In an attempt to identify a framework by which the economic development of nations

can be analyzed, W. Rostow proposed a five- stage model which tried to show how, over a

period of many decades, nations develop from a traditional society to one of high mass

consumption. Rostow based his model on studies of many countries and their Economic

and social history.

The model suggests that the low technology and agricultural

'traditional society' (stage 1) would, through external influences, gradually increase

investments in its infrastructure (such as roads, water supply, etc.) and develop its

agriculture and extractive industries in a new social and political framework in stage 2, as pre-

conditions for economic 'take-off' to occur (stage 3). From this point on

investment and economic growth become self-sustaining with manufacturing industries

developing. The impetus of this leading to

'economic maturity (stage 4). Finally, with the consumer durable industries supplying

the needs of a wealthy population who have a high level of consumption, the

economy is seen as being fully developed (stage 5).

Thus, according to Rostow, development proceeds in five stages:

STAGE-I: THE TRADITIONAL SOCIETY

Rostow uses this term to define a country that has not yet started a process of development. A

traditional society contains a very high percentage of people engaged in agricultural and a high

percentage of notional wealth allocated to what Rostow calls "nonproductive" activities,

such as the military and religion.

i. Less developed society in terms of science and technology;

ii. Limited production function

iii. Industry activity shows a tendency to grow, but the progress is constrained by the

inadequacy in scientific knowledge.

iv. Labour productivity is low

v. Predominance of agriculture leads to hierarchical social structure

vi. Concentration of political power

vii. Conventional techniques.

STAGE-II: THE PRECONDITIONS FOR TAKE-OFF

According the Rostow, the process of development begins when an elite group initiates

innovative economic activities. Under the influence of these well-educated leaders,

the country starts to invest in new technology and infrastructure, such as water supplies and

transportation systems. These projects will ultimately stimulate on increase in productivity.

Characteristics:

i. Societies are in a process of transition, building up conditions which, in

course of time, enable them to take-off;

iii. Broadened outlook of people;

iv. More emphasis on trade

v. Development of transport and communication.

Rostow noted history provides two different patterns of transition from the traditional

society :

• Changes in fundamental nature in the socio-political structure and in the production

techniques. This pattern was observed in Europe, Some parts of Asia, Middle East and

Africa;

• Change in economic and technical dimensions. This pattern observed in America,

Australia and New Zealand.

According to Rostow :

• Agrarian society should attempt to transform itself into industrial society;

• Trade and commerce should not remain localized

•Society should attempt to enlarge the area of its commercial activities;

•Surplus of income to be used to create more industries and developed infrastructure

Rapid growth is generated in a limited number of economic activities, such as textiles or

food products. These few take-off industries achieve technical advances and become

productive, while other sectors of the economy remain dominated by traditional practices.

Characteristics:

i. In this period, growth becomes a normal condition of the society;

ii. Begins with some sharp stimulus from political

revolution, innovation

iii. Investment rises 5-10% of the national income

iv. Substatial manufacturing sectors became developed, leading to high growth rate

v. More complex economy

Requirements of take-off:

• Rise in rate of investment and savings (>10%);

• Development of one or more substantial manufacturing sectors, with a high rate of

growth.

Rostow groups the sectors of economy in following three categories

in motion expansionary forces elsewhere;

Supplementary growth sectors, where rapid growth takes place in direct response to

progress in primary sectors.

Derived growth sectors, where growth materializes in some steady response to increases in

real income, population, etc.

STAGE-IV: THE DRIVE TO MATURITY

Modern technology, previously confined to a few take-off industries, diffuses to a wide

variety of industries, which then experience rapid growth comparable to the take-off

industries. Workers become more skilled and specialized.

Characteristics:

i. Changes in the character of labour force (more organized, increased wages)

ii. Changes in the character of entrepreneurship

iii. Increase in investment from 10-20% of National income

iv. Old methods are replaced by new technology

v. Increase in exports

vi. Less dependent on other countries

vii. Increase in standard of living

ix. Development of new sectors, because of linkage efforts, which can be forward* or

backward**

Note: A forward linkage* is created when investment in a particular project encourages

investment in subsequent stages of production. A backward linkage** is created when a

project encourages investment in facilities that enable the project to succeed. –Hirschman

STAGE-V: THE AGE OF MASS CONSUMPTION

A society approaches maturity. The economy shifts from production of heavy industry,

such as steel and energy, to consumer goods, like motor vehicles arid refrigerators.

Characteristics:

i. Attention shifts from problems of production to problems of consumption;

ii. Consumption of comforts and luxuries increase.

iii. Rate of investment rises above 20% of National Income

iv. Society assumes the role of a welfare state*

v. Migration of population from village to cities

vi. Increase in financial security

vii. More employment opportunity

instruments

ix. Progressive and prosperous society in which “hunger is something one reads

about and poverty a memory”

*According to Rostow, there are three important ways to allocate the resources to achieve

welfare:

• Allocation of resources for military and foreign policy requirements;

• Redistribution of income through progressive taxes;

• Expansion of consumption levels beyond the basic necessities of life (food,

shelter, clothing) like, education, health, infrastructure etc.

• More developed countries are in stage 4 or 5;

• less developed ones are in one of the three earlier stages.

• The model also asserts that today's developed countries have already passed through

the early stages.

Example of USA: The United States, for example, was in stage

1 before independence, stage 2 during the first half of the nineteenth century, stage

3 during the middle of the nineteenth century, and stage 4 during the late

nineteenth century, before entering stage 5 during the early twentieth century.

A country that concentrates on international trade will benefit from exposure to consumers in

other countries. To remain competitive, the take-off industries must constantly evaluate

changes in international consumer preferences, marketing strategies, production

engineering, and design technologies. This concern for international competitiveness

in the exporting take-of industries will filter through less advanced economic sectors
Rostow's optimistic projection for development was based on two factors.

First, the developed countries of Western Europe and Anglo- America had been joined by

others, notably Japan. If Japan could become more developed by following this model, why

not other countries?

Second, many LDC contain an abundant supply of raw materials sought by

manufacturers and producers in developed countries. In the past, European colonial

powers extracted many of these raw materials without paying compensation to the

colonies. In a global economy, the sale of these raw materials could generate funds for LDCs

to promote development.

Merits

Rostow based his model on studies of many countries and their economic and social history.

His ideas provide a useful framework against which to consider the current or past state of o

nation's economic and social standing.

Inadequacies

It may be argued however that Rostow's model has a number of inadequacies, the major ones

being that:
 i. A number of nations such as USA, Canada, New Zealand were born free

from traditional societies and they derived pre-conditions from Britain, which

was already advanced;

ii. Pre-condition is not necessary before take-off to come, The development in

agriculture continues in the take-off stage too;

iii. it does not define major specific criteria to measure a nation's performance or

place it in any one of the five stages shown in the model (such as the level of

earnings or proportion of workers in various sectors);

iv. the stages themselves may be said not to exist separately from each other

(the 'drive to maturity' for example can, in fact, coincide with an age of 'high

mass consumption’)

v. the degree of investment suggested by Rostow at the

'take-off stage was not in fact present in the histories of the developed nations of

today.

Conclusion

Despite these imperfections Rostow's model remains one of the best-known formulations of

nation's economic and social development, and the concept of 'economic take-off' is an

enduring one, and one which it may be said the less developed countries of the world ore

striving to achieve.