Soap Operas

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2012, 4(4): 1–31
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/app.4.4.1
Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil†
By Eliana La Ferrara, Alberto Chong, and Suzanne Duryea*
We estimate the effect of television on fertility in Brazil, where soap

operas portray small families. We exploit differences in the timing
of entry into different markets of Globo, the main novela producer.
Women living in areas covered by Globo have significantly lower
fertility. The effect is strongest for women of lower socioeconomic
status and in the central and late phases of fertility, consistent with
stopping behavior. The result does not appear to be driven by selec-
tion in Globo entry. We provide evidence that novelas, and not just
television, affected individual choices, based on children’s naming
patterns and novela content. (JEL J13, J16, L82, O15, Z13)
I n the early 1990s, after more than 30 years of expansion of basic schooling, over
50 percent of 15 year olds in Brazil scored at the lowest levels of the literacy
portion of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), indicat-
ing that they could not perform simple tasks, such as locating basic information
within a text. People with 4 or fewer years of schooling accounted for 39 percent
of the adult population in the urban areas, and nearly 73 percent in rural areas as
measured by the 2000 census. On the other hand, the share of households owning a
television set had grown from 8 percent in 1970 to 81 percent in 1991, and remained
approximately the same 10 years later. The spectacular growth in television viewer-
ship in the face of slow increases in education levels characterizes Brazil as well as
many other developing countries. Most importantly, it suggests that a wide range
of messages and values, including important ones for development policy, have the
potential to reach households through the screen as well as through the classroom.
This paper examines the effect of three decades of expansion of commercial tele-
vision on fertility patterns in Brazil. Fertility is an interesting dimension of develop-
ment to explore in the context of Brazil. In fact, this country experienced a dramatic
drop in fertility in the past 40 years. The total fertility rate was 6.3 in 1960, 5.8 in
* La Ferrara: Bocconi University, Via Sarfatti 25, 20136, Milan, Italy and Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for
Economic Research (IGIER) (e-mail: [email protected]); Chong: University of Ottawa, Faculty of
Social Sciences, 550 Cumberland St., Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6N5 (e-mail: [email protected]); Duryea:
Inter-American Development Bank, 1300 New York Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20577 (e-mail: suzanned@
iadb.org). We thank two anonymous referees, Elsa Artadi, Abigail Barr, Francesco Billari, Paula Bustos, Stefano
DellaVigna, Erica Field, Andrea Ichino, Tommy Murphy, Hugo Nopo, Ben Olken, Ugo Panizza, Michele Pellizzari,
and seminar participants at Bocconi University, Duke University, Harvard University, New York University, Oxford
University, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, University of Bologna, University of Zurich, CEPR 2007 Development
Economics Conference, and BREAD 2007 workshop in Princeton for helpful comments. Silvia Redaelli, Enestor
Dos Santos Jr, Ted Enamorado, Daniella Kobayashi, Gianmarco Leon, Vanessa Rios, Victoria Rodriguez, and
Simone Lenzu provided excellent research assistance. This document reflects the opinions of the authors and does
not represent the opinions of the Inter-American Development Bank nor its Board of Directors.
†
To comment on this article in the online discussion forum, or to view additional materials, visit the article page
at http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/app.4.4.1.
1
2 American Economic Journal: applied economics october 2012
1970, 4.4 in 1980, 2.9 in 1991, and 2.3 in 2000.1 It is noteworthy that this decline
was not the result of deliberate government policy. In Brazil no official population
control policy was enacted by the government and, for a period of time, advertising
of contraceptive methods was even illegal. The change therefore originated from a
combination of supply factors related to the availability of contraception and lower
desired fertility. In this paper we focus on the latter and investigate one of the chan-
nels that may have led Brazilians to desire smaller family sizes. While there were
certainly important changes to the structure of the Brazilian economy associated
with fertility decline, in this paper we focus on television as a vehicle for shaping
individual preferences toward fewer births.
We are interested in the effect of exposure to one of the most pervasive forms of
cultural communication in Brazilian society, soap operas or novelas. Historically, the
vast majority of the Brazilian population, regardless of social class, has watched the
8 pm novela. In the last decades, one group, Rede Globo, has had a virtual monopoly
over the production of Brazilian novelas. Our content analysis of 115 novelas aired
by Globo in the two time slots with the highest audience between 1965 and 1999
reveals that 72 percent of the main female characters (age 50 and lower) had no
children at all, and 21 percent had only one child. This is in marked contrast with the
prevalent fertility rates in Brazilian society over the same period.
To identify the effects on fertility of exposure to this kind of family values, we
exploit information on the timing of Globo entry into different areas. Our key inde-
pendent variable is a dummy that captures whether an area receives the Globo signal
in a given year, and is constructed from information on the location and radial reach
of Globo broadcasting and retransmitting stations in every year.
To measure fertility we use individual level data from the 1991 census and build a
retrospective history of births over the period 1979–1991 for women aged 15 to 49.
We estimate the likelihood that a woman gives birth in a given year as a function of
the availability of Globo signal in the area where the woman lives, plus time varying
controls, area, and time fixed effects. Ceteris paribus, Globo coverage is associated
with a decrease in the probability of giving birth of 0.5 percentage points, which is
5 percent of the mean. The magnitude of this effect is comparable to that associ-
ated with an increase of 1.6 years in women’s education. The (negative) effect of
Globo exposure is stronger for households with lower education and wealth, as one
would expect given that these households are relatively less likely to get information
from written sources or to interact with peers that have small family sizes. There is
also considerable heterogeneity along the age dimension. Interestingly, the effect of
Globo coverage is insignificant for women aged 15–24, and is quantitatively larger
and significant for women aged 25–34 (a decrease of 6 percent of the mean prob-
ability of giving birth for this age group), and for women aged 35–44 (a decrease
of 11 percent of the mean). This is consistent with the demographic literature on
Brazil, which has highlighted how the decline in fertility occurred mainly through
the stopping of childbearing and not through delaying first births.
1
Source: Lam and Marteleto (2005).
Vol. 4 No. 4 la ferrara et al.: soap operas and fertility 3
The decade between 1980 and 1991 was the period of most rapid expansion of the
Globo network. The fraction of women reached by the Globo signal rose from 0.45
in 1980 to 0.92 in 1991. Our estimates suggest that, ceteris paribus, this expansion
can account for about 7 percent of the reduction in the probability of giving birth
over this period, which declined from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.08 in 1991 for women in
our sample.
In the last part of the paper, we discuss the extent to which these results may be
interpreted as related to television viewing per se, or also to the type of programs
(novelas) broadcast by Globo. We find evidence consistent with the idea that nove-
las did play a role in family decisions, including those related to fertility. Our first
piece of evidence comes from naming patterns among school-aged children. Using
administrative data on a random sample of Minimally Comparable Areas (AMCs),
we find that the parents living in areas that are reached by Globo are significantly
more likely to name their children after the main characters of novelas aired in the
year in which the children are born. In particular, we estimate the probability that
the 20 most popular names chosen by parents for their newborns in a given metro-
politan area include one or more names of the main characters of novelas aired in
the year in which the child was born. This probability is 33 percent if the area where
parents lived received the Globo signal and only 8.5 percent if it did not, a statisti-
cally significant difference. Since novela names tend to be very idiosyncratic in
Brazil, we take this evidence as suggestive of a strong link between novela content
and behavior.
Our second piece of evidence regarding the role of content exploits variation in
novela plots across years, as well as variation in the potential extent of identification
between viewers and novelas’ main characters. We find that decreases in fertility
were stronger in years immediately following novelas that portrayed messages of
upward social mobility, consistent with the desire to conform with behavior that
leads to positive life outcomes. Also, we find that the effect of Globo availability in
any given year was stronger for women whose age was closer to that of the main
female characters portrayed that year. This “frame salience” effect suggests that
Globo programming had an impact on fertility choices partly because it portrayed a
reality with which Brazilian viewers could easily identify.
A key challenge for our identification strategy is the possibility that Globo pres-
ence may be correlated with unobserved determinants of fertility. Because we
employ area fixed effects in all regressions, the relevant concern is whether Globo
entry may be correlated with pre-existing fertility trends. We address this issue in
several ways. First, we regress fertility on a set of dummies going from nine years
before Globo entry to nine years after. The results are displayed in Figure 4 (dis-
cussed below) and show that there is no decline in fertility before the year in which
Globo enters, while fertility sharply declines one year after Globo enters. Second,
using data from the 1970 census, we show that, after controlling for the same char-
acteristics we use in our benchmark regression, the year of Globo entry is not corre-
lated with the initial fertility level. Third, we conduct a series of placebo regressions
and find that future Globo entry in an area does not predict current fertility; ran-
domly generated years of Globo entry do not predict fertility; and Globo presence in
neighboring areas does not predict local fertility. Finally, as we discuss in Section V,
our results on content exploit variation within area-year or across years in a way that
is intrinsically non-monotonic, and it would be difficult to explain those results as
originating from trends.
Our paper is related to two strands of literature. The first is the literature on the
determinants of fertility, with particular reference to the role of television in Latin
America. We shall not review this literature here, as we discuss it in Section I in the
context of Brazilian novelas. It should be observed that with respect to these con-
tributions, which are mostly sociological and based on case studies, our work is the
first attempt to identify a causal link with econometric techniques using a nationally
representative dataset.
The second strand of literature relates to the effects of the media on social and
political outcomes. Some of this literature studies the role of newspapers and
radio as mechanisms of accountability for politicians (Besley and Burgess 2002;
Stromberg 2004), and the effects of the media on voters’ behavior (Gentzkow 2006;
DellaVigna and Kaplan 2007). Other studies investigate the effects of television
on social—as opposed to political—behavior, in particular, children’s school per-
formance (Gentzkow and Shapiro 2008) and adults’ participation in social activi-
ties and trust (Olken 2009). Related to the topic of our paper, a recent contribution
by Jensen and Oster (2009) estimates the impact that the entry of cable TV had
on subjective measures of female autonomy, school enrollment, and fertility. Our
analysis differs from theirs in two respects. The first is the breadth of the area and
time period covered. Jensen and Oster (2009) use survey data on 180 rural villages
in India for the years 2001–2003. We consider the universe of Brazil’s municipal
areas from the 1970s to the early 1990s. This allows us to look at the long-run
impact of TV viewing on fertility. At the same time, the census data we use does not
contain information on attitudes. The second difference with respect to Jensen and
Oster (2009)—and to most of the above cited literature—is that they do not exploit
information on the content of media programs. Our results suggest that what mat-
ters is not only television viewing, but also viewing a set of programs (novelas) that
contain certain messages and are framed in a way that makes it easy for the viewers
to directly relate to the situations portrayed.
Two recent papers have explored the role of media content.2 One is the paper by
Dahl and DellaVigna (2009), who focus on the short-run effects of movie violence
on crime. The second is the paper by Paluck (2009), who estimates the effects on
beliefs and norms of a radio soap opera featuring messages of intergroup tolerance
in Rwanda. Our work shares a similar motivation as Paluck’s, in that we are also
interested in the possibility that media programs may become vehicles of develop-
ment policy.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. In Section I, we provide some
information on Brazilian novelas and on their main producer, Rede Globo. Sections II
and III illustrate, respectively, our empirical strategy and the data. Section IV
2
Another paper that indirectly suggests a role of content, but in the form of advertising, is that of Baker and
George (2010), which exploits the spread of television across markets in the United States in the 1950s to show that
advertising increased household debt for durable goods.
contains our econometric results. Section V discusses the interpretation of our

results in terms of TV exposure and media content. Finally, Section VI concludes.
I. Background on Brazilian Novelas
Television has played a central role for the functioning and reproduction of con-
temporary Brazilian society, as well as in the process of articulating new behavioral
patterns in the country (Faria and Potter 1999). In the span of three decades, expo-
sure to television messages rose from zero to universal in urban areas and reached
almost half of the households in rural areas. One of the reasons for the massive
influence of television in the country is the strength of its oral tradition. In the early
1990s, after more than 30 years of expansion of basic schooling, adult literacy had
reached only 80 percent (Faria and Potter 1999). Ten years later, people with 4 or
fewer years of schooling accounted for 39 percent of the adult population in the
urban areas, and 73 percent in rural areas.3 Another characteristic of the country that
contributes to the impact of television is the high rate of geographical, occupational,
and social mobility. In this context, television helps give a sense of belonging (Faria
and Potter 1999). The effect of television on values and attitudes is by no means
confined to urban areas, but also reaches remote communities in the Amazon, induc-
ing, among other things, a reorientation of beliefs on the role of women in society
toward greater autonomy (Kottak 1990).
Rede Globo.—Television became a mass medium in Brazil earlier than in most

developing countries. The military government in power in 1964 saw the potential
of television as a tool for integrating the country, creating a national identity, devel-
oping markets, and controlling political information. The military further encour-
aged the expansion of television by subsidizing credit for set sales and by promoting
the growth of one specific network to encourage national production. Rede Globo,
selected as the privileged partner, began functioning in 1965 and quickly became the
leading national network. Today, Globo is the fourth biggest commercial network in
the world, after ABC, CBS, and NBC, with a coverage area of 98.4 percent of the
municipalities in Brazil, reaching over 183 million Brazilians.4
For the purpose of our identification strategy, it is important to understand how
the expansion of Rede Globo occurred. During the military regime of General Joao
Baptista Figueredo (1978–1985), the concessions of television networks followed
clientelistic, political, and ideological criteria. The dictator had the absolute power
to give licenses for radio and television stations. Although this law was changed to
put the congress in charge of approving licenses, the clientelistic criterion was not
abandoned (Lima 2001). The media played a central role for the military regime. As
recognized by several authors, the regime put a strong emphasis on national integra-
tion and the media were a key vehicle for cultural, political, and economic integra-
tion. During that period the association between the government and Rede Globo
was clear (Miguel 2001).
3
Authors’ calibrations based on the 2000 Census for the population aged 18 and older.
4
Source: http://redeglobo.globo.com.
The government of President Jose Sarney (1985–1990), the first elected govern-
ment after the fall of the military dictatorship, provides a good example on how
the clientelistic provision of licenses persisted. In 1989, there was a constitutional
amendment to increase the government term from four to five years. During the
two years before, the government gave a large number of TV and radio licences
to companies associated with congressmen who later voted in favor of the consti-
tutional amendment (Costa and Brener 1997). A similar situation occurred during
the first mandate of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995–1998), when the
congress was about to vote a constitutional amendment to approve reelection. Again
a large number of licenses for retransmission stations were given to firms associated
with congressmen (Lima and Capparelli 2004). The instrumental use of licenses for
clientelistic and political goals helps our identification strategy in that it mitigates
concerns that Globo entry may be driven by fertility trends.
Obviously, political clientelism and a solid marketing strategy had to be comple-
mented with a viable, quality product. Such product was the novelas. Presently a
typical novela is watched by anywhere between 60 and 80 million viewers. The
reason for the enormous success of this television format can be traced to three
aspects. First, novelas are set up in easily recognizable locations and deal with the
daily life of Brazilians, so that viewers can relate to the story. Second, novelas use
a colloquial language, a typical middle-class setup, and often include an element of
social mobility that is appealing to viewers. Third, the network spares no expense in
order to produce novelas of the highest technical and artistic quality. In fact, to date,
each episode of an average novela costs around $125,000, which is about 15 times
more than the production costs of the other Latin American novela powerhouse, the
Mexican Televisa (de Melo 1988).
Fertility Decline in Brazil.—As mentioned in the introduction, in a few decades

fertility fell rapidly in Brazil, with the total fertility rate (TFR) declining by over
50 percent from 1970 to 1990. With the military government far more interested in
populating remote areas to protect borders than in organizing and promoting fam-
ily planning programs, Brazil has often been described as an ideal environment for
exploring specific determinants of fertility decline.
A large demographic literature has examined the proximate determinants of fer-
tility. High rates of female sterilization have played a role as a main proximate
determinant, along with increased use of the birth control pill (Merrick and Berquó
1983; Rutenberg, Ochoa, and Arruda 1987). The rank of sterilization as a preferred
method of contraception is related to institutional policies encouraging the delivery
of births by cesarean section as well as government propaganda in the late 1960s,
which warned of the dangers of the birth control pill. The role of abortion, illegal in
Brazil, is less clear.
The timing of births over the life cycle has also been explored in detail. Changes
in the starting age of fertility have been negligible, related both to relatively stable
marital patterns as well as persistently high rates of adolescent fertility. An increased
spacing of births has contributed to the overall decline, although the stopping of
childbirth at younger ages has been found to be more important (Martine 1996;
Flores and Nuñez 2003). While the increase in education explored by Lam and
Duryea (1999) can explain a large share of the overall decline, none of the afore-
mentioned factors replicate the intertemporal and interspatial pace of the decline
satisfactorily. Additionally, these studies typically do not address the underlying
forces driving the higher demand for contraceptives or education.
Novelas and Fertility.—One of the ideas advanced in sociological and commu-

nication studies is that there may be a link between the diffusion of television, and
specifically of novelas, and fertility decline (e.g., Vink 1988). Brazilian novelas
are rather different from stereotypical Latin American telenovelas, because of the
high quality of their plots and of their making. Since military-imposed censorship
was in effect during most of the developmental period of the novela, a number of
important writers started to write screen plots for Rede Globo. Several of them
were having political problems with the military government. These authors saw
the opportunity of employment in the cultural industry as a way to fight dictator-
ship through the reinforcement of new ideals in their plots. In addition to freedom,
recurrent themes included criticism of religious and traditional values; consump-
tion of luxury goods; the portrayal of wealthy families; the display of new life-
styles; the circulation of modern ideas, such as female emancipation in the work
sphere; the female pursuit of pleasure and love, even if through adultery; display
of homosexuality; criticisms to machismo; and emphasis on individualism (Rios-
Neto 2001, Fadul 1999).
Interestingly, family planning and population control were not explicitly
addressed by Brazilian novelas. Until the late 1970s, the government was reluctant
to adopt population control policies. Even advertising of contraception methods was
considered illegal (McDonough and Sousa 1981). Still, novelas in Brazil were, and
still are, loaded with material directly or indirectly relevant to family size prefer-
ences. Television reiterates the disclosure of a very specific model of family—small,
beautiful, white, healthy, urban, middle and upper-middle class consumerist family.
Novelas have been a powerful medium through which the small family has been
idealized. On the one hand, in many instances the content of the story is related to
the urban middle class of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo spreading its behavioral pat-
terns. On the other hand, the small family may result from the constraints imposed
by the plot. In Brazilian novelas the drama typically revolves around four or five
families. In order to keep the number of characters manageable, no family can be
very large.
The findings of an experimental focus group discussion illustrate this point.
Herzog (1994) asked the group subjects, adult women of middle and lower-class
backgrounds, to portray the families that are more frequently displayed on televi-
sion by using available photographs, drawings, and printed material. They asked
the same subjects to portray the family of common people using the same material.
The results were clear. Television families are small, rich, and happy. The families
portrayed as common people are poor, contain more children, and the faces reveal
unhappiness.
To sum up, constant exposure to smaller, less-burdened television families, may
have created a preference for fewer children and greater sensitivity to the opportu-
nity costs of raising children (Faria and Potter 1999).
II. Empirical Strategy
In this paper, we test the conjecture originally advanced by the sociological litera-
ture. We shall do so by combining information on fertility with information on the
timing of Rede Globo penetration in different areas of Brazil.
We estimate the probability that a woman gives birth in a given year as a func-
tion of individual controls and Globo presence. Using the 1991 Brazilian Census,
we build a retrospective history of a woman’s fertility for the previous 12 years. We
thus have 13 observations (years) for each woman in childbearing age. We estimate
the following linear probability model:
(1) yijt= Xijt β + γ Gjt+ μj+ λt+ εijt,
where y ijtis equal to 1 if a woman i living in area j gives birth to a child in year t ; Gjt
is a dummy equal to 1 if area j received the signal of Rede Globo at least one year
prior to year t (to account for the length of pregnancy); Xijtis a set of time-varying
controls at the individual and at the AMC level; μjare AMC fixed effects and λtare
year fixed effects. By adding area fixed effects (μj ), we control for time-invariant
unobserved characteristics that affect fertility and may also be correlated with the
timing of Globo entry. The time dummies instead capture the secular (declining)
trend in fertility that is common to all areas. Our identifying assumption is that,
conditional on area and time fixed effects and on the time-varying controls X ijt , the
year of Globo entry is orthogonal to the error term. We shall test the plausibility of
this assumption in Section IVB. In all regressions our standard errors are clustered
by AMC.
We shall estimate (1) both for the full sample of women aged 15–49 and for
different age brackets. We also test for the presence of heterogeneous effects on
the impact of Globo according to socioeconomic status and estimate the interacted
specification:
(2) yijt= Xijt β + γ Gjt+ δ (Gjt  × xijt) + μj+ λt+ εijt ,
where xijtis, alternatively, education and wealth.

We then consider if exposure to television during different periods of a woman’s
life leads to different fertility outcomes. For this purpose, we modify our estimating
equation as follows:
yijt= Xijt β + γ1 N  10−19

(3) ijt  + ⋯ + γ4 N  40−49
ijt  + μj+ λt+ εijt ,
where N ijt 
  10−19 is the number of years woman i living in area j at time t was exposed
to Globo programs at ages 10–19, 20–29, and so on in 10-year brackets until
age 40–49.
There are two potential sources of endogeneity in the timing of Globo entry into
different locations. The first is that the Ministry of Telecommunications may have
used selective criteria in awarding licenses. As we explained in Section I, the consid-
erations underlying the Ministry’s choices were mostly linked to patronage vis-à-vis
influential Brazilian families, and with no obvious link to local fertility patterns. A
second concern is that because Globo is a commercial television producer, it may
have chosen to enter wealthier locations first, as the latter would yield higher prof-
its from advertising. For this reason, in our regressions, we control for education,
wealth, and for an “index of potential consumption” used by Globo to assess the
attractiveness of new markets. Furthermore, we explicitly assess the potential selec-
tion on our variables of interest and conduct a number of falsification tests.
We also test the robustness of our results to aggregating variables at the AMC
level and using a different measure of fertility, i.e., the number of live births reported
per woman.
Finally, in the last set of regressions, we explore the extent to which our results
can be linked to novela viewing rather than simply television viewing. We adopt two
strategies. First, we run ancillary regressions of the prevalence of novela characters’
first names as a function of Globo presence. Second, we estimate a modified version
of (2), where Globo presence is interacted, alternatively, with two measures of how
“appealing” novelas were in different years or for different women. One measure cap-
tures how close in age woman i is to the main female character of novelas broadcast in
year t − 1 (the lag accounts for the pregnancy period). Another measure is a dummy
for whether at least one novela in t − 1 had an explicit social mobility message.
III. Data
A. Fertility
For the main part of our analysis, we rely on a dependent variable constructed
from the 1991 census. This is a dummy BIRTHijtequal to 1 if woman i living in area
j gave birth in year t, with t ranging from 1979 to 1991. As we show in Figure 1, this
is the period over which the bulk of Globo’s expansion occurred.5 Due to the size
of the original data, to estimate (1) we extract a 5 percent random sample from the
1991 census. We restrict the sample to women aged 15 to 49. Each woman has a
geographic identifier that allows us to attribute her to the municipio where she lives.
We do not actually use municipios but rather AMCs as our spatial unit of analy-
sis j because this is the smallest consistently defined geographic area provided by
the Brazilian Statistical Institute. The geographic borders of Brazil’s approximately
5,000 municipalities changed over time, while there are 3,659 consistently defined
AMCs for each round of the census.
The variable BIRTHijt is not explicitly incorporated in the census questionnaire,
which only includes a question on the year of the last birth and on the total number
of births a woman had. We therefore impute BIRTHijt using the following proce-
dure. For each woman in the age range 15–49, we know from the household roster
which children of hers are living in the household.6 We retain only children younger
5
We do not use the 2000 census wave for our main results for three reasons. First, the bulk of Globo expan-
sion occurred before 1991 (see Figure 1). Second, while the spread of satellites was limited before 1991, it rapidly
increased thereafter. Finally, the monopoly position of Globo was strongest until the early 1990s.
6
This is made possible thanks to a variable that for every child in the household gives the person identifier of
the mother, if the mother is in the same household.
3,297
Number of AMCs covered by Globo signal
0
1965 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Figure 1. Rede Globo Expansion over Time
than 12, as this increases our confidence that we measure all the births that occurred
in that time period. In fact, in the Brazilian context, it is extremely unlikely that
a child leaves the mother’s household before the age of 12. Given that the census
reports the age of all household members, we compute the year of birth of a child as
the difference between the year of the census interview and the age of the child. We
thus recover every year in which a woman gave birth over the 12-year period before
the census. The mean of this variable is 0.094 (see Appendix Table A1).
The construction of the variable BIRTHijtrests on the assumption that a woman’s
children do not leave the household before the age of 12. While we cannot rule
out that this may occur in a small number of cases, which would lead us to under-
estimate fertility, we have checked the consistency of our method by comparing
our imputed figures with the answer to the census question about the number of
children currently alive for women younger than 25. In fact, given their age, these
are women whose children should all be in the household if our conjecture is cor-
rect. Our results indicate that our method is quite reliable. In 96 percent of the cases
our imputed number of children exactly coincides with the number of births these
women declare. In a remaining 3.5 percent of the cases we underestimate the num-
ber of children born by 1 unit.
From the census we also take the following independent variables X ijt: age of the
woman; stock of children up to year t ; years of education of the household head and
of the woman;7 a proxy for wealth constructed from durable goods ownership and
7
In our benchmark specification, we use the education of the household head, rather than that of the woman,
to mitigate potential endogeneity problems. For younger women, the decision to acquire more education may be a
response to novela viewing. Also, for these women, the causality may run from fertility to education as they may
stop studying once they have a child. If we include among the controls the number of years of education of the
woman (as opposed to those of the head), our estimates of the Globo effect remain virtually unchanged. We show
this in Table 2.
access to basic services;8 a dummy equal to one if the woman is married; a dummy
for catholic religion; a dummy for rural residence; and the number of doctors and
nurses with a diploma per 1,000 people.
As part of our robustness checks, we also use a different dependent variable,
namely the number of live births that a woman declares to have had. This variable,
which we denote as “LIVEBIRTHS, ” is recorded directly as a specific question in
each round of the census and includes children born alive to a woman, regardless
of whether the child is currently living in the household or not. For this variable,
we clearly do not have year-to-year variation, hence, we use three rounds of census
(1970, 1980, and 1991) and aggregate the value for all women aged 15–49 at the
AMC level in each census round. Note that this variable moves rather slowly over
time. In our sample, the average number of live births across AMCs decreases from
3.0 in 1970 to 2.4 in 1991. For this reason, and also because the effect of Globo
entry can be better estimated using a “flow” variable like new births one year to the
next, as opposed to a “stock” variable across census rounds, we focus on the results
obtained using BIRTHijt .
Summary statistics for all variables are reported in Appendix Table A1.
B. Rede Globo and Novelas
Our second data source is information provided by Rede Globo on the year in
which different areas got access to their programs. For each broadcasting or retrans-
mitting station, we know the year and the location (latitude and longitude) where it
was installed, as well as its radial reach in kilometers. This allows us to know which
municipios were reached by the signal of any particular antenna and in which year
they first started receiving the signal. We then match this information with the AMC
corresponding to each municipio, and construct a variable Globo coveragejt equal
to 1 if AMC j is within the signal radius of a Globo broadcasting or retransmitting
station in year t, and 0 otherwise.9 To account for a 9-month pregnancy delay, we
require that the area received the signal for the first time in t − 1 or before.10
In an attempt to control for one of the possible determinants of Globo’s entry
strategy, we also include among the controls the “Index of Potential Consumption”
(IPC) of each AMC for each year in our sample. This is an index estimated by the
Instituto Target Pesquisas e Servicos de Marketing and used by Globo to measure
the purchasing power of different areas.11
Figure 1 shows the increase over time in the number of AMCs reached by the
Globo signal. In 1970, only four AMCs were receiving the Globo signal. In 1980,
8
The variable denoted as “wealth” in the regressions is the first principal component extracted from the follow-
ing set of dummies for each household: access to piped water from the public system, sanitation, electricity in the
house, ownership of a radio, ownership of a refrigerator, ownership of a car.
9
In order to minimize the error due to the fact that we attribute coverage to the entire municipal area, we exclude
from the sample the top 5 percent AMCs in size, and use for our regressions 3,485 AMCs. The results are very
similar when using the full sample.
10
Given that census interviews were fielded between September and December, we also tried defining an area as
covered if it received the signal between January and March of the current year. Results were unchanged.
11
We were not able to receive the index directly from the Instituto Target, but we constructed it from raw data
using the methodology described by Instituto Target in its supporting documentation.
Decade first reached by signal
[1990–2000]
[1980–1990]
[1970–1980]
Decimal Degrees
0 1.5 3 6 9 12
Figure 2. Rede Globo Expansion across Space
the number had increased to 1,300, and in 1991 it had increased to 3,147. Figure 2
shows the geographic expansion of the network between 1970 and 2000. Lighter
colors correspond to an earlier exposure to the signal (with the exception of white,
which stands for “no signal”). This figure suggests that the entry of Globo into dif-
ferent areas may not have been random. Globo reached the most developed parts of
Brazil first, which is potentially a concern for our identification strategy. However,
we show that after controlling for our time-varying controls and for AMC fixed
effects there seems to be no evidence of selection on unobservables correlated with
fertility trends.
To motivate our analysis and help us interpret the results, we have collected
a large amount of data on the content of individual novelas broadcast by Rede
Globo since the start of its operations. Rede Globo traditionally airs three sets of
novelas: at 6 pm, which are typically historical stories and have the lowest audi-
ence; at 7 pm, which are mostly contemporary comedies with elements of con-
spiracy; and at 8 pm, which are heavily focused on social issues and have by far
the highest audience.
For all the 7 pm and 8 pm novelas from 1965 to 1999, we coded the age of first
female character, number of children of first female character, marital status of first
Table 1—Novela Content Analysis. Characteristics of Main Female Character
Full sample Age of female1 < 50 Age of female1 < 50

percent novelas percent novelas and married percent novelas
Number of children
0 62.2 71.6 45.8
1 19.8 20.0 29.2
2 9.9 7.4 20.8
3 4.5 1.1 4.2
4 or more 3.6 0 0
(N = 111) (N = 95) (N = 24)
Married
Yes 28.4 25.5 —
(N = 109) (N = 94)
Divorced or separated
Yes 12.7 10.6 —
(N = 110) (N = 94)
Unfaithful to partner
Yes 24.6 27.7 41.7
(N = 110) (N = 94) (N = 24)
Source: Authors’ calculations based on novela content analysis
female character, and whether the first female character is unfaithful to her partner.12
The distribution of the variables we coded is shown in Table 1.
Over the full sample of 7 pm and 8 pm novelas aired between 1965 and 1999, in
62.2 percent of the novelas the main female character does not have any children;
in 19.8 percent she has one child; in 9.9 percent she has two children, in 4.5 percent
she has three children, and in the remaining cases she has four or more children. It
is interesting to also consider a restricted sample of novelas where the main female
character is below 50 years of age (which anyway comprises 95 out of 111 nove-
las), as these may be the characters with whom women in childbearing age most
easily identify. In this smaller sample, the percentage of childless women increases
to 71.6, 20 percent of the women have one child, and only 7.4 percent have two or
three children (no woman has four or more). Finally, if we look at married women
only, 45.8 percent of them have no children, 29.2 percent have one child, and 20.8
have two. These figures are quite astonishing if we compare them to actual fertility
patterns in the Brazilian population over this period. Furthermore, the low fertility
among novela heroines is not driven by the more recent novelas. If anything, quite
the opposite. With the exception of the year 1996, the average main female char-
acter has no more than one child in each and every year between 1965 and 1999.
Most strikingly, in the first decade of operation of Rede Globo, every 7 pm and 8 pm
novela, with the exception of two, were about a woman who had no children at all.
Similar observations apply to variables like marriage, divorce, and extramarital
relationships. Only 28.4 percent of the main female characters in novelas are mar-
ried (25.5 in the sample younger than 50) and 12.7 percent are divorced or sepa-
rated (10.6 percent in the sample younger than 50). In the full sample, 24.5 percent
12
The coding of these variables was done on the basis of detailed plots contained in the Dicionario da TV Globo
(Globo 2003) as well as internet sources. We had two independent research assistants code the same novelas to
ensure maximal accuracy. The list of novelas in our sample is available upon request.
of the main female characters are unfaithful to their partner (27.7 percent in the
sample younger than 50 and 41.7 in the married sample younger than 50). While
for the latter variable it is not possible to find a counterpart in census data, in the
fiction marriage rates are markedly lower and divorce rates markedly higher than in
Brazilian contemporaneous society.13 These observations make us confident that the
role models portrayed in the programs of the television channels we analyze were
clearly consistent with a radical reorientation of society’s attitudes toward women’s
roles in the family, including fertility.
IV. Econometric Results
In this section, we take advantage of variation in the timing of Globo entry into
different areas to formally test the hypothesis that exposure to the programs of this
television network was associated with a reduction in fertility rates. We start by pre-
senting the main results and then discuss identification.
A. Main Results
Table 2 contains our first set of results. The dependent variable BIRTHijt is a
dummy equal to one if woman i living in area j gave birth in year t, and zero other-
wise. Our variable of interest, Globo coveragejt, is a dummy capturing whether the
area j where the woman lived received the Globo signal in that year. Precisely, to
take into account the length of the pregnancy period, at any point in time we con-
sider the AMC as covered if it was reached by the signal at least the year before.
In this table, we estimate model (1) as a linear probability model and cluster the
standard errors by AMC. We have also tried clustering by individual, to allow for
arbitrary autocorrelation within a woman over time, and we found that our standard
errors were actually smaller. In what follows we therefore chose to report the more
conservative standard errors, i.e., those clustered by AMC.
In column 1 of panel A, we regress BIRTH on Globo coverage and on a set of
year dummies, without including any other control. The coefficient on the Globo
variable is −0.027, which is almost one-third of the mean probability of giving birth
over the sample period (0.094). Of course, this coefficient cannot be interpreted due
to the fact that Globo presence in an area may be correlated with other characteris-
tics associated with lower fertility. In columns 2 and 3, we thus introduce different
area fixed effects to control for differences in time-invariant unobservables across
locations. We start with state (Unidade Federação, UF) fixed effects in column 2
and move to AMC fixed effects in column 3. The coefficients on the Globo variable
drop, respectively, to −0.011 and −0.006.
In panel B, columns 4–9, we repeat the same sequence of estimations, but we
also include a number of time varying controls. Controls common to all regressions
are: the age of the woman and the square of this variable, the stock of children the
woman already has (excluding the newborn) and the square of this variable, marital
13
In related work, we analyze at the aggregate level the relationship between Globo presence and divorce rates
(Chong and La Ferrara 2009).
Table 2—Globo Coverage and Fertility
Dependent variable
= 1 if gives birth in
year t (BIRTH) [1] [2] [3]
Panel A.
Globo coverage −0.0269 −0.0115 −0.006
(0.0037)*** (0.0026)*** (0.0015)***
Constant 0.1177 0.1126 0.111
(0.0015)*** (0.0016)*** (0.0011)***
Year fixed effects Yes Yes Yes
Area fixed effects No State AMC
Number of areas 27 3,485
Observations 2,102,431 2,102,431 2,102,431
R2 0.003 0.006 0.012
[4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9]

Panel B.
Globo coverage −0.0075 −0.0042
−0.0047 −0.0074 −0.0037 −0.0047
(0.0012)*** (0.0010)***
(0.0012)*** (0.0013)*** (0.0011)*** (0.0012)***
Age 0.023 0.023
0.0231 0.0234 0.0235 0.0236
(0.0005)*** (0.0005)***
(0.0006)*** (0.0005)*** (0.0005)*** (0.0005)***
Age squareda −0.4208 −0.4208
−0.4213 −0.4305 −0.4305 −0.431
(0.0105)*** (0.0105)***
(0.0107)*** (0.0105)*** (0.0105)*** (0.0106)***
Stock of children 0.0029 0.0027
0.0017 0.0008 0.0006 −0.0003
(0.0007)*** (0.0007)***
(0.0006)*** (0.0007) (0.0007) (0.0006)
Stock of children −0.06 −0.0597
−0.0222 0.0497 0.0505 0.089
squareda (0.0368) (0.0361)*
(0.0341) (0.0383) (0.0374) (0.0352)**
Education of head −0.0002 −0.0002
−0.0002
(0.0001) (0.0001)
(0.0001)
Education of woman −0.0029 −0.003 −0.003
(0.0001)*** (0.0001)*** (0.0001)***
Wealth −0.0208 −0.0204 −0.0205 −0.017 −0.0161 −0.0162
(0.0003)*** (0.0003)*** (0.0003)*** (0.0003)*** (0.0004)*** (0.0004)***
Married 0.0567 0.0575 0.0581 0.0571 0.0581 0.0588
(0.0010)*** (0.0011)*** (0.0012)*** (0.0011)*** (0.0012)*** (0.0013)***
Catholic −0.0025 −0.0034 −0.0033 −0.0029 −0.0038 −0.0037
(0.0006)*** (0.0006)*** (0.0006)*** (0.0006)*** (0.0006)*** (0.0006)***
Rural −0.0043 −0.0054 −0.0048 −0.0045 −0.0055 −0.0048
(0.0012)*** (0.0011)*** (0.0011)*** (0.0013)*** (0.0011)*** (0.0012)***
Doctors and nurses −0.074 −0.0733 −0.0515 0.0507 0.0546 0.0816
(0.0710) (0.0713) (0.0748) (0.0677) (0.0681) (0.0723)
Index of potential 0.0112 0.0016 −0.3646 0.0164 0.0151 −0.3608
consumption (0.0069) (0.0087) (0.0628)*** (0.0060)*** (0.0108) (0.0670)***
Constant −0.193 −0.194 −0.1877 −0.1818 −0.1829 −0.176
(0.0069)*** (0.0069)*** (0.0074)*** (0.0064)*** (0.0064)*** (0.0068)***
Year fixed effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Area fixed effects No State AMC No State AMC
Number of areas 27 3,485 27 3,485
Observations 2,102,136 2,102,136 2,102,136 2,102,136 2,102,136 2,102,136
R2 0.046 0.046 0.050 0.047 0.048 0.051
Notes: Table reports OLS coefficients. Standard errors in parentheses are corrected for clustering at the AMC level.
AMC stands for Minimally Comparable Area and is a geographic aggregate slightly broader than a municipality.
a
Coefficient and standard error multiplied by 1,000.
*** Significant at the 1 percent level.
** Significant at the 5 percent level.
* Significant at the 10 percent level.
status of the woman, a dummy for catholic religion, a dummy for rural residence, an
index of wealth built from information on durable goods ownership and quality of
the house, the number of doctors and nurses per 1,000 people in the AMC, and the
Index of Potential Consumption of the AMC.14 Then to control for the role of educa-
tion, we either include the years of education of the household head (columns 4–6)
or those of the woman (i.e., the respondent, in columns 7–9). We do not include TV
ownership as this is likely an endogenous variable, but we show this control in a
sensitivity table below. After we include these time-varying controls, the coefficient
on the Globo variable remains of a similar order of magnitude as in column 3. We
also explored the robustness of our results to including interaction terms between
each year and each state (Unidade Federação). The pattern of the results remained
the same, though the size of the coefficient on Globo coverage was reduced by about
one third.15
Columns 6 and 9 of Table 2, panel B, contain our benchmark specifications, i.e.,
those with time varying controls plus AMC and year fixed effects. In both specifica-
tions, the coefficient of Globo coverage is negative and significant at the 1 percent
level. Ceteris paribus, a woman living in an area that receives Globo is 0.5 percent-
age points less likely to give birth in any given year (recall that the mean of the
dependent variable is 0.094). The magnitudes of the various coefficients indicate
that, ceteris paribus, being exposed to Globo programs leads to the same decrease in
the probability of giving birth as an increase of 1.6 years in the woman’s education.
This is quite relevant, given that the average education of women in this sample is
5.7 years. Alternatively, the effect of exposure to Globo is one-tenth of that of being
married (with the opposite sign).
What fraction of the overall fertility decline during this period can be explained
by exposure to Rede Globo? We can give an approximate answer based on the
estimates in Table 2. In 1980, the average probability of giving birth for a woman
aged 15–49 was 0.111. In 1991, this probability had declined to 0.079, a decline of
3.2 percentage points. Over the same period, the fraction of women in the same age
range exposed to Globo increased from 0.453 to 0.921 (recall the steep gradient in
Figure 1). The coefficient on Globo exposure in columns 6 and 9 of Table 2, panel
B, is −0.0047, which implies that ceteris paribus increased exposure to Globo could
account for about 7 percent of the reduction in the probability of giving birth over
this period. This is a sizeable effect. For the sake of comparison, average years of
education over this period for women aged 15–49 increased by 1.15. Although this
change may itself be endogenous to fertility patterns, based on the coefficient of
the education variable in column 9, we would say that increased education would
account for 11.3 percent of the reduction in the probability of giving birth.16
14
Age and the stock of children vary across women and are time-varying for each woman. Marital status, educa-
tion, wealth, religion, and rural status vary across women but are time invariant. Our results are unchanged if we
include a dummy for whether the woman gave birth in the previous year.
15
Results available from the authors.
16
This is smaller than the contribution of women’s years of schooling estimated by Lam and Duryea (1993),
but the difference can be explained in several ways. First, they look at an earlier period (fertility decline during the
1960s and 1970s) when education levels were much lower, and the relationship between education and fertility is
nonlinear. Second, their regressions include a smaller set of time varying controls than ours. Third, they focus on a
different age group (women age 30–34) and use a different dependent variable (children born by age 30).
Table 3—Heterogeneous Effects, Education, and Wealth
Dependent variable = 1
if gives birth in year t (BIRTH) [1] [2] [3]
Globo coverage −0.0101 −0.013 −0.0043
(0.0014)*** (0.0015)*** (0.0013)***
Globo coverage × education of head 0.0013
(0.0002)***
Globo coverage × education of woman 0.0018
(0.0002)***
Globo coverage × wealth 0.0018
(0.0005)***
(0.0001)*** (0.0001)
Education of woman −0.0044
(0.0001)***
Wealth −0.0204 −0.0161 −0.0218
(0.0003)*** (0.0004)*** (0.0005)***
Controlsa Yes Yes Yes
AMC fixed effects Yes Yes Yes
Observations 2,102,136 2,102,136 2,102,136
R2 0.05 0.05 0.05
Notes: Table reports OLS coefficients. Standard errors in parentheses are corrected for cluster-
ing at the AMC level. AMC stands for Minimally Comparable Area and is a geographic aggre-
gate slightly broader than a municipio.
a
Controls not listed include those in column 6 of Table 2.
We next analyze the possibility that the effects of exposure to Globo may be het-
erogeneous along the dimensions of education and wealth. In Table 3, we introduce an
interaction term between Globo coverage and the years of education of the household
head (column 1); the years of education of the woman (column 2); and the wealth
index of the household (column 3). In all cases, we find that the negative effect of
Globo exposure on fertility is strongest for women living in poorer households and
households with lower levels of education, and is attenuated for richer and more edu-
cated households. Based on the estimates reported in the table, ceteris paribus expo-
sure to Globo for a woman with 1 or 2 years of education reduces the probability of
giving birth by 1.1 percentage point. For women with 4 years of education the reduc-
tion is smaller, namely 0.6 of a percentage point, and the effects of Globo become 0
once a woman has 8 or more years of education. Similarly, for women with a durable
wealth index equal to the twentieth percentile, the effect of Globo is a reduction in
the probability of giving birth of 0.7 percentage points. For women whose wealth is
equal to the eightieth percentile, the reduction is only 0.2 percentage points.
The above findings are important from a policy perspective because it is exactly
for the poorer and less educated individuals that we should expect a medium like
television to have the most potential in terms of communication. Rich and educated
households may already be exposed to different lifestyles and role models through
written media or social interactions.
Table 4—Age Effects
if gives birth in year t (BIRTH)
Age range: 15–24 25–34 35–44 30–49 40–49
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]
Globo coverage −0.0023 −0.0078 −0.0059
(0.0015) (0.0024)*** (0.0020)***
Years exposed 10–19 −0.0027
(0.0011)**
Years exposed 20–29 −0.0045 −0.0097
(0.0007)*** (0.0011)***
Years exposed 30–39 −0.0066 −0.0101
(0.0006)*** (0.0008)***
Years exposed 40–49 −0.0021
(0.0007)***
Controlsa Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year fixed effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
AMC fixed effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 823,218 653,533 454,836 1,118,600 602,429
R2 0.068 0.038 0.051 0.0547 0.0639
AMC stands for Minimally Comparable Area and is a geographic aggregate slightly broader than a municipio.
a
In Table 4, we explore another dimension of heterogeneity in impact, that is, age.

In columns 1–3, we split the sample into three age groups: 15–24, 25–34, 35–44.
The results in the table suggest interesting differences among age groups. For the
youngest age bracket, i.e., women aged 15–24, Globo coverage decreases the prob-
ability of giving birth by 0.2 percentage points, but the effect is not statistically sig-
nificant (the mean of BIRTH for this group is 0.10). For the age group 25–34, which,
on average, has a probability of giving birth in any given year of 0.135, Globo
presence is associated with a reduction of 0.8 percentage points in the likelihood of
giving birth. The effect is also very strong for the next age group, i.e., women aged
35–44. The average probability of giving birth for this group is 0.057, and exposure
to Globo leads to a reduction of 0.6 percentage points.
In columns 4 and 5 of Table 4, we estimate the effect of length of exposure to
Globo, allowing for a differential effect of exposure at different ages.17 We find that
among women aged 30–49, 1 more year of exposure as a teenager (i.e., during age
10–19) decreases the likelihood of giving birth by 0.003, while one more year of
exposure during age 20–29 decreases the likelihood of giving birth by 0.005. Years
of exposure during age 30–39 have the strongest effect on fertility, with an estimated
17
The variables “Years exposed during 10–19”, … “Years exposed during 40–49” are defined only for women
who have reached the relevant age bracket. Therefore, the sample in column 5 includes women aged 40–49 because
these are the only ones for which “Years exposed during 40–49” is nonmissing. On the other hand, in this column,
“Years exposed during 10–19” is not included among the regressors because it is identically zero for the 40–49 age
group. Column 4 enlarges the sample to women aged 30–49, and for this group the coefficient on “Years exposed
during 10–19” can be estimated.
Average number of live births

6
1970 1980 1991
5
0
[15-19] [20-24] [25-29] [30-34] [35-39] [40-44]
Age
Figure 3. Average Number of Births, by Age Cohort
coefficient of −0.007. Among women aged 40–49 (column 5), we find that one more
year of exposure during age 20–29 decreases the likelihood of giving birth by 0.01,
the same effect as one more year of exposure during age 30–39. Exposure during age
40–49 leads to a reduction of 0.2 percentage points in the probability of giving birth.
It is worth discussing the above findings in relation to the demographic literature
on Brazil. An apparently puzzling result in Table 4 is the absence of significance
of Globo exposure for the youngest age group, women aged 15–24. However, this
is consistent with what is known about the nature of changing fertility patterns in
Brazil. Martine (1996) and Flores and Nuñez (2003) find that changes in the start-
ing age of fertility have been negligible in this country, related both to relatively
stable marital patterns as well as persistently high rates of adolescent fertility. On
the other hand, increased spacing of births and—especially—stopping of childbirth
have been found to be more important (Moreno 1991). These findings are confirmed
in our data, as illustrated in Figure 3.
The histograms in Figure 3 represent the average number of live births for women
aged 15–19, 20–24, and so on, until 40–44, for the census years 1970, 1980, and
1991. Interestingly, over the period 1970–1991 there has been absolutely no decrease
in the average number of live births for women younger than 25. By the age of 24, the
average woman in our sample had one child both in 1970 and in 1991. What happens
between the age of 25 and 35, on the other hand, is very different over this period.
In 1970, a woman aged 30–34 would have had, on average, 4.4 live births in her life.
In 1991, this number decreased to 3.2. A similar decline occurred between 35 and
45 years of age. In 1970, a woman aged 40–45 would have had, on average, 6.4 live
births in her life. In 1991 this number decreased to 4.9. This data suggests that it is in
the intermediate and late stages of their reproductive life that Brazilian women chose
to have fewer children, which is consistent with our estimates in Table 4.
B. Identification
The key identification assumption underlying our approach is that Globo entry
in a market, though not random, was uncorrelated with pre-existing differences in
0.015
0.01
0.005
0
−9 −8 −7 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
−0.005
−0.01
Years since coverage
Figure 4. Timing of Fertility Decline around Year of Globo Entry
Note: Estimated coefficients and 95 percent confidence interval from a regression of the probability of giving birth
on a set of dummies from t − 9 to t + 9, where t = 0 is the year of Globo entry.
f ertility trends across areas, after controlling for time varying controls, time invariant
area characteristics, and a common trend. To assess the plausibility of this assump-
tion, we proceed in several ways.
First of all, we exploit the exact timing of births to test whether the decline in
fertility occurs in correspondence with the introduction of Rede Globo in an area, or
if it precedes it. For this purpose, we estimate regression (1) substituting the Globo
coverage variable G jt with a full set of dummies going from nine years before the
introduction of Globo to nine years after. In particular, we estimate
Bijt= α−9 D−
(4) 9+ ⋯ + α0 D0+ ⋯ + α+
9 D+
9+ Xijt β + μj+ λt+ εijt,
where D 0is a dummy for the year of Globo entry; D sis a dummy for s years before
−
Globo entry; and D+s is a dummy for s years after Globo entry. Note that, because
entry occurs at different times in different AMCs, D 0corresponds to, say, 1980 for
certain AMCs, 1987 for others, etc. The estimated coefficients { α −9, … ,  α +9} are
displayed in Figure 4 together with 95 percent confidence bands.
Figure 4 shows that the decline in fertility does not occur before Globo entry.
None of the coefficients for the years preceding entry, nor the coefficient for the year
of entry itself, are significantly different from zero. The negative effect of Globo on
fertility is realized one year after its entry, consistent with the delay related to the
length of pregnancy, and persists at similar levels as in the immediate aftermath of
entry in subsequent years. The rapid impact of TV introduction is consistent with
that found by Jensen and Oster (2009) in the Indian context. This result increases
our confidence in the validity of our identification strategy, as it would be difficult to
explain the discontinuous decline in the year immediately following Globo’s entry
as a result of trends in unobservables.
A second way to investigate the nature of the possible selection in Globo entry is
to test whether the date of entry of Globo in a given area is correlated with fertility
rates at the beginning of the period, i.e., in the 1970 census. We aggregate the data
Table 5—Possible Selection in Globo Entry
Dependent variable is
year of Globo entry [1] [2] [3] [4]
Average levels in AMC in 1970:
BIRTH 5.2009 0.7398 1.6339 0.6973
(2.4475)** (0.6414) (1.0099) (0.5759)
Age −0.0252 0.0338
(0.0494) (0.0248)
(0.3772)*** (0.1539)
Wealth −1.3452 −0.7195
(0.5008)** (0.5674)
Married −2.4903 0.6764
(1.4371)* (0.8552)
Catholic 1.8494 −0.7544
(1.7838) (1.5300)
Rural −3.1433 −1.2162
(0.7685)*** (0.4906)**
Doctors and nurses −23.3873 −46.8729
(21.3720) (33.0399)
Index of potential consumption −84.7199 −118.4708
(15.0145)*** (30.5864)***
Constant 1982.6 1983.2 1987.2 1982.4
(0.7371)*** (0.0793)*** (2.7165)*** (2.0261)***
State fixed effects No Yes No Yes
Observations 2,945 2,945 2,945 2,945
R2 0.01 0.31 0.14 0.32
Notes: Table reports OLS coefficients. Standard errors in parentheses are corrected for cluster-
ing at the state level. Each observation is an AMC (Minimally Comparable Area, a geographic
aggregate slightly broader than a municipio).
at the AMC level, which is the level at which entry decisions were likely made (as
opposed to individual level), and we estimate the following regression
(5) GloboYearj= X  1970

j  β + λ B  1970
j  + ηj,
where GloboYearjis the year in which AMC j first received the Globo signal; B   1970
j 
is the average probability of giving birth for women age 15–49 in AMC j in census
j 
year 1970; X  1970 is the vector of controls used in our benchmark specification (col-
umn 6 of Table 2), measured as average for the AMC in 1970; and ηj is the error
term. We estimate (5) using OLS with and without State fixed effects, and we cluster
standard errors at the state level. The results are displayed in Table 5.
In column 1 of Table 5, we regress the year of Globo entry only on the average
probability of giving birth in 1970, without any other controls. Not surprisingly,
given the pattern we had highlighted in Figure 2, the coefficient on BIRTHjis posi-
tive and significant, suggesting that places with higher fertility got the signal later. As
soon as we introduce state fixed effects (column 2), however, the correlation disap-
pears. Furthermore, if we control for the initial levels of the other variables that we
Table 6—Placebo Regressions
Dependent variable = 1 if
gives birth in year t (BIRTH) [1] [2] [3] [4]
Globo coverage in t −0.0043 −0.0038
(0.0016)*** (0.0014)***
Globo coverage in t + 1 −0.0008 0
(0.0015) (0.0015)
Globo coverage in −0.0011 −0.0012
neighboring AMC (0.0010) (0.0010)
Controlsa in t No Yes No Yes
AMC fixed effects Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year fixed effects Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 1,913,150 1,912,855 2,101,996 2,101,701
R2 0.013 0.050 0.012 0.050
Note: Standard errors in parentheses are corrected for clustering at the AMC level.
a
include in our regressions (columns 3 and 4), no significant correlation between initial
fertility and the year of entry is found, even when we do not include state fixed effects.
Finally, we perform a series of falsification tests. The first is based on the tim-
ing of Globo entry. We perform analogous regressions to the ones we performed in
Table 2, panel B (our benchmark results), but instead of only looking at the effects
of Globo’s past entry on current behavior, we also look at the effects of future entry.
Our dependent variable is BIRTHijt , i.e., a dummy for whether woman i living in
AMC j gave birth in year t. Our regressor of interest is Globo coverage in t + 1, i.e.,
a dummy equal to 1 if AMC j is reached by the Globo signal in year t + 1. Because
every area that receives the signal in t maintains its coverage status in t + 1, the coef-
ficient on this variable effectively captures the effect of future entry for areas that are
not covered by the signal in t. Our hypothesis for this “placebo” experiment is that
fertility in places that do not receive the Globo signal should not be affected by the
fact that the signal may become available in the future. The results are displayed in
columns 1 and 2 of Table 6. As can be seen in this table, when we omit time-varying
controls (column 1) and when we include them (column 2), the coefficient on future
presence of Globo is zero.
The second falsification test exploits information about bordering AMCs. For each
AMC j in our sample, if any of its neighboring AMCs has a coverage status differ-
ent from j in a given year, we attribute that coverage status to j. This implies possibly
attributing coverage to areas that do not have it, or lack of coverage to areas that have
it. Hence, we do not expect the variable “Globo coverage in neighboring AMC” to
be significant, unless it captures shocks to the region that are correlated with fertility
changes. Columns 3 and 4 of Table 6 show that indeed there is no significant effect.
Finally, in our last falsification test we generate a random year of entry between
1965 and 2004 (the first and last year of entry in our sample) different from the
actual year in which Globo entered each AMC, and we construct a “false” Globo
coverage variable based on this random year of entry. We then reestimate our
benchmark model, equation (1), using the false Globo coverage variable, and store
Individual level simulations (cumulative distribution)

1.0
Cumulative probability
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
−0.01 0.00
Globo coverage
Individual level simulations (density)

240
220
Probability density
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20 reference normal, mean 1.8e−05 sd 0.00178
0
0.00
Globo coverage estimate
Figure 5. Placebo Year of Globo Entry. Distribution of Estimated Coefficients
Note: Cumulative distribution function (top panel) and density (bottom panel) of the estimated coefficients from
500 simulations using false date of Globo entry.
the estimates. We repeat the exercise 500 times. The empirical cumulative distri-
bution function and density of the estimated coefficients on Globo coverage are
shown in Figure 5. The distribution of the estimated coefficients on the placebo
Globo variable is centered around zero, as expected, and our benchmark estimate
from column 6 of Table 2, panel B (indicated by a vertical line in correspondence
of the value −0.005) clearly lies outside the range of coefficients estimated in our
simulation exercise.
Taken together, the results in Figures 4 and 5 and in Tables 5 and 6 increase our
confidence that our findings are not spurious.
C. Robustness
Our results are robust to the inclusion of different controls and to using a different
measure of fertility and different level of aggregation. In panel A of Table 7, we esti-
mate our benchmark specification of column 6 of Table 2, panel B, including several
regressors that are likely to be important determinants of fertility but are potentially
endogenous. The first is a dummy for whether the household where the woman
lives owns a television set. This variable is negatively correlated with fertility, and
its inclusion does not substantially affect the coefficient of Globo coverage. Similar
results obtain when we control for whether there is electricity in the dwelling (col-
umn 2 of Table 7, panel A), one of the variables that Potter, Schmertmann, and
Table 7—Robustness
if gives birth in year t
(BIRTH) [1] [2] [3]
Panel A. Individual level
Globo coverage −0.0047 −0.0047 −0.0049
(0.0012)*** (0.0012)*** (0.0012)***
TV owner −0.0114
(0.0010)***
Electricity −0.0042
(0.0016)**
Woman employed −0.0206
(0.0005)***
Controlsa Yes Yes Yes
AMC fixed effects Yes Yes Yes
Observations 2,102,136 2,102,136 2,102,136
R2 0.05 0.05 0.05
Panel B. AMC level

Dependent variable is avg.
number of live births for
women aged 15– 49 in AMC
(LIVEBIRTHS) [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9]
Globo coverage −0.302 −0.0634 −0.0267 −0.0727 −0.0188 −0.0305
(0.0191)*** (0.0143)*** (0.0155)* (0.0110)*** (0.0104)* (0.0145)**
Education of head −0.0116 −0.006 −0.0045
(0.0016)*** (0.0016)*** (0.0019)**
Age 0.0456 0.0601 0.0935
(0.0154)*** (0.0142)*** (0.0189)***
Share aged 15–24 0.7449 0.7705 −0.166
(0.3417)** (0.3138)** (0.4318)
Share aged 25–34 −1.0469 −1.0242 −1.8732
(0.2138)*** (0.2011)*** (0.2821)***
Married 0.0354 0.2784 0.1265
(0.0704) (0.0765)*** (0.1180)
Wealth −0.1814 −0.1543 −0.1077
(0.0034)*** (0.0036)*** (0.0069)***
Catholic −0.0022 −0.2504 0.0348
(0.0583) (0.0632)*** (0.1523)
Rural −0.3079 −0.1998 0.3503
(0.0306)*** (0.0272)*** (0.0638)***
Doctors and nurses −0.0177 −0.0267 −0.0244
(0.0038)*** (0.0037)*** (0.0058)***
Index of potential 0.7189 −0.7448 0.8652
consumption (0.3434)** (0.2378)*** (4.7037)
Constant 2.9839 2.9836 2.984 1.8651 1.4592 0.5844
(0.0077)*** (0.0067)*** (0.0057)*** (0.5981)*** (0.5512)*** (0.7621)
Year fixed effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Area fixed effects No State AMC No State AMC
Number of areas 27 3,485 27 3,485
Observations 10,427 10,427 10,427 10,427 10,427 10,427
R2 0.25 0.58 0.83 0.64 0.70 0.85
Panel A: each observation is an individual-year. Years 1979–1991. Panel B: each observation is a couple AMC-
Census year. Years: 1970, 1980, 1991.
a
Cavenaghi (2002) found to have significant explanatory power in fertility regres-

sions. While electricity is already included in our wealth index, its introduction as
a stand-alone regressor does not alter our findings. Finally, when we control for the
employment status of the woman (column 3, Panel A) we find no effect on the coef-
ficient of our Globo variable, despite the fact that female employment is associated
with lower fertility.
In panel B of Table 7, we report results obtained using a different dependent vari-
able and aggregating the data at the AMC level for the three census waves: 1970,
1980, and 1991. The dependent variable in this table is LIVEBIRTHS, i.e., the aver-
age number of live births for women aged 15–49 in the AMC in any given census
year. This variable is directly asked in the census questionnaire, but does not allow
to exploit year-to-year variation as it only measures the stock of births in a given
census year without indicating when exactly births occurred. For this reason we do
not employ it in our main analysis, but only as a robustness check. The Globo cov-
erage dummy is defined as in the other regressions, i.e., it equals one if the AMC
receives the Globo signal in that census year (precisely, if the signal reached the
AMC at least one year before, to account for the duration of pregnancy). The table
reports OLS coefficients and standard errors clustered by AMC. In column 4, panel
B, we only include year fixed effects. In columns 5 and 6, we add area fixed effects
at different levels of aggregation. In columns 7–9, we include a number of controls
to account for time-varying differences across AMCs. These controls are the same
that we use in the individual level analysis, averaged at the AMC level.
In all specifications, the coefficient on the Globo variable is negative and sig-
nificant. The magnitude of the benchmark estimate (the fixed effects panel regres-
sion in column 9) is −0.03 and suggests that the effect of Globo exposure is about
one-fourth of the effect of being married; and it is comparable to that of having
one more doctor or nurse per 1000 people, which is also remarkable given that the
mean of this variable is 0.2. Note that the size of the coefficient on Globo coverage
cannot be compared to our benchmark estimates in Table 2 because the dependent
variable is different. The mean across AMCs of the dependent variable used here
(LIVEBIRTHS) is 2.67 and the standard deviation is 0.55. Also, this variable
changes very little over time. Its mean is 2.98 in 1970, 2.66 in 1980, and 2.36 in
1991.18 However, overall, we get a qualitatively similar pattern of results with the
two dependent variables.
V. Interpretation: TV or Novelas?
Our results so far indicate a robust and negative effect of Globo presence on fer-
tility choices in Brazil. In this section, we try to understand to what extent this is a
18
Note that these figures are not necessarily in contrast with the sharp decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) dis-
cussed at the beginning of this paper. Unlike the TFR, which is a hypothetical number of children born to a woman
exposed to the age-specific fertility rates of women 15–49 of that year, the LIVEBIRTHS measure is truncated. In the
LIVEBIRTHS measure, many of the women would have gone on to have additional births especially in the earlier
years, but their fertility is being measured at their current age before they have necessarily finished. There is less
of a decline observed over the same period in LIVEBIRTHS than in TFR because the TFR measure more naturally
reflects the important role of stopping behavior in the fertility decline. If the transmission had occurred mainly
through delaying first births, then we would have seen a more similar decline between the two measures.
general effect of television viewing or whether it can be linked to the particular type
of programs broadcast by Rede Globo.
A first step is to show that indeed people watched novelas and that some of the
decisions people made were affected by the content of novelas. We focus on nam-
ing patterns among children and test whether, ceteris paribus, it is more common
for parents living in areas that are reached by Globo to name their children after
popular characters in novelas. Naming choices have been studied in the sociological
literature as examples of important life decisions with a peculiar feature. Names do
not necessarily have intrinsic values but take value as part of the social environment
in which the decision takes place. Among others, Lieberson and Bell (1992) use data
on births in New York State over the period 1973–1985 and show that name choices
are affected by education and socioeconomic status of the parents in interesting
ways. In particular, they find evidence that names that first appear among the top
20 choices of highly educated parents are later adopted by low-education parents,
suggesting a diffusion process in which parents adapt to the choices of higher socio-
economic status families.
We investigate whether a similar adaptation process could be in place vis-à-vis
the life of individuals portrayed in Globo novelas. To this purpose, we use adminis-
trative data on the names of Brazilian fifth graders in 2004 (Ministry of Education
of Brazil 2005) and compare the pattern of their first names with the first names of
the main characters in the novelas aired in the year in which these children were
born, typically 1994.19 We do this for a 10 percent random sample of AMCs in the
country, i.e., for 366 AMCs.20
Our variable of interest is a dummy NAMESMATCH that equals 1 if at least 1of
the top 20 most prevalent names of children born in 1994 is 1 of the names of the
main novela characters of that year. Since novela names tend to be very idiosyn-
cratic in Brazil and elsewhere in Latin America, we believe that evidence on pos-
sible name patterns strongly suggests a link between novela content and behavior.
Table 8 reports the results of this exercise.
Of the 366 AMCs for which we have data, 319 had received the Globo signal by
1994 (the birth year of the children in our sample), and 47 received it after 1994 or
did not receive it at all. Panel A of the table shows a simple comparison of means in
the two subsamples. The mean of the NAMESMATCH variable is 0.329 in the group
of AMCs covered by Globo and 0.085 in the other group. In other words, the likeli-
hood that the 20 most popular names chosen by parents for their newborns would
include one or more names of the main characters of novelas aired that year was
about 33 percent if the area where parents lived received the Globo signal and only
8.5 percent if it did not. Panel A also reports confidence intervals and shows that the
difference is statistically significant at the 1 percent level.
19
We coded the names of the three main male and female characters of Globo novelas aired in 1994 based on
detailed plot descriptions provided by Globo itself.
20
While we would have liked to compare names for the full spectrum of AMCs in our sample, this was not
possible due to data limitations. However, we tested for possible differences in observables among the AMCs for
which we had names and the remaining ones, and in no case we could reject the of equality of means, suggesting
that the randomization worked well.
Table 8—Naming Children after Novela Characters

95 percent conf. interval
Mean of Difference of
Observations NAMESMATCH a Lower Upper means (p-value)
Panel A. Test of means
Globo coverage
Yes 319 0.329 0.277 0.381
No 47 0.085 0.002 0.168 0.0003
Dependent variable
is NAMESMATCH [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
Panel B. Multivariate regression
Globo coverage 0.244 0.2213 0.1796 0.244 0.23 0.2139
(0.0566)*** (0.0563)*** (0.0788)** (0.0566)*** (0.0601)*** (0.0850)***
Controlsb No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
State fixed effects No No Yes No No Yes
Predicted P 0.287 0.283 0.289
R2 0.032 0.057 0.126 0.032 0.053 0.10
Observationsc 366 366 366 366 366 358
Notes: Panel B: Standard errors in parentheses are clustered by state. Column 1–3 report OLS coefficients. Column
4– 6 report marginal probit coefficients.
a
The variable NAMESMATCH is a dummy equal to 1 if any of the names of the three main characters of Globo
novelas aired in 1994 appears among the top 20 names of children born that year.
b
AMC level controls include: education of the head, wealth, married, catholic, doctors and nurses, log of popu-
lation, rural, Index of Potential Consumption.
c
In column 6 three State dummies (8 observations) predict failure perfectly and are dropped from the regression.
In panel B, we run a linear probability model and a probit model using as

dependent variable NAMESMATCH and clustering the standard errors at the state
(Unidade Federacao) level. The Globo coverage variable also has a positive and
significant effect after we control for the same variables used in previous regres-
sions (columns 2 and 5) and for state fixed effects (columns 3 and 6). The size of the
Globo coefficient is basically the same as without the controls (columns 1 and 4).
Our estimates suggest that, ceteris paribus, AMCs that receive the Globo signal have
a probability of displaying a “match” between children’s and novela characters’
names that is 18–24 percent higher, depending on the specification.
To shed more light on the role of content, we turn to individual-level census data,
and explore the possibility that viewers may have been differently affected by nove-
las depending on their messages or on the extent to which they could identify with
the main characters. The results are displayed in Table 9.
In the first column, we repeat a regression analogous to that of column 6 of
Table 2, panel B, and we include interactions of the Globo coverage variable with
a dummy identifying the years in which at least one novela in the previous season
featured upward social mobility for its main female character, according to our cod-
ing of novela plots. We find that while there is a generalized negative effect of Globo
coverage on fertility, the effect is stronger the years after particularly appealing mes-
sages, such as those of improving one’s socioeconomic status. Notice that because
there are several “reversals” over the years in the coverage of social mobility, it
Table 9—Effects of Novela Content
Dependent variable = 1 if gives birth in year t (BIRTH) [1] [2]

Globo coverage −0.003 −0.0037
(0.017)* (0.0013)***
Globo coverage × social mobility −0.0032
(0.0013)**
Globo coverage × age match −0.003
(0.0008)***
Controlsa Yes Yes
Year fixed effects Yes Yes
AMC fixed effects Yes Yes
Observations 2,102,136 2,102,136
R2 0.050 0.050
Note: Standard errors in parentheses are corrected for clustering at the AMC level.
a
Controls are the same as in column 6 of Table 2.
would be difficult to explain this result as originating from (monotonic) trends lead-
ing to fertility decline.
In column 2, we investigate the role of “frame salience”, i.e., whether Globo’s
impact was stronger when viewers could more easily identify with the characters,
as determined by the proximity in age between a novela character and its viewers.
For each woman in the sample and each year between 1978 and 1990, we create a
dummy Age match equal to 1 if the age of the woman (respondent) is within four
years of the age of the main female character of at least one novela aired that year.
For example, if a novela character was 35 years old, we assign Age match = 1 to
respondents aged 31 to 39, and 0 otherwise.21 Notice that there is substantial varia-
tion across years in the age of the main female characters displayed, with some years
portraying only “young” characters, some only “mature” ones, and some a mix. The
mean of Age match in our sample is 0.34.
We then interact this dummy with the Globo coverage variable, to test if exposure
to Globo in a given year had a differential impact on the likelihood of giving birth
for women who were close in age to the main female character portrayed that year.
As before, to take into account the duration of pregnancy, the Globo coverage vari-
able and the Age match dummy refer to the year before the one in which a potential
birth is recorded.
The results in column 2 confirm that, on average, exposure to Globo had a nega-
tive effect on the likelihood of giving birth for all women (the coefficient on Globo
coverage is −0.004 and is significant at the 1 percent level). However, this effect
was magnified for women who were in the same age range as the main novela char-
acters displayed the year before. In fact, the coefficient on the interaction between
21
In some years, e.g., 1978, 1985, 1998, there was only one 8 pm novela aired. In this case, the attribution is
unambiguous. In other years there were two novelas, and we chose to assign an “Age match” if at least one of the
two characters was in the age range of the respondent. Results are unaffected if we construct the match with the
mean age of the characters.
Globo coverage and Age match is −0.003 and is significant at the 1 percent level.
Again, the fact that the Age match variable interacts in a nonmonotonic way with a
woman’s age depending on the year of broadcasting increases our confidence that
the effect is not the result of preexisting trends.
One way to interpret the above findings is that Globo programming had a strong
impact on fertility choices because it portrayed a reality with which Brazilian view-
ers could more easily identify. The role of “frame salience” has been underlined in
the communications literature on Brazilian novelas (e.g., Vink 1988), which has
stressed how viewers tend to be more affected by the content of a novela when they
can more easily relate to its main character(s) and to the environment.
VI. Conclusions
This paper has explored the effects of television, and, in particular, the effects of
programs such as soap operas, on women’s fertility. Our analysis draws on the expe-
rience of Brazil, a country where soap opera watching is ubiquitous and cuts across
social classes. We exploit differences in the timing of entry into different markets of
Rede Globo, which until the early 1990s had an effective monopoly on novelas pro-
duction in Brazil, to estimate the impact of Globo availability on fertility choices.
We find that, after controlling for time varying controls and for time-invariant area
characteristics, the presence of the Globo signal leads to significantly lower fertil-
ity. This effect is stronger for women of low socioeconomic status, as measured by
education or durable goods ownership. The effect is also stronger for women who
are in the middle and late phases of their childbearing life, suggesting that television
contributed more to stopping behavior than to delayed first births, consistently with
demographic patterns documented for Brazil. Our empirical analysis on children
naming patterns and on novela content suggests that these results may be interpreted
not only in terms of exposure to television, but also of exposure to the particular
reality portrayed in Brazilian novelas.
Our findings have important policy implications for today’s developing coun-
tries. In societies where literacy is relatively low and newspaper circulation limited,
television plays a crucial role in circulating ideas. Our work suggests that programs
targeted to the culture of the local population have the potential of reaching an
overwhelming amount of people at very low costs, and could thus be used by poli-
cymakers to convey important social and economic messages (e.g., about HIV/
AIDS prevention, children’s education, the rights of minorities, etc.). Recent work
by social psychologists (e.g., Paluck 2009) stresses the role of the media, and of
radio soap operas in particular, as a tool for conflict prevention. Our paper suggests
that this type of program may be usefully employed for a broader set of develop-
ment policies.
Appendix
Table A1—Summary statistics
Mean SD Observations
BIRTH 0.094 0.292 2,102,431
BIRTH (sample aged 15–24) 0.099 0.299 823,441
BIRTH (sample aged 30–49) 0.077 0.266 1,118,651
Globo coverage 0.750 0.433 2,102,431
Years exposed 10–19 (sample aged 30–49) 0.106 0.554 1,118,651
Years exposed 20–29 (sample aged 40–49) 0.136 0.620 602,446
Married 0.551 0.497 2,102,431
Education of head 5.206 4.559 2,102,431
Education of woman 5.696 4.445 2,102,431
Wealth 0.249 1.468 2,102,431
TV owner 0.870 0.336 2,102,431
Electricity 0.900 0.300 2,102,431
Employed 0.413 0.492 2,102,431
Catholic 0.822 0.382 2,102,431
Rural 0.188 0.390 2,102,431
Doctors and nursesa 0.005 0.303 2,102,431
Index of potential consumption 0.021 0.047 2,102,431
Age 28.89 9.60 2,102,431
Age2 926.90 596.51 2,102,431
Stock of children 1.991 2.638 2,102,136
Stock of children2 10.92 27.56 2,102,431
a
Mean and standard deviation multiplied by 100.
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American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2012, 4(4): 1–31

Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil†

By Eliana La Ferrara, Alberto Chong, and Suzanne Duryea*

We estimate the effect of television on fertility in Brazil, where soap

contains our econometric results. Section V discusses the interpretation of our

I. Background on Brazilian Novelas

Rede Globo.—Television became a mass medium in Brazil earlier than in most

Fertility Decline in Brazil.—As mentioned in the introduction, in a few decades

Novelas and Fertility.—One of the ideas advanced in sociological and commu-

II. Empirical Strategy

(1) ​y​ijt​= ​X​ijt​ β + γ ​G​jt​+ ​μ​j​+ ​λ​t​+ ​ε​ijt​,

(2) ​y​ijt​= ​X​ijt​ β + γ ​G​jt​+ δ (​G​jt​ × ​xi​jt​) + ​μ​j​+ ​λ​t​+ ​ε​ijt​ ,

where ​xi​jt​is, alternatively, education and wealth.

y​ijt​= ​X​ijt​ β + ​γ​1​ ​N​ 10−19

Number of AMCs covered by Globo signal

Figure 1. Rede Globo Expansion over Time

B. Rede Globo and Novelas

Decade first reached by signal

Figure 2. Rede Globo Expansion across Space

Table 1—Novela Content Analysis. Characteristics of Main Female Character

Full sample Age of female1 < 50 Age of female1 < 50

Source: Authors’ calculations based on novela content analysis

IV. Econometric Results

Table 2—Globo Coverage and Fertility

[4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9]

Table 3—Heterogeneous Effects, Education, and Wealth

Table 4—Age Effects

In Table 4, we explore another dimension of heterogeneity in impact, that is, age.

Average number of live births

Figure 3. Average Number of Births, by Age Cohort

Figure 4. Timing of Fertility Decline around Year of Globo Entry

Table 5—Possible Selection in Globo Entry

(5) GloboYea​rj​​= ​X​ 1970

Table 6—Placebo Regressions

Individual level simulations (cumulative distribution)

Individual level simulations (density)

Figure 5. Placebo Year of Globo Entry. Distribution of Estimated Coefficients

Panel B. AMC level

Cavenaghi (2002) found to have significant explanatory power in fertility regres-

Table 8—Naming Children after Novela Characters

In panel B, we run a linear probability model and a probit model using as

Table 9—Effects of Novela Content

Dependent variable = 1 if gives birth in year t (BIRTH) [1] [2]

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(1) yijt= Xijt β + γ Gjt+ μj+ λt+ εijt,

(2) yijt= Xijt β + γ Gjt+ δ (Gjt  × xijt) + μj+ λt+ εijt ,

where xijtis, alternatively, education and wealth.

yijt= Xijt β + γ1 N  10−19

(5) GloboYearj= X  1970