PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique)

Introduction to Uncertain durations

• Durations are two types certain and uncertain.

• A certain or close to accurate duration is obtained by

known construction type, unit productivity rate and
past experience.

• An uncertain duration prevails in a new or unknown

project types, uncertain productivity rate, new
construction materials and techniques, new site
conditions etc.,
PERT - Program Evaluation & Review Technique
• In PERT the duration is derived by probabilistic
approach, by introducing a three point duration
estimate for activities.

• This methodology typically used in R&D type and

non repetitive projects

• This method is typically used with A-O-A types

networking diagrams.
The Three Time Estimates
1. Optimistic Time Estimate: (to)

This is the minimum time required to complete an activity based on

premise that every sub activity completed without any delay or
interference.
2. Pessimistic Time Duration: (tp)

This is the maximum time required to complete an activity based on the

premise that every sub activity is completed with all possible delays,
interferences.
3. Most Likely Time Duration: (tm)

This is the duration that is given with some experience in related activity
fields with normal conditions and known productivity rate of
resource.
The Mean & Variance of durations
The Mean Duration/Time (te) is derived from the equation
te = (to+ 4 tm+ tp)/6 ------ (1)

This te will be an activity’s duration. In the formula above

the most likely duration (tm ) is weighted 4 times to
optimistic and pessimistic durations.

Variance of the duration (σ2) = (tp – to )2/36 ------ (2)

Standard deviation (σ) = (tp – to )/6 -------- (3)

 Beta Distributions of durations
The mean and variance formulas are derived by assuming that the activity
durations follow a probabilistic beta distribution.
Probability

o m p o m p o m p

Durations
Class Ex-1
Activity to tm tp te te
(to+ 4 tm+ tp)/6
1–2 3 5 7 (3+ 4 x 5 + 7)/6

2–3 4 8 12 (4 + 4 x 8 + 12)/6

3–4 6 8 14 (6 + 4 x 8 + 12)/6

4–5 2 4 7 (2 + 4 x 4 + 7)/6
 Beta Distributions of durations
Probability

o m p 3 55 7 o m p

Durations
Ex:2
Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimist Mean Variance Standard
to tm ic Time (σ2) = (tp – to Deviation
tp te = )2/36 (σ)
(to+ 4 tm+ tp)/6

1-2 1 1 7
1-3 1 4 7
1-4 2 2 8
2-5 1 1 1
3-5 2 5 14
4-6 2 5 8
5-6 3 6 15
Ex:3
Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimist Mean Variance Standard
to tm ic Time (σ2) = (tp – Deviation
tp te = (σ)
(to+ 4 tm+ tp)/6 to )2/36

1-2 3 5 7
1-3 1 2 3
2-5 6 8 12
3-4 8 12 17
4-5 0 0 0
4-6 6 9 12
4-7 3 6 8
5-8 5 7 9
6-9 1 2 3
8-9 3 6 8
7-10 8 15 20
9-10 2 4 6
Probability of completion time for a project
• Used under projects with uncertain durations
• Finds out the probability of completing a project with in
the scheduled completion time.
• This is done by 3 assumptions:
1. Assume that the mean critical path turns out to be the
longest path through the project (µ)
If x1, x2, x3 … etc are mean durations on critical path, then

µ = x1 + x2 + x3 + ….+ xn (Sum of all mean durations of

activities along critical path)
Probability of completion time for a project

2. Assume that the mean durations on the critical

path are statistically independent. This means that
the variance of total expected project duration is
equal to the sum of variances of individual activities
on critical path

(σ2) Variance corresponding to critical path duration

= σ 2(x1) + σ 2(x2) + σ 2(x3) + ….. + σ 2(xn)

σ = σ 2(x1) + σ 2(x2) + σ 2(x3) + ….. + σ 2(xn)

Probability of completion time for a project

3. Assume that the project duration is normally

distributed

(Based on the Central Limit Theorem, which

states that the distribution of the sum of
independent random variables is approximately
normal when the number of terms in the sum if
sufficiently large)
Probability of completion time for a project
E.g. of Central Limit Theorem

1. Consider weights of all students in a high school

where each class has 30 students.
2. Take one student from each class at a time.
3. This makes 10 students for each sample. Measure
their weights.
4. Now calculate the mean of the first sample.
5. Now repeat this till all the students’ weights are
measured and all 30 samples’ mean is calculated.
Probability of completion time for a project
In the above example, if the mean data of 30 samples is
marked on a scale,
Probability

40 50 60
Probability of completion time for a project
The characteristics of a normal distribution are…

1. The total area under the curve sums to 1

2. The area under the curve between any two points is
the probability of values in that range
Probability of completion time for a project
3. The standard deviation of a normal distribution
determines its spread.
4. In a normal distribution, the spread of distribution
is from (µ -3σ), µ, (µ +3σ),
4. A STANDARD normal distribution curve is
something that has a mean (µ) value as 0 and
Standard deviation (σ) as 1
Probability of completion time for a project
Now as per assumption 3, in a construction PERT
project, the project total duration is the sum of all
mean durations of activities falling on critical path.

When this project total duration is normally

distributed, the total duration becomes the mean μ
of the normally distributed curve with variance σ
μ
σ

Duration
Probability of completion time for a project
Now, once a normal distribution curve is drawn, the
target is to find out the probability of completing the
project in a given time.

As given, in a normal distribution, the probability of

completing the project in (μ) units of time is 50%.

For a given time, X, the probability of completing the

project is the area of the curve till point X.

X can be  μ or  μ
Probability of completion time for a project
For a STANDARD normal distribution (SND) the mean is 0, and variance is 1

The distribution in this case is called Z distribution or Z-score as the SND

considers its random variable as Z, just like we considered our random
variable as X
This score is found out for the normal distribution curve we generated and
that z-score is matched with the STANDARD normal distribution table
to find the area covered or the probability of the project completion.
The probability factor /z-score ‘Z’ is obtained by Z  ( X   )  

μ μ
σ σ

X X
Probability of completion time for a project
 Ex:2
Activity Optimistic Most Pessimistic Mean Time Variance
to likely tp te = (σ2) = (tp – to
tm (to+ 4 tm+ )2/36
tp)/6

1-2 1 1 7 2 1
1-3 1 4 7 4 1
1-4 2 2 8 3 1
2-5 1 1 1 1 0
3-5 2 5 14 6 4
4-6 2 5 8 5 1
5-6 3 6 15 7 4
Questions
• What is the probability of completing the project in
17 days
• What is the probability of completing project in 15
days
• What is the probability of completing the project in
18 days
Ex:3
Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Mean Time Variance
to tm tp te = (σ2) = (tp – to
(to+ 4 tm+ tp)/6 )2/36

1-2 3 5 7 5 0.44
1-3 1 2 3 2 0.11
2-5 6 8 12 8.33 1.0
3-4 8 12 17 12.17 2.25
4-5 0 0 0 0 0
4-6 6 9 12 9 1.0
4-7 3 6 8 5.83 0.694
5-8 5 7 9 7 0.444
6-9 1 2 3 2 0.11
8-9 3 6 8 5.83 0.694
7-10 8 15 20 14.67 4.0
9-10 2 4 6 4 0.44
Questions
• What is the probability of completing the project in
34.67 days
• What is the probability of completing project in 36
days
• What is the probability of completing the project in
31 days
• What is the probability that the project will be
completed only after 36 days