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    OPSCMProject AnirudhaChakraborty

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    Anirudha Chakraborty
    The document contains a project submission analyzing forecasting methods for smartphones, laptops, and smartwatches. It includes [1] a justification for using a weighted moving average method, [2] six-month forecasts for each product, [3] forecast error calculations, [4] MAPE and bias calculations, and [5] observations and recommendations to improve forecasting accuracy. In summary, the analysis found high forecast errors for smartphones and bias in laptop forecasts, while recommending continuous improvements to forecasting methods and increased cross-departmental collaboration.

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    OPSCMProject AnirudhaChakraborty

    Uploaded by

    Anirudha Chakraborty
    215 views5 pages
    The document contains a project submission analyzing forecasting methods for smartphones, laptops, and smartwatches. It includes [1] a justification for using a weighted moving average method, [2] six-month forecasts for each product, [3] forecast error calculations, [4] MAPE and bias calculations, and [5] observations and recommendations to improve forecasting accuracy. In summary, the analysis found high forecast errors for smartphones and bias in laptop forecasts, while recommending continuous improvements to forecasting methods and increased cross-departmental collaboration.

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    OPSCMProject_AnirudhaChakraborty

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    OPSCMProject_AnirudhaChakraborty

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    The document contains a project submission analyzing forecasting methods for smartphones, laptops, and smartwatches. It includes [1] a justification for using a weighted moving average method, [2] six-month forecasts for each product, [3] forecast error calculations, [4] MAPE and bias calculations, and [5] observations and recommendations to improve forecasting accuracy. In summary, the analysis found high forecast errors for smartphones and bias in laptop forecasts, while recommending continuous improvements to forecasting methods and increased cross-departmental collaboration.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    215 views5 pages

    OPSCMProject AnirudhaChakraborty

    Uploaded by

    Anirudha Chakraborty
    The document contains a project submission analyzing forecasting methods for smartphones, laptops, and smartwatches. It includes [1] a justification for using a weighted moving average method, [2] six-month forecasts for each product, [3] forecast error calculations, [4] MAPE and bias calculations, and [5] observations and recommendations to improve forecasting accuracy. In summary, the analysis found high forecast errors for smartphones and bias in laptop forecasts, while recommending continuous improvements to forecasting methods and increased cross-departmental collaboration.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 5

    PROJECT SUBMISSION

    Task 1
    ● Method of forecasting: I would choose a weighted moving average method for short-term demand
    forecasting.

    ● Justification for the choice of method: This method considers different weights for each data point,
    giving more significance to recent sales data. Given the sensitivity to recent changes in the electronic
    gadgets market, this method is suitable. An assumption is that recent sales data provides more accurate
    insights into current market trends, reflecting the fast-paced nature of the industry.

    Task 2

    ● The formula used for forecasting demand:

    ● The demand forecast for the next six months is shown in the table below

    Month Smartphones (Forecast) Laptops (Forecast) Smartwatches (Forecast)

    Jan 1595 852 326

    Feb 1673 877 338

    Mar 1801 918 349

    Apr 1873 941 360


    May 1730 879 334

    Jun 2009 993 358

    Task 3

    ● The formula used for calculating forecast errors:

    ● The forecast errors for the six months is shown in the table below

    Month Smartphones Laptops Smartwatches

    Jan 5 −97 −67

    Feb -24 −12 −46

    Mar −232 −41 −99

    Apr −123 −18 −146


    May 190 121 −134

    Jun 31 107 −162

    Task 4
    ● The formula for calculating MAPE:

    ● MAPE for all product categories for the six months:

    Month Smartphones Laptops Smartwatches

    Jan 0.31 12.85 25.87

    Feb 1.46 1.39 15.75

    Mar 14.78 4.68 39.60

    Apr 7.03 1.95 68.22

    May 9.90 12.10 67.00


    Jun 1.52 9.73 82.65

    ● The formula for calculating Bias:

    ● Bias for all product categories for the six months:

    Month Smartphones Laptops Smartwatches

    Jan −71.83 24.33 −147.33

    Feb −55.67 −23.33 −102.33

    Mar −23.83 11.33 −104.00

    Apr −23.83 19.83 −73.83

    May −20.50 20.00 −101.00

    Jun −38.83 11.83 −98.83


    Task 5
     Smartphones:
    Observation: The MAPE for smartphones is high, indicating significant forecast errors.
    Recommendation: Enhance the forecasting model by incorporating more market data, considering
    technological advancements, and collaborating closely with the marketing team to capture changing
    consumer preferences.

    ● Laptops:
    Observation: Bias is observed in laptop forecasts.
    Recommendation: Regularly update the forecasting model parameters to adapt to changing market
    conditions. Consider implementing a more adaptive forecasting method that automatically adjusts to
    variations.

     Smartwatches:
    Observation: MAPE is relatively low for smartwatches.
    Recommendation: Despite the low MAPE, continue monitoring market trends closely and invest in
    improving data accuracy for smartwatches. Implement a more dynamic forecasting approach to
    accommodate potential shifts in consumer demand.

    In summary, a continuous improvement approach to forecasting methodologies and increased


    collaboration across departments will contribute to a more accurate and responsive supply chain for
    TechHub Electronics.

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