Lecture (2) (12-11-2023) Update
Lecture (2) (12-11-2023) Update
Lecture (2) (12-11-2023) Update
Lecture (2)
Methods used to Evaluate Alternatives Financially
3- Future Worth Method:
It is one of the methods used to determine the most financially attractive
alternative between a number of alternatives. Through this method, the
future worth FW of each alternative is calculated. Then, alternatives to
be evaluated based on the calculated FW.
FW equals the equivalent value of all cash receipts/disbursements at the
alternative useful life (study period). If the calculated FW has a positive
sign, this will mean that the alternative produces a return greater than
the MARR. If the calculated FW equals zero this will mean that, the
alternative produces a return equal to the required MARR. If the
calculated FW has a negative sign, this will mean that the alternative
produces a return less than the MARR and it must be rejected.
Example 1:
A small contractor requires to purchase a scrapper with an initial cost of
120,000$. The scrapper has a useful life of five years with an expected
salvage value of 12,000$ at the end of the fifth year. The scrapper can
be billed out at 95$/hour. Operation costs 30$/hour in addition to
25$/hour for the operator. Considering 1,200 billable hours / year; you
are requested to calculate the FW of this scrapper purchase using MARR
of 20%.
Determine if the company should purchase this scrapper or not?
Solution:
Annual revenue = (95 – 30 – 25) *1,200 = 48,000$
(1)
CB 719: Construction Economics & Feasibility Study 2023
FW = (48,000+12,000) + (-
120,000*(1+0.2)5+48,000*(1+0.2)4+48,000*(1+0.2)3+48,000*(1+
0.2)2+48,000*(1+0.2) = 70,599$.
The calculated FW has a positive sign then, the purchase of this scrapper
generates a return greater than the required MARR. The company may
invest in purchasing this scrapper.
Example 2:
A government office is installing a new automatic telephone system at a
cost of 120,000 EGP. There is an expectation that the system will help to
reduce the number of staff answering phones annually to be 40,000 EGP
in the first year, with 5,000 EGP saving less in each sub-sequent year
until the equipment is retired after six years. The expected salvage value
will be 10,000 EGP at the end of the six year. Considering MARR of
10% use the FW method to decide if this investment will be worthwhile
or not?
Solution:
(2)
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(3)
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(4)
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The first deposit will be made at end of the first year and an interest will
be due during second and third years (for two periods).
F1 = 1,000*(1+0.08)2 = 1,166$
The second deposit will be made at end of the second year and an
interest will be due during only the third year (for one period).
F2 = 1,000*(1+0.08) = 1,080$
The third deposit will be made at the end of the third year; therefore, it
earns zero interest.
F3 = 1,000$
Summing F1, F2 and F3 getting:
F = 1,166+1,080+1,000 = 3,246$
Using the next formula, results the same:
F = A* [(1+i)n-1]/i
A = Annual deposit = 1000$
(5)
CB 719: Construction Economics & Feasibility Study 2023
F = 1,000*[(1+0.08)3-1]/0.08 = 3,246$
but,
P = F/(1+i)n
then,
P = A*[(1+i)n-1]/[i*(1+i)n]
4- Annual Equivalent Method:
When calculating NPV, a transformation for the future, year-by-year
cash flows into a lump-sum value expressed in today’s dollars, euros, or
any other relevant currency has been done. Sometimes it will be more
helpful to reverse the calculation, by transforming a lump sum of
investment today into an equivalent stream of future cash flows (annual
equivalent).
The annual equivalent is calculated by converting the cash
receipts/disbursements into a uniform series of annual cash flows over
the study period (alternative useful life).
If the calculated annual equivalent has a positive sign, this will mean
that the alternative generates a return > required MARR .If it equals
zero, this will mean that the alternative generates a return equal to the
MARR. If it has a negative sign, then the alternative generates a return
< required MARR and must be rejected.
Example 4:
A concrete mix company needs to purchase a patch plant and has
narrowed its selection down to two alternatives. The first one is a new
patch plant for 65,000$ with a useful life of seven years and an expected
salvage value of 15,000$ at the end of seventh year.
(6)
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The second one is to purchase a used patch plant for 50,000$ with a
useful life of four years and an expected salvage value of 5,000$ at end
of fourth year.
If the annual profits are 17,000$/year for either plant, considering
MARR of 18%, you are required to calculate the annual worth for the
two patch plants then, decide which plant should the company purchase?
Solution:
For the new patch plant: The useful life is 7 years. The purchase price
is 65,000$. The salvage value is 15,000$.
Convert the purchase price into a uniform series of annual cash flows:
App = P*i*(1+i)n/[(1+i)n-1]
= -65,000*[0.18*(1+0.18)7]/[(1+0.18)7-1] = -17,054$
Convert the salvage value into a uniform series of annual cash flows:
Asv = F*i /[(1+i)n-1]
= 15,000*0.18/[(1+0.18)7-1] = 1,235$
The annual profit for the new patch plant is already a uniform series of
cash flows then:
Aequivalent = -17,054 + 1,235 + 17,000 = 1,181$.
(7)
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For the used patch plant: The useful life is 4 years. The purchase price
is 50,000$. The salvage value is 5,000$
(8)
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is 500,000 EGP with a useful life of five years and an expected salvage
value at end of fifth year equals 15% from its purchase price. The
expected revenue from renting this bus is 135,000 EGP/year.
For bus B, the purchase price is 750,000 EGP with a useful life of seven
years and an expected salvage value at end of the seventh year equals
150,000 EGP. The expected revenue from renting this bus is 165,000
EGP/year.
Finally, bus C purchase price is 850,000 EGP with a useful life of six
years and an expected salvage value at end of the sixth year equals
230,000 EGP. The expected revenue from renting this bus is 180,000
EGP/year. Considering MARR of 14%, determine which bus should the
school manager purchase based on their annual worth?
Solution:
For Bus A: convert the purchase price to a uniform series of annual cash
flows:
APP = P*i*(1+i)n/[(1+i)n-1]
=-500,000*0.14*(1+0.14)5/[(1+0.14)5-1] = -145,675 EGP
Convert the salvage value to a uniform series of annual cash flows:
ASV = F*i/[(1+i)n-1]
= (0.15*500,000) *0.14/ [(1+0.14)5-1] = 11,351 EGP
Then, Aequivalent for bus A:
Aequivalent= -145,675 + 11,351 + 135,000 = -676EGP
For Bus B: convert the purchase price to a uniform series of annual cash
flows:
(9)
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(10)
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(11)
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(12)
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(13)
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F = P (1+i)1
225,200 = 200,000 (1+ i) then, i(alternative 2) = 12.6%
For alternative 3:
75,000$ will be invested in investment B and the remaining 125,000$
will be located at the bank account.
The bank account interest earned = 125,000*(0.06) = 7,500$.
Total interest earned from the alternative = 13,500+7,500 = 21,000$.
The alternative FW = 200,000+21,000 = 221,000$
F = P (1+i)1
221,000 = 200,000 (1+ i) then, i(alternative 3) = 10.5%
For alternative 4:
35,000$ will be invested in investment C and the remaining 165,000$
will be located at the bank account.
(14)
CB 719: Construction Economics & Feasibility Study 2023
F = P (1+i)1
216,200 = 200,000 (1+ i) then, i(alternative 4) = 8.1%
For alternative 5:
185,000$ will be invested in investment A & B and the remaining
15,000$ will be located at the bank account.
The bank account interest earned = 15,000*(0.06) = 900$.
Total interest earned from the alternative = 19,800 + 13,500 + 900 =
34,200$.
The alternative FW = 200,000+34,200 = 234,200$
F = P (1+i)1
234,200 = 200,000 (1+ i) then, i(alternative 5) = 17.1%
(15)
CB 719: Construction Economics & Feasibility Study 2023
For alternative 6:
145,000$ will be invested in investment A & C and the remaining
55,000$ will be located at the bank account.
The bank account interest earned = 55,000*(0.06) = 3,300$.
Total interest earned from the alternative = 19,800 + 6,300+3,300 =
29,400$.
The alternative FW = 200,000+29,400 = 229,400$
F = P (1+i)1
229,400 = 200,000 (1+ i) then, i(alternative 6) = 14.7%
For alternative 7:
110,000$ will be invested in investment B & C and the remaining
90,000$ will be located at the bank account.
The bank account interest earned = 90,000*(0.06) = 5,400$.
Total interest earned from the alternative = 13,500 + 6,300+5,400 =
25,200$.
The alternative FW = 200,000+25,200 = 225,200$
(16)
CB 719: Construction Economics & Feasibility Study 2023
F = P (1+i)1
225,200 = 200,000 (1+ i) then, i(alternative 7) = 12.6%
Results are shown in the next table:
Alternative Decision of Investment Rate of return %
1 Do Nothing 6
2 A 12.6
3 B 10.5
4 C 8.1
5 A&B 17.1
6 A&C 14.7
7 B&C 12.6
Alternative 5, has the highest IRR value therefore, the company should
select this alternative for investment.
Example 8:
A construction company has to invest in one of two projects. Data
regarding the two projects is presented in the following table.
Knowing that the two projects duration is 4 months. Decide which
project is the most financially attractive for the company to select?
Expenses Payments
Project (1)
E1 = 30,000 EGP P1 = 58,350 EGP
E2 = 70,000 EGP P2 = 66,150 EGP
E3 = 80,000 EGP P3 = 75,600 EGP
(17)
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(18)
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(19)
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The payback period n = the number of years needed to recover the initial
cost.
n = purchase price/annual profit = 500,000/15,000 = 34 year
The payback period > building useful life then, purchasing the building
will not generate enough revenue to recover its initial cost and the
company should not purchase the building.
Example 10:
Three investments data are shown in the next table and a company is
deciding to may/or not invest in one of them.
Year Investment A Investment B Investment C
0 -1000 -2000 -2000
1 500 500 900
2 500 600 900
3 0 500 900
4 0 400 900
5 0 3500 900
• Using the payback period without interest method which investment
should the company choose?
• How would the decision be different when using the NPV method
considering 20% MARR?
• Which investment should be chosen if these investments are being
considered high risk using both of the above methods?
Solution:
(20)
CB 719: Construction Economics & Feasibility Study 2023
For investment B:
The payback period will be 4 years as the sum of the net cash flows to
this date = -2000+500+600 +400+500= 0.
For investment C:
The payback period will be 3 years as the sum of the net cash flows to
this date = -2000+900+900+900 = 700$.
Then, based on the payback period without interest method, investment
A is the most financially attractive investment characterized with the
shortest payback period.
For investment C:
(22)
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(23)
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Solution:
First calculate the annual profit:
Hourly profit = 105 – 40 - 35 = 30$/hour
Annual profit = 30*1600 = 48,000$/year
(24)
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(25)
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Alternatives A B C D E
Solution:
• Alternatives evaluation:
Alternative E with D:
Initial cost difference = 3,500 – 1,000 = 2,500$
Revenue difference = 785 – 117 = 668$
(26)
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(27)
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Using trial and error method: i = 7.5% < MARR then, the best current
alternative B remains to be the best current alternative and alternative A
will be ignored.
Alternative B with C:
Initial cost difference = 6,000 – 4,500 = 1,500$
Revenue difference = 761 – 410 = 351$
(28)
CB 719: Construction Economics & Feasibility Study 2023
• Alternatives evaluation:
Alternative C with A:
Initial cost difference = 1,210,000 – 950,000 = 260,000$
Annual profit difference = 250,000 – 143,000 = 107,000$
Salvage value difference = 180,000 – 165,000 = 15,000$
(29)
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(30)
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(31)
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Solution:
(32)
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Calculating IR incremental:
(33)
CB 719: Construction Economics & Feasibility Study 2023
Sheet (2)
1. A construction company needs to purchase a new back hoe and has
narrowed the selection between two pieces of equipment. The first
back hoe costs 100,000$ and has an hourly operation cost of 31$ and a
35,000$ salvage value at the end of three years. The second back hoe
costs 65,000$ and has an hourly operation cost of 36$ and no salvage
value at the end of the three years. The operator cost is 29$ per hour.
The revenue from either back hoe is 95$ per hour. Using 1200 billable
hours per year and 20% MARR, calculate the NPV for both back
hoes. Which back hoe should the company select?
2. Based on the IR incremental for problem 1, which back hoe should the
company selects?
3. Based on the FW for problem 1, which back hoe should the company
selects?
(34)