9.3 SOLVED PROBLEMS: Example 2: (MUL, April 2015) A small project consists of seven activities, details of the project are as follows: ‘Activity Time Estimates (days) a to tm Most Optimistic | likely ™| Pessimistic 1-2 2 4 6 1-3 6 7 2-3 t 4 2 2-4 2 3 4 3-5 1 3 5 4-6 1 1 1 5-6 fr 2 3 (Draw project network diagram and find critical path along with project completion time. (ii) Tabulate Variance and expected project completion time. Gii) Find the probability of project completion in 15 days.2 BOO ‘Viput’s Operations Research (BMS) (NK) Solution: Network Diagram (with T.): Paths in the network: 1-2-4-6=6 days T=2-3-5-6= 15 days] Critical path Gi) 1-3-5~6= 11 days Expected Project Completion time = 13 days Activity Expected time Variance et) = fe ac 1-2 [2s16+6 2 6 36 1-3 |3e2+9 O-37 6 36 2-3 |1si6+7 7-1 6 % 2-4 |2ei2ed @-2° 6 36 3-5 [isis 6-1 6 36 4-6 [igri a 6 36 7 Zero 5-6 [1803 oy 4 omnia 36 = 36 Project Variance = E variance of critical activitiesNetwork Anaysi iance =1,25,18, 4. «. Project Variance = 8 4 36,18. 4 S.D. =-\Project Variance = 2 SD. sia To find probability of project completion in 15 days. als Table value = 0.4222 [P (15 days) = 0.9222 = 92.22%] Example 3: (MUL, April 2014) ‘M/s Motwani Limited have taken up a special project consisting of 10 activities whose three point time estimates are listed in the table below. Activities are marked with their node numbers. ‘Activity |____ Time Estimates in Weeks Optimistic] Most | Pessimistic likely 1-2 7 2 3 1-3 1 2 3 14 fl 2 3 2-5 4 9 2 3-5 2 5 4 3-7 3 6 15 5-7 1 2 9 4-6 2 4 6 6-7 3 3 3 7-8 4 4 4 (a) Draw network diagram and find expected completion time of project. (b) Identity critical path. (©) Find the probability that the project is completed in 17 weeks. (a) What is the probability that the project will not be completed in 20 weeks? ?a PUG Viput’s Operations Research (BMS) (x) {€) If the project includes a penalty clause of Rs. 1,000 per week for any delay beyond 19 weeks. What is the probability of paying a penalty cof more than Rs, 5,000? (6 What project duration will have 95% confidence of completion? (g) If the project manager wants to complete the project with 95% confidence in 21 weeks, by how much time should he crash the average project completion time? Solution: Table 9.2. @ Activity Variance = (S. D)? 4 1-2 = %6 1-3 1-4 2-5 Ey 36 3-5 3-7 5-7 ca 36 4-6 6-7 7-8 o I[Network Analysis il) egg 37 Network Diagram: Fig 9.11 Paths: () [122=5=7=8=19 weeks] Critical path. @) 1-3-5-7-8= 15 weeks. G) 1-3-7-8=13 weeks. () 1-4-6-7-8=13 weeks. (ii) Critical path =1-2-5-7-8 [Expected (Mean) project completion time = 19 weeks, 4256 64 Variance of critical path = 3g + 35"+ 36 +0 a4 %6 9 S.D. of critical path = [Variance iii)a BOD ‘Viput's Operations Research (BMS) (NK) ©: Table value = 0.2486

5,000 « It indicates non completion in 24 weeks. «: P (Non completion in 24 weeks) = 1.0 0.9525 0.0475 475% 5 5% 195 195-05 = 0.45 wi) Confidence level 2 P= 95%. Table valueNetwork Analysis - a Table value from table = 0.4505 Corresponding z = 1.65 T-19 165 =7 2. T = (165 x3) +19 :.T = 23.95 weeks (say 24 weeks) ~. Corresponding project duration = 23.95 weeks} (ii Since the corresponding project duration for 95% confidence is 24 ‘weeks, but the project manger wants to complete in 21 weeks. Hence, required crashing = 24-21 = 3 weeks] Example & (MU,, April 2013) The data for a PERT network is given in the following table: ‘Time duration (days) e m Pp 2 4 6 6 6 6 +6 2 a 2 5 8 u “ 8 | 2 45 3 6 9 9 15 7 4 10 16 ‘0-optimisticm—_most likely p- pessimistic (a) Draw a network and estimate the expected duration of the project and corresponding variance. (b) What is the probability that the project will be completed between 45 to 54 days? (© What is the probability of completing the project within 30 days?— ¥ aw «6808 Viput’s operations Research (8MS) (Nk) Solution: (a) Network diagram: (using t.) 25 1583 = 34 26 900736 36 6 = 6 16 324736 56 10 E Paths: (1) 1.256 =2983 days 2) 1:2:3-6=15 days @) 123-46 = [Bi days] (@) 13-6=12days (5) 13-46 =48 days ©) 1-46-29 days Critical path = 1-2-3-4-6, Expected project completion time = 51 days ‘Variance of Critical Path: 16 36 900 324 1276 36*36* 36 * 36 = 36 = 35.44Network Analysis =I goe8 31 *. SD. of critical path = 35.4 SD.= 595 day (b) Probability that the project will be completed between 45 to 54 @ 101 2. PAS days) = 0.5 ~ 0.3438 = 0.1562 Gi) for 54 days: +. Table Value = 0.1915 P (64 days)=05 +0.1915 = 0.6915 P (45 to 54 days) = 0.6915 - 0.1562 = (05353) = 0.5353 « 100% = [53%] (©) Probability of project completion in 30 days: . Table Vi =. P30 days) = 0.5 ~ 0.4998 0.0002] = 0.0002 x 100% += [0.02%] which is almost equal to zero. tis practically impossible to complete the project in 30 days.xo Viput's Operations Research (0M) (x Example 5: (MUL, Oct. 2012) ‘The owner of a chain of Fast-Food restaurants has to install computer system for the accounting and inventory control. A company sent the following information about the system installation: rei een | —_Sisei ep ost st ost Description [Predecessor | oorimistc | likely | pessimistic "A Select he computer a 4 6 3 model 8 | Design Input/Output A 5 7 9 system | Design monitoring a 4 8 2 system D_—_ | Assemble computer B 15 20 B hardware | Develop the main B 10 18 26 programs F | Develop Input/Output | C 8 ° 16 routines G | Create data base Eg 4 8 2 | Install the system DF 1 2 1__| Testand tmplement cu 6 z 8 @)_ Construct a network diagram for this project. () Calculate the earliest start/finish (EST/EFT) and latest start/finish (LST/LFP for each activity. Hence find the critical path. (© Compute the expected project completion time, (€)_ What is the probability that the project will be completed within 55 days? ‘e) How many days before should the company start the project so as to complete it within the time with 99% assurance?Network Analysis 31 Solution: Network Diagram: fz 8 46] 46 Fig. 9.13 (@) Calculation for ‘t’ and ‘Variance’ Table 93 ‘Aativity eontimeb 6 x 6 B 7 G 8 a D 20 zs E 18 256/36 F 10 = c 8 64/36 4 2 - 1 7 4136 (EST, EFT, LST, LFT: Table 94 Aeivity | ESt=6 | EFP=EST+t | UST=urr—t | urT=¥j A 0 ore 6-6=0 6 B 6 [647 13 c 6 |6+8 7 D 13 |13+20-33 732 We ipul’s Operations Research (BMS) (Nx) It can be verified that for each critical activity, EST=[sT and EFT = LFT eg. for’E: EST =13,LST = 13 EFT =31, LFT=31 (© Paths in the Network: (using te) ( A-B-E-G-1- [He Daya | A-B-D-H-I=42Days | (iii) A-~C-F-H-1-33 Days | :. Critical path = A-B-E-G-I Expected project completion time = 46 Days $16 + 2564 64+ (@) Variance of critical path = 16+16+ 296+ 6444 Z =287 Table value = 0.4979 (5 Days) =05 + 0.4979 +: (PGS Days) = 0.9979 = 9.79%] (© Probability = 99% =099 « Table value =0.99-0.5= 049 Nearest value = 0.4901 2-233Since, CP. = 46 Days [Difference = 533-46=7.3Days] ggg «+ The project should be started 7.3 Days before the scheduled start. Example 6: (MU, April 2011) A Project manager has made following 3 point time estimates for various activities of a project. Events ‘Three point estimates in days ‘Optimistic | Mostlikely | Pe 1-2 6 6 1-3 6 2 1-4 2 2 2-5 6 6 3-5 2 30 4-6 2 30 s-6 | 38 30 (@) Draw the PERT network and find out the expected project completion time. (6) What project completion will have 90% confidence of completion? (©) If there is a huge penalty for exceeding the project completion deadline of 4 days beyond estimated completion time (50% confidence), what is the probability of being penalized? Solution: w ‘Activity ee 1-2 1-3 144/36 1-4 2-5 6 3-5 30 1296/36 = 36 4-6 9 526 2 1296/36 = 36a 6 BEG. Viput’s operations Research (8MS) (ne Network diagram: Fig. 9.14 Paths: () 1-2-5-6=47 days @) (T23=3=6= 74 day SD. of citcal path = 76 = 872 days (Gi) Probability = 90% =09 ’. Table value =0.9-0.5=04 Nearest value = 0.4015 Z 2129 T-cP SD, 1-74 129 =a T= 6525 da i) 4 days beyond estimated completion time = 4 + 74 = 78 days Penalty will be imposed if project is not completed in 78 days. P (Non-completion in 78 days) = 1-P (completion in 78 days) P (days) Table value = 0.1772 P(Bdays) =0.1772 +05 = 06772"Network Analysis - It B90 3s = P (Non-completion) = 1 — 0.6772 = 0.3228] ©: Probability of being penalized is 0.3228, Example 7: M/s BMS have taken up a special project consisting of 8 activities ‘whose three point time estimates are listed in the table below. Activities are marked with their node numbers. ‘Activity Node ‘Time Estimates In Weeks Numbers [ Optimistic Time | Most Likely Time 2 1 3 13 2 4 25 3 5 24 5 6 56 5 7 46 6 8 36 7 9 62 2 3 (@)_ Draw the PERT network for the project and identify the critical path. @) Prepare a chart to show estimated time for each activity and standard deviation and variance for critical activities from time estimates as given above. (3) IF 21 weeks deadline is imposed, what is the probability that the project will be finished within that time? (4) If the project manager wants to be 99% certain that the project should be completed on schedule what will be the project duration? (MU, April 2009) Solution: (1) NETWORK DIAGRAM:Bs as WOR Viput’s Operations Research (@MS) he) Table 96 Expected time (weeks) | Standard deviation er as dae Feet dae eo .ttineh < % 7 ig i é % @ 16 B é % 2-5 5 4 % z 4 a4 6 3 g 5-6 7 4 # 6 ° 4 i 3-6 3 is i 6-7 3 2 4 Paths in the Network: (1) 1-2-4-6~-7: Duration = [20 weeks] @) 1-2-5-6-7: Duration = 18 weeks (@)_1-3-6-7: Duration = 16 weeks :. Critical path = Path 1-2-4-6~7 «Expected project completion time = 20 weeks Variance of critical path = Sum of variance of critical activities 16+4+16+4 40 _ 3 3g = 111 ince of Critical Path S.Doferitical path = 05 weeks] 2. SD. of Critical path = fit = U1] DEADLINE OF 21 WEEKS: z= Due Date - Expected Project Completion Date = ‘“WProject VarianceNetwor ek Analysis geo oo «: Area under standard normal curve = 0.3289 P (21 weeks) = 0.5 + 0:3289= 0.8289] ‘The probability that the project will be finished in 21 weeks is 0.8289. uv) Nearest value of 0.49 = PROJECT DURATION FOR 99% PROBABILITY: P =99% =0.99 Area under standard normal curve = 099-05 = 0.49 14901 For 0.4901, z = 2.33 1 ~ Due Date - Expected Project Completion Date “WProject Variance Due Date~20 233 =“ = Due Date = (2:33 1.05) + 20 = 22.45 weeks] Project duration for 99% probability will be 22.45 weeks. Example 8: Details of nine activities of a project are as follows ‘Activity “Time in days Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic 12 z 5 4 +6 2 5 8 23 5 0 2» 24 1 4 7 38 5 u ” 45 2 5 “ 67 3 9 7 58 2 2 8 78 7 B 31 (@) Draw the network diagram and determine various paths and their durations. (b) Calculate the probability of completion of the project in 38 days. © Calculate the project duration if the probability of project completion is to be 94.5%. (Mu, April 2008)388 a ‘Vipul’s Operations Research (BMS) (Nk) 0 ao pelts on Solution: {11 NETWORK DIAGRAM: Fig. 9:16 Table 97 Activity | _ Expected time (days) 2 *#E*® 1-2 6 1-6 5 2-3 B 24 4 3-5 1" 4-5 6 8-7, u 5-8 3 7-8 5 Paths in the Network: (@) 1-2-3-5- @ Duration = [33 days]"Network Analysis - it 990 38 Variance of Critical Path = Sum of Variance of Critical Activities 44164441225 S.Dof critical Path = Variance of Critical Path S.D. of Critical Path = [25 = 5 da (1) PROBABILITY OF COMPLETION OF THE PROJECT IN 38, DAYS: z_ = Due Date— Expected Project Completion Date ‘Project Variance 38-33 2 Sora ‘Area under standard normal curve =| PS days) =05 + 03413. ‘The probability of completion of the project in 38 days is 0.8413. Ml] PROJECT DURATION FOR 94.5% PROBABILITY: P =945% = 0945, ‘Area under standard normal curve = 0.945 - 0.5 = 0.445 Nearest value of 0.445 = 0.4452 2 =160 Due Date - Expected Project Completion Date oe ‘Standard Deviation rap = Duebue=38 = Due Date = (1.605) +3341 days| ‘The project duration corresponding to 94.5% probability is 41 days. CONCEPT QUESTIONS: (1) What are three time estimates in PERT? ‘Ans.: Three time estimates in PERT (2) Optimistic time (to’ OR ‘a’ It is the earliest possible completion time of an activity. Hence, itis the shortest time. ‘An activity will get completed in optimistic time when everything happens according to the plan. Nothing goes wrong. There are no delays, postponement etc. (6 Pessimistic time (tp’ ORB Itis the maximum possible time taken by an activity for completion. Hence, itis the longest time.