Lecture 1 - Introduction To Statistics

Introduction to Statistics
Lecture 1 - Introduction to Statistics

Objectives
• Statistics
• Main Divisions of Statistics
• Statistical Investigation Steps
• Importance of Statistics
• Limitations of Statistics
• Fallacies/misuse of statistics
Terminologies
• Population(or universe)
• Is the totality of all things under consideration.
• Sample
• Is the portion of the population that is selected for analysis.
• Parameter
• Is a summary measure that is computed to describe a characteristic of an
entire population.
• Statistic
• Is a summary measure that is computed to describe a characteristic from only
a sample of the population.
Terminologies…
• Thus, one major aspect of inferential statistics is the process of using
sample statistics to draw conclusions about the true population
parameters.
• The need for inferential methods derives from the need for sampling.
• As the population becomes larger, it is usually too costly, too time
consuming, and too cumbersome to obtain our information from the
entire population.
• So, decisions pertaining to populations characteristics have to be based
on the information contained in a sample of that population
• Data
• Symbols used in counting to represent facts.
Statistics
Photosynthesis
Statistics is the science of collection, organization, presentation, analysis
and interpretation of numerical data.
• According to the above definition, there are five stages in a statistical
investigation.
• It helps us make sense of data(Peck et al, 2015). These stages are:
• Collection
• Organization
• Presentation
• Analysis
• Interpretation
Introduction to Statistics…
Statistical Investigation Steps/Stages
• Collection of Data
• Collection of data constitutes the first step in a statistical investigation.
• Utmost care must be exercised in collecting data because they form
the foundation of statistical analysis.
• If data are faulty, the conclusions drawn can never be reliable.
• The data may be available from existing published or unpublished
sources or else may be collected by the investigator.
• The first-hand collection of data is one of the most difficult and
important tasks faced by a statistician.
Statistical Investigation Steps/Stages…
• Organization of Data
• Data collected from published sources are generally in organized form.
• However, a large mass of figures that are collected from a survey
frequently needs organization.
• The first step in organizing a group of data is editing. The collected
data must be edited very carefully so that omissions, inconsistencies,
irrelevant answers and wrong computations in the returns from a
survey may be corrected or adjusted.
• After the data have been edited the next step is to classify them.
• The purpose of classification is to arrange the data according to some
common characteristics possessed by the items constituting the data.
• The last step in organization is tabulation. The purpose of tabulation is
to arrange the data in columns and rows so that there is absolute
clarity in the data presented.
• Presentation of Data
• After the data have been collected and organized, they are ready for
presentation.
• Data presented in an orderly manner facilitates statistical analysis.
• Data collected may be presented in graphs and diagrams.
• Analysis of Data
• The purpose of analyzing data is to dig out information useful for
decision making.
• Methods used in analyzing the presented data are numerous, ranging
from simple observations of the data to complicated, sophisticated and
highly mathematical techniques.
• We shall discuss the most commonly used methods of statistical
analysis such as measures of central tendency, measure of variation,
correlation, regression.
• Interpretation of Data
• The last in stage in statistical investigation is concerned with drawing conclusions
from the data collected and analyzed.
• The interpretation of data is a difficult task and necessitates a high degree of skill
and experience.
• If the data that have been analyzed are not properly interpreted, the whole
object of the investigation may be defeated and fallacious conclusions be drawn.
• Correct interpretation will lead to a valid conclusion of the study and thus can aid
one in making suitable business decisions.
• Since statistical methods help in making decisions, statistics may be rightly
regarded as a body of methods for making wise decisions in the face of
uncertainty.
• A modified form of this definition is given by Professor Yan- Lun-Chou in whose
words, statistics is a method of decision making in the face of uncertainty on the
basis of numerical data and calculated risks.
• Divisions of Statistics
• Statistics as a science can be divided into two main classes:
• Statistical methods
• Applied statistics
• Statistical methods
• In statistical methods, we study all those devices, rules of
procedures and general principles which are applicable to all
kinds or groups of data.
• They are the tools in the hands of a statistical investigator.
They are the devices for achieving the desired ends explained
in theory.
• Applied Statistics
• Applied statistics deal with the application of statistical
methods to specific problems. Just like statistical methods,
applied statistics can be further divided into two main groups.
• These are:
• Descriptive statistics
• Inferential statistics
• These are methods involving the collection, presentation and
characterization of data in order to properly explain the various features
of that set of data.
• Areas covered under descriptive statistics include:
• Collection of data
• Organization and presentation of data
• Measures of central tendency
• Measures of dispersion
• They are those methods that make possible the estimation of a
characteristic of a population or the making of a decision
concerning a population based only on sample results.
• In other words, it is the process of reaching generalizations
about the whole population by examining a portion.
• Areas covered under inferential statistics (Larson et al, 2019)
include:
• Probability theory
• Sampling distributions
• Theory of estimation
• Hypothesis testing...
• Importance of Statistics
• People use statistics as tools to understand information.
• Statistics involves making decisions, and in the business world, you
often have to make a quick decision then and there.
• Using statistics, you can plan the production according to what the
customer likes and wants, and you can check the quality of the
products far more efficiently with statistical methods.
• Economists use statistics to collect information, analyze data, and test
hypotheses. Relationships between supply and demand and imports
and exports are found using statistical information.
• Banks use statistics for a great number of the services they offer. A
bank works on the idea that someone will deposit their money and not
withdraw all of it later on.
• Importance of Statistics…
• A nation’s government runs on statistics. They use statistical data to
make their decisions regarding any number of things.
Example: Provisional budget.
• Astronomers use estimates and mathematical theories to devise their
best guess to just how far items in the universe are away from each
other. It is impossible to take out a ruler and measure the distance of
the Earth from the sun.
• Limitations of Statistics…
• Statistics is indispensable to almost all sciences. It is very often used in most of
the spheres of human activity. Some important limitations of statistics are the
following:
• Statistics does not study qualitative phenomena
• Statistics deals with facts and figures.
• So the quality aspect of a variable or the subjective phenomenon falls out of
the scope of statistics.
• For example, qualities like beauty, honesty, intelligence etc. cannot be
numerically expressed.
• So these characteristics cannot be examined statistically. This limits the
scope of the subject.
• Statistical laws are not exact
• Statistical laws are not exact as incase of natural sciences. These laws are
true only on average. They hold good under certain conditions.
• They cannot be universally applied. So statistics has less practical utility.
following:
• Statistics does not study individuals
• Statistics deals with aggregate of facts. Single or isolated figures
are not statistics.
• This is considered to be a major handicap of statistics.
following:
• Statistics can be misused
• Statistics is mostly a tool of analysis. Statistical techniques are used to
analyze and interpret the collected information in an enquiry. As it is,
statistics does not prove or disprove anything. It is just a means to an
end.
• Statements supported by statistics are more appealing and are
commonly believed.
• For this, statistics is often misused. Statistical methods rightly used are
beneficial but if misused these become harmful.
• Statistical methods used by less expert hands will lead to inaccurate
results. Here the fault does not lie with the subject of statistics but with
the person who makes wrong use of it.
• Statistical Fallacies/misuse of Statistics
• Misuse
• A misuse of statistics occurs when a statistical argument asserts a
falsehood. In some cases, the misuse may be accidental. In
others, it is purposeful and for the gain of the perpetrator.
• Fallacy
• When the statistical reason involved is false or misapplied, this
constitutes a statistical fallacy.
• Types of Misuse
• Discarding unfavorable data
• Loaded questions
• The answers to surveys can often be manipulated by wording
the question in such a way as to induce a prevalence towards a
certain answer from the respondent.
• Overgeneralization
• With a subject of which the general public has no personal
knowledge, you can fool a lot of people.
• Biased samples
• Misreporting or misunderstanding of estimated error
• False causality
• Proof of the null hypothesis -If data does not give us enough
proof to reject the Ho, this does not automatically prove that
Ho is correct.
• Types of Misuse
• Data dredging
• Data dredging is an abuse of data mining
• Data manipulation
• Data manipulation is the presentation of scientific data in a misleading
way to support a hypothesis that is actually without merit.
• Linguistically asserting unit measure when it is empirically violated-
Unit measure is an axiom of probability theory which states that,
when an event is certain to occur, its probability is 1.
• This axiom is consistent with the empirical world, if the relation from a
set of events that are certain to occur to a set of physical objects is
one-to-one, but not otherwise. In the latter case, unit measure is
scientifically invalidated.
• Misleading graphical representations
• Deception
• Types of Fallacies
• Fallacies are anomalies that considerably reduce the credibility of a
report.
• Confusing correlation with causation
• A correlation is when two variables vary together, whereas causation
occurs when one factor causes the other. It may be tempting to think
that the former implies the latter, but that is hardly ever the case.
• Post hoc
• Post hoc denotes the fallacy of thinking that A causes B just because B
follows A in time.
• Types of Fallacies…
• Thinking that the average says anything about the spread
• It is the fallacy of claiming that the average say, intelligence or
prevalence of crime, is different in a particular group A compared
with another group B, therefore, it is reasonable to treat individuals
in group A as if they, say, had lower intelligence or higher
prevalence of crime.
• Confusing a priori probability of a specific event with a fortiori
probability of a specific class of events
• It revolves around asserting that this or that biological structure
has a very low probability of arising, because, say, the mutations
needed are so improbable to occur in the right sequence, so
therefore, evolution cannot have produced them.
• Types of Fallacies…
• Confusing statistical significance with clinical significance
• The term “statistical significance” just means that there is a
low probability that the results (or something more extreme)
would have occurred if the null hypothesis was true. However,
this says nothing about the probability of the null hypothesis
given the evidence. It also does not mean that the results are
“significant” in a clinical or scientific context.
Research
• Use a case study to show all the five stages of statistical
investigation while highlighting the challenges faced by the
investigator.
Review Questions
• Differentiate between Data and Information.
• Discuss the five stages of statistical investigation.
• Distinguish the two categories of applied statistics.
• State the importance and limitations of statistics.
• Highlight any misuse of Statistics.
• Describe any type of fallacies in Statistics.
References
• Online
• E-resources
• Peck, R., Olsen, C., & Devore, J. L. (2015). Introduction to
statistics and data analysis. Cengage Learning.
• Larson, R., & Farber, B. (2019). Elementary statistics. Pearson
Education Canada.
• Books
• E-books
• Library

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