15.

PROBABILITY

n Some basic concepts/terms

l Random experiment

If it satisfies the following two conditions :

} It has more than one possible outcomes.

} It is not possible to predict the outcome (result) in advance.

l Outcomes : The possible results of a random experiment are called outcomes.

l Trial : When an experiment is repeated under similar conditions and it does not give the same result each time
but may result in any one of the several possible outcomes, the result is called a trial.

l Event : The collection of all or some outcomes of a random experiment is called an event.

l Elementary or Simple Event : An outcome of a trial is called an elementary event.

} An elementary event has only one element.

l Compound event or composite event or mixed event

A compound event is an aggregate of some simple (elementary) event and is decomposable into simple events.

Ex. If we throw a die, then the event E of getting an odd number is a compound event because the event E
contains three elements 1, 3 and 5, which is a compound of three simple events E1, E2 and E3 containing 1, 3
and 5 respectively.

l Equally likely events : The out comes of an experiment are said to be equally likely events if the chances of
their happenings are neither less nor greater than other.

In other words, a given number of events are said to be equally likely if none of them is expected to occur in
preference to the others.

Ex. In tossing a coin, getting head (H) and tail (T) are equally likely events.

n Experimental (or empirical) probability

The experimental or empirical probability P(E) of an event is defined as

Number of trials in which the event happened m

} If P(E) denotes the empirical probability for happening an event and P (E) denotes the probability for not

happening the same event then P(E) + P (E) = 1 and 0 < P(E) < 1

} Sum of the probability of all the outcomes of a random experiment is 1

} When all the outcomes of a random experiment favour an event, the event is called a sure event and its
empirical probability is 1.

} When no outcome of a random experiment favours an event, the event is called an impossible event and
its empirical probability is 0.
n Odds in Favour and Odds Against an Event
As a result of an experiment, if p of the outcomes are favourable to an event E and q of the outcomes are
against it then we say that odds are p to q in favour of E or odds are q to p against E.
number of favourable cases p
\ Odds in favour of an event E = number of unfavourable cases = q

number of unfavourable cases q

p
If odds in favour of an event E are p : q then the probability of the occurrence of that event is
p+q

q
Similarly the probability of the non-occurrence of that event is
p+q

n Definition
Before defining probability, we must be acquainted with the most common terms used in it.
(i) Event: The possible outcomes of a random experiment.
(ii) Various type of events:
(a) Mutually Exclusive Events: Two or more than two events are said to be mutually excluisve, if they
cannot occur at the same time.
For example, in tossing a coin, the events ‘Head’ and ‘Tail’ are mutually exclusive.
(b) Equally Likely Events : Two or more than two events are said to be equally likely if none of the events
can occur in preference to the other.
For example, in throwing a dice, all the six faces are equally likely events.
(c) Exhaustive Events: Events are said to be exhaustive if atleast one of them must necessarily occur.
For example, in throwing a dice, the exhaustive events are six—1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.
(d) Independent Events: Events are said to be independent if the occurrence or non-occurrence of one
event does not influence the occurrence or non-occurrence of the other event.
For example, if a fair coin is tossed twice, the event ‘Head’ in the first toss and the event ‘Head’ in the
second toss are independent since the occurrence of ‘Head’ in any toss does not influence the occurrence
of Head in the other toss.
(e) Dependent Events: It implies that occurrence of one event affects the occurrence of the other event.
For example, if 2 cards are drawn without replacement from a well-shuffled pack of card, the events ‘A’
(black card in the first draw) and ‘B’ (black card in the second draw) are independent.
n Classical Definition of Probability
If ‘t’ is the total number of equally likely and exhaustive possible outcomes in a random experiment and out of
these outcomes a is the number of outcomes favourable to event A, then the probability of event

a
A = p(A) =
T

no. of combination / arrangement favourable to event

No. of favourable outcome for event

Therefore,
 probability that event A will not occur = p A = 1 - a
( ) T

In other words, if ‘p’ is the probability of the happening of an event, the probability of its not happening is 1 – p

n Notations
Some of the natations used in solving a problem on Probability are as follows:

P (any event) Þ Probability of occurrence of any event as desired

P (A) Þ Probability of occurrence of event A

P (A) Þ Probability that event A fails to occur

P(A + B) Þ Probability of occurrence of atleast one of the events A and B (i.e. either A or B or both will occur)

P (AB) Þ Probability that both A and B occur together

P (AB) Þ Probability that event A occurs but event B does not occur

P(A/B) Þ Probability that event A occurs, if event B has already occurred. This is called dependent
(or conditional) probability.

n Formula on Probability
Mutually Exclusive Events

If there are two or more than two mutually exclusive events, then only one event will occur at a time.

The probability that only one event occurs out of the given two or more than two mutually exclusive events is the
sum of the separate probabilities of each of the given events.

P (any one) = P1 + P2 + ..... + Pn

where P1, P2 ...... Pn are the separate probabilities of each of the given ‘n’ mutually exclusive event.

So for any two events A and B,

P (any one out of A and B occurs) = P(A) + P(B)

= P (A + B)

Similarly, probability that none of the ‘n’ mutually exclusive events occur is given by

P(none) = 1 – P (any one) = 1 – [P1 + P2 ....... + Pn]

For any two events A and B,

P(neither A nor B occurs) = P (none)

= 1 – P (A + B)

= 1 – [P(A) + P(B)]
n Independent Events
If there are two or more than two independent events, then any of the events can occur at any time independ-
ently. The probability of each of the given events.

P(all) = P1 × P2 × P3 .... × Pn

Where P1, P2, ...... Pn are the separate probabilities of each of the given ‘n’ independent events.

For any two events A and B,

P (both A and B occurs) = P (A) . P (B)

Similarly, probability that none of the ‘n’ independent events occur is given by,

P (none) = P1 ´ P2 ´ P3 ´ .... ´ Pn

where, P1 , P2 ,.....Pn are the probabilities that each of the given ‘n’ independent events will not occur..

For any two events A and B,

P (neither A nor B occurs) = P (none) = P(A), P(B)

Now, the probability that atleast one out of the given ‘n’ independent events occur is given by

P(atleast one) = 1 – P (none)

(
= 1 – P1 ´ P2 ´ .....Pn )
For any two events A and B,

P (alteast one event occurs) = 1 – [P ( A) ´ P (B )]

None: P ( A ) = 1 P (A), for any event A

n Dependent Event (or Conditional Events)

1. P (both occur) = P(AB) = P(A). P(B/A)

= (Prob. of A). (Dependent prob. of B, given that A has occurred)

= P(B) . P(A/B)

= (Prob. of B) . (Dependent prob. of A, given that B has occurred)

2. P (none) = P ( A.B ) = P ( A ).P (B / A ) = P ( B ).P ( A / B )

3. P (none) = P ( AB ) = 1 – P (AB)
PROBABILITY EXERCISE
1. The events A and B are mutually exclusive, so 9. Two dice are thrown simultaneously. What is the
(1) Prob (A or B) = Prob (A) + Prob (B) probability of getting a number other than 4 on any
dice ?
(2) Prob (A and B) = Prob (A) × Prob (B)
(3) Prob (A) = Prob (B) 25 1 17 2
(1) (2) (3) (4)
(4) Prob (A) + Prob (B) = 1 36 3 36 3
2. A box contains 3 yellow, 2 red, 4 green and 3 black 10. In a single throw with two dice, find the probabilty
marbles. Two marbles are taken one after the other of throwning an even number on one and a multi-
at random from the box. What is the probability that ple of 3 on the other.
both marbles are red ?
1 5 11 5
1 1 1 2 (1) (2) (3) (4)
(1) (2) (3) (4) 6 36 36 6
50 60 66 57
11. Two dice are thrown at a time. Find the probability
3. What is the probability that a two digit number se- that the difference of numbers shown on the dice is 2.
lected at random will be a multiple of ‘3’ and not a
multipleof ‘5’ ? 13 19 11 8
(1) (2) (3) (4)
36 36 36 36
2 4 1 4
(1) (2) (3) (4) 12. An anti aircraft gun can fire four shots at a time. If
15 15 15 90
the probabilities of the first, second, third and the
4. Which of the following cannot be the probability of
last shot hitting the enemy aircraft are 0.7, 0.6, 0.5
an event ? and 0.4, what is the probability that four shots aimed
1 at an enemy aircraft will bring the aircraft down ?
(1) (2) 20% (3) 1.2 (4) 0.3
4 (1) 0.084 (2) 0.916 (3) 0.036 (4) 0.964

5. In a single throw of a die, find the probability of 13. A number is selected at random from first thirty
getting a composite number. natural numbers. What is the chance that it is a
multiple of either 3 or 13 ?
1 1 1 1
(1) (2) (3) (4) 17 2 11 4
5 2 3 4 (1) (2) (3) (4)
30 5 30 15
6. In a simultaneous throw of a pair of dice, find the
probability of getting equal numbers. 14. A man can hit a target once in 4 shots. If he fires 4
shots in succession, what is the probability that he
3 1 1 5 will hit his target ?
(1) (2) (3) (4)
4 4 6 6
1 81 175
7. In a simultaneous throw of a pair of dice, find the (1) 1 (2) (3) (4)
256 256 256
probability of getting a sum, which is a perfect
square ? 15. Three numbers are chosen from 1 to 8. Find the
probability for the 3 chosen numbers to be consecu-
13 7 11 5 tive.
(1) (2) (3) (4)
36 36 36 36
11 3 5 9
8. In a simultaneous throw of a pair of dice, find the (1) (2) (3) (4)
18 28 28 28
probability of getting prime numbers on both the
faces. 16. What is the probability of getting at least one six in
a single throw of three unbiased dice ?
11 11 1 11
(1) (2) (3) (4) 1 125 1 91
3 36 4 15
(1) (2) (3) (4)
6 216 36 216
17. Two dice are thrown simultaneously. The probabil- 26. An urn contains 9 balls two of which are red, three
ity that atleast one will show its digit greater than 3 is blue and four black. Three balls are drawn at ran-
dom. The probability that they are of the same col-
1 3 1 1 our is .
(1) (2) (3) (4)
4 4 2 8
5 3 3 7
18. Two dice are thrown simultaneously. The probabil- (1) (2) (3) (4)
84 9 7 17
ity of obtaining a total score of 5 is
27. What is the probability of drawing a ‘king’ from a
1 1 1 well-shuffled deck of 52 cards ?
(1) (2) (3) (4) None
18 12 9
1 2 3 4
19. The probability of getting a total of 10 in a single (1) (2) (3) (4)
13 13 13 13
throw of two dice is
Directions (for Q.No. 28-32) : Three fair coins are
1 1 1 5 tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of
(1) (2) (3) (4)
9 12 6 36 28. Getting one tail
20. Two dice are thrown together. The probability that
1 5 3
neither they show equal digits nor the sum of their (1) 1 (2) (3) (4)
4 8 8
digits is 9 will be
29. Getting atleast one head
13 13 1 8 7 1 3 1
(1) (2) (3) (4) (1) (2) (3) (4)
15 18 9 9 8 8 4 4
21. A pack of cards contains 4 aces, 4 kings, 4 queens 30. Getting atleast two heads
and 4 jacks. Two cards are drawn at random. The
3 7 1 1
probability that at least one of them is an ace is (1) (2) (3) (4)
8 8 2 4
1 3 9 1 31. Getting atleast one head and one tail
(1) (2) (3) (4)
5 16 20 9
2 1 3 3
22. The probability that a leap year will have 53 Fri- (1) (2) (3) (4)
8 2 10 4
days or 53 Saturdays is
32. Getting more heads than the number of tails
2 3 4 1
(1) (2) (3) (4) 7 5 1
7 7 7 7 (1) 2 (2) (3) (4)
8 8 2
23. A box contains 10 good articles and 6 defective
Directions (for Q.No. 33 and 34) : A coin is tossed
articles. One items is drawn at random. The prob-
successively three times. Find the probability of
ability that it is either good or has a defect, is
33. Getting exactly one head or two heads.
64 49 40 24
(1) (2) (3) (4) 1 3 1 3
64 64 64 64 (1) (2) (3) (4)
4 4 2 8
24. Three integers are chosen at random from the fist 34. Getting no heads.
20 integers. The probability that their product is
even is 1 7
(1) 0 (2) 1 (3) (4)
8 8
2 3 17 4
(1) (2) (3) (4) Directions (for Q.No. 35-37) : One card is drawn from
19 29 19 19
a pack of 52 cards, each of the 52 cards being equally
25. A bag contains 5 black balls, 4 white balls and 3 likely to be drawn. Find the probability that
red balls. If a ball is selected randomwise, the prob- 35. The card drawn is either a heart, a king or a queen.
ability that it is black or red ball is
17 21 19 9
(1) (2) (3) (4)
1 1 5 2 52 52 52 26
(1) (2) (3) (4)
3 4 12 3
36. The card drawn is neither a spade nor a king. 45. The odds against a certain event are 5:2. and the
odds in favour of another event independent of the
9 1 4 former are 6:5. The change that at least one of the
(1) 0 (2) (3) (4)
13 2 13
events will happen is
37. The card drawn is neither a ace nor a king. 25 52
(1) (2)
77 77
11 1 2 11 (3) 1 (4) None of the above
(1) (2) (3) (4)
13 2 13 26
46. The odds in favour of A winning a game of badminton
38. The odds in favour of an event are 2:7. Find the against B are 5:2 If 3 games are to be played, what
probability of occurrence of this event. are the odds in favour of A’s winning at least one
2 game?
5 7 2
(1) (2) (3) (4)
9 12 12 5 (1) 425:5 (2) 365:1
39. The odds against of an event are 5:7. Find the (3) 335:8 (4) None of these
probability of occurrence of this event. 47. The odds in favour of A winning a game against B
3 7 2 5 is 4:3. If three games are to be played to decide
(1) (2) (3) (4)
8 12 7 12 the overall winner, the odds in favour of A winning
40. There are five Re 1 coins, two Rs 2 coins and three alteast once is
Rs 5 coins. If two coins are selected simultaneously (1) 343:27 (2) 316:27
at random, what is the probabolity of yielding the (3) 343:316 (4) None of these
maximum amount?
48. A lot of 12 bulbs contains 4 defective bulbs. Three
1 1 1 3 bulbs are drawn at random from the lot, one after
(1) (2) (3) (4)
10 5 15 10 the other. The probility that all three are non
41. One card is selected from a well shuffled pack of defective is
cards, what is the probability that it is a red honored
card? 14 8
(1) (2)
55 12
2 3 11 9
(1) (2) (3) (4)
13 13 13 13
1
(3) (4) None of these
42. The probability that the month of April has exactly 27
5 Monday is
49. Three riflemen take one shot each at the same
4 5 3 2 target. The probability of the first refleman hitting
(1) (2) (3) (4) the target is 0.4, the probability of the second
7 7 7 7
rifleman hitting the target is 0.5 and the probability
43. Hundred cards marked with numbers 1 to 100 are of the third rifleman hitting the target is 0.8. The
placed in a box. If a card is selected randomly from probability that exactly two of them hit the target, is
the box, then the probability that the number on
(1) 0.54 (2) 0.44
the card selected will be a perfect square is :-
(3) 0.32 (4) 0.52
1 1 1 9
(1) (2) (3) (4)
100 25 10 10 50. 100 students appeared for two examinations. 60
44. Two dice are tossed. The probability that the total passed the first, 50 passed the second and 30
score is a prime number is passed both. The probability that a student selected
at random has failed in both examinations is
1 5 1 7
(1) (2) (3) (4) (1) 0.3 (2) 0.2
6 12 2 9
(3) 0.4 (4) 0.1
51. There are 100 students in a college class of which 54. Eight coins are tossed simultaneously. The
36 are boys studying Statistics and 13 girls are not probability of getting at least 6 heads is
studying Statistics. If there are 55 girls in all, the
probility that a boy picked up at random in not 1 37
(1) (2)
studing Statistics is 13 256

1 2 3 4 25
(1) (2) (3) (4) (3) (4) None of these
5 5 5 5 57
52. A five-digit number is formed by using the digits 1,
55. A bag has 4 red and 5 black balls. A second bag
2, 3, 4 and 5 without repetitions. What is the
has 3 red and 7 black balls. One ball is drawn from
probability that the number is divisible by 4
the first bag and two from the second. The
1 5
(1) (2) probability that there are two black balls and a red
5 6 ball is
4
(3) (4) None of these 14 11
5 (1) (2)
45 45
53. One card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. What
is the probability that the card drawn is either a red
7 9
card or a king? (3) (4)
15 54
1 6 7 27
(1) (2) (3) (4)
2 13 13 52

ANSWER KEY
Que. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Ans. 1 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 4 4 2 4
Que. 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Ans. 4 2 3 2 2 3 2 1 3 4 1 1 4 1
Que. 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
Ans. 4 4 2 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 1 4 3 2
Que. 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55
Ans. 3 1 2 2 1 1 4 3 4 3