Discrete Probability

Distributions
Random Variables
• A random variable is a numerical description of the outcome of an
experiment
• Discrete
• Continuous
• Discrete Random Variables – A random variable that may assume
either a finite number of values or an infinite sequence of values such
as 0, 1, 2…
• Example – x = number of cars arriving at a toll booth. The possible values of x
come from the sequence of integers 0, 1, 2…
Discrete Random Variables

Experiment Random Variable (x) Possible Values for the random

Variable
Contact five customers Number of customers who place an 0,1,2,3,4,5
order
Inspect a shipment of 50 radios Number of defective radios 0,1,2,….49,50
Operate a restaurant for one day Number of customers 0,1,2,3….
Sell an automobile Gender of the customer 0 if male, 1 if female
Continuous Random Variables
• A random variable that may assume any numerical value in an
interval or collection of intervals
• Example – outcomes based on measurement scales – time, weight, distance,
temperature etc.
Experiment Random Variable (x) Possible Values for the Random
Variable
Operate a bank Time between customer arrivals in 𝑥≥0
minutes
Fill a soft drink can (max = 12.1 Number of ounces 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 12.1
ounces)
Construct a new library % of project complete after six 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 100
months
Test a new chemical process Temperature when the desired 150 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 212
reaction takes place (min 150oF,
max 212oF)
Developing Discrete Probability Distributions
• Probability Distribution for a random variable describes how
probabilities are distributed over the values of the random variable.
• x – random variable, then f(x) is probability function which provides
the probability for each value of the random variable
• Developing discrete probability distributions
• Classical method
• Subjective method
• Relative frequency method
Classical Method
• Applicable when experimental outcomes generate values of the
random variable that are equally likely.
• Example – Rolling a die
• For x = number obtained on one roll of a die, f(x) = probability of x,
the probability distribution is:
Number obtained (x) Probability of x , f(x)
1 1/6
2 1/6
3 1/6
4 1/6
5 1/6
6 1/6
Subjective Method
• Based on individual judgement
• Different people can be expected to obtain different probability
distributions.
Relative Frequency Method
• Applicable when reasonably large amounts of data are available
• Also known as empirical discrete distribution
• Example – Develop a probability distribution for the number of cars
sold per day at DiCarlo Motors in Saratoga, New York. Over the past
300 days, DiCarlo has experienced 54 days with no automobiles sold,
117 days with 1 automobile sold, 72 days with 2 automobiles sold, 42
days with 3 automobiles sold 12 days with 4 automobiles sold and 3
days with 5 automobiles sold.
Relative Frequency Method
Let x = the number of automobiles sold during a day

x f(x)
0 54/300 = 0.18
1 117/300 = 0.39
2 0.24
3 0.14
4 0.04
5 0.01
Total – 1.00
Discrete Probability Distributions
• Once the probability distribution is known, it is relatively easy to
determine the probability of a variety of events that may be of
interest to a decision maker.
• For example, for the DiCarlo Motors, most probable number of
automobiles sold during a day is f(1) = 0.39.
• Required conditions for a discrete probability function –
• 𝑓 𝑥 ≥0
• ∑𝑓 𝑥 = 1
Discrete Uniform Probability Function
• Simplest example of discrete probability distribution
!
• Probability function 𝑓 𝑥 = "
• Where n = number of values the random variable may assume
• Example – rolling a die
)
• 𝑓 𝑥 = * for x = 1,2,3,4,5,6
Example 1
• The percent frequency distributions of job satisfaction scores for a
sample of information systems (IS) senior executives and middle
managers are as follows. The scores range from a low of 1 (very
dissatisfied) to a high of 5 (very satisfied).
Job Satisfaction Score IS Senior Executives (%) IS Middle Managers (%)

1 5 4

2 9 10

3 3 12

4 42 46

5 41 28
Example 1
1. Develop a probability distribution for the job satisfaction score of a
senior executive.
2. Develop a probability distribution for the job satisfaction score of a
middle manager.
3. What is the probability that a senior executive will report a job
satisfaction score of 4 or 5?
4. What is the probability a middle manager is very satisfied?
5. Compare the overall job satisfaction of senior executives and
middle managers.
Expected Value
• The expected value or mean of a random variable is a measure of
central location
• 𝐸 𝑥 = 𝜇 = ∑ 𝑥𝑓(𝑥)
• For DiCarlo Motors:
x f(x) xf(x)
0 0.18 0.00
1 0.39 0.39
2 0.24 0.48
3 0.14 0.42
4 0.04 0.16
5 0.01 0.05
Total = 1.50
Expected Value
• The expected value is 1.5 automobiles per day.
• Although sales of 0,1,2,3,4 or 5 automobiles are possible on any day,
over time DiCarlo can anticipate selling an average of 1.5 automobiles
per day. Assuming 30 days of operation during a month, average
monthly sales = 1.5*30 = 45 automobiles
Variance
• Measure of variability or dispersion
• 𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑥 = 𝜎 ! = ∑ 𝑥 − 𝜇 ! 𝑓(𝑥)
𝒙 𝒙−𝝁 (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 𝒇(𝒙) 𝒙 − 𝝁 𝟐 𝒇(𝒙)
0 0 – 1.50 = -1.50 2.25 0.18 0.4050
1 -0.50 0.25 0.39 0.0975
2 0.50 0.25 0.24 0.0600
3 1.50 2.25 0.14 0.3150
4 2.50 6.25 0.04 0.2500
5 3.50 12.25 0.01 0.1225
Total – 1.25

• 𝜎 ! = 1.25 and 𝜎 = 1.118

Example 2
• The American Housing Survey reported the following data on the
number of times that owner-occupied and renter-occupied units had
a water supply stoppage lasting 6 or more hours in the past 3 months.
Number of Times Number of Units (1000s)
Owner Occupied Renter Occupied
0 439 394
1 1100 760
2 249 221
3 98 92
4 times or more 120 111
Example 2
1. Define a random variable x = number of times that owner-occupied units
had a water supply stoppage lasting 6 or more hours in the past 3
months and develop a probability distribution for the random variable.
(Let x = 4 represent 4 or more times.)
2. Compute the expected value and variance for x
3. Define a random variable y = number of times that renter-occupied units
had a water supply stoppage lasting 6 or more hours in the past 3
months and develop a probability distribution for the random variable.
(Let y = 4 represent 4 or more times.)
4. Compute the expected value and variance for y.
5. What observations can you make from a comparison of the number of
water supply stoppage reported by owner occupied units versus renter-
occupied units?
Binomial Probability Distribution
• Discrete probability distribution
• Associated with a multiple-step experiment that we call the binomial
experiment.
• A binomial experiment exhibit four properties:
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n identical trials
2. Two outcomes are possible on each trial. We refer to one outcome as a
success and other outcome as a failure.
3. The probability of success, p does not change from trial to trial.
Consequently, the probability of failure, 1-p, does not change from trial to
trial.
4. The trials are independent
Binomial Probability Distribution
• Properties 2, 3 and 4 present Bernoulli process
• Properties 1, 2, 3 and 4 present binomial experiment
• Binomial Probability Distribution
• Example – Consider the experiment of tossing a coin 5 times and on
each toss, observing whether the coin lands with a head or tail.
Suppose we want to count the number of heads appearing over the
five tosses. Is this experiment a binomial experiment?
Binomial Probability Distribution
• Number of experimental outcomes providing exactly x successes in n
trials
" "!
• #
= #! "%# !
• Binomial Probability Function
"
•𝑓 𝑥 = #
𝑝 # (1 − 𝑝)("%#)
• where, x = number of successes
• p = the probability of a success on one trial
• n = the number of trials
• f(x) = the probability of x successes in n trials
Example 3: Martin Clothing Store Problem
• Let us consider the purchase decisions of the next three customers
who enter the Martin Clothing Store.
• On the basis of past experience, the store manager estimates the
probability that any one customer will make a purchase is 0.30.
• What is the probability that two of the three customers will make a
purchase?
Using Tables of Binomial Probabilities
Expected Value and Variance
• 𝐸 𝑥 = 𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝
• 𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑥 = 𝜎 ( = 𝑛𝑝(1 − 𝑝)
Example 4
• According to a 2013 study by the Pew Research Center, 15% of adults in the
United States do not use internet. Suppose that 10 adults in the United
States are selected randomly.
1. Is the selection of the 10 adults a binomial experiment? Explain.
2. What is the probability that none of the adults use the Internet (to 4
decimals)?
3. What is the probability that 3 of the adults use the Internet (to 4
decimals)? If you calculate the binomial probabilities manually, make
sure to carry at least 4 decimal digits in your calculations.
4. What is the probability that at least 1 of the adults uses the Internet (to 4
decimals)?
Poisson Probability Distribution
• Random variable that is often useful in estimating the number of
occurrences over a specified interval of time or space.
• Properties of Poisson Experiment
1. The probability of an occurrence is the same for any two intervals of equal
length
2. The occurrence or nonoccurrence in any interval is independent of the
occurrence or nonoccurrence in any other interval
Poisson Probability Distribution
• Poisson Probability Function
) ! * "#
•𝑓 𝑥 =
#!
• where, x = discrete random variable indicating the number of occurrences in
the interval
• 𝑓 𝑥 = the probability of x occurrences in an interval
• 𝜇 = expected value or mean number of occurrences in an interval
• e = 2.71828
Example 5
• We are interested in the number of arrivals at the drive-up teller
window of a bank during a 15-minute period on weekday mornings.
• If we assume that the probability of a car arriving is the same for any
two time periods of equal length and that the arrival and nonarrival
of a car in any time period is independent of the arrival or nonarrival
in any other time period, the Poisson probability function is
applicable.
• The average number of cars arriving in a 15-minute time period is 10.
!+! * "$%
•𝑓 𝑥 =
#!
• where, x = number of cars arriving in any 15-minute period.
Example 5
• If management wanted to know the probability of exactly five arrivals
in 15 minutes,
•x=5
!+& * "$%
•𝑓 5 = = 0.0378
,!
Using Tables of Poisson Distribution
Poisson Probability Distribution
• Mean of the distribution = Variance of the distribution
• In the example, mean = 10 and variance = 10
• Other time periods can also be used. First convert the mean arrival
rate to the time period of interest and then compute the probability.
• Suppose we want to compute the probability of one arrival in a 3-
minute period.
Example 6
• Phone calls arrive at the rate of 48 per hour at the desk for regional
airways
1. compute the probability of receiving three calls in a 5-minute interval of
time
2. compute the probability of receiving exactly 10 calls in 15 minutes
3. Suppose no calls are currently on hold. If the agent takes 5 minutes to
complete the current call, how many callers do you expect to be waiting by
that time? What is the probability that none will be waiting?
4. if no calls are currently being processed what is the probability that the
agent can take 3 minutes for personal time without being interrupted by a
call?
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
• Related to the binomial distribution
• The trials are no independent, and the probability of success changes from
trial to trial
• Hypergeometric Probability Function –
! #$!
" %$"
•𝑓 𝑥 = #
%
• where, x = the number of successes
• n = number of trials
• f(x) = probability of x successes in n trials
• N = number of elements in the population
• r = number of elements in the population labeled success
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
• Electric Fuses produced by Ontario Electric are packaged in boxes of
12 units each. Suppose an inspector randomly selects three of the 12
fuses in a box for the testing.
• If the box contains exactly five defective fuses. What is the probability
that the inspector will find exactly one of the three fuses defective.
• n = 3 and N = 12
• r = 5 and x = 1
• Substituting we get f(1) = 0.4773
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
-
• Mean = 𝐸 𝑥 = 𝜇 = 𝑛( )
.
( - - .%"
• Variance = 𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑥 = 𝜎 = 𝑛( )(1 − )( )
. . .%!
• For the above example,
• Mean = 1.25
• Variance = 0.60
• Std deviation = 0.77
Example 7
• A recent survey showed that a majority of Americans plan on doing
their holiday shopping online because they don’t want to spend
money on gas driving from store to store.
• Suppose we have a group of 10 shoppers; 7 prefer to do their holiday
shopping online and 3 prefer to do their holiday shopping in stores. A
random sample of 3 of these 10 shoppers is selected for a more in-
depth study of how the economy has impacted their shopping
behavior.
1. What is the probability that exactly 2 prefer shopping online?
2. What is the probability that the majority (either 2 or 3) prefer shopping
online?