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Mathematics Internal Assessment

IB Level

Predicting the 2024 Olympics Using Numerical Analysis and Lagrange Polynomial

Session:

Number of Pages: 16 Pages (Excluding the Title Page, and Works Cited Page)
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Introduction
The world Olympic games held regularly, once in every four years plays a pivotal role in athletic

achievement. The games bring together finest, and the most competent competitors from across

the world to showcase their potentials in array of different sporting activities. As an enthusiast of

sporting activities held in world Olympics, in particular swimming competition, I am always

captivated by the spirit, and relentless, and unwavering dedication shown by the athletes taking

part in the Olympics, having closely followed both the winter, and summer Olympics since my

childhood. I strongly believe that these dynamics have motivated my continued improvement in

localized competitive swimming activities. However, I have not been able to predict the

performance of different countries based on the number of medals that they scope in these

Olympic competitions. However, in the backdrop of these developments, I have recently had an

opportunity to learn different mathematical modelling concepts in the IB, including functions,

and numerical analysis, among others, and how used to analyze, and predict periodic occurrences

in real-world situations. I believe that these concepts could be used to foretell performance of

different countries in the Olympic gaming activities. It is with this conviction, and my underlying

interest in world Olympics that I decided to come up with this mathematics-based investigation

aiming to predict the likely performance in the 2024 summer Olympic competition in a select. I

believe that this investigation will provide a suitable opportunity to connect my long-time

passion of Olympic gaming activities with academic concepts of numerical analysis learned in

IB. In addition, since the process of predicting the performance will involve analyzing trends in

historical data, this investigation will also provide a platform of contributing positively to sport

analytics, whose insights can be utilized in other fields.

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Aims of the Investigation and Statement of the Plan

This investigation is designed with a sole aim of predicting the performance in 2024 summer

Olympics using numerical analysis, and Langrage Polynomial functions. This performance will

be analyzed, and predicted using the number of medals scoped based on historical data, and

trends. The select country that this investigation will consider is the United States of America;

the most successful country in the summer Olympics currently. The historical data on the

number of medals earned between 1980, and 2020 will be collected. Once these pieces of data

have been collected, it will be organized, and presented in line graph for each of the two

countries. The general trends in each graph will be analyzed. After that, the data sets will be used

in two different forms of polynomial functions; a cubic function, and a more general Lagrange

polynomial function. After that, the two functions will be analyzed numerically through average

deviation to find the most appropriate function to use in predicting the likely performance of

each country in the oncoming summer Olympics in 2024, finding, and comparing the number of

medals likely to be won by each country. Finally, a summative conclusion, and evaluation

section will be created.

Data Collection

The data sets on general performance (number of medals) won by the United States of America

in the summer Olympics between 1980, and 2020 were collected from the database of United

States Olympic & Paralympic Committee (1). The choice of collecting such voluminous datasets

was an indication of enhanced validity in the findings of this investigation. All the pieces of data

collected were as presented below.

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Table 1: Performance in the Summer Olympics between 1980, and 2020 in the USA

Time (Year) Number of Medals

Gold Silver Bronze Total

1980 24 34 32 46

1984 36 38 27 83

1988 3 12 21 36

1992 5 13 19 37

1996 13 27 34 44

2000 3 5 17 37

2004 36 39 26 91

2008 36 38 38 112

2012 46 29 29 104

2016 46 37 38 121

2021 (For 2020) 39 41 33 113

https://www.teamusa.org/

The data sets presented in the above show that the US has been winning three different

forms of medals in the summer Olympic gaming activities over the years; gold medals, bronze

medals, and silver medals between 1980, and 2020. However, for simplified analysis, and

predicting the likely performance in the 2024 competitions, this investigation will adopt, and use

the datasets on the total number of medals in each year played. In addition, the times used in the

first column will be number from t = 0 (for 1980), t =1 (for 1984), …. t = 10 (for 2020) for
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effective modeling of trends. Thus, the improved data for analyzing these trends was as

illustrated below.

Table 2: Performance in the Summer Olympics between 1980, and 2020 in the USA

Time, t (years) Total Number of Medals Won

0 46

1 83

2 36

3 37

4 44

5 37

6 91

7 112

8 104

9 121

10 113

The data sets presented in Table 2 above were then used to create graphical plots in the Excel

application to depict the general trends in the number of medals won in the country over the

years.
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Total Number of Medals Won between 1980 to 2020 against

Time
130
120
110
Total Number of Medals Won

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time, t (years)

Figure 1: A Graph of Total Number of Medals Won between 1980 to 2020 against Time

The graphical plot in presented in Figure 1 above reveals that the number of medals

scoped by the United States of America have been fluctuating over the time within the study

period spanning between 1980, and 2020. Of more importance to this piece of investigation,

based on the fluctuations observed in the number of total medals in the country, a liner function

would be inappropriate in analyzing, and modeling future performances in the Olympic

competitions. Instead, two forms of polynomial functions would be utilized both in the analysis

of trends in the United States of America, and subsequently predicting the likely performances in

the 2024 competitions, imploring different techniques of numerical analysis.

Modelling Summer Olympics

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A. Polynomial 1: Cubic Function

A cubic function is polynomial function written to the highest degree assuming the following

general form, in accordance with the mathematics study of CUEMATH (1):

3 2
y=a t +b t +c t +d

Where:

a , b , c ,∧d are constants ; with a ≠ 0

With respect to the parameters in this investigation, the number of medals won the Olympic

competition can be let to be y, and time be let to be t, in order to model the underlying

relationship using this function.

To use the cubic function, four data sets of time, and number of medals from Table 2 were first

randomly selected to create four functions, such that:

3 2
When t =1 ; 83=a(1) +b(1) +c (1 )+ d

3 2
When t =1 ; 44=a(4 ) + b( 4) + c ( 4 ) + d

3 2
When t =7 ; 112=a (7) + b(7) +c ( 7 ) +d

3 2
When t =10 ; 113=a (10) +b (10) + c ( 10 ) +d

The four systematic equations were then later simplified to have the following general

expressions:

83=a+b +c +d

44=64 a+16 b +4 c+ d
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112=343 a+ 49 a+7 c +d

113=1000 a+100 b+ 10 c+ d

From these four equations, three different matrices could be derived, matrix A containing the

values of y (number of medals), matrix B containing the coefficients in the terms on the right-

hand side of the equations, and matrix C containing the constant terms:

[][ ] []
83 1 1 1 1 a
44 64 16 4 1 b
¿= ,¿= ,∧¿=
112 343 49 7 1 c
113 1000 100 10 1 d

The solution to the parameters in matrix C could be determined through the inverse relationship

of three matrices, in accordance with the mathematics study of Libretext (1):

−1
C=B A

By the parameters of the three matrices were substituted into the above equation:

[][ ][ ]
−1
a 1 1 1 1 83
b 64 16 4 1 44
=
c 343 49 7 1 112
d 1000 100 10 1 113

The operation of the inverse matrix was computed first using a GDC calculator, before

multiplying substituting back to the equation:

[ ][ ]
−1
1 1 1 1 0.009 −0.027 0.027 −0.009
64 16 4 1 −0.098 0.349 −0.405 0.153
=
343 49 7 1 −0.032 −0.848 1.459 −0.579
1000 100 10 1 1.121 0.525 −1.081 0.434

Thus:
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[][ ][ ]
a 0.009 −0.027 0.027 −0.009 83
b −0.098 0.349 −0.405 0.153 44
=
c −0.032 −0.848 1.459 −0.579 112
d 1.121 0.525 −1.081 0.434 113

The terms in the rows of the second matrix were then multiplied with the corresponding terms in

the third matrix to determine the precise values of constants, a, b, c, and d:

a=0.009 ( 83 ) −0.027 ( 44 ) +0.027(112)−0.009(113 )

¿ 1.566

b=−0.098 ( 83 )+ 0.349 ( 44 )−0.405 ¿ 112 ¿+0.153(113)

¿−20.849

c=−0.0 32 ( 83 )−0.848 ( 44 ) +1.459 ( 112 )−0.579(113)

¿ 58.013

d=1.121 ( 83 )+ 0.525 ( 44 ) −1.081(112)+ 0. 434 (113)

¿ 44.113

Thus, the overall cubic polynomial function for predicting the number of medals won by the

United States of America in the Olympic competition in any defined time period, t, would be

such that:

3 2
y=1.566 t −20.849 t + 58.013 t+ 44.113

This equation was used to compute the estimated number of medals at different points in time.

For a sample the estimated number of total models won by the USA in the Olympics in 1992,

when t = 4, would be such that:

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3 2
y=1.566 (4 ) −20.849 ( 4 ) + 58.013(4 )+ 44.113

¿ 42.805

≅ 43

The estimated number of medals won in the other years were computed in the similar approach,

and the results obtained recorded into Table 3 below.

Table 3: Estimates Number of Models the Summer Olympics in Different Years in the USA

Time (years) Time, t Estimates of Total Number of Medals Won

1980 0 44

1984 1 83

1988 2 89

1992 3 73

1996 4 43

2000 5 9

2004 6 0

2008 7 0

2012 8 0

2016 9 19

2020 10 105

The data presented in Table 3 above was used to create a graphical plot of estimates of the total

number of models won in the Olympics against time, as presented in Figure 2 below, drawn

together with the actual dataset.

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Figure 2: Graphs of Total Number of Medals Won between 1980 to 2020 against Time
The graphical plot of cubic model (function) drawn above assume a completely deviating trend

from the graph of plotted using the actual datasets. However, the function would be utilized in

the analysis.

B. Polynomial 2: Lagrange Polynomial

The Langrage polynomial is a function calculated through a Langrage interpolation approach to

estimate the different values of a function at any arbitrary points of the independent variable

(Geeks 1). Thus, this type of polynomial function could be suitable in finding estimates of the

number of medals won by the United States of America at any particular point of time. The

general formula of Lagrange polynomial is such that:

( x−x 1 )( x −x2 ) … .. ( x−x n ) ( x−x 1 )( x−x 2) ( x−x 3 ) … .. ( x−x n−1 )

y= y 0 +…+ yn
( x 0−x 1 ) ( x 0−x 2 ) … .. ( x 0−x n ) ( x n−x 1 )( x n−x 2) ( x n−x 3 ) … .. ( x n−x n−1 )
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This investigation would use this function to compute to work out the general Lagrange

polynomial function of finding modeling the number of medals won in the Olympics in the USA,

but having to define the variables, as displayed in the following generative table, using values

from Table 2.

Table 4: Generative Distribution Table for the Lagrange Polynomial

x y

x 0=0 y 0=46

x 1=1 y 1=83

x 2=2 y 2=36

x 3=3 y 3=37

x 4 =4 y 4 =44

x 5=5 y 5=37

x 6=6 y 6=91

x 7=7 y 7=112

x 8=8 y 8=104

x 9=9 y 9=121

x n=1 0 y 10=1 13

These dataset values would need to be substituted into the equation preceding Table 4 above.

However, the computations would be too complex considering there are ten datapoints that

would have to be fed into the equation. Instead, a portion of 6 data points datasets were fed into

an online calculator, to work out the Lagrange Polynomial equation, as displayed by the

screenshot in Figure 3 below.

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Figure 3: A Screenshot Showing a Portion of Data Points, and Lagrange Polynomial Equation
From the screenshot displayed in Figure 3 above:

6 5 4 3 2
x 97 x 12947 x 116707 x 29137 x 17833 x
f ( x )= y= + − + − + + 46
3360 672 3360 3360 240 140

This polynomial function would then be simplified further, ending up with the following general

function for predicting the number of medals won by the United States of America in the

Olympic competition in any defined time period, t, would be such that:

6 5 4 3 2
y=0.0003 t +0.144 t −3.853 t +34.734 t −121.404 t +127.379 t+ 46

For a sample the estimated number of total models won by the USA in the Olympics in 1992,

when t = 4, would be such that:

6 5 4 3 2
y=0.0003(4 ) + 0.144(4) −3.853 ( 4 ) +34.734 ( 4 ) −121.404 ( 4 ) +127.379 (4)+ 46

¿−1.655

≅0
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The estimated number of medals won in the other years were computed in the similar approach,

and the results obtained recorded into Table 5 below.

Table 5: Estimates Number of Models the Summer Olympics in Different Years in the USA

Time (years) Time, t Estimates of Total Number of Medals Won

1980 0 46

1984 1 83

1988 2 36

1992 3 0

1996 4 0

2000 5 36

2004 6 83

2008 7 107

2012 8 94

2016 9 63

2020 10 83

The data presented in Table 5 above was used to create a graphical plot of estimates of the total

number of models won in the Olympics against time, as presented in Figure 3 below, drawn

together with the actual dataset.

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Total Number of Medals Won between 1980 to 2020 against Time

Actual Model Langrange Interpolation Polynomial
135

115
Total Number of Medals Won

95

75

55

35

15

-5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time, t (years)

Figure 4: Graphs of Total Number of Medals Won between 1980 to 2020 against Time
The graphical plot of Lagrange Polynomial (function) drawn above assume a relatively similar

trend with the trend from the graph of plotted using the actual datasets. However, the accuracy of

this model (function) would be ascertained in the succeeding sub-section.

C. Analytical Comparison

The cubic, and Lagrange Polynomial functions used to compute the average deviations from

the actual datasets to determine the most appropriate function out of the two for modelling

the performance of USA in the Olympics. The general formula of computing deviation would

be such that:

Deviation , d=| y Actual − y Estimated|

For sample calculation, using the data sets in 1980 while using the cubic polynomial

function:
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Deviation , d=|46−44|

¿2

Table 6: Calculated Deviations in the Analysis of Olympics Performance

Actual Number of Medals, yActual Deviation , d=| y Actual − y Estimated|

Cubic Polynomial Lagrange Polynomial

46 2 0

83 0 0

36 53 0

37 36 37

44 1 44

37 28 1

91 91 8

112 112 5

104 104 10

121 102 58

113 8 30

From the table of deviations presented above:

2+0+53+..+8
Average Deviation for Cubic Function , d cubic=
11

¿ 48.82

0+ 0+0+..+30
Average Deviation for Langrange Function ,d Langrange=
11
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¿ 17.54

Thus, based on the values of the two deviations, the Lagrange interpolation formula would be

the most appropriate function to model, and predict the performance of the United States of

America in the Olympics.

Using this Lagrange Polynomial function, the likely performance (number of medals) in the

2024 Olympic competitions would be, such that:

In 2024, t = 11:

6 5 4 3 2
y=0.0003(11) +0.144 (11) −3.853 ( 11) + 34.734 ( 11) −121.404 ( 11) +127.379(11)+ 46

¿ 299.27

≅ 300

Conclusion, and Evaluation

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This investigative study has successfully shown that it possible to predict the performance of the

United States of America in 2024 summer Olympics using numerical analysis, and Langrage

Polynomial functions. The select country that this investigation was considered as it was the

United States of America, as is the most successful country in the summer Olympics. Out of the

two functions, the Lagrange Polynomial function was found to be the most appropriate function

in analyzing, and predicting performance in the Olympics, with a deviation of 17.54 medals. The

estimated number of medals to be scoped by the United States of America in the 2024 summer

competitions was 300. Even though this investigation could not ascertain this estimate, it

provided a platform of contributing positively to sport analytics, whose insights can be utilized in

other fields.

Works Cited

CUEMATH. “Cubic Function - Graph, Formula, Examples.” Cuemath, 2018,

www.cuemath.com/calculus/cubic-function/.

Geeks. “Lagrange Interpolation Formula.” GeeksforGeeks, 22 Feb. 2022,

www.geeksforgeeks.org/lagrange-interpolation-formula/.

Libretext. “7.8: Solving Systems with Inverses.” Mathematics LibreTexts, 8 Jan. 2019,

https://math.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Algebra/College_Algebra_1e_(OpenStax)/

07%3A_Systems_of_Equations_and_Inequalities/

708%3A_Solving_Systems_with_Inverses

United States Olympic & Paralympic Committee (USOPC). “TeamUSA.org - Home.” Team

USA, 2022, www.teamusa.org/.

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