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Chapter 6

DRrA Module-II: 07 Hours

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 Probability I

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Module-II: 07 Hours
Basics of Probability, Different types of probability, Probability rules, Conditional
probability, Product rule, Bayes’ Rule.,
Topic to be covered in this slide are as follows:
1

3
Random experiment
Sample space and event DRrA
classical definition of probability
D
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 Formulation with Numerical I

Definition 128 (Sample Space)

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is a list of all possible outcomes of the experiment. The outcomes must be mutually
exclusive and exhaustive. Mutually exclusive means they are distinct and
non-overlapping. Exhaustive means complete.
for example : Sample space of all possible outcomes when two dice are tossed.
(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5) (1,6)
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)

DRrA
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)

Definition 129 (Event)

is a subset of the sample space. An event can be classified as a simple event or
D
compound event.

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 Formulation with Numerical II

Definition 130 (Probability of an event )

The theoretical probability of an event is defined as the number of ways the event can

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occur divided by the number of events of the sample space. Using mathematical
notation, we have
P(E) = n(E)
n(S)
n(E) is the number of ways the event
can occur and n(S) represents the total number of events in the sample space.

Example 131
DRrA
Two dice are tossed. The probability that the total score is a prime number is:
Solution: Sample space of all possible outcomes when two dice are tossed.
(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5) (1,6)
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
D
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)
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 Formulation with Numerical III

Therefore total number of sample = n(S) = 36

event occur when the sum is prime i.e., 2

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Since out of the above 36 possibilities, only one favourable to this event i.e., (1,1)

aFft
1
Therefore P(E1 ) = 36
Similarly, event occur when the sum is prime i.e., 3
Since out of the above 36 possibilities, only two favourable to this event i.e., (1,2),(2,1)
2
Therefore P(E2 ) = 36
Similarly, event occur when the sum is prime i.e., 5

(3,2),(4,1)
Therefore P(E3 ) = 36 4 DRrA
Since out of the above 36 possibilities, only four favourable to this event i.e., (1,4),(2,3),

Similarly, event occur when the sum is prime i.e., 7

Since out of the above 36 possibilities, only six favourable to this event i.e., (1,6), (2,5),
(3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)
6
Therefore P(E4 ) = 36
D
Similarly, event occur when the sum is prime i.e., 11
Since out of the above 36 possibilities, only two favourable to this event i.e., (5,6),(6,5)
2
Therefore P(E5 ) = 36

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 Formulation with Numerical IV

Hence the final probability to getting sum is prime is P(E1 )+P(E2 )+P(E3 ) +P(E4 )+
1 2 4 6 2
P(E5 ) = 36 + 36 + 36 + 36 + 36 = 15

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36

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Example 132
Two dice are thrown together. What is the probability that the number obtained on
one of the dice is multiple of number obtained on the other dice?
Solution: Sample space of all possible outcomes when two dice are tossed.

DRrA
(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5) (1,6)
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)
Therefore total number of sample = n(S) = 36
event occur when the the number is 1 in one dice i.e.,
D
Since out of the above 36 possibilities, only six favourable to this event i.e., (1,1),(1,2),
(1,3),(1,4), (1,5), (1,6)

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 Formulation with Numerical V

6
Therefore P(E1 ) = 36

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Similarly, event occur when the the number is 2 in one dice i.e.,

aFft
Since out of the above 36 possibilities, only four favourable to this event i.e., (2,1),
(2,2), (2,4), (2,6)
4
Therefore P(E2 ) = 36
Similarly, event occur when the the number is 3 in one dice i.e.,
Since out of the above 36 possibilities, only three favourable to this event i.e., (3,1),
(3,3), (3,6)
Therefore P(E3 ) = 363

DRrA
Similarly, event occur when the the number is 4 in one dice i.e.,
Since out of the above 36 possibilities, only three favourable to this event i.e., (4,1),
(4,2), (4,4)
Therefore P(E4 ) = 363

Similarly, event occur when the the number is 5 in one dice i.e.,
Since out of the above 36 possibilities, only two favourable to this event i.e., (5,1),(5,5)
D
2
Therefore P(E5 ) = 36
Similarly, event occur when the the number is 6 in one dice i.e.,

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 Formulation with Numerical VI

Since out of the above 36 possibilities, only four favourable to this event i.e., (6,1),

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(6,2), (6,3), (6,6)

aFft
4
Therefore P(E5 ) = 36
Hence the final probability to getting sum is prime is P(E1 )+P(E2 )+P(E3 ) +P(E4 )+
6 4 3 3 2 4
P(E5 ) = 36 + 36 + 36 + 36 + 36 + 36 = 22
36

Example 133
The blood groups of 200 people is distributed as follows: 50 have type A blood, 65

type?
DRrA
have B blood type, 70 have O blood type and 15 have type AB blood. If a person from
this group is selected at random, what is the probability that this person has O blood

Solution: Number of people having O blood type = 70 = n(E)

Total number of people = n(S) = 200
As We know that,
P(E) = n(E)
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70 7
n(S) = 200 = 20
7
So probability of people having O blood is 20

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 Formulation with Numerical VII

Example 134

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A bag contains 7 red, 12 blue and 4 green balls. What is the probability that 3 balls

aFft
drawn are all blue?

DRrA
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 Formulation with Numerical VIII

Example 135

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A jar contains 3 red marbles, 7 green marbles and 10 white marbles. If a marble is

aFft
drawn from the jar at random, what is the probability that this marble is white?
Solution: Total number of marbles in a bag is 3 + 7 + 10 = 20 = n(S)
Total number of white marbles in a bag is = n(E) = 10
As We know that,
P(E) = n(E) 10
n(S) = 20 = 2
1

Example 136
DRrA
So probability of that this marble is white is 21

In a box, there are 8 red, 7 blue and 6 green balls. One ball is picked up randomly.
What is the probability that it is neither red nor green
Solution: Total number of marbles in a bag is 8 + 7 + 6 = 21 = n(S)
Let E = event that the ball drawn is neither red nor green = event that the ball drawn is
D
red.
n(E) = 7

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 Formulation with Numerical IX

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As We know that, P(E) = n(E) 7
n(S) = 21 = 3
1

DRrA
So probability of that the ball drawn is neither blue nor green is 3
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DRrA
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Chapter 7

DRrA Module-II: 07 Hours

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 Probability I

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Module-II: 07 Hours
Basics of Probability, Different types of probability, Probability rules, Conditional
probability, Product rule, Bayes’ Rule.,
Topic to be covered in this slide are as follows:
1

3
Random experiment
Sample space and event DRrA
classical definition of probability
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 Formulation with Numerical I

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Example 137

aFft
From a pack of 52 cards, two cards are drawn together at random. What is the
probability of both the cards being kings
Let S be the sample space. pack of 52 cards two cards are drawn
Hence, n(S) = 52 C2 = 52×51
1×2 = 1326

n(E) = 4 C2 = 1×2
P(E) = n(E) 6
=6
n(S) = 1326 = 221
1
DRrA
Let E = event of getting 2 kings out of 4.
4×3

So probability of getting two kings are:

Example 138
1
221

What is the chance of getting a king in a draw from a pack of 52 cards.

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 Formulation with Numerical II

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DRrA
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 Formulation with Numerical III

Example 139
A class has 12 boys and 4 girls. Suppose 3 students are selected at random from the

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class. Find the probability that all are boys.

aFft
DRrA
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 Formulation with Numerical IV

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Example 140

aFft
In a class, there are 15 boys and 10 girls. Three students are selected at random. The
probability that 1 girl and 2 boys are selected, is:
Solution: Let S be the sample space
Given Total numbers of Boys=15
Total number of girls =10

DRrA
total number of student in a class is =10+15=25
Then, n(S) = Number ways of selecting 3 students out of 25
Hence, n(S) = 25 C3 = 25×24×23
1×2×3 = 2300
E be the event of selecting 1 girl and 2 boys.
n(E) = 10 C1 × 15 C2 = 10 × 15×14
P(E) = n(E) 1050
1×2 = 1050

n(S) = 2300
21
So the probability that 1 girl and 2 boys are selected
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46

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 Formulation with Numerical V

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Example 141

aFft
A pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and 3 black pens. If 2 pens are drawn at random from
the pack, not replaced and then another pen is drawn. What is the probability of
drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen
Solution: Total blue pen=4
Total red pen= 2
total black pen= 3
DRrA
total pen in a bag = 2 + 3 + 4 = 9
4
probability of drawing 2 blue pen at a random is = 9 CC22 = 16
After this the pens are not replaced which reduce the number of pen in the bag to 7
3
So, the probability of drawing one black pen drawn at random out of 7 is 7 CC11 = 73
Therefore the probability of drawing two back and one black pen is = 16 × 37 = 14 1
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 Formulation with Numerical VI

Example 142
There is a bag full of coloured balls, red, blue, green and orange. Balls are picked out

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and replaced. John did this 1000 times and obtained the following results:
Number of blue balls picked out: 300
Number of red balls: 200
Number of green balls: 450
Number of orange balls: 50
1

2
DRrA
What is the probability of picking a green ball
If there are 100 balls in the bag, how many of them are likely to be green
Solution: a) ans: total number of balls in a bag=1000
Then, n(S) = 1000
E be the event of selecting 1 balls out of 450 green balls is
n(E) = 450 C1 = 450
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P(E) = n(E) 450
n(S) = 1000
9
So the probability of picking a green ball is 20

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 Formulation with Numerical VII

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b) ans: a bag contains 1000 balls in which 450 are green balls

aFft
450
then, if a bag contain 1 balls in which 1000 green balls
450×100
so, if bag contains 100 balls then , 1000 are green balls.
Therefore, If there are 100 balls in the bag, 45 of them are likely to be green balls.

Example 143

DRrA
Consider another example where a pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and 3 black pens. If a
pen is drawn at random from the pack, replaced and the process repeated 2 more
times. What is the probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen?
Solution: Here, total number of pens = 9 Probability of drawing 1 blue pen =
Probability of drawing another blue pen = 49
Probability of drawing 1 black pen = 39
4
9

Probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen = 94 × 49 × 39 = 729

48 16
= 243
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 Formulation with Numerical VIII

Example 144
In a box, there are 9 blue, 6 white and some black stones. A stone is randomly

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selected and the probability that the stone is black is 14 Find the total number of stones
in the box?
Solution: We know that, Total probability = 1
Given probability of black stones = 14
Probability of blue and white stones = 1 − 14 = 34

DRrA
But, given blue + white stones = 9 + 6 = 15
Hence, 0.75 holds total probability out of 15 stones
15
1 holds total probability out of 15 stones is : 0.75
Therefore, total number of stone is 20.
Example 145
= 20

Find the probability that a leap year has 53 Mondays.

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In a leap year (which consists of 366 days) there are 52 complete weeks (52×7 = 364)
and 2 days over. The following are the Possible combinations for these two ‘over’ days:

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 Formulation with Numerical IX

Sunday and Monday

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Monday and Tuesday

aFft
Tuesday and Wednesday
Wednesday and Thursday
Thursday and Friday
Friday and Saturday
Saturday and Sunday

’over" days must be Sunday.

DRrA
In order that it leap year selected at random should contain 53 Sundays, one of the two

Since out of the above 7 possibilities, 2 are favourable to this event,

Required probability = 27

Example 146 (Homework)

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Find the probability that a non-leap year has 53 Mondays.

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DRrA
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Chapter 8

DRrA Module-II: 07 Hours

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 Probability I

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Module-II: 07 Hours
Basics of Probability, Different types of probability, Probability rules, Conditional
probability, Product rule, Bayes’ Rule.,
Topic to be covered in this slide are as follows:
1

3
Random experiment
Sample space and event DRrA
classical definition of probability
D
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Some More Practice Problems I

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Definition 147 (Addition Theorem of Probability for Two Events)

aFft
Example 148
DRrA
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Some More Practice Problems II

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DRrA
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Some More Practice Problems III

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DRrA
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Some More Practice Problems IV

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Example 149
DRrA
Two cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability that
either both are black or both are queen?
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Solution: Let S be the sample space. pack of 52 cards two cards are drawn
Hence, n(S) = 52 C2 = 52×51
1×2 = 1326

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Some More Practice Problems V

Let E = =event of getting 2 card is black or 2 card is queens

Total number of black cards = 26

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Total number of queen cards = 4
Total number of cards which are both black and queen = 2
Hence, n(E)= number of ways of drawing 2 black from 26 or 2 queen from 4
n(E) = n(B) + n(Q) − N(B ∧ Q)
n(E) = 26 C2 + 4 C2 − 2 C2 = 325 + 6 − 1 = 330
P(E) = n(E) 330
n(S) = 1326 = 221
55

Example 150
DRrA 55
So probability of getting two kings are: 221

If two letters are taken at random from the word HOME, what is the probability that
none of the letters would be vowels?
Solution: Total number of letters in the word HOME is 4 and 2 letters are choosing.
D
Hence, total number of outcomes is given by
Hence, n(S) = 4 C2 = 4×3
1×2 = 6
O and E are vowels and H and M are consonants.

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Some More Practice Problems VI

Therefore, there are two letters which are not vowel.

So, favorable outcomes is given by

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n(E) = 2 C2 = 2×1
1×2 = 1

aFft
P(E) = n(E) 1
n(S) = 6
1
So the probability that none of the letters would be vowels: 6

Example 151

DRrA
A word consists of 9 letters; 5 consonants and 4 vowels. Three letters are chosen at
random. What is the probability that more than one vowel will be selected ?
Solution: 3 letters can be choosen out of 9 letters
Hence, total number of outcomes is given by
Hence, n(S) = 9 C3 = 9×8×7
1×2×3 = 84
E= more than one vowels need to choose.
E1 = the event when two vowels and 1 consonants choose
D
n(E1 ) = 4 C2 × 5 C1 = 6 × 5 = 30
E2 = the event when three vowels choose.
n(E2 ) = 4 C3 = 4

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Some More Practice Problems VII

the probability that more than one vowel will be selected

)+n(E2 )
P(E) = n(E1n(S) = 30+4

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84

aFft
17
So the probability that none of the letters would be vowels: 42

Example 152
A letter is taken out at random from “ASSISTANT" and another is taken out from
“STATISTICS". The probability that they are the same letter is

DRrA
Solution : Solution: 1 letters can be choosen out from “Assistant" and one from “Statis-
tics"
Hence, total number of outcomes is given by
Hence, n(S) = 9 C1 × 10 C1 = 9 × 10 = 90
ASSISTANT → AA SSS I TT N = total letters 9
STATISTICS → SSS TTT A II C = total letters 10
Here N and C are not common and same letters can be A, I, S, T. Therefore
D
Probability of choosing A
Total no. of “A" in Assistant is 2 and in “Statistics" is 1 choose one at a time
n(A) = 2 C1 × 1 C1 = 2

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Some More Practice Problems VIII

P(A) = n(A)
n(S) = 90
2

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similarly, Total no. of “I" in Assistant is 1 and in “Statistics is 2 choose one at a time

aFft
n(I) = 1 C1 × 2 C1 = 2
n(I) 2
P(I) = n(S) = 90
similarly, Total no. of “S" in Assistant is 3 and in “Statistics is 3 choose one at a time
n(S) = 3 C1 × 3 C1 = 9
P(S) = n(S) 9
n(S) = 90

n(T) = 2 C1 × 3 C1 = 6
P(T) = n(A)
n(S) = 90
6

P(A) + P(I) + P(S) + P(T) = 90

DRrA
similarly, Total no. of “T" in Assistant is 2 and in “Statistics is 3 choose one at a time

Hence, The probability that they are the same letter is

2 2
+ 90 + 909 6
+ 90 = 1990

Theorem 153
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Probability of the impossible event is zero

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Some More Practice Problems IX

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Proof.
Impossible event contains no sample point and
Hence the certain event S and the impossible event φ are mutually exclusive.
Hence, S ∪ φ = S
P (S ∪ φ) = P (S)
P (S) + P (φ) = P (S)
P (φ) = 0

Theorem 154
DRrA

Probability of the complementary event Ā of A is given by P Ā + P (A) = 1
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Some More Practice Problems X

Proof.
Ā of A are the disjoint events

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Moreover,
A ∪ Ā = S

aFft
P A ∪ Ā =
P (S)
P (A) + P Ā
= P (S)
P (A) + P Ā = 1

Example 155
DRrA
If the letters of the word ’REGULATIONS’ be arranged at random, what is’the
chance that there will be exactly 4 letters between R and E.
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DRrA
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Chapter 9

DRrA Module-II: 07 Hours

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 Probability I

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aFft
Module-II: 07 Hours
Basics of Probability, Different types of probability, Probability rules, Conditional
probability, Product rule, Bayes’ Rule.,
Topic to be covered in this slide are as follows:
1

3
Random experiment
Sample space and event DRrA
classical definition of probability
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 Assignment 2: Example 10-12 I

Example 156 (Homework)

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When two dice are thrown simultaneously, what is the probability that the sum of the
two numbers that turn up is less than 12?

Example 157 (Homework)

In a box, there are 8 red, 7 blue and 6 green balls. One ball is picked up randomly.

Example 158 (Homework) DRrA

What is the probability that it is neither blue nor green

In a box, there are 8 red, 7 blue and 6 green balls. One ball is picked up randomly.
What is the probability that it is neither red nor blue

Example 159
D
A bag contains 3 red, 6 white and 7 blue balls. What is the probability that two balls
drawn are white and blue.

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 Assignment 2: Example 10-12 II

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Example 160
1 Two cards are drawn at random from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards, Show that
1
the chance of drawing two aces is 21
2 From a pack of 52 cards, three are drawn at random, Find the chance that they
are a king, a queen and a ace.

Example 161
1

3
DRrA
Four cards are drawn from a pack of cards, Find the probability that
all are diamond.
there are two spades and two hearts.
there is one card of each suit.
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 Assignment 2: Example 10-12 III

Example 162

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aFft
A committee of 4 people is to be appointed from 3 officers of the production
department, 4 officers of the purchase department, two officers of the sales
department and 1 chartered accountant, Find the probability of forming the committee
in the following manner:
1 There must be one from each category.

Example 163
DRrA
From a set of raffle tickets numbered 1 to 100,three are drawn at random. What is the
probability that all the tickets are odd-numbered.

Example 164
Seven cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability that
D
4 will be red and 3 black

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 Assignment 2: Example 10-12 IV

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Example 165

aFft
A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of playing cards. What is the probability
that it is either a spade or an ace.

Example 166
A box contains 6 red, 4 white and 5 black balls. A person draws 4 balls from the box

Example 167
DRrA
,at random. Find the probability that among the balls drawn there is at least one ball
of each color.

A problem in Statistics is given to the three students A,B and C whose chances of
solving it are 21 , 34 , and 14 respectively. What is ,the probability that the problem will
be solved if all of them try independently.
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DRrA
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Chapter 10

DRrA Module-II: 07 Hours

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 Probability I

T
aFft
Module-II: 07 Hours
Basics of Probability, Different types of probability, Probability rules, Conditional
probability, Product rule, Bayes’ Rule.,
Topic to be covered in this slide are as follows:
1

3
Random experiment
Sample space and event DRrA
classical definition of probability
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 155 / 313
Some More Practice Problems I

Example 168

T
There are 4000 people living in a village including 1500 female. Among the people in

aFft
the village, the age of 1000 people is above 25 years which includes 400 female.
Suppose a person is chosen and you are told that the chosen person is a female. What
is the probability that her age is above 25 years.

DRrA
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 156 / 313
Some More Practice Problems II

Example 169

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aFft
DRrA
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 157 / 313
Some More Practice Problems III

Example 170

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aFft
DRrA
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 158 / 313
Some More Practice Problems IV

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aFft
DRrA
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 159 / 313
Some More Practice Problems V

T
Example 171

aFft
A box contains 3 blue, 2 red marbles while another contains 2 blue, 5 red A marble
drawn at random from one of the boxes terms out to be blue What is the probability
that it come from the first box?

DRrA
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 160 / 313
Some More Practice Problems VI

Example 172

T
A bowl one contains 6 red chips and 4 blue chips 5 of these are selected at random

aFft
and put in bowl 2 which was originally empty One chip is drawn at random from
bowl 2 relative to the hypothesis that this chip is blue Find the conditional probability
that 2 red chips and 3 blue chips are transferred from bowl 1 to bowl 2.

DRrA
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 161 / 313
Some More Practice Problems VII

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DRrA
D
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Some More Practice Problems VIII

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aFft
DRrA
D
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Some More Practice Problems IX

T
Example 173

aFft
DRrA
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 164 / 313
Some More Practice Problems X

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Example 174

DRrA
D
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Some More Practice Problems XI

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aFft
DRrA
D
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Some More Practice Problems XII

Example 175

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aFft
DRrA
D
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Some More Practice Problems XIII

T
Example 176

aFft
DRrA
D
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Some More Practice Problems XIV

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Example 177

DRrA
D
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Some More Practice Problems XV

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aFft
DRrA
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 170 / 313
Some More Practice Problems XVI

Example 178

T
aFft
DRrA
D
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 T
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DRrA
D
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 T
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Chapter 11

DRrA Module-III: 12 Hours

.
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 173 / 313
 Probability I

T
aFft
Module-III: 12 Hours
Addition theorem (two and three events), conditional probability of two events, multi-
plication theorem, independence of events-pair wise and mutual, Bayes theorem.
Topic to be covered in this slide are as follows:
1 Addition theorem (two and three events).
2

5
Multiplication theorem.
DRrA
Conditional probability of two events.
independence of events-pair wise and mutual.
Bayes theorem.
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 174 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability I

Theorem 179

T
P(A ∩ B) = P(A).P(B|A); P(A) > 0

aFft
For two events A and B
= P(B).P(A|B); P(B) > 0

Proof: P(A) = n(A) n(B) n(A∩B)

n(S) P(B) = n(S) and P(A ∩ B) = n(S)
For the conditional event A|B the favorable outcomes must be one of the sample points
of B.;
P(A|B) = n(A∩B)
Rewriting ,
n(B)

P(A ∩ B) = n(B) n(A∩B)

n(S) n(B)
P(A ∩ B) = n(B)
n(S) P(A|B)
Similarly we can prove that
DRrA
P(A ∩ B) = P(A).P(B|A); P(A) > 0 proved
. Remarks: Note:
D
1 for P(B) > 0; P(A|B) ≤ P(A)
2 The conditional probability P(A|B) is not defined if P(B) = 0

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 175 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability II

3 P(B|B) = 1

T
Theorem 180 (Multiplication Law of Probability for Independent Events)

aFft
If A and B are independent then
1 P(A|B) = P(A)
2 P(B|A) = P(B)
Proof: as we all know that for independent event
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)

Theorem 181
For any three events A, Band C
DRrA
then put the value in the first theorem we get the final result. proved.

P(A ∪ B|C) = P(A|C) + P(B|C) − P(A ∩ B|C)

Proof: we have
D
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
P [(A ∩ C) ∪ (B ∩ C)] = P(A ∩ C) + P(B ∩ C) − P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 176 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability III

P [(A ∩ C) ∪ (B ∩ C)] P(A ∩ C) + P(B ∩ C) − P(A ∩ B ∩ C)

=

T
P(C) P(C)

aFft
P [(A ∪ B) ∩ C)] P(A ∩ C) P(B ∩ C) P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
= + −
P(C) P(C) P(C) P(C)
P(A ∪ B|C) = P(A|C) + P(B|C) − P(A ∩ B|C) proved

Theorem 182
For any three events A,B,C

P(A ∩ B̄|C) + P(A ∩ B|C) =

P(A ∩ B̄|C) + P(A ∩ B|C) =
DRrA
P(A ∩ B̄|C) + P(A ∩ B|C) = P(A|C)

Proof: L.H.S
P(A∩B̄∩C)
P(C) + P(A∩B∩C)
P(C)
P(A∩B̄∩C)+P(A∩B∩C)
P(C)
P(A∩C)
P(A ∩ B̄|C) + P(A ∩ B|C) =
D
P(C)
P(A ∩ B̄|C) + P(A ∩ B|C) = P(A|C) Proved

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 177 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability IV

Theorem 183

T
P(S|B) = 1

aFft
P(S∩B)
Proof:P(S|B) = P(B)
P(S|B) = P(B)
P(B)
Therefore, P(S|B) = 1 proved

Theorem 184

DRrA
If A and B are independent events then A and B̄ are also independent events.
Proof: As we that for independent event
P(A ∩ B̄) = P(A) − P(A ∩ B)
P(A ∩ B̄) = P(A) − P(A) · P(B) [because independent event]
P(A ∩ B̄) = P(A) [1 − P(B)]
P(A ∩ B̄) = P(A) × P(B̄)
D
Hence, it is clear that A and B̄ are also independent events.
Proved

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 178 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability V

Theorem 185
If A and B are independent events then Ā and B̄ are also independent events.

T
aFft
Proof: As we that for independent event

P(Ā ∩ B̄) = P(A ∪ B)

P(Ā ∩ B̄) = 1 − P(A ∪ B)

DRrA P(Ā ∩ B̄) = 1 − [P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)]

P(Ā ∩ B̄) = 1 − P(A) − P(B) + P(A ∩ B)
P(Ā ∩ B̄) = 1 − P(A) − P(B) + P(A)P(B)
P(Ā ∩ B̄) = 1 − P(A) − P(B) [1 − P(A)]
P(Ā ∩ B̄) = 1 [1 − P(A)] − P(B) [1 − P(A)]
D
P(Ā ∩ B̄) = [1 − P(A)] [1 − P(B)]
P(Ā ∩ B̄) = P(Ā)P(B̄)

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 179 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability VI

Hence, it is clear that Ā and B̄ are also independent events.

T
proved

aFft
Theorem 186
If A ,B,C are mutually independent event then A ∪ B and C are also independent
Proof: we need to prove
P [(A ∪ B) ∩ C] = P(A ∪ B)P(C)
L.H.S
DRrA
P [(A ∪ B) ∩ C] = P(A ∩ C) ∪ P(B ∩ C) [distributive law]
P [(A ∪ B) ∩ C] = P(A ∩ C) + P(B ∩ C) − P(A ∩ B ∩ C) [addition law]
Since, A,B, C are independent events therefore, we get
P [(A ∪ B) ∩ C] = P(A)P(C) + P(B)P(C) − P(A)P(B)P(C)
P [(A ∪ B) ∩ C] = P(C) [P(A) + P(B) − P(A)P(B)]
P [(A ∪ B) ∩ C] = P(C) [P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)]
D
P [(A ∪ B) ∩ C] = P(C)P(A ∪ B)

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 180 / 313
 T
aFft
DRrA
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 181 / 313
 T
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Chapter 12

DRrA Module-III: 12 Hours

.
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 182 / 313
 Probability I

T
aFft
Module-III: 12 Hours
Addition theorem (two and three events), conditional probability of two events, multi-
plication theorem, independence of events-pair wise and mutual, Bayes theorem.
Topic to be covered in this slide are as follows:
1 Addition theorem (two and three events).
2

5
Multiplication theorem.
DRrA
Conditional probability of two events.
independence of events-pair wise and mutual.
Bayes theorem.
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 183 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability I

Example 187

T
A die is rolled, find the probability that the number obtained is greater than 4.

aFft
Solution: when a die is rolled then the the sample space is n(S) = 6
E= the event that obtained the number greater than 4 i.e., 5 and 6.
n(E) = 2
Therefore, the probability = P(E) = n(E) 2
n(S) = 6 = 3
1

Example 188
DRrA
Two coins are tossed, find the probability that one head only is obtained.
Solution: When two coins are tossed together then the sample space is = n(S) = 4
The outcome(s) favorable to no head obtained is {TT}
The outcome(s) favorable to one head obtained is {HT, TH}
E= the event that obtain only one head i.e., {HT, TH}
D
n(E) = 2
Therefore, the probability = P(E) = n(E) 2
n(S) = 4 = 2
1

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 184 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability II

Example 189

T
aFft
In a class, 40% of the students study math and science. 60% of the students study
math. What is the probability of a student studying science given he/she is already
studying math.
Solution: M= the students those who study mathematics.
S= the students those who study Science.

P(S) = 100 = 0.60

= 0.40
DRrA
According to the question; The given information are as follows
40% of the students study math and science i.e.,
P(M ∩ S) = 10040

Additionally, 60% of the students study math i.e.,

60

Now our aim is to find, P(S|M) =?

’ from the definition, we know that,
P(S|M) = P(M∩S) 0.40 2
D
P(S) = 0.60 = 3 ans

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 185 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability III

Example 190

T
What is the probability of the occurrence of a number that is odd and less than 5 when

aFft
a fair die is rolled.
Solution: when a die is rolled then the the sample space is n(S) = 6
E= event that occurs a number that is odd and less than 5. n(E) = {1, 3}
n(E) = 2
Therefore, the probability = P(E) = n(E) 2 1
n(S) = 6 = 3 ans

Example 191
DRrA
In a purse there are 30 coins, twenty one-rupee and remaining 50-paise coins. Eleven
coins are picked simultaneously at random and are placed in a box. If a coin is now
picked from the box, find the probability of it being a rupee coin
Solution: Total coins 30
In that,
D
1 rupee coins 20
50 paise coins 10

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Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability IV

Probability of total 1 rupee coins = 20 C11

Probability that 11 coins are picked = 30 C11

T
20
C11 2
Required probability of a coin now picked from the box is 1 rupee = =

aFft
30 C 3
11

Example 192
A bag contains 5 red smileys, 6 yellow smileys and 3 green smileys. If two smileys are
picked at random, what is the probability that both are red or both are green in colour

DRrA
Solution: Total number of smileys = 5+6+3=14
n(S)= 2 smileys need to pick from the pack of 14 smileys i.e., = 14 C2
n(R)= event that pick two smileys out of five red smileys i.e., = 5 C2
N(G)= event that pick two smileys out of three green smileys i.e., = 3 C2
Our aim is to find n(R ∪ G)
from the question it is clear that, R, Y and G are independent events;
P(R ∪ G) = P(R) + P(G)
5 3
P(R ∪ G) = 14CC22 + 14CC22
D
5×4 3×2
P(R ∪ G) = 14×13 + 14×13
10 3
P(R ∪ G) = 91 + 91
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 187 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability V

13
P(R ∪ G) = 91
1
P(R ∪ G) =

T
7

aFft
Example 193
Three newspapers A, B and C are published in a city and a survey of readers indicates
the following: 20% read A, 16% read B, 14% read C, 8% read both A and B, 5% read
with A and C, 4% read both B and C and 65% read none of the papers. A person is
chosen at random. Find the probability that he read all the three papers.

20% of the students read A i.e.,

20
P(A) = 100

16
P(B) = 100
= 0.20
16% of the students read B i.e.,
= 0.16
DRrA
Solution: According to question, the given information are as follows;

14% of the students read A i.e.,

14
P(C) = 100 = 0.14
D
8% of the students read both A and B i.e.,
8
P(A ∩ B) = 100 = 0.08

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Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability VI

5% of the students read both A and C i.e.,

5
P(A ∩ C) = 100 = 0.05

T
4% of the students read both A and B i.e.,

aFft
4
P(B ∩ C) = 100 = 0.04
65% of the students read none of
above i.e.,
c 65
P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P A ∪ B ∪ C = 100 = 0.65


P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = 1 − P A ∪ B ∪ C = 1 − 0.65 = 0.35
our aim is to find the P(A ∩ B ∩ C) =?

DRrA
by using the addition formula for three events, we get
P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A)+P(B)+P(C)−P(A∩B)−P(B∩C)−P(A∩C)+P(A∩B∩C)
now put all the above value, we get
0.35 = 0.2 + 0.16 + 0.14 − 0.08 − 0.05 − 0.04 + P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = 0.02 ans

Example 194
D
The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 2/3 and the
probability that he will not get an electric contract is 5/9. If the probability of getting
at least one contract is 4/5, what is the probability that he will not get either

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 189 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability VII

Solution: Given data

P(Plumbing) = 23

T
P(Elecrtric) = 95

aFft
P(Plumbing ∪ Electric) = 45
By addition theorem of probability;
P(Plumbing ∪ Electric) = P(Plumb) + P(Elec) − P(Plumb ∩ Elec)
4 2 5
5 = 3 + 9 − P(Plumb ∩ Elec)
P(Plumbing ∩ Electric) = 23 + 59 − 45

P(Plumbing ∩ Electric) = 19

Example 195
45
45
DRrA
P(Plumbing ∩ Electric) = 30+25−36

Three persons A, B, and C fire at a target simultaneously. The probabilities that A, B

and C can hit the target is 1/3, 1/4 and 1/5 respectively. Find the probability that
atleast two of them hit the target.
D
Solution: given information P(A)=1/3; then P(Ā) = 2/3
P(B)=1/4; then P(B̄) = 3/4

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 190 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability VIII

P(C)=1/5; then P(C̄) = 4/5

hints: at first find the exactly two person hits the target.

T
aFft
P( A & B hits & C misses ) + P( A & C hits & B misses ) + P( B & C hits & A misses )
here A,B,C all are independent events.
P(A) × P(B) × P(C̄) + P(A) × P(C) × P(B̄) + P(B) × P(C) × P(Ā)
our aim is to find atleast two of them hits the target i.e.,
So P(atleast 2 persons hit the target)= P(Exactly two hit) + P(all three hit)
P(atleast 2 persons hit the target)= P(Exactly two hit) + P(A)P(B)P(C)

Example 196
DRrA
A man and his wife appear in an interview for two vacancies in the same post. The
probability of husband’s selection is (1/7) and the probability of wife’s selection is
(1/5). What is the probability that only one of them is selected.
Solution: Given data; Let E1 = event that the husband is selected and
E2 = event that the wife is selected.
D
Then,
P(E1 ) = 71 and P(Ē1 ) = 1 − 17 = 67

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 191 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability IX

P(E2 ) = 15 and P(Ē2 ) = 1 − 15 = 45

Required probability = P [( A and not B) or (B and not A)]

T
aFft
= P [(E1 ∩ Ē2 ) or (E2 ∩ Ē1 )]
= P (E1 ∩ Ē2 ) + P (E2 ∩ Ē1 )
=P (E1 ) P (Ē2) + P (E2 ) P (Ē1 )
= 17 × 45 + 15 × 76
= 10 2
35 = 7 ans

Example 197
DRrA
A basket contains 10 apples and 20 oranges out of which 3 apples and 5 oranges are
defective. If we choose two fruits at random, what is the probability that either both
are oranges or both are non defective.
Total number of fruits in the basket is 20+10=30
n(S)= pick two fruits at random i.e., 30 C2
total number of defective fruits are= 3+5=8
D
therefore, total number of non-defective fruits are 30-8=22
let us consider a event which contains two oranges i.e. n(O) = 20 C2

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 192 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability X

T
aFft
another event that are non-defective fruits= n(ND) = 22 C2
And n(O ∩ ND) be the event of getting two non-defective oranges = P( oranges and
non defective) = 15 C2
now, using addition theorem,
P(O ∪ ND) = P(O) + P(ND) − P(O ∩ ND)
20

20×19
P(O ∪ ND) = 30×29
P(O ∪ ND) = 870
P(O ∪ ND) = 316
632

435
22

+ 22×21 DRrA
15
P(O ∪ ND) = 30 CC22 + 30 CC22 − 30 CC22
30×29 − 30×29
15×14
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 193 / 313
 T
aFft
DRrA
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 194 / 313
 T
aFft
Chapter 13

DRrA Module-III: 12 Hours

.
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 195 / 313
 Probability I

T
aFft
Module-III: 12 Hours
Addition theorem (two and three events), conditional probability of two events, multi-
plication theorem, independence of events-pair wise and mutual, Bayes theorem.
Topic to be covered in this slide are as follows:
1 Addition theorem (two and three events).
2

5
Multiplication theorem.
DRrA
Conditional probability of two events.
independence of events-pair wise and mutual.
Bayes theorem.
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 196 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability I

Example 198

T
A basket contains 10 apples and 20 oranges out of which 3 apples and 5 oranges are

aFft
defective. If we choose two fruits at random, what is the probability that either both
are oranges or both are non defective.
Total number of fruits in the basket is 20+10=30
n(S)= pick two fruits at random i.e., 30 C2
total number of defective fruits are= 3+5=8

DRrA
therefore, total number of non-defective fruits are 30-8=22
let us consider a event which contains two oranges i.e. n(O) = 20 C2
another event that are non-defective fruits= n(ND) = 22 C2
And n(O ∩ ND) be the event of getting two non-defective oranges = P( oranges and
non defective) = 15 C2
now, using addition theorem,
P(O ∪ ND) = P(O) + P(ND) − P(O ∩ ND)
D
20 22 15
P(O ∪ ND) = 30 CC22 + 30 CC22 − 30 CC22
20×19
P(O ∪ ND) = 30×29 + 22×21
30×29 − 30×29
15×14

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 197 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability II

632
P(O ∪ ND) = 870
316
P(O ∪ ND) =

T
435

aFft
Example 199
A box contains 10 bulbs, of which just three are defective. If a random sample of five
bulbs is drawn, find the probability that the sample contains exactly one defective
bulb.

.
Example 200
DRrA
Solution: Total number of elementary events = 10 C5
10C5 Number of ways of selecting exactly one defective bulb out of 3 and 4 non-
defective out of 7 is = 3 C1 × 7 C4
3 7
So,required probability = C101 ×C5C4 = 12
5

Two friend Harshita and Srikanta appeared for an exam. The probability of selection
D
of Harshita is 1/7 and that of Srikanta is 2/9. Find the probability that both of them are
selected.

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Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability III

Solution P(H) = 71

T
P(S) = 29

aFft
Our objective is to find the probability that both of them are selected i.e., P(H ∩ S)
Since both are independent events i.e.,
P(H ∩ S) = P(H) × P(S)
P(H ∩ S) = 17 × 29
2
P(H ∩ S) = 63

Example 201
DRrA
In a race, the odd favour of cars P,Q,R,S are 1:7, 1:8, 1:9 and 1:10 respectively. Find
the probability that one of them wins the race.
Solution: P(P) = 17 ; P(Q) = 18 ; P(R) = 19 ; P(S) = 10
1

All the events are mutually exclusive hence,

Required probability = P(P) + P(Q) + P(R) + P(S)
D
= 17 + 18 + 91 + 10
1

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 199 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability IV

Example 202

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USNs numbered 1 to 20 are mixed up and then a USN is drawn at random. What is

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the probability that the USN drawn has a number which is a multiple of 3 or 5.
Solution: Here, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, ...., 19, 20}.
n(S) = 20 C1 = 20
Let E = event of getting a multiple of 3 or 5 i.e.,
(3 ∪ 5) = {3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 5, 10, 20}.
n(3 ∪ 5) = 9 C1 = 9
P(3 ∪ 5) = n(3∪5)

Example 203
n(S) = 20
9
DRrA
A problem is given to three persons P, Q, R whose respective chances of solving it are
2/7, 4/7, 4/9 respectively. What is the probability that the problem is solved
Solution:Let A, B, C be the respective events of solving the problem and
D
Ā, B̄, C̄ be the respective events of not solving the problem.
It is clear that, A, B, C are independent event.

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 200 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability V

From the theorem we know that, if A, B, C are independent event then Ā, B̄, C̄ also are
independent event.

T
now, P(A)= 72 then P(Ā) = 1 − 27 = 57

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P(B)= 47 then P(B̄) = 1 − 47 = 37
P(C)= 94 then P(C̄) = 1 − 49 = 59
P( none solves the problem) = P(not A) and (not B) and (not C)
= P(Ā ∩ B̄ ∩ C̄)
= P(Ā)P(B̄)P(C̄) = 57 73 59
75
= 441

= 1 − 441

Example 204
= 366 122
441 = 147
DRrA
Hence, P(the problem will be solved) = 1 - P(none solves the problem)
75

Two cards are drawn from the pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that both are
diamonds or both are kings.
D
Solution: Let A = event of getting both diamond cards.
B = event of getting both kings.

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 201 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability VI

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n(S)= two cards drawn at a time = 52 C2 = 1326
n(A) = 13 C2 = 78
n(B) = 4 C2 = 6
n(A ∩ B) = 1
now from the addition theorem, we get,
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
78
P(A ∪ B) = 1326
83
P(A ∪ B) = 1326
6
+ 1326
ans

Example 205 (homework)

1
− 1326
DRrA
From a pack of cards, three cards are drawn at random. Find the probability that each
card is from different suit.
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 202 / 313
 T
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DRrA
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 203 / 313
 T
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Chapter 14

DRrA Module-III: 12 Hours

.
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 204 / 313
 Probability I

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Module-III: 12 Hours
Addition theorem (two and three events), conditional probability of two events, multi-
plication theorem, independence of events-pair wise and mutual, Bayes theorem.
Topic to be covered in this slide are as follows:
1 Addition theorem (two and three events).
2

5
Multiplication theorem.
DRrA
Conditional probability of two events.
independence of events-pair wise and mutual.
Bayes theorem.
D
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 205 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability I

Example 206

T
in answering a question on a multiple choice test a student either knows the answer or

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guess. Let 3/4 be the probability that he know the answer and 1/4 be the probability
that he guesses. Assuming that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct
with the probability 1/4. what is the probability that a student knows the answer given
that he answered it correctly.

E1 = student know the answer

E2 = student guesses the answer.
A = student answers correctly.
we have,
DRrA
Solution: Consider the following events:

P(E1 ) = 34 and P(E2 ) = 14 also given that P(A|E2 ) = 14 and P(A|E1 ) = 1

As per the bayes theorem;
P(E1 )P(A|E1 )
The required probability = P(E1 |A) = P(E1 )P(A|E
D
1 )+P(E2 )P(A|E2 )
( 34 ×1) 3
12
= P(E1 |A) = 3 ×1 + 1 × 1 = 134 = 13
( 4 ) ( 4 4 ) 16

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 206 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability II

Example 207
A laboratory blood test is 99% effective in detecting a certain disease when it is, in

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fact, present, however, the test also yields a false positive result for 0.5% of the
healthy person tested (i.e., if a healthy person is tested , then , with probability 0.005,
the test will imply he has the disease). if 0.1% of the population actually has the
disease, what is the probability thar a person has the disease given that his test result
is positive

P(E1 ) = 1000 and P(E2 ) = 1000

DRrA
Solution: Consider the following events:
E1 = person selected has the disease
E2 = person selected does not have the disease
A = test result is positive.
we have,
1 999
also given that P(A|E2 ) = 1000 5
and P(A|E1 ) = 99
100
As per the bayes theorem;
P(E1 )P(A|E1 )
The required probability = P(E1 |A) = P(E1 )P(A|E
D
1 )+P(E2 )P(A|E2 )
( 1000
1 99
× 100 ) 99
990
= P(E1 |A) = 1 × 99 + 999 × 5 = 5985 = 5985 100000
( 1000 100 ) ( 1000 1000 ) 1000000

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 207 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability III

Example 208

T
there are three coins. One is a two headed coin, another is a biased coin that comes up

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heads 75% of the time and third is an unbiased coin. one of the three coin is chosen at
random and tossed, it shows heads, what is the probability that it was the two headed
coin.
Solution: Consider the following events:
E1 = selecting two headed coin
E2 = selecting biased coin.
E3 = selecting unbiased coin.
A = getting head on the coin.
we have,
DRrA
P(E1 ) = P(E2 ) = P(E3 ) = 13 and P(A|E3 ) = 12 also given that P(A|E2 ) =
P(A|E1 ) = 1
75
100 and

As per the bayes theorem;

P(E1 )P(A|E1 )
The required probability = P(E1 |A) = P(E1 )P(A|E1 )+P(E
D
2 )P(A|E2 )++P(E3 )P(A|E3 )
( 31 ×1) 1
4
= P(E1 |A) = 1 ×1 + 1 × 75 + 1 × 1 = 9 = 9
3
( 3 ) ( 3 100 ) ( 3 2 ) 12

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 208 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability IV

Example 209

T
Two groups are competing for the position on the board of directors of a corporation.

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the probabilities that the first and the second groups will win are 0.6 and 0.4
respectively. further, if the first group wins , the probability of introducing a new
product is 0.7 and the corresponding probability is 0.3 if the second group wins, find
the probability that the new product was introduced by the second group.
Solution: Consider the following events:
E1 = that the first group win
DRrA
E2 = the event the second group win
A = event to introduce the new product.
we have,
P(E1 ) = 0.6 and P(E2 ) = 0.4 also given that P(A|E2 ) = 0.3 and P(A|E1 ) = 0.7
As per the bayes theorem;
P(E1 )P(A|E1 )
The required probability = P(E1 |A) = P(E1 )P(A|E
D
1 )+P(E2 )P(A|E2 )
(0.4×0.3) 0.12 2
= P(E2 |A) = (0.4×0.3)+(0.6×0.7) = 0.54 = 9

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 209 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability V

Example 210

T
A bag contains 4 Red and 4 Black balls another bag contains 2 Red and 6 Black balls.

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one of the two bags is selected at random and a ball is drawn from the bag which is
found to be Red. find the probability that the ball is drawn from the first bag.
Solution: Consider the following events:
E1 = event of selecting the first bag

P(E1 ) = P(E2 ) = 12
DRrA
E2 = event of selecting the second bag
A = event of selecting the red ball.
we have,

also given that P(A|E2 ) = 82 and P(A|E1 ) = 48

As per the Bayes theorem;
P(E1 )P(A|E1 )
The required probability = P(E1 |A) = P(E1 )P(A|E 1 )+P(E2 )P(A|E2 )
(2×2)
1 1
D
1
2
= P(E1 |A) = 1 × 1 + 1 × 1 = 3 = 3
4
(2 2) (2 4) 8

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 210 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability VI

Example 211

T
A company has two plants to manufacture TVs. The first plant manufacture 70% of

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the TV and rest are manufacture by the other plant. 80% of the TVs manufacture by
the first plant are rated of standard quality, while that of the second plant only 70% are
of standard quality. If a TV chosen at random is found to be of standard quality, find
the probability that it was produced by the first plant.
Solution: Consider the following events:

P(E1 ) = 0.7, P(E2 ) = 100

As per the Bayes theorem;
DRrA
E1 = selecting TV manufacturing in the first plant.
E2 = selecting TV manufacturing in the second plant.
A = selecting TV in standard quality.
we have,
30
also given that P(A|E2 ) = 10070
and P(A|E1 ) = 80
100

P(E1 )P(A|E1 )
The required probability = P(E1 |A) = P(E1 )P(A|E 1 )+P(E2 )P(A|E2 )
D
( 100
70 80
× 100 ) 56
8
= P(E1 |A) = 70 × 80 + 30 × 70 = 100 77 = 11
( 100 100 ) ( 100 100 ) 100

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 211 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability VII

Example 212
A factory has three machines A,B and C, which produce 100, 200 and 300 items of a

T
particular type daily. The machines produced 2% , 3% and 5% defective items

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respectively. One day when the production over, and item was picked up randomly
and it was found to be defective. find the probability that it was produced by machine
A.
Solution: Consider the following events:
E1 = selecting the production of machine A

P(E1 ) = 100 200

DRrA
E2 = selecting the production of machine A
E3 = selecting the production of machine A
A = selecting the product of defective items.
we have,
300
600 , P(E2 ) = 600 , P(E3 ) = 600 and P(A|E3 ) = 0.05 also given that
P(A|E2 ) = 0.03 and P(A|E1 ) = 0.02
As per the bayes theorem;
D
P(E1 )P(A|E1 )
The required probability = P(E1 |A) = P(E1 )P(A|E1 )+P(E 2 )P(A|E2 )+P(E3 )P(A|E3 )
( 6 ×0.02)
1
2
= P(E1 |A) = 1 ×0.02 + 1 ×0.03 + 1 ×0.05 = 23
(6 ) (3 ) (2 )
Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 212 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability VIII

Example 213

T
The chance that a doctor will diagnose a disease correctly is 60%. The chance that a

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patient will die after correct diagnosis is 40% and the chance of death by wrong
diagnosis is 70%. If a patient dies, what is the chance that his disease was not
correctly diagnosed?
Solution: Consider the following events:
E1 = disease X is diagnosed correctly by Dr. A

DRrA
E2 = disease X is diagnosed not correctly by Dr. A
E = A patient of Dr. A who had disease X dies.
we have,
P(E1 ) = 0.6, P(E2 ) = 1 − P(E1 ) = 100
70
40
40
also given that P(E|E2 ) = 100 and P(E|E1 ) = 100
As per the Bayes theorem;
P(E2 )P(E|E2 )
The required probability = P(E2 |E) = P(E1 )P(E|E 1 )+P(E2 )P(E|E2 )
D
( 100
70 40
× 100 ) 0.28 7
= P(E2 |E) = 60 × 40 + 40 × 70 = 0.52 = 13
( 100 100 ) ( 100 100 )

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 213 / 313
Multiplication Law or Probability and Conditional Probability IX

Example 214

T
aFft
A letter is known to have either come from TATANAGAR or CALCUTTA. on the
envelop just two consecutive letters “TA” are visible. what is the probability that the
letter came from CALCUTTA.
Solution: Consider the following events:
E1 = event that the letter came from TATANAGAR
E2 = event that the letter came from CALCUTTA

P(E1 ) = P(E2 ) = 12 ,
DRrA
E = that two consecutive visible letters on the envelop are “TA”.
we have,

also given that P(E|E2 ) = 17 and P(E|E1 ) = 28

As per the Bayes theorem;
P(E1 )P(A|E1 )
The required probability = P(E2 |E) = P(E1 )P(A|E 1 )+P(E2 )P(A|E2 )
( 12 × 17 )
D
4
= P(E2 |R) = 1 × 1 + 1 × 1 = 11
(2 7) (2 8)

Dr Ranjan Kumar (VIT-AP University, Amravathi) Applied Statistics August 6, 2023 214 / 313
Assignment Related Module 2 Bayes Theorem, multiplication Theorem I

T
aFft
Example 215 (Assignment Question 1 to 2)

DRrA
D
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Assignment Related Module 2 Bayes Theorem, multiplication Theorem II

T
Example 216 (Assignment Question 3 to 4)

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DRrA
D
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Assignment Related Module 2 Bayes Theorem, multiplication Theorem III

Example 217 (Assignment Question 5 to 6)

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DRrA
D
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Assignment Related Module 2 Bayes Theorem, multiplication Theorem IV

Example 218 (Assignment Question 7 to 8)

T
aFft
DRrA
D
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Assignment Related Module 2 Bayes Theorem, multiplication Theorem V

T
aFft
Example 219 (Assignment Question 9 to 10)

DRrA
D
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Assignment Related Module 2 Bayes Theorem, multiplication Theorem VI

T
aFft
Example 220 (Assignment Question 11)

DRrA
D
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Assignment Related Module 2 Bayes Theorem, multiplication Theorem VII

T
aFft
Example 221 (Assignment Question 12)

DRrA
D
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Assignment Related Module 2 Bayes Theorem, multiplication Theorem VIII

T
aFft
Example 222 (Assignment Question 13 to 14)

DRrA
D
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Assignment Related Module 2 Bayes Theorem, multiplication Theorem IX

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Example 223 (Assignment Question 15 to 16)

DRrA
D
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Assignment Related Module 2 Bayes Theorem, multiplication Theorem X

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Example 224 (Assignment Question 17 to 18)

DRrA
D
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Assignment Related Module 2 Bayes Theorem, multiplication Theorem XI

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Example 225 (Assignment Question 19 to 20)

DRrA
D
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 T
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DRrA
D
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 T
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THANK YOU
DRrA
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