Lecture 4

Probability and Statistics

Ikram-E-Khuda

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Example Probability Problems
1. A factory produces in lot of 200 out of which 20 are defective.
a) If one item is picked randomly from the lot find the probability of it being
non defective
b) If two items are picked randomly from the lot then find the probability of
the following events
i. Both are defective
ii. One is defective
iii. None is defective

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Problem 2
• A box contains 2 white balls, 3 black balls and 4 red balls.

a) In how many ways can 3 balls be drawn from the box, if at least
one black ball is to be included in the draw?

b) What is the probability that 1 black and 2 other colored balls are
drawn

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Example Probability Problems
2. A basket contains 6 red, 8 blue and 4 green balls. Find the probability
of drawing 3 balls randomly from this basket such that we have at least
one ball from each color.

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More Examples

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Example 3
• A large nonprofit corporation wishes to form an
executive leadership team from a group of 6 male
executives and 8 female executives. The team will have
6 members. If the team members are selected
randomly, find the probability of each team described
below.

a) The team has equal numbers of men and women.

b) The team has more than four women.

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Solution
• Sample Space= 14C6 =>3003
A)
3 males and 3 females
(6𝐶3)(8𝐶3) 1120
𝑃 𝐴 = = = 0.373 = 37.3%
14𝐶6 3003
B)
(5females and 1male) or (6 females and 0 male)
8𝐶5 6𝐶1 + (8𝐶6)(6𝐶0) 336 + 28
𝑃 𝐵 = =
14𝐶6 3003
= 0.1212 = 12.12%

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Example 4
• A box contains 2 white balls, 3 black balls and 4 red balls.

a) In how many ways can 3 balls be drawn from the box, if at least
one black ball is to be included in the draw?

b) What is the probability that 1 black and 2 other colored balls are
drawn

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Solution
A)
• Sample Space=S=>
(1Black and 2 other) or (2Black and 1 other) or (3 Black and 0other)

(3C1)(6C2) + (3C2)(6C1) + (3C3)(6C0)

= 45+18+1
=64

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Solution
S= 9C3 = 84
B) 1Black and 2other colors
(3C1)(6C2)=[(3C1)(2C1)(4C1)+(3C1)(2C0)(4C2)+
(3C1)(2C2)(4C0)]
45=24+18+3

(3𝐶1)(6𝐶2) 45
𝑃 𝐵 = = = 0.5357 = 53.57%
9𝐶3 84

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LEcture developed by Ikram-E-Khuda
Example 5
• 4 cards are drawn randomly from a standard deck of 52 cards. Find
the probability of the following events.

a) All 4 cards are of Queens.

b) There is a card from each suit.
c) All 4 cards are of hearts with one being the Jack.

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Solution
A) P(All 4 cards are Queens=A)
4𝐶4 (48𝐶0) 1
𝑃 𝐴 = = = 0.00369%
52𝐶4 270725

B)P(One card from suit=B)

(13𝐶1)(13𝐶1)(13𝐶1)(13𝐶1) 28561
𝑃 𝐵 = =
52𝐶4 270725
= 0.01056 = 1.056%
12𝐶3 1𝐶1 [39𝐶0]
C) 𝑃 𝐶 =
52𝐶4

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Example 6
• In a game of cards consisting of 5 cards (taken
randomly from 52) find the probability of holding

a) 3 aces
b) 4 hearts and one club

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Solution
(4𝐶3)(48𝐶2) 4512
𝑃 𝐴 = = = 0.1736%
52𝐶5 2598960

(13𝐶4)(13𝐶1)(26𝐶0) 9295
𝑃 𝐵 = = = 0.3576%
52𝐶5 2598960

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Rules of Probabilities

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Rules of Addition-Simultaneous Occurrence of
Evens
Case 1: Events are mutually exclusive
𝑷 𝑨𝑼𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨𝒐𝒓𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨 + 𝑷(𝑩)

Case 2: Events are not mutually exclusive

Case 2.1: Probability of atleast one evernt

𝑷 𝑨𝑼𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨 𝒐𝒓𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨 + 𝑷 𝑩 − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)

Case 2.1: Probability of exactly one evernt

𝑷 𝑨𝑼𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨 𝒐𝒓𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨 + 𝑷 𝑩 − 𝟐𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)

In any case:
𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨 𝑷(𝑩) => intersection follows
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by Ikram-E-Khuda
Note!

+ = ∪= 𝑜𝑟

×= 𝑎𝑛𝑑 =∩

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Concept
Suppose we have two sets as follows:
A={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8}

B={3,4,7,9,10,11,12}

𝑨 ∩ 𝑩={3,4,7}
Case 1
A- 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵= only A = {1,2,5,6,8}
B- 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = only B ={9,10,11,12}
Thus by subtracting two times 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵, then only we can get
only A and only B

A- 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩= only A = {1,2,5,6,8}
B={3,4,7,9,10,11,12}

Thus by subtracting one time 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩, then we can get atleast

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A and only B
Example 7
a) A single card is drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards. What is the
probability that it is either a King or an Ace?

b) A single card is drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards. What is

the probability that it is either a spade or an ace?
• => 𝑷 𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑺 =?

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Concept/ Solution

Ks As

Kc Kings Kh Ac Aces Ah

Kd Ad

4𝐶1 4𝐶1 8
𝑃 𝐾 𝑜𝑟 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐾 + 𝑃 𝐴 = + = =15.38%
52𝐶1 52𝐶1 52

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Concept/ Solution
As J As 2
Q
K
Ac Aces Ah 10 Spades 3
9 4
Ad 8 7 6 5

As

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Solution (at least case)
• => 𝑷(𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑺) = 𝑷 𝑨 + 𝑷 𝑺 − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑺)
𝟒 𝟏𝟑 𝟒 𝟏𝟑
• => 𝑷 𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑺 = + × −
𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟐
𝟒 𝟏𝟑 𝟏
𝑷(𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑺) = + −
𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟐
𝟏𝟔
• 𝑷 𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑺 = = 𝟑𝟎. 𝟕𝟔%
𝟓𝟐

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Solution (exactly case)
• => 𝑷(𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑺) = 𝑷 𝑨 + 𝑷 𝑺 − 𝟐𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑺)
𝟒 𝟏𝟑 𝟒 𝟏𝟑
• => 𝑷 𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑺 = + −𝟐 ×
𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟐
𝟒 𝟏𝟑 𝟏
𝑷(𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑺) = + −𝟐
𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟐
𝟏𝟓
• 𝑷 𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑺 = = 𝟐𝟖. 𝟖𝟒%
𝟓𝟐

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More Example(s)

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Example 8
• In a college graduating class of 100 students, 54
study mathematics, 69 study history and 35 study
both mathematics and history. If one of these
students is selected at random, find the probability
of all the possible events.

Maths=M History=H
35
54 69

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Solution (without using formula)
• What are the possible events?
• Only M or,
• Only H or
• Both M and H or
• Neither M nor H

19
P(Only M)=100

34
P(Only H)=100
Start
35
P(Both M and H)=100

12
P(Neither M nor H)=100
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Solution (using with and without formula)
Exactly
Without formula
19 34 53
• P(exactly M or H)= + =
100 100 100

Using formula case 2.2b

54 69 35 53
• P(exactly M or H)= + −2 =
100 100 100 100

Atleast
Without formula
19 34 35 88
• P(at least M or H)= + + =
100 100 100 100

Using formula case 2.2a

54 69 35 88
• P(at least M or H)= + − =
100 100 100 100

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Example 9
• From past experiences a stock broker believes that under present
economic conditions a customer will invest in tax free bonds with a
probability of 0.6, will invest in mutual funds with a probability of
0.3 and will invest in both tax free bonds and mutual funds with a
probability of 0.15. At this time find the probability that a customer
will invest

a) In (at least )either tax free bonds or mutual funds

b) In neither tax free bonds nor mutual funds

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Solution
Let T represent tax free bonds and M represent
mutual funds

a) P(T or M)= P(T)+P(M)-P(T ∩ M)

= 0.6 + 0.3 − 0.15 = 0.75
b) P(E)=1-P(T or M)= 1-0.75=0.25

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Multiplication Rule- Sequential Occurrence of
Events
• When events (lets say A and B) occur sequentially , i.e.
one after the other and both of them are occurring than
there is possibility that either
• The events are independent to each other
• The events are dependent to each other
• Independent Events
P(A and B) = P(A ∩ B)= P(A) P(B)
• Dependent or Conditional Events
P(A and B) = P(A ∩ B)= P(A) P(B|A)

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Example 9
• A bag consists of 3 red and 4 greed colored balls. A ball is drawn
random from the bag, replaced back in the bag and then a second
ball is drawn from the bag. Find the probabilities of all the possible
outcomes of this random experiment.

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We perform a random experiment in two sequences/ trials/ executions (one after the other).
Lets symbolize the possible outcomes of first execution as events being either 𝐴 or 𝐴
Lets symbolize the possible outcomes of second execution as events being either 𝐵 or 𝐵
The two executions are independent to each other

What are the possible events and their probabilities at the end of the random experiment?

P(R∩ R)= 9/49

2nd trial
P(R)=3/7
1st trial
𝑃(𝐵) P(A∩B)= P(A)P(B)
3R
P(R)=3/7 4G P(R∩ G)= 12/49
𝑃(𝐴)
P(A∩ 𝐵)=P(A)P(𝐵) P(G)=4/7
𝑃(𝐵) 3R
start 4G P(R)=3/7
𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵) P(G)=4/7 3R P(G∩ R)= 12/49
𝑃(𝐴) 4G
𝑃(𝐵) P(G)=4/7
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃(𝐵) P(G∩ G)= 16/49
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Solution
There are 7 ways to perform 1 action and 7 ways to perform the 2nd action
Total no. ways to perform both= 7 x 7 =49

At the end of the experiment we have the following possibilities

1) Both red balls => 9 ways
2) One red and one green => 12+12=24
3) Both green balls => 16

The dataset:
X={9 both red balls, 24 one red and one green, 16 both green}
X is a random variable showing the count of red colored balls
X={01………016, 117, ………..140, 241……..249}

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Solution
X={01………016, 117, ………..140, 241……..249}

Class/ groups Frequency Relative

Frequency or P(X)
0 16 16/49
1 24 24/49
2 9 9/49
Total 49 1

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Solution
What is the probability of obtaining a G ball at the end of 2nd trial?

𝟏𝟐 𝟏𝟔 𝟐𝟖
𝑷 𝑮 =𝑷 𝑹∩𝑮 +𝑷 𝑮∩𝑮 = + = = 𝟓𝟕. 𝟏𝟒%
𝟒𝟗 𝟒𝟗 𝟒𝟗

Generalize : Total Marginal Probability

𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

𝑃(𝐵)= 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

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Example 10
A basket contains 3 red and 4 green balls. A random experiment is performed
such that a ball is randomly drawn from the basket , not replaced and then
again a ball is randomly drawn from the basket. If X is a random variable
containing the count of red colored balls, determine the following statistical
parameters:

a) Range
b) All quartiles
c) 15th percentile
d) 8th decile
e) Frequency distribution of X
f) Mean value of X
g) Error in the mean value
h) Predicted outcome

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We perform a random experiment in two sequences/ trials/ executions (one after the other).
Lets symbolize the possible outcomes of first execution as events being either 𝐴 or 𝐴
Lets symbolize the possible outcomes of second execution as events being either 𝐵 or 𝐵
The two executions are dependent to each other

What are the possible events and their probabilities at the end of the random experiment?

P(R∩ R)= 6/42

2nd trial
P(R|R)=2/6
1st trial P(A∩B)= P(A)P(B|A)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
2R
P(R)=3/7 4G P(R∩ G)= 12/42
𝑃(𝐴)
P(A∩ 𝐵)=P(A)P(𝐵|𝐴) P(G|R)=4/6
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) 3R
start 4G P(R|G)=3/6
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) P(G)=4/7 3R P(G∩ R)= 12/42
𝑃(𝐴) 3G
𝑃(𝐵||𝐴) P(G|G)=3/6
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) P(G∩ G)= 12/42
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Problem 7
• Let R is for red and G is for green. Tree diagram to show the events.

Trial 2
Trial 1 End

P(R|R)=2/6 P(R)P(R|R)=P(R and R)=6/42

P(R)=3/7 2R
Start 4G
P(G|R)=4/6 P(R)P(G|R)=P(R and G)=12/42
3R
4G P(R|G)=3/6 P(G)P(R|G)=P(G and R)=12/42
3R
P(G)=4/7 3G
P(G|G)=3/6 =P(G)P(G|R)=P(G and G)=12/42

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Problem 7
Random Variable shows the count of red balls in two trials = X
X=01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,012,113,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,136,237,2,2,2,2,242

Frequency Distribution Table at the end of two trials

Random Frequency Relative

Variable/ Frequency/
Group Probability
(X)

0 4 x 3=12 12/42
1 (3 x 4) + (4 x 3)=24 24/42
2 3 x 2=6 6/42
Total N=7x6=42 1

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Solution
What is the probability of obtaining a G ball at the end of 2nd trial?

𝟏𝟐 𝟏𝟐 𝟐𝟒
𝑷 𝑮 =𝑷 𝑹∩𝑮 +𝑷 𝑮∩𝑮 = + = = 𝟓𝟕. 𝟏𝟒%
𝟒𝟐 𝟒𝟐 𝟒𝟐

Generalize : Total Marginal Probability

𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

𝑃(𝐵)= 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

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