Industrial Systems Simulation (ID: 8054105-3)

Chapter 1 – Introduction to Simulation

Week of 08/27/2023
Dr. Hussain Abualkhair
College of Engineering – Industrial Engineering Program
 Introduction

▪ In use since 1960s, continues to grow, strengthen

▪ Growth, popularity facilitated by hardware/software advances
• Powerful, relatively cheap PCs
• Simulation-software user interfaces, design, ease of use
• Object-oriented technology in simulation software improves model
flexibility, ability to model complex systems
• Publicly available symbols promote 3D animation

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 Smart Factory/Industry 4.0
▪ Current trend towards fully connected and automated production system.
▪ Four design principles:
• Interoperability of components and data (IoT)
• Information transparency
• Support systems help solve problems
• System components perform autonomously
▪ Simulation, especially Risk-based Planning
and Scheduling, is a key technology to
support this evolution.

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 About the Book
Simio and Simulation: Modeling, Analysis, Applications (Fifth Edition)
▪ Simulation Concepts – Basis in underlying concepts and brief introduction to
software
• Chapter 1: Introduction to Simulation
About the book; systems, models, and applications; when to simulate (and when not to), managing simulation projects, stakeholder
and simulationist bills of rights
• Chapter 2: Basics of Queueing Theory
Basic analytical queueing theory; terminology; Little’s law; some specific queueing models; queueing networks;
strengths/limitations; use in verifying simulation models
• Chapter 3: Kinds of Simulation
Terminology, different kinds of simulation; manual simulation; using general-purpose programming languages; spreadsheet
simulation models; simulation software
• Chapter 4: First Simio Models
User interface; first model via Standard Library objects & processes; ATM model; basic output analysis via Simio Experiments &
SMORE plots; exporting output data for post-processing via external stat packages; basic animation

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 About the Book (cont.)
▪ Simulation Modeling With Simio – based on examples, integrated validation
and output analysis
• Chapter 5: Intermediate Modeling With Simio
Simio object framework; PCB assembly models; comparing alternative scenarios

• Chapter 6: Input Analysis

Specifying probability distributions/processes for input to simulation models with the external Stat::Fit software; generating random numbers, variates,
vectors, and processes

• Chapter 7: Working With Model Data

Emergency-department model with Data & Sequence tables; importing/exporting data; Schedules; Rate & Function Tables; Lists; Changeovers, State
Arrays

• Chapter 8: Animation and Entity Movement

2D/3D animation; entity movement; Links; Conveyors; assisted entity movement

• Chapter 9: Advanced Modeling With Simio

More advanced modeling examples; processes; seeking optimal scenarios

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 Systems and Models
▪ System – broad term, set of related components working together toward
some purpose, usually over time
• Simple ATM; complex airport; very complex global distribution network
• May or may not exist; may or may not be possible to experiment with the real
system directly
▪ Model of a system
• Physical model – airplane cockpit for training, wind tunnels
• Analytical model – exact mathematical analysis, limited domain/flexibility
• Simulation model –……

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 Systems and Models (cont.)
• Physical model – airplane cockpit for training, wind tunnels
• Analytical model – exact mathematical analysis, limited domain/flexibility
• Simulation model –
o Imitation of system’s operation over time (dynamic)
o Appropriate level of detail, draw conclusions about system behavior
o Software to represent system components, behavior, interactions
o Record artificial “history” of model, summarize characteristics
o Used to predict effect of changes to existing system, or performance of new systems

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 Kinds of Simulations

▪ Stochastic vs. Deterministic

• Stochastic – random inputs to model to represent the realistic
variation found in most systems (time to complete a task, time
between successive arrivals of customers, machine uptimes and
downtimes, branching probabilities)
o Outputs random too, subject to proper statistical analysis
• Deterministic – no random inputs to model, so outputs are always the
same (unless you change something in the model)

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 Type of Simulations
▪ Discrete vs. Continuous
• Discrete – state variables describing the model change only at instantaneous
discrete points in time (event times)
o Number of customers in queue, server status (busy, idle, down)
• Continuous – state variables can change continuously over time, described by
differential equations that are solved numerically
o Pressure in a tank, temperature in an oven, fluid flow
• Mixed discrete/continuous models
▪ More detail on kinds of simulation in Chapter 3

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 Discrete-Event Modeling Paradigms
▪ Events
• Model the points in time when the system state can change
• Program to carry out instantaneous event logic, scheduling of future events, observing output and summaries
▪ Processes
• Model a sequence of actions taking place over time (part in a manufacturing system seizes a worker, delays for service,
releases worker)
▪ Objects
• Describe model from the point of view of the facility
▪ Agent-based
• Agents are a special case of objects
• Give intelligence to objects to make them into agents
• System behavior emerges from interaction of many autonomous agents

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 Areas Where Simulation Has Been Applied

• Airports • Manufacturing
• Hospitals • Military
• Ports • Telecommunications
• Mining • Criminal Justice System
• Amusement Parks • Emergency-response System
• Call Centers • Public Sector
• Supply Chains • Customer Service

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 Why Simulation?

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 Impact of Variation

▪ Most systems contain variation.

• Demand by customers, parts
• Equipment/personnel failures
• Shortages of materials/supplies.
▪ Randomness is an important aspect of most systems.
▪ Random processes cannot be analyzed with static tools.
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 When to Simulate (and When Not To)
▪ If a valid model of the system is simple enough to model analytically and get exact
results, then don’t simulate
• Key word: valid … probably possible for only the very simplest of systems
▪ If system becomes complicated, it’s tempting to over-simplify the assumptions to get to
an analytically tractable model
• Advantage is that you get exact answers, no uncertainty or noise
• But what good is an exact answer to the wrong model? How to measure “how wrong” a model
is?
o Solving the (perhaps-unrealistic) model vs. solving the real problem

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 When to Simulate (and When Not To)
(cont.)
▪ Disadvantage of (stochastic) simulation – answers are just
statistical estimates with uncertainty and noise
• Need to design, and statistically analyze simulation experiments
• Can measure uncertainty/noise, take steps to reduce to tolerable level
o But you must be aware of this and consider it
• It’s better to get a sufficiently precise estimated answer to the right
model, than an exact answer to the wrong model

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 Simulation Success Skills – Project
Objectives
▪ Stakeholder – Someone who commissions, funds, uses, or is affected by a
simulation project
• Conflicting objectives between different stakeholders are not uncommon
▪ There is no “single simulation model” for a system – the “right” model depends
on a combination of the system and the study objectives:
• What do you want to evaluate, learn, or hope to prove?
• What’s the scope of the project?
• What data are available or can be collected?
• In what form do you want the results?

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 Functional Specification
“If you don’t know where you’re going,
how will you know when you get there?”

Carpenter’s advice: “Measure twice. Cut once.”

▪ Functional specification – a document describing exactly what will be delivered, when, how, and by
whom
▪ How long will this project take?

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 Functional Specification
▪ For most models:
• Objectives
• System description and modeling approach
• Input data required
• Expected experimentation
• Deliverables
▪ From practical experience, approximately 5-10% of a project’s total time should be
spent on developing the objectives and functional specification.
▪ This is NOT extra time, but rather moving selected important work to the beginning of
the project where it can be using planning and estimating the work.

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 Project Iterations
▪ Simulation novices often start modeling and keep adding to the model until
it’s “complete,” and only then run the model.
Don’t do that!

▪ Use an iterative model-building process

• Add features/model components
• Run/Test
• Repeat
▪ “Save early, save often!”

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 Simulation Process

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 Bill of Rights

▪ For Simulation Stakeholder – What your stakeholder can

expect from you.
▪ For Simulationist – What you can expect from your
stakeholders.

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 Simulation Stakeholder Bill of Rights
▪ Partnership – The modeler will do more than provide information on request. The modeler will
assume some ownership of helping stakeholders determine the right problems and identify
and evaluate proposed solutions.
▪ Functional Specification – A specification will be created at the beginning of the project to help
define clear project objectives, deadlines, data, responsibilities, reporting needs, and other
project aspects. This specification will be used as a guide throughout the project, especially
when tradeoffs must be considered.
▪ Prototype – All but the simplest projects will have a prototype to help stakeholders and the
modeler communicate and visualize the project scope, approach, and outcomes. The
prototype is often done as part of the functional specification.

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 Simulation Stakeholder Bill of Rights
▪ Level of Detail – The model will be created at an appropriate level of detail
to address the stated objectives. Too much or too little detail could lead to
an incomplete, misunderstood, or even useless model.
▪ Phased Approach – The project will be divided into phases and the interim
results should be shared with stakeholders. This allows problems in
approach, detail, data, timeliness, or other areas to be discovered and
addressed early and reduces the chance of an unfortunate surprise at the
end of a project.

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 Simulation Stakeholder Bill of Rights
▪ Timeliness – If a decision-making date has been clearly identified, usable results will
be provided by that date. If project completion has been delayed, regardless of reason
or fault, the model will be re-scoped so that the existing work can provide value and
contribute to effective decision-making.
▪ Agility – Modeling is a discovery process and often new directions will evolve over the
course of the project. While observing the limitations of level of detail, timeliness, and
other aspects of the functional specification, a modeler will attempt to adjust project
direction appropriately to meet evolving needs.

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 Simulation Stakeholder Bill of Rights
(cont.)
▪ Validated and Verified – The modeler will certify that the model conforms to
the design in the functional specification and that the model appropriately
represents the actual operation. If there is inadequate time for accuracy,
there is inadequate time for the modeling effort.
▪ Clear Accurate Results – The project results will be summarized and
expressed in a form and terminology useful to stakeholders. Since
simulation results are an estimate, proper analysis will be done so that the
stakeholders are informed of the accuracy of the results.

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 Simulation Stakeholder Bill of Rights
(cont.)
▪ Animation – Every model deserves at least simple animation to aid in
verification and communication with stakeholders.
▪ Documentation – The model will be adequately documented both internally
and externally to support both immediate objectives and long term model
viability.
▪ Integrity – The results and recommendations are based only on facts and
analysis and are not influenced by politics, effort, or other inappropriate
factors.

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 Simulationist Bill of Rights
▪ Clear Objectives – A simulationist can help stakeholders discover and refine their objectives,
but clearly the stakeholders must agree on project objectives. The primary objectives must
remain solid throughout the project.
▪ Stakeholder Participation – Adequate access and cooperation must be provided by the people
who know the system both in the early phases and throughout the project. Stakeholders will
need to be involved periodically to assess progress and resolve outstanding issues.
▪ Timely Data – The functional specification should describe what data will be required, when it
will be delivered and by whom. Late, missing, or poor quality data can have a dramatic impact
on a project.

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 Simulationist Bill of Rights

▪ Management Support – The simulationist’s manager should

support the project as needed not only in issues like tools and
training, but also in shielding the simulationist from energy
sapping politics and bureaucracy.
▪ Cost of Agility – If stakeholders ask for project changes, they
should be flexible in other aspects such as delivery date, level
of detail, scope, or project cost.
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 Simulationist Bill of Rights
▪ Timely Review/Feedback – Interim updates should be reviewed promptly
and thoughtfully by the appropriate people so that meaningful feedback
can be provided and any necessary course corrections can be immediately
made.
▪ Reasonable Expectations – Stakeholders must recognize the limitations of
the technology and project constraints and not have unrealistic
expectations. A project based on the assumption of long work hours is a
project that has been poorly managed.

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 Simulationist Bill of Rights
▪ “Don’t shoot the messenger” – The modeler should not be criticized if the results
promote an unexpected or undesirable conclusion.
▪ Proper Tools – A simulationist should be provided the right hardware and software
appropriate to the project. While “the best and latest” is not always required, a
simulationist should not have to waste time on outdated or inappropriate software
and inefficient hardware.
▪ Training and Support – A simulationist should not be expected to “plunge ahead” into
unfamiliar software and applications without training. Proper training and support
should be provided.

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 Simulationist Bill of Rights
▪ Integrity – A simulationist should be free from coercion. If a stakeholder “knows” the
right answer before the project starts, then there is no point to starting the project. If
not, then the objectivity of the analysis should be respected with no coercion to
change the model to produce the desired results.
▪ Respect – A good simulationist may sometimes make the job look easy, but don’t take
them for granted. A project often “looks” easy only because the simulationist did
everything right, a feat that in itself is very difficult. And sometimes a project looks
easy only because others have not seen the nights and weekends involved.

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Homework 1: Write a 500 words summary of the use of Simulation in the Industry 4.0 revolution.
- You need to use at least 3 peer-reviewed journal articles as references
- Use APA style for referencing.