Chapter 1: Probability
• Sample Space.
• Events.
• Counting Techniques.
• Probability of an Event.
• Additive Rules.
• Conditional Probability.
• Independence, and the Product Rule.
• Bayes’ Rule.
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Sample Space (1/9)
Random (Statistical) Experiment:
• An experiment <with known outcomes> whose outcome
cannot be predicted with certainty, before the experiment
is run.
The roll of a dice
The toss of (flipping) a coin
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Sample Space (2/9)
Sample Space (𝑺):
• Set of ALL possible outcomes of a random experiment.
• A sample space is discrete if it consists of a finite or
countable infinite set of outcomes.
• A sample space is continuous if it contains an interval
(either finite or infinite) of real numbers.
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Sample Space (3/9)
Sample Space (𝑺): Discrete
• Set of ALL possible outcomes of a random experiment.
𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Each outcome in a sample space is
The roll of a dice called an element or a member of the
sample space, or simply a sample point.
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Sample Space (4/9)
Sample Space (𝑺):
• Set of ALL possible outcomes of a random experiment.
𝑆 = {𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑, 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙}
𝑆 = {𝐻, 𝑇}
Flipping a coin
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Sample Space (5/9)
Example1:
Find the sample space for the random experiments
(flipping) a coin of two times?
Answer:
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}
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Sample Space (6/9)
Tree Diagrams:
Sample spaces can also be described graphically with tree
diagrams.
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}
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Sample Space (7/9)
Example2:
An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping
it a second time if a head occurs. If a tail occurs on the first
flip, then a die is tossed once.
Answer:
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇1, 𝑇2, 𝑇3, 𝑇4, 𝑇5, 𝑇6}
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Sample Space (8/9)
Example2:
𝑆=
{𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇1, 𝑇2,
𝑇3, 𝑇4, 𝑇5, 𝑇6}
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Sample Space (9/9)
Example3: Continuous
Consider an experiment that selects a cell phone camera
and records the recycle time of a flash (the time taken to
ready the camera for another flash).
𝑺 = 𝑅 + = 𝑥 𝑥 > 0}
If it is known that all recycle times are between 1.5 and 5
seconds, the sample space can be
𝑺 = 𝑥 1.5 < 𝑥 < 5}
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Events (2/19)
Event (𝑬):
• A result of none , one , or more outcomes in the sample
space. An event is a subset of the sample space of a
random experiment.
𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
𝐸 = {2,4,6} Even Numbers
The roll of a dice
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Events (4/19)
Example1:
A dice is rolled twice. What is the Event that the sum of the
faces is greater than 7, given that the first outcome was a 4?
Answer:
𝑆 = {11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26,
31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 𝟒𝟏, 𝟒𝟐, 𝟒𝟑, 𝟒𝟒, 𝟒𝟓, 𝟒𝟔,
51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66}
𝐸 = {44, 45, 46}
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Events (5/19)
We can also be interested in describing new events from
combinations of existing events. Because events are
subsets, we can use basic set operations such as unions,
intersections, and complements to form other events of
interest. Some of the basic set operations are summarized
here in terms of events:
1. The union of two events is the event that consists of all
outcomes that are contained in either of the two events.
We denote the union as 𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 .
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Events (6/19)
We can also be interested in describing new events from
combinations of existing events. Because events are
subsets, we can use basic set operations such as unions,
intersections, and complements to form other events of
interest. Some of the basic set operations are summarized
here in terms of events:
2. The intersection of two events is the event that consists
of all outcomes that are contained in both of the two
events. We denote the intersection as 𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 .
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Events (7/19)
We can also be interested in describing new events from
combinations of existing events. Because events are
subsets, we can use basic set operations such as unions,
intersections, and complements to form other events of
interest. Some of the basic set operations are summarized
here in terms of events:
3. The complement of an event in a sample space is the set
of outcomes in the sample space that are not in the
event. We denote the complement of the event 𝐸 as 𝐸′.
The notation 𝐸 𝐶 is also used in other literature to
denote the complement.
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Events (9/19)
Example2:
In the tossing of a die, we might let 𝐴 be the event that an
even number occurs and 𝐵 the event that a number greater
than 3 shows.
Then the subsets 𝐴 = {2, 4, 6} and 𝐵 = {4, 5, 6} are subsets
of the same sample space 𝑆 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
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Events (10/19)
Example2:
Then the subsets 𝐴 = {2, 4, 6} and 𝐵 = {4, 5, 6} are subsets
of the same sample space 𝑆 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 4, 6
𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 2, 4, 5, 6
𝐴′ = 1, 3, 5
𝐵′ = 1, 2, 3
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Events (11/19)
Mutually Exclusive, or Disjoint:
Two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are mutually exclusive, or disjoint, if 𝐴
∩ 𝐵 = ∅, that is, if 𝐴 and 𝐵 have no elements in common.
𝐴 = 2, 4, 6 and 𝐵 = 1, 3, 5
𝐴∩𝐵 = =∅
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Events (12/19)
Venn Diagrams:
Diagrams are often used to portray relationships between
sets, and these diagrams are also used to describe
relationships between events. We can use Venn diagrams to
represent a sample space and events in a sample space.
𝑆 𝐸
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Events (13/19)
Example1:
𝑆 = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
𝐴 = 1, 2, 4, 7
𝐵 = 1, 2, 3, 6
𝐶 = 1, 3, 4, 5
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Events (14/19)
Example2:
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Events (15/19)
Example3:
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Events (16/19)
Example4:
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Events (17/19)
Example5:
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Events (18/19)
Example6:
𝑆 = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
𝐴 = 1, 2, 4, 5, 7
𝐵 = 1, 2 1
4
𝐶 = 4, 6
2
6
5 7
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Events (19/19)
Several Results:
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