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Lecture 6 - Fall 2023

The document defines moments of random variables and moment generating functions. It provides formulas to calculate the nth moment of a random variable about the origin based on whether the variable is discrete or continuous. The nth moment generating function is defined as the expected value of e raised to the power of t multiplied by the random variable. Several special continuous distributions are also introduced, including the uniform, exponential, and normal distributions, along with their probability density functions and key properties.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
40 views38 pages

Lecture 6 - Fall 2023

The document defines moments of random variables and moment generating functions. It provides formulas to calculate the nth moment of a random variable about the origin based on whether the variable is discrete or continuous. The nth moment generating function is defined as the expected value of e raised to the power of t multiplied by the random variable. Several special continuous distributions are also introduced, including the uniform, exponential, and normal distributions, along with their probability density functions and key properties.

Uploaded by

tarunya724
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Moments of Random Variables: Let X be a random variable

with space RX and probability density function f .


The nth moment about the origin of a random variable X , as
denoted by E (X n ), is defined to be

8P
>
> x n f (x) if X is discrete
< x2RX
E (X n ) =
>
>
:R 1 n f (x)
1x if X is continuous

for n = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . , provided the right side converges abso-


lutely.
If n = 1, then E (X ) is called the first moment about the
origin. If n = 2, then E (X 2 ) is called the second moment of
X about the origin.
If n = 1, then E (X ) is called the first moment about the
origin. If n = 2, then E (X 2 ) is called the second moment of
X about the origin.

In general, these moments may or may not exist for a given


random variable. If for a random variable, a particular
moment does not exist, then we say that the random variable
does not have that moment.
MOMENT GENERATING FUNCTIONS

Moment Generating Function: Let X be a random variable


with probability density function f . A real valued function
M : R ! R defined by

M(t) = E (e tX )
is called the moment generating function of X if this expected
value exists for all t in the interval h < t < h for some
h > 0.
MOMENT GENERATING FUNCTIONS

Moment Generating Function: Let X be a random variable


with probability density function f . A real valued function
M : R ! R defined by

M(t) = E (e tX )
is called the moment generating function of X if this expected
value exists for all t in the interval h < t < h for some
h > 0.

Using the definition of expected value of a random variable, we


obtain
8P
>
> e tx f (x) if X is discrete
< x2RX
M(t) =
>
>
:R 1 tx
1 e f (x) if X is continuous.
Example: Let X have the PDF
81 x/2
<2e if x >0
f (x) =
:
0 otherwise.
Then
Z 1
M(t) = e tx e x/2
dx
0
Z 1
1 1
= e (t 2
)x
dx
2 0
1 1
= , t< .
1 2t 2
R1
[Use : 0 e ax dx = 1a , a > 0.]
To explain why we refer to this function as a “moment-generating”
function, let us substitute for e tx its Maclaurins series expansion,

t 2x 2 t 3x 3 tr xr
e tx = 1 + tx + + + ... + + ...
2! 3! r!
For discrete case, thus we get

X t 2x 2 t 3x 3 tr xr
M(t) = [1 + tx + + + ... + + . . .]f (x)
x
2! 3! r!

X X t2 X 2 tr X r
= f (x) + t xf (x) + x f (x) + . . . x f (x) + . . .
x x
2! x r! x

t2 tr
= 1 + E (X )t + E (X 2 ) + . . . + E (X r ) + . . .
2! r!
d r M(t)
Theorem: dt r |t=0 = E (X r ).
Example: Let X have the PDF
81 x/2
<2e if x >0
f (x) =
:
0 otherwise.
Recall
1 1
M(t) = , t< .
1 2t 2
Then
2 8 1
M 0 (t) = , M 00 (t) = , t< .
(1 2t)2 (1 2t)3 2
and hence

E (X ) = 2, E (X 2 ) = 8, and Var (X ) = 4.
Table of Contents

SOME SPECIAL CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS


SOME SPECIAL CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS

1. Uniform Distribution
A random variable X is said to be uniform on the interval
[a, b] if its probability density function is of the form

1
f (x) = , ax b
b a
where a and b are constants.

We denote a random variable X with the uniform distribution on


the interval [a, b] as X ⇠ UNIF(a, b).
APPLICATION: Random number generation.
THEOREM: If X is a uniform random variable on the interval
[a, b], then the mean, variance and moment generating functions
are respectively given by

b+a
E (X ) = µX =
2
2 (b a)2
Var(X ) = X =
12
8
>
<1 if x =0
MX (t) =
>
: e tb e ta
t(b a) otherwise.
EXERCISE: Suppose Y ⇠ UNIF(0, 1) and Y = 14 x 2 . What is the
probability density function of X ?
2. Exponential Distribution: A continuous random variable
is said to be an exponential random variable with parameter
✓ if it’s probability density function is of the form
81 x
<✓e ✓ if x > 0
f (x; ✓) =
:
0 otherwise.

where ✓ > 0.

If a random variable X has an exponential density function with


parameter ✓, then we denote it by writing X ⇠ EXP(✓).
APPLICATION: To model lifetime of electronic components.
2. Exponential Distribution: A continuous random variable
is said to be an exponential random variable with parameter
✓ if it’s probability density function is of the form
81 x
<✓e ✓ if x > 0
f (x; ✓) =
:
0 otherwise.

where ✓ > 0.

If a random variable X has an exponential density function with


parameter ✓, then we denote it by writing X ⇠ EXP(✓).
APPLICATION: To model lifetime of electronic components.
Alternate Definition of Exponential Distribution: A continuous
random variable is said to be an exponential random variable with
parameter = 1✓ if it’s probability density function is of the form
8 x
< e if x >0
f (x; ✓) =
:
0 otherwise.

where > 0.
1 1
Theorem: If X ⇠ EXP( ), then E (X ) = and Var (X ) = 2 .
EXERCISE: What is the cumulative density function of a random
variable which has an exponential distribution with variance 25?
The normal distribution plays a central role in probability and
statistics and was discovered by a French mathematician Abraham
DeMoivre (1667-1754). This distribution is also called the
Gaussian distribution after Carl Friedrich Gauss, who proposed it as
a model for measurement errors.
The normal distribution plays a central role in probability and
statistics and was discovered by a French mathematician Abraham
DeMoivre (1667-1754). This distribution is also called the
Gaussian distribution after Carl Friedrich Gauss, who proposed it as
a model for measurement errors.

3. The Normal (or Gaussian) Distribution:


A random variable X is said to have a normal distribution if
its probability density function is given by
1 1 x
( µ 2
)
f (x) = p e 2 , 1<x <1
2⇡
with parameters µ, where 1 < µ < 1 and > 0.
The normal distribution plays a central role in probability and
statistics and was discovered by a French mathematician Abraham
DeMoivre (1667-1754). This distribution is also called the
Gaussian distribution after Carl Friedrich Gauss, who proposed it as
a model for measurement errors.

3. The Normal (or Gaussian) Distribution:


A random variable X is said to have a normal distribution if
its probability density function is given by
1 1 x
( µ 2
)
f (x) = p e 2 , 1<x <1
2⇡
with parameters µ, where 1 < µ < 1 and > 0.

If X has a normal distribution with parameters µ and 2, then we


write X ⇠ N(µ, 2 ).
The graph of a normal probability density function, shaped like the
cross section of a bell.
• From the form of the probability density function, we see that the
density is symmetric about µ, f (µ x) = f (µ + x), where it has a
maximum, and that the rate at which it falls o↵ is determined by .
Theorem: If X ⇠ N(µ, 2 ), then

E (X ) = µX = µ
2 2
Var (X ) = X =

1 2t2
MX (t) = e µt+ 2 .
Proof.
Z 1
1 1 x µ 2
MX (t) = e tx p e 2
( )
dx
1 2⇡
Z 1
1 1 x µ 2
= p e tx e 2
( )
dx
2⇡ 1
Z 1
1 1 x µ 2
= p e tx e 2
( )
dx
2⇡ 1
Z 1
1 1
( 2xt 2 +(x µ)2 )
= p e 2 2 dx
2⇡ 1

Note that

2
2xt + (x µ)2 = [x (µt + 2 2
)] 2µt 2
t2 4
,
and hence

n Z 1 o
1 2t2 1 1 x
(
(µt+ 2 ) 2
)
MX (t) = e µt+ 2 p e 2 dx
2⇡ 1
Since the quantity inside the bracket is the integral from 1 to
1 of a normal probability density function with the parameters
µ + t 2 and , and hence is equal to 1, it follows that

1 2t2
MX (t) = e µt+ 2 .

Further,

1 2t2
MX0 (t) = (µ + 2
t)e µt+ 2 .
µt+ 12 2t2 1 2t2
MX00 (t) = 2
e + (µ + 2
t)2 e µt+ 2 .
=) E (X ) = MX0 (0) = µ and Var (X ) = 2
.

Hence the proof.


Standard Normal Random Variable: A normal random vari-
able is said to be standard normal, if its mean is zero and
variance is one. We denote a standard normal random vari-
able X by X ⇠ N(0, 1) and it’s probability density function
is given by
1 1 2
x
f (x) = p e 2 , 1 < x < 1.
2⇡
Example: If X ⇠ N(0, 1), what is the probability of the random
variable X less than or equal to 1.72?
Example: If X ⇠ N(0, 1), what is the probability of the random
variable X less than or equal to 1.72?
Solution: We have, using Standard Normal Table type I

P(X  1.72) = 1 P(X  1.72)


=1 0.9573
= 0.0427.
Example: If X ⇠ N(0, 1), what is the probability of the random
variable X less than or equal to 1.72?
Solution: We have, using Standard Normal Table type I

P(X  1.72) = 1 P(X  1.72)


=1 0.9573
= 0.0427.
Using Standard Normal Table type II,

P(X  1.72) = 0.0427.


• Probabilities that are not of the form P(Z  z) are found by
using the basic rules of probability and the symmetry of the normal
distribution.
• Probabilities that are not of the form P(Z  z) are found by
using the basic rules of probability and the symmetry of the normal
distribution.

Examples:
1. P(Z > 1.26)
2.P(Z > 1.37)
3. P(Z < 0.86)
4. P( 1.25 < z < 0.37)
Theorem: If X ⇠ N(µ, 2) then the random variable
Z = X µ ⇠ N(0, 1).
Theorem: If X ⇠ N(µ, 2) then the random variable
Z = X µ ⇠ N(0, 1).

Proof: We will show that Z is standard normal by finding the


probability density function of Z . We compute the probability
density of Z by first computing it’s cumulative distribution
function.

F (z) = P(Z  z)
X µ
= P(  z)
= P(X  z + µ)
Z z+µ
1 1 x
( µ 2
)
= p e 2 dx
1 2⇡
Z z
1 1 2
w
= p e 2 dw ,
1 2⇡
x µ
(where w = )
Hence
1 1 2
f (z) = F 0 (z) = p e 2
z
.
2⇡
Hence the proof.
Example: If X ⇠ N(3, 16), then what is P(4  X  8)?

4 3 X 3 8 3
P(4  X  8) = P(   )
4 4 4

1 5
= P(  Z  )
4 4

= P(Z  1.25) P(Z  0.25)

= 0.8944 0.5987

= 0.2957.

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