evidence for Semmelweis’s conclusion?
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Critical Thinking

Worksheet 8: Causal Arguments

Exercise 1: Possible explanations for correlations.

4. The presence of mosquitoes in your bedroom is tightly correlated with waking up

1. Therapeutic Touch (TT) is an alternative medicine technique said to be used by over

Is this study compelling evidence for Goldberger’s conclusion?

2. In a later study Goldberger tried to induce pellagra by feeding 11 volunteers at a

Is this study compelling evidence for Semmelweis’s conclusion?

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