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Forecasting Value Chain Performance for Strategic and Operational Evaluations

Conference Paper · September 2023

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Forecasting Value Chain Performance for Strategic and Operational Evaluations

*F. Faramarzi1, **R. Smith1

Dassault Systèmes
Level 21, 100 Creek Street, Queensland 4000, Brisbane, Australia

(Corresponding authors: *[email protected]; **[email protected])

Abstract

Optimizing the mining value chain, commonly known as mine-to-mill, conventionally aims at unlocking additional
milling capacity by applying high-energy blasts, which deliver relatively finer size distributions in favour of
autogenous and semi-autogenous grinding mills. In general, optimizing the mining value chain requires the
optimal contribution of each stage towards maximizing overall value across the value chain rather than realizing
the silos’ distinct objectives. Although mine-to-mill conventionally focuses on leveraging drill-and-blast as an
upstream option, mine-to-mill should also benefit from other improvement techniques throughout the value
chain.

Today’s technology has made developing consoles easy and cost-effective. With technological advancements,
such as increased computing power and improved software capabilities, implementing and using consoles have
become more accessible to mining professionals. In this context, forecasting consoles are vital in enhancing
mining practices by enabling mining and process engineers to effectively test hypotheses and make informed
decisions that benefit the entire operation. Consoles also help identify risks and opportunities, enabling proactive
problem solving and continuous improvement in mining operations. Additionally, the notable benefit of cross-
disciplinary consoles may reside in augmenting the comprehension among upstream and downstream engineers
concerning operational challenges using enhanced communication.

This paper proposes a technology-driven solution, the mine-to-mill analytics console created to forecast process
plant key performance indicators (KPI). In addition, we discuss the mine-to-mill analytics console's application in
mine-to-mill evaluation studies. The console is an easily customizable and extendable solution which allows
exploring the impact of feasible blast design alternatives for different ore domains and ore-breakage variability
on key process KPIs—specifically helping with not only typical mine-to-mill studies, but also reinforcing strategic
optimization plans using stochastic approaches.

Keywords

Mine-to-mill analytics console, ore variability, value chain integration, optimization, NPV, simulation
Introduction

Mining involves a series of interconnected processes that aim to break down materials to liberate valuable
minerals. The first step in this process is the drill-and-blast, which breaks down the rock mass into manageable
sizes and determines the size of the initial ore feed that is further processed through crushing, milling, and
separation. Historically, mining and processing units have functioned as separate entities with their own distinct
goals. Mining has focused on producing ore at a required rate and cut-off grade, while processing has focused
on handling the mine-provided ore in the most efficient way possible. However, clearly the different mining and
processing stages are interconnected and sequential, with each stage playing a critical role in liberating valuable
minerals from the gangue. The acknowledgment of this concept has led to the adoption of a value-oriented
strategy, known as mine-to-mill, that links upstream and downstream activities—conventionally by customizing
blast fragmentation to meet downstream needs and improve milling throughput. The mine-to-mill approach has
achieved global recognition and widespread adoption within the mining industry, demonstrating notable
productivity gains ranging from 5% to 20% (Burger et al., 2006; Hart et al., 2001; Kanchibotla et al., 1999; Scott
et al., 2002; Valery et al., 2019).

The Extended Drop Weight Test (ExDWT) improves understanding concerning sources of variation in ore
competence through the value chain. This technique measures and describes the variability in ore competence
to determine its potential impact on process performance (Faramarzi, 2020; Faramarzi et al., 2018; Faramarzi et
al., 2019; Faramarzi et al., 2020), which could further support mine-to-mill integrated studies and evaluations.
Integrating mining and processing stages is vital for maximizing profitability throughout the value chain over the
life-of-mine (LOM) (Smith et al., 2022). Recent enhancements in simulation and modelling have equipped the
mining industry with advanced computer-aided technologies that can accelerate reliable decision-making
processes through scenario analysis (i.e., identifying the problem, gathering information, evaluating alternatives,
and making a choice). These technologies’ effectiveness depends on their ability to handle routine challenges
and uncertainties without causing operational delays, and consoles can be beneficial in achieving this objective.
The latest examples are the consoles in drill-and-blast design optimization (Faramarzi & Smith, 2023a) and
Integrated Strategic Mine Planning (I-SMP) (Faramarzi & Smith, 2023b).

This article presents the mine-to-mill analytics console, a technology-driven solution developed by GEOVIA
Dassault Systèmes as a proof of concept for forecasting changes in process plant key performance indicators
(KPI). Note that variability in the size distribution and competence of run-of-mine ore represent significant causes
of instability in SAG mill throughput (Napier-Munn et al., 1996). The primary objective of developing such cross-
disciplinary consoles as mine-to-mill analytics is to minimize the required time, cost, and complexity involved in
developing, calibrating, utilizing, and data analytics of integrated base-case models, while benefiting from
available and proven technologies in favour of the mining industry.

GEOVIA Mine-to-Mill Analytics Console: Forecasting Key Performance Indicators

The GEOVIA mine-to-mill analytics console is based on SIMULIA technology to forecast mine-to-mill KPIs by
assessing scenario analysis. The platform simplifies the integration of cross-disciplinary models and applications
into a simulation process-flow, then automatically executes them and evaluates the resulting design space to
determine the optimal design parameters while adhering to specified constraints. The mine-to-mill analytics
console’s ability to manipulate and map parametric data between process steps, and to automate multiple
simulations enhances efficiency, reduces human errors, and accelerates evaluating product design options. The
technology provides access to powerful execution engines such as design of experiments, optimisation,
approximation, Monte Carlo, Six Sigma, Target Solver, and data matching. Additionally, the mine-to-mill analytics

1 | SAG CONFERENCE 2023 VANCOUVER |September 24-28

console’s compatibility with Excel, MATLAB, COM, Text I/O apps, Java, and Python scripting facilitates
incorporating sophisticated models into the system. Integrated simulation consoles such as mine-to-mill analytics
can provide significant time and cost savings for mining companies. These consoles are computer programs that
allow mining engineers and operators to simulate various mining scenarios from the feasibility phase to
production. They assist engineers with exploring multiple scenarios in a reasonable time while saving time and
costs generally demanded for developing and validating comprehensive base-case flowsheets.

Figure 1 presents the structure for a console-based base-case model, which integrates a blast fragmentation
model and an SAG mill, ball mill and crusher (SABC) comminution circuit base-case model (for forecasting process
KPIs: e.g., milling rate, specific energy consumption, bottleneck detection). As shown, Drill & Blast Analytics and
Process Plant Analytics are integrated, and widely used industry models support each unit. The models can be
synchronized using Excel, or scripted in other programming languages. Each node could represent a set of
sophisticated equations for generating any outcome—for example, blast fragmentation. We emphasize that the
entire system could be scripted in a single "holistic node", depicted in Figure 1 as UNIT A and UNIT B. Alternatively,
each node could be extended into a number of sub-nodes. However, minimizing the number of units or nodes
can significantly reduce simulation time.

Figure 1—The GEOVIA mine-to-mill analytics console: structure, and key inputs and outputs

For this study, key inputs required for the Process Plant Analytics node are the input parameters for the Julius
Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre (JKMRC) SAG and ball mill power models (Napier-Munn et al., 1996). That
is, ore density, breakage characteristics (A, b, ta, and BWi), SAG mill feed rate, %solids, equipment 80% passing
(F80) and P80, and pebble percentage. Key outputs are equipment and total circuit comminution specific energy
(kilowatt hours per tonne [kWh/t]), SAG mill, ball mill, total throughput, and bottleneck detection. Note that
maintaining a power balance between the SAG and ball milling stages is crucial. Using finer feed may lead to
overloading the ball mill–cyclone circuit, which can put pressure on the circulating load and limit throughput.
Increasing the cyclone cut size (P80) might help reduce the circulating load, but its impact on recovery should be
assessed.

2 | SAG CONFERENCE 2023 VANCOUVER |September 24-28

Simulation Scenarios and Considerations

A range of key inputs was considered simulation scenario, including blast design parameters—for example,
burden, spacing, blasthole diameter, explosives type, and geotechnical characteristics of three geological ore
domains. Ore comminution characteristics based on standard average-based tests are given in Table 1; they are
used as inputs, except the JK Drop Weigh Tester Axb values.

Table 1—Ore domain standard properties

Description ta Axb BWi (kWh/t)

Domain 1 0.450 45 15.0
Domain 2 0.578 40 12.3
Domain 3 0.377 48 14.5
Note: ta = JK abrasion index; BWi = Bond ball mill work index.

In this paper, to account for ore competence variability, we used ore-breakage parameters—A and b values
generated by the Extended Drop Weight Test (ExDWT) (Faramarzi, 2020)—for three ore domains in a large open
pit copper mine. Faramarzi et al. (2019) developed an alternative technique for modelling and describing the
ExDWT data based on the semi-quantitative A×b classification (JKTech, 2018) that is proposed based on a
historical database which includes results of over 5,000 drop weight characterizations (Very Hard, A×b<30; Hard,
30<A×b<38; Moderately Hard, 38<A×b<43; Medium, 43<A×b<56; Moderately Soft, 56<A×b<67; Soft,
67<A×b<127; and Very Soft, A×b >127). In the proposed ExDWT-based modelling and description method, the
characterization results (t10-Ecs data points from ExDWT) were split into two major components, namely ‘hard’
and ‘soft’ at a fitted curve with an A×b=38. The JKMRC breakage model (Napier-Munn et al., 1996) with A=67.75
and b=0.56 (A×b=38) was fitted to the data points that splits them into two populations. The top population
represents soft (A×b>38), and the bottom population represents hard (A×b<38) components. The model was
fitted again to each population separately to describe their competence, which is expressible in terms of A and
b values and applied to ore domains of a large open pit copper mine (Table 2).

Table 2—Estimated breakage model parameters for variability using ExDWT data

Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain 3

(30<A×b<52) (28<A×b<51) (28<A×b<66)
Description Criterion A b A b A b
Soft Component A×b>38 65.28 0.80 71.40 0.72 59.67 1.10
Split Function A×b=38 67.75 0.56 67.75 0.56 67.75 0.56
Hard Component A×b<38 73.86 0.41 79.36 0.35 60.78 0.46

The developed mine-to-mill analytics console was used to forecast variation in milling performance induced by
practicing different blast-design alternatives (Table 3), degree of fragmentation, and ore-competence variability.
Despite being able to quantify the impact of particle-size distribution (PSD) variation and ore-competence
variability, which is most useful in creating an operational risk profile, a question remains: How can blast design
be optimized in each ore domain to improve downstream performance?

3 | SAG CONFERENCE 2023 VANCOUVER |September 24-28

 Table 3—Blast design inputs: geometry, explosives, and rock mass-related parameters

Description Design Input Values

Burden (m) × Spacing (m) 5×6, 6×6, 6×7, 6×8, 7×7, 7×8
Blasthole Diameter (mm) 178, 203, 251, 311
3
Explosive Type—Density (g/cm ) ANFO (0.85), TITAN 2020 (0.97), TITAN 5040 (1.21)
Notes: Bench height (m) = 15; subdrill (m) = 1.0; powder factor = 0.25–2.04 kilograms/m3, B/D = 16–39; S/B = 1–1.33;
ST/B =0.86–1.2.

The data given in Table 1 to Table 3 informed the simulation scenarios. The simulation involves 648 simulation
runs across three ore domains, considering 72 blast-design scenarios with varying parameters. Note that it is
beneficial to establish a balance between the number of parameters and the simulation's accuracy, which can
be achieved by selecting relevant parameters and minimizing unnecessary ones, while ensuring that the
simulation captures the essential features of the value chain. Although computational power is less of a limiting
factor in the minerals industry, developing purpose-driven scenarios for generating risk profiles is recommended.
This targeted approach can be tailored to specific objectives and provide a more-efficient risk analysis compared
to massive simulations that may not be essential. Conducting massive simulations without a clear purpose can
be time-consuming and costly and may not necessarily lead to meaningful insights or improved risk profiles.

Results and Analysis

The simulation runs were completed in about 15 minutes; they forecast how SAG milling, ball milling, overall
milling rates, and swing of bottleneck between the coarse and fine grinding stages may change in response to
different drill-and-blast design alternatives. Figure 2 presents the blast fragmentation distribution profile, within
which sub-grate material (−38 mm) or blast fines vary from 14.3% to 53.1%, which affects SAG milling
performance. A summary of outcomes is given in Table 4 and Table 5.

100
Pecentile Curve [5%]
90 Pecentile Curve [10%]
Pecentile Curve [20%]
80
Pecentile Curve [30%]
70 Pecentile Curve [40%]
Pecent Passing (%)

Pecentile Curve [50%]

60
Pecentile Curve [60%]
50 Pecentile Curve [70%]
Pecentile Curve [80%]
40
Pecentile Curve [90%]
30 Pecentile Curve [95%]

20

10

0
0.1 1 10 100 1000
Fragment Size (mm)
Figure 2—Range of blast fragment-size distributions generated by 72 design scenarios

4 | SAG CONFERENCE 2023 VANCOUVER |September 24-28

Figure 3 represents the distribution of powder factor for different blast patterns (achievable explosive energy
per cubic meter of rockmass). Similar energy levels are obtainable using different patterns; however, larger and
tighter patterns might carry certain pros and cons, which will be argued below.

Figure 3—Powder-factor ranges for different blast designs (PATTERN: burden [m] x spacing [m])

Figure 4 shows the KPIs under different conditions for three ore domains. The graphs indicate that throughput is
mainly governed by ore competence. Additionally, the three levels of SAG mill throughput for each ore domain
stand for the extent of ore variability, described as soft, split, and hard. Note also the swing of bottleneck
between the SAG and ball milling stages, as it determines total circuit throughput.

Table 4—Results summary—comminution circuit performance

Outputs Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain 3

Ball Milling (t/h) 1,722–2,478 2,334–3,928 1,756–2,656
SAG Milling (t/h) 1,927–2,975 1,804–2,934 1,813–3,544
Total Circuit Milling (t/h) 1,722–2,212 1,804–2,711 1,755–2,271
Circuit Specific Energy (kWh/t) 13.3–16.5 11.3–14.7 12.5–16.5

Table 5—Average values for different blast patterns

Blast Pattern Powder Factor Milling Rate (t/h) Specific Energy (kWh/t)
(Burden [m] × Spacing [m]) (kg/m3) D1 D2 D3 D1 D2 D3
5×6 1.03 1,905 2,204 1,909 14.93 12.89 14.44
6×6 0.85 1,890 2,192 1,893 15.04 13.00 14.54
6×7 0.73 1,879 2,185 1,882 15.11 13.07 14.62
6×8 0.64 1,870 2,179 1,874 15.17 13.13 14.67
7×7 0.63 1,869 2,178 1,873 15.18 13.14 14.68
7×8 0.55 1,862 2,174 1,866 15.22 13.19 14.73
Note: Di = ore domain.

5 | SAG CONFERENCE 2023 VANCOUVER |September 24-28

 BALL MILLS THROUGHPUT SAG MILL THROUGHPUT
TOTAL CIRCUIT THROUGHPUT BOTTLENECK (1=SAG MILL : 2=BALL MILL)
4500 2

4000 ORE Domain 1 (BWi= 15 kWh/t)

3500
Milling Rate (t/h)

3000

Bottleneck
2500

2000

1500

1000 1
1
7
13
19
25
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43
49
55
61
67
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103
109
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133
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205
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217
Scenarios

BALL MILLS THROUGHPUT SAG MILL THROUGHPUT

TOTAL CIRCUIT THROUGHPUT BOTTLENECK (1=SAG MILL : 2=BALL MILL)
4500 2
4000 ORE Domain 2 (BWi= 12.3 kWh/t)
3500
Milling Rate (t/h)

3000

Bottleneck
2500
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Scenarios

BALL MILLS THROUGHPUT SAG MILL THROUGHPUT

TOTAL CIRCUIT THROUGHPUT BOTTLENECK (1=SAG MILL : 2=BALL MILL)
4500 2
4000 ORE Domain 3 (BWi= 14.5 kWh/t)
3500
Milling Rate (t/h)

3000
Bottleneck

2500
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1000 1
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Scenarios
Figure 4—Forecast comminution circuit KPIs for Domains 1–3

6 | SAG CONFERENCE 2023 VANCOUVER |September 24-28

Discussion and Conclusions

If strategies are being re-visited and optimized more frequently, leveraging the drill-and-blast practice for
delivering qualified ore feed in size and metal content improves the process plant performance in the short term
while generating significant value over the LOM. For this study, we exemplified the application of a cross-
disciplinary console built for mine-to-mill studies for the case of a large copper mine, with three ore domains
similar in competence variability (Domain 1, 30<A×b<52; Domain 2, 28<A×b<51; Domain 3, 28<A×b<66). A
strategic objective would be to maintain optimal performance over the LOM. For this purpose, it is critical to
develop domain-based drill-and-blast designs to feed the comminution circuit with the qualified PSD. On the
other hand, integrating ore competence variability into simulations enables a better evaluation of milling
capacity in the short- and long-term; for the long term, milling capacity is a crucial input to the strategic mine
planning, which aims to maximize net present value (NPV) over the LOM.

Tables 4 and 5 re-confirm that investing in additional explosives supports improved milling performance and can
lower specific comminution energy. More importantly, the variation in the milling rates for each ore domain
represents the extent of ore competence variability and change of ore feed PSD. To explain further, the
accumulation of coarser and harder particles in the mill restricts throughput, while softer and smaller particles
empty the mill quickly. Improved blasting practices can produce a finer feed, offsetting the difficulties in grinding
a harder ore type in the SAG milling stage. However, processing a feed with a high proportion of soft particles in
SABC grinding circuits can also cause an imbalance in installed power and restrict throughput. Bottlenecks can
arise throughout the mining value chain due to various factors such as operational issues, design limitations, ore
variability, operator actions.

Figure 4 illustrates circuit KPIs for the considered ore domains. Depending on the feed characteristics, the
bottleneck shifts between the coarse (SAG mill-limited=1) and fine (Ball-mill limited=2) grinding stages, depicted
by black asterisk (*). The results also highlight that the bottleneck governs the total circuit throughput. This
phenomenon should be accounted for in any mine-to-mill evaluation, particularly at a strategic level; if it is not
well understood, any upstream improvement can be diminished by an imbalanced comminution circuit. The SAG
milling stage presents a significant operational challenge due to feed size and competency variations, resulting
in unstable load conditions and changes in comminution characteristics and discharge rate. In SABC circuits, feed
size and properties changes may cause an imbalance in installed power between the SAG and ball milling units,
leading to a bottleneck shift from SAG to ball mill and underutilization of available power, thereby limiting
throughput. In some cases, crushed SAG pebbles, generally comprising harder components, are diverted to the
ball milling stage to improve SAG mill throughput, resulting in the ball milling stage becoming an operational
bottleneck. Failure to harmonize the interaction between SAG and ball milling units in response to changes in
feed size or ore properties can result in missed opportunities for finer fragmentation from optimized blasting
practices. Various operational strategies may mitigate the risk of shifting bottlenecks from SAG to ball mills,
including increasing hydrocyclone cut size and adjusting pebble port size and SAG discharge screen aperture.
However, these strategies must be reviewed for possible negative impacts on flotation recovery.

The proposed mine-to-mill analytics console is based on using an industry-wide set of equations, where the
technology allows easy extension and customization of the console for addressing more sophisticated problems
in the minerals industry. The question was asked: How can blast design be optimized in each ore domain to
improve downstream performance? It depends on site operational, environmental, and safety considerations
and regulations. From the drill-and-blast design-optimization standpoint, with a constant blasthole diameter, the
powder factor decreases by enlarging the pattern (burden × spacing), which results in coarser fragmentation and
a reduction in the uniformity index which is not desirable; however, it does reduce specific drilling (m/m3) and
drilling time. Nevertheless, Figure 3 confirms that after trying a range of feasible blasthole diameters (178, 203,
251, 311 mm), similar powder factors and energy levels are achievable through different patterns, and applying

7 | SAG CONFERENCE 2023 VANCOUVER |September 24-28

more intense blasts could improve the milling rate on average (although this strategy could result in restricting
the ball milling stage unless the hydrocyclone cut-size is optimized—which generally means increased).

The blast-design alternatives offer a range of powder factors between 0.25 and 2.04 kg/m3. However, safety and
environmental regulations regarding ground vibration, noise and ground damage, which require limiting peak
particle velocity (PPV) by imposing a limit on the maximum instantaneous charge. Accordingly, considering minor
competence (Axb) differences between the three ore domains that are under no operational and environmental
restrictions, the maximum highest powder factor is preferred (i.e., B × S = 5 m × 6 m; D = 311 mm; TITAN 5040).
However, to deliver a constant PSD, the blast design could be different for each geological domain, depending
on rock strength (uniaxial compressive strength) and structures (discontinuities frequency). In this study’s blast
fragmentation model, we assumed rock mass properties constant. In the presence of strength, and more
importantly structural differences, the blast pattern plays a key role in efficiently distributing explosive energy
within the rock mass: for example, applying tighter patterns using smaller blasthole diameters in blocky zones to
mitigate the risk of poor fragmentation or boulder production. The mine-to-mill analytics console allows
integrating such logic into its blast-design optimization process, which we will considered in future work.

In summary, forecasting consoles can play a pivotal role in enhancing mining excellence in practice, by enabling
engineers to test their hypotheses within a reasonable time frame. Moreover, simulation consoles can assist in
identifying potential hazards and inefficiencies, thereby facilitating proactive problem-solving and continuous
improvement in mining operations. One of the main objectives of this study was to introduce the mineral industry
to SIMULIA Isight, an industry-proven technology for design automation and simulation, which can aid in
developing customized, cross-disciplinary consoles. This technology is expected to empower engineers from
various disciplines to address their daily challenges by forecasting the impact of changes applied within the value
chain, thus reducing the risk of adversely impacting sub-unit performance.

Of greater significance, the potential benefit of cross-disciplinary consoles lies in the enhanced understanding
they foster among upstream and downstream engineers regarding operational barriers. This, in turn, enables
more effective communication and collaborative problem-solving aimed at maximizing overall value, as opposed
to merely optimizing the performance of individual silos. Note that future work aims to improve the Process
Analytics node of the mine-to-mill analytics console by integrating more equipment and unit models, unlocking
other capabilities of the platform (e.g., Approximation, Monte Carlo, Six Sigma, Target Solver, and Data Matching),
and also using programming languages to script the model. The GEOVIA-developed consoles (drill & blast
analytics, mine-to-mill analytics, and integrated strategic mine planning) aim to assist mining companies in
reducing the time and effort required to generate a more-comprehensive risk profile. This profile incorporates
ore-body knowledge, market trends, and the status of operations across the value chain.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge Dassault Systèmes for sponsoring this work, and allowing the authors to
present this paper at SAG Conference 2023. We sincerely thank the SAG Conference organizers and reviewers
for their dedication and hard work in bringing the field together and providing a platform for knowledge
exchange.

8 | SAG CONFERENCE 2023 VANCOUVER |September 24-28

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