Statistics and Probability q4 Mod13 Drawing Conclusions About Population Proportion Based On Test Statistic Value and Rejection Region V2pdf
Statistics and Probability q4 Mod13 Drawing Conclusions About Population Proportion Based On Test Statistic Value and Rejection Region V2pdf
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Thank you.
What I Need to Know
In conducting a study, the last part of the process is drawing conclusions and it
should be done correctly and carefully. In doing so, you need to learn how to consider
necessary data as your basis and follow different steps.
On the previous lessons, you were already taught how to compute test statistic
concerning population proportions as well as how to determine the rejection or non-
rejection region by using an illustration on a curve.
1. What do you call the part of the sample or the proportion of individuals in a
sample sharing a certain trait?
a. sample mean
b. sample variance
c. sample proportion
d. sample standard deviation
9. What is the relationship between a Type I error and the null hypothesis
(Ho)?
a. A Type I error corresponds to rejecting the null hypothesis when it is
true.
b. A Type I error corresponds to rejecting the null hypothesis when it is
false.
c. A Type I error corresponds to failing to reject the null hypothesis
when it is false.
d. A Type I error corresponds to failing to reject the null hypothesis
when it is true.
11. Researchers used the given data below and the results to test the claim that
more than 50% of adults support the tax increase.
n = 200 𝑝̂ = 56.5
Ho : p = 0.5 Ha : p > 0.5
z ≈ 1.84 P-value of approximately 0.033
15. What is the phrase that best completes the conclusion below?
What’s In
Determine the value of sample proportion (𝑝̂ ) using the given sample size (n)
and the number of elements or observed values (X). Each number has a
corresponding letter below. After you solve for 𝑃̂ , write its corresponding
value and letter on the blanks to decode the secret message. The formula to be
used is provided in the box below.
FORMULA:
𝑋
𝑝̂ =
𝑛
Guide Questions:
1. How did you find the activity?
2. Did you find it easy to decode the secret message?
3. What is the range of values of your answer to each item?
4. What do you mean by 𝑝̂ ?
5. How did you get the value of 𝑝̂ in each item?
What is It
In drawing conclusions, there are two different approaches that you may apply: the
critical z-approach (computed z-value) and the P-value approach.
Determine if the test statistic falls in the rejection region. If it does, reject
the null hypothesis. If it does not, do not reject the null hypothesis.
❖ If the computed z-statistic (zcom) is > or < the tabular value (ztab), reject
the null hypothesis (Ho).
❖ If the computed z-statistic (zcom) falls in the rejection region, reject the
null hypothesis (Ho).
❖ If the computed z-statistic (zcom) does not fall in the rejection region,
fail to reject the null hypothesis (Ho).
Example 1
a. Ho : p = 0.85
Ha : p < 0.85
b. Level of Significance: α = 0.01
c. Computed Test Statistic:
Given: X = 325 p = 0.85 n = 400
𝑋
𝑝̂ = 𝑛
325
= 400
̂=
𝒑 0.81
𝑝̂−𝑝
z= 𝑝(1−𝑝)
√
𝑛
0.81−0.85
= 0.85 (1−0.85)
√
400
z = -2.24
Using the Areas Under the Normal Curve Table, the critical value is
-2.326 at α = 0.01 level. There is a negative sign in the value due to the
direction of the alternative hypothesis.
d. DECISION: Since the computed test statistic (zcom) z = -2.24 does not fall in
the rejection region, fail to reject the null hypothesis (Ho).
P-VALUE APPROACH
What is P-value?
In critical value approach, a test statistic is compared with a critical value. However,
in p-value approach (short for probability value), probabilities or areas are compared.
P-value measures the consistency of the sample statistics with the null hypothesis.
High P-values mean that sample results are consistent with a true null hypothesis
while low P-values are not consistent. If the P value is small enough, we can conclude
that the sample is so incompatible with the null hypothesis. Therefore, we can reject
the null hypothesis for the entire population.
Illustrative Example:
Given:
Ho: p = 0.5 = 0.05 n= 25,468
Ha: p > 0.5
Solution:
Using the formula:
𝑝̂−𝑝
z =
𝑝 ( 1−𝑝 )
√
𝑛
0.5172− 0.5
z =
(0.5)(0.5) )
√
25468
z = 5.49
The p-value is represented in the graph below:
P=P(Z≥5.49)=0.0000⋯≈0
CONCLUSION: Because the p-value is smaller than the significance
level α=0.05, we can reject the null hypothesis. Again, we
would say that there is sufficient/enough evidence to
conclude that boys are more common than girls in the
entire population at α=0.05 level.
As should always be the case, the two approaches (critical value approach and
p-value approach) lead to the same conclusion.
Example 2
Given:
a. n= 150
b. = 0.1 significance level
c. Ho : The proportion of households that have three or more cell phones is
30%. (Ho : p = 0.3)
Ha : The proportion of households that have three or more cell phones is
different from 30%. (Ha : p ≠ 0.3)
d. 𝑝̂ = 0.287
e. Zcom = 0.347
NOTE:
Conclusions are answers in sentence form which include: 1) whether there is
enough evidence or not (based on the decision); 2) the level of significance; and 3)
whether the original claim is supported or rejected.
Conclusions are based on the original claim which may be the null or
alternative hypothesis. The decisions are always based on the null hypothesis.
H0 Ha
Decision "REJECT" "SUPPORT"
NOTE:
If the null hypothesis isn’t rejected, this doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s
true. It simply means that there is not enough evidence to justify rejecting it.
1. In a public senior high school, a survey conducted last year by a Health Officer
showed that 12% of the students drink alcohol. This year, a new survey was
conducted randomly on 500 students from the same school. It was found that
97 of them drink alcohol. Test if the claim was higher at α = 0.01 level.
a. Ho : p = 0.12
Ha : p < 0.12
b. Level of Significance: α = 0.01
c. Computed Test Statistic: zcom = ______
d. Critical Value: 2.326
e. DECISION: Since the computed test statistic zcom = ____ falls in the
rejection region, _________________ the null hypothesis (Ho).
2. A research states that 28% of college degrees are from engineering courses. A
researcher doesn’t believe that this is correct. A sample of 1,000 graduates
was used and it was found out that 295 have finished engineering courses.
Test the claim if it has increased at α = 0.10 level. What is the correct null
hypothesis?
a. Ho : p = 0.28
Ha : p > 0.28
b. Level of Significance: α = 0.10
c. Computed Test Statistic: zcom = ____
d. Critical Value: 1.282
e. DECISION: Since the computed test statistic zcom = ____ does not fall
in the rejection region, _________________ the null hypothesis (H o).
Guide:
Given:
Problem 1
Given:
What I Can Do
Read job vacancies posts on the classified ads section of a newspaper. Then, draw
conclusions about the type of people who will apply foreach job. Write your
conclusions based on facts and include the newspaper clippings where you got the
information. You will be graded using the given rubric below.
RUBRIC
CATEGORY 4 3 2 1
Grammar & There are no There are 1-3 There are 4-6 There are
Spelling errors in errors in errors in more than 6
grammar or grammar or grammar or errors in
spelling. spelling. spelling. grammar or
spelling.
Assessment
Choose the best answer to the given questions or statements. Write the
letter of your choice on a separate sheet of paper.
Suppose a study found that 68% of the population owns a home. In a random
sample of 150 households, 92 own a home. Use α = 0.01 to determine that there is
a decrease in the proportion of population that owns a home.
Directions: Read and analyze the following statements. Write ACCEPT if the
statement is correct and write REJECT if it is incorrect. Write your
answer on a sheet of paper.
Books
Albacea, Zita VJ., Mark John V. Ayaay, Isidoro P. David, and Imelda E. De Mesa.
Teaching Guide for Senior High School: Statistics and Probability. Quezon City:
Commission on Higher Education, 2016.
De Guzman, Danilo. Statistics and Probability. Quezon City: C & E Publishing Inc.,
2017.
Punzalan, Joyce Raymond B. Senior High School Statistics and Probability. Malaysia:
Oxford Publishing, 2018.
Sirug, Winston S. Statistics and Probability for Senior High School CORE Subject A
Comprehensive Approach K to 12 Curriculum Compliant. Manila: Mindshapers
Co., Inc., 2017.
Online Resources
https://people.richland.edu/james/lecture/m170/ch09-int.html
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/ap-statistics/tests-significance-ap/one-
sample-z-test-proportion/v/comparing-p-value-to-significance-level-example