Price Action Encyclopedi Part 1 - EDIT 6
Price Action Encyclopedi Part 1 - EDIT 6
Price Action Encyclopedi Part 1 - EDIT 6
How market participants perceive and react to information plays a monumental role
in shaping price trends. How the market moves and why it moves is just as important
as where it moves to. Your job as a price action trader is about understanding the
first two and then taking a bet on the third phenomenon.
This is why as a crypto trader, it is important that you have two options, either you
trade only the price action in front of you and have set set-ups that you take
regardless of what happens (which works very well for disciplined traders) or you
form a Higher Time Frame (HTF) bias based on how price reacts to different news.
Example:
False bullish news pushed Bitcoin more than 12% higher and once it was confirmed
to be false, price hardly retraced that move by moving down 5% momentarily. The
reaction of price to the news here was a pivotal hint that the market is indeed bullish
and a bias for traders should be to long.
2. Subjective Valuation:
Assets don't have an intrinsic worth set in stone. So regardless of what
tokenomics a coin has or what profit/earnings ratio a stock has, it has a very limited
effect on the actual price of the asset.
Example:
This should teach you that assets will never have any particular intrinsic value based
on some numbers and the best way to decide an asset’s worth is simply its price.
They're worth what people believe they're worth. As this psychology shifts from one
participant to another, a trend forms. This collective psychology, evolving over time,
leads to the visible price trends on charts.
Example:
You should also note that if everyone expects a price pattern to play out then it
probably won't happen. This is the same as counter-trading sentiment and the basic
logic that you should buy when others are fearful and sell when everyone is greedy.
S/R levels are better understood as zones where a significant amount of buying or
selling activity has historically occurred. These zones are psychological in nature
because they represent the prices at which sentiment and market dynamics have
previously shifted.
The way prices break or react from these levels can give clues about the potential
market action. If a price approaches a resistance level with strong momentum and
high volume, this suggests conviction among buyers, which could lead to a breakout.
But if as shown below, the breakout is with low volume and next to follow through
after the breakout, it could indicate a lack of momentum and increase the chance
that the resistance will hold.
Figure 4.
Basic rule is that breakouts with high volume and momentum are often considered
more valid and likely to result in a sustained move away from the level. If the
breakout occurs with low volume and momentum, it may be a false breakout, and the
price might retreat back below the resistance or above the support level. Technical
indicators can also play a role in reinforcing the strength or weakness of support and
resistance levels. Indicators such as moving averages, volume profiles, and
oscillators can add an extra layer of validation to the significance of these levels. We
will only focus on price action (the most important factor) and maybe a couple of
basic indicators for this chapter.
In summary, support and resistance levels are not just static lines drawn on a chart;
they are dynamic and reflect ongoing market psychology and participant
actions. This is why it is also important to not see S/R as pinpoint levels but as
zones.
Orderflow in Price Action:
Contrary to popular belief, an upward price movement isn't due to more buyers
over sellers or larger buy orders than sell orders. Every transaction requires a
buyer for every seller. The distinction lies in aggressiveness. An uptick in price
reflects heightened buying enthusiasm compared to selling.
Figure 5
We will learn orderflow properly in the following chapters but it is important to note
that for now, every single order in the market has a buyer and a seller, both have set
prices they would like to buy or sell at, but the difference is when one of them is so
eager that they meet the best offer on the other side. For example, if a buyers is so
eager to buy Bitcoin that he meets the selling price on “offer” from the cheapest
seller (he takes the market price and hence market buys) while ignoring the highest
“bid” from the buyers’ side.
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Figure 6: Levels
One thing to understand before we get to charting is that each level must be
thought of as a zone and not one single line. Therefore, you can use HTF charts like
the monthly/weekly to form a bias and trading plans but it’s difficult to take a DAY
TRADE off a weekly level as it is not an exact horizontal line but a zone, a small zone
on the weekly TF might be a large zone on the 4-hour TF.
What does this mean? Before entering a trade you need to calculate position size
and exactly where to place the stop loss. If you follow the above strategy, you’ll not
be able to do that.
Link to position sizing and risk management tutorial: https://bit.ly/2WjqQqk
Figure 7: Support/Resistance
Never blindly long support and short resistance. Below you’ll learn everything
there is to trading levels, for now understand what goes on behind the scenes
and how a level becomes significant. We will rather focus on playing the
support/resistance flip on our levels.
THIS is where your discipline as a trader will get tested. One thing deeply rooted
while trading should be to never blindly place limit orders when trading
from the same side. What this means is we should never blindly long a level that has
acted as support previously as vice versa.
Drawing levels based on Footprint data will be learnt later (P.S. it’s not necessary).
For now remember that they are created due to passive liquidity (limit orders that you
can see on the order book and market orders that are executed instantly, most used
by retail).
For now, we’ll use price action to draw out our horizontal levels, but it is important that
you always think of our levels as areas of interest where bids are placed rather than
simple lines.
Tip 1: Colour code your lines
Try to colour code your lines and use a different thickness for the same. You can use
Red weekly. Blue for Daily and Green for Hourly etc and remember it as RBG. OR if
you don’t like the colours, simply right click and label your lines as such.
REMEMBER each level must be visible on TFs lower and equal to. For example,
a daily level must be visible on the hourly time frame, 4 hourly and daily charts but not
on the weekly chart. Let’s say you are trading the weekly charts, then there is no point
in having the millions of hourly levels visible on it.
Figure 9
First, zoom out to see the individual candles and wicks clearly but include as many
candles as possible on the chart.
An illustration of how I would draw the levels on a weekly chart, arrows show you many
reasons for marking it. Before you start to get overwhelmed with all the levels, just
mark all of them out first. Note the 4 points which make a level
important. Which levels to keep on your chart after this process? The ones which you
want to trade off.
Which levels do you mark out?
Just look for simple support and resistance points on the chart using the
importance roadmap.
Daily levels marked out on the same chart as above. Daily chart also seems to respect
the weekly levels we marked out in the first chart (this is a sign that
you’re doing this right). Always keep in mind to look right to left while marking
your levels.
There can be 100 levels drawn on this chart. Here’s how to further reason the
drawing and importance of your levels:
Figure 12. DASHUSDT 1H chart, just open 7 Sep 2021 1H chart and zoom out
IMPORTANT: Please study the chart above and the commentary and see how a level
loses its importance as the market moves and starts trading in that region. Level L1 is
not not important; a price starts trading there for a while.
Figure 13(A) : A zoomed out 4 hour chart with levels marked out
Figure 14 (B) : A zoomed out 4 hour chart with levels marked out
Let’s assume you’re looking for a trade in the blue box. When you’re confused about
where to place your level. Don’t end up with “analysis-paralysis” and place your level
in the middle of the zone you’re looking at, with the most touches.
Example of tweaking levels using this middle of the zone concept is:
Figure 15: Tweaking levels using this middle of the zone concept
It is obvious you want a level between the 2 dashed lines. These scenarios are
slightly tricky. You must pick a final level (non-dashed line) close to the middle of
the zone. Just go for any one with the most touches.
You still get 4 clean touches with the final pick. The exact middle is not important, don’t
let the imperfection of it upset you.
Remember how you discussed orderflow earlier? S/R flips are just orders being placed
and mitigated. When we get to trading these levels, you’ll learn to think of S/R as zones
and not pitch perfect lines.
Q: When should you not use the mean of the “zone” that we discussed?
A: When price breaks out violently from a range.
In case there’s a violent break of a range high level, price is more likely to dip
only slightly to retest the highs and fly off from the highs rather than the mean. Same
concept for the range breakdowns.
Example:
One final tweak example of how to use slight adjustments to fix up your levels.
A level such as this screams liquidity grab on the retest. Why? Simply because there’s
a lot of sell orders (stop losses on longs + breakout traders looking to short price
losing this level).
This means a Swing Failure Pattern will probably form here to trap them, how
and why do you tweak this level then?
Figure 18. Swing Failure Pattern
Keeping in mind the SFP tutorial, once you are waiting for one to form, this is
how you decide till where the SFP wick could go.
As with any strategy, drawing levels is a skill but also an art. It needs to be refined with
time and practice. The more you trade, you automatically understand certain tweaks
needed to refine your levels.
No one can teach you how to EXACTLY tweak your levels. You will get front ran; you
will get scam wicked but keep following this system and keep reviewing your trades
and you will definitely be a master.
Takeaways
Before we dive deeper into using strategies based on levels drawn. You want
to practise your levels first as areas of interest, areas where price reacts and
nail them down first. Your best judge is always the market, best feedback is always
price action, remember this. You should be able to:
● Identify zones
● Mark level at mean of zone/tweak it as discussed for most touches
Recent price action is the best price action. Look right to left and fix your levels
as per what you expect the price to do upon reaching them. Cannot stress this enough.
These are very effective if traded properly; enter on the first touch of the level
from the other side. Place limit orders for entries.
You always hear that you need to have multiple plans for every single pair.
We’ll learn about another strategy on the same chart with a different plan.
3. One touch: you normally don’t want to trade levels like these unless
there’s very high confluence. You can even use the RSI & MACD for
confluence here.
Important clarification:
Trade entry can be at any level. I’ve categorised those entries into 3 sections
each with their own requirements to actually enter a position.
Stop placement can be any level above the weekly level, here if the 4-hour level above
is flipped to support means our idea for an SFP/Rejection at the weekly level is
completely wrong. Thus, you exit the trade when your idea for entering in invalid.
Target is always first trouble area (FTA) which could be the lower 4 hour level,
but the final target was at blue daily level. If price would have found support at that
level, we would have gotten out while in profit. Normally you want to scale out from
trades at different areas where price could bounce and keep some part of the position
running(on shorts of course).
Price goes much lower than the blue daily level as target, we get out regardless for a
great 4.8R trade, once you’re at target, get out, take profits, no emotions.
NOTE: There’s no specific way for price to “reach” your level. If price rallies into
a level where you want to short, just short, violent price rally into your level means
more people are trapped in the process. This style of trading is very profitable, but you
need to practise drawing those levels and have conviction. Don’t be scared if price
slams into your level, “trading the trend” on LTFs means nothing.
Figure 23. First Trouble Area (FTA)
Figure 24.
We mark out all the levels, even if the chart gets crowded. You need to know all the
trouble spots beforehand and manage your trade carefully if you want to trade levels
like this.
NOTE: Once price moves over an important level, you can move your stop loss up to
below that. If we form a new support, I want price to hold it before reaching target, that
is how you manage longs.
Reasoning is simple, if a level has already behaved as support once, then everyone
is expecting it to do the same again. Market makers will exploit that
to run stops and you want to be on their side as always.
Obvious target at important 4H level. Stop below SFP wicks on a lower time
frame level.
This can either be an isolated event like FTX bankruptcy dump low, or a recurring one
like Last week’s high or last monthly open. These are levels that indicate how the
market is doing with respect to last week, month or when the news was released and
hence buyers/sellers might step up at to defend those levels based on their bias
1. Use the linear chart to get a perspective of how high the run has been.
2. Mark the Monthly levels for each cycle.
Note: We will stick to closes and open as levels. Hence the resistances and support
for various time frames will be the closes and the opens.
The 4 levels to be marked on each time frame are open, close, high low.
Example of Monthly Resistance below.
The monthly linear helps us to determine how big the move has been and if any pull
back occurs, it isn't anything extraordinary considering the move up.
Figure 27. Drawing Monthly High Levels
To further illustrate how to draw the monthly levels, have a look at the previous cycle.
I have marked the previous ATH close. Notice how exactly after a year, a re-test of the
same level happened followed by a Breakout. Levels tend to get re-tested often,
returning to a mean where the buyers weren't able to enter previously.
To be noticed, after the Breakout of this level at end of 2020, the next candle
crossed below the level to claim liquidity.
For now, just notice the same movement after the Breakout candle BELOW the
Breakout level to claim liquidity. We will learn about claiming liquidity later on.
Points to learn
1. Please see how huge the run has been from the previous ATH. This should
prepare you to always understand that any amount of pull back is NOT inorganic,
manipulation, or dumping. If an asset price can climb so high, it should and can
come down to the same degree. A trader shouldn't assume it to be the end of the
asset or asset class.
2.
Monthly linear levels should prepare you to anticipate all kinds of movements.
Coming back to the monthly chart, these levels are what I would consider important
for my trading and to always be aware of how to tackle any movement.
I have labelled the previous:
● ATH level.
● Previous ATH.
● Year open for the current year.
● Current monthly range.
● ATH Monthly resistance.
Note:
1. Depicts the re-test in the previous cycle.
2. Notice how at number 2, we came back to re-test the yearly open. During a
Dump, placing small orders at these levels by assuming that at the year open
re-test, prices could see some demand wouldn't have been a bad bet. So if I
was trading or even holding, these are the Levels I would watch at the Macro.
Bitcoin going to any of these levels shouldn't make you scared or surprise you.
The aim of recognising levels is to be ready to trade when they occur. We will learn
about trading levels later, and find better probability. Please look at the chart and
practice marking these levels on your own.
The Weekly
Now after we have seen how to mark monthly levels, let's move on to the weekly. My
Previous weekly levels are shown, and notice how they are completely different from
the monthly. To reiterate, when we talk about levels, we are talking about the close
and the open.
To keep the charts clean, I have only marked the Levels of close and open. Later we
will also mark the high and the low.
If you see the level marked above, you will see that we have essentially a range where
the market spent a lot of time, about a month... Once we zoom in, we will get a better
idea about how to trade it.
Before we zoom in, let us quickly review how to trade a range
Let's take a look at the Weekly Range. The range shown above is the same as we
have earlier marked, but on a daily
graph for a zoomed in version. The range tutorial graph on the previous page can be
used to trade this range easily.
Notice how easy trading becomes when we know the range.
The only problem you will face here is dealing with deviation and false Break-
outs which we will deal with in the price Action tutorials.
Again, assume that a range will continue to exist forever and just trade it, both
long and short, until it breaks.
I hope the weekly zoomed in levels have shown how to utilise the range. Look at the
number of trades we could have entered by just playing the range.
Of course, Ranges will not occur in a straight line and a straight point. This is
what we need to deal with in future by studying liquidity grabs.
Ranges tend to repeat. A classic example of this move is illustrated in the chart below.
Figure 35: Range
Notice how the current dump from the ATH came back to the same range as we
defined on the weekly. It is common for Ranges to be tested again, and the price to
completely come back in the same range.
1. The above should make it clear that the Dump was not a surprise or anything
to be scared of.
2. The Dump was simple price Action taking place and rotation of price to the
mean. Knowing the above, the range marked and the probability of Ranges to
come back to their levels should prepare you for all kinds of movements, without
fear. Level lost? Prepare for the next level.
4. Confluence
After we have seen how to draw the Levels, let's look at how the confluence of
levels work.
Confluence means a point where multiple reasons for entry/exit exist. If a certain point
in the chart is having levels based in different Time frames, it
can be said that it has a level of confluence.
Here is a graph showing all the important levels I would have on a graph. The Levels
would act as the Ranges that I would be looking at for opportunities and changes in
market structure.
These are Macro structures for the longer term, which means I should be looking at
these in the long term. If prices come to any of these levels, it shouldn't be a surprise.
This is what being prepared means.
I have labelled all the Levels for your convenience. Also, look at the yearly and
monthly opens as an area of high probability re-test. These levels make your view of
seeing the price easier.
You are prepared in advance and NOTHING is a surprise. Instead of wondering where
the price will drop, your view changes to 'This is where it could drop.'
Tip: If you are trading a time frame which doesn't need the higher time frame
levels, you can hide those levels. However, there's a better way to manage your charts
and make them look cleaner.
4.1 The object tree option in Tradingview
Click on the Object View tab and it will show you all the Drawing and indicators
available on your chart. You can choose to hide or unhide the lines and objects you
need/don't need.
Learning the Object Tree feature will help you keep the charts organised and
help in analysis, so you don't have to delete and rearrange things again.
Take the time over the weekend to learn about it. I will share the link to the tutorial of
it, as shared by TradingView. Make objects and play around with this feature.
4.2 Deviation
A brief talk about Deviation. Market always tries to stop retail, this is how it has always
been. This is called a liquidity tap or liquidity grab. The market tries to knock out trades
and orders that are placed at obvious levels and hence this is why the majority is
always wrong.
Example of liquidity grab below.
Look at the Price structure above. A falling wedge, conventionally breaks to the
upside. Maybe retail traders would take an entry at the lower support and
expect a Breakout.
As you can see, the Breakout happened perfectly here. But notice a dip below
the support of the falling wedge.
4.3 Reclaim
I will briefly describe what a reclaim of a level is. Price Action traders look for this action
while deciding if the range has been broken and if they should take a trade for the
higher levels.
A reclaim happens when the price moves past a certain level and pulls back to reclaim
and test the level. The price Action would look as denoted in the charts below. This is
when according to Price Action, an entry can be taken. This is applicable both for longs
and shorts.
I aim to make sure that when this series is complete, it will be a one
stop shop for all trading techniques and education related to price
action. This is my largest project yet and I hope I am able to live up to
the best standards for all my friends and followers on CT. This
community is the reason for all my success and this is my contribution
for all of you.