Chapter 4

Probability and
Counting Rules

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Probability and Counting Rules

Outline
4
4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
4-2 The Addition Rules for Probability
4-3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional
Probability
4-4 Counting Rules
4-5 Probability and Counting Rules

Slide 2
Probability and Counting Rules

Objectives
4
1 Determine sample spaces and find the probability of
an event, using classical probability or empirical
probability.
2 Find the probability of compound events, using the
addition rules.
3 Find the probability of compound events, using the
multiplication rules.
4 Find the conditional probability of an event.

Slide 3
Probability and Counting Rules

Objectives
4
5 Find the total number of outcomes in a sequence of
events, using the fundamental counting rule.
6 Find the number of ways that r objects can be
selected from n objects, using the permutation rule.
7 Find the number of ways that r objects can be
selected from n objects without regard to order, using
the combination rule.
8 Find the probability of an event, using the counting
rules.
Slide 4
 Probability
•Probability can be defined as the chance
of an event occurring. It can be used to
quantify what the “odds” are that a
specific event will occur. Some examples
of how probability is used everyday would
be weather forecasting, “75% chance of
rain” or for setting insurance rates.

Bluman, Chapter 4 5
 4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
• A probability experiment is a chance
process that leads to well-defined results
called outcomes.
• An outcome is the result of a single trial of a
probability experiment.
• A sample space is the set of all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment.
• An event consists of outcomes.
Bluman, Chapter 4 6
 Sample7"Spaces

Experiment Sample Space

Toss a coin Head, Tail
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Answer a true/false True, False
question
Toss two coins HH, HT, TH, TT

Bluman, Chapter 4 7
 Example 4-1: Rolling Dice
Find the sample space for rolling two dice.

Bluman, Chapter 4 8
Section 4-1 Exercise #1
If two dice are rolled one time, find the probability of
getting these results.
a. A sum of 6
b. Doubles
c. A sum of 7 or 11
d. A sum greater than 9
a. A sum of 6
2 Total of 36 outcomes
There are 6 or 36 outcomes.
There are 5 ways to get a sum of 6.
They are (1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), and (5,1).
5
The probability then is .
36

b. Doubles

There are six ways to get doubles. They are (1,1), (2,2),
(3,3), (4,4), (5,5), and (6,6).
6 1
The probability is then = .
36 6
 Total of 36 outcomes
c. A sum of 7 or 11
There are six ways to get a sum of 7. They are (1,6), (2,5),
(3,4), (4,3), (5,2), and (6,1).
There are two ways to get a sum of 11. They are (5,6) and
(6,5). 8 2
The probability then is = .
36 9
d. A sum of greater than 9

To get a sum greater than nine, one must roll a 10, 11, or 12.
There are six ways to get a 10, 11, or 12. They are (4,6), (5,5),
(6,4), (6,5), (5,6), and (6,6).
6 1
The probability then is = .
36 6
 Example 4-3: Gender of Children
Find the sample space for the gender of the children if
a family has three children. Use B for boy and G for
girl.

BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG

Bluman, Chapter 4 12
 Example 4-4: Gender of Children
Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for the
gender of three children in a family.
B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
G BGG
B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G
G GGG
Bluman, Chapter 4 13
 Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:

•Classical probability

•Empirical probability

•Subjective probability

Bluman, Chapter 4 14
 Sample Spaces and Probability
Classical probability uses sample spaces to
determine the numerical probability that an
event will happen and assumes that all
outcomes in the sample space are equally likely
to occur.

nE # of desired outcomes

PE  
n  S  Total # of possible outcomes

Bluman, Chapter 4 15
Sample Spaces and Probability
Rounding Rule for Probabilities
Probabilities should be expressed as reduced fractions
or rounded to two or three decimal places. When the
probability of an event is an extremely small decimal,
it is permissible to round the decimal to the first
nonzero digit after the decimal point.

Bluman, Chapter 4 16
 Example 4-6: Gender of Children
If a family has three children, find the probability that
two of the three children are girls.

Sample Space:
BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG

Three outcomes (BGG, GBG, GGB) have two girls.

The probability of having two of three children being

girls is 3/8.

Bluman, Chapter 4 17
Probability Rule 1
The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or
decimal) between and including 0 and 1.

This is denoted by 0  P(E)  1.

Probability Rule 2
If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no members
in the sample space), its probability is 0.
Probability Rule 3
If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.
Probability Rule 4
The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample
space is 1.
 Exercise 4-9: Rolling a Die
When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of
getting a number less than 7?

Since all outcomes—1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6—are less than

7, the probability is

The event of getting a number less than 7 is certain.

Bluman, Chapter 4 22
 Sample Spaces and Probability
The complement of an event E ,
denoted by E , is the set of outcomes
in the sample space that are not
included in the outcomes of event E.

P
E =
1
P
E

Bluman, Chapter 4 23
 Example 4-10: Finding Complements
Find the complement of each event.

Event Complement of the Event

Rolling a die and getting a 4 Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6
Selecting a letter of the Getting a consonant (assume y is a
consonant)
alphabet and getting a vowel
Selecting a month and Getting February, March, April, May,
August, September, October,
getting a month that begins November, or December
with a J
Selecting a day of the week Getting Saturday or Sunday
and getting a weekday

Bluman, Chapter 4 24
 Example 4-11: Residence of People
If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized
1
country of the world is 5 , find the probability that a
person does not live in an industrialized country.

P Not living in industrialized country 

= 1  P  living in industrialized country 
1 4
 1 
5 5

Bluman, Chapter 4 25
 Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:

•Classical probability

•Empirical probability

•Subjective probability

Bluman, Chapter 4 26
 Sample Spaces and Probability
Empirical probability relies on actual
experience to determine the likelihood of
outcomes.

f frequency of desired class

PE  
n Sum of all frequencies

Bluman, Chapter 4 27
 Example 4-13: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
Type Frequency
f
A 22 P O 
B 5 n
AB 2 21

O 21 50
Total 50
Bluman, Chapter 4 28
 Example 4-13: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
Type Frequency
22 5
A 22 P  A or B   
B 5 50 50
AB 2 27

O 21 50
Total 50
Bluman, Chapter 4 29
 Example 4-13: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
Type Frequency
P  neither A nor O 
A 22
B 5 5 2
 
AB 2 50 50
O 21 7

Total 50 50
Bluman, Chapter 4 30
 Example 4-13: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Type Frequency
A 22 P  not AB 
B 5  1  P  AB 
AB 2
2 48 24
O 21  1  
50 50 25
Total 50
Bluman, Chapter 4 31
 Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:

•Classical probability

•Empirical probability

•Subjective probability

Bluman, Chapter 4 32
 Sample Spaces and Probability
Subjective probability uses a probability value
based on an educated guess or estimate,
employing opinions and inexact information.

Examples: weather forecasting, predicting

outcomes of sporting events

Bluman, Chapter 4 33
Activity 1
 4.2 Addition Rules for Probability
• Two events are mutually exclusive events if
they cannot occur at the same time (i.e., they
have no outcomes in common)

Addition Rules
P  A or B   P  A   P  B  Mutually Exclusive
P  A or B   P  A   P  B   P  A and B  Not M. E.

Bluman, Chapter 4 35
 Example 4-15: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not, when a single die is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even number

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting an even number: 2, 4, or 6

Mutually Exclusive

Bluman, Chapter 4 36
 Example 4-15: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not, when a single die is rolled.
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number

Getting a 3: 3
Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Not Mutually Exclusive

Bluman, Chapter 4 37
 Example 4-15: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not, when a single die is rolled.
c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less than 4

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

Not Mutually Exclusive

Bluman, Chapter 4 38
 Example 4-15: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not, when a single die is rolled.
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number less
than 4

Getting a number greater than 4: 5 or 6

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

Mutually Exclusive

Bluman, Chapter 4 39
 Example 4-18: R&D Employees
The corporate research and development centers for
three local companies have the following number of
employees:
U.S. Steel 110
Alcoa 750
Bayer Material Science 250
If a research employee is selected at random, find the
probability that the employee is employed by U.S. Steel
or Alcoa.

Bluman, Chapter 4 40
Example 4-18: R&D Employees

Bluman, Chapter 4 41
Example 4-19: Political affiliation at a
rally
Example 20: Drawing a card
 Example 4-21: Medical Staff
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7
nurses and 3 physicians are females.
If a staff person is selected, find the probability that the
subject is a nurse or a male.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13
P  Nurse or Male   P  Nurse   P  Male   P  Male Nurse 
8 3 1 10
   
13 13 13 13
Bluman, Chapter 4 44