387

Primary submission: 28.05.2022 | Final acceptance: 5.10.2022

Analysis of the Main Drivers of GHG Emissions in

Visegrad Countries: Kaya Identity Approach
Dalia Streimikiene

ABSTRACT There are two main ways to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions: energy efficiency improvement and in-
crease usage of renewable energy sources. Taking these two main ways into account, it is possible to analyze
the main drivers of GHG emissions in the country and to make forecast of future GHG emissions based on
historical trends. The Visegrad group (V4) countries, including Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czech Republic
were selected to provide comparative assessment of their GHG emission drivers and to evaluate effects of
climate change mitigation policies in energy sector on GHG emission trends. The Kaya identity approach was
applied allowing to perform simple multiplication. Kaya identity equation substitutes the factors with well-
established and measurable quantities, which leave little space for ambiguity. The multiplying population size
by GDP per capita, energy intensity, and carbon intensity of energy allows to get total GHG emissions in the
country and define its energy efficiency or use of renewables are the main drivers of GHG emissions, including
the effect of economic growth expressed by GDP per capita.

KEY WORDS: Kaya identity, greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy, energy efficiency policies, Visegrad
Countries.
JEL Classification: H30, P18, Q20, Q30.

Mykolas Romeris University, Faculty of Public Governance and Business, Vilnius, Lithuania

1. Introduction that, unlike in the previous 2020 Package, the new

All EU member states should follow strict cli- EU targets are not translated into national binding
mate change mitigation commitments set by the targets through EU legislation. The proposals, set
EU. The EU set a target to achieve carbon neutrality out in the Energy Union Package, aim to provide a
by 2050 and member states should pre-prepare their coherent approach to climate change, energy secu-
national energy and climate plans (NECP) to deal rity and competitiveness, and to achieve the goals
with climate change reduction targets set for 2030 agreed under the 2030 Framework.
and 2050, as 2020 targets have been already to be The main targets of EU 2030 Framework are:
achieved. • To achieve at least 55% cuts in greenhouse gas
The NECPs are the framework for Member States (GHG) emissions from 1990 levels in 2030;
to outline their climate and energy goals, policies, • To achieve at least 32% share for renewable en-
and measures from 2021 to 2030. The development ergy in 2030 and
of these Plans is a legal requirement under the Gov- • To achieve at least 32.5% improvement in en-
ernance Regulation adopted in December 2018. ergy efficiency.
The most difficult issue of EU 2030 Framework is There are plenty of papers analyzing climate
change mitigation policies in energy sector and
Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to:
Dalia Streimikiene, Mykolas Romeris University, Faculty of Public
Governance and Business, Vilnius, Lithuania. E-mail: [email protected]

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388 Vol.16 Issue 4 2022 387-396 Dalia Streimikiene

their impacts in EU MS in terms of decoupling of improvement in all supply and demand sectors and
energy consumption from GHG emissions or dis- increase usage of carbon free energy supply sources,
cussing Kuznets curve application results for select- mainly renewables. Carbon capture and storage are
ed countries (Ramanathan, 2006; Allard et al., 2018; also important measures, however more economi-
Wang et al., 2019; Apeaning, 2020; Rus et al., 2020; cally efficient and effective are the increase in energy
Hafner, Paoplo, 2020; Su et al., 2020; Hwank et al., savings and usage of renewables. Therefore targets
2020; Dolge et al., 2021; Istudor et al., 2021; Mastini for these areas were put aside GHG emission reduc-
et al., 2021), however the main drivers of this de- tion goals (Kulovesi & Oberthur, 2020).
coupling of GHG emissions from economic growth With regards of studies dealing with decou-
are not analysed and compared by applying simple pling of GHG emissions from energy consumption,
and easy to track and understand frameworks like the majority of studies are built on environmental
Kaya identity. There are several studies that applied Kuznets curve (EKC) concept. However, the empiri-
Kaya identity for analysis of climate change mitiga- cal evidence of the EKC is mixed (Allard, 2018; Al-
tion (Streimikiene & Balezentis, 2016; Liobikiene et Mulali, Ozturk, 2016). Methodological approaches
al., 2016) however most of these studies were dem- are varied. Some scholars have investigated the
onstrating advanced decomposition analysis tools correlation between income and environmental
without analysis of results and their implications outcomes of a country or set of countries over time
(Zhan et al., 2009; Karmelos et al., 2016; Lima et al., however arrived on different conclusions with re-
2016; Tavakoli, 2018; Mahony, 2018; Ortega-Ruiz et gards of the shape of EKC (Jebli et al., 2016; Bilgili et
al., 2020; Gonzales-Torres et al., 2021). There are al., 2016; Farhani et al., 2014).
two main ways to achieve GHG emission reduction There were studies trying to apply Shapley tech-
in energy sector - energy efficiency improvement nique to the Kaya Identity to test the EKC hypoth-
and decarbonization of energy supply. Therefore, esis. The study by Garrett-Peltier (2018) grouped
these issues need to be addressed in the beginning countries based on the income level, and assessed
of macro level to identify the main contributors for the importance of income on GHG emissions for
GHG emission reduction. countries at various stages of development. The
This paper aims to overcome this gap. In this study found global EKC as for lower income coun-
paper, the Kaya identity approach was applied to tries, rising income is the most important determi-
analyze historical drivers of GHG emissions in 4 se- nant of emissions, but for higher income countries
lected countries and to discuss the similarities and the economic growth is offset by improvements in
differences between countries having similar eco- energy efficiency. Based on these assumptions the
nomic development level and EU accession experi- inverted-U-shaped EKC was justified.
ence including geopolitical situation and climate. However, all studies dealing with the climate
allows to generate pertinent policy implications and change mitigation policies and their effects on GHG
recommendations for decision makers. emission reduction do not distinguish the impor-
tance of interlinked measures of climate change
2. Literature Review mitigation in energy sector: energy efficiency im-
Scholars agree that the main factors having im- provement and carbon intensity of primary energy
pact on anthropogenic GHG emissions are: energy reduction based on case study approach. The case
intensity of economy, reduction carbon intensity of study based on qualitative and quantitative data can
energy consumption, and economic growth which shed lighter on the main drivers of GHG emissions
is also linked to population increase (Brody, Tutak, in selected countries from the same region. It also
2021; allows to learn from results of one country and ap-
To implement the EU 2030 Climate and En- ply good practice case studies to another country in
ergy Policy Framework, countries have decided to the region.
implement various policies and measures targeting In next section of the paper Kaya identity indi-
all three aims of this framework: energy efficiency cators were applied and analysed in Visegrad coun-

CONTEMPORARY ECONOMICS DOI: 10.5709/ce.1897-9254.489

Analysis of the Main Drivers of GHG Emissions in Visegrad Countries: Kaya Identity Approach 389

tries: Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czech Repub- ergy Intensity” as it measures energy efficiency, or
lic. These countries were selected for case study as provides the amount of economic output that can be
neighbouring countries which have entered EU in generated by one standardized unit of energy used.
the same year and have similar economic, social, The higher energy efficiency the lower are associated
and geographical conditions. GHG emissions. The carbon intensity of energy sup-
ply is the most important diver of energy related GHG
3. Data and Methods emissions in the country as it shows the low carbon
The Kaya identity (Kaya, 1990) is a decomposition energy transition trends and the increasing share of
method that shows the level of energy related CO2 renewables is the major reason of decrease of carbon
emissions due to the following factors: (a) carbon intensity of energy consumption.
intensity (CO2 emissions per unit of total primary Table 1 provides and describes the main indicators
energy supply (TPES), (b) energy intensity (TPES per of Kaya identity.
unit of GDP), (c) gross domestic product per capita The Kay identity formula can be presented in the
(GDP/cap) and (d) population. following form:
Population growth and economic growth are the CO2 Emissions = Population X (GDP/Population) X
main factors which influence GHG emission trends. (Energy/GDP) X (CO2 /Energy)
The GDP per capita is the best description of econom- In the next section of paper, the main trends of
ic growth (Tavakoli, 2018). Kaya identity indicators will be analyzed and dis-
The next important GHG emission driver is “En- cussed among V4 group countries.

Table 1
Kaya Indicators Framework

Main indicators Description and measurement units Abbreviation

Population growth
Population millions Population
Economic growth
GDP per capita Gross domestic product per capita, thou GDP/Population
EUR/inhabitant at PPP
Energy efficiency
Primary energy intensity of GDP Primary energy intensity is the primary Energy/GDP
energy consumption per unit of GDP,
toe/Million EUR 2010 prices
Renewable energy sources
Carbon intensity of energy supply Carbon intensity (CO2 emissions per CO2/Energy
unit of total primary energy supply
(TPES), kgCO2eq/toe
GHG emissions
GHG emissions The total energy related greenhouse gas CO2 emissions
emissions (without LULUCF, with inter-
national aviation) as declared by coun-
tries to UNFCCC, MtCO2 eq

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390 Vol.16 Issue 4 2022 387-396 Dalia Streimikiene

4. Discussion of Results notice that the highest achievement in economic

The indicators of Kaya identity framework pro- growth was achieved by Poland during investigated
vided in Table 1 were collected for 4 Visegrad coun- period and the lowest economic growth per capita
tries (Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Po- was recorded in Czech Republic. The GDP per capita
land) are analyzed bellow. increased by almost 3 times in Poland (186%) and
In Figures 1-5 the trends of the main indicators by at the same time it has increased just by 65% in
constituent to Kaya identity are given in V-4 coun- Czechia and by 67% in Hungary and almost by 118%
tries during 30 years period. in Slovakia.
As Figure 1 indicates, the Poland is dominating Figure 3 showed that energy intensity in V-4
with the high size of population among V-4 coun- countries was declining during all investigated pe-
tries however the trend of population decline can be riod however energy intensity in Czechia is signifi-
noticed in Poland. Slovakia is the country having the cantly lower than in other V-4 countries. In Czechia
lowest number of inhabitants however the number energy intensity has declined by 56% and in Hun-
of populations was not declining during 1990–2020- gary by 41%. The highest declined in energy in-
year period. During investigated period, the number tensity during investigated period was achieved by
of populations has declined by 6% just in Hungary, Poland and Slovakia as energy intensity of economy
however it increased by 3% in Slovakia and Czechia dropped by 65% during 20-year period. Now all
and remain stable in Poland during the same period. V-4 countries have quite similar energy intensity of
As one may notice from Figure 2, Czechia dis- economy though GDP per capita levels are different.
tinguishes from other V-4 countries with the high- As one can see in Figure 4, Poland has the high-
est GDP per capita, following Slovakia. Hungary est carbon intensity of primary energy supply among
and Poland have GDP per capita more than 20% V-4 countries. Slovakia and Hungary are countries
lower than in Czech Republic. Comparing economic having the lowest carbon intensity of energy supply
growth results achieved during 1990-2020 one can though during investigated period countries showed

Figure 1
Development of Population Growth in V-4 Countries During 1990-2020 Period

CONTEMPORARY ECONOMICS DOI: 10.5709/ce.1897-9254.489

Analysis of the Main Drivers of GHG Emissions in Visegrad Countries: Kaya Identity Approach 391

Figure 2
Development of GDP per Capita Growth in V-4 Countries During 1990-2020 Period

Figure 3
Development of Primary Energy Intensity in V-4 Countries During 1990-2020 Period

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392 Vol.16 Issue 4 2022 387-396 Dalia Streimikiene

significant reduction of carbon intensity of primary related GHG emission reduction during investigated
energy supply. Slovakia has achieved 35% reduction period. Poland has achieved just 21% of GHG emis-
of carbon intensity of energy supply following by sion reducing during 1990-2020 period and in Hun-
Czechia which has achieved 30% reduction of the gary by 35%.
same indicator. However, Poland experiences a very In Table 2 the V-4 the main drivers of GHG emis-
modest reduction of carbon intensity of final energy sion reduction are compared among V-4 countries
– just 19% during 30 years period. Hungary reduced during 1990-2020 period.
carbon intensity of primary energy supply by 26%. Table 2 provides results of Kaya identity indicators
Such differences among V-4 countries can be based on the newest available data form EUROSTAT
explained by the differences in fast deployment of (European Union, 2022).
renewables. Slovakia has achieved significant car- Information available in Table 2 shows that Czechia
bon intensity of energy decrease due to the sharp has achieved highest GHG emission reduction dur-
increase of the share of renewables in final energy ing 30 years due to energy intensity decrease. GDP
consumption in 2020. per capita growth had positive impact on the growth
As one can see from Figure 5, Poland has the GHG emissions however, energy intensity reduction
highest GHG emissions among V-4 countries and by 65% overweighted impact of economic growth.
this is linked with the size of country and number The input from carbon intensity decrease of primary
of populations. Analysis of GHG emission trends energy consumption has lower impact on GHG emis-
shows that Czechia has achieved the highest energy sion reduction in comparison with energy intensity
related GHG emission reduction during 1990-2020. decrease, but overall, both policies for energy efficien-
GHG emissions have declined by 50% in Czechia cy improvement and promotion of carbon free energy
during 30 years period. Slovakia is the next best suppliers resulted in positive decline of energy related
performing country having achieved 47% of energy GHG emissions by 47% during investigated period.

Figure 4
Development of Carbon Intensity of Energy in V-4 Countries During 1990-2020 Period

CONTEMPORARY ECONOMICS DOI: 10.5709/ce.1897-9254.489

Analysis of the Main Drivers of GHG Emissions in Visegrad Countries: Kaya Identity Approach 393

Figure 5
Development of GHG Emissions in V-4 During 1990-2020 Period

Table 2
Kaya Identity Indicators in 1990 and 2020 and Changes
Hungary
Main indicators Czechia Poland Slovakia
1990 2020 Change, 1990 2020 Change 1990 2020 Change 1990 2020 Change
%
Population, thou- 10362 10694 3 10375 9770 -6 38038 37958 -0.3 5288 5498 3
sand
GDP/Population, 10.4 17.1 65 7.8 13.0 67 4.6 13.2 186 7.2 15.6 118
thou EUR/inhab-
itant PPP PPP
Energy/GDP, toe/ 303.0 133.7 -56 3339.6 188.8 -41 536 193 -65 518.6 177.7 -65
Million EUR 2010
prices
CO2/Energy, kg- 3991 2827 -30 3270 2414 -26 4611 3665 -19 3455 2256 -35
CO2eq/toe
CO2 emissions, 166.8 92.8 -47 73.8 47.6 -35 476.5 377.0 -21 73.5 31.1 -50
MtCO2 eq
Source: created by authors based on (European Union, 2022)

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394 Vol.16 Issue 4 2022 387-396 Dalia Streimikiene

As one can see in information provided in Table mented climate change mitigation policies in anal-
2, Hungary has achieved 35% of energy related GHG ysed countries were saucerful.
emission during 30 years mainly due to energy in- The input from carbon intensity decrease of pri-
tensity decrease. The impact from carbon intensity mary energy consumption has lower impact on
decrease to GHG emission reduction was signifi- GHG emission reduction in comparison with energy
cantly lower. Economic growth of the country also intensity decrease, but overall, both policies for ener-
has contributed significantly to the GHG emission gy efficiency improvement and promotion of carbon
growth which was mitigated by policies to promote free energy suppliers resulted in positive decline of
energy efficiency and use of renewable energy sourc- GHG emission in Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, and
es. Poland
Poland has achieved the modest reduction of en- Czechia has achieved the highest GHG emission
ergy related GHG emissions due to very high eco- reduction during 30 years due to energy intensity
nomic growth during 30 years as GHG per capita decrease. GDP per capita growth had positive im-
almost tripled in the country. Energy intensity de- pact on the growth GHG emissions however, energy
crease was the main driver of GHG emission reduc- intensity reduction by 65% overweighted impact of
tion in the country as the input of carbon intensity of economic growth. energy related GHG emissions by
primary energy supply was less significant in Poland. 47% during investigated period.
Slovakia has achieved 50% of energy related GHG Hungary has achieved 35% of energy related
emission reduction during investigated period due GHG emission during 30 years mainly due to en-
to sharp energy intensity decrease (by 65%) and sig- ergy intensity decrease. The impact from carbon
nificant carbon intensity of primary energy decrease intensity decrease to GHG emission reduction was
(-35%). The economic growth of 118% since 1990 significantly lower.
also provided input on GHG emission growth how- Poland has achieved a modest reduction of energy
ever strict and effective measures of climate change related GHG emissions due to very high economic
mitigation in energy sector have overweighted nega- growth during 30 years as GHG per capita almost
tive impact of economic growth on GHG emissions. tripled in the country. Energy intensity decrease was
In all V-4 countries investigated the clear decou- the main driver of GHG emission reduction in the
pling of GDP per capita growth from GHG emission country as the input of carbon intensity of primary
growth can be noticed if climate change mitigation energy supply was less significant in Poland.
policies implemented in selected group of countries Slovakia has achieved 50% of energy related GHG
were successful. emission reduction during the investigated period
The example of Slovakia can be inspiring as coun- due to sharp energy intensity decrease (by 65%) and
try achieved the best results in overall GHG emission significant carbon intensity of primary energy de-
reduction and with fast economic growth (118%) crease (-35%). The economic growth of 118% since
was able to reduce its GHG emissions by 50%. In ad- 1990 also provided input on GHG emission growth
dition, in Slovakia both policies to promote energy however strict and effective measures of climate
efficiency and renewable energy sources contributed change mitigation in energy sector have overweight-
significantly to GHG emission reduction in contract ed negative impact of economic growth on GHG
to the other V-4 countries where energy efficiency emissions.
improvement was the key factor of GHG emission The example of Slovakia can be inspiring as coun-
reduction. try achieved the best results in overall GHG emission
reduction and with fast economic growth (118%)
5. Conclusions and Policy Implications was able to reduce its GHG emissions by 50%. In ad-
The results of conducted analysis provided all dition, in Slovakia both policies to promote energy
Visegrad countries achieved the decoupling of GDP efficiency and renewable energy sources contributed
per capita growth from GHG emission growth dur- significantly to GHG emission reduction in contract
ing 30 years period since 1990c Therefore, the imple- to the other V-4 countries where energy efficiency

CONTEMPORARY ECONOMICS DOI: 10.5709/ce.1897-9254.489

Analysis of the Main Drivers of GHG Emissions in Visegrad Countries: Kaya Identity Approach 395

Al-Mulali, U., & Ozturk, I. (2016). The investigation

improvement was the key factor of GHG emission
of environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in the
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jclepro.2020.125706.
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Ben Jebli, M., Ben Youssef, S., & Ozturk, I. (2016).
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Testing environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis:
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The role of renewable and non-renewable energy
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Speaking about the limitation of our research, growth in contrast to GHG emission reduction
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set]. https://ec.europa.eu/info/news/eu-energy-
and compare policies and measures to promote en-
datasheets-latest-data-now-available-2020-
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feb-24_en
advanced and robust methods of decomposition
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applied in the future, to determine exact input of sustainability: A panel data analysis. Energy
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CONTEMPORARY ECONOMICS DOI: 10.5709/ce.1897-9254.489