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Probability
Probability
● Classical Probability
● Conditional Probability and Independent Events
● Total Probability law
● Bayes’ Theorem
● Random Variable and Probability Distribution
● Bernoulli’s trial and Binomial Distribution
Classical Probability
We have been doing this basic definition of probability from 10th
class. Before learning any new concept let’s practice it little more.
(a) Out of 10 men & 8 women, a committee of 3 persons is made
randomly. Find the probability that it constitutes of 2 men & 1 women.
(b) An urn contains 8 white balls & 2 green balls. A sample of 3 balls is
selected randomly. Find the probability that the sample contains at
least one green ball.
(a) Out of 10 men & 8 women, a committee of 3 persons is made
randomly. Find the probability that it constitutes of 2 men & 1 women.
Solution:

Here, total number of ways = 18C3 = 816

n(S) = 816
Required number of ways = 10C2 × 8C1 = 360
n(A) = 360
(b) An urn contains 8 white balls & 2 green balls. A sample of 3 balls is
selected randomly. Find the probability that the sample contains at least
one green ball.

Remark
In such cases balls are always
considered distinct, even if balls of
same colour are given to be identical.
Solution: Total number of balls in the urn = 10
Three balls can be drawn in 10C3 ways = 120 ways.
Let A be the event “at least one green ball is selected”.
The favourable outcomes contains either one green ball or two
green balls.

Hence, the number of outcomes favourable to one green ball

= 2C1 x 8C2 = 2 x 28 = 56
Similarly, the number of outcomes favorable to two green balls
= 2C2 x 8C1 = 1 x 8 = 8
Hence, the probability of at least one green ball is P (at least
one green ball)
= P (one green ball) + P(two green balls)
Twelve distinct balls are distributed among three boxes. What is the
probability that the first box will contain 3 balls?
Solution:

Since each ball can go to any one of the three boxes, there are
3 ways in which a ball can go to any one of the three boxes.
Thus there are 312 ways in which 12 balls can be placed in 3
boxes.
Number of ways in which 3 balls out of 12 can be put in the first
box is 12C3.
Now the remaining 9 balls are to be placed in 2 boxes and this
can be done in 29 ways. Hence the total number of favourable
cases = 12C3 x 29

So, the required probability

An even number of cards is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. Find the
probability that half of these cards will be red and the other half black.
Solution:
The number of ways of drawing an even number of cards is
52C
2 + 52C4 + 52C6 + … + 52C52
= (52C0 + 52C2 + 52C4 + … + 52C52) - 52C0
= 252 - 1 - 1 [∵ nC0 + nC2 + … = nC1 + nC3 + … = 2n-1]
= 251 - 1.
There are 26 red cards and 26 black cards. Therefore, the total
number of ways of drawing cards such that half of them are red and
half of them are black is
26C
1 x 26C1 + 26C2 x 26C2 + … + 26C26 x 26C26
= (26C1)2 + (26C2)2 + … + (26C26)2
= [(26C0)2 + (26C1)2 + (26C2)2 + … + (26C26)2] - (26C0)2
= 52C26 - 1 [ ∵ (nC0)2 + (nC1)2 + … + (nCn)2 = 2nCn]
Solution:

So, favourable number of ways = 52C26 - 1

Hence, the required probability

 JEE Main 27th June, 2022 Shift-2
If a point A(x, y) lies in the region bounded by the y-axis and the straight
lines 2y + x = 6 and 5x - 6y = 30, then the probability that y < 1 is:

D
 JEE Main 27th June, 2022 Shift-2
If a point A(x, y) lies in the region bounded by the y-axis and the straight
lines 2y + x = 6 and 5x - 6y = 30, then the probability that y < 1 is:

D
Solution:
Recall

Odds in favour of event A

Odds against event A

Recall

Odds in favour of event A

Odds against event A

A single fair die is rolled. Find the odds in favour of rolling a number
greater than 3.
Solution:

In a single roll of die, the numbers greater than 3 are 4, 5, 6.

Thus, n(S) = 6 and n(A) = 3
∴ odds in favour of rolling a number greater than 3 is
The chance of an event happening is square of chance of second event
happening but the odds against first is cube of odds against the second.
Find chances of events
Solution:

Let first event is A and second event is B

Then, according to question
P(A) = (P(B))2 ….(i) and

Let P(A) is x and P(B) is y

Solution:
Solving (i) and (ii), we get

Using (i),
Recall

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)
Remark
As we use Venn diagram for cardinality problems of sets, same
way Venn diagrams are used here in probability problems.
 IIT 2002

If & then P(B ∩ C) =

D
 IIT 2002

If & then P(B ∩ C) =

D
Solution:

Here,

C c
e b B
f g
a d
A
Observation
Observation
Conditional Probability and
Independent Events
Probability of occurrence of event A given that event B has already
occurred is known as conditional probability.

i.e.
Probability of occurrence of event A given that event B has already
occurred is known as conditional probability.

i.e.

d
a c b
A B
(a) If , & then find P(A ∪ B)

(b) Two dice are thrown. Find the probability that sum of the numbers
coming up on them is 9, if it is known that the number 5 always occurs on
the first die.
(a) If , & then find P(A ∪ B)
Solution:

Given,

Similarly,
(b) Two dice are thrown. Find the probability that sum of the numbers
coming up on them is 9, if it is known that the number 5 always occurs
on the first die.
Solution:
If then find
Solution:

Given,
d
a c b
A B
We need
Solution:

Here, a + b + c + d = 1
Using (1), (2) and (3)
0.5 + 0.4 + d = 1
d = 0.1
⇒ b = 0.2, c = 0.2
Multiple Correct Question JEE Adv 2017
Let X and Y be two events such that and

D
Multiple Correct Question JEE Adv 2017
Let X and Y be two events such that and

D
Solution:
A committee of 4 students in selected at random from a group
consisting 8 boys and 4 girls. Given that there is at least one girl in the
committee, calculate the probability that there are exactly 2 girls on the
committee.
Solution:

Let A denote the event that at least one girl will be chosen, and B
the event that exactly 2 girls will be chosen. We require P(B|A).
Since A denotes the event that at least one girl will be chosen, A’
denotes that no girl is chosen, i.e., 4 boys are chosen. Then
Observation

(a)

This is called multiplication theorem.

General:
Observation
(b) Two events are independent if
i.e.
NOTE
If A & B are independent events then so are ,
Lets first do few questions on multiplication theorem & then we will pick
independent events examples.
There are 10 cards, 5 of these have ‘I’ & other 5 have ‘T’ printed on them.
3 cards are drawn one by one without replacement & are kept in same
order, then probability of making the word IIT is

D
There are 10 cards, 5 of these have ‘I’ & other 5 have ‘T’ printed on them.
3 cards are drawn one by one without replacement & are kept in same
order, then probability of making the word IIT is

D
Solution:

Here we need two cards to be taken out as ‘I’ card and

one ‘T’ card
Observation
Observe that multiplication theorem comes into play when
order matters.
Remark
Drawing ‘r’ cards one by one without replacement & drawing ‘r’
cards randomly, are equivalent if order does not matter.

Eg: There are 10 cards, 5 of them have ‘I’ & other five have ‘T’
printed on them. 3 cards are draw one by one without replacement
then probability of getting 2 I’s & 1 T is:
Remark
Drawing ‘r’ cards one by one without replacement & drawing ‘r’
cards randomly, are equivalent if order does not matter.

Eg: There are 10 cards, 5 of them have ‘I’ & other five have ‘T’
printed on them. 3 cards are draw one by one without replacement
then probability of getting 2 I’s & 1 T is:
Now, lets pick another variety of question, majorly based upon
independent events & mutually exclusive events.
Recall
(a) If A & B are independent events then P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B)
(b) If A & B are Mutually Exclusive events then P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
A and B are two candidates seeking admission in a college. The
probability that A is selected is 0.7 and the probability that exactly one
of them is selected is 0.6. Find the probability that B is selected.
 A and B are two candidates seeking admission in a college. The
probability that A is selected is 0.7 and the probability that exactly one
of them is selected is 0.6. Find the probability that B is selected.
Ans: 0.25
Solution:

Let p be the probability that B gets selected.

⇒ P(A is selected, B is not selected; B is selected, A is not
selected) = 0.6
⇒ P(A ∩ B’) + P(A’ ∩ B) = 0.6
⇒ P(A) P(B’) + P(A’) P(B) = 0.6
⇒ (0.7) (1 - p) + (0.3)p = 0.6
⇒ p = 0.25
Multiple Correct Question IIT-JEE-2012
Let X and Y be two events such that and

Which of the following is (are) correct?

B X and Y are independent

C X and Y are not independent

D
Multiple Correct Question IIT-JEE-2012
Let X and Y be two events such that and

Which of the following is (are) correct?

B X and Y are independent

C X and Y are not independent

D
Solution:
 JEE Adv 2013
Four persons independently solve a certain problem correctly with
probabilities Then, the probability that the problem is solved
correctly by at least one of them, is

D
 JEE Adv 2013
Four persons independently solve a certain problem correctly with
probabilities Then, the probability that the problem is solved
correctly by at least one of them, is

D
Solution:

Probability that the problem is solved correctly by atleast one

of them = 1 – (Problem not solved by all)
Three students appear at an examination of JEE Advanced.
The probabilities of their success are respectively. Find the
probability of success of at least two.
Solution:
Ram plays 3 games of chess with Shyam. Probability that Ram wins it
0.5, that he loses is 0.3 while for tie its 0.2. Find the probability that Ram
wins exactly 2 games
 Ram plays 3 games of chess with Shyam. Probability that Ram wins it
0.5, that he loses is 0.3 while for tie its 0.2. Find the probability that Ram
wins exactly 2 games

Ans: 0.375
Solution:

Here let A, B and C be the events of Ram winning, losing and

Tie for a game

Now, out of two games, either he can win 2 and draw 1 or win
2 and tie 1

⸫ Required probability
= 3(0.5)2 (0.3) + 3(0.5)2(0.2)
= 0.375
Two persons A and B throw a die alternately till one of them gets a
‘three’ and wins the game. If A starts the game, then find the probability
that A wins the game.
Solution:

Let A be the event that A gets three and B be the event that B
gets three
Probability that A wins the game
= P(A) + P(A’) P(B’) P(A) + P(A’) P(B’) P(A’) P(B’) P(A) + ……∞
Total Probability Law
Three bags contains white & black balls as per :

Probabilities of selecting Bag 1, Bag 2 & Bag 3

are 0.2, 0.3 & 0.5 respectively. A ball is randomly selected. Find
the probability that ball is white.
Solution:
Let event E1 = Ball is drawn from Bag 1, E2 = Ball is drawn from Bag,
E3 = Ball is drawn from Bag 3
A = White ball is selected.

Probability of ball drawn is white

NOTE
In above question, had probabilities of Bag1, 2 & 3 been not
given, then we would have taken it to be ⅓ for all the three bags
There are two bags, one of which contains 3 black and 4 white balls
while the other contains 4 black and 3 white balls. A die is cast. If the
face 1 or 3 turns up, a ball is taken from the first bag, and if any other
face turn up, a ball is chosen from the second bag. Find the probability
of choosing a black ball.
Solution:
Remark

This is nothing but Total Probability.

E1 E3
A

E2
 JEE Main 2019
An urn contains 5 red and 2 green balls. A ball is drawn at random from
the urn. If the drawn balls is green, then a red ball is added to the urn
and if the drawn ball is red, then a green ball is added to the urn; the
original ball is not returned to the urn. Now, a second ball is drawn at
random from it. The probability that the second ball is red, is

D
 JEE Main 2019
An urn contains 5 red and 2 green balls. A ball is drawn at random from
the urn. If the drawn balls is green, then a red ball is added to the urn
and if the drawn ball is red, then a green ball is added to the urn; the
original ball is not returned to the urn. Now, a second ball is drawn at
random from it. The probability that the second ball is red, is

D
Solution:
A bag contains n + 1 coins. It is known that one of these coins shows heads on
both sides, whereas the other coins are fair. One coin is selected at random and
tossed. If the probability that toss results in heads is then the value of n is

A 3

B 4

C 5

D None of these
A bag contains n + 1 coins. It is known that one of these coins shows heads on
both sides, whereas the other coins are fair. One coin is selected at random and
tossed. If the probability that toss results in heads is then the value of n is

A 3

B 4

C 5

D None of these
Solution:

Let E1, denote the event “a coin with two heads is selected
and E2, denote the event “a fair coin is selected”.
Let A be the event “the toss results in heads” Then,
Baye’s Theorem
Now, let’s pick Baye’s theorem. Again first let’s consider an example to
understand it before formulating it formally.
There are 3 bags which are known to contains white & black balls as:

Probabilities of Bag 1, 2 & 3 being selected is 0.2, 0.3 & 0.5

respectively. A ball is drawn at random & is found to be white. Find the
probability that it came from Bag 1.
Solution:
Let E1 = Bag 1 is selected, E2 = Bag 2 is selected
E3 = Bag 3 is selected
A = White ball is drawn.

Try to observe we need to find

Remark

(a) Baye’s Theorem:

(b) Whenever the outcome of an experiment is given &

probability of it being occurring through a particular path is
asked, then Baye’s theorem is applied. Paths are denoted by Ei’s
& outcome is denoted by A.
 JEE Main 29th July, 2022 - Shift 2
Bag I contains 3 red, 4 black and 3 white balls and Bag II contains 2 red,
5 black and 2 white balls. One ball is transferred from Bag I to Bag II and
then a ball is draw from Bag II. The ball so drawn is found to be black in
colour. Then the probability, that the transferred ball is red, is:

D
 JEE Main 29th July, 2022 - Shift 2
Bag I contains 3 red, 4 black and 3 white balls and Bag II contains 2 red,
5 black and 2 white balls. One ball is transferred from Bag I to Bag II and
then a ball is draw from Bag II. The ball so drawn is found to be black in
colour. Then the probability, that the transferred ball is red, is:

D
Solution:
3R 2R
4B 5B
3W 2W

A : Drawn ball from bag II is black

B : Red ball transferred
Box 1 contains 4 red and 5 white balls, box 2 contains 3 red and 2 white.
2 balls are drawn from box I and are transferred to box II. 1 ball is then
drawn from box II. Find the probability that transferred balls were both
red given that ball drawn from box II is white.
Solution:

E1 = Both red balls are drawn

E2 = Both white balls are drawn
E3 = 1 red and 1 white ball is drawn
A = white ball is drawn from box II
Solution:
A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and
reports that it is a six. Find the probability that it is actually a six.
Solution:
Let E1, E2 and A be the events defined as follows:
E1 = six occurs, E2 = six does not occur, and A = the man
reports that it is a six.
We have
Now, P(A/E1) = Probability that the man reports that there
is a six on the die given that six has occured on the die
= Probability the man speaks truth
And, = Probability that the man reports that there
is six on the die given that six has not occured on the die
= Probability that the man does not speak truth
Solution:

We have to find P(E1/A) i.e., the probability that there is

six on the die given that the man has reported that there
is six.
By Baye’s rule, we have
Random Variable and its
Probability Distribution
Random Variable:
Let S be the sample space associated with given experiment. The real
valued function ‘X’ whose domain is S is called a random variable.
Random Variable:
Let S be the sample space associated with given experiment. The real
valued function ‘X’ whose domain is S is called a random variable.
Probability Distribution Function:
If a random variable takes value x1, x2, …., xn with respective
probabilities P1, P2, …., Pn. Then

is called Probability Distribution Function of ‘x’.

Eg: Two coins are tossed simultaneously. Let ‘X’ be the
number of tails appeared then
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
X = No. of tails appeared.
Here X is a random variable & its PDF is
Remark

(a) Mean (or Expectation) of X i.e.

Here,

(b) Variance of X i.e.

Here is nothing but mean value of ‘X’ i.e. E(X)

The probability distribution of a random variable X is given below:

(i) Determine the value of k. (ii) Determine P(X ≤ 2) and P(X > 2)
Solution:
 JEE Main 28th July, 2022 - Shift 2
A bag contains 4 white and 6 black balls. Three balls are drawn at
random from the bag. Let X be the number of white balls, among the
drawn balls. If 𝝈2 is the variance of X, then 100 𝝈2 is equal to _____.
 JEE Main 28th July, 2022 - Shift 2
A bag contains 4 white and 6 black balls. Three balls are drawn at
random from the bag. Let X be the number of white balls, among the
drawn balls. If 𝝈2 is the variance of X, then 100 𝝈2 is equal to _____.

Ans: 56
Solution:
Bernoulli Trials and Binomial
Distribution
Bernoulli trial
Trials of a random experiment are called Bernoulli trials if

(a) There are finite number of trials

(b) Trials are independent
(c) Each trial has exactly two outcomes: Success or failure
(d) Probability of success remains same in each trial
Binomial distribution:

It can be easily observed that when Bernoulli’s trial is repeated ‘n’

times, then probability of getting ‘r’ successes and n – r failures is

given by
Binomial distribution:

It can be easily observed that when Bernoulli’s trial is repeated ‘n’

times, then probability of getting ‘r’ successes and n – r failures is

given by

Where random variable ‘X’ is representing number of successes, p is

probability of success & q is probability of failure

Clearly p + q = 1

Remark

Here, X is said to follow binomial distribution with parameters ‘n’ & ‘p’
A drunkard takes a step forward or backward with
then what is the probability that after 3 steps,
(i) he is 1 step ahead of initial position.
(ii) he is 1 step away from initial position.
Solution:

(i) Here, if he take 2 steps forward (ii) Here, if he take 1 step forward and 2
and 1 step backward, then he is 1 steps backward, then he is 1 step away
step ahead of initial position. from initial position.
Using Binomial distribution, Using Binomial distribution,
We get We get
The least number of times a fair coin must be tossed so that the
probability of getting at least one head is at least 0.8, is

A 7

B 6

C 5

D 3
The least number of times a fair coin must be tossed so that the
probability of getting at least one head is at least 0.8, is

A 7

B 6

C 5

D 3
Solution:

Suppose the coin is tossed n times. Let X be the number

of heads obtained. Then, X follows a binomial distribution
with parameters n and
Now, P(X ≥ 1) ≥ 0.8 ⇒ 1 - P(X = 0) ≥ 0.8
⇒ 1 - nC0 p0 (1 - p)n ≥ 0.8

⇒ n ≥ 3.
A box contains 24 identical balls of which 12 are white and 12 are black.
The balls are drawn at random from the box one at a time with
replacement. Find the probability that a white ball is drawn for the
fourth time on 7th draw?
Solution:
Here, we need 7th drawn ball to be white, such that before it 3 white
balls have been drawn out of previous 6 draws
Using binomial distribution

Probability of drawing white ball p =

Probability of drawing black ball q =

⸫ Required probability =
If X follows Binomial distribution where trial is repeated n times &
probability of success is p then it is written as: X : B(n, p)

Note :

If X : B(n, p) then:
(a) E(X) = np (b) V(X) = npq
 JEE Main 26th July, 2022 Shift-1
The mean and variance of a binomial distribution are ⍺ and
respectively. If then P(X = 4 or 5) is equal to:

D
 JEE Main 26th July, 2022 Shift-1
The mean and variance of a binomial distribution are ⍺ and
respectively. If then P(X = 4 or 5) is equal to:

D
Solution:
 JEE Main 2019
Let a random variable X have a binomial distribution with mean 8 and
variance 4. If then k is equal to

A 121

B 1

C 17

D 137
 JEE Main 2019
Let a random variable X have a binomial distribution with mean 8 and
variance 4. If then k is equal to

A 121

B 1

C 17

D 137
Solution: