Thoughts on Processes for Peace

AUN-HRE Peace educators training

Bangkok, Thailand
August 9, 2023

Kamarulzaman Askandar
Research and Education for Peace
Universiti Sains Malaysia
Southeast Asia Conflict Studies Network
[email protected]
 Agenda
1. Personal conflict styles
2. Negotiating for peace
3. How to be an effective negotiator
4. Research agenda in the studies of CT and PB
5. Peace negotiations
6. The peace process flow chart
7. Peace process
8. The mediation process
9. UN guidance for effective mediation
10. Why peace processes fail?
11. Lessons from peace processes in the region
12. Exercise: Designing a peace process for Myanmar
 Five approaches to conflict
yielding problem solving
Concern for Other

compromising

withdrawal contending

Concern for Self

PROBLEM SOLVER CONTROLLER

Seeks to manage conflict by maintaining interpersonal Takes the necessary steps to ensure that his or her personal
relationships and ensuring that both parties to the conflict goals are met, whatever the cost to the relationship involved.
achieve their personal goals; acts on behalf of personal Conflict is involved as a win or lose proposition, with
interests but on behalf of other parties as well. Upon winning equated with status and competence; this is a power
recognising that a conflict exists, the collaborator utilises oriented mode in which you use whatever power seems most
appropriate management methods to manage the conflict. appropriate to win your own position.
This is a win/win posture.
AVOIDER
COMPROMISER
Views conflict as something to be shunned at all costs; a
Assumes that a win/win outcome is not possible and adopts a central theme of this style is hopelessness which results in a
negotiating posture that seeks a small win small lose high degree of frustration for all parties involved. Personal
outcome for both, with persuasion and manipulation goals are usually not met, nor is the interpersonal
dominating the management style. The objective is to find a relationship maintained in this type of conflict. The avoider
compromise, an expedient mutually acceptable solution withdraws from threatening situations; the stance is to leave
which partially satisfies the parties involved. and lose, allowing the other to win.

ACCOMODATOR

Involves maintaining the interpersonal relationship at all

costs, with little or no concern for the personal goals of the
parties involved. Giving in, appeasing and avoiding conflict
are viewed as ways of protecting the relationship. This is a
yield –lose/win posture in which the accommodators desire
to avoid conflict allows the other side to win.
 To Be A Negotiator:
Strategies and Tactics
Lt. General Lazaro Sumbeiywo (rtd.)

Inspired by Rilke’s Letters to a Young Poet, this

Letters to a Young Mediator

book contains a collection of 10 letters, each the
product of deep personal reflection from some
of the great mediators of our time.

This is not a conversation between two people;

there is no one ‘young mediator’ they address
their letters to. This is a collection of letters for an
entire generation of those who have chosen to
give a significant part of their lives to the tenacious
pursuit of peace.

Letters to
a Young Mediator

swisspeace
 Negotiations in a nutshell
(from To be a Negotiator by Lt. Gen. Lazaro Sumbeiywo rtd.)
• Preparation • Tactics
1. Prepare before embarking on negotiations 15. Use temper sparingly
2. Establish your ethics and keep them 16. Do not accept “no” for an answer, or give “no”
3. Establish negotiation modalities before for an answer
starting 17. Be firm, be flexible, and use a friendly tone
4. Agree on the agenda 18. Take away and walk out
19. Mask what you really want
• Strategies 20. Bracket issues you cannot achieve at a particular
5. Focus on the objective, look to the future, do time
not spend time on the trivial 21. Maintain the final line of defense
6. Know what you want, and what the other side
wants
7. Ask directly and clearly what you want; un-
derstand the importance of words and body
language
8. Do not give up anything for nothing
9. Be realistic and rational
10. Have some fallback position
11. Be on top of the situation, take control
12. Protect your negotiating documents
13. Agree on implementation modalities, negotiate
with people who have authority
14. Reality check
 Research agenda in the studies of CT
and PB (& peace process)
• Sources and nature of conflict
– “subjec(vist” and “objec(vist” approach
• Third-party characteris@cs
– Actor – who? impar(ality; neutrality
• Strategies
– Actor – who? Tracks 1, 2, 3; Roles; mul(-tracks
– Comprehensive; complementarity; con(ngency
– Peacemaking, peacebuilding, peacekeeping
(&post-conflict peacebuilding, reconstruc(on &
reconcilia(on)
 Peace negotiations
Third Party
Sceptic Sceptic
opponents opponents

arbitration Supporters
Supporters

Party A Party B
negotiation

Mediation/
Advisory Facilitation Advisory
Board Board

Joint Expert Groups

Back Channels
 Peace Process
• “persistent peace initiatives that develop beyond initial
statements of intent and involve the main antagonists
in a protracted conflict”;
• involve an extensive set of variables;
• peace initiatives – can be formal and informal, public
or private, subject to popular endorsement or
restricted to elite-level agreement, can be sponsored
by external sources or spring from internal sources;
• all fragile, most fail sooner rather than later;
• implementation of accord dependent on political will
of the parties and on international and economic
context.
 General questions about peace and conflict
(especially the self-determination type):

1. How to satisfy demands for, and resistance to, autonomy,

self determination and separation?
2. How to accommodate the needs of the minorities, and
the insecurities of the majorities, in deeply divided
societies?
3. How to identify, or cultivate, moments in which political
rather that military initiatives might be fruitful?
4. How to deal with spoilers, destabilizing actions, & violence
deliberately targeted at derailing peace initiatives?
5. How to deal with former combatants and their weapons?
6. How to reconcile a society with its fraught past?
7. How to realize a peace dividend in terms of jobs, housing,
sustainable development etc.?
 The mediation process
• “Mediation is a process whereby a third party assists two or more parties, with
their consent, to prevent, manage or resolve a conflict by helping them to
develop mutually acceptable agreements. The premise of mediation is that in
the right environment, conflict parties can improve their relationships and move
towards cooperation. Mediation outcomes can be limited in scope, dealing with
specific issue in order to contain or manage a conflict, or can tackle a broad
range of issues in a comprehensive peace agreement.
• Mediation is a flexible but structured undertaking
• An effective mediation process responds to the specificity of the conflict
• Mediation is a specialized activity. Through a professional approach, mediators
and their teams provide a buffer for conflict parties and instill confidence in
the process and a belief that a peaceful resolution is achievable
• The United Nations Guidance for Effective Mediation (www.peacemaker.un.org)
 A comprehensive approach to peace process: Multi-actor, multi-phase, multi-topic
(Mason and Siegfried 2007)

Phases
Informal Contacts Talks about talks Agreement Phase Implementation
Issues

Goal of the - Gain trust to parties - Framework for talks - Stop violence - Implementation of
Mediator - Ripeness - From fighting to - Building trust agreement
- Communication channels negotiating - Common vision - Political bodies and
institutions
Possible - Direct contact to parties - Clarify issues, - Ceasefire agreement - Transitional
milestones - Agreed to talk about talks agenda, venue, - Peace agreement constitution
participants - Referendum
- Elections
Possible activities - Discrete contacts - Shuttle mediation - Negotiation strategy - Post-agreement
of Mediator - “Walking in the parties’ - Coaching - Mediate between mediation
shoes” - Team up with other parties - Monitoring
mediators - Expertise mechanisms

Main Challenges - Labeling of terrorist - Preconditions - Logistics - No longer spotlight

- Confidentiality - Competition among - Democratic - Monitoring
- Personal safety mediators legitimization mechanisms
- Public perception - Human rights/ - “Mediation gaps”
Amnesty
- Power sharing
arrangements
 The USIP Peace Mediation Framework
(Smith and Smock 2008)

1. Assess the con+lict :

a. Understand what the con<lict is about – analyse the history and causes of the
con<lict ; assess positions and interests
b. Understand the actors – analyse the parties to the con<lict ; evaluate civil society and
the populace ; identify international actors ; identify other players
c. Understand the larger context – identify indigenous and international institutions
for managing con<lict ; identify and address characteristics of intractibility
d. Understand sources of power and leverage – identify material resources and parties’
control over them ; assess the relative strength of parties and how it is changing
2. Ensure mediator readiness :
a. Determine what role is appropriate – determine the right mediation role given
backing and resources ; ensure mediation strategy is appropriate to mediator’s
identity
b. Enhance the ability to engage effectively – build credibility ; develop and strengthen
a broad portfolio of skills ; recognize cultural differences
3. Ensure conflict ripeness :
a. Assess ripeness – confirm that parties believe that outright victory is not
achievable ; confirm that parties can deliver on agreements ; confirm that there is
internal political and public support for peace
b. Enhance ripeness – help elite understand costs and benefits ; increase pressure on
elites through accountability ; cultivate leaders who can assume responsibility for
negotiations ; create balance between parties ; change the costs and benefits of the
conflict
c. Take into account the legacies of previous mediation attempts – assess positive and
negative results of past efforts ; consider new sequencing decisions, new settlement
formulas, and new actors

4. Conduct Track-I mediation :

a. Use consultations and pre-negotiations to lay the groundwork – solicit input and
build trust ; build and sustain political support
b. Determine participants – work with viable partners ; manage spoilers ; include
marginalised groups
c. Arrange logistics – provide a safe, effective and well-resourced working
environment ; manage information effectively
d. Develop and execute strategies for advancing negotiations – increase parties’ trust
and confidence ; use multiple tactics to facilitate agreement ; introduce fresh
frameworks ; encourage communication with constituencies ; use different types of
leverage to encourage compromise
e. Engage the public and media – develop channels for public relations
5. Encourage Track-II dialogue :
a. Identify and coordinate with Track-II efforts – ascertain status and
potential of Track-II efforts ; focus on activities that build parties’ capacity
and foster wide support for the process
b. Promote cooperation between tracks – share information and clarify roles ;
reward Track-II efforts that further the Track-I process ; maintain the
independence of Track-II initiatives

6. Construct a peace agreement :

a. Develop a declaration of principles – obtain agreement on basic principles ;
craft broad outlines of a agreement
b. Assemble a peace agreement – determine a drafting process ; translate
principles into legally binding language ; incorporate strategies for
implementation and monitoring
c. Plan for implementation – make the local population stakeholders and
guarantors of the agreement ; use metrics to gauge progress ; design
dispute resolution mechanisms ; use external parties to support
implementation
 UN Guidance for Effective Mediation
• Mediation – somewhere between dialogue
facilitation and more directive third party
intervention
• A voluntary process, with third party providing
structure and clear guidance on the process
• Outcome oriented, but solution not imposed
• ‘Flexibility’ to use other labels
• www.mediationsupportnetwork.net
 1. Preparedness
• Analysis and Strategizing
• Mediator Selection and Mediator Mandate
• Nature and Composition of the Mediation Team
• Capacity Building, Training, and Learning
• Financial and Political Support
• Key lessons
– Need to professionalize mediation
– Need to be more sensitive to local realities
 2. Consent
• Balancing Dialogue and Pressure
– Pressure may come from many sources, i.e. civil
society, neighbouring countries etc
– Imposi<on of content of agreement?
• Informed Consent
– Correc<ng asymmetrical rela<ons – training and
capacity building?
• Key lessons
– Clarify what media<on is and what it is not
– Danger of using too much pressure
 3. Impartiality
• Treating all actors fairly
• Political selection and mandate of mediators
• External pressure on the mediator
• Asymmetric conflicts
• Key lessons
– Share the tasks among different third parties
– Empower and work with local mediators
– Change the contextual factors that hinder
impartial mediation
 4. Inclusivity
• Can contribute to a more durable, legitimate and
locally owned process; but can have problems too
• Inclusivity hindered by the parties at the table
• Inclusivity hindered by choice or mandate of the
mediator
• Inclusivity hindered by context factors i.e. group
on terrorist list
• Key lessons:
– Analysis and capacity building; Time and plurality of
approaches; Coordination of multiple third parties;
Work with civil society
 5. National Ownership
• Implies commitment of conflict parties,
affected communities, & society as a whole
towards peace
• Link to inclusivity
• Content of Agreement – local context/ content
• Balancing local and international approaches
• Key lessons
– Link Track 1 efforts to community-based
approaches
– Support local capacities for peace
 6. International Law and Normative
Frameworks
• Be aware of interna@onal laws and norma@ve
standards
• Cannot endorse peace agreements that
provide amnes@es for genocide, war crimes,
crimes against humanity, viola@ons of human
rights etc.
• Know when to seek legal advice, and use the
advantages of the legal framework
 7. Coherence, Coordination, and
Complementarity of the Mediation Effort
• Multiplicity of actors – international, local,
government, multilateral etc.
• Key lessons
– Use contact group
– Information sharing as a minimal step
 8. Quality Peace Agreements
• Political agreement – path to peace, not end goal
• Must be viewed in relations to the conflict it
addresses, the process, and the peace it achieves
• Is it ‘fair’, ‘wise’, ‘efficient’, & ‘durable’?
• Key lessons
– Inclusion of voices of marginalised group in
agreement
– Communication of peace agreement
– Implementation
 Explanations of why so many peace processes and
peace accords fail to survive, mature, or bring positive
peace include:
1. The weakness of many post-war and post accord states,
many of them poor countries with weak institutions
2. Flaws in the process, which may not have included all the
fundamental issues in disputes, or all the key actors,
thereby prolonging and even extending the dispute
3. The failure of leaders to carry their followers on the
agreement, especially if the benefits expected to flow
from an agreement are disappointing or delayed
4. Failure to implement the disagreement, which sets out
the broad agenda rather than the difficult details
5. The corrosive effects of post-accord violence
6. Failure to deliver the economic buttressing necessary for
post-war reconstruction
7. Emergence of unanticipated developments
 Variables for successes & failures
Özerdem & Mac Ginty

1. Level of symmetry between the parRes.

2. Level of engagement and supporRveness by the internaRonal
community.
3. EffecRveness of confidence building measures.
4. Quality of third party engagement.
5. Ability of the process and accord to deal with security issues.
6. Ability of the process and accord to deal to produce effecRve
governance.
7. Ability of the process and accord to deal with jusRce and legacy
issues.
8. Ability of the process and accord to deal with the poliRcal economy
of peace and conflict.
9. Level of public, gender, and youth parRcipaRon in the process and
accord.
Basic Premises for Peace: Lessons on Peace Processes
from and for Aceh, Mindanao, and Patani

1. Sincerity and willingness of the armed actors to

engage peacefully.
2. Possibility of starting a peace process.
3. A peace process should be inclusive. It should involve
all the necessary actors including the “militant”
groups.
4. The absence of violence is not a prerequisite.
Negotiations are. Successful peace negotiations must
anticipate and manage the problem of continuing
violence.
5. A successful peace process is organic and cumulative.
6. Peace processes are deals, they require trade-offs.
7. During peace negotiations, the primary function of
the leaders is to deliver their own people – they must
persuade their followers to endorse the process and
the decisions.
8. If a peace agreement is to stick, initiatives are needed
to re-integrate members of the security forces and
paramilitary groups into normal society. Such
initiatives must be integrated with moves to address
the needs of the victims of violence.
9. A peace process does not end with the peace accord.
10. Peace is a development issue.
11.Peace and justice are not always compatible
in the peace process.
12.The absence of war is not peace.
13.Indigenous approaches to dispute resolution
are often more appropriate than
international “best practice”.
14.Political elites and international organizations
must find ways to broaden the appeal of
peace process and peace accords.