CSIRO Research Project
CSIRO Research Project
12 August 2022
Version 0.9
TABLE OF CONTENTS
4. SUSTAINABILITY .................................................................................... 49
4.1 Industry Sustainability Efforts ......................................................................... 50
4.2 Carbon Footprint Modelling ........................................................................... 53
4.3 Prospective CO2 Mitigators ............................................................................. 55
4.4 RFP Criteria ..................................................................................................... 57
9. CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................... 88
APPENDICES ................................................................................................ 90
This Document contains confidential and proprietary information that must be protected in
accordance with relevant Non-Disclosure Agreements.
1.1 Introduction
This study integrates the business objectives with technical considerations which are supported
by lessons learned and best practices to develop and assess the technical aspects of BALTIC.
A successful submarine cable project begins with an initial conceptual design, business and
financial model, project definition and risk analysis which becomes the decision package for
moving the project into a more formal development state including engaging potential investors
and initiating a go to market process (e.g., Invitation to Tender or Request for Proposal).
As stated in the opening paragraph, this study’s objectives are to:
1. Provide a conceptual design to support the System which can be built to needs
2. Provide a DTS (DTS) to substantiate the conceptual design
3. Develop an initial investment cost to be used for stakeholder engagement
4. Identify project technical and delivery risks along with considerations for mitigation
5. Provide a delivery approach and supporting high level schedule
This Feasibility Study when integrated with a business and financial analysis, provided by others,
should provide the necessary input or decision pack for governance decisions on the project’s next
steps. These steps may include:
1. Approval to start the next development stages along with identified parallel issue mitigation
2. Recycle to revisit the materials provided and alter them into a new set of options
3. Cancel to stop further consideration and work of the project
As such, this Feasibility Study will provide supporting information for governance, as well as the
core information for the development of a technical specification for an RFP.
The BALTIC concept is to build a 1,214km (estimated) trunk between Rostock and Helsinki with
24FP. Additional fiber branches of 72km and 63km tied to reconfigurable optical add-drop
multiplexer (ROADM) branching units (BU) will be deployed to the Stockholm and Copenhagen
landing sites, respectively. Fiber Pair map design will be agreed at a later state using customer
needs. BALTIC will be of an open architecture system, meaning that no SLTE is provided for
Customer use and users will be sold spectrum and fiber pairs; each Customer will provide their
own SLTE for which the CLS will need to be designed to accommodate.
Technically, no specific issues have been identified and the system uses a standard and proven
architecture. However, it is important to understand that while generating the route, there were
significant discussions on how to mitigate the various hazards as well as the overall shallow water
depth (maximum cable depth 216m) and how to properly protect the cable. A further detailed
review of route including the shore end routing and burial assessment will be required during
cable route engineering and Marine Survey. The DTS provides a preliminary RPL based on
information available and is suitable to solicit for the project and develop Cable Route Engineering
with the Supplier. While a significant analysis was accomplished, the following areas of route
development should benefit from a high-quality Marine Survey and detailed route engineering:
1. Wind farm development – avoid areas due to crossings and O&M constraints
The BALTIC design is summarized as follows and illustrated in Figure 1 and Figure 2:
1. Design Life of 25 years.
1 Technical specification will be written in terms of spectrum characteristics such as Width and optical budget.
1.5 Sustainability
The number one area to make a submarine cable system more environmentally friendly is using
green energy sources at the shore ends. Once final landings and surrounding amenities have been
established and identified, respectively, sustainable options for power options can be identified.
Incremental improvements mainly through managing fuel consumption can also be found through
As this is a high-level chart, the actual project plan will be developed towards the end of the
procurement phase once Supplier plan of work is provided and integrated. During the integration
of Purchaser and Supplier work plans, there are a couple of critical items to consider and properly
document and place focus:
1. Scope of responsibilities between Purchaser and Supplier along with interdependencies.
2. Third party dependencies such as permits and land acquisition which can impact design.
Identify
Identify Identify Make Key Design Document Design Subsequent Project
Market and
Assumptions Requirements Decisions (KDD) Plan Phases & Activities
Purpose
Supplier, Project,
Feedback Impact
Customer
Analysis & Reiterate
Feedback
As part of this Feasibility Study, the design plan is the core behind all other aspects of this study
including:
1. Cost Model development
2. DTS and RPL generation
3. Risks, issues, and opportunities identification
4. Operations and Maintenance strategy
5. Permitting research
6. Schedule and delivery approach
01 Open Architecture § Each customer will bring their own SLTE and
manage in a way they best see fit.
Maintain proximity to established § Target customer base will OTT and
02
Data Center Telecommunications with Data Center needs.
Rostock, Germany
03 § Based on Desktop Evaluation
54.1772 N / 12.0531 E
Copenhagen, Denmark
04 § Based on Desktop Evaluation
55.5859 N / 12.6716 E
Stockholm, Sweden
05 § Based on Desktop Evaluation
59.2922 N / 18.6952 E
Helsinki, Finland
06 § Based on Desktop Evaluation
60.1461 N / 24.8810 E
Avoid conflict/crossing with
07 § Geopolitical stability
Nordstream
Route should be compatible with
08 § Similar project goals and needs
Sea Lion
09 24FP capable of supporting 20 Tbps § Standard capacity – will also discuss spectrum
10 Selling FP and Spectrum § Stated business objective
Landing sites outages will not impact
11 others (no single landing site can be § Reliability
catastrophic)
§ Optimize cost with a trunk and branch
12 Architecture Trunk & Branch
§ Remove landing interdependency
Trunk Rostock to Helsinki
§ Large sites and most distant
13 12 FP express
§ Evaluate fiber mapping in details
12 FP shared all sights
Branches – Stockholm & § Required for connectivity
14
Copenhagen 12 FP § Evaluate fiber mapping in details
15 Branching Units – ROADM/WSS § Required for connectivity
Table 2 shows that there are limited and typical open issues which will get addressed during
normal engineering and land acquisition processes and finalized during contract forming. The
biggest impacts are related to the final cable route engineering and the associated cable type
selection, burial, and shore end installations. With respect to adding PFE on the branches, the
preliminary RPL appears to be adequate even with future modifications to avoid this need though
continued conversation with the Suppliers will further help to mitigate in case the branch legs
expand more than 20-30km.
However, should the underlying business objectives change such as the system becoming used
for alternate purposes such as long-term sensors and monitoring, then there would be a need to
revisit the entirety of the System KDD and the initial RPL supplied in the attached DTS to ensure it
meets the details of the modified business objectives. For example, if a sensor network were to
be added, the cable system would need to be located where the monitoring needs would be
desired.
2.5.1 General
With twenty-four fiber pairs in the trunk which are fully terminated in Rostock and Helsinki, initial
capacity would be assumed to be 20 Tbps per FP for 480 Tbps in total capacity across the trunk.
The capacity will increase over time as SLTE becomes more efficient in the use of spectrum.
Repeaters will be located between 70 and 80km apart on the trunk resulting in around sixteen
repeaters. Actual repeater spacing and count will be determined by the Supplier as part of the
optical budget design. No repeaters are expected in the branch legs.
Once onshore, the submarine fiber will terminate in a BMH located near the shoreline. Land cable
will be used to extend to a dedicated CLS facility in at each landing where Customers will install
their own SLTE. In addition, the CLS will support domestic carrier installation of terrestrial fiber to
extend the capacity further inland to data centers, carrier facilities and other end users. As noted
previously, a decision to place SLTE in data centers may be made, however, the CLS will remain to
house the PFE though it will be smaller footprint.
Calculations for reliability are further explained below for Dry Plant, Wet Plant and OSP.
For the Dry Plant failure (except OSP), the 99.99% is based upon a MTTR of four hours. Since spares
are expected to be provided on-site for all critical components, the MTTR represents the mean
time required to detect a failure, dispatch a technician, arrive at location, identify, and locate the
faulty element and replace it with a spare. Unavailability is calculated for all elements and the sum
of all the contributions gives the overall unavailability. In the case of a network with protection,
unavailability of the independent paths is multiplied to give the probability of all of them failing
at the same time. From an operational perspective, the focus in on ensuring the four-hour repair
time can be achieved by having the necessary monitoring, trained personnel, available personnel
within reach of the sites and spares on hand. The failure rate or MTBF is driven by manufactures
of equipment and the reliability of their parts over time. MTBF can decrease over time as
equipment ages.
For a Wet Plant failure, the convention is to quote the expected number of repairs requiring a ship
repair during 25 years at the 95% upper confidence level. The time to repair will be measured in
weeks due to the need to mobilize and transit a vessel to the repair site, onboarding the necessary
spares and complete the repair. For example, a repair will require at least two splices each taking
up to 24 hours. This covers failures to cable, repeater, equalizer, or BU which are traffic affecting
and excludes repairs due to damage by external sources (manmade or natural phenomena), which
are impossible to estimate. To minimize the number of estimated ship repairs over the system
life, a certain amount of redundancy is generally included in the repeaters. To ensure the required
amplifier reliability is met, redundant pump laser configurations are employed. Also, the PFE
power rectifiers contain multiple serial-parallel redundant configurations to ensure their reliability
does not affect the operation of the system. The reliability budget is estimated assuming the
Landing Coordinates
Rostock, Germany 54.1772 N / 12.0531 E
Copenhagen, Denmark 55.5859 N / 12.6716 E
Stockholm, Sweden 59.2922 N / 18.6952 E
Helsinki, Finland 60.1461 N / 24.8810 E
BALTIC
Cable Summary
Segment Cable Type Length (km)
Trunk DA 52.187
Trunk SA 196.074
Trunk LWP 965.569
Copenhagen Branch DA 34.438
Copenhagen Branch SA 28.486
Stockholm Branch DA 34.438
Stockholm Branch SA 28.486
Total Subsea System Length 1,347.57
It is important to remember that at the shore ends, the CLS sites will need to be selected and are
currently estimated to be within 5km of the shore landing and BMH. These sites will need to be
identified based on:
§ Land availability
§ Constructability
§ Access to utilities
§ Access to terrestrial network
§ Access for travel and deliveries
Installation of the BUs will be accomplished via normal methods and is easily achievable as the
separation between them well exceeds the 2-3 times water depth minimum.
2.5.2.5 Repeaters
Due to length of the trunk, repeaters will be used in BALTIC. The anticipated number of repeaters
is approximately 16, based on a 75km average spacing. One or two additional repeaters may be
utilized near the BUs to ensure adequate optical power on the branch legs. The System Supplier
will determine this in their optical model. Likewise, final placement and quantity of repeaters will
be calculated while ensuring an acceptable OSNR during system planning during the procurement
phase to ensure the correct number of repeaters are manufactured and priced. It is anticipated
that spacing could up to 90km given the roughly 1,200km length of the system as compared to a
longer transoceanic system.
As proposed, the BALTIC is a 24FP system and all repeaters in the trunk will amplify all FPs. If the
number of FP is changed, the repeaters will need additional modules and become more expensive.
CTB BMH
Submarine Cable
Terrestrial Land Cable
System SLTE
Interface
Power Feed Line
Optical Fibers
PFE Sea
Earth
CLS
Sea
Earth
General
Presented is summary guidance on the site plans to aid in completing the study and visualizing
the BALTIC within the CSDP. As land has not been selected, there are many factors which will
influence each site plan. Efforts will be made to keep them as common as possible, but differences
20.00
Figure 9 : Site Plan Examples
2.5.4.3 Buildings
All CLS buildings will meet local building codes and have:
1. Adequate floor space for the initial system capacity with the ability to expand to the ultimate
system capacity in the future;
2. Adequate floor loading for the ultimately system capacity. Land cable entrance facilities, also
known as the cable vault;
3. Access to local telecommunication carrier infrastructure;
4. Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) to support the initial installation and the
ability to be expanded to the ultimate configuration;
5. A fire detection and suppression system;
6. Connectivity to local utilities (e.g., power, water, sewer, telephone, internet, cable TV);
7. Adequate DC battery plant that can be expanded in the future;
8. Standby AC power generation with fuel tank(s);
9. A marshalling area with doors sized to receive equipment;
10. Adequate parking for cars and trucks including delivery of bulky items and fuel;
11. Adequate HSSE compliant workspace and furniture for personnel while onsite;
12. Adequate storage space for spare parts and test equipment;
HVAC
0.96
DC/AC
0.60
Rectifiers Rectifiers Rectifiers Accessory Accessory
Inverter
1.04
1.00
Fire Fire Fire
OCI OCI SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE
0.60
HVAC 1.30 OCI OCI SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE
1.00
SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE
12.00
0.60
HVAC SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE
1.00
Storage
SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE
0.60
HVAC SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE
Spares
1.00
Server Server Server SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE SLTE
1.10
HVAC
Misc. Misc. Misc.
0.90
HVAC
0.85
2.5.4.4 Electrical
Power
Reliable power will be required at each landing station. At the trunk sites this power is necessary
to power the entire trunk though there is resiliency at both sites. At the two branch legs, like at
the trunk sites, the power will also power the CLS systems, SLTE for the Customers, NMS,
Terrestrial transmission gear and other tools and equipment.
Despite the reliable power, to mitigate potential system outages, the CLS sites will have enough
standby power for continued operations if commercial power is lost. This will be provided through
a natural gas fed generator (assuming natural gas is available – otherwise diesel). Each generator
is to be sized for the full engineered AC power load of the CLS with a spare capacity of 20%. The
generators will use piped in natural gas to save space and simplify fuel management. The
generators will be integrated through automatic transfer switches and auto-start capability.
Alarms will be triggered to notify the NOC whenever there are power issues including low fuel for
the generator.
Batteries will be used to power critical transmission and network equipment while generators
power on and balance their load to maintain constant communications. Due to potential
inconsistencies in power (dirty power), transmission equipment within the CLS will run off the
batteries which are under constant recharging.
The CLS requirements listed in Table 10 were developed for planning purposes. These
requirements are subject to change as the Purchaser works through the procurement phase. CLS
system planning for power shall consider immediate and long-term power requirements such as
2.5.4.5 Environmental
The HVAC system will have duplicate systems capable of providing appropriate climate control
(temperature and humidity). They will operate in a lead lag mode to address short term cooling
requirements where one system is unable to manage the necessary load. Systems will be sized to
cover the system operating at full capacity and all equipment racks full (e.g., BALTIC at full
operating capacity with maximum SLTE) in addition, to multiple personnel working. An analysis
for the need for dehumidifiers may be required if the heat load is too small initially and the HVAC
units cool the building too quickly without maintaining the proper humidity.
A temperature monitoring system with high and low point shutdowns as well as humidity levels
will be implemented to give early warning of pending failures and to protect equipment of
extreme environmental conditions.
During building design, air flow and fresh air intake will have to be determined. As part of this,
mitigation for salt laden air which will damage equipment and corrode the CLS buildings will have
to be considered. Care in construction and installation with proper testing will take place to
mitigate leak hazards which is a common risk.
2.5.5.2 Standards
This section identifies the standards that must be met to implement BALTIC. Based on the DTS
and assumptions agreed to for this study, the following system requirements have been defined
for planning purposes only and are subject to change as latest information and opportunities are
discovered.
International Standards
Standards developed by the following international organizations will impact any submarine cable
system design and implementation:
§ European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI)
§ Institute for Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) standards
§ International Cable Protection Committee (ICPC) recommendations
§ International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL)
§ International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC)
§ International Marine Contractors Association (IMCA)
§ International Organization for Standardization (ISO)
§ International Seabed Authority (ISA)
§ International Telecommunication Union – Telecommunications Standardization (ITU-T)
recommendations
Local Standards
Local standards must be adhered to, such as the following:
§ Local and national Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) standards
§ Local electrical codes
Discipline Responsibilities
Operations 1. Keep systems up and running
2. Minor projects and ongoing maintenance
3. Respond to and resolve incidents
4. Support Engineering & Provision with resources and information
5. Support other disciplines with relevant information and field resources
6. Maintain operational records
7. Maintain operational resources including field.
8. Complete Move-Add-Changes (MAC)
9. Maintain compliance with licensing and permits.
10. Maintain field operational sites (e.g., CLS)
11. Purchaser service/help desk
12. Dry Plant Spares management, strategies, and replenishment (including stored
at Warehouse, Depot)
Engineering 1. Plan and execute small scale projects
& Provision 2. Engineering of new and changes to services.
3. Engineering for provisioning MAC (implemented by operations)
4. Monitor usage and performance trends and propose response and upgrades
(e.g., Capacity planning, systemic issues
5. Develop solutions to cyber threats working with HSSE cyber lead and
operations.
6. Wet Plant Spares management, strategies, and replenishment (including
stored at Warehouse, Depot)
7. Manage Wet Plant and major repairs
8. Wet Plant Maintenance authority
9. OSP maintenance and repair program
10. Develops routine maintenance, inspection, and testing programs (executed by
operations with E&P oversight)
Logistics & 1. Coordinate and cause to occur movement of materials and personnel using
Scheduling independent methods (e.g., flights, transporters).
2. Coordinate accommodations for deployed/field personnel.
3. Support import and export of materials.
4. Interface and coordinate with offshore sites for movement of personnel and
materials including any prerequisites and scheduling
5. Warehouse inventory management
3.2.1 Overview
As noted in the previous section most of the incidents will be related to the Dry Plant and the CLS
of BALTIC. For this reason, support of this section should be properly staffed using internal and
contract resources. In addition, these resources are deployed near the point of work so they may
respond in a reasonable time. For example, the BALTIC field technicians supporting the CLS, should
be located within one hour time (even in severe weather) to get to the CLS once dispatched so
they can make the necessary repairs within the four-hour performance metric identified.
In addition, the engineering activities are separated from the operational personnel to allow field
personnel to be outsourced and to ensure engineering follows a defined process which minimizes
field engineering. However, engineering and operations must work together closely.
The core components of the dry plant O&M model will be:
§ 24x7 centralized NOC monitoring all aspects of BALTIC and to take Purchaser calls
§ Deployed technicians to complete field inspection, maintenance and repairs as directed
§ Engineering team for escalation of incidents
§ Contractor utilization for non-unique aspects such as building and OSP work
§ Documented strategies for onshore sub systems as summarized below
To calculate the O&M costs, this proposed model has been costed and integrated into the financial
analysis. Current estimates are around [$2.5]M per annum.
3.2.6 Transmission
The primary hands-on work of the field technicians will be to maintain the terminal equipment or
including the PFE. For this reason, the field technicians will need advanced training in this area to
make them competent to investigate, interrogate, configure, remove, and install cards and
subcomponents in accordance with manufacturer guidance. In addition, they will need direct
access to advanced support such as those available from the System Supplier. Note that for the
BALTIC, SLTE under Purchaser management maybe limited however, Purchaser may wish to offer
some level of remote support for customers as part of their operational package and to offset
some of the costs associated with distributed field maintenance technicians. In addition, as part
of operations, there may be the need to help identify spectrum conflicts created by different
customer SLTE systems and coordinate remedy.
As part of the System Supply contract, an extended System Support contract should be put into
place including remote access for the contractor to remotely access systems. Ample spares onsite
will be required, coverage under warranty of failed components and ongoing support system
components, at reasonable prices, plus firmware and software upgrades.
3.2.7 Training
Training will have to be defined for all personnel to ensure they have the right level from
awareness to expert. System Supplier input will be critical. Training will include online, on-site,
and offsite. The Supplier will normally include a training package as an option as part of the supply
contract. This normally includes engineering, technician, and jointer training. However, jointing
may be left to specialist companies and not normal operations personnel.
3.2.8 Security
The NOC will monitor primary security using access controls systems, surveillance cameras, door
monitoring and other forms of intrusion detection. Upon detection of a security event, the field
technicians and the local security company or law enforcement will be notified and asked to
respond at a level consistent with the detected event.
3.3.1 Overview
A full analysis and recommendation for wet plant maintenance was not included in the Feasibility
Study. A more comprehensive investigation into talking with potential entities for wet plant
maintenance is needed to complete a comprehensive analysis including cost and response times.
The selection of this solution will also drive the preferred location for a submarine cable depot
System owners must consider how best to cover the risk of faults to the submerged plant over the
design life of the system. There are three standard approaches:
1. Enter the system in to one or more maintenance agreements or maintenance zones that
2. Negotiate a private contract with a single marine service provider such as Baltic Offshore,
but this might be prohibitively expensive compared to the maintenance agreement options;
3. Wait for a cable fault and then go to the spot market to find a repair ship.
It is not recommended for the spot market solution especially on a system that is a single trunk
backbone due to the time to repairs can be extended and the system downtime that would result
in the event of a fault would probably be too great for customers to have confidence in the system
if this was the marine maintenance regimen.
The use of a maintenance agreement or private agreement will most likely be the preferred
solution for BALTIC. While the private agreement with an entity such as Baltic Offshore may not
be as cost effective, the time to respond and repair may be improved and the time and cost to
mobilize might be beneficial of the private solution.
For a maintenance agreement, the oldest of these Club Zones is the Atlantic Cable Maintenance
Agreement (ACMA). ACMA was founded in 1965 and the other Zones, formed later, are modelled
on the ACMA agreement. The Baltic Sea does not immediately shows as being part of this
agreements so it would have to be vetted during a detailed review.
In addition to these Zone agreements, several alternative Private Maintenance Agreements have
been set up to complement and, in some cases, compete with the Zones. The global coverage of
Private Maintenance Agreements is shown in Figure 12.
As previously stated, most system owners enter their systems into a maintenance agreement. The
annual cost of marine maintenance, known as the “Standing Charge,” the size of which is based
on the length of the system included in the agreement. The calculation being about $200 per km
for the current agreements in the Atlantic. In addition, they build up reserves from income to
cover repair costs, typically based on one repair every two to five years. Subject to the type,
extent, and location of the fault, plus the distance to the ship’s base port, the cost can be
calculated on the daily cost of the repair ship, known as “Running Costs” that are on the order of
$28-30K per day and are typically estimated to be on the order of $1.0-1.5M per repair event.
3.3.3.5 Restoration
The normal PFE configuration for BALTIC is double end feed, one CLS applying negative voltage to
line and the other positive voltage to line with a null point of zero voltage relative to earth in mid
ocean. Depending on the location of a shunt fault in the system, the two PFEs should balance to
the fault allowing revenue earning traffic to continue until the repair ship has reached the AOO,
minimizing system downtime. This would be what is called a ‘Planned Repair.’
In the event of a complete cable break, the system could still be powered, but traffic would be
lost on all DSL(s). Therefore, customers will have to develop their contingency plans in case of an
outage on the BALTIC.
3.4 Conclusion/Recommendation
BALTIC will be maintainable. Significant effort will be required to define and implement the final
support model, and this will evolve as lessons are learned. Development of resources should start
by the start of construction. This will allow the resources to get on the job training and learn the
specifics of their system prior to it becoming operational critical. In addition, during this period,
the engineering team will begin to develop their O&M strategies.
Wet plant maintenance could be a larger challenge to get into place unless existing agreements
are expanded to cover BALTIC. A dedicated effort during system engineering and manufacturing
will need to be undertaken to identify and contract with the ACMA, APMA or a local party that
offers best value for money. As part of this, different repair scenarios will need to be identified
and gaps closed to ensure a timely repair can be made. Finally, a choice of spares depot(s) will
need to be made, based on the best strategic location for the BALTIC submerged plant spares.
Of course, the above implementation is dependent upon having the proper administrative teams
and personnel in place to support these efforts. The growth of these teams and especially
administrative staff can be staged as efforts grow and become better defined. The use of outside
support including legal counsel should be considered to improve delivery efficiency.
Orange Marine is constructing a new vessel, the Sophie Germain, which will specialize in cable
repair and replace their oldest vessel in the fleet, the Raymond Croze, launched in 1984.
4.1.5 Prysmian
In May 2021, the Prysmian Group announced working for sustainability with its ECO CABLE, a
business strategy consistent with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. ECO CABLE is the first
green label in the cable industry and vouches for the greenness of their cables.
(https://subtelforum.com/prysmian-working-for-sustainability-with-eco-cable/)
In July 2021, the Prysmian Group commented on the importance of energy efficient fiber
solutions, highlighting the need for operators to prioritize green solutions for the post Covid-19
era, with optical fiber significantly outperforming its rivals in terms of consumption. By deploying
optical fiber networks that use eco-friendly materials, Prysmian believe operators will reduce
energy consumption and cut out unnecessary emissions across the supply chain, according to their
official press release. As countries across the continent prepare for the post Covid-19 era, quality
passive optical networks will be essential to enable their digital transformation.
(https://subtelforum.com/prysmian-group-on-the-importance-of-energy-efficient-fiber-solutions/)
The provided model is preliminary. During each phase of the project, the model should be updated
in terms of algorithms, assumptions and unit demands based on input form the various Suppliers.
At all times, APTelecom should look to expand the model to make it more holistic and capture
additional areas based on the materiality of the relevant emissions. The client should identify a
Sustainability Leader for the Project that is responsible for this module and leading discussions
with the engineering teams and Suppliers to complete it. As part of this, any decision which is
deemed to have an impact on the outcome with respect to sustainability should be logged
including calculations on the impact3.
2tCO2e stands for tonnes (t) of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent (e) where "Tonne" is a metric ton, or 2,200 pounds, and
“Carbon dioxide equivalent” is a standard unit for counting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, such as carbon dioxide or
methane.
3 Decisions can be combined and detailed as one such as if comparing two routing options with several different gaps.
One could then be labeled – “optimal time and cost” and the other as “optimal sustainability” and the differences
identified along with an impact in tabular form for future reference.
Total 64,311.58
The results of the assumptions and inputs to the project sustainability model resulted in a grand
total of 64,311.58 tCO2e emitted during the totality of the project’s life.
The use of carbon credits has been avoided for this project as they do not directly reduce carbon
footprint. Actual reduction of the carbon footprint is the desired objective the BALTIC
sustainability initiative.
4.3.2 Survey
The Survey calculation was based on both shallow and deep water surveys but not in-shore survey,
and the figure was determined by examining the estimated route length, estimated portion of
route where multiple passes are required, expected active survey days, and applying the tCO2e
produced by a typical survey boat over that period. It was determined that a survey for BALTIC
could expect to produce 290.1 tCO2e over the course of the project.
A mitigating factor for this figure would be to operate the survey boat, or boats, at their optimal
fuel burn rate, rather than their fastest operating speeds. This could potentially add to the overall
duration of the project but would save on fuel and in turn reduce overall emissions.
12
10
0
LW SA DA
tCO2e/Km
Lightweight protected cable represents 42% of the system and is manufactured with 1,774.23
tCO2e generated, Single Armor represents 25% of the system and is manufactured with 1,062.164
tCO2e generated, and Double Armor represents 33% of the system and is manufactured with
1,384.798 tCO2e generated. The total tCO2e generated during manufacturing is 4,221.2.
The tCO2e cost of manufacturing is a hard figure, the industry has yet to address this aspect of
concern. The real opportunity for mitigation falls to maximizing the cable routing, optimizing the
use of Lightweight cable throughout the system. It was determined that the tCO2e cost of
manufacturing the fiber core was negligible and had minor impact on the total system cost.
4.3.4 Installation
The Installation figure was determined by examining the estimated route length, estimated
crossings, estimated marine operations, expected installation days, and applying the tCO2e
produced by a typical cable vessel over that period. It was determined that an installation for
BALTIC could expect to produce 1,908.06 tCO2e over the course of the project.
There are several mitigations that System Supplier could propose though some may adversely
impact cost mostly through additional ship days. Examples of footprint optimizations for marine
vessels include:
§ Optimization of selected vessels to newer, more fuel-efficient variety;
§ Operating the cable vessel, or vessels, at their optimal fuel burn rate, rather than their
fastest operating speeds;
§ Select cleaner bunker fuels to reduce emissions in consideration of availability;
4.3.5 Lifecycle
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration “emissions from electricity generation
vary by type of fuel/energy source and by type and efficiency of electric power plants. The amount
of CO2 produced per kWh during any period will vary according to the sources of electricity
supplied to the electric power grid during that time. Therefore, electricity-related CO2 emissions
and CO2 emission factors will vary hourly, daily, monthly, and annually.”
As such, APTelecom has performed a rough calculation of the expected energy cost to run a typical
shore end station in a given year.
It is estimated that a typical shore end configuration will require 1.4M kilowatt hours (kWh) in a
year. Assuming that the energy is derived from natural gas, the shore will require 578.5 tCO2e be
generated based on a value of 1.4M kWh per 1.275M pounds tCO2e. There are four shore ends
being considered, the number is multiplied by four and then multiplied by 25 resulting in a total
of 57,850 tCO2e generated over an expected life cycle of 25 years. Further, if the shore ends are
powered by coal fired plants, the tCO2e generated is increased 2.5 times, or 144,625 tCO2e.
The mitigation consideration, or greatest factor to tCO2e savings, is powering the BALTIC by a
sustainable source. By seeking power generated through the sustainable power, roughly 89% of
the tCO2e generated for the project can be saved.
Other lifecycle costs that were not considered at this point due to limited data include:
§ One shop repair during life
§ O&M including NOC office space, systems, and travel
§ Refresh of Dry Plant
Value Weights
0 Item N/A, or not in RFP
1 Unimportant
2 Notable
3 Important
4 Very Important
5 Critical
Each Supplier’s response will be assigned a score based upon his proposal. If a Supplier does not
address a criterion, that criterion will be given a score of zero (except for the additional criteria).
The scoring is based upon a scale of zero to five as follows:
Value Scoring
0 Does not meet requirements; no evidence of ability to meet requirement
1 Low evidence of ability to meet requirement
2 Partially meets requirements
3 Meets requirements - Baseline Scoring
4 Meets requirements with some "nice to have" additions
5 Significantly exceeds requirements
APTelecom will determine a series of questions to be posed to the Suppliers during the RFP
process. These questions will determine the Suppliers’ current long-term plans for sustainability
and willingness to work with the cleint for sustainable solutions for the BALTIC. As evidenced by
the Suppliers’ responses in section Error! Reference source not found., efforts are very disparate
and will need very high-level criteria to find any common factors for comparison.
Table 16: Sustainability RFP Recommended Requirements
5.1 Overview
Applicable data has been gathered and assembled of the BALTIC to provide a high-level review of
the possible permitting process and requirements. Review of the information provided shows an
understanding of the process and requirements for permits and applications. A summary review
of the overall permitting process is below, which is meant as a summary/overview table and
should not be considered complete
5.2 General
The following section generally and then specifically describes the possible permits and regulatory
requirements required as well as, assesses the risk and environmental concerns and processes for
cable installation of BALTIC. As in the case with virtually all submarine cable projects, the
permitting process is likely to be in the critical path for BALTIC and thus, fundamental to its timely
and successful implementation. The importance of permitting cannot be overstated. Sufficient
time must be allowed to consider the complexity of the permitting procedures.
The project coordinator must have a sufficiently detailed project plan so that the impacts can be
assessed and the ability to implement the EIA can be verified. There is a fee associated for the
service which is discussed on a case-by-case basis. The project coordinator pays the ELY Centre a
fee for the EIA program and report. The fee is based on the government decree on the Centre for
Economic Development, Transport and the Environment’s services subject to a fee. The amount
of the fee is adjusted annually.
6.3 Planning
Typical Duration: 3-6 Months
Objectives:
§ Develop Design Plan
§ Complete DTS
§ Develop Implementation Approach
6.4 Procurement
Typical Duration: 3-4 Months
Work Streams:
§ Develop Technical Requirements
§ Define Terms & Conditions
§ Determine Initiation to Tender Process
§ Complete Tender Package
6.5 Permitting
Typical Duration: 8-12 Months
Work Streams:
§ Develop All Inclusive Permitting Plan
§ Prepare, Submit and Manage Permit Applications & Compliance Requirements
§ Identify Permit Compliance Requirements (Environmental Studies, Mitigation Plans,
Observation)
§ Complete required environmental studies
Permitting represents one of the larger aggregated risks to the project and will consume
significant time and effort. The risk on permits include time to acquire or changes in design driven
by permit approvals and allowances. It is important for Purchaser to seek support in developing
and executing a sound permitting plan. This plan should take all permits into consideration,
including operation of BALTIC, operating permits for the installation of the submarine cable, as
6.9 Manufacturing
Typical Duration: 4-15 Months
Work Streams:
§ Manufacture Wet Plant
§ Manufacture Dry Plant
§ Manufacture Site Facilities
§ Conduct Test & Acceptance for Purchaser
As the system design is being developed, the Supplier will begin manufacturing Wet Plant and Dry
Plant. This manufacturing including system assembly, testing, and loading at the Supplier’s site
prior to cable loading.
While this plan shows manufacturing taking 6-9 months beyond the Marine Survey and System
Design manufacturing will start prior to this date. For example, systems like line monitoring
equipment, PFE, CLS buildings and systems will be minimally impacted by the results of these
processes and the adjustments can be easily made. As such, the manufacturing of these will begin
shortly after System Supplier is onboarded and necessary engineering is completed in
consideration of lead times. Cable manufacturing will also start early and final quantities, system
assembly and testing are completed in the last months of the manufacturing process based on
the final results. Furthermore, acquisition of feedstock (e.g., steel for armoring) will start with
contract award to mitigate delays in manufacturing. Fortunately, most items are common across
system so working in advance has little holistic risk to the Supplier.
7.2.1 Overview
Based on the proposed O&M methodology provided In Section 4, an operating cost model has
been developed. Table 19 provides a preliminary OpEx budget which is the annual costs for
BALTIC. It has been assumed operating costs year on year will be flat (exclusive of inflation)
through organizational optimization. APTelecom believes figures provided are reasonable for
initial project budgeting but will need to be refined as the BALTIC project moves forward. Repairs
have been assumed to occur once per 3-4 years on the submerged plant and a prorated amount
has been used to estimate annual operating cost.
8.1 Overview
Risks for BALTIC can be broken into two categories. The first category are the solution risks which
are about the long-term sustainability and ability to meet the business case objectives. The second
area with respect to the risks related to the immediate project delivery. Separating the risks into
this category is critical as the solution risks need to have more involvement from the stakeholders
through governance whereas the delivery risks are managed by the project delivery team and are
“reported” as appropriate and only escalated when they become significant and need further
support.
As such, from a sustainability approach, the solution risks focus on:
§ Design & Quality
§ Operations and Maintenance
§ Permits in Principle
§ Major cost variances
Whereas the delivery risks focus on the project workstreams and items like:
§ Delays in acquiring land, permits, materials, personnel, installation
§ Cost management within allocation including contingency
§ Minor quality management concerns
This report does not address commercial risks associated with meeting capacity sales targets
assumed in the business plan as that is being handled outside the scope of this Feasibility Study.
Such commercial risks are inherent to a submarine cable project and may be mitigated by
promptly launching an effective strategy to gage private interest in equity investments in BALTIC
and to close pre-sale capacity IRU purchase agreements (i.e., sales that take place pre-CIF and pre-
RFS dates).
Design
Route is determined (e.g., Low § Unacceptable route is § Follow standard project
Marine Survey) to be too found for geopolitical or processes and complete quality
difficult or expensive reliability reasons Marine Survey
Unable to secure land rights in Low § Unable to deliver capacity § Initiate early programs for
desired markets where required permitting and land acquisition
§ Delays in revenue per proposed project
methodology
§ Identify alternate viable landing
sites within business objectives
Unable to secure permitting in Medium § Unable to deliver capacity § Assign dedicated resources to
planned time where required manage.
§ Delays in revenue § Initiate land acquisition
immediately
§ Defined confidence level prior to
RFP execution
§ Purchaser to have funding
available to backup permit plans
System unable to meet optical Low § Extra cost § Additional repeaters or other
spectrum requirements for solutions to adapt system
capacity § Utilize standard assumption –
nothing special
Operating and Maintenance
Wet Plant failure rate is too Low § Extra cost and time § Follow standard project
frequent and too long to repair § Lost revenue during processes and complete quality
(e.g., lack of sufficient burial) outages Marine Survey
§ Stakeholder terminates for § Ensure proper maintenance in
cause – revenue loss place
§ Ensure property warranty in
place for Supplier equipment.
Time to repair wet plant failures Medium § Lost revenue during § Cable awareness program
is too long outages § Strong NOC operations
§ Stakeholder terminates for §
cause – revenue loss
Unable to maintain good NOC Medium § Poor availability and lost § Strong team leadership
operations including personnel revenue during outages § Strong onboarding and training
and tools § Stakeholder terminates for § Competitive compensation
cause – revenue loss § Corporate oversight of
performance
Cost Management
Cost comes in higher than Medium § Cost outside business case § Utilize Supplier’s standard
expected (excluding inflation) tolerance solutions (do not customize/over
specify)
§ Competitive tender
Cost comes in higher than High § Cost outside business case § Utilize a shared risk pricing
expected due to inflation tolerance schedule.
§ Increase cost in financial
modelling.
8.4 Conclusion
Based on the information available at this time, APTelecom has accomplished a risk analysis for
BALTIC. This assessment considered cybersecurity, system design, technology, construction
contract, geotechnical, operations and maintenance, environmental, permitting, project plan of
work and schedule. The likelihood of occurrence of these risks is considered low and in worst case
in most cases.
9. CONCLUSIONS
The proposed BALTIC cable system is found to be technically feasible with special considerations
given the complex and shallow water of the Baltic Sea. Over the 25-year life of the system, there
will be sufficient capacity to support OTT, internet services providers, telecommunications
companies and Hyperscalers. The BALTIC will require close to three years to implement, (i.e., RFS
in 2025 or 2026) subject to System Supplier’s project capacity which will be confirmed during RFP.
The system technical solution is like other successful systems and Suppliers have had limited
concerns.
While in the procurement phase which is next phase, the project should focus on securing landing
sites and adjusting the cable route or RPL in accordance with the final coordinates of the
associated BMH and CLS.
The BALTIC design has been based on using proven solutions and there is confidence a 24FP
solution can be implemented if requested and financially viable. Therefore, the technical risk is
average to the extent noted previously especially around the near shore approach conflicts and
burial. Overall system protection is somewhat at risk but can be mitigated through other choices
including armoring and cable placement for avoidance. Deploying submarine fiber system in Baltic
Sea has been proven though there are opportunities for an improved solution including landing
sites selection and cable protection. As this is a basic point-to-point trunk system with two
branching units, the probability of changes outside RPL optimization and final onshore locations
is minimal.
It is APTelecom’s experience that most submarine system developments encounter some level of
constraint concerning funding and timing for the implementation of the system. This cost will have
an impact on securing stakeholders, customers, and funding. In addition, there are risks as it
relates to permitting and land acquisition which need to be addressed early.
It is these activities and their respective timing that pose the greatest risk to this project.
Developing BALTIC in a fashion that is economically feasible will depend greatly on how effectively
Purchaser manages these activities and their subsequent timing for completion.
APTelecom recommends BALTIC is built using a turnkey Supplier and that Purchaser solicit support
for the above identified critical activities and recommends the following next steps for the project:
1. Seek support resources to help with these critical activities and especially permitting -
resources should have extensive experience as it relates to submarine cable system
development
2. Establish a POW that considers these activities and sets a realistic schedule for the
implementation of the system
3. Accelerate the procurement, permitting and land acquisition phases, where possible
4. Execute the plan with great attention, care, and resolve