Review of Relevant Probability & Statistical Concepts
Review of Relevant Probability & Statistical Concepts
Review of Relevant Probability & Statistical Concepts
Probability Distributions
Probability Distribution
REVIEW OF RELEVANT PROBABILITY & STATISTICAL CONCEPTS
Population
The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment (Experiment, in statistic, indicates any
operation/process of doing or observing something happens under certain conditions, resulting in certain
outcome.)
or all possible values of an associated random variable
Examples of population are the set of (heads, tails) for the toss of a coin.
Sample
Population and samples are studied through their characteristics. The most
important of these characteristics are the mean, variance and standard deviations.
Characteristics of a population are called parameters; whereas characteristics of a
sample are called as statistics.
picture of certain characteristics of the data. For example, the center of the data and how
much variability is present can be easily observed from a histogram. Numerical
summaries are single numbers computed from sample to describe some characteristics
of the data set. Some common numerical summaries are sample mean, sample
variance, and sample standard deviation.
Statistics mainly deals with phenomena that can be measured or counted. With respect to
a phenomenon that can be measured, we speak of a variable– meaning a homogenous
quantity whose magnitude changes at different points of time. The antithesis of a
variable is a constant that does not change its value over different points of time. When
a constant is joined to a variable it is often referred to as the coefficient of that variable.
However, a coefficient may be symbolic rather than numerical; for example, symbol
"a" stands for given constant in the expression a x , and is called the coefficient of
x . This symbol is supposed to represent a given constant, and yet, since no specific
value is has been assigned to it; it can virtually take any value. In short, therefore, it is a
constant that is variable. To identify its peculiar status, it is also termed as parametric
constant or simply parameter.
If the quantity in question is not constant but a variable, one may be interested in
the source of variation so that it can be controlled. The variables whose values
cannot be fully controlled or determined prior to observations are called
random/stochastic variables. The 100% opposite case is known as non-
random/non-stochastic/deterministic variable.
Random Variable
A variable whose value cannot be determined before it takes a value and can only be
described probabilistically is known as a Random Variable (hereafter, RV) Consider
tossing of two fair coins. The outcomes of this tossing (experiment) can be described
verbally. Let H denotes a head and T denotes a tail. Then we can denote the outcomes of
this experiment as:
In this chapter we will discuss about different types of Probability Distribution – they are
Binomial, Poisson and Normal distribution. We will also discuss about Mathematical
Expectation, Population Mean and Variance. After discussing the theory of probability
distribution, we will see how we can solve different business problems with these statistical tools.
We now introduce the notion of a variable which is called random variable - a variate
value is a variable whose value can not be exactly predicted on any particular occasion. You
know when we toss a coin we can expect head or tail from the experiment but we are not sure
which one will be come up. But we know that either head or tail will be come up. This is certain.
Random variable has been defined as a function which assumes real values on the
outcomes of a random experiment. More precisely, a random variable must have a range or set
of possible values and a definable probability associated with each value.
It is evident that the outcome of the above coin-tossing experiment can not be predicted
exactly but we know what values X can assume and we can also evaluate the probability
associated with these values. Hence we can say that X is a random variable.
1 , 1,
f x P x 0 f x P x 1
4 2
1 .1
f x P x 2
4
The PDF of a continuous RV is conceptually similar to that of a discrete RV, except that
we need to measure the probability over a certain range or interval of values for a
continuous RV. In general, for a continuous RV, the occurrence of any particular/exact
value of x has zero probability. Therefore, for a continuous RV, probabilities are
only valid only for intervals. On the contrary, in order to obtain the PDF of a
discrete RV, we sum its probabilities at certain points. As a result, for the PDF of a
discrete RV, which assumes certain values, we need to change the integration sign to
summation while calculating the PDF of a continuous RV, because the PDF of a discrete
RV is only defined for certain values.
The PDF of continuous and discrete RVs should satisfy some conditions. If x is a
continuous RV on the range , , its PDF must satisfy:
f x 0 , x Condition 1
f x dx 1 Condition 2
Therefore, if x
is a discrete RV, its PDF, P x , which defines the probability that x
assumes certain given values must satisfy:
P x 1 Condition 2
all x
The 1st condition in both the continuous and discrete probability distributions indicates
that a PDF of an RV cannot assume negative values (otherwise the probabilities of some
events may be negative).
Whereas, the 2nd condition for both the continuous and discrete RV shows that the
probability of the entire sample space/outcomes must be equal to 1. In our example,
1 1 1 1 .
4 2 4
Examples of discrete PDF include the Binomial Distribution, Hypergeometric
Distribution and the Poisson Distribution. Whereas, the examples of continuous PDF
include the “Normal Distribution” and its derivatives, and the Exponential Distribution
and Gamma Distribution.
If a variable X can assume a discrete set of values X1, X2, X3 ..... Xn with respective probabilities p1, p2,
p3......pn where p1 + p2 + p3 +......+ pn = 1, we say that a discrete probability distribution for X has been
defined. The function f (X) which has the respective value p1, p2, p3......pn for X = X1, X2, X3 ..... Xn is
called the probability function or probability mass function p.m.f.
The probability mass function f(x) must satisfy the two conditions
i) f(x) ≥0
ii) ∑ f(x) = 1
Example:
Value(X): 3 6 7 11
P: 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1
If X denotes the number of points obtained when an unbiased dice is thrown, the probability
distribution of x is
X: 1 2 3 4 5 6
X: X1 X2 ....... ....... Xn
A player tosses a dice, and if the numbers 1,2 or 3 appear, he receive 10 dollars, if 4 or 5
turns up, he receive 3 dollars, while the occurrence of a 6 costs him 12 dollars. What is the
expectation of the player? Ans. $4
# Anil company estimates the net profit on a new product it is lunching to be Tk. 3,000,000 during
the first year if it successful, Tk. 1,000,000 if it is moderately successful and a loss of Tk. 1,000,000 if
it is unsuccessful. The firm assigns the following probabilities to first year prospects for the product,
successful 0.15, moderately successful 0.25 and unsuccessful 0.60. What are the expected value and
Standard deviation of the first year net profit for the product?
E (X) = 3 x 0.15 + 1 x 0.25 + (-1) x 0.6 = 0.1 million
E (X2) = 9 x 0.15 + 1 x 0.25 + 1 x 0.6 = 2.2 million
Var (X) = E (X2) – [E(X)]2 = 2.2 – (.10)2 = 2. 19
S.D. = √2.19 = 1.48 million
Binomial Distribution
Binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution and is defined by the p.m.f
In a series of n independent trials, if the probability of success in each trial is a constant p, and the
probability of failure is q, then the probability of X success (and obviously n-x failures) is given by the
Binomial distribution.
X: 0 1 2 ........ ......... n
n
p =1
f(X): qn n
C1 p1q n 1 n
C 2 p 2 q n2 ......... ..........
The distribution is known as binomial because the probabilities are given by the binomial series
(q + p)n = qn + nC1 p1q n 1 + n C 2 p 2 q n 2 + ............+ pn
Problem.
Three coins are tossed. Find the probabilities of i) 0 Head ii) 2 Head iii) more than one head iv) at
least one head.
The binomial distribution contains two constant n and p, which distinguish one distribution from
another. These constants are called parameters and empirical estimates of parameters are called
statistics.
n
µ = E(X) = X f (X )
x0
= 0.
n
C 0 p 0 q n 0 + 1. n C1 p 1 q n 1 + …….+ n. n C n p n q n n
= np
2 = Variance = npq
= S.D = npq
Note: If p = q and number of trial n < 30 the binomial distribution should be followed.
Problem
Find the probability that in a family of 4 children there will be (a) at least 1 boy and (b) at least 1 boy
and 1 girl.
Problem
Out of 2000 families with 4 children each, how many would you expect to have (a) at least 1 boy, (b)
2 boys, (c) 1 or 2 girls, and (d) no girls? Refer to the above problem.
Problem
If 20% of the bolt produced by a machine are defective, determine the probability that, out of 4 bolts
chosen at random, (a) 1, (b) 0, and (c) at most 2 bolts will be defective.
Problem Suppose that items coming off a production line are classified as defective or non defective.
The probability of a defective piece is .04. 10 items are drawn at random during a short period and
classified according to the above scheme. What is the probability of (a) no defective (b) at least two
defective or (c) one or two defectives?
P( X= 0) =
10
C0 .040.96100 = 1 .040 0.96 10 = 0.96 10 = .6648
Poisson Distribution
A random variable x is said to have a Poisson distribution if it follows the probability law
e-m mx
p(x) = Where X = 0,1,2.........
x! m = np
Problem
On the average, one in 400 items is defective. If the items are packed in Boxes of 100, what is the
probability that any given box of items will contain
i) No defective ii) less than two defective
ii) one or more defectives iv) more than three defectives
Normal Distribution
Let assume two results have found the success and failure in an experiment and if the possibility of
success and failure are tend to equal each time then this probability can not be determined by
binomial distribution. When the nos. of trials in binomial distribution becomes large and the
probability of success and failure tends to equal each trial then limiting form of binomial distribution
is called normal distribution.
Lt Binomial distribution = Normal distribution
n
p q
A random variable X is said to have a normal distribution with parameter µ (mean) and if the
density function is given by
2
1 x
1
2
y = f(x) = e
2
If we draw the graph of normal distribution, the curve obtained will be known as normal curve. The
graph of y = f(y) is a famous bell shaped curve.
-∞ x= ∞
The normal distribution is approximate to binomial distribution, whether or not p is equal to q, the
binomial tends to the form of the continues curve when n becomes large at least for the material
part of the range.
Lt Binomial distribution = Normal distribution
n
p q
A random variable with any mean and standard deviation can be transformed to a standardized
normal variable by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation.
For a normal distribution with mean µ and standard deviation , the standardized variable
x-µ
z =
A value z represents the distance, expressed as a multiple of the standard deviation, that the value x
lies away from the mean. The z is called a standard normal variate which has mean zero and
standard deviation one.
The probability density function of the standard normal variate z is
1
1 Z2
y = f(z) = e 2
2
Properties of normal curve
1. The normal curve is symmetrical about the mean (skew ness =0).
2. The height of the normal curve is at its maximum at the mean. Mean, median a mode are all
equal
3. Area under the normal curve is one.
4. Normal distribution is a continuous random variable.
5. Two parameters µ and standard deviation
p ( z = 1) = 0.3413
p( z = -1) = 0.3413
here, p( - 1 ≤ z ≤ 1 )
= 0.3413+ 0.3413
Z = -1 Z =0 Z=1
= 0.6826
p(z = z1) = p( - ≤ z ≤ o) + p( 0 ≤ z ≤ z1 )
z1 = 1.27
p(z ≤ 1.27) = 0.5 + .3980 = .8980
p(z ≤ -1.27) = 0.5 – ( -1.27 ≤ z ≤ 0)
z1 = (15-20) / 10 = - .5
z2 = (40-20) /10 = + 2
Problem
A filling machine is set to power 952 ml of wine into bottles. The amounts of fill are normally
distributed with a mean of 952 ml and a standard deviation of 4 ml. using standard normal table to
find the probability that a bottle contains between 952 and 956 ml.
x-µ
z=
At X = 952, which is the mean
z = ( 952 - 952) / 4 = 0
Thus, as always, z = 0 at the mean
At x = 956, we find, z = (956-9520 / 4 = 1
The x interval 952 to 956 becomes the z interval from 0 to 1, from the table
p ( 0 to 1) = p( 0≤ z ≤ 1) = 0.3413
i,e. the probability that a bottle contains between 952 and 956 ml is 0.3413. On other way, 34.13%
of filled bottle will contain between 952 and 956 ml.
Problem
Test scores are normally distributed with mean 70 and sd 8. Find the percent of test scores in the
interval from 54 to 84.
At x = 54, z = -2 and at x = 84, z = 1.75
p( 0 to -2) + p( 0 to 1.75) = p( - 2 ≤ z ≤ o) + p( 0 ≤ z ≤ 1.75) = .4772 + .4599 = .9371
Hence, 93.71 % of the test scores are in the interval from 54 to 84.
Problem
A wholesale distributor of fertilizer products finds the annual demand for one type of fertilizer is
normally distributed with a mean of 120 tones and standard deviation of 16 tones. If he orders only
once a year, what quantity should be ordered to ensure that there is only a 5 percent chance of
running short? (Given that at the level of 5% chance the value of Z = 1.64)
According to the South Dakota Department of Health, the mean number of hours of TV viewing
per week is higher among adult women than men. A recent study showed women spent an average
of 34 hours per week watching TV and men 29 hours per week. Assume that the distribution of
hours watched follows the normal distribution for both groups, and that the standard deviation
among the women is 4.5 hours and is 5.1 hours for the men.
i) What percent of the women watch TV less than 40 hours per week?
ii) What percent of the men watch TV more than 25 hours per week?
In recent years a new type of taxi service has evolved in more than 300 cities worldwide, where the
customer is connected directly with a driver via a smartphone. The idea was first developed by Uber
Technologies, which is headquartered in San Francisco, California. It uses the Uber mobile app,
which allows customers with a smartphone to submit a trip request which is then routed to a Uber
driver who picks up the customer and takes the customer to the desired location. No cash is
involved, the payment for the transaction is handled via a digital payment. Suppose the weekly
income of Uber drivers follows the normal probability distribution with a mean of $1,000 and a
standard deviation of $100. What is the z value of income for a driver who earns $1,100 per week?
For a driver who earns $900 per week? What is the likelihood of selecting a driver whose weekly
income is between $1,000 and $1,100?
Sol.
The z values corresponding to the two x values ($1,100 and $900) are:
We have already converted $1,100 to a z value of 1.00, from the Z table value we find the area
under the normal curve between $1,000 and $1,100 is .3413. We could also say 34.13% of Uber
drivers earn between $1,000 and $1,100 weekly, or the likelihood of selecting a driver and finding
his or her income is between $1,000and $1,100 is .3413.
This information is summarized in the following diagram
1. In recent years a new type of taxi service has evolved in more than 300 cities worldwide,
where the customer is connected directly with a driver via a smartphone. The idea was
first developed by Uber Technologies, which is headquartered in San Francisco,
California. It uses the Uber mobile app, which allows customers with a smartphone to
submit a trip request which is then routed to a Uber driver who picks up the customer
and takes the customer to the desired location. No cash is involved, the payment for the
transaction is handled via a digital payment. Suppose the weekly income of Uber drivers
follows the normal probability distribution with a mean of $1,000 and a standard
deviation of $100. What is the z value of income for a driver who earns $1,100 per week?
For a driver who earns $900 per week? What is the likelihood of selecting a driver whose
weekly income is between $1,000 and $1,100?
2. A wholesale distributor of fertilizer products finds the annual demand for one type of
fertilizer is normally distributed with a mean of 120 tones and standard deviation of 16
tones. If he orders only once a year, what quantity should be ordered to ensure that there
is only a 5 percent chance of running short? (Given that at the level of 5% chance the
value of Z = 1.64)
3. According to the South Dakota Department of Health, the mean number of hours of TV
viewing per week is higher among adult women than men. A recent study showed
women spent an average of 34 hours per week watching TV and men 29 hours per week.
Assume that the distribution of hours watched follows the normal distribution for both
groups, and that the standard deviation among the women is 4.5 hours and is 5.1 hours
for the men.
i) What percent of the women watch TV less than 40 hours per week?
ii) What percent of the men watch TV more than 25 hours per week?
4. A recent study of the hourly wages of maintenance crew members for major airlines
showed that the mean hourly salary was $20.50, with a standard deviation of $3.50.
Assume the distribution of hourly wages follows the normal probability distribution. If
we select a crew member at random, what is the probability the crew member earns:
i) Between $20.50 and $24.00 per week?
ii) More than $24.00 per week?
iii) Less than $19.00 per week?
5. The heights of students in Rajshahi University are normally distributed with a mean of 66
inches and a standard deviation of 4 inches. What proportion or percentage of the
students in Rajshahi University has a height greater than 72 inches? What is probability
that a student selected at random will has height between 64 inches and 68 inches?
6. The mean inside diameter of a sample of 200 washers produced by a machine is 5.02mm,
and the standard deviation is 0.05mm. The purpose for which these washers are intended
allows a maximum tolerance in the diameter of 4.96 to 5.08 mm; otherwise, the washers
are considered defective. Determine the percentage of defective washers produced by the
machine, assuming that the diameters are normally distributed.
7. The registrar of a university studied the grade point average (GPA) of students over
many years. He has discovered that the distribution is approximately normal with a mean
of 2.80 and a standard deviation of 0.40.
i) What is the probability that a randomly selected student has a GPA of from 2.00
up to 3.00?
ii) What percent of the students have a GPA less than 2.00?
iii) The student population at the university is 10,000. How many students are on the
Dean’s list, that is, have GPAs of 3.70 or higher?