Number of Food

Production
Year Production Value employed in Average Annual Inflation
Volume
Aquaculture Expenditure rate
(Million)
1993 30,163.20 254,003 772,082 8,601 7.60%
1994 35,002.70 254,738 791,444 10,075 9.00%
1995 33,658.10 255,303 825,327 12,839 8.10%
1996 33,346.70 256,302 1,007,676 15,479 8.30%
1997 27,288.80 256,302 984,439 17,354 5.10%
1998 26,429.50 256,380 997,841 23,854 9.80%
1999 29,046.10 258,480 1,048,679.20 26,847 6.60%
2000 32,147.90 258,643 1,100,902.30 28,722 4.40%
2001 36,883.40 258,532 1,220,456 30,999 6.10%
2002 35,418.20 258,684 1,338,393 26,798 3.00%
2003 37,199.10 258,724 1,454,503.45 32,932 3.50%
2004 44,822.30 226,195 1,717,026.70 28,462 6.00%
2005 49,169.80 226,736 1,895,847.31 25,939 7.70%
2006 55,671.90 226,904 2,092,275.80 38,711 6.24%
2007 61,597.30 227,056 2,219,826.18 60,042 2.83%
2008 81,669.50 227,303 2,407,697.92 94,358 8.26%
2009 81,493.40 226,594 2,477,392.03 81,422 4.13%
2010 82,857.50 226,886 2,545,967.13 86,239 3.88%
2011 85,996.40 227,098 2,608,119.84 56,012 4.65%
2012 92,289.90 227,202 2,541,965.39 88,186 3.17%
2013 93,731.20 227,703 2,373,386.49 94,166 3.00%
2014 93,949.00 228,843 2,337,604.96 86,807 3.60%
2015 93,340.90 227,330 2,348,161.21 99,788 0.70%
2016 91,141.90 226,343 2,200,913.34 99,688 1.30%
2017 100,706.80 199,119 2,237,790.76 112,420 2.90%
2018 110,329.30 209,058 2,304,365.31 122,083 5.20%
2019 117,834.70 217,198 2,358,333.16 131,579 5.20%
2020 114,383.80 233,725 2,322,905.57 179,742 2.40%
2021 128,564.60 247,164 2,246,315.78 138,882 3.90%
2022 132,294.87 260,000 2,349,252.01 144,802 5.80%
 Municipality
Fish Ports in PH
Fishing Bancas

367,838 382
367,922 393
368,045 402
368,168 412
368,291 415
368,414 482
382,723 475
387,575 462
398,731 493
405,685 509
415,440 525
423,327 540
432,460 553
440,763 560
449,619 580
458,106 598
466,839 609
475,408 623
484,086 637
492,691 532
400,320 438
469,807 375
120,537 418
192,351 363
233,745 305
258,956 247
266,140 197
267,807 236
219,126 221
230,899 201
 PRODUCTI... NUMBER_O... PRODUCTI... AVERAGE_... FOOD_INFL... MUNICIPALI... NUMBER
Mean 68947.63 231991.4 1837563. 66794.27 0.050787 364557.1 439.46
Median 71545.35 227416.5 2210370. 58027.00 0.048750 385161.8 450.00
Maximum 132294.9 260000.0 2608120. 179742.0 0.098000 493674.0 637.12
Minimum 26429.50 74537.00 772082.0 8601.000 0.007000 120537.0 197.40
Std. Dev. 34461.54 34282.25 646380.1 47743.04 0.023370 100755.7 129.96
Skewness 0.243463 -3.288538 -0.482878 0.541347 0.232388 -0.809905 -0.4060
Kurtosis 1.663024 16.02795 1.558489 2.227741 2.225822 2.633005 2.2004

Jarque-Bera 2.530752 266.2317 3.763294 2.210763 1.019212 3.448086 1.6235

Probability 0.282133 0.000000 0.152339 0.331085 0.600732 0.178344 0.4440

Sum 2068429. 6959742. 55126890 2003828. 1.523600 10936713 13184.

Sum Sq. Dev. 3.44E+10 3.41E+10 1.21E+13 6.61E+10 0.015839 2.94E+11 489799

Observations 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

2,800,000

2,400,000

2,000,000

1,600,000

1,200,000

800,000

400,000

0
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Production Value
Number of employed in Aquaculture
Production Volume
AVERAGE ANNUAL EXPENDITURE (Million)
Food Inflation rate
MUNICIPALITY FISHING BANCAS
NUMBER OF FISH PORTS

SPSS

Statistics
 Number of
employed Average
in Annual Food Municipality
Production Aquacultur Production Expenditure Inflation Fishing Fish Ports
Value e Volume (Million) rate Bancas in PH
N Valid 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Missing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

PRODUCTI... NUMBER_O... PRODUCTI... AVERAGE_... FOOD_INFL... MUNICIPALI... FISH_PORT...

Mean 68947.63 238144.9 1837563. 66794.27 0.050787 364347.4 439.4685
Median 71545.35 228136.5 2210370. 58027.00 0.048750 385148.8 450.0000
Maximum 132294.9 260000.0 2608120. 179742.0 0.098000 492691.4 637.1223
Minimum 26429.50 199119.0 772082.0 8601.000 0.007000 120537.0 197.4077
Std. Dev. 34461.54 17510.53 646380.1 47743.04 0.023370 100538.3 129.9602
Skewness 0.243463 -0.166105 -0.482878 0.541347 0.232388 -0.815556 -0.406078
Kurtosis 1.663024 1.932442 1.558489 2.227741 2.225822 2.639102 2.200458

Jarque-Bera 2.530752 1.562554 3.763294 2.210763 1.019212 3.488464 1.623581

Probability 0.282133 0.457821 0.152339 0.331085 0.600732 0.174779 0.444062

Sum 2068429. 7144348. 55126890 2003828. 1.523600 10930423 13184.06

Sum Sq. Dev. 3.44E+10 8.89E+09 1.21E+13 6.61E+10 0.015839 2.93E+11 489799.7

Observations 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
. MUNICIPALI... NUMBER_O...
364557.1 439.4685
385161.8 450.0000
493674.0 637.1223
120537.0 197.4077
100755.7 129.9602
-0.809905 -0.406078
2.633005 2.200458

3.448086 1.623581
0.178344 0.444062

10936713 13184.06
2.94E+11 489799.7

30 30

20 22

SPSS
CIPALI... FISH_PORT...
4347.4 439.4685
5148.8 450.0000
2691.4 637.1223
0537.0 197.4077
0538.3 129.9602
15556 -0.406078
39102 2.200458

88464 1.623581
74779 0.444062

30423 13184.06
3E+11 489799.7

30 30
 Production Value
140,000.00 300,000

Number of Employed Aqua-farmers

120,000.00
250,000
100,000.00
Production Volume

200,000
80,000.00
Production Value 150,000
60,000.00
100,000
40,000.00
50,000
20,000.00

0.00 0

Year

Production Volume
3,000,000
200,000
2,500,000
180,000

Average Annual Expenditure

Production Volume

2,000,000 160,000
140,000
1,500,000 120,000
Production Volume 100,000
1,000,000 80,000
60,000
500,000 40,000
0 20,000
0

Year

Food Inflation rate

12.00%

10.00%
Food Inflation rate

8.00%

6.00%
Food Inflation rate
4.00%

2.00%

0.00%

Year
 6.00%
Food Inflation rate

Food Inflati
4.00%

2.00%

0.00%

Year

Fish Ports in PH
700
600
Number of Fish Ports

500
400
Fish Ports in PH
300
200
100
0

Year
 Number of Employed in Aquaculture
300,000
Number of Employed Aqua-farmers

250,000

200,000

150,000 Number of
employed in
Aquaculture
100,000

50,000

Year

Average Annual Expenditure

(Million)
200,000
180,000
Average Annual Expenditure

160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000 Average Annual Ex-
80,000 penditure (Million)
60,000
40,000
20,000
0

Year

Municipality Fishing Bancas

600,000
500,000
Number of Fishing Bancas

400,000
300,000 Municipality Fishing Bancas
200,000
100,000
0

Year
 300,000 Municipality Fishing Bancas

Number of Fish
200,000
100,000
0

Year
Dependent Variable: PRODUCTION_VALUE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/28/23 Time: 12:45
Sample (adjusted): 1994 2022
Included observations: 29 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

NUMBER_OF_EMPLOYED_IN_AQUACU... 0.140387 0.101897 1.377734 0.1821

PRODUCTION_VOLUME(-1) 0.047715 0.006898 6.916940 0.0000
AVERAGE_ANNUAL_EXPENDITURE__MI... 0.099556 0.095899 1.038133 0.3105
FOOD_INFLATION_RATE 173111.8 69225.63 2.500689 0.0203
MUNICIPALITY_FISHING_BANCAS -0.007285 0.023243 -0.313434 0.7569
FISH_PORTS_IN_PH(-1) -97.46968 27.71467 -3.516898 0.0019
C -19096.99 29588.29 -0.645424 0.5253

R-squared 0.976162 Mean dependent var 70285.02

Adjusted R-squared 0.969660 S.D. dependent var 34270.06
S.E. of regression 5969.277 Akaike info criterion 20.43314
Sum squared resid 7.84E+08 Schwarz criterion 20.76318
Log likelihood -289.2806 Hannan-Quinn criter. 20.53651
F-statistic 150.1463 Durbin-Watson stat 1.594357
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
Null hypothesis: No serial correlation at up to 2 lags

F-statistic 2.272173 Prob. F(2,20) 0.1291

Obs*R-squared 5.369304 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.0682

wlang autocorrelation pag lag 2 gamit.

mag base rin sa durbin watson result.

if p-value is greater than 0.05 , no autocorrelation is found

for durbin watson, a value of 0 and 4, allowed is between 1.5 to 2.5

 LAG

VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria

Endogenous variables: PRODUCTION_VALUE NUMBER_OF_EMPLOYED_IN_AQU...
Exogenous variables: C
Date: 10/28/23 Time: 12:48
Sample: 1993 2022
Included observations: 28

Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ

0 -1740.188 NA 3.74e+45 124.7991 125.1322 124.9009

1 -1592.984 210.2914* 3.76e+42 117.7845 120.4490* 118.5991
2 -1524.637 63.46454 2.02e+42* 116.4027* 121.3984 117.9299*

* indicates lag order selected by the criterion

LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level)
FPE: Final prediction error
AIC: Akaike information criterion
SC: Schwarz information criterion
HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion

LAG 2 IS SUGGESTED KASI YUNG * MADAMI IPINASA

2,800,000
8
2,400,000
7
2,000,000
6
1,600,000
5
1,200,000
4
800,000 3
400,000 2
0 1
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
0
Production Value -10000 -50
Number of employed in Aquaculture
Production Volume
Average Annual Expenditure (Million)
Food Inflation rate
Municipality Fishing Bancas
Fish Ports in PH 8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-15000 -10
8
Series: Residuals
7 Sample 1993 2022
Observations 30
6
Mean 1.22e-11
5
Median -1151.299
4 Maximum 11432.18
Minimum -8729.345
3 Std. Dev. 4957.915
Skewness 0.344966
2 Kurtosis 2.546972
1
Jarque-Bera 0.851550
0 Probability 0.653263
-10000 -5000 0 5000 10000

MALI

8
Series: Residuals
7 Sample 1994 2022
Observations 29
6
5 Mean -1.77e-11
Median 317.6056
4 Maximum 7712.508
Minimum -13644.19
3 Std. Dev. 5291.198
2 Skewness -0.881461
Kurtosis 3.518605
1
Jarque-Bera 4.080353
0 Probability 0.130006
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000

IF JARQUE BERA IS POSITIVE AND CLOSE TO ZERO, IT MEANS THE DATA HAVE A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

IF P-VALUE IS LESS THAN 0.05, IT MEANS THE DATA DO NOT FOLLOW A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
als
022
30

1.22e-11
-1151.299
11432.18
-8729.345
4957.915
0.344966
2.546972

0.851550
0.653263

als
2022
29

-1.77e-11
317.6056
7712.508
-13644.19
5291.198
-0.881461
3.518605

4.080353
0.130006

RMAL DISTRIBUTION

TRIBUTION
 Heteroskedasticity Test: White
Null hypothesis: Homoskedasticity

F-statistic 4.934840 Prob. F(27,2) 0.1822

Obs*R-squared 29.55635 Prob. Chi-Square(27) 0.3345
Scaled explained SS 13.43743 Prob. Chi-Square(27) 0.9862

p-value must be greater than 0.05 sa prob chi square.

Heteroskedasticity Test: White

Null hypothesis: Homoskedasticity

F-statistic 34.38482 Prob. F(27,1) 0.1341

Obs*R-squared 28.96880 Prob. Chi-Square(27) 0.3624
Scaled explained SS 20.99471 Prob. Chi-Square(27) 0.7865
Variance Inflation Factors
Date: 10/28/23 Time: 01:25
Sample: 1993 2022
Included observations: 30

Coefficient Uncentered Centered

Variable Variance VIF VIF

NUMBER_OF_EMPL... 0.000981 52.17827 1.078671

PRODUCTION_VOL... 2.15E-05 78.57119 8.393918
AVERAGE_ANNUAL... 0.005625 36.28981 11.99744
FOOD_INFLATION_... 3.64E+09 10.94802 1.860236
MUNICIPALITY_FISH... 0.000318 43.93654 3.021147
FISH_PORTS_IN_PH 371.2441 75.26829 5.866915
C 1.09E+08 105.1673 NA

p-vlaue must be less than 10 sa centered VIF para masabi na wlang multicollinearity
ollinearity
Ramsey RESET Test
Equation: UNTITLED
Omitted Variables: Squares of fitted values
Specification: PRODUCTION_VALUE NUMBER_OF_EMPLOYED_IN_AQU
ACULTURE PRODUCTION_VOLUME AVERAGE_ANNUAL_EXPENDI
TURE__MILLION_ FOOD_INFLATION_RATE MUNICIPALITY_FISHIN
G_BANCAS FISH_PORTS_IN_PH C

Value df Probability
t-statistic 1.041151 22 0.3091
F-statistic 1.083995 (1, 22) 0.3091
Likelihood ratio 1.442912 1 0.2297

F-test summary:
Sum of Sq. df Mean Squares
Test SSR 33474364 1 33474364
Restricted SSR 7.13E+08 23 30993333
Unrestricted SSR 6.79E+08 22 30880559

LR test summary:
Value
Restricted LogL -297.3218
Unrestricted LogL -296.6004

Ramsey RESET Test

Equation: UNTITLED
Omitted Variables: Squares of fitted values
Specification: PRODUCTION_VALUE NUMBER_OF_EMPLOYED_IN_AQU
ACULTURE PRODUCTION_VOLUME(-1) AVERAGE_ANNUAL_EXPE
NDITURE__MILLION_ FOOD_INFLATION_RATE MUNICIPALITY_FIS
HING_BANCAS FISH_PORTS_IN_PH(-1) C

Value df Probability
t-statistic 1.818859 21 0.0832
F-statistic 3.308247 (1, 21) 0.0832
Likelihood ratio 4.242504 1 0.0394

F-test summary:
Sum of Sq. df Mean Squares
Test SSR 1.07E+08 1 1.07E+08
Restricted SSR 7.84E+08 22 35632265
Unrestricted SSR 6.77E+08 21 32248720

LR test summary:
Value
Restricted LogL -289.2806
Unrestricted LogL -287.1593
mag base sa gawa nila ate jd yung fertility rate paper.