Chapter 9

Myanmar

September 2019

This chapter should be cited as

ERIA (2019), ‘Myanmar’, in Kusano, E. (ed.), Overview of Agri-food Industries in ASEAN:
Basic Information on the Food Value Chain. ERIA Research Project Report FY2018 no.12,
Jakarta: ERIA, pp.164-186.
 Chapter 9
Myanmar

1. Social and Economic Conditions

Population and Per Capita GDP
The population in Myanmar, 54 million people in 2018, accounts for 8% of the total population of the
ASEAN region, placing it fifth amongst the ASEAN countries. It is expected to reach 62 million people
by 2050 (Figure 9.1). The working-age people, between 15 and 65, are the majority of the country’s
population, and their numbers are expected to steadily increase until 2050. This trend may imply long-
term economic growth. Although Myanmar’s population is middling in size compared with the
populations of the other ASEAN states, the country’s strong prospect of population and economic
growth suggests a high potential as a consumption market for agri-food products.

Figure 9.1. Population by Age Group, Figure 9.2. Changes in GDP and Per Capita
2000–2060 GDP, 2018 and 2023
60
60 160
(million people)

(MK million/person)
50
Population

120
(MK trillion)

2
Median age

40 40 80
30 40 1
x 1.4 x 1.4
20
20 0 0
2018 2023 2018 2023
0 10
2000 2020 2040 2060 GDP Per capita GDP
0-14 15-64 65+ Median age Real (2018 level) Nominal
Source: United Nations Department MK = kyats (Myanmar currency).
of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA, 2017). GDP = gross domestic product,
Source: Estimates based on data from the
International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2018).

Real GDP and per capita real GDP are both expected to increase rapidly by 1.4 times from 2018 to
2023, (Figure 9.2). According to a projection of Myanmar’s population based on the level of per capita
GDP (Figure 9.3, Appendix 3.1), as per capita GDP approaches MK1.7 million, a boundary is crossed
whereby the number of people whose annual contributions to GDP are below that value will decrease.
By contrast, the number of people with per capita GDP above MK1.7 million will increase across a wide
range of the distribution. In particular, the population with personal incomes above MK2.6 million (i.e.
the 80th percentile) will expand by 1.9 times by 2023. This projection implies a rapid increase in the
number of high-income people. It will thus be necessary to establish a system for supplying agri-food
products to match the demand of this rapidly growing upper-income bracket.

164
 Figure 9.3. Estimated Population of Myanmar by Per Capita GDP, 2018 and 2023
A. Distribution of Population Changes B. Population Divided into Five GDP
Groups
3
2018 20

Population (million people)

2
Population (million people)

2023
1 15
Population in 2018
0
1 10
0
5
-1
Change (2018-2023) x 0.5 x 0.7 x 0.9 x 1.2 x 1.9
-2 0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 0 – 0.9 0.9 – 1.3 1.3 – 1.8 1.8 – 2.6 2.6 <
Per capita GDP in 2018 (MK million /person) Groups of per capita GDP in 2018 (MK million /person)

MK = kyats (Myanmar currency).

GDP = gross domestic product.
Note: The per capita GDP is based on constant 2018 prices. The bars in Figure B show the estimated
populations of the GDP groups in 2023. The numbers in the bars show the changes in these populations
from 2018 to 2023.
Source: Appendix 3.1.

The VA of FVC-related Industries

The VA of the wholesale and retail trade sectors has been a major component of Myanmar’s GDP; for
instance, it accounted for about 14% of GDP in 2015 (Figure 9.4). Meanwhile, VA of the other FVC-
related sectors, including agriculture, was comparatively small.
The annual growth rates of real VA in the fishing and agriculture industries were high, averaging 13%
–14% during 2000–2015, followed by the growth rates for the wholesale/retail and hotel-and-
restaurant industries (Figure 9.5). The growth rates of the FVC-related industries were higher than the
GDP growth rate, except for the food and beverage sector, which averaged about 9%. While the
proportion of GDP due to the VA of the food and beverage industries shrank, the proportions of GDP
due to the VA of most FVC-related industries expanded, especially those for fishing and agriculture.

Figure 9.4. The Proportion of VA in GDP, 2015 Figure 9.5. Average Annual Change in Real VA,
2000–2015
Agriculture Agriculture
Fishing Fishing
Food & beverages Food & beverages GDP
Wholesale & retail Wholesale & retail growth
rate
Hotels & restraurants Hotels & restraurants
0 5 10 15 0 3 6 9 12 15
(%) (%)

GDP = gross domestic product, VA = value added. GDP = gross domestic product, VA = value added.
Sources: Estimates based on data from Eora (2018). Sources: Estimates based on data from Eora (2018)
and the Internatioanl Monetary Fund (IMF, 2018).

The production values of the agriculture, fishing, and food-and-beverage industries increased
drastically during 2000–2015, with those of agriculture increasing by 5 times, those of fishing by 21
times, and those of food and beverages by 9 times (Figure 9.6). The part of production value due to
165
the VA (i.e. the VA rate) of these three industries remained low after 2010, at 10%–30%, unlike the VA
rates for the same industries in the other ASEAN countries covered in this report (Figure 9.7). By 2015,
the VA rate of agriculture in Myanmar reached 32%, that of fishing reached 20%, and that of the food
and beverage sector reached 14%. All three industries were highly dependent on intermediate inputs
from within their sectors and from other, related sectors; and their production did induce to a large
degree further production within those same industries.

The growth trend in the VA rate of agriculture suggests a decrease in that industry’s use of
intermediate inputs. Such a change may have been caused by an increase in the number of products
with lower cost of sales to revenue ratios, an improvement in the efficiency of the product mix,
and/or technical progress that resulted in savings on inputs.

The trend toward lower VA rates in the fishing and food-and-beverage industries during 2000–2010
may indicate a change in the production structure that included the further use of intermediate inputs
or a strengthening of ties with other industries.

Figure 9.6. Values of Domestic Production, 2000–2015 Figure 9.7. VA Rates, 2000–2015
3,000 100
Index (2000 = 100)

75
2,000
50
(%)

1,000
25

0 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Agriculture Fishing Food & beverages Agriculture Fishing
Value added Domestic intermediate input Food & beverages

Note: The results in the figure are based on real values. VA = value added.
Sources: Estimates based on Eora (2018) and the Sources: Estimates based on data from Eora
International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2018). (2018).

Intermediate Inputs in Agri-food Industries

Figure 9.8 shows which industries contributed to the growth of the agriculture, fishing, and food-and-
beverage industries from 2000 to 2015. Intermediate inputs into all three agri-food production sectors
came mostly from domestic sources, and increased drastically during that period. It is worth noting
that Myanmar rarely imported intermediate inputs for agri-food production.
Myanmar’s input structure largely differed from those of the other ASEAN countries. Most of the
intermediate inputs for agriculture, fishing, and food and beverages came from within those same
sectors.
The fact that, as in Malaysia, the food and beverage industries in Myanmar supplied most of their own
intermediate inputs suggests that the development of this sector was largely driven by the supply of
processed foods, rather than raw agricultural products. The growth of the food and beverage
industries in Myanmar induced a certain degree of development in agriculture through the industries’
demand for intermediate inputs.

166
 Figure 9.8. Sources of Intermediate Inputs, 2000–2015
A. Agriculture B. Fishing C. Food & Beverages
6,000 600 8,000
Imp Imp
Imp Others
Others Others
Food & beverages 6,000 Wholesale trade
4,000 400 Wholesale trade
Agriculture
(MK billion)

Petroleum etc. Petroleum etc.

Dom 4,000 Dom
Dom
2,000 Agriculture 200 Fishing Food & beverages
2,000

0 0 0
2000
2005
2010
2015

2000
2005
2010
2015

2000
2005
2010
2015
MK = kyats (Myanmar currency).
Dom = domestic supply, Imp = imports.
Notes: The values in these graphs are based on constant 2015 prices. ‘Petroleum etc.’ refers to the petroleum,
chemical, and non-metallic mineral product industries.
Sources: Estimates using data from Eora (2018) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2018).

The value of imports from foreign agricultural, fishing, and food-and-beverage sectors hovered around
the same levels between 2000 and 2015, and was very limited compared with the value of domestic
production (Figure 9.9). The value of imported agricultural, fishery, and food-and-beverage products
for use as intermediate inputs was larger than that destined for direct consumption. In other words,
Myanmar was more of an importer of raw materials than of final goods.
Imports from the other ASEAN countries were very limited compared with those from the ROW. We
can conclude that, as an importer, Myanmar had stronger linkages with the ROW than with the ASEAN
region, although even these linkages did not develop to a significant degree.

Figure 9.9. Values of Imports, by Purpose, 2000–2015

A. Agriculture B. Fishing C. Food & Beverages
4 1.5 5
3 4
1.0
3
2
(MK billion)

0.5 2
1 1
0 0.0 0
from from from from from from from from from from from from
ASEAN ROW ASEAN ROW ASEAN ROW ASEAN ROW ASEAN ROW ASEAN ROW
For direct For intermediate For direct For intermediate For direct For intermediate
consumption inputs consumption inputs consumption inputs
2000 2005 2010 2015

MK = kyats (Myanmar currency).

ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ROW = rest of the world.
Notes: The values of imports shown in these graphs are based on constant 2015 prices. They include imports
from foreign agricultural, fishing, and food-and-beverage sectors destined for domestic final consumption and
for use as intermediate inputs in all domestic industries.
Sources: Estimates based on data from Eora (2018) and the International Fund (IMF, 2018).

Destinations of Products of Agri-food Industries

Interindustry and intra-industry transactions in Myanmar had special characteristics during 2000–
2015, compared with those of the other countries covered in this report. Intra-industry transactions
167
accounted for the majority product flows in the agriculture, fishing, and food-and-beverage industries
(Figure 9.10). Interindustry transactions involving product flows from agriculture and fishing to the
food-and-beverage industries, and from the food-and-beverage to the hotel-and-restaurant
industries, gradually increased. The FVC in Myanmar expanded rapidly with regard to intra-industry
transactions, but increased only gently with regard to interindustry transactions.

Figure 9.10. Destinations of Domestically Produced and Imported Goods, 2000–2015

A. Agriculture B. Fishing C. Food & Beverages
8,000 800 10,000
Export Export Export
Fin Fin 8,000
6,000 Dom. consumption 600 Dom. consumption Fin
Dom. consumption
Others Others 6,000
4,000 400 Others
(MK billion)

Food & beverages Food & beverages

4,000 Hotels & restaurants
Int Int Int
2,000 Agriculture 200 Fishing 2,000
Food & beverages
0 Imp 0 0
Imp Imp
-2,000 -200 -2,000

2000
2005
2010
2015
2000
2005
2010
2015

2000
2005
2010
2015

MK = kyats (Myanmar currency).

Dom. = domestic.
Notes: The values in these graphs are based on constant 2015 prices. ‘Fin’ = final demand for domestic and
imported goods, ‘Int’ = intermediate demand for domestic and imported goods, and ‘Imp’ = the imports of
final and intermediate goods. Total demand = Fin + Int. Domestic production = Fin + Int - Imp.
Sources: Estimates based on data from Eora (2018) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2018).

Both final and intermediate demand grew steadily in the agriculture, fishing, and food-and-beverage
industries during 2000–2015. Exports dominated the final demand for agriculture, having increased
rapidly. By contrast, exports from the food and beverage industries were very limited in value
compared with the goods consumed domestically, although they did jump between 2010 and 2015.
Figure 9.11 shows that, between 2000 and 2015, comparatively large quantities of agricultural and
fishery products exported from Myanmar were used as intermediate inputs. The destinations of the
exports from the food and beverage industries were almost evenly divided between direct
consumption and use as intermediate inputs.
The primary destination of agricultural exports was the ROW, so we can conclude that Myanmar was
deepening its linkages with the ROW as an exporter of these products. Meanwhile, Myanmar exported
similar quantities of goods from the fishing and food-and-beverage industries to other ASEAN
countries and to the ROW. With regard to the fishing and food-and-beverage industries, Myanmar
contributed to the integration of the ASEAN region, and deepened its global linkages, as well.

168
 Figure 9.11. Values of Exports, by Purpose, 2000–2015
A. Agriculture B. Fishing C. Food & Beverages
1,600 10 50
1,200 8 40
6 30
800
(MK billion)

4 20
400 2 10
0 0 0
to to to to to to to to to to to to
ASEAN ROW ASEAN ROW ASEAN ROW ASEAN ROW ASEAN ROW ASEAN ROW
For direct For intermediate For direct For intermediate For direct For intermediate
consumption inputs consumption inputs consumption inputs

2000 2005 2010 2015

MK = kyats (Myanmar currency).

ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ROW = rest of the world.
Note: The values in these graphs are based on constant 2015 prices.
Sources: Estimates based on data from Eora (2018) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2018).

2. Linkages amongst FVC-related Industries

Final Demand in FVC-related Industries
First, let us see how final demand for domestic FVC-related industries induces the use of intermediate
inputs and affects production and VA in each industry.
Table 9.1 shows the composition of final demand during 2000–2015. Final demand was strongest in
the retail trade industry, followed by the hotel-and-restaurant, wholesale trade, and food-and-
beverage industries. The average annual growth of final demand in the retail trade industry, MK260
billion, outstripped the average rates in all the other FVC-related industries. The growth of final
demand in the retail trade industry was driven by household consumption. Similarly, household
consumption rapidly increased as a source of final demand in the hotel-and-restaurant, wholesale
trade, and food-and-beverage industries. It is worth noting that Myanmar’s agricultural exports to
both the ROW and the other ASEAN countries accounted for a large portion of final demand in that
sector; indeed, the role of exports in final demand in agriculture increased dramatically.

Table 9.1. Final Demand for Products/Services of FVC-related Industries, 2000–2015

(MK billion)
Domestic production of
Agriculture Fishing Food & beverages Wholesale trade Retail trade Hotels & restraurants
Final demand as Value Change Value Change Value Change Value Change Value Change Value Change
Domestic consupmtion
Household consumption 369 20 19 1 2,655 141 2,170 112 4,744 246 3,460 182
Other consumption 5 0 1 0 37 2 76 4 87 5 46 2
Capital formation 25 1 2 0 38 2 675 39 180 10 0 0
Export
Export to ASEAN 423 10 9 0 57 1 2 0 2 0 12 0
Export to ROW 1,705 77 13 0 94 2 21 0 10 -1 45 1
Total 2,527 109 44 2 2,880 148 2,945 155 5,022 260 3,562 185
Annual change rate (%) 7.6 5.7 10.8 11.5 11.0 11.1
MK = kyats (Myanmar currency).
ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, FVC = food value chain, ROW = rest of the world.
Notes: The values in this table are in constant 2015 prices. ‘Change’ refers to the average annual changes
estimated based on data for 2000–2015.
Source: Appendix 3.2.

169
Production and VA Induced by Final Demand
Table 9.2 shows sources of intermediate inputs during 2000–2015 that came from domestic and
foreign industries, and were destined for use in production in major FVC-related industries in
Myanmar. The table indicates that 10% of intermediate inputs in the hotel-and-restaurant industries
came from the domestic food-and-beverage industries, and 10% of the inputs in the food-and-
beverage industries came from domestic agriculture. This suggests that the hotel-and-restaurant and
food-and-beverage sectors can sequentially induce some agricultural production. The table also shows
that FVC-related industries in Myanmar rarely used inputs from foreign countries, compared with
domestically sourced inputs.
The data in Table 9.2 suggests stability in the country’s structure of inter-sector linkages. Meanwhile,
the intra-sector linkages could change significantly amongst all the FVC-related industries, other than
retail trade, in the medium to long term. In these industries, particularly fishing and food and
beverages, the intermediate inputs sourced from within each industry increased sharply, which
implies a strengthening of intra-sector linkages. If this structural change continues, the growth of final
demand in each FVC-related industry will further drive the development of that industry in the future.

Table 9.2. Sources of Intermediate Inputs in Major FVC-related Industries, 2000–2015

Domestic production of
Agriculture Fishing Food & beverages Wholesale trade Retail trade Hotel s & res tra ura nts
Input from Share (%) Change Share (%) Change Share (%) Change Share (%) Change Share (%) Change Share (%) Change
Domestic 52 0.31 0 0.00 10 0.08 0 0.00 0 0.00 1 0.05
Agriculture ASEAN 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
ROW 0 0.00 0 -0.02 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
Domestic 0 0.00 70 4.51 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 1 0.02
Fishing ASEAN 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
ROW 0 0.00 0 -0.01 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
Food & Domestic 3 -0.08 1 -0.11 56 2.67 0 0.00 1 0.02 10 0.20
ASEAN 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
beverages ROW 0 0.00 0 -0.03 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
Wholesale Domestic 2 -0.11 2 -0.30 5 -0.25 22 1.30 1 -0.01 5 -0.01
ASEAN 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
trade ROW 0 0.00 0 -0.01 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
Retail Domestic 0 -0.02 0 -0.06 0 -0.01 0 0.00 0 0.00 1 -0.01
ASEAN 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
trade ROW 0 0.00 0 -0.01 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
Hotels & Domestic 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 -0.01 0 0.00 0 0.01 11 0.63
ASEAN 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
restraurants ROW 0 0.00 0 -0.01 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, FVC = food value chain, ROW = rest of the world.
Notes: ‘Share’ refers to the intermediate inputs as a percentage of total inputs in 2015. ‘Change’ refers to the
average annual changes in the shares as estimated based on data for 2000–2015.
Source: Appendix 3.2.

Table 9.3 shows the VA directly and indirectly boosted by a 1% increase over the 2015 value in final
demand for domestic products and services through an increase in domestic production and
intermediate inputs. For example, a 1% increase in final demand in the food and beverage sector
generated a MK4.4 billion increase in the VA of agriculture, as well as a MK9.5 billion increase in the
VA of the food-and-beverage sector itself.
Increases in final demand in downstream sectors of the FVC, particularly in the food and beverage
industries, had some impact on the VA of upstream sectors. This result suggests that interventions in
the food and beverage industries do contribute to the development of agriculture.

170
Final demand in downstream industries had a notable effect on the VA of fishing, as the size of the
fishing market is very limited. For instance, the amount of VA in the fishing sector induced by a 1%
increase in final demand in the food and beverage industries (MK0.57 billion) exceeded VA driven by
the final demand in the fishing sector itself (MK0.28 billion). Similarly, the hotel and restaurant
industries can also have a measurable effect on fishing. An increase in final demand in these
downstream sectors can thus be an effective way to develop the fishing sector.
The inducement effect of final demand in the wholesale and retail trade sectors on the other four
sectors discussed above was very small, as is shown in Table 9.3. Meanwhile, Table 9.2 indicates that
FVC-related industries, especially the food-and-beverage and hotel-and-restaurant industries, did
depend on inputs from the wholesale trade industry. It is suggested the services provided by the
wholesale/retail trade sectors are necessary, but alone not sufficient, to automatically drive the
development of the FVC-related industries.

Table 9.3. VA Induced by a 1% Increase in Final Demand, 2015

(MK billion)
1% increase in final demand for
Agriculture Fishing Food & Wholesale Retail Hotels &
Induced value added in beverages trade trade restraurants
Agriculture 17.26 0.00 4.39 0.04 0.13 0.98
Fishing 0.04 0.28 0.57 0.00 0.03 0.22
Food & beverages 0.57 0.01 9.50 0.02 0.16 1.34
Wholesale trade 1.51 0.03 3.53 23.06 0.95 2.35
Retail trade 0.15 0.00 0.16 0.10 39.66 0.54
Hotels & restraurants 0.05 0.00 0.14 0.09 0.14 20.69
MK = kyats (Myanmar currency).
VA = value added.
Source: Appendix 3.2.

The Relationship amongst the Number of Employees, Per Capita Compensation, and Production
Now let us consider how an increase in production relates to changes in the number of employees
and per capita employee compensation in an industry. According to figures 9.12 and 9.13, the
agricultural sector in 2015 was characterized by a considerably large number of employees, low labour
productivity, and low per capita compensation compared with other FVC-related industries. By
contrast, the food and beverage industries had a limited number of employees, and the same levels
of labour productivity and per capita compensation as the average levels in Myanmar.

171
 Figure 9.12. Number of Employees, Figure 9.13. Gross VA per Capita,
by Sector, 2015 by Sector, 2015
Agriculture 50%
Fishing 2% Agriculture
Food & beverages 2% Fishing
Wholesale & retail 13% Food & beverages
Hotels & restraurants 1% Wholesale & retail
All sectors 100% Hotels & restraurants
All sectors
0 10 20 30
(million people) 0 2 4 6 8 10
Total (MK billion/person)
Retail Employee compensation, Per capita
Wholesale Surplus and mixed income, Per capita
Other gross value added, Per capita

Sources: International Labour Organization MK = kyats (Myanmar currency).

(ILO, 2019); Appendix 3.3. VA = value added.
Sources: Estimates based on data from Eora (2018)
and the International Labour Organization (ILO, 2019);
Appendix 3.3.

Figure 9.14 illustrates the relationship amongst the number of employees, per capita compensation,
and production during 2000–2015. Figure 9.14 A depicts the proportion of the average annual rate of
change in production in each sector that was attributable to total employee compensation. The values
in the figure differ by industry. For instance, there was a rapid increase of production in fishing (22%)
and a slower rise of production in agriculture (10%). The contribution of employee compensation to
production was about 0.5%–1.0% in the agriculture, fishing, and food-and-beverage industries, whilst
that for the wholesale/retail trade and hotel-and-restaurant industries was in a higher range: 3%–4%.
The average annual rates of change in the total value of employee compensation were within the
range of 11%–13% in all of the observable FVC-related sectors (Figure 9.14 B). There are two factors
that determine the changes in the total value of employee compensation: the number of employees
and per capita compensation. In the agricultural sector, the number of employees decreased, while
per capita compensation increased. Although the growth rate of total compensation was similar to
the rates of other industries, per capita compensation grew faster, accompanied by a decrease in the
number of employees. In other sectors, both per capita compensation and the number of employees
steadily increased.
These results suggest the production growth can accompany a rise in per capita compensation in many
FVC-related industries, particularly the agricultural sector. Another notable point is the decline in the
size of the agricultural workforce. A large number of employees, low-level labour productivity, low per
capita compensation, and steep growth in per capita compensation, together with a decrease in the
number of employees, all imply the existence of a labour surplus in the agricultural sector. Any
interindustry movement of labourers would be deeply connected to the productivity and efficient
development of agriculture. The hotel and restaurant industries, which had a remarkably high per
capita compensation and a sharp increase in the number of employees, seemed to have been one of
the more attractive sectors in terms of labour absorption, although the number of employees was
actually very limited.

172
 Figure 9.14. Changes in Production and Employee Compensation, 2000–2015
A. Breakdown of the Average Annual B. Breakdown of the Average Annual Rates
Rates of Change in Production of Change in Employee Compensation

Agriculture & fishing

Agriculture & fishing
(Agriculture)
(Agriculture)
(Fishing) N.A.
(Fishing)
Food & beverages N.A.
Food & beverages
Wholesale & retail
Wholesale & retail
Hotels & restraurants
Hotels & restraurants
All sectors
All sectors
-3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 (%)
(%)
Number of employees
Employee compensation Employee compensation, Per capita
Other factors Employee compensation

Notes: Other factors include changes in the value added (VA), other than from employee compensation, and
changes in intermediate inputs. The data is from selected years during 2000–2015.
Source: Appendix 3.3.

3. Supply–Demand Balance of Agri-food Products

Supply–Demand Structure
Figure 9.15 shows the structure of domestic commerce and foreign trade in 2004–2013. There are two
graphs, each of which is divided into four quadrants defined by two criteria: whether agri-food goods
were produced domestically or in foreign markets and whether they were consumed domestically or
in foreign markets. In 9.15 A and 9.15 B, the circles are scattered across three of the four quadrants.
The circles vary in size according to the volumes produced of the goods they represent. The pattern
of circles is the same in both graphs, but the circles in Figure 9.15 A are colour-coded to indicate the
agri-food sector, whilst those in Figure 9.15 B are colour-coded to reflect growth rates.

The top side of each graph represents goods that were mostly or completely consumed domestically,
and the right side represents goods that were mostly or completely produced domestically. Most of
the agri-food products are concentrated in the first (upper-right) quadrant, representing products that
were produced and consumed in the domestic market (i.e. domestic-oriented goods). There is also a
few circles scattered in the second (upper-left) quadrant, representing goods that were produced in
foreign markets and consumed domestically (i.e. import-oriented goods), and in the fourth (lower-
left) quadrant, representing goods that were produced domestically and consumed in foreign markets
(i.e. export-oriented goods. Circles are unobservable in the third quadrant, representing goods that
were imported for re-exportation (i.e. trade-oriented goods). The graphs show that the agri-food
industry in Myanmar was domestic-oriented, similar to the agri-food industries in Lao PDR and
Cambodia, but with more export activity than in those two countries.

173
 Figure 9.15. Classification of Agri-food Products by Supply–Demand Balance, 2004–2013
A. By IC1 Group, Annual Averages B. By Average Annual Growth Rate

Amount consumed domestically (%)

Amount consumed domestically (%)

100 100

75 75

50 50

25 25

0 0

0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100
Amount produced domestically (%) Amount produced domestically (%)
Vegetable products Livestock products
Aquatic products Processed food, nei < -5% -5%–5% > 5%

IC1 = item category level 1, nei = not elsewhere included.

Notes: Each circle represents a Food Balance Sheet (FBS) item as designated by FAOSTAT. The sizes of the circles
express the quantity of total supply, with the proportions estimated based on quantitative data. ‘IC1’ comprises
the author’s classifications of broad agri-food product categories (see Appendix 2.2). In these graphs, the
percentage of goods not produced/consumed domestically are produced/consumed in foreign markets. Data
classification: FBS items.
Sources: FAO (2019); Appendix 3.4.

Table 9.4 shows that, during 2004–2013, most agri-food products, particularly cereals (11), oil and
sugar crops (12), and vegetables (13), were produced and consumed mainly in the domestic market.
A comparatively large quantity of fat and oils (42) was imported, followed by cereals and milk (22).
The exportation of vegetables (13), mainly beans, was relatively large. The second- and third-largest
export goods were cereals and marine fishes (32), respectively. The supply–demand structure in
Myanmar had some peculiar features, such as a high self-sufficiency in milk (22) and a high import
dependency for alcoholic beverages (44), unlike the other ASEAN countries covered in this report.
Annual change data indicates a soaring production and domestic supply of vegetables, oil and sugar
crops, and cereals. Both the production and domestic supply of meat (21), marine fishes, and
freshwater fishes (31) grew to comparatively large volumes. The increases in the importation of
processed food, nei—such as fat and oils, sugar, and alcoholic beverages—were notable compared
with the changes in the amounts of production of these items.

174
 Table 9.4. Supply–Demand Balance of Agri-food Products, 2004–2013
(1,000 metric tons)

2004–2013 average Average annual change, 2004–2013

Domestic Domestic
Production Import Export Production Import Export
IC1 IC2 supply supply
11 Cereals 21,732 20,832 201 636 227 325 21 35
12 Oil and sugar crops 12,071 12,009 2 64 411 410 0 0
1 Vegetable
13 Vegetables 9,826 8,503 7 1,331 475 417 -1 56
products 14 Fruits and nuts 2,195 2,147 52 101 77 64 -11 2
15 Stimulants and spices 155 176 32 12 7 15 7 -1
21 Meat 1,694 1,700 6 0 153 154 1 0
2 Livestock
22 Milk 1,363 1,471 107 0 97 90 -7 0
products 23 Eggs 315 316 0 0 31 31 0 0
31 Freshwater fishes 1,476 1,469 0 8 135 135 0 0
32 Marine fishes 1,636 1,318 5 323 149 111 1 39
3 Aquatic 33 Crustaceans 149 4 2 147 -16 1 1 -17
products 34 Molluscs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
35 Aquatic animals, nei 9 7 0 2 1 0 0 1
36 Aquatic plants 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
41 Sugar 1,190 1,213 66 11 27 33 18 1
4 Processed 42 Fat and oils 865 1,290 426 1 36 61 25 0
food, nei 43 Food, nei 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
44 Alcoholic beverages 14 83 71 1 0 18 18 0
IC1 = item category level 1, IC2 = item category level 2, nei = not elsewhere included.
Note: ‘IC1’ and ‘IC2’ comprise the author’s classifications of broader product categories and more specific
groups, respectively (Appendix 2.2). This table is based on an aggregation of all the data available from
FAOSTAT’s Food Balance Sheet (FBS). Data classification: FBS items.
Sources: FAO (2019); Appendix 3.4.

Table 9.5 shows FBS items (as designated by FAOSTAT) listed in descending order of total supply
quantity within each category in 2004–2013, corresponding to the quadrants in Figure 9.15. The
products existing in large quantities—such as rice, sugar cane, other vegetables, and beans—are
concentrated in the column for domestic-oriented products. Most products are in the cells
representing stable or expanding markets of domestic- or import-oriented products.
Beans were notable as a domestic-oriented product by its large quantity of supply and rapid growth.
Aquatic products such as marine fishes (other than demersal and pelagic fishes), milk, and pulses
(other than beans and peas) were also remarkable for their accelerated growth. With regard to export-
oriented products, the supply of minor oil crops rose sharply, while that of crustaceans dramatically
decreased. Palm oil, followed by beer and coffee, are examples of rapidly expanding import-oriented
products during that period.

175
 Table 9.5. Total Quantities of Supply for Product Categories, in Descending Order, 2004–2013
(1,000 metric tons)
Category Domestic-oriented Export-oriented Import-oriented Trade-oriented
Provided by Domestic market Foreign market
Consumed in Domestic market Foreign market Domestic market Foreign market
Change Rank IC2 FBS items Quantity IC2 FBS items Quantity IC2 FBS items Quantity IC2 FBS items Quantity
1 13 Beans 3,058 12 Oilcrops, other 11 42 Palm oil 393
Expanding
Annual change rate, 2004–2013 (%)

2 32 Marine fish, other 1,632 44 Beer 65

r>5

3 31 Freshwater fish 1,476 15 Coffee and products 34

4 22 Milk - excluding butter 1,471 11 Barley and products 19
5 13 Pulses, other and products 1,241 44 Wine 2
1 11 Rice (milled equivalent) 19,654 15 Spices, other 7 41 Sugar (raw equivalent) 40
-5 < r < 5

2 12 Sugar cane 9,004 14 Apples and products 4

Stable

3 13 Vegetables, other 3,457 43 Infant food 1

4 14 Fruits, other 1,341 15 Cocoa beans and products 0.9
5 13 Onions 1,008 21 Meat, other 0.5
1 42 Ricebran oil 70 33 Crustaceans 151 42 Oilcrops oil, other 26
Shrinking

2 42 Palmkernel oil 1
r < -5

3
4
5
FBS = Food Balance Sheet (FAOSTAT), IC2 = item category level 2, r = average annual change rate.
Notes: The values in this table represent the averages for 2004–2013. Data classification: FBS items.
Sources: FAO (2019); Appendix 3.4.

Trade Prices and Volumes

The export prices of aquatic products such as raw and processed molluscs (34), raw aquatic animals,
nei (35), and raw crustaceans (33) were remarkably high during 2014–2016 (Table 9.6). The export
values of raw crustaceans were relatively high, compared with the values of these other products. A
comparatively large amount of raw marine fishes (32) were also exported at high prices. We can
conclude that raw crustaceans and marine fishes that were exported in large quantities had high
enough values to induce active trade.
The import prices of some aquatic products (including raw fishes, nei [38]; raw marine fishes; and
processed freshwater fishes [31]), raw sugar (41), alcoholic beverages (44), and processed stimulants
and spices (15) exceeded those of many other products. The import values of most of these high-
priced products were quite small.
It is not clear from Table 9.6 whether primary or processed products were traded at higher prices.
That would have basically depended on the differences between exports and imports, amongst IC2
product groups, and in the composition of the more complex products within each IC2 group. As with
the other ASEAN countries, however, it is evident that Myanmar’s import prices for sugar and for a
few raw aquatic products were higher than those for processed products.

176
 Table 9.6. Prices and Values of Exported/Imported Agri-food Products, 2014–2016
Price ($/kg) Value ($ million)
Export Import Export Import
Primary Processed Primary Processed Primary Processed Primary Processed
IC1 IC2 products products products products products products products products
11 Cereals 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.9 439 107 4 187
1 Vegetable 12 Oil and sugar crops 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.1 271 1 6 1
13 Vegetables 1.3 1.8 0.6 1.3 1,138 15 17 6
products 14 Fruits and nuts 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.6 234 0.3 43 6
15 Stimulants and spices 2.8 2.3 3.7 4.4 53 0.5 7 48
2 Livestock 21 Meat — 3.4 — 3.9 0.0 0.5 0.0 4
22 Milk 0.9 — 1.1 2.4 0.0 0.0 9 94
products 23 Eggs — — 1.5 — 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0
31 Freshwater fishes 1.8 2.1 1.1 5.2 141 4 0.2 1
32 Marine fishes 3.1 1.4 5.9 0.2 168 2 3 3
3 Aquatic 33 Crustaceans 4.0 1.9 0.4 — 117 15 0.2 0.0
34 Molluscs 4.0 5.3 2.9 — 22 0.6 0.2 0.1
products 35 Aquatic animals, nei 4.8 — — 3.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 32
36 Aquatic plants — — 3.9 — 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
38 Fishes, nei 2.1 2.6 7.7 3.0 24 6 0.1 0.2
41 Sugar 2.7 0.8 5.9 1.0 4 349 0.1 503
4 Processed 42 Fat and oils — 1.7 — 1.3 0.0 2 0.0 532
food, nei 43 Food, nei — 0.1 — 2.5 0.0 0.6 0.0 100
44 Alcoholic beverages — 0.1 — 5.4 0.0 2 0.0 6
IC1 = item category level 1, IC2 = item category level 2, kg = kilogram, nei = not elsewhere included.
Notes: This table shows the averages for 2014–2016. The values indicated for exports are based on ‘free on
board’ (FOB) prices, and those for imports are based on ‘cost, insurance, and freight’ (CIF) prices. Data category:
IC2 groups based on the Broad Economic Categories (BEC) classifications of primary products (11) and processed
products (12).
Sources: UNSD (2017); Appendix 3.6.

4. The Competitiveness of Each Product in the ASEAN Region

Commodities Imported by ASEAN Countries
Tables 9.7 and 9.8 provide information about the agri-food products imported by ASEAN countries
from Myanmar in 2014–2016. ASEAN countries imported many of these products from Myanmar
more cheaply than they did from other ASEAN+6 countries (Table 9.7). Roughly 70%–100% of items in
the IC2 groups were imported as low-priced products. Myanmar exported notably more to Thailand
and Malaysia than to the other ASEAN states; its next-largest exports went to countries with similar
values, except for Brunei, Lao PDR, and Cambodia (Table 9.8).
As shown in Table 9.7, other ASEAN countries imported 2% of the vegetables (13) in the low-price
range in 2014–2016, a significantly greater quantity than had been estimated based on approximate
lines. Meanwhile, the products imported by other ASEAN countries in smaller quantities than had
been estimated are more conspicuous in Table 9.7. Such products include milk (22) and fat and oils
(42) in the low-price range; cereals (11) and sugar (41) in low- and mid-price ranges; and food, nei
(43), in low- and high-price ranges.

177
 Table 9.7. Prices and Values of Products Imported by ASEAN Countries, by IC2 Group, 2014–2016
Number of imported Number of products deviated from approx. lines (%)
products by price ranges (%) Imported larger Imported smaller
Price Value Price ranges Price ranges Price ranges
IC1 IC2 ( $/kg ) ( $ m i l l i on) Low Mid High Low Mid High Low Mid High Obs.
11 Cereals 0.9 9 72 14 14 0 0 0 28 7 0 29
1 Vegetable 12 Oil and sugar crops 1.1 23 91 0 9 0 0 0 17 0 0 23
13 Vegetables 1.0 182 85 6 9 2 0 0 7 1 0 85
products 14 Fruits and nuts 1.1 11 84 11 5 0 0 0 18 2 2 57
15 Stimulants and spices 1.7 9 94 3 3 0 0 0 12 3 0 34
2 Livestock 21 Meat 0.9 0.0 — — — — — — — — — 0
22 Milk 1.8 0.1 100 0 0 0 0 0 57 0 0 7
products 23 Eggs — — — — — — — — — — — 0
31 Freshwater fishes 1.7 1 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12
32 Marine fishes 2.0 10 89 7 4 0 0 0 7 0 0 28
3 Aquatic 33 Crustaceans 6.7 30 70 20 10 0 0 0 3 0 0 30
34 Molluscs 2.2 8 90 5 5 0 0 0 15 0 0 20
products 35 Aquatic animals, nei 1.4 0.1 100 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 6
36 Aquatic plants 0.9 0.0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
38 Fishes, nei 2.1 39 95 5 0 0 0 0 24 0 0 21
41 Sugar 1.2 4 83 11 6 0 0 0 28 6 0 18
4 Processed 42 Fat and oils 1.1 0.2 100 0 0 0 0 0 38 0 0 8
food, nei 43 Food, nei 4.9 1.0 75 0 25 0 0 0 25 0 13 8
44 Alcoholic beverages 1.4 0.7 100 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 0 8
ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, IC1 = item category level 1, IC2 = item category level 2, kg =
kilogram, nei = not elsewhere included.
Notes: The prices and values represent the averages for 2014–2016. ‘Price’ refers to the import price, including
cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) added to the tariff established by the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement
(ATIGA). ‘Value’ refers to the imported value (CIF) without the tariff. See Appendix 3.6 for price ranges and
approximate lines. The products for which the externally studentized residual was significantly large or small at
the 10% level were counted. ‘Obs.’ refers to the number of detailed commodities classified according to the
Broad Economic Categories (BEC) three-digit category numbers and used for applying approximation lines. Data
category: FAOSTAT Commodity List (FCL) and adjusted groups under the International Standard Statistical
Classification of Aquatic Animals and Plants (ISSCAAP), classified under BEC 111, 112, 121, and 122.
Sources: UNSD (2017); Appendix 3.6.

Table 9.8. Prices and Values of Products Imported into the ASEAN Region, by Country, 2014–2016
Number of imported Number of products deviated from approx. lines (%)
products by price ranges (%) Imported larger Imported smaller
Price Value Price ranges Price ranges Price ranges
Importer ( $/kg ) ( $ m i l l i on) Low Mid High Low Mid High Low Mid High Obs.
Singapore 1.2 24 93 5 2 0 0 0 0 28 1 122
Brunei 1.8 0.3 75 25 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 8
Malaysia 1.3 86 87 6 6 1 0 0 0 9 0 108
Thailand 1.4 108 81 10 9 0 0 0 1 10 5 111
Indonesia 0.7 51 89 6 6 6 0 0 6 11 0 18
Philippines 0.9 10 83 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
Viet Nam 2.5 50 69 6 25 0 0 0 0 6 0 16
Lao PDR — 0.0 — — — — — — — — — 0
Camboodia 0.9 0.1 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 2
Myanmar 1.6 0.0 75 0 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, kg = kilogram, nei = not elsewhere included.
Notes: The prices and values represent the averages for 2014–2016. ‘Price’ refers to the import price, including
cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) added to the tariff established by the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement
(ATIGA). ‘Value’ refers to the imported value (CIF) without the tariff. See Appendix 3.6 for price ranges and
approximate lines. The products for which the externally studentized residual was significantly large or small at
the 10% level were counted. ‘Obs.’ refers to the number of detailed commodities classified according to the
Broad Economic Categories (BEC) three-digit category numbers and used for applying approximation lines. Data
category: FAOSTAT Commodity List (FCL) and adjusted groups under the International Standard Statistical
Classification of Aquatic Animals and Plants (ISSCAAP), classified under BEC 111, 112, 121, and 122.
Sources: UNSD (2017); Appendix 3.6.

178
Goods Imported in Smaller/Larger Quantities than Estimated Based on Prices: Non-price
Competitiveness in the ASEAN Region
Myanmar’s vegetable products in the low-price range, especially vegetables (13) such as dried beans,
pulses, nes, and bambara beans, tended to be imported in great quantities by other ASEAN countries
in 2014–2016, considering their prices (Table 9.9). Regarding aquatic products, crustaceans (33) such
as shrimps, prawns, and crabs, nei, and fishes, nei (38), were imported in significantly larger volumes
than had been estimated based on their import prices. It might be beneficial to seek opportunities to
develop further export markets for these products. Moreover, research on the causes of such active
import demand, including production and sales methods, would help identify pathways toward
increasing the sales of other items.
Research on the characteristics of the goods actively exported by other countries to Myanmar might
also trigger a reconsideration of production and marketing strategies for domestic products that could
compete with goods produced by other states in the ASEAN region, for instance: soya paste,
miscellaneous aquatic products, and infant food from Malaysia; breakfast cereals from Thailand; sugar
confectionery from Viet Nam; and potatoes, nutmeg/mace/cardamons, condensed whey, whole
condensed milk, salmons/trouts/smelts, food preparations, nes, and sesame oil from Singapore.1
There were also many products for which import quantities were significantly smaller during 2014–
2016, considering their prices. Examples included vegetable products in all price ranges; and livestock
and aquatic products and processed food, nei, in the low-price range. Although these products were
certainly exported to other ASEAN countries, they might not have been as competitive as the same
products from other ASEAN and +6 countries. If these items are to be promoted as export goods
destined for other ASEAN countries, active and intensive product differentiation will be necessary.

1
For reference, see tables 2.9 to 9.9. See also Table A4.2 on major exports from the +6 countries.
179
Table 9.9. Goods Imported by ASEAN Countries in Smaller/Larger Quantities than Estimated Based on Prices, in Ascending Order of P-values, 2014–2016

A. Larger Quantities of Exports than Estimated Based on Prices

Price ranges
Low Mid High
Rank

Impor- IC2 Price Value p-value Impor- IC2 BEC Detailed commodity name Price Value p-value Impor- IC2 BEC Detailed commodity name Price Value p-value
BEC Detailed commodity name ($/kg)
IC1 ter ($ million) ter ($/kg) ($ million) ter ($/kg) ($ million)
1 IDN 13 112 Beans, dry 1.0 41 0.05
1 Vegetable 2 MYS 13 112 Pulses, nes 1.0 8 0.10
3 THA 13 112 Beans, dry 1.1 28 0.13
products 4 PHL 13 112 Bambara beans 0.5 0.2 0.17
5 SGP 13 112 Pulses, nes 1.7 2 0.18
1
2 Livestock 2
3
products 4
5
1 THA 38 112 Fish and fish products, nei 0.4 22 0.13 MYS 33 112 Shrimps, prawns 6.7 6 0.12 VNM 33 112 Crabs, nei 10.2 0.9 0.11
3 Aquatic 2 MYS 33 112 Shrimps and prawns, nei 6.3 2 0.15 THA 33 112 Lobsters, spiny-rock lobsters 17.3 1 0.20
3
products 4
5
1
4 Processed 2
3
food, nei 4
5

180
B. Smaller Quantities of Exports than Estimated Based on Prices

Price ranges
Low Mid High
Rank

Impor- IC2 Price Value p-value Impor-

BEC Detailed commodity name ($/kg) IC2 Price Value p-value Impor- IC2 BEC Detailed commodity name Price Value p-value
BEC Detailed commodity name ($/kg)
IC1 ter ($ m illion) ter ($ m illion) ter ($/kg) ($ m illion)
1 SGP 13 112 Pumpkins, squash and gourds 0.5 0.000 0.00 THA 15 122 Chocolate products nes 10.0 0.000 0.00 THA 14 122 Juice, plum, single strength 13.0 0.000 0.05
1 Vegetable 2 SGP 14 122 Juice, plum, single strength 1.3 0.000 0.00 THA 14 122 Fruit, prepared nes 5.3 0.000 0.00 SGP 14 122 Juice, citrus, single strength 1.6 0.000 0.13
3 MYS 14 122 Juice, fruit nes 0.6 0.008 0.01 SGP 13 112 Vegetables, fresh nes 2.8 0.000 0.01
products 4 SGP 14 112 Fruit, stone nes 1.4 0.000 0.01 THA 11 122 Pastry 8.7 0.000 0.01
5 SGP 11 122 Bread 1.4 0.025 0.02 THA 11 122 Cereals, breakfast 4.8 0.000 0.09
1 SGP 22 112 Milk, whole fresh cow 1.1 0.000 0.00
2 Livestock 2 SGP 22 122 Milk, whole condensed 1.2 0.000 0.04
3 SGP 22 112 Milk, skimmed cow 0.9 0.000 0.06
products 4 THA 22 122 Milk, whole condensed 2.2 0.000 0.09
5
1 THA 34 112 Molluscs, nei 3.6 0.000 0.00
3 Aquatic 2 SGP 38 122 Fish and fish products, nei 11.0 0.000 0.00
3 SGP 38 122 Fish and fish products, nei 1.8 0.022 0.02
products 4 SGP 32 122 Miscellaneous pelagic fishes 1.4 0.000 0.02
5 SGP 34 112 Molluscs, nei 6.3 0.000 0.03
1 SGP 41 122 Beverages, non alcoholic 1.2 0.000 0.01 THA 41 122 Sugar confectionery 7.0 0.000 0.00 IDN 43 122 Food preparations, nes 50.5 0.000 0.05
4 Processed 2 BRN 43 122 Food preparations, nes 4.9 0.000 0.01 THA 41 122 Beverages, non alcoholic 5.8 0.000 0.17
3 SGP 42 121 Fat, nes, prepared 0.9 0.000 0.01
food, nei 4 THA 42 122 Margarine, liquid 7.0 0.000 0.01
5 SGP 42 121 Oil, coconut (copra) 1.4 0.000 0.03
BEC = Broad Economic Categories, United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), BRN = Brunei, IC1 = item category level 1, IC2 = item category level 2, IDN = Indonesia, kg =
kilogram, MYS = Malaysia, nei = not elsewhere included, nes = not elsewhere specified, PHL = Philippines, SGP = Singapore, THA = Thailand, VNM = Viet Nam.
Notes: The values listed in this table represent the averages for 2014–2016. The top five agri-food products within each IC1 grouping are listed in ascending order of p-value
< 0.2, under the BEC as follows: primary products mainly for industry (111), primary products mainly for household consumption (112), processed products mainly for industry
(121), and processed products mainly for household consumption (122). ‘Price’ refers to the CIF (cost, insurance, and freight) import price added to the tariff set by the
ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA). ‘Value’ refers to the imported value (CIF) without the tariff. The expression ‘p-value’ refers to the p-value of the t-stat against the
externally studentized residual. See Appendix 3.6. Data category: FAOSTAT Commodity List and the adjusted groups under the International Standard Statistical Classification
of Aquatic Animals and Plants (ISSCAAP) classified under BEC 111, 112, 121, and 122.
Sources: UNSD (2017); Appendix 3.6.

181
Inter-commodity and Inter-country Comparisons of Land/Feed Productivity
The median land productivity of vegetables (13) were the highest of the agri-food products, followed
by fruits and nuts (14), in 2011–2015 (Table 9.10). The ratio of the yield is an indicator of comparative
advantage in the ASEAN region; that value for all IC2 groups in the category of vegetable products
were at similar levels during this period, with the exception of stimulants and spices (15).

Table 9.10. Median Levels of Productivity and Resource Allocation in Each IC2 Group
Land productivity Ratio of the yield Area harvested
IC1 IC2 Chg ( %)
( MK m i l l i on/ha ) Index ( Y i /Y i ' ) Chg ( %) ( 1,000 ha ) Chg ( %) Obs.
11 Cereals 0.8 3 0.8 -1 229 1 6
12 Oil and sugar crops 0.7 0 0.9 0 197 0 8
1 Vegetable 13 Vegetables 3.2 0 0.9 -2 66 1 10
products 14 Fruits and nuts 2.7 0 0.8 1 29 2 6
15 Stimulants and spices 1.4 4 0.6 -1 47 1 4
Total 1.3 2 0.8 -1 90 1 34
Feed productivity Ratio of the yield Producing animals
IC1 IC2 (MK m illion/ 100 PU) Chg ( %) Index ( Y i /Y i ' ) Chg ( %) ( m i l l i on PU ) Chg ( %) Obs.
21 Meat 0.8 — 0.9 — 6 9 9
2 Livestock 22 Milk 0.4 — 0.5 — 6 8 4
products 23 Eggs 1.6 — 1.2 — 14 7 2
Total 0.8 — 0.8 — 6 9 15
MK = kyats (Myanmar currency).
ha = hectare, IC1 = item category level 1, IC2 = item category level 2, PU = unit of pig feed requirements, Yi =
yield in Myanmar, Yi’ = average yield in other ASEAN countries.
Notes: Land/feed productivity, ratio of the yield, and area harvested/producing animals represent the average
values for 2011–2015. ‘Chg’ refers to the average annual rates of change during 2006–2015 (%). ‘Obs.’ refers to
the number of items in the FAOSTAT Commodity List (FCL). The data on land productivity was deflated to
constant 2015 kyat prices. The figures are estimates based on all the FAOSTAT data under the ‘Production’ rubric.
Data category: FCL.
Sources: FAO (2019); Appendix 3.7.

In the IC2 vegetables (13) group, the land productivity and ratios of the yield of garlic, fresh vegetables,
nes, and dried onions were higher than for the other products during the same period (Table 9.11).
The productivity and ratio of the yield of garlic gradually increased, with a slight expansion in the
harvested land area. Meanwhile, the productivity of fresh vegetables, nes, and of dried onions
decreased; and their ratios of the yield decreased or stagnated. In the vegetable products category,
wheat, coconuts, and areca nuts outstripped the other product groups in their ratios of the yield, and
they had relatively high productivity, as well. Similarly, pork and hen eggs had high feed productivity
and ratios of the yield compared with those of the other livestock products. Although the harvested
land areas or the number of producing animals for the products mentioned above were small (except
for fresh vegetables, nes), and were not necessarily increasing, the potential of these products as
exports to other ASEAN countries could be high if they became competitive with the same products
from those other countries by means of physical productivity.

As shown in the second column from the right in Table 9.11, which lists examples of products imported
by other ASEAN countries from Myanmar during 2014–2016 in greater quantities than expected based
on their prices, only dried beans had non-price competitiveness or were differentiated from the same
item produced by other countries. Agri-food products in Myanmar should be actively improved for
the sake of developing the FVC in that country.

182
 Table 9.11. Levels of Productivity and Resource Allocation for Individual Items
Land or feed Ratio of Area or producing Items imported larger or smaller
productivity the yield animals Intpn. compared with the price (p<0.2)
(MK m illio n /h a o r Chg Index Chg ( 1,000 ha or Chg
No. IC2 FCL name MK m illio n /1 0 0 P U) ( %) ( Y i /Y i ' ) ( %) m i l l i on PU ) ( %)
A B Imported larger in Imported smaller in
1 11 Rice, paddy 1.3 3 0.9 -2 7,030 -2 iii i
2 Maize 1.1 3 0.9 -1 440 4 iii i
3 Wheat 0.8 -3 1.8 -2 98 0 iii i
4 Millet 0.3 5 0.7 -3 228 1 iv iv
5 Cereals, nes 0.2 8 0.3 6 18 -7 iv iv
6 Sorghum — — 0.5 0 230 1 — —
7 12 Sugar cane 2.0 20 0.9 0 163 1 i ii
8 Groundnuts, with shell 1.6 0 0.9 4 926 2 i ii
9 Coconuts 1.5 -2 2.0 3 47 0 i i
10 Sesame seed 0.7 2 0.7 -2 1,505 1 iv ii
11 Sunflower seed 0.7 -4 1.0 -7 505 -5 iii iii
12 Soybeans 0.6 -6 0.7 -5 154 -1 iv iv
13 Seed cotton 0.1 11 3.0 26 230 -3 iii iii
14 Castor oil seed — — 1.2 1 15 0 — —
15 13 Garlic 8.6 4 1.3 1 29 1 i i
16 Vegetables, fresh nes 7.6 -4 1.2 -2 260 2 i i
17 Onions, dry 6.6 -2 2.1 0 75 2 i i
18 Potatoes 6.5 1 0.9 -1 37 0 i i
19 Cassava 4.9 6 0.6 -3 44 10 ii ii
20 Sweet potatoes 1.4 1 0.8 -3 7 -1 ii iv
21 Beans, dry 1.1 3 1.5 3 2,896 2 iii iii Beans, dry IDN
22 Peas, dry 0.8 -1 0.2 — 56 2 iv iv
23 Pigeon peas 0.6 -5 0.5 -7 632 1 iv iv
24 Cow peas, dry 0.5 -7 0.3 -5 137 -4 iv iv
25 14 Areca nuts 10.0 0 1.9 4 56 2 i i
26 Plantains and others 2.7 3 1.1 2 75 2 i i
27 Fruit, fresh nes 1.4 0 0.4 2 360 2 ii iv
28 Mangoes, mangosteens, guavas — — 0.8 -2 0 3 — —
29 Fruit, tropical fresh nes — — 0.8 1 1 -1 — —
30 Cashew nuts, with shell — — 0.5 1 2 10 — —
31 15 Coffee, green 1.8 4 0.6 0 12 4 ii i
32 Tea 1.4 3 0.7 -1 82 1 ii i
33 Chillies and peppers, dry 0.4 4 0.5 -1 112 -2 iv iv
34 Spices, nes — — 0.1 -2 3 1 — —
35 21 Meat, pig 10.2 — 2.3 — 6 6 i i
36 Meat, turkey 1.3 — 0.7 — 0 6 ii ii
37 Meat, cattle 1.0 — 1.2 — 25 9 i i
38 Meat, goose and guinea fowl 0.9 — 0.9 — 1 9 i i
39 Meat, goat 0.8 — 1.6 — 8 11 i i
40 Meat, buffalo 0.6 — 0.7 — 6 8 iv iv
41 Meat, sheep 0.5 — 1.1 — 2 12 iii iii
42 Meat, duck 0.5 — 0.7 — 27 9 iv iv
43 Meat, chicken 0.5 — 0.8 — 309 10 iii iv
44 22 Milk, whole fresh cow 1.1 — 0.4 — 41 7 ii ii
45 Milk, whole fresh buffalo 0.6 — 0.5 — 9 -1 iv i
46 Milk, whole fresh sheep 0.3 — 0.7 — 0 10 iv iii
47 Milk, whole fresh goat 0.2 — 0.4 — 2 11 iv iv
48 23 Eggs, hen, in shell 1.9 — 1.4 — 25 7 i i
49 Eggs, other bird, in shell 1.3 — 1.0 — 3 7 i iv
MK = kyats (Myanmar currency).
FCL = FAOSTAT Commodity List, ha = hectare, IC2 = item category level 2, IDN = Indonesia, Intpn. = interpretation,
nes = not elsewhere specified, p = p-value, PU = unit of pig feed requirements, Yi = yield in Myanmar, Yi’ =
average yield in other ASEAN countries.
Notes: ‘Area’ refers to the total harvested area, and ‘producing animals’ refers to the number of producing
animals. Land/feed productivity, ratio of the yield, and area harvested/producing animals represent the average
values for 2011–2015. ‘Chg’ refers to the average annual rates of change during 2006–2015 (%). The data on
land productivity was deflated to constant 2015 kyat prices. The figures are estimates based on all the FAOSTAT
data provided under the ‘Production’ rubric. In the ‘Intpn’ column, the codes are as follows: i = both productivity
and ratio of the yield are high; ii = productivity is high, but the ratio of the yield is low; iii = productivity is low,
but the ratio of the yield is high; and iv = both productivity and ratio of the yield are low. The codes under ‘A’
reflect the median of the broader product categories in IC1 (item category level 1), and those under ‘B’ reflect
the median of the specific products in IC2 included here. Regarding the items imported in larger or smaller
quantities compared with their prices (p<0.2), the names of the FCL items (classified according to the Broad
Economic Categories) listed in the table are those with the smallest p-value < 0.2 estimated based on data during
2014–2016. Data category: FCL.
Source: Appendix 3.7.

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Table 9.12 shows a positive correlation between the land productivity and ratios of the yield of cereals
(11) and vegetables (13) during 2011–2015. In other words, the profitability per unit area of FCL items
tended to be high when they had a comparative advantage in terms of physical productivity within
the ASEAN region. This did not apply, however, for products in the oil and sugar crops (12) group.
Weak or non-existent correlations are observed between land/feed productivity or ratios of the yield
and the extent of harvested areas or number of producing animals for all IC2 product groups. Such
results show that most of the land and producing animals in Myanmar were simply not allocated to
products characterised by high productivity or competitiveness.

Table 9.12. Correlation Matrix of Comparative Advantage, Productivity, and Resource Allocation,
2011–2015
Land or feed productivity Ratio of the yield
sugar crops

sugar crops
13 Vegetables

13 Vegetables
Stimulants

Stimulants
and spices

and spices
Fruits and

Fruits and
11 Cereals

11 Cereals
Oil and

Oil and
21 Meat

21 Meat
nuts

nuts
IC2

12

14

15

12

14

15
Ratio of the yield 0.70 -0.18 0.71 — — 0.52 — — — — — —
Area or producing animals 0.90 0.04 -0.39 — — -0.60 0.40 -0.14 0.05 — — -0.12
Obs. 5 7 10 3 3 9 5 7 10 3 3 9
IC2 = item category level 2.
Notes: ‘Area’ refers to the total harvested area, and ‘producing animals’ refers to the number of producing
animals. This table uses Spearman's rank correlation coefficient of average values during 2011–2015. The
values were estimated based on the data for items on the FAOSTAT Commodities List (FCL) relating to
land/feed productivity, the ratio of the yield, and the number of producing animals and the land area they
used. FCL items with correlation coefficients less than 4 were omitted. ‘Obs.’ refers to the number of FCL
items. Data category: FCL.
Source: Author’s calculations, see Appendix 3.7.

5. Summary
Social and Economic Conditions
Although Myanmar’s population is middling in size compared with the populations of the other
ASEAN states, the country’s strong prospect of population and economic growth suggests a large
potential as a consumption market of agri-food products.
VA of the wholesale and retail trade sectors has been a major component of Myanmar’s GDP; for
instance, their total VA accounted for about 14% of GDP in 2015. While the proportion of GDP
due to the VA of the food and beverage industry shrank, that due to the VA of most FVC-related
industries expanded, especially in the case of fishing and agriculture.
Interindustry and intra-industry transactions in Myanmar had special characteristics compared
with those in the other countries covered in this report. Most products of the agriculture, fishing,
and food-and-beverage industries were destined for intra-industry transactions. The FVC in
Myanmar expanded rapidly with regard to intra-industry transactions, while inter-industry
transactions increased only gently.

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Linkages amongst FVC-related Industries
The increase in final demand in downstream sectors of the FVC, particularly the food and
beverage industries, had an impact on the VA of upstream sectors. This result suggests that
interventions into the food and beverage industries do contribute to the development of
agriculture.
The effects of downstream industries on the VA of fishing was notable, as the size of the fishing
market is very limited. It is also suggested that the services provided by the wholesale/retail trade
sectors are necessary, but alone not sufficient, to automatically drive the development of the
FVC-related industries.
Production growth can accompany a rise in per capita employee compensation in many FVC-
related industries, particularly agriculture.
The hotel and restaurant industries, which had remarkably high per capita compensation and a
sharp increase in the number employees, seem to have been one of the more attractive sectors
in terms of labour absorption, although the number of employees was actually very limited.

Supply–Demand Balance of Agri-food Products

Most agri-food products, particularly cereals, oil and sugar crops, and vegetables, were mainly
produced and consumed in the domestic market. However, a comparatively large quantity of fat
and oils was imported, followed by cereals and milk. Exports of vegetables consisted mainly of
beans, and the quantity was remarkably large. The second- and third-largest export goods were
cereals and marine fishes, respectively. Even though cereals are mainly produced/consumed at
home, the little that’s produced/consumed in foreign markets are in large enough volumes to
rank high compared with other exports and imports. The supply–demand structure in Myanmar
had some unique features, such as a high self-sufficiency in milk and a high dependency on
imports for alcoholic beverages, unlike the other ASEAN countries covered in this report.
The export prices of aquatic products—such as raw and processed molluscs; raw aquatic animals,
nei; and raw crustaceans—were remarkably high. A noticeable amount of raw marine fishes were
also exported at high prices. And the export values of raw crustaceans were relatively high. We
can conclude that raw crustaceans and marine fishes exported in large volumes had high enough
values to induce active trade.

The Competitiveness of Each Product in the ASEAN Region

Myanmar’s vegetable products in the low-price range—especially vegetables such as dried beans;
pulses, nes; and bambara beans—tended to be imported in great quantities by other ASEAN
countries in 2014–2016, considering to their prices. Among the aquatic products, crustaceans
(such as shrimps, prawns, and crabs, nei) and fishes, nei, were imported in significantly larger
quantities than had been estimated based on their import prices.
Research on the characteristics of the goods actively exported by other ASEAN countries to
Myanmar might trigger a reconsideration of production and marketing strategies for domestic
products that could compete with goods produced by other ASEAN states, for instance: soya
paste, miscellaneous aquatic products, and baby food from Malaysia; breakfast cereals from
Thailand; sugar confectionery from Viet Nam; and potatoes, nutmeg/mace/cardamons,
condensed whey, whole condensed milk, salmons/trouts/smelts, food preparations, nes, and
sesame oil from Singapore.
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In the vegetables group, land productivity and ratios of the yield were higher for garlic, fresh
vegetables, nes, and dried onions than for the other products. Within the overall vegetable
products category, wheat, coconuts, and areca nuts outstripped the other products in their ratios
of the yield; and they had relatively high land productivity. Similarly, pork and hen eggs had high
feed productivity, and their ratios of the yield were comparable with those of most other livestock
products. The potential of these products as exports to other ASEAN countries could be high if
they became competitive with the same products from those other countries by means of greater
physical productivity.

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