Analysis – Part II

Total Quality Methodologies in Engineering

INSE 6210

Zachary Patterson, Professor

Concordia Institute for Information Systems Engineering (CIISE)
18 October 2023
 Announcement
Perceived pace of lectures in INSE 6210 (n = 80)
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Frequency

40
20
0

Too slow Just right Too fast

Pace of Course
 Last Class

• Wrapped-up measurement
• Process Capability Measurement
• Project analysis
• Basic Probability
• Probability distribu:ons

3
 Today’s Class
• Project analysis continued
• Probability Distributions
• Statistical Inference
• Sampling distributions
• Confidence intervals
• Hypothesis testing
• Correlation
• Midterm Exam

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 Overview and Principles of Six Sigma

Six Sigma Methodology

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

How will you

What problem are Why is the What do you
What is the extent ensure that the
you trying to problem propose to do and
of the problem? problem stays
solve? occurring? why?
fixed?

1. Understand
4. Identify what to 7. Identify performance 9. Generate possible 11. Institutionalize &
customer & business
measure gaps solutions monitor solution(s)
requirements
2. Complete high-level, 10. Prioritize & select 12. Replicate & share
5. Plan and collect data 8. Validate root causes
as-is process map solution(s) best practices
3. Complete project 6. Determine baseline 13. Celebrate &
charter performance recognize success

Additional Topics

Drawn from the “The DMAIC Roadmap” Advanced Innovation Group Pro Excellence 2018
 Overview and Principles of Six Sigma

Six Sigma Methodology

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

Analyze Why is the problem occurring?

Step 7 • Brainstorming
• What are the potential causes of the
Identify performance • 5 Why
problem?
gaps • Fishbone diagrams
• Confidence intervals
• t-tests
Step 8 • How do you know these are the root causes? • Correlation & regression
Validate root causes • What are the validated root causes? • ANOVA
• Multi-vari studies
• Design of experiments
Tollgate success: Team understands the root causes and impact of the problem and ready to Improve.

Drawn from the “The DMAIC Roadmap” Advanced Innovation Group Pro Excellence 2018
 Overview and Principles of Six Sigma

Six Sigma Methodology

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

Analyze Why is the problem occurring?

Step 7 • Brainstorming
• What are the potential causes of the
Identify performance • 5 Why
problem?
gaps • Fishbone diagrams
• Confidence intervals
• t-tests
Step 8 • How do you know these are the
• Correlation & regression
Validate root root causes?
• ANOVA
causes • What are the validated root causes?
• Multi-vari studies
• Design of experiments
Tollgate success: Team understands the root causes and impact of the problem and ready to Improve.

Today!

Drawn from the “The DMAIC Roadmap” Advanced Innovation Group Pro Excellence 2018
 Analyze
Probability Distributions
 Random Variables

Random Variable
• Numerical description of the outcome of an
experiment
• RVs can be discrete or continuous

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 Random Variables
Random Variable - Example 1
• Experiment: sampling 10 parts and counting
number of defective parts
• Random Variable X: number of defective parts in
sample
Random Variable - Example 2
• Experiment: testing product for pass or fail
• Random Variable Y: 1 if outcome pass, 0 if
outcome fail

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 Probability Distributions

Probability Distribution Function (PDF)

• Characterization of possible values a random
variable can take along with the probability of
taking these values
• Can be discrete or continuous
• For RV X, probability distribution of X is f(x)
• xi represents the ith value of random variable X

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 Probability Distributions
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
• F(x), specifies the probability that the random
variable X will assume a value less than or
equal to a specified value, x
• P(X ≤ x)
• The probability that the random variable X is
less than or equal to x

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 Important Distributions

• Discrete
• Binomial
• Poisson
• Continuous
• Normal
• Exponential

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 Discrete Distributions
Binomial Distribution
• Describes probability of obtaining exactly x
“successes” in a sequence of n identical
experiments, called trials
• A success:
• Can be any one of two possible outcomes
(binomial) of each experiment
• In some situations, it might represent a
defective item, in others, a good item
• Probability of success in each trial, p
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 Discrete Distributions
Binomial Distribution

• p - probability of a success
• n - number of trials (items) in the sample
• x - number of successes for which the
probability is desired (0, 1, 2, ..., n)

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 Discrete Distributions
Binomial Distribution

• p - probability of a success
• n - number of trials (items) in the sample
• x - number of successes for which the
probability is desired (0, 1, 2, ..., n)

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Binomial Distribution

• p - probability of a success
• n - number of trials (items) in the sample
• x - number of successes for which the
probability is desired (0, 1, 2, ..., n)
Binomial Distribution
 Binomial Distribution
Example 5.4

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 Discrete Distributions
Poisson Distribution
• Related to binomial distribution
• When n is large relative to p, the Poisson
distribution can be used as an approximation
of the binomial
• 𝛌 = expected value or average number of
occurrences
• x = 0, 1, 2, 3, …
• e = 2.71828…

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 Poisson Dist. Excel
• POISSON.DIST(x, mean, cumulative)

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Continuous Distributions

• A continuous RV is defined over one or more

intervals of real numbers
• Infinite number of possible outcomes

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Continuous Distributions
• For continuous RVs, doesn’t make sense to
define a probability for a specific value of x
because there are an infinite number of them
• Probabilities are only defined over intervals
• The cumulative distribution function, F(x),
represents the probability P(X ≤ x)

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Continuous Distributions
Normal Distribution
• “Bell Curve”
• Symmetric
• Data often assumed normally distributed
• Averages are normally distributed

• Recall Chebyshev’s rules

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Continuous Distributions
Normal Distribution

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Continuous Distributions
“Standard” Normal Distribution
• μ=0
• σ2 = 1
• z used to represent this particular RV

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Standardizing Normal RVs
• If x is any value from a normal distribution
with mean μ and standard deviation σ, we may
easily convert it to an equivalent value from a
standard normal distribution using the following
formula:

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Continuous Distributions

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 Normal Dist. in Excel
• Excel function NORM.DIST(x, mean, standard
deviation, true)
• Calculates cumulative probability F(x) for a
specified mean and standard deviation
• The Excel function NORM.S.DIST(z)
• Calculates cumulative probability for standard
normal distribution as a function of z

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 Normal Distribution
Example 5.6
• Mean number of days (X) between MRI
equipment malfunctions is 1,020
• Standard deviation of 20 days
• Assuming a normal distribution, what is
probability that number of days between
adjustments will be:
• Less than 1,044 days?
• More than 980 days?
• Between 980 and 1044 days?

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 Normal Distribution
Example 5.6
• Less than 1,044 days?
• P(X ≤ 1044)? Use Appendix A

• P(X ≤ 1044) = P(z ≤ 1.2) = 0.8849

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 Normal Distribution
Example 5.6
• More than 980 days?

P(X ≤ 980) = P(z ≤ −2.0) = 0.02275

P(X > 980) = 1 − 0.02275 = 0.97725
• This can be found using Excel:
• 1 – NORM. DIST(980, 1020, 20, TRUE)

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 Normal Distribution
Example 5.6
• More than 980 days?
• This can be found using Excel:
• 1 – NORM. DIST(980, 1020, 20, TRUE)

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 Normal Distribution
Example 5.6
• Between 980 and 1044 days?

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 Normal CDF
Normal Inverse in Excel
• NORM.INV(probability, mean, standard_dev)
• Returns value of x for a given % of CDF
• Probability is cumulative probability

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 Exponential Distribution

• Models the time between randomly occurring

events, such as the time to or between failures of
mechanical or electrical components

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 Exponential Distribution
• Exponential PDF

• Exponential CDF

• λ = mean rate of failure

• e.g. 1 in 4,000 hours or 0.00025 failures per hour

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Exponential Dist. in Excel
• The Excel function EXPON.DIST(x, lambda, true)
can be used to compute cumulative
exponential probabilities.

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 Analysis
Statistical Inference – Sampling Distributions
 Statistical Inference
• Allows us to make probability statements about
the relationship between sample statistics and
population parameters and draw inferences
• To do this, we first need to understand sampling
distributions

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 Sampling Distributions
• Sample statistics such as 𝑥,̅ s, and p are random
variables that each have their own probability
distribution, mean, and variance
• Thus, different samples produce different
estimates of the population parameters
• These probability distributions are called
sampling distributions.
• Sampling distribution:
• The distribution of a statistic for all possible
samples of a fixed size
• In quality applications, 𝑥̅ and p of most interest
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 Sampling Distn. of Mean
• Sampling distribution of mean
• Expected value of the sample mean is the
population mean
• Standard deviation of the sample mean (called
the standard error of the mean) is the
population standard deviation divided by the
square root of the sample size

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 Central Limit Theorem
• Extraordinary theorem that makes the normal
distribution so powerful

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 CLT
Illustration

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 Central Limit Theorem
Example 5.9
• The mean length of shafts produced on a lathe
has historically been 50 inches, with a standard
deviation of 0.12 inches
• If a sample of 36 shafts is taken, what is the
probability that the sample mean is greater than
50.04 inches?

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 Sampling Distn. of Mean
Example 5.9
• If a sample of 36 shafts is taken, what is the
probability that the sample mean is greater than
50.04 inches?
• μ = 50, standard deviation of 0.12

• z = 2.0, the probability that the mean of a sample

of 36 items is greater than 50.04 inches is only
0.0228 (pretty small)
• NORM. DIST(50.04, 50, 0.02, TRUE)
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Sampling Distn. of p

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 Sampling Dist. of p
Example 5.10
• On average, 15 percent of the batches produced
do not meet specifications
• If 35 batches are tested, what is the probability
that 9 or fewer batches will be rejected?
• Sample proportion is p = 9/35 = 0.25714
• Sampling distribution of p has a mean 𝜋 of =
0.15 and standard deviation of:

• NORM.DIST(0.2574, 0.15, 0.06, TRUE) = 0.963

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 Analysis
Statistical Inference – Confidence Intervals
 Confidence Intervals
• Interval estimate of a population parameter that
also specifies the probability that the interval
contains the true population parameter
• The probability is the level of confidence,
denoted by 1 − α
• Suppose we draw a sample and find “a 90
percent CI for the mean is 10 ± 2.”
• 10 is the point estimate calculated from the
sample data, and 2 is the margin for error
• Interval estimate [8,12]
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 Confidence Intervals

• If we drew another sample, we would get a

different interval
• If we drew 100 samples, leading to 100
different interval estimates, we would expect
that 90 percent of them—the level of
confidence—would contain the true population
mean

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 Common CIs

• NB – need to use t-distribution when standard

deviation is estimated
• Confidence intervals can be computed for
other population parameters as well
• We won’t cover them here
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Student’s t-distribution
 CI Examples
Example 5.11
• A laboratory is required to ensure that
temperature in a sterilizer stays at an average
of at least 100°C
• Population standard deviation has been shown
to be stable at σ = 0.5
• Find the 95 percent confidence interval for the
population mean if a sample of 36 readings was
taken, and the sample mean was found to be 𝑥,̅
= 100.3
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 CI Examples
Example 5.11
• Find the 95 percent confidence interval for the
population mean if a sample of 36 readings was
taken, and the sample mean 𝑥̅ = 100.3

• Temperature of sterilizer has a mean that

exceeds 100°C and meets their requirements

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 CI Examples
Example 5.11
• Temperature of sterilizer has a mean that
exceeds 100°C and meets their requirements

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 CI Examples
Example 5.12
• Same situation as Ex. 5.11, but population
standard deviation is unknown
• Sample of n = 16 was taken
• Sample mean was found to be 𝑥̅ = 100.3
• Sample standard deviation s = 0.7
• Find 95% CI for population mean

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 CI Examples
Example 5.12
• Find 95% CI for population mean

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 CI Examples
Example 5.12
• Target temperature not in the 95% CI
• Why different result?

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 CI Examples
Example 5.12
• Target temperature not in the 95% CI
• Why different result?
• t-distribution has fatter tails

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 Analysis
Statistical Inference – Hypothesis Testing
 Hypothesis Testing
• Involves drawing inferences about two
contrasting propositions (hypotheses) about
value of a population parameter
• One proposition is hypothesized to be true in
the absence of contradictory data
• The null hypothesis, H0
• Other accepted if null hypothesis rejected
• Alternative hypothesis, H1

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 Hypothesis Testing
• Involves the following steps
1. Formulate a hypothesis to test
2. Select level of significance of test
3. Determine decision rule on which to base a
conclusion
4. Collect data & calculate a test statistic
5. Apply decision rule to test statistic & draw
conclusion

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 Level of Significance (𝛼)
• 𝛼 – alpha
• Risk we are willing to take in falsely rejecting
the null hypothesis, when it is in fact true
• AKA Type I Error: the probability of rejecting
the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis
is true
• AKA Significance level of test
• Commonly used levels for α are 0.10, 0.05, and
0.01
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 Level of Significance (𝛼)

• Drawing in class

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 Decision Rule

• Decision to reject, or fail to reject, H0 based on

comparing:
• Value of the test statistic to a “critical value”
from the sampling distribution of the test
statistic

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 Critical Value
• Determined by:
• null hypothesis
• chosen level of significance
• Divides a sampling distribution between
rejection region and non-rejection region
• One-tailed test: rejection region is either in
upper or lower tail with probability α
• Two-tailed test: rejection region is in both tails
with area of α/2

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 Critical Value

• Drawing in class

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Exam Format
§ Multiple Choice
ü Some theory and conceptual questions
ü Some calculations and interpretations

§ Short Answer
ü Some theory including figures
ü Some calculations
Main Points for Midterm Exam
§ Make Sure to Arrive Early
ü Please arrive at 5:30PM
§ What to Study
ü Some topics are more important than others.
ü Spend your time on the main topics covered in lectures and slides.
ü Don’t waste time on topics we haven’t emphasized in class.
§ How to Prepare for the midterm
ü Make a list of your problem areas.
ü Eliminate topics/problems not mentioned in lecture slides.
ü Use the lecture slides as a guide.
ü Read the relevant textbook chapters on the covered topics.
ü Practice questions at the end of chapters.
ü Bring a calculator on the day of the exam.
ü A formula sheet will be provided.

§ Midterm Exam Coverage: Lectures up to and including this week

 Readings

• Chapter 5 Evans & Lindsay

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