10 KEY TRENDS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS

The Market Outlook for Telecommunications

10 KEY TRENDS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS 1

Contents
1.1 The State of Telecommunications & Market Outlook ......................................... 2
1.2 About Juniper Research .......................................................................................... 3
1.2.1 Juniper Research’s Telco Coverage ............................................................ 3

The 10 Key Trends Disrupting the Telecommunications Market

1. CPaaS

2. CCaaS

3. A2P Messaging

4. 5G Satellite Services

5. Flash Calling

6. Chatbots

7. Mobile Identity & Authentication

8. IoT Roaming

9. Robocall Mitigation

10. Wholesale Roaming

Juniper Research Market Intelligence Centres ......................................................... 12

10 KEY TRENDS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS 2

1.1 The State of Telecommunications &

Market Outlook
The telecommunications industry has CPaaS: Platforms Must Provide Managed Services to SMEs in Order to
undertaken rapid digital innovation over the 1 Generate CPaaS Growth
last decade, moving from a voice-centric model
of service provision to IP-based connectivity,
which has developed new tools and solutions. 2 CCaaS: AI Is Required Facilitate the CCaaS Omnichannel Experience
The importance of the telecommunications
industry to key verticals such as healthcare,
A2P Messaging: Emerging Fraud Types, such as AGT/AIT and Message
government, and enterprise. This radical shift 3 Trashing, Require Third-party Fraud Mitigation Vendors
to IP-based networks has greatly improved the
efficiency in launching new
telecommunications services, which can both 5G Satellite Networks: 5G Satellite Services Must Be Integrated in
benefit operators and pose challengers. 4 Terrestrial Networks, with Pricing of Connectivity Determined by Use
Case
Juniper Research has identified 10 key market
trends that are currently disrupting
Flash Calling: Emerging Authentication Channel to Disrupt Established A2P
telecommunications ecosystems, as well as 5 SMS Revenue
providing operators with key sources of
potential revenue. The whitepaper delves into
the emergence of these trends and which Chatbots: ChatGPT Is Significantly Lowering the Barriers to Entry for
strategies operators and stakeholders can
6 Chatbot Adoption Amongst Enterprises
implement to best position themselves to
capitalise on this rapidly changing ecosystem. Mobile Identity & Authentication: SMS Traffic for Mobile Authentication
By the end of this whitepaper, readers will have 7 Will Remain Dominant, as North America Provides the Greatest
Opportunities
gained a deeper understanding of the key
areas disrupting the telecommunications
market in 2023. IoT Roaming: 5G and LPWA Connections Will Necessitate BCE in Roaming
8 Markets

Robocall Mitigation: Brand Authentication & End-user Trust Imperative for

9 Maintaining Brand Reputation

Wholesale Roaming: 5G Is Increasing Complexity for Wholesale Roaming

10 Vendors
10 KEY TRENDS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS 3

1.2.1 Juniper Research’s Telco Coverage

1.2 About Juniper Research Our telco research portfolio delivers essential market intelligence for the
telecommunications and network operator industries, based on over 20
years’ experience.

Discover extensive market size and data, strategic recommendations, and

Juniper Research has been providing essential market intelligence to the trends analysis across 29 reports; covering everything from roaming and
telecommunications and network operator industries for over two decades. edge computing, to business messaging and chatbots.

Whatever the sector, our clients – which include many of the world’s leading We’re here to help you make smarter business decisions. Our expert
network operators and communications platforms – benefit from actionable analysts distil complex markets, technologies, and business models into
knowledge and insight; delivered by experienced industry experts, and easily digestible analysis and actionable insights – not management
backed up by robust and dependable forecasting models. buzzwords. Shown below are some of our key product offerings:

Our telco portfolio comprises 30+ reports; covering everything from • Subscription Packages
established technologies such as business messaging and roaming, to • Interactive Datasets
emerging technologies such as chatbots and 5G satellite networks.
• Online Data Platform – harvest
This level of coverage, together with our industry-leading client support
programme and quarterly forecast updates, means that no matter how fast • Competitor Leaderboards
their industry moves, our clients never have to worry about being left
• Consumer and Enterprise Surveys
behind.
• Bespoke Whitepapers

For more information, contact Nick Mardell • Industry Webinars and Speaking Engagements

[email protected] • Email Marketing

• Industry Awards

Or visit our website:

www.juniperresearch.com
10 KEY TRENDS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS 4

1. CPaaS: Platforms Must Provide Managed Services to SMEs These include:

in Order to Generate CPaaS Growth
• CDPs will enable a greater level of automation of managed services.
Managed services will be a key differentiator, especially as CPaaS vendors However, in order to benefit from this, Juniper Research anticipates that
begin targeting SMEs for service provision. Over 2023, the levels of service immediate integration of services into core CPaaS solutions is essential.
provision for CPaaS vendors are becoming increasingly saturated and the This will enable brands and enterprises to better automate the process of
need for unique selling points and market differentiation is increasingly improving the user experience. Leveraging AI and machine learning to
crucial. Juniper Research believes there are various strategies and solutions determine best communication channels and time to contact users to
that must be implemented that are targeted towards SMEs. improve response rates must be considered the priority. Additionally,
CPaaS vendors must highlight the capabilities of these services.
Figure 1: Total CPaaS Market Value in 2022, Split by 8 Key Regions: $16.5 Billion
• Juniper Research believes that personalisation of content will be key for
future services, and will provide a significant USP over other CPaaS
platforms when added to SMEs. However, subscription fees must
18%
represent this development.
23%
In addition to managed services, Juniper Research believes that supporting a
multitude of channels is as important as ever in maximising the value of a
6% CPaaS platform, and enabling vendors to capitalise on a market that will
grow from $16.5 billion globally in 2022, to over $42 billion by 2027.
7%
10%
2. CCaaS: AI Is Required Facilitate the CCaaS Omnichannel
Experience
12%
12%
The infographic overleaf highlights how CCaaS platforms provide an
11%
omnichannel communications solution to contact centres that can be
leveraged by both customer service agents and customers to ensure
frictionless interactions.
North America Latin America West Europe

Central & East Europe Far East & China Indian Subcontinent
Whilst omnichannel communications allows contact centres to provide a
superior customer service whilst minimising labour costs, it does provide a
Rest of Asia Pacific Africa & Middle East degree of complexity, as agents are expected to handle multiple
synchronous conversations across multiple platforms. The ability to utilise AI
Source: Juniper Research
in CCaaS will also allow users to view all interactions and digital
10 KEY TRENDS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS 5

conversations in real-time, whilst monitoring call routes, messaging customer is calling, if they have called before and how they prefer the query
termination and clearing. It can also be used to improve self-service in to be resolved.
technologies such as chatbots, voicebots, AI-IVR (Artificial
Intelligence-Interact Voice Response) and intelligence routing.
Generative AI will play a key role for CCaaS platforms in the future and
Figure 2: CCaaS Solution
investment and development must be considered a priority for platforms. Key
use cases must include customer management and personalised offerings;
additionally, Juniper Research warns that generative AI does not represent a
seismic shift in how communications operate, but must be viewed as an
addition that supports existing solutions.

3. A2P Messaging: Emerging Fraud Types, such as AGT/AIT

and Message Trashing, Require Third-party Fraud
Mitigation Vendors
Each major A2P messaging channel, including OTT messaging apps, RCS and
SMS face their own vulnerabilities to fraud. Whilst SMS is protected by the
SS7 network layer, there are specific attacks targeting vulnerabilities in this
layer. Moreover, there is a lack of consensus surrounding security
requirements for differing OTT messaging applications. That is, rather than a
Source: Juniper Research
regulatory body or network operator imposing the regulations for these
Moreover, implementing AI into CCaaS processes allows enterprises to apps, security protocols are purely governed by the application’s developers.
create specific ‘customer buckets’ for customer experience. Customers in Lastly, whilst RCS offers verified sender identification and user
these ‘buckets’ will be matched by purchasing history, browsing behaviour, authentication, it is important to note that spam can still occur in this
and clicks. By gathering this information, AI is able to provide channel. This is more clearly evidenced by the issues that Google has faced
recommendations for preferred resolution methods, previous query history within India, leading to the temporarily halting of RCS services across the
and provided feedback. This gives customer service agents the tools to country.
provide enhanced customer service, as they are able to predict why the
10 KEY TRENDS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS 6

Juniper Research notes that there are several types of fraudulent activity operators can differentiate the services for IoT and broadband use cases. A failure to
which target different stakeholders within the A2P messaging market, do so will result in diminished revenue, which will lengthen the time operators can
including network operators, messaging aggregators and subscribers secure ROI (Return on Investment) into partnerships with SNOs (Satellite Network
Operators).
themselves. Network operators must ensure that subscribers are
adequately educated on the most common forms of fraud, in order to Figure 3: Global Operator-billed Satellite Revenue from 5G Satellite Services in 2030, Split
reduce vulnerabilities. Operators must also ensure the implementation of by 3 Key Satellite Service: $10.7 Billion
advanced analytics capabilities within their networks; working with
third-party specialised firewall vendors to implement SMS firewalls that are
capable of monitoring both inbound and outbound traffic. Lastly, operators 5%
must ensure that they work with legitimate aggregators to protect the
27%
messaging ecosystem and prevent the fraudulent delivery of traffic.
Aggregators must also play a role; providing direct connections wherever
possible and offering advanced analytic capabilities.

A key example of this in 2023 has been the rise in AGT (Artificially Generated
Traffic)/AIT (Artificially Inflated Traffic), and Message Trashing. Both are key
examples of platform fraud that are achieved whilst the message is in
68%
transit. Given the nascency of this type of fraud, operators must partner
with third parties who can assess the reliability of message termination
networks and aggregators. A/B testing will be a key process in evaluating the
prevalence of AGT/AIT in message termination networks.

4. 5G Satellite Services Must Be Integrated in Terrestrial Mobile Subscriptions IoT Connections Satellite Broadband

Networks, with Pricing of Connectivity Determined by Use

Case
Source: Juniper Research
Juniper Research believes that whilst 5G satellite services will be integrated into
Juniper Research urges operators to differentiate pricing based on use case, with
terrestrial networks from an orchestration standpoint, it is in the best interests of the
pricing not set by throughput, latency or data consumption requirements. Given the
operator to ensure that satellite access is monetised separately to existing
costly nature of satellite services, industries which generate more revenue must be
subscriptions based on terrestrial networks.
charged a premium. However, there must be clear value over competing
Monetisation is key for operators to secure a return on investment, and whilst technologies and connectivity models, such as private networks, CBRS (Citizens
integration of satellite services is essential for orchestration and a seamless hand-off Broadband Radio Service), terrestrial networks or less advanced technologies, such
of connectivity between terrestrial and non-terrestrial networks, it is imperative that as Wi-Fi.
10 KEY TRENDS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS 7

5. Flash Calling: Emerging Authentication Channel to Figure 4: Total Operator Losses to Flash Calling Traffic ($m), Representing
Disrupt Established A2P SMS Revenue Monetised & Lost Traffic, Split by 8 Key Regions, 2019-2027

Flash calling is an emerging authentication service which has the potential to $500
disrupt existing processes such as the ubiquitous A2P $450
(Application-to-Person) SMS authentication. A key reason for the rise in $400
popularity of flash calling is due to a high volatility in SMS prices. As flash
$350
calling is more cost effective and frictionless in nature, operators can
$300
provide enhanced customer experiences, particularly for Android owners.
$250
Authentication-based calls are anticipated to generate large amounts of $200
revenue for mobile operators thus disrupting current SMS revenue.
$150
However, flash calls are only available as a hands-off method for
$100
authentication on Android devices, meaning their omnipresence remains
questionable in the voice verification space, as A2P SMS verification is $50

utilised across all devices in the existing market. $0

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Notably, there has been some debate as to which strategy to implement in
regards to flash calling; whether to monetise this traffic through the Monetisted Lost
implementation of voice firewall tools that can detect missed calls, or block
this traffic based on the information from the originating number and Source: Juniper Research
routing.
6. Chatbots: ChatGPT Is Significantly Lowering the Barriers
to Entry for Chatbot Adoption Amongst Enterprises
However, over the course of 2023, Juniper Research believes that the Since late 2022, conversational AI has gained a substantial level of
majority of network operators are looking to block this traffic before popularity, with the November 2022 launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT
(Generative Pre-trained Transformer). ChatGPT is an LLM (Large Language
the voice call can be terminated. However, given the complexities of
Model) with a generative large language model. The initial language model
identifying this traffic before it is terminated, and the risk to the on release was called GPT-3.5, but the subsequent GPT-4 was released in
valuable P2P voice channels, we believe that more operators will look to March 2023. However, ChatGPT was met with amplified criticism and
concerns over the threats that AI poses, such as greater obsolescence of
monetise this traffic over the next five years.
human labour, and the national security concerns that may stem from it.
10 KEY TRENDS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS 8

Many chatbots vendors have already adopted language models directly Notably, North America is forecast to experience the greatest growth over
from OpenAI; these include Aivo, Teneo, Chatfuel, Conversica and Kasisto. It the forecast period, for the following reasons:
has been less than a year since ChatGPT has experienced substantial
• The US has historically been reliant on mobile communications by brands
adoption in many areas of operations in communications.
and enterprises to manage their customer relationships. As a result,
mobile authentication services have typically been used over SMS.
Additionally, despite being a leader in emerging technologies, including
As a result, Juniper Research believes that the continued development of
RCS and OTT messaging, we expect SMS to continue to be a
LLMs will only benefit chatbots over all channels, including RCS. By revenue-generating medium for mobile authentication. Over the forecast
lowering the barrier to adoption, chatbot development will increasingly period, North America’s revenue from SMS-based mobile authentication
will reach 42%.
be adopted by SMEs, and operators must prepare in 2023. This includes
setting up partnerships with communications platforms who can • Service providers in North America are heavily reliant on authentication
services for verifying identities and transactions. Additionally, the focus on
enable workflow builders to increase chatbot usage, and thus message
security is a prime concern for many enterprises; in turn, many users will
revenue via RCS channels for operators. leverage SMS to authenticate accounts when using new services or
accessing new devices for the first time. This will continue to drive demand
for SMS traffic in North America over the next five years.

7. Mobile Identity & Authentication: SMS Traffic for Mobile

Authentication Will Remain Dominant, as North America However, this traffic is under threat from other technologies, such as
Provides the Greatest Opportunities
OTT authentication channels and device-based biometric
SMS will remain the most important channel for mobile authentication. It authentication. Juniper Research believes that operators must look to
has ubiquitous penetration amongst mobile subscribers, a high open rate
for messages, and most importantly, a very high termination rate. As a focus on offering telco APIs, such as Number Verify and Silent
result, it remains a popular channel amongst brands and enterprises. The Authentication, in order to keep the demand for authentication traffic
region that comprises the highest traffic is Africa & Middle East. This region within the realm of telecommunications. A failure to do so will result in
houses a large proportion of unbanked or underbanked individuals and a
low incidence of Internet access; as a result, there is high demand for SMS
a substantial loss of messaging revenue.
authentication messages. The low access to the Internet also contributes to
a low uptake of OTT messaging services. In turn, Africa & Middle East is
expected to account for 31% of global SMS authentication traffic by 2027.
10 KEY TRENDS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS 9

8. IoT Roaming: 5G and LPWA Connections Will Necessitate Figure 5: Total Number of IoT Roaming Connections (m), 2020-2028
BCE in Roaming Markets
700.0
Issues with TAP (Transferred Account Procedures), such as inability to
identify and bill a large number of connections, are exacerbated in the 600.0

context of IoT roaming, as the number of IoT devices means operators have
to use TAP to bill small amounts of data for millions of devices. Moreover, 500.0

the revenue generated per IoT roaming connection is relatively low when
400.0
compared to other roaming devices such as mobile phones. This further
exacerbates issues, as inefficiencies pose a greater threat to operators’
300.0
profits margins.

BCE (Billing & Charging Evolution) is set to alleviate these concerns once fully 200.0
adopted, as it will allow operators to bill based on usage data aggregated on
a per-day basis. Operators will also benefit from: 100.0

• Enhanced Traffic Filtering 0.0

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
• Flexible Timescales
North America Latin America West Europe
• Improved Efficiency
Central & East Europe Far East & China Indian Subcontinent
• New Use Case Monetisation

BCE offers a considerable upgrade from TAP for IoT roaming billing and Rest of Asia Pacific Africa & Middle East

Juniper Research expects adoption of BCE to become of increasing

importance as the volume of IoT traffic and number of connections grows. Source: Juniper Research

BCE also opens up the opportunity for operators to adopt new charging As can be seen from figure 5, there will be a significant growth in the
models, such as count-based charging. These new models will allow number of IoT connections that are inbound roaming. With this growth
operators to optimise their billing procedures for different use cases such as comes pressure for operators to correctly identify and bill for the correct
whether the amount of data the device transmits or whether this data is usage; this is especially true as 5G, and eventually 6G, become increasingly
mission critical. This optimisation will allow operators to further maximise prevalent as these connections are anticipated to be far more data intensive
the revenue they generate from IoT roaming. that previous network technology iterations.
10 KEY TRENDS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS 10

9. Robocall Mitigation: Brand Authentication & End-user are at risk from fines and traffic being blocked from that provider from
Trust Imperative for Maintaining Brand Reputation enterprises such as the FCC.

Robocalls can diminish brand reputation and leave businesses in a 10. Wholesale Roaming: 5G Is Increasing Complexity for
vulnerable position to repair relationships with customers after an Wholesale Roaming Vendors
unwarranted attack. Unless customers have given direct permission for an
The wholesale roaming market is becoming increasingly complex, and in
organisation to contact them regarding personal or relevant information,
discussion with vendors, this complexity is being seen as a significant
organisations should not attempt to contact end users under any other
barrier. As 2G and 3G sunsetting continues rapidly, many operators are
circumstance.
being forced into a situation where they are having to move to 5G at a faster
One way in which businesses can verify and authenticate their identity to rate than perhaps they are ready.
customers is through branded calling; a more widespread, popular
Alongside the challenges of adapting and negotiating 5G roaming
consumer service. Branded calling is vital for organisations to adopt when
agreements, operators are having to increasingly run concurrent systems
contacting customers, to avoid becoming blocked or ignored in light of the
for each of the technologies. TAP and BCE are now the norm for most
growing number of fraudulent robocalls. Branded calling works by verifying
operators, and smaller operators in particular are struggling with the
the origin of the call through subscriber vetting, phone number validation
complexities of this new norm.
and attestation.
Additionally, this increase in 5G dependence will cause a greater level of
The way in which scammers present themselves is continually evolving
disruption in the wholesale roaming market over the next five years. With
amidst the developments of new technology. A particularly effective method
this, roaming vendors will see an increase in the variety of consumer devices
for scammers to exploit is to impersonate a trusted organisation, posing as
that will roam internationally. The development of 5G-enabled devices such
them to deceive end users into offering personal information and data. For
as the Apple Watch, tablets, laptops, and iPads paired with smartphone
the customer, such attacks can impact their relationship with the brand:
penetration rates will drive the demand for roaming data and subsequent
despite the innocence of the organisation, the end user then associates the
roaming traffic.
scam with the company. The consequence of this is that customers will
move over to competitor brands, meaning the original company loses As margins decline and the demand for a quick shift from 2G/3G to 5G and
business and its brand reputation is damaged. VoLTE increases, some MNOs are finding themselves short on time to make
the changes fast enough.
Whilst companies may not be directly at fault for consumers experiencing
such fraudulent attacks, the strategies they have in place to mitigate the There is still uncertainty around 5G roaming agreement regulations, as
risks of this places them in the firing line for prosecution. regulatory bodies, such as the GSMA (Global System for Mobile
Communications) and the 3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project), are yet
If businesses do not offer solid data management solutions with protective
to outline standards for 5G roaming models. This means operators are able
mechanisms such as API calls to reduce the chances of criminal activity, they
10 KEY TRENDS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS 11

to continue charging high prices for offering 5G in their roaming packages.

Whilst this may contribute positively to the roaming revenue, subscribers For more information, contact Nick Mardell
are more likely to remain on 4G networks, as the price for subscribing is
[email protected]
cheaper.

There is an urgent demand to assist in this shift and to ensure that MNOs
are ready and have the resources available to them to make the change. Or visit our website:
Many MNOs are relying on enhanced tools, advice and analytics to navigate
www.juniperresearch.com
the changes that are inevitable. Juniper Research recommends that vendors
continue to focus on the shift to 5G and VoLTE and to prepare MNOs for
interoperability agreements and billing challenges.

Figure 6: Global Total Inbound Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by Consumer and
IoT, 2023-2028

$30,000

$25,000

$20,000

$15,000

$10,000

$5,000

$0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Consumer IoT

Source: Juniper Research

10 KEY TRENDS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS 12

Juniper Research Market Intelligence

Centres We offer flexible packages that can be tailored to your needs and
budget:
Discover a 360° view of your market with the
industry's most comprehensive annual
research subscription offering, including: • Customer Interaction Platforms
• Cutting-edge data and forecasts: Thousands In today's digital age, customers expect to engage with
of telecommunications market statistics businesses through multiple channels. Our customer
covering revenue, users, traffic volumes and interaction platforms portfolio delivers the insights you need FIND OUT MORE
more, split by 60 countries and forecast out to enable your customers to deliver exceptional customer
for the next 5 years. experiences.
• Industry insight and analysis: Strategic • Messaging
assessment and recommendations on the
biggest telco market trends and We've had our finger on the pulse of messaging for over two
opportunities, alongside strategic decades; from SMS, through the rise of OTT and RCS, and FIND OUT MORE
recommendations and regional analysis. beyond into consolidated communications ecosystems such as
CPaaS.
• Analyst support: Pose questions to our
expert fraud and security analysts, request • Roaming
bespoke forecasts, and discuss new
Over the last two decades, the roaming market has undergone
opportunities.
significant transformation – and we’ve been there covering
these changes throughout. Our roaming research portfolio FIND OUT MORE
• Enterprise-wide licencing: Let your whole
team benefit from our expert insight with no reflects this history; providing in-depth coverage of the biggest
seat restrictions. areas within roaming.

Subscribe today and start identifying potential • Telco Security

industry prospects, make smarter business
Security is essential to protect the confidentiality, integrity, and
decisions, and unlock advantage through
availability of telecommunications networks and services. Our
intelligence.
telecoms security portfolio supports these objectives, FIND OUT MORE
identifying the key challenges and pain points faced by your
customers, and giving you the insight to develop targeted
solutions that address these needs effectively.
10 KEY TRENDS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS 13