Energy Reports 8 (2022) 10881–10894

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Energy Reports
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/egyr

An integrated building energy simulation early—Design tool for future

heating and cooling demand assessment
∗
Francesco Guarino a , , Giovanni Tumminia b , Sonia Longo a , Maurizio Cellura a ,
Maria Anna Cusenza a
a
University of Palermo, Department of Engineering, Viale delle Scienze, Building 9, 90138 Palermo, Italy
b
Institute for Advanced Energy Technologies ‘‘Nicola Giordano’’ - National Research Council of Italy,
Via Salita S. Lucia Sopra Contesse 5, 98126 Messina, Italy

article info a b s t r a c t

Article history: Climate change and its effects are becoming clear on a global scale either from the perspective of global
Received 15 December 2021 warming and the increase in the rate of occurrence of weather events of extreme magnitude. This has
Received in revised form 10 August 2022 impacts also for sure on the standard building performance analysis approach, since the buildings
Accepted 18 August 2022
designed today are supposed to withstand for the following decades climate impacts that may be
Available online xxxx
different than those they were designed for.
Keywords: The paper proposes a simple, easy to use and freely available building simulation utility which
Building energy simulation performs morphing of existing weather data files and, by connecting to the Energy Plus simulation
Climate change routine, allows to perform future climate building simulation analyses. Users are required to select
Global warming one of the ASHRAE buildings models or provide one of their own choosing and to input the original
Heating and cooling
weather data file. The tool will generate a future weather data file with the preferred assumptions
Climate change tool
(e.g. RCP scenarios, time frame) and elaborate results in terms of heating and cooling required for air
conditioning.
The paper proposes also an implementation of the tool to a case study aimed at showing the
potential of the application proposed. A typical office building model from the ASHRAE library was
simulated in two different locations under different climate change assumptions up to the year 2090.
The analysis of the results in the two locations of Palermo (Italy) and Copenhagen (Denmark) highlight
relevant increases in the current century of up to +20% of cooling requirements and similar reductions
for heating in both case studies, if compared to current levels.
The research targets a specific limit in the investigation of climate resilience of buildings and follows
the principles described by SDSN in the definition of SDGs and the interest at the EU level towards
climate neutral and innovative cities.
In this context, the paper may contribute to the limited availability of easy to use and free tools
available for practitioners to investigate the design of climate resilience buildings.
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND
license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

1. Introduction weather events, which rate of appearance has been increasing

dramatically in the past few years (Gunay et al., 2013).
The effects of climate change are widespread into different ar- In the past years, very high temperature values and prolonged
eas and domains, including also potential future repercussions on heat waves have set all time high records in many countries
nearly all sustainable development goals, as substantial variations throughout the world, with 48 ◦ C registered in Portugal and
on current climate patterns might impact the standards of living Spain, 41 ◦ C in Tokyo in late July and also in South Korea in the
for people throughout the world. past years, temperature surpassed high thresholds more than a
Poverty, hunger, health and wellbeing, clean water and saniti- hundred year old.
zation, affordable and clean energy, cities and communities – just However, the consequences of climate change do not only ap-
to mention some of the most relevant Sustainable Development ply to specific extreme events, as their impacts can be widespread
goals – can and will be impacted by an increase of extreme also on average trends on most climate weather variables
(Moazami et al., 2019b).
∗ Corresponding author. The intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Lucon
E-mail address: [email protected] (F. Guarino). et al., 2014) states unequivocally that if a joint global effort

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2022.08.224
2352-4847/© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/).
F. Guarino, G. Tumminia, S. Longo et al. Energy Reports 8 (2022) 10881–10894

that buildings constructed today will be facing a very different

Nomenclature climate in some decades, with the risk that a good design adapted
AR5 IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report to the current climate will perform poorly in twenty to thirty
ASHRAE American Society of Heating, Refrigerat- years from. Although there is a wide variability within current
ing and Air-conditioning Engineers available climate change estimations, scenarios and tools – that
mainly lies in how efficiently our current system will be able
GCM General Circulation Model
to advocate decarbonization efforts in the next decades – the
HVAC Heating, Ventilation and Air Condition-
use of provisional tools to investigate future climate data files is
ing paramount to achieve more efficient building design.
IPCC Intergovernmental panel on climate Lastly, it is worth mentioning that practitioners usually do not
change have enough instruments and tools available to approach with
p Predicted value of the atmospheric the required degree of detail building design while including the
pressure effect of global warming, let alone approach detailed dynamic
p0 Present value of the atmospheric pres- building simulations while taking in considerations global warm-
sure ing scenarios which require usually the use and manipulation of
r Predicted value of global horizontal large amounts of datasets and specific weather databases. Since
radiation IPCC scenarios for the next century depict trends and increases
r0 Present value of global horizontal radi- in average temperature alone by up to 5–6 ◦ C, failing to take
ation these factors in considerations when performing a building design
RCM Regional Climate Models will have significant impacts on the performances of the building
RCP Representative Concentration Pathways sector itself in next decade: this means that it is much needed
to develop innovative design tools help in developing solutions
SHGC Solar Heat Gain Coefficient
for resilient to climate change, thus starting to design buildings
t Predicted value of dry-bulb tempera-
today for the future.
ture
t0 Present value of dry-bulb temperature State of the art
t0max,m Monthly mean of the current daily The application of global warming considerations within build-
maximum temperature ing simulation weather data is based on different methodologies
t0min,m Monthly mean of the current minimum and approaches that will be briefly recapped in the following.
daily temperature
1.1. Climate change scenarios modelling approach
WWR Window-to-wall ratio
x0 Current hourly climate variable Concerning the climate change modelling approaches, in the
αrm Scaling factor in monthly global hori- past decades IPCC has developed several scenarios and climate
zontal radiation for the month m change projections, in different assessment reports starting in
αtm Scaling factor for the dry-bulb temper- 1990 up to the assessment report five in 2007 and six in 2022,
ature where specific scenarios called ‘‘Representative Concentration
∆pm Monthly increment in atmospheric Pathways’’ were based on the change in net radiative flux at
pressure the tropopause, due to a modification in the climate change,
∆rm Absolute increment for monthly aver- i.e. the concentration of carbon dioxide. The scenarios, defined
age solar shortwave flux received at the as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5
surface are based on the increasing provisional radiating forcing, with the
∆tm Predicted monthly daily mean temper- RCP 8.5 being a business as usual scenario with increasing values
ature of radiating forcing up to 2100 and onwards and RCP 2.6 being
∆tmax,m Predicted monthly daily maximum a conservative, declining carbon emission scenario (Roberge and
temperature Sushama, 2018; Edenhofer et al., 2014).
∆tmin,m Predicted monthly daily minimum tem- It is nevertheless worth mentioning that these scenarios do
perature not specifically give indications or estimations about global
warming (Ghoniem, 2011) per se, but rather investigate the
variations of the causes i.e. carbon dioxide concentration in the
atmosphere.
The first modelling approach towards the quantification of
towards decarbonization of all sectors of the economy is not
actively pursued, a significant increase of the average air temper- global warming effect is achieved usually through the use of
ature at planetary scale by the end of the current century even General Circulation Models (GCM) (2018): they are numerical
by more than 4.5 degrees should be expected. models of the main physical processes in the atmosphere, oceans
In this perspective it is not possible to overlook the building and land surface and are usually considered the state of the art
sector, as it is one of the most highly energy consuming (Cellura on modelling and simulation of the global climate system. These
et al., 2018a; Sartori and Hestnes, 2007). models are based on three-dimensional grids with resolution of
The building sector direct emissions on a global scale are in around 250 km, based on the calculation of energy, mass, airflow
fact on a rising trend, over 3 Gt CO2 in 2018, with a slight rebound balances and therefore of all the main weather and climate pa-
than the previous years. If also the indirect emissions are included rameters. While this kind of models represent a very effective
in the calculations, buildings were responsible for 28% of global solution for investigating large scale modifications of the climate
emissions due to energy use in 2018 (Ortiz et al., 2014; Guarino and of the impact of global warming, it does not properly fit
et al., 2015). the requirements of building simulation, whereas a much smaller
Moreover, global warming will continue to evolve unpre- grid is required if a precise site is to be investigated. This is
dictably in the next decades, depending on the current state usually approached through the use of Regional Climate Models
on climate action and politics involvement: this clearly means (RCM) (Jiang et al., 2013; Berardi and Jafarpur, 2020), based
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on similar assumptions than GCMs but rather based on limited In Farah et al. (2019), climate change weather data are devel-
areas and with a higher density of points within the domain of oped through a methodology to integrate climate change char-
interest (Asimakopoulos et al., 2012). acteristics into historical weather data. Air dry bulb temperature
Outputs from either approaches need to be downscaled at the is separated into three time series components and manipu-
local level, to allow for the correct level of detail to be adopted lated through minimum monthly averages, the number of days
within building energy simulation: as such, they usually make use with maximum temperature above a specific level with respect
of either statistical or typical ad hoc methodologies such as the to specific heat waves parameters. Building simulation is also
well known ‘‘morphing’’ method (Cellura et al., 2018b), which is performed for an office building in Adelaide (Australia).
basically aimed at creating modifications of existing weather data In the climate-changed weather conditions, thermal energy
files. requirement for heating might be reduced by more than 20%
Through either approach, the consequences of climate change while cooling might increase by more than 30% with a total
within the analysis of building performances simulation are usu- increase in thermal demands by 5%.
ally confined within the research domain or very specific niche In Moazami et al. (2019a) Moazami et al. investigate the design
practical applications. They are not really investigated within the of future-proofing of buildings through the use of robust design
larger public of practitioners, which either due to the difficulty optimization techniques. The idea is to support practitioners to
and time needed to implement such models and approaches influence their design through easy techniques which may be
and the unfamiliarity with the topic, tend not to involve these able to impact the management of global warming and future
issues within their work practice. However, since buildings are extreme conditions. The analysis has taken in consideration ex-
usually expected to stand for at the very least fifty to seventy treme warm, extreme cold and typical weather conditions and
years (Dixit et al., 2013) after construction, their life cycle is used different objective functions.
certain to be impacted by climate change, which is expected to The performances of the optimized design allow for an 81.5%
potentially make the building operate very differently than in the reduced sensitivity to climate uncertainty, 14.4% reduced mean
original design. Several studies are available with regards to the energy use for heating and cooling if compared to a solution
implications of climate change on the built environment. Some compliant with American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and
most recent and relevant are briefly recapped in the following. Air-conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) 90.1-2016.
Although it is clear from recent literature that the need for ap-
1.2. Climate change effects and building performances
propriate climate-change oriented design of buildings is
paramount to focus energy efficiency targets in the next decades
In Hosseini et al. (2021), an approach to remove the bias from
in the building sector, however, there is a specific need for
GCM data is proposed through a specific workflow including a
applications of the aforementioned solid techniques and method-
hybrid model aimed at downscaling the GCM data in order to
ologies to favour the inclusion of climate change considerations
obtain weather files for the future with hourly timestep to be
within the design process of buildings. In particular, simplified
used within dynamic building energy simulation.
tools and synthesis approaches could be particularly effective
The aim of the study is to use monitored weather data to iden-
at favouring the diffusion of such needed design consideration
tify similar patterns from historical data and use it to generate
among stakeholders and practitioners.
weather data files for future decades, without a proper artificial
Some specific applications available in the state of the art on
generation of data. Only in the case where the GCM data develop
the topic of tools and applications for climate change applied to
into temperatures values outside the monitored range, the ap-
buildings performance will be briefly highlighted in the following.
proach employs a trained regression model to generate hourly
weather data. The approach allows the modelling of extreme In Jentsch et al. (2008), one of the first approaches to the
events. topic is proposed. The approach followed the integration of future
In Bamdad et al. (2021) an ant colony optimization is proposed UK climate scenarios into TMY2 (Jiang et al., 2019) weather
to compare the design of energy optimized solutions in buildings data files in order to be loaded directly into building simulation
in current and future climate conditions. The methodology is tools (Jentsch et al., 2008). The tool was developed to integrate
used having as case study an office building in Brisbane and the ‘morphing methodology’ and was used as baseline to trans-
Canberra (Australia). The results demonstrate that the difference form CIBSE standard weather data files to take into consideration
in performance between the optimization of current and future global warming weather data (Gunay et al., 2013). The tool pre-
climate is moderate but can reach 6% in Canberra when cooling sented is aimed at the generation of TMY2/EPW files from the
is concerned. morphed data files and includes calculations for solar radiation,
It is concluded that for the case in Brisbane it is appropriate to air temperature, daylighting and humidity. A case study is also
design for future proofing while considering the current climate investigated, in particular to the potential impact of global warm-
conditions while in Canberra it would be advised to perform ing on future summer overheating hours in a naturally ventilated
an adaptive design by taking in consideration future climate building. The approach is based on the tool CCWeatherGen: Cli-
evolution. mate change Weather File Generator for the UK and includes only
In Nguyen et al. (2021) an adaptation and mitigation path- up to IPCC assessment report 3 data and has been a reference for
way is discussed by investigating multi-objective optimizations in the past years in the field.
building design for the climate of Hanoi (Vietnam). The method- In Shen et al. (2020) authors propose a framework for early de-
ology followed includes variants to a baseline building model sign stage of climate adaptive designs for multi-family buildings
and optimization of models performances under different climate under future climate scenarios. The aim is to generate
change scenarios and time frames. future weather data through the morphing method, integrate
The results reveal that a non-optimized building for future standard building simulation with adaptive comfort models and
climates will require roughly 7 to 12.3% increase in energy use for arrange with simplified building simulation alternative designs
heating and cooling together with a longer overheating period in in a framework suitable for the charrette early design stage. The
the future. paper shows that the methodology followed is clearly able to
Optimized designs instead clearly show significant reduction identify solutions sets being effective in the different climates
in energy uses and risk of overheating if compared to the baseline of Italy and Sweden, even though, although a step in the right
design. direction, some issues are for sure traced within the topic of
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the simplicity and easy replicability of the methodology within Turkey. In detail, the authors utilized an existing linear morphing
practitioners and stakeholders. methodology to generate future weather files for all 81 cities
In Troup and Fannon (2016) a comparison of two specific tools in Turkey. For each year and city, corresponding weather met-
available to assess the effect of global warming in buildings is pro- rics were calculated, and heating/cooling demand and PV energy
posed. The study uses Boston, Miami and San Francisco as diverse generation values were computed through building energy sim-
cities representing different climate challenges and to investigate ulations. Obtained data were used to develop two multivariate
regional effects on long term energy use in future scenarios. regression models to predict: (i) future weather metrics and
Energy simulation results obtained from ‘‘morphed’’ weather data (ii) future energy demand and generation.
files, current climate forecasts and adjusted emissions scenarios Pajek et al. (2022) investigated the relevance of some pas-
are compared and discussed to evaluate the impact of global sive design measures for heating and cooling energy use of
warming on building energy consumption. The ‘‘CCWeatherGen: single-family detached buildings at five European locations un-
Climate change Weather File Generator for the UK | Sustainable der current and three future periods. To this end, future pro-
Energy Research Group’’ is used together with the Weathershift jected weather files were generated using the climate morphing
tool. Very significant results are found among the results of the technique implemented in the CCWorldWeatherGen. The energy
two tools. Authors conclude that impacts on a wrong assumption models of a typical single-family residential building with nu-
on the tool used can have extreme consequences on the results merous combinations of passive design measures were defined
and thus there is a strong need to understand the elements be- and simulated using EnergyPlus, considering the current and
hind future climate evaluations and weather file morphing. Of the projected climate. Finally, a multiple linear regression analysis
two tools investigated, Weathershift is a web page commercial was performed to rank the studied passive design measures
service which implements generation of weather data files for according to their relevance regarding the building’s energy need
sale purposes, implementing assessment report 5 calculations for heating and cooling under the current and projected future
based on existing weather data files. climate.
In Van Schijndel (2017), a tool is described based on the
determination of climate change effects on the performances of 1.3. Objectives of the study
buildings and uses standard. No advancements per se in terms of
Within the existing literature there is a wide interest on the
modelling efforts of climate change are performed since climate
topic of the determination of the climate change influence on
data are input from another research but the tool allows for a
the energy performances of buildings. However, there is a very
simple first insight into the performance of Heating, Ventilation
limited availability of scientifically solid tools to be used easily
and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems in future climates.
and free of charge to potentially influence the outcomes of the
In Jentsch et al. (2008) a set of weather data files are developed
early design process through evaluation of climate change. The
through the use of the morphing methodology, using as baseline
need for this kind of simulation tools is substantial within the
the CIBSE Test reference years. The paper develops sensitivity
building simulation community as it is paramount to being able
analyses on a range of cases. Simulations with TRNSYS coupled
to perform sensitivity analyses on the potential future evolution
with TRNFLOW were performed for a specific case study at the
of climate to assess the reliability of any design choices. It is
University of Southampton. The building is unshaded and placed
a knowledge gap for both research applications as well as for
on a high point of the campus. Simulation are run by comparing
practitioners.
current weather data files with morphed ones and deviations are
Thus, the study aims at the development of a specific building
explained and analysed.
simulation tool aimed at contributing to the covering to the
The paper, although developed several years ago, shows one research gap previously highlighted.
of the very first examples of tools used for the generation of The paper is based upon the creation of a tool for use within
future climate change data for use within building simulation the building energy simulation practitioners to investigate the
application. effect of climate change in the early design stage. The tool is de-
Zhai and Helman (2019) analysed the potential influence of veloped in MATLAB environment, with a simple graphical user in-
23 climate models for total of 56 model scenarios approved from terface to make it easy and simple to use also to non-programmers
the IPCC on building energy. The case study is the campus of the and can be used with no command-line knowledge.
University of Michigan that consists of 75 buildings. In detail, the The tool uses a top-down approach that is based on the use
authors identified four representative climate and created 12 fu- of current weather data and monthly provisional values for cli-
ture weather files starting from them. Using a probabilistic based mate change. Stochastic and bottom-up approaches might allow
stochastic deterministic coupled method, the authors estimated further investigation within the extreme climate change events;
the energy consumption of 5 representative buildings and simu- however the approach used is considered fitting for utilization
lated them on EnergyPlus to estimate the implications of climate within the early-design scope using downscaled IPCC data.
change on energy consumption. The 12 climate projected weather Users are required to input a weather data file, either select
files were utilized for each of the 5 representative buildings. an existing Energy Plus building model between those available
Wang et al. (2017) investigated the impacts of climate change in the library or provide their own and will have the possibility to
on annual energy requirement of an office building located in run directly in the tool Energy Plus simulations with ‘‘morphed’’
five different cities in United States. The authors used two GCM future weather data file and include as well wide parametric
climate change models (HadCM3 and CESM1) and considered analyses on the parameters of choice.
the representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, RCP4.5, and The tool implements the possibility of either using a specific
RCP8.5, which represents low greenhouse gas emission, inter- user-generated energy plus building model or the 90.1 ASHRAE
mediate emission and high emission based on IPCC AR5. Energy standard buildings (ANSI, 2019), in case a quick assessment of
simulation tool EnergyPlus was used to simulate future climate similar buildings is required and offers the possibility to imple-
conditions and mitigation measures for five U.S. cities. ment Assessment report 5 calculations in a very simple and fast
Tamer et al. (2022) presented a methodological framework for approach. A case study is developed for illustrating the potential
energy demand and photovoltaic generation predictions consid- of the tool: very different weather data files (Palermo and Copen-
ering the climate change impacts through multivariate regression hagen) were chosen and one typical ASHRAE building model is
models. The case study was a hypothetical office building in chosen to have a meaningful example.
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Table 1
Main building features.
Net conditioned floor area [m2 ] Number of floors WWR [%] Number of thermal zones
High-rise apartment 7059.9 10 30 80
Mid-rise apartment 2824 4 20 33
Hospital 22 436.2 5 16 162
Large hotel 11 345.3 6 30.2 195
Small hotel 3725.1 4 10.9 54
Large office 46 320.4 12 37.5 74
Medium office 4982.2 3 33 18
Small office 511.16 1 22.2 6
Outpatient HealthCare 3804 3 19.9 118
Fast food restaurant 232.3 1 14 2
Sit-down restaurant 511.2 1 17.1 2
Standalone retail 2294 1 7.1 5
Strip mall retail 2090.3 1 10.5 10
Primary school 6871 1 35 25
Secondary school 19 592 2 33 46
Warehouse 4835.1 1 0.7 3

2. Methodology Table 2
Features of the buildings’ envelope.

2.1. Overview Uvalue [W/(m2 K)] Window SHGC

External wall Roof Window
The proposed tool tries to address the need of hourly future High-rise apartment 0.36 0.18 2.37 0.40
weather data that are the key point for the energy demand Mid-rise apartment 0.36 0.18 2.37 0.40
prediction under climate change by taking advantage of building Hospital 0.59 0.18 2.37 0.40
Large hotel 0.59 0.18 2.37 0.40
energy simulation. Small hotel 0.36 0.18 2.37 0.40
First of all, it can be used to generate future local hourly Large office 0.59 0.30 2.37 0.40
weather data for three future time slices up to 2090 using RCP Medium office 0.36 0.18 2.37 0.40
emission scenarios developed in the last assessment report on Small office 0.36 0.15 2.37 0.40
climate change (IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)) presented Outpatient HealthCare 0.36 0.18 2.37 0.40
Fast food restaurant 0.36 0.15 2.37 0.40
by the IPCC AR5. The CESM1(CAM5) General Circulation Mod- Sit-down restaurant 0.36 0.15 2.37 0.40
eldata were used as input to the morphing method (Belcher Standalone retail 0.36 0.15 2.37 0.40
et al., 2005) to generate future hourly weather files. In detail, Strip mall retail 0.36 0.18 2.37 0.40
the CESM1(CAM5) is one of the GCMs produced by the World Primary school 0.36 0.18 2.37 0.40
Climate Research Programme’s in the context of Fifth Coupled Secondary school 0.36 0.18 2.37 0.40
Warehouse 0.34 0.21 2.37 0.40
Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) (Taylor et al., 2012) and
used in IPCC AR5 (Allen et al., 2014). It was identified as the GCM
to construct future climate weather because it was chosen as the
most suitable in Cellura et al. (2018b), where a validation of 24 and reasonable data for practitioners willing to investigate the
GCM data for building simulation purposes was carried out. performances of similar constructions.
In addition, the tool allows to investigate the effects of cli- The main thermal and constructive features of the buildings
mate change for a specific site, in terms of heating and cooling are given in Table 1. The buildings cover several types, from
energy demands as a ‘stand-alone’ tool. It allows to use the small office buildings to large energy intensive buildings such as
future local hourly weather data, generated by the tool, to di- hospitals. The net conditioned floor area varies from 232.3 m2
rectly launch a non-steady state building energy simulation in (fast food restaurant) to 46,320.4 (large office), while the window
EnergyPlus environment and analyse the effects of climate change to wall ratio (WWR) varies form 0.7% (warehouse) to 37.5% (large
on 16 commercial reference buildings models compliant with the office), with a mean value equal to 20.5%.
ASHRAE Standard 90.1 (ASHRAE, 2016, 2019). The thermal properties of the building envelopes components
The tool has been developed in MATLAB environment for the selected building models are reported in Table 2. Roof U-
(The MathWorks, 2017). Moreover, in order to facilitate the user value varies between 0.15 and 0.30 W/(m2 K), while wall U-value
interaction with the tool, a graphical interface was developed in varies from 0.34 to 0.59 W/(m2 K).
MATLAB (Smith, 2006). Internal heat gains from occupants, equipment and lighting
The commercial reference buildings proposed by the ASHRAE contribute a significant proportion of the heat gains in a build-
Standard 90.1 (ASHRAE, 2019) were chosen to be used in this ing: reducing the heating energy demand and increasing the
study to assess the impact of global warming on the energy cooling energy demand. In the study, thermal internal loads are
performance of buildings. caused by lighting, occupants and both electric and gas equip-
In detail, the building models used in this study are compliant ment. Table 3 shows the internal loads assumed for each type
with ASHRAE 90.1-2016 standard (ASHRAE, 2016). These build- of building model. In detail, the lighting is between 9 W/m2
ing models, developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (Warehouse) and 20 W/m2 (Sit-down Restaurant), occupants is
(PNNL) under contract with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), between 2 m2 /Person (Warehouse) and 50 m2 /Person (Hospi-
includes 16 buildings of different types and dimensions (Fig. 1). tal), while electric equipment range from 2 W/m2 (Warehouse)
Detailed descriptions of the reference model development and to 195 W/m2 (Fast Food Restaurant). Finally, gas equipment
modelling strategies can be found in PNNL’s reports (Goel et al., were held against only for restaurants (Fast Food Restaurant:
2017; Bartlett et al., 2016). 396 W/m2 and Sit-down Restaurant: 177 W/m2 ).
As it implements a very common standard and benchmark Although natural ventilation is a cooling technique effective in
available worldwide in the ASHRAE 90.1 building reference mod- achieving low energy requirements in current (41–42) and future
els, the tool can be very practical and efficient in giving quick buildings (43–44), the building models considered do not take
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Fig. 1. Commercial reference buildings proposed by the ASHRAE Standard 90.1 (Belcher et al., 2005).

Table 3
Internal heat gains (area weighted average values).
Lighting [W/m2 ] Electric equipment [W/m2 ] Gas equipment [W/m2 ] Occupants (m2 /person)
High-rise apartment 14 9 – 32
Mid-rise apartment 14 11 – 33
Hospital 12 24 – 50
Large hotel 11 41 – 31
Small hotel 11 30 – 16
Large office 11 18 – 18
Medium office 11 8 – 19
Small office 11 7 – 17
Outpatient HealthCare 12 32 – 6
Fast food restaurant 18 195 396 10
Sit-down restaurant 20 157 177 6
Standalone retail 17 5 – 6
Strip mall retail 18 4 – 12
Primary school 13 52 – 4
Secondary school 12 32 – 3
Warehouse 9 2 – 2

into account any natural ventilation strategy. This is due to the model, the tool can be used to investigate the effects of natural
fact that the tool’s goal is to understand building heating and ventilation strategies and other improvement interventions on
cooling variation trends under the effects of climate change with- the future performance of buildings.
out considering improvement strategies or solutions. However, Finally, to cover the heating and cooling demand an ideal
since it is also possible to supply the tool with the user’s own loads air systems using 20 ◦ C and 26 ◦ C as heating and cooling
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Table 4
Methodology used for each modified climate variable.
Climate variable Unit Morphing operation
◦
Dry bulb temperature C Combination of a shift and a stretch operation
Relative humidity % Shift operation
◦
Dew point temperature C Calculated based on morphed dry bulb temperature and morphed relative humidity using
psychometrics formulae
Atmospheric pressure Pa Shift operation
Global horizontal radiation Wh/m2 Stretch operation
Direct normal radiation Wh/m2 Calculated based on global horizontal radiation using solar geometry equations
Diffuse horizontal radiation Wh/m2 Stretch operation
Horizontal infrared radiation form the sky Wh/m2 Calculated from morphed values for cloud cover, dry bulb temperature and vapour pressure
Wind speed m/s Stretch operation
Total sky cover tenths of sky Stretch operation

set-points was used. This choice is based on the uncertainty in parameters are calculated: the monthly daily mean temperature
quantifying potential energy efficiency improvements in HVAC variation (∆tm ), the monthly daily maximum temperature vari-
systems up to the next century and to be able to perform a solid ation (∆tmax,m ) and the monthly daily minimum temperature
comparison between all results in all scenarios. variation (∆t min,m ).
Using ∆tmax,m and ∆t min,m , the scaling factor for the dry-bulb
3. The morphing method temperature (α tm ) is calculated through the following equation,
by using monthly mean values from both the current and future
As already mentioned the paper implements the classic for- data as in Eq. (4):
mulation of the ‘morphing’ approach (Tamer et al., 2022). The ∆tmax,m − ∆tmin,m
method is developed through the manipulation of existing αtrm = (4)
t̄0max,m − t̄0min,m
weather data through physical parameters and by considering
their variability on a monthly level while deriving them directly where t0max,m and t0min,m are the monthly mean of the cur-
from IPCC RCP predictions. rent daily maximum temperature and the monthly mean of the
Through the application of monthly variation to the instanta- current minimum daily temperature, respectively (Cellura et al.,
neous values from standard weather data file an hourly dataset 2018c).
is generated from monthly data. All variables considered (xo ) of Thus, when the previous parameters have been calculated
the existing weather data is manipulated by a ‘‘shift’’, a ‘‘stretch’’ it is possible to determine the future hourly variable dry bulb
or a combination of both. temperature through the following Eq. (5):
The ‘‘shifting’’ operation is usually used if an absolute monthly
t = t0 + ∆tm + αrm (t0 − ∆t0,m ) (5)
variation to the mean is traceable in the future climate data.
Shifting raises or reduces all values of the time series by a specific where t0 is the present hourly dry-bulb temperature and ∆t0,m is
value, on a monthly base. the monthly mean temperature variation in the current climate
As an example, the future hourly atmospheric pressure (p) is for the month m.
traceable from the current hourly value of atmospheric pressure
(p0 ) and from the monthly increment in atmospheric pressure 4. Description of the main features of the tool
(∆pm ), as in Eq. (1):

p = p0 + ∆pm (1) The description of the tool working routine is reported in

Fig. 2. As a first step, the tool imports, from a hourly weather file
where the subscript ‘‘0’’ refers to current weather data files, ‘‘m’’ for the current situation, all the climate variables that will be used
refers to monthly data, while the absence of subscripts refers to as a basis for the morphing method. Furthermore, it imports from
future data. the input weather file all the geographic information, such as
The operation of ‘‘stretching’’ is instead used to proportionally latitude, longitude and time zone, which are used in subsequent
perform variations in climate parameters through the use of calculations
scaling factors, as in the case of fractional monthly change. After receiving as input the emission scenario data and the
For example, the global horizontal radiation (r), can be scaled future projections, the tool extracts from its internal database
through an increase for monthly average solar shortwave flux the data on future projections of the climate variables. The tool’s
received at the surface (∆rm ). A scaling factor for the month database contains data in NetCDF extension (Network Common
m (αrm ) is derived from the absolute variation (∆rm ) and the Data Form, .nc) and it consists of data from the CESM1(CAM5)
monthly mean (r̄0m ) from the baseline climate as in the Eq. (2): GCM. In detail, the database contains the monthly future projec-
∆rm tions of the following climate variables: global solar irradiation
αrm = 1 + (2) on horizontal, total cloud cover fraction, daily mean tempera-
r̄0 m
ture, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature,
This scaling factor is then multiplied to all m months in the data relative humidity, mean sea level pressure and wind speed. In
series through Eq. (3): the next step, through a bilinear interpolation, the latitude and
longitude are used to find and extract the future climatic forecasts
r = αrm r0 (3)
necessary for the morphing method from the database. Therefore,
where r0 is the hourly current global horizontal radiation, r is the using the hourly weather file for the current situation and the
global horizontal radiation. data on monthly future projections extracted from the database,
Lastly, it is not uncommon to perform simultaneously both the tool will generate a future hourly weather file, using the
the techniques, especially for climatic variables such as dry-bulb morphing method previously described. In detail, Table 4 shows
temperature, to model modifications in both the daily mean and the methodology applied to each climate variables contained in
the peak daily values. For the dry-bulb temperature the following the weather file.
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Fig. 2. The tool methodological framework.

Once the climate file has been created, it can be directly used radiation). In addition this can be further customized by
to investigate the effects of climate change on the building per- choosing a specific plot start and end date.
formance using some reference building models contained within – Section 4: ‘‘Energy Plus simulation parameters’’. In this
the tool and described previously. In detail, the tool performs section the future local hourly weather data created in
two simulations at once – one with the current weather data Section 2 can be used to investigate results calculated for the
file and one with the morphed future one – and shows a visual commercial reference buildings proposed by the ASHRAE
comparison of the results among the two alternatives. The tool Standard 90.1. In detail, 16 building models compliant with
is not equipped with its own building simulation engine, but it those proposed by ASHRAE Standard 90.1 are available in
implements solid calculations through the connection to Energy the library in Energy Plus environment. A drop-down menu
Plus. allows to choose the model to be investigate among those
Graphically the tool can be divided into 6 sections, as shown shown in Fig. 1. Moreover, it is possible to supply the tool
in Fig. 3: with the user’s own model created in Energy Plus environ-
ment. In detail, in order to use his own model instead of the
– Section 1: ‘‘Current Climate weather files selection’’. Using
commercial reference buildings proposed by the ASHRAE
the keys ‘‘Browse’’ and ‘‘Load’’, the user have to choose the
Standard 90.1, the user have to select the ‘‘Your Model’’
hourly weather data, in ‘‘.epw’’ format, to be used as input to
option from the drop-down menu and then choose an own
the morphing method. Once the hourly weather data for the
Energy Plus building model built in ‘‘.idf ’’ format. At the cur-
current climate situation are input to the tool, the following
information will be shown: rent state of the tool implementation, the user can choose
any building model built in the Energy Plus environment
◦ Location; which, however, meets both of the following conditions:
◦ Latitude;
◦ The model must be equipped with a zone ideal air
◦ Longitude;
system that meets heating and cooling loads through
◦ Altitude;
the use of the Energy Plus object ‘‘HVAC Template:
◦ Time Zone.
Zone: Ideal Loads Air System’’
– Section 2: ‘‘Morphing method parameters’’. This stage re- ◦ The Energy Plus object ‘‘Output Variable’’ must con-
quires some input to determine the future hourly weather tain only the following variables: ‘‘Zone Ideal Loads:
file, in ‘‘epw’’ format, to be generated. In particular, one of Zone Sensible Heating Energy’’ and ‘‘Zone Ideal Loads:
the four emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and Zone Sensible Cooling Energy’’, using ‘‘TimeStep’’ as
RCP8.5) is chosen as well as one of the three future projec- reporting frequency option.
tions allowed (2035, 2065 and 2090). The ‘‘Calculate’’ button Once the building model is chosen, the following informa-
will proceed to create the future hourly weather file, while tion will be shown in the tool:
it is also possible to easily save the generated weather data
file onto any folder on the hard drive. ◦ a figure showing the geometry of the model;
– Section 3: ‘‘Morphing method results viewer’’. In this sec- ◦ Conditioned floor area [m2 ];
tion the main results on the future climate projections are ◦ Building WWR [%];
showed. In particular, the comparison between the current ◦ Roof U value [W/m2 K];
climate and the future climate is presented. A drop-down ◦ External wall U value [W/m2 K];
menu allows to choose the variable to analyse (dry bulb ◦ Window U value [W/m2 K];
temperature, relative humidity and global horizontal solar ◦ Window solar heat gain coefficient (SHGC).
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Fig. 3. Climate change tool.

– Section 5: ‘‘Building simulation results viewer’’. This the maximum difference in the monthly average being close to
section reports the simulation results, in terms of heating 5 ◦ C.
energy demand and cooling energy demand (kWh/m2 ). In Test simulations for the tool are run for the ‘‘small office’’
particular, a graph box shows the comparison between ASHRAE building model for the two locations of Palermo and
the current and the future situation. A drop-down menu Copenhagen on all the available future time slices. Figs. 4 and 5
allows to choose whether to compare the heating demand show two screenshots from the tool including energy simulation
or the cooling demand. Moreover, as for the morphing results for the two locations.
results section, it is also possible to widely customize the The tool shows on the bottom left a trend of one month of
comparison. temperature variation, either on the original climate and the new
A table box shows the following monthly data: future weather data file while on the right it compares ideal loads
for heating and cooling in both weather data files.
◦ current heating energy demand [kWh/m2 ];
Fig. 6 instead shows the aggregated results for the overall
◦ future heating energy demand [kWh/m2 ];
energy uses for heating and cooling within the current century.
◦ heating variation [%];
Heating for Copenhagen represents the predominant part of en-
◦ current cooling energy demand [kWh/m2 ];
ergy uses with more than 27 kWh/m2 which is reduced along the
◦ future cooling energy demand [kWh/m2 ]; decades by more than 25% in 2090 in RCP 8.5. In all cases and in
◦ cooling variation [%]. all scenarios heating is reduced by roughly 20%.
The tool was used in an application to the cities of Palermo Consistent findings are traced also within the cooling energy
(Italy) and Copenhagen (Denmark), for the purposes of investigat- demand which tends to increase substantially from the current
ing the impacts of climate change to the energy uses for heating situation up to 2090, where it would reach a value four times
and cooling within some selected buildings among those available higher.
in the database, thus, exploring the potential of the approach. The tool also gives hourly outputs for all variables of interest:
an example week comparison for February is shown in Fig. 7 for
5. Results Copenhagen.
Similar trends are available for Palermo (Fig. 8) with regards to
The results of the paper will now be briefly discussed. The tool climate change impact on the results, whereas clearly the balance
was used within the two sites of Palermo and Copenhagen, by between heating and cooling is significantly reversed: cooling
testing several different climate weather data, for all time slices increases from nearly 15 kWh/m2 to more than 20 kWh/m2 , while
available within the database. The results are all acquired and the already very limited heating (lower than 6 kWh/m2 in the
generated through the tool but some of them are re-arranged and next decades is always reduced by more than 30%. A sample of
post-processed into graphs and aggregated tables. dynamic outputs from the tool calculations is also given in Fig. 9.
All climatic variables of interested influenced in the morph-
ing methodology, are arranged and modelled by the tool. As an 6. Discussion
example, and for brevity an example of output for air dry bulb
temperature is following below in the following Tables 5 and 6, The tool proposed in the paper was described and was proven
respectively reporting average air monthly temperature variation to be able to investigate the performances of existing and new
for the two sites of Palermo and Copenhagen. buildings throughout future decades easily and with simplicity.
While the difference in absolute values for air temperatures Its integration with one among the most used and trusted build-
among the two sites is obvious since they refer to very different ing simulation tools allows for solid results; the implementation
climate zones, it is worth mentioning that in both cases differ- of IPCC assessment report data allows for more up-to-date re-
ences vary very significantly among the current scenario and all sults if compared to other similar approaches in literature. Also
the climate change ones in the various time slices investigated, the integration with existing ASHRAE models allows for a more
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Fig. 4. Climate change tool – Copenhagen, heating season (Scenario RCP 8.5 – year 2090).

Fig. 5. Climate change tool – Palermo, cooling season (Scenario RCP 2.6 – year 2090).

Fig. 6. Heating and cooling energy demand (Copenhagen).

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Table 5
Average monthly air temperature [◦ C] for Palermo.
Current RCP2.6 RCP2.6 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP4.5 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP6.0 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP8.5 RCP8.5
2035 2065 2090 2035 2065 2090 2035 2065 2090 2035 2065 2090
Jan 12.68 13.98 14.02 14.25 13.94 14.61 14.87 13.71 14.78 15.22 13.94 15.52 16.08
Feb 11.85 13.52 13.50 13.59 13.50 13.94 14.65 13.11 14.59 14.62 13.55 15.05 15.78
Mar 13.84 15.46 15.76 15.51 15.52 16.04 16.39 15.24 16.52 16.81 15.74 17.10 17.88
Apr 15.66 17.18 17.52 17.55 17.31 17.86 18.12 16.95 18.02 18.49 17.47 18.76 19.43
May 19.15 20.55 20.76 21.18 20.81 21.31 21.72 20.37 21.45 22.17 21.11 22.75 23.70
Jun 22.80 24.54 24.96 25.00 24.65 25.35 25.65 24.38 25.47 26.58 25.20 26.84 27.83
Jul 25.47 27.32 27.84 27.60 27.69 28.36 28.24 26.93 27.98 29.22 27.73 29.53 30.71
Aug 27.04 28.77 29.05 28.81 29.05 29.64 29.92 28.39 29.55 30.54 29.24 31.17 32.18
Sep 24.08 25.81 26.16 25.80 25.89 26.66 27.22 25.50 26.66 27.79 26.13 28.37 29.28
Oct 21.60 23.33 23.46 23.44 23.05 23.79 24.61 23.10 24.13 24.73 23.48 25.61 26.18
Nov 17.22 18.88 18.78 18.61 18.43 19.22 19.39 18.25 19.10 20.21 18.98 20.71 20.99
Dec 13.89 15.27 16.15 15.84 15.67 16.34 16.41 15.16 16.07 17.20 15.56 17.51 17.74
Year 18.82 20.43 20.71 20.64 20.50 21.14 21.48 20.13 21.23 22.01 20.72 22.46 23.19

Table 6
Average monthly air temperature [◦ C] for Copenhagen.
Current RCP2.6 RCP2.6 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP4.5 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP6.0 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP8.5 RCP8.5
2035 2065 2090 2035 2065 2090 2035 2065 2090 2035 2065 2090
Jan 1.48 2.98 2.85 2.80 2.73 3.66 4.07 2.02 3.09 3.65 2.82 4.33 4.95
Feb 0.18 1.79 0.99 1.99 1.40 1.82 1.90 0.88 2.90 2.08 2.10 3.49 3.37
Mar 2.95 4.41 4.16 4.84 4.55 5.31 5.30 4.55 5.11 5.65 4.57 6.15 6.02
Apr 6.24 7.32 8.00 8.46 7.77 8.37 8.83 7.32 8.45 8.95 8.10 9.06 9.56
May 11.45 12.04 12.54 12.41 12.40 13.01 13.55 11.62 12.85 14.12 13.03 14.03 14.76
Jun 14.67 16.75 16.99 16.43 15.99 17.83 18.11 15.26 17.06 18.86 16.45 18.60 19.62
Jul 16.58 18.41 18.82 18.48 18.14 19.71 19.40 17.53 18.93 20.53 18.73 20.42 21.87
Aug 16.95 18.38 18.65 18.91 18.53 19.92 19.61 17.62 19.52 21.16 19.06 21.33 22.64
Sep 12.30 14.22 14.19 14.01 14.26 14.90 15.22 13.65 14.82 15.59 14.61 16.40 17.16
Oct 9.69 11.31 10.83 11.34 11.18 11.39 12.05 11.15 11.80 12.19 11.13 12.95 13.48
Nov 5.12 6.62 6.84 6.55 6.81 7.19 7.25 6.43 7.04 8.01 7.38 8.05 8.40
Dec 1.60 2.95 2.59 3.09 2.63 4.16 3.20 2.57 3.57 4.01 2.70 4.04 4.98
Year 8.32 9.81 9.84 9.99 9.75 10.66 10.76 9.27 10.47 11.29 10.10 11.62 12.29

The results for the case study highlight a lower heating energy
use the higher the time span considered. It also decreases with
the RCP scenarios considered being the lowest with RCP8.5.
Symmetrical results are found for cooling which is always
higher in both case studies the higher the time-span considered
and grows considerably with the RCP scenarios investigated.
The results have highlighted a clear tendency of the next
century towards the increase of energy use for air conditioning
that is available in both the two locations examined: this for sure
will impact the way both new constructions and existing ones
may be resilient towards climate change and will require the
use of suitable tools for practitioners and designers to explore its
implications on the built environment.
Also the significant shift towards cooling would have con-
sequences: either with the need for installation of a significant
amount of additional conditioning power in countries that at the
moment have not significant cooling requirements (i.e. in the case
of Copenhagen) or for a large increase in peak power require-
Fig. 7. Dynamic results output example: Heating (Copenhagen). ments for traditionally hot countries (i.e. in the case of Palermo).
Also issues with buildings too airtight may arise with significant
concerns for air quality coupled with a general increase in cooling
requirements.
structured approach, allowing for benchmarking of the results
achieved with the model used within the tool.
The tool implemented a state of the art methodology based on 7. Conclusions
the morphing of existing weather data files: the approach allows
for simple integration with the existing state of the art energy As new constructions built today are expected to fully with-
modelling and simulation tools and has therefore potential for stand the effects of climate change in the next decades, as such
covering a specific gap within practitioners and researchers. building design is currently in need to plan accordingly the design
The tool has an intrinsic level of reliability: it is based on of buildings by including in the design process specific efforts to
Energy plus for the thermal building simulation engine, it uses the modelling and simulation of the effects of climate change to
directly Ashrae 90.1 building models, works with Energy plus the building sector.
weather data files and implements the well-established morphing The current state of building energy simulation practice is cur-
method for calculating provisional values for future climate data rently characterized by a lack of specific simplified tools and ap-
files based on IPCC future climate data. proaches that may help, research, practitioners and stakeholders
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Fig. 8. Heating and cooling energy demand (Palermo).

– to perform quick estimations on the potential impact of

climate change;
• the availability of testing ad hoc energy plus models defined
by the users, potentially for more advanced and research
applications.
The main limitation of the approach lies in the uncertainty of
the climate evolution in the next decades, which is mirrored in
the contents of the paper in the implementation of the different
RCP scenarios. A wide range of parametric analyses should be
investigated when approaching future climate models in building
performance assessment studies.
The tool shares its scope with the current efforts developed
by the United Nations — Sustainable Development Solutions
Network with the joint work on the sustainable development
goals, in particular with the joint efforts towards affordable and
clean energy, climate action, sustainable cities and communities.
The tool may also have applications within the scaling up of
the single building dimension towards the district perspective
Fig. 9. Dynamic results output example: Cooling (Palermo). and the one of positive energy districts, as the larger perspective
may allow for more insight on the performances of the whole
neighbourhood, thus allowing to go beyond the single units’
in having a quick grasp on how the evolution of global warming limits and issues. Further potential applications lie in the research
due to climate change will induce changes in the building energy of building resilience towards climate change as well as in the
performances of the current century. practitioner field to perform climate proofed building designs.
As such, this limit generates a specific potential lack of re- The research proposed goes also in the direction of most
silience in the building sector that will have severe repercussions research at the EU level, whereas the interest towards climate
in the estimates of energy use in the whole sector — especially neutral and innovative cities as well as for climate resilient inno-
so if the most needed decarbonization of the economy and the vation is considered a top priority in conjunction with the need to
development of green and decarbonized districts (Fichera et al., build and renovate in an efficient way, within the new European
2020b,a, 2017)will not be fully pursued in the current century. Green Deal.
In this framework, the tool proposed is a significant contribu- The tool implements solid calculations through the connection
tion to the state of the art as it allows for the investigation of to the Energy plus simulation routine embedded in it and can
climate change resilience of buildings through the combined use allow a wide degree of flexibility through the use of several
of:
customization options both in simulation features as well as in
• a very easy, simple and immediate GUI, essential to guar- the visualization of the results.
antee its widest distribution and potential impact among Moreover, the use of a building models’ library including exist-
practitioners; ing benchmarks from ASHRAE can help in the applicability of the
• scientific depth of the methodological approach, as all tools tool into different situations, including compliance calculations or
used and connected are fully validated – as in the case of pre-design analyses; while it may also find suitable use for fast
Energy Plus – or established in the field of climate change and accurate parametric and scenario analysis within the climate
weather data assessment — in the case of the morphing change sector as well as being a basis for comparison for similar
methodology; analyses.
• the possibility of easily exporting the data generated and The results and the case study analysis show the ability of
post-process them, while guaranteeing the possibility for the approach to investigate at a glance either dynamic (through
easy in-tool visualization and comparison; fully customizable tabs) building simulation data and aggregated
• the possibility of using already developed realistic and stan- results (through the detailed monthly tables) reported per all
dardized building models – as in ASHRAE 90.1 guidelines variables of interest. The tools is an efficient instrument to let
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F. Guarino, G. Tumminia, S. Longo et al. Energy Reports 8 (2022) 10881–10894

practitioners approach the modelling of global warming effects Farah, S., Whaley, D., Saman, W., Bol, J., 2019. Integrating climate change into
within the building sector, while going beyond the traditional meteorological weather data for building energy simulation. Energy Build.
183, 749–760. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2018.11.045.
barriers of time consuming efforts, complex applications and
Fichera, A., Frasca, M., Volpe, R., 2017. The centralized energy supply in a
limited knowledge and know-how available on the topic. network of distributed energy systems: A cost-based mathematical ap-
The tool is free of charge and, although not yet published on proach. Int. J. Heat. Technol. 35, S191–S195. http://dx.doi.org/10.18280/ijht.
a webpage online, authors are available to share it with anyone 35Sp0127.
willing to test it. Fichera, A., Marrasso, E., Sasso, M., Volpe, R., 2020a. Energy, environmental and
economic performance of an Urban community hybrid distributed energy
system. Energies 13, http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13102545.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Fichera, A., Pluchino, A., Volpe, R., 2020b. From self-consumption to decentralized
distribution among prosumers: A model including technological, operational
Francesco Guarino: Conceptualization, Data curation, For- and spatial issues. Energy Convers. Manage. 217, 112932. http://dx.doi.org/
mal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Supervision, Writing – 10.1016/j.enconman.2020.112932.
original draft, Writing – review & editing. Giovanni Tumminia: Ghoniem, A.F., 2011. Needs, resources and climate change: Clean and efficient
Resources, Software, Data curation, Methodology, Visualization, conversion technologies. Prog. Energy Combust. Sci. 37, 15–51. http://dx.doi.
org/10.1016/j.pecs.2010.02.006.
Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing. Sonia Longo:
Goel, S., Rosenberg, M.I., Eley, C., 2017. ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2016
Resources, Methodology, Conceptualization, Data curation, For- Performance Rating Method Reference Manual. Pacific Northwest National
mal analysis. Maurizio Cellura: Supervision, Conceptualization, Lab.(PNNL), Richland, WA (United States).
Methodology, Investigation, Resources. Maria Anna Cusenza: Guarino, F., Cassarà, P., Longo, S., et al., 2015. Load match optimisation of a
Visualization, Resources, Software. residential building case study: A cross-entropy based electricity storage siz-
ing algorithm. Appl. Energy 154, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.
04.116.
Declaration of competing interest
Gunay, H.B., O’Brien, W., Beausoleil-Morrison, I., 2013. A critical review of obser-
vation studies, modeling, and simulation of adaptive occupant behaviors in
The authors declare that they have no known competing finan- offices. Build Environ. 70, 31–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2013.
cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared 07.020.
to influence the work reported in this paper. Hosseini, M., Bigtashi, A., Lee, B., 2021. Generating future weather files under
climate change scenarios to support building energy simulation – A machine
learning approach. Energy Build. 230, 110543. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.
Data availability enbuild.2020.110543.
Jentsch, M.F., Bahaj, A.S., James, P.A.B., 2008. Climate change future proofing of
Data will be made available on request. buildings—Generation and assessment of building simulation weather files.
Energy Build. 40, 2148–2168. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2008.06.005.
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