Introduction

⚫ Any project involves planning, scheduling and controlling a

number of interrelated activities with use of limited resources,
namely, men, machines, materials, money and time.

⚫ The projects may be extremely large and complex such as

construction of a housing , a highway, a shopping complex etc.
⚫ introduction of new products and research and development
projects.

⚫ It is required that managers must have a dynamic planning and

scheduling system to produce the best possible results and also
to react immediately to the changing conditions and make
necessary changes in the plan and schedule.
A convenient analytical and visual technique of PERT and
CPM prove extremely valuable in assisting the managers in
managing the projects.

PERT stands for Project Evaluation and Review

Technique developed during 1950’s. The technique was developed and
used in conjunction with the planning and designing of the Polaris missile
project.

CPM stands for Critical Path Method which was developed by

DuPont Company and applied first to the construction projects in the chemical
industry.
Though both PERT and CPM techniques have similarity in terms of
concepts, the basic difference is; CPM has single time estimate and PERT
has three time estimates for activities and uses probability theory to find
the chance of reaching the scheduled time.
Project management generally consists of three
phases.
Planning:

Planning involves setting the objectives of the project. Identifying

various activities to be performed and determining the requirement of
resources such as men, materials, machines, etc.

The cost and time for all the activities are estimated, and a network diagram is
developed showing sequential interrelationships (predecessor and successor)
between various activities during the planning stage.
Scheduling:

Based on the time estimates, the start and finish times for each activity
are worked out by applying forward and backward pass techniques, critical
path is identified, along with the slack and float for the non-critical paths.
Controlling:

Controlling refers to analyzing and evaluating the actual progress

against the plan. Reallocation of resources, crashing and review of projects
with periodical reports are carried out.
 COMPONENTS of PERT/CPM
NETWORK
PERT / CPM networks contain two major components
i. Activities, and
ii. Events
Activity: An activity represents an action and consumption of
resources (time, money, energy) required to complete a portion of a
project. Activity is represented by an arrow, .

Event: An event (or node) will always occur at the beginning and end of an
activity. The event has no resources and is represented by a circle. The ith
event and jth event are the tail event and head event respectively.
Merge and Burst
Events
One or more activities can start and end simultaneously at an
event .

Preceding and Succeeding Activities

Activities performed before given events are known as preceding activities, and
activities performed after a given event are known as succeeding activities.

Activities A and B precede activities C and D

respectively.
 Dummy Activity
An imaginary activity which does not consume any resource and time is called a
dummy activity. Dummy activities are simply used to represent a connection
between events in order to maintain a logic in the network. It is represented by a
dotted line in a network.
 ERRORS TO BE AVOIDED IN CONSTRUCTING A
NETWORK

a. Two activities starting from a tail event must not have a same end event.
To ensure this, it is absolutely necessary to introduce a dummy activity, as
shown in Figure .

b. Looping error should not be formed in a network, as it represents

performance of activities repeatedly in a cyclic manner, as shown below in
Figure .

c. In a network, there should be only one start event and one ending event
as shown below, in Figure .

d. The direction of arrows should flow from left to right avoiding mixing of
direction as shown in Figure .
 RULES IN CONSTRUCTING A NETWORK
1. No single activity can be represented more than once in a network.
The length of an arrow has no significance.

2. The event numbered 1 is the start event and an event with highest
number is the end event. Before an activity can be undertaken, all
activities preceding it must be completed. That is, the activities must
follow a logical sequence (or – interrelationship) between activities.

3. In assigning numbers to events, there should not be any duplication of

event numbers in a network.

4. Dummy activities must be used only if it is necessary to reduce the

complexity of a network.

5. A network should have only one start event and one end event.
Some conventions of network diagram are shown in Figure
(a), (b), (c), (d) below:
 PROCEDURE FOR NUMBERING THE
EVENTS USING FULKERSON'S
RULE
Step1: Number the start or initial event as 1.

Step2: From event 1, strike off all outgoing activities. This would have
made one or more events as initial events (event which do not have
incoming activities). Number that event as 2.

Step3: Repeat step 2 for event 2, event 3 and till the end event. The end
event must have the highest number

Example 1:
Draw a network for a house construction project. The sequence
of activities with their predecessors are given in Table , below.
The network diagram in Figure shows the procedure relationship between
the activities. Activity A (preparation of house plan), has a start event 1
as well as an ending event 2. Activity B (Construction of house) begins
at event 2 and ends at event 3. The activity B cannot start until activity
A has been completed. Activities C and D cannot begin until activity
B has been completed, but they can be performed simultaneously.
Similarly, activities E and F can start only after completion of
activities C and D respectively. Both activities E and F finish at the end
of event 6.

Example 2: Consider the project given in Table 8.2 and construct a

network diagram. Table : Sequence of Activities for Building
Construction Project
Solution:
The activities C and D have a common predecessor A. The network
representation shown in Figure (a), (b) violates the rule that no two activities can
begin and end at the same events. It appears as if activity B is a predecessor of
activity C, which is not the case. To construct the network in a logical order, it is
necessary to introduce a dummy activity as shown in Figure .
Example 3:
Construct a network for a project whose activities and their predecessor relationship
are given in Table .

Solution: The network diagram for the given problem is shown in

Figure with activities A, B and C starting simultaneously.
 Example 4: Draw a network diagram for
a project given in Table .

Solution: An activity network diagram describing the project is shown

in
Figure , below:
 CRITICAL PATH
ANALYSIS
The critical path for any network is the longest path through the entire
network.

Since all activities must be completed to complete the entire project, the
length of the critical path is also the shortest time allowable for completion of
the project.

Thus if the project is to be completed in that shortest time, all activities on the
critical path must be started as soon as possible.

These activities are called critical activities.

If the project has to be completed ahead of the schedule, then the time
required for at least one of the critical activity must be reduced.

Further, any delay in completing the critical activities will increase the project
duration.
The activity, which does not lie on the critical path, is called non-critical
activity.

These non-critical activities may have some slack time.

The slack is the amount of time by which the start of an activity may be
delayed without affecting the overall completion time of the project.

But a critical activity has no slack.

To reduce the overall project time, it would require more resources (at
extra cost) to reduce the time taken by the critical activities to complete.
 Scheduling of Activities: Earliest Time (TE) and
Latest
Before the critical path in a network is determined, it is necessary to find
Time(TL)
the earliest and latest time of each event to know the earliest expected
time (TE) at which the activities originating from the event can be started
and to know the latest allowable time (TL) at which activities terminating
at the event can be completed.

Forward Pass Computations (to calculate Earliest, Time TE)

Step 1: Begin from the start event and move towards the end event.

Step 2: Put TE = 0 for the start event.

Step 3: Go to the next event (i.e node 2) if there is an incoming activity for event 2,
add calculate TE of previous event (i.e event 1) and activity time.

Note: If there are more than one incoming activities, calculate TE for all incoming
activities and take the maximum value. This value is the TE for event 2.

Step 4: Repeat the same procedure from step 3 till the end event.
 Backward Pass Computations (to calculate Latest Time
TL)
Procedure :

Step 1: Begin from end event and move towards the start event. Assume that
the direction of arrows is reversed.

Step 2: Latest Time TL for the last event is the earliest time. TE of the last
event.

Step 3: Go to the next event, if there is an incoming activity, subtract the

value of TL of previous event from the activity duration time. The arrived
value is TL for that event. If there are more than one incoming activities,
take the minimum TE value.

Step 4: Repeat the same procedure from step 2 till the start event.
 DETERMINATION OF FLOAT AND SLACK
TIMES
As discussed earlier, the non – critical activities have some slack or float.
The float of an activity is the amount of time available by which it is
possible to delay its completion time without extending the overall
project completion time.
tij = duration of activity
TE = earliest expected time TL = latest allowable time
ES ij = earliest start time of the activity EFij = earliest finish time of the activity
LSij = latest start time of the activity LF ij = latest finish time of the activity
Total Float TFij: The total float of an activity is the difference between the
latest start time and the earliest start time of that activity.

TFij = LS ij – ES ij ....................(1)
or
TFij = (TL – TE) – t ij …………..(ii)
Free Float FFij: The time by which the completion of an activity can be
delayed from its earliest finish time without affecting the earliest start
time of the succeeding activity is called free float.

FF ij = (Ej – Ei) – tij ....................(3)

FFij = Total float – Head event slack

Independent Float IFij: The amount of time by which the start of an

activity can be delayed without affecting the earliest start time of any
immediately following activities, assuming that the preceding activity has
finished at its latest finish time.

IF ij = (Ej – Li) – tij ....................(4)

IFij = Free float – Tail event slack Where tail event slack = Li –
Ei

The negative value of independent float is considered to be

zero.
 Critical Path:
After determining the earliest and the latest scheduled times for various
activities, the minimum time required to complete the project is
calculated. In a network, among various paths, the longest path which
determines the total time duration of the project is called the critical path.
The following conditions must be satisfied in locating the critical path of a
network.

An activity is said to be critical only if both the conditions are satisfied.

1. TL – TE = 0
2. TLj – tij – TEj = 0
Example :
A project schedule has the following characteristics as shown in Table

i. Construct PERT network.

ii. Compute TE and TL
for each activity.
iii. Find the critical path.
(i) From the data given in the problem, the activity network is constructed
as shown in Figure given below
 (ii) To determine the critical path, compute the earliest time TE and
latest time TL for each of the activity of the project. The calculations of
TE and TL are as follows:,
To calculate TE for all To calculate TL for all
activities activities
TE1 = 0
TE2 = TE1 + t1, 2 = 0 + 4 = 4 TL10 = TE10 = 22
TE3 = TE1 + t1, 3 = 0 + 1 =1 TL9 = TE10 – t9,10 = 22 – 7 = 15 TL8 =
TE4 = max (TE2 + t2, 4 and TE3 + t3, 4) TE10 – t8, 10 = 22 – 5 = 17
= max (4 + 1 and 1 + 1) = max (5, 2) TL7 = TE8 – t7, 8 = 17 – 2 = 15
= 5 days TL6 = TE8 – t6, 8 = 17 – 1 = 16
TE5 = TE3 + t3, 6 = 1 + 6 = 7 TL5 = min (TE6 – t5, 6 and TE7 – t5, 7)
TE6 = TE5 + t5, 6 = 7 + 4 = 11 = min (16 – 4 and 15 –8) = min (12, 7)
TE7 = TE5 + t5, 7 = 7 + 8 = 15 = 7 days
TE8 = max (TE6 + t6, 8 and TE7 + t7, 8) TL4 = TL9 – t4, 9 = 15 – 5 =10
= max (11 + 1 and 15 + 2) = max (12, 17) TL3 = min (TL4 – t3, 4 and TL5 – t3, 5 )
= 17 days = min (10 – 1 and 7 – 6) = min (9, 1)
TE9 = TE4 + t4, 9 = 5 + 5 = 10 = 1 day
TE10 = max (TE9 + t9, 10 and TE8 + t8, 10) TL2 = TL4 – t2, 4 = 10 – 1 = 9
= max (10 + 7 and 17 + 5) = max (17, TL1 = Min (TL2 – t1, 2 and TL3 – t1, 3)
22) = Min (9 – 4 and 1 – 1) = 0
= 22 days
(iii) From the Table , we observe that the
activities 1 – 3, 3 – 5, 5 – 7,7 – 8 and 8 – 10
are critical activities as their floats are zero.
 PROJECT EVALUATION REVIEW TECHNIQUE, (PERT)

In the critical path method, the time estimates are assumed to be known
with certainty. In certain projects like research and development, new
product introductions, it is difficult to estimate the time of various
activities.
Hence PERT is used in such projects with a probabilistic method using three
time estimates for an activity, rather than a single estimate, as shown in Figure
8.22.
Optimistic time tO :
It is the shortest time taken to complete the activity.
It means that if everything goes well then there is
more chance of completing the activity within this
time.

Most likely time tm:

It is the normal time taken to complete an activity, if
the activity were frequently repeated under the same
conditions.

Pessimistic time tp:

It is the longest time that an activity would take to
complete. It is the worst time estimate that an
activity would take if unexpected problems are faced.
 Taking all these time estimates into consideration, the expected
time
of an activity is arrived at.

The average or mean (ta) value of the

activity duration is given by,

The variance of the activity time is

calculated using the formula,

Probability for Project Duration

The probability of completing the

project within the scheduled time (Ts)
or contracted time may be obtained by
using the standard normal deviate
where Te is the expected time of project
completion.
Probability of completing the project
within the scheduled time is,
 Example
An R & D project has a list of tasks to be performed whose time estimates
are given in the Table , as follows.

a. Draw the project network.

b. Find the critical path.
c. Find the probability that the project is completed in 19 days. If the
probability is less than 20%, find the probability of completing it in 24
days.
Time expected for each activity is
calculated using the formula (5):
Similarly, the expected
time is calculated for all the
activities.

The variance of activity time

is calculated using the formula
(6).
Similarly, variances of all
the activities are calculated.
Construct a network
diagram:

calculate the time earliest (TE) and time Latest (TL) for all the
activities.

From the network diagram Figure , the critical path is identified

as 1-4, 4-6, 6-7, with a project duration of 22 days.
The probability of completing the project within 19 days is given by, P (Z<
Z0)
To find Z0 ,

we know, P (Z <Z Network Model 0) = 0.5 – z (1.3416) (from normal tables, z (1.3416) =
0.4099)
= 0.5 – 0.4099
= 9.01%
0.0901 Thus, the probability of completing the R & D project in 19 days is
9.01%.
Since the probability of completing the project in 19 days is less than 20% As
in question, we find the probability of completing it in 24 days.
 COST ANALYSIS
The two important components of any activity are the cost and time. Cost is
directly proportional to time and vice versa.

For example, in constructing a shopping complex, the expected time of

completion can be calculated using the time estimates of various activities. But if
the construction has to be finished earlier, it requires additional cost to complete
the project. We need to arrive at a time/cost trade-off between total cost of
project and total time required to complete it.
Normal time:
Normal time is the time required to complete the activity at normal conditions and
cost.
Crash time:
Crash time is the shortest possible activity time; crashing more than the normal
time will increase the direct cost.
Cost Slope
Cost slope is the increase in cost per unit of
time saved by crashing. A linear cost curve is shown in Figure 8.27.
 Example

An activity takes 4 days to complete at a normal cost of Rs. 500.00. If it is possible

to complete the activity in 2 days with an additional cost of Rs. 700.00, what is the
incremental cost of the activity?

Incremental Cost or Cost Slope

It means, if one day is reduced we have to spend Rs. 100/- extra per day.

Project Crashing
Procedure for crashing
Step1: Draw the network diagram and mark the Normal time and Crash time.
Step2: Calculate TE and TL for all the activities. Step3: Find the critical path

and other paths.

Step 4: Find the slope for all activities and rank them in ascending order.
 Step 5: Establish a tabular column with required field.

Step 6: Select the lowest ranked activity; check whether it is a critical activity.
If so,crash the activity, else go to the next highest ranked activity.
Note: The critical path must remain critical while crashing.
Step 7: Calculate the total cost of project for each crashing
Step 8: Repeat Step 6 until all the activities in the critical path are fully
crashed.
Example

The following Table

8.13 gives the activities of a construction project and other data.

If the indirect cost is Rs. 20 per day, crash the activities to find
the minimum duration of the project and the project cost
associated.
 Solution

From the data provided in the table, draw the network diagram (Figure
8.28) and find the critical path.

From the diagram, we observe that

the critical path is 1-2-5 with project
duration of 14 days

The cost slope for all activities and their

rank is calculated as shown in Table 8.14
The available paths of the network are listed down in Table
8.15 indicating the sequence of crashing (see Figure 8.29).

The sequence of crashing and

the total cost involved is
given in Table 8.16 Initial
direct cost
= sum of all normal costs
given
= Rs. 490.00
Activity Project Critical Path Direct Cost in (Rs.) Indirect Total
Crashed Duration Cost in Cost in
(Rs.) (Rs.)
- 14 1-2-5 490 14 x 20 = 770
280

1 – 2(2) 10 1–2–5 490 + (2 x 15) + (2 x 10 x 20 = 970

2 – 5(2) 1–3–4–5 100) + (1 x 10) + (2 x 200
2 – 4(1) 1–2–4–5 20) = 770
3 – 4(2)

It is not possible to crash more than 10 days, as all the activities in

the critical path are fully crashed. Hence the minimum project
duration is 10 days with the total cost of Rs. 970.00.
Assignment
a. Draw the project network diagram.
b. Calculate the length and variance of the critical path.
c. What is the probability that the jobs on the critical path can
be completed in 41 days?